The overall lending rate rose to 15.54% in September 2026 and the overall time deposit rate to 9.02%, after the Central Bank Rate (CBR) was lifted to 6.25%. Yet private credit grew 34.2%. This page tracks lending and deposit rates by tenor and currency, the spread between them, how they follow policy and government securities yields, and what they mean for borrowers, savers and banks, using the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (rates data Sep 2025 – Sep 2026).
📅 Period: Sep 2025 – Sep 2026 · 🏛️ TICGL / TERI Economic Research Division · Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.2.2, 2.3.1, A1, A4); NBS. Spreads, real rates and loan costs are TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. Rates are BoT bank-survey averages for domestic currency unless labelled foreign currency. "pp" = percentage points.
Lending rates are high and slow-moving. The overall lending rate was 15.18% in September 2025 and 15.54% a year later (+0.36pp), despite a 0.50pp rise in the policy rate. Negotiated rates for prime borrowers fell 0.81pp to 12.03%.
Deposit rates rose faster. Overall time deposits climbed from 8.50% to 9.02% (+0.53pp), but savings accounts still pay only 2.95%, below the 4.3% inflation rate.
Credit is not rate-constrained. Private credit expanded 34.2%, led by transport and communication (+78.3%), trade (+52.5%) and agriculture (+41.9%). Banks also hold more government securities (TZS 12.1 trillion, +38.2% y/y), earning 4.85% on bills and 9.5–11.5% on bonds.
| Rate (%) | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall lending rate | 15.18 | 15.05 | 15.54 | +0.36pp |
| Negotiated lending rate | 12.84 | 11.93 | 12.03 | −0.81pp |
| Overall time deposit rate | 8.50 | 8.78 | 9.03 | +0.53pp |
| 12-month deposit rate | 9.84 | 9.36 | 9.59 | −0.25pp |
| Savings deposit rate | 2.92 | 2.77 | 2.95 | +0.03pp |
| Repo rate (CBR) | 4.79 | 6.25 | 6.25 | +1.46pp |
Table 0.1. Source: BoT, Table A4 (Table 2.3.1 text gives the overall time deposit rate as 9.02%; Table A4 shows 9.03%). Changes are TICGL calc.
| Lending rate (%) | Sep-25 | Jun-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short-term (up to 1 year) | 15.52 | 15.38 | 15.31 | 15.36 |
| Medium-term (1–2 years) | 16.26 | 17.10 | 16.53 | 16.88 |
| Medium-term (2–3 years) | 15.19 | 15.19 | 15.02 | 16.02 |
| Long-term (3–5 years) | 14.26 | 14.38 | 14.44 | 15.14 |
| Term loans (over 5 years) | 14.66 | 14.03 | 13.93 | 14.31 |
| Foreign currency, overall | 8.43 | 9.03 | 8.96 | 9.17 |
Table 1.1. Source: BoT, Table A4.
Long-term and term loans (over 5 years) are cheaper than short-term loans, a flat-to-inverted pattern that rewards long projects, but the September repricing shows banks passing the CBR increase into 2–5 year loans first. Long-term lending also fell from 17.4% (2018) to 14.4% (2025) on an annual basis.
| Deposit rate (%) | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Real rate (4.3% inflation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savings | 2.92 | 2.77 | 2.95 | −1.35pp |
| Overall time deposits | 8.50 | 8.78 | 9.03 | +4.7pp |
| 12 months | 9.84 | 9.36 | 9.59 | +5.3pp |
| Negotiated | 11.05 | 11.06 | 11.00 | +6.7pp |
| Foreign currency time deposits | 3.94 | 4.12 | 4.14 | n/a |
Table 2.1. Source: BoT, Table A4; real rates TICGL calc. (nominal less headline inflation 4.3%).
The short-term spread (lending less deposit, BoT measure) narrowed from 5.95pp to 5.78pp in September, but the overall lending-to-time-deposit gap is 6.52pp and the gap to savings is 12.6pp. Small savers carry negative real returns while negotiated depositors earn about 6.7%.
| Credit and money | Sep-25 | Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|
| Private credit stock (TZS bn) | 41,999.9 | 56,359.4 |
| Private credit growth, y/y (%) | 16.1 | 34.2 |
| M3 growth, y/y (%) | 20.4 | 25.9 |
| Securities held by banks (TZS bn) | 8,723.1 | 12,056.9 |
| Reverse repo transactions (TZS bn) | n/a | 2,624.5 |
Table 3.1. Source: BoT, Tables 2.2.1 and text; securities held by banks +38.2% y/y.
The CBR rose 1.46pp over the year but bank lending rates moved 0.36pp: the policy rate sets a floor, while the 15% lending band reflects credit risk, funding costs and ample liquidity (reverse repo demand fell). The September bump in 2–5 year loan rates suggests delayed pass-through.
Defaults: TZS 100 million, overall lending rate vs negotiated rate (Sep-26), 5 years, monthly repayment (annuity).
Rates are high but stable; the pressure point is pass-through and access. Priorities: widen access to negotiated-rate credit through credit guarantees and registries, lift real returns for small savers, and let long-term financing (over 5 years, 14.3%) fund infrastructure and PPP projects.
TICGL/TERI builds financial models, cost-of-capital and DSCR analysis, and bankable PPP project structures. Contact economist@ticgl.com.
Source. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.2.1, 2.2.2, 2.3.1, A1, A4; Chart 2.2.6; text on Treasury auctions and the Monetary Policy Committee's July 2026 decision). Calculations. Spreads, real rates (nominal less headline inflation of 4.3%), changes and loan costs are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. The "short-term spread" quoted by BoT differs from the overall lending-less-time-deposit gap used here. Annual averages in Table A1 differ from monthly survey rates. Data marked provisional may be revised. Credit shares cover select activities only.
The overall lending rate was 15.54%, up from 15.05% in August. Negotiated rates charged to prime borrowers were 12.03%.
The overall time deposit rate was 9.02%, the 12-month deposit rate 9.59%, the negotiated deposit rate 11.00% and the savings rate 2.95%.
The CBR is 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, raised from 5.75% in July to contain second-round inflation pressures.
Private sector credit grew 34.2% year on year in September 2026, driven by transport and communication (78.3%), trade (52.5%) and agriculture (41.9%), as business demand for finance outran the cost of borrowing.
Viwango vya riba Tanzania, Septemba 2026: riba ya mikopo ni ya juu na haibadiliki haraka, wakati riba za amana zinaongezeka polepole.
Mikopo: riba ya jumla ya mikopo ilipanda hadi asilimia 15.54 (Agosti 15.05); riba ya mikopo ya majadiliano kwa wakopaji wakubwa ni asilimia 12.03. Mikopo ya miaka 1–2 ni ghali zaidi (16.88%).
Amana: riba ya jumla ya amana za muda asilimia 9.02, amana za miezi 12 asilimia 9.59, amana za majadiliano asilimia 11.00, na akiba asilimia 2.95, chini ya mfumuko wa bei wa asilimia 4.3.
Sera: Kiwango cha Benki Kuu (CBR) kimepandishwa hadi asilimia 6.25. Hata hivyo, mikopo kwa sekta binafsi imekua asilimia 34.2, ikiongozwa na usafirishaji na mawasiliano (78.3%), biashara (52.5%) na kilimo (41.9%).
Mapendekezo: kupanua upatikanaji wa mikopo ya riba nafuu kupitia dhamana za mikopo, kuongeza faida halisi kwa wanaoweka akiba ndogo, na kuhimiza mikopo ya muda mrefu kwa miradi ya miundombinu na PPP.
Chanzo: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Wasiliana: economist@ticgl.com.
The shilling averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD in September 2026, marginally stronger than August, yet 7.4% weaker than a year earlier. National debt reached USD 52.34 billion, and every dollar of external debt is owed in foreign currency. This page tests shilling stability against the debt stock, its currency and creditor mix, debt service, arrears, the external balance and the monetary stance, using the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (data to September 2026).
📅 Data: Sep 2025 – Sep 2026 · 🏛️ TICGL / TERI Economic Research Division · Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026; NBS; Ministry of Finance; TRA. Indexes, ratios and sums are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on published figures.
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. "y/y" is September 2026 against September 2025. Shilling depreciation is measured as the rise in TZS per USD.
The shilling is stable in the short run but not in the 12-month view. It gained 0.08% on August (2,657.01 to 2,654.91), yet end-period TZS per USD rose from 2,442.8 (Sep-25) to 2,642.3 (Sep-26), about 8.2% weaker.
National debt grew modestly in dollars but faster in shillings. Total debt rose 4.9% to USD 52,344.2M; external debt (70.3%) rose 6.6% in USD but about 15.3% in TZS terms because of depreciation (TICGL calc.).
The weak spot is arrears, not the headline stock. External arrears doubled from USD 584M to USD 1,197M, led by private-sector commercial debt, while the current account deficit widened to USD 2.40B. Reserves of USD 6.03B (4.3 months) remain above the benchmark.
| Indicator | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TZS per USD (end of period) | 2,442.8 | 2,639.9 | 2,642.3 | Flat m/m; +8.2% y/y |
| Total national debt (USD M) | 49,918.0 | 52,341.1 | 52,344.2 | +4.9% y/y |
| External debt stock (USD M) | 34,510.1 | 36,848.2 | 36,784.2 | +6.6% y/y |
| External arrears (USD M) | 584.1 | 1,065.6 | 1,197.4 | Doubled in 12 months |
| Central Bank Rate (%) | 5.75 | 6.25 | 6.25 | Raised in July 2026 |
| Headline inflation (%) | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | Inside 3–5% target |
Table 0.1. Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026; TICGL/TERI calc.
Foreign exchange conditions stayed calm in September, supported by commodity export and tourism inflows. The annual 7.4% depreciation largely reflects a base effect, as the shilling appreciated sharply in September 2025. Since then it has weakened steadily as oil prices rose from March 2026.
| Shilling defence indicator | Sep-26 reading |
|---|---|
| Average rate | TZS 2,654.91 per USD (Aug: 2,657.01) |
| Interbank FX turnover | USD 151.7M; BoT net sales USD 7.2M |
| Reserves | USD 6,031.9M, 4.3 months of projected imports, above national benchmark; supported by BoT gold purchases |
| Policy stance | CBR 6.25%; IBCM rate 6.67%; corridor 4.75–7.75% |
| Market reform | Electronic Matching System (May 2026); Government securities opened to foreign investors (17 Jul 2026) |
Intervention was light, so month-to-month stability reflects genuine balance. But the eight-percent drift since September 2025 shows the shilling responds to the oil and import shock with a lag.
| External debt by creditor (USD M) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multilateral | 20,230.1 | 21,892.2 | 59.5% |
| Commercial | 12,042.8 | 12,677.7 | 34.5% |
| Bilateral | 1,559.3 | 1,547.4 | 4.2% |
| Export credit | 677.8 | 666.9 | 1.8% |
| External debt stock | 34,510.1 | 36,784.2 | 100% |
| Borrower / instrument | Sep-26 | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Central government (USD M) | 30,695.7 | 83.4% of external debt |
| Private sector (USD M) | 6,088.5 | 16.6%; interest arrears USD 249.3M (Sep-25: 103.6) |
| Government bonds (TZS bn) | 34,795.6 | 84.6% of domestic debt |
| Treasury bills (TZS bn) | 1,896.4 | 4.6% |
| Overdraft (TZS bn) | 4,285.8 | 10.4% |
Tables 2.1–2.2. Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026.
The stock is mostly concessional-leaning (multilateral 59.5%), but arrears nearly doubled, with commercial principal arrears at USD 549.6M (Sep-25: 184.5). Domestic debt grew 8.7% in TZS from September 2025, while its dollar value rose only about 1%.
| Metric (TICGL/TERI calc.) | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| External debt in TZS, Sep-25 | TZS 84.3 tn | USD 34,510.1M × 2,442.8 |
| External debt in TZS, Sep-26 | TZS 97.2 tn (+15.3%) | USD 36,784.2M × 2,642.3 |
| Of which exchange-rate effect | +8.2% | Rest is +6.6% new borrowing |
| External debt service, 12 months | USD 2,658M | Principal 1,915; interest 743 |
| Debt service ÷ exports of goods and services | ≈12.6% | Exports USD 21,065.1M |
Defaults: Sep-26 external debt, 12-month debt service and end-period rate.
Because the stock is 100% foreign-currency, a further 5% depreciation would add about TZS 4.9 trillion to external debt and about TZS 350 billion a year to service. Reserve cover, concessional creditors and rising gold earnings (USD 5.8B, up from 4.4B) are the buffers.
| July 2026 central government (TZS M) | Estimate | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue (incl. LGAs) | 3,198,357 | 3,502,199 |
| Tax revenue | 2,574,527 | 2,877,010 |
| Total expenditure | 3,376,922 | 3,572,478 |
| Domestic interest payments | 192,159 | 383,782 |
| Foreign interest payments | 230,326 | 181,141 |
The shilling is stable enough for now, but debt sustainability depends on arrears clearance, export earnings and oil. Priorities: settle arrears, favour concessional and shilling-denominated funding (foreign access to bonds helps), and build reserves while gold prices are high.
TICGL/TERI provides debt-sustainability analysis, FX-risk modelling, PPP structuring and bankable project preparation. Contact economist@ticgl.com.
Source. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.1–2.7, A1–A10), with NBS, Ministry of Finance, TRA and World Bank data as cited there. Calculations. Indexes, TZS values of debt, 12-month debt service, ratios and sensitivities are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. TZS value of debt uses end-period exchange rates from Table A10; domestic debt in USD is BoT's series. Section 2 uses disbursed outstanding debt (DOD) for creditor splits; the arrears chart is separate. The annual depreciation of 7.4% is BoT's average-rate measure; 8.2% is the end-period change. Provisional (p) and revised (r) data may change.
Stable month to month, weaker over the year. It averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD in September 2026 against 2,657.01 in August, but depreciated 7.4% year on year, partly a base effect.
USD 52,344.2 million at end-September 2026: external USD 36,784.2 million (70.3%) and domestic TZS 41,113.5 billion (about USD 15,560 million).
All external debt is in foreign currency (USD 65.3%, euro 18.1%, yuan 6.7%, other 10.0%), so each depreciation raises its cost in shillings and the shilling cost of servicing it.
Yes. Arrears rose from USD 584.1 million in September 2025 to USD 1,197.4 million in September 2026, led by private-sector commercial debt.
Je, shilingi ya Tanzania ni imara wakati deni la taifa linaongezeka? Kulingana na Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya BoT (Oktoba 2026): shilingi ni tulivu kwa mwezi, lakini dhaifu kwa mwaka.
Shilingi: wastani wa TZS 2,654.91 kwa USD Septemba 2026 (Agosti 2,657.01); imeshuka thamani kwa asilimia 7.4 kwa mwaka, kwa kiasi kikubwa kutokana na athari ya msingi. Akiba ya fedha za kigeni USD milioni 6,031.9, inatosha miezi 4.3 ya uagizaji.
Deni la taifa: USD milioni 52,344.2 (ongezeko la asilimia 4.9). Deni la nje USD milioni 36,784.2 (asilimia 70.3), lote kwa fedha za kigeni (USD asilimia 65.3, euro 18.1). Deni la ndani TZS bilioni 41,113.5.
Hatari kuu: thamani ya deni la nje kwa shilingi imepanda takriban asilimia 15.3, na malimbikizo ya deni la nje yameongezeka maradufu hadi USD milioni 1,197.4. Nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa ni USD milioni 2,397.5; bei ya mafuta ilifika USD 102.3 kwa pipa.
Sera: Kiwango cha Benki Kuu (CBR) 6.25%; mfumuko wa bei 4.3%, ndani ya lengo la 3–5%. Mapendekezo: kulipa malimbikizo, kupendelea mikopo nafuu na ya shilingi, na kuimarisha akiba wakati bei ya dhahabu iko juu.
Chanzo: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Wasiliana: economist@ticgl.com.
Headline inflation sits at 4.3%, inside the 3-5% target, yet the shilling has lost about 8% against the US dollar in a year, core inflation has nearly doubled from 2.2% to 4.1% and the Bank of Tanzania has raised its rate to 6.25%. This page reads the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 through one lens: how exchange-rate weakness, imported energy and monetary policy interact with domestic prices.
Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (NBS, Ministry of Finance, TRA data). Real rates, depreciation percentages and indexes are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on published figures.
Inflation is anchored, but no longer narrow. Headline inflation held at 4.3% in September 2026 (3.4% a year earlier), but the rise was in core prices (4.1%, up from 2.2%), transport (14.0%) and energy (7.8%), while food inflation fell from 7.0% to 3.9%.
The shilling is the transmission channel. It averaged TZS 2,654.91/USD, about 7.4% weaker year on year (8.2% end-period), roughly twice the inflation rate, as oil rose to USD 102.3 a barrel and the import bill swelled.
Policy tightened. The CBR rose to 6.25%; real policy rate is about +1.9 points. Credit (+34.2%) and M3 (+25.9%) are growing fast, a second reason to stay vigilant.
| Test | Evidence | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Anchor | 4.3% inside 3-5%; below EAC ceiling 8% | Holding |
| Breadth | Core 2.2% to 4.1%; services 1.3% to 6.1% | Broadening |
| Currency | TZS -7.4% y/y (avg); BoT sold only USD 7.2M in Sep | Orderly depreciation |
| External | CA deficit +28%; reserves 4.3 months | Adequate, thinner |
Annual inflation was flat at 4.3% in August and September. Under the surface, the driver moved from food (2025) to energy, transport and services (2026).
| Group (annual %) | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Core | 2.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 7.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| Transport | 2.1 | 13.8 | 14.0 |
| Energy, fuel and utilities | 3.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Services | 1.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 |
| Goods | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Restaurants and accommodation | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
Table 1.1. Source: NBS and BoT, Table 2.1.1. Zanzibar headline inflation eased to 4.3% from 5.6% in August (target 5%).
The shilling averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD in September 2026 (2,657.01 in August), a marginal gain on the month. On an annual basis it is about 7.4% weaker, largely a base effect after a sharp appreciation in September 2025. Foreign exchange conditions were stable, with turnover of USD 151.7 million supported by gold, commodity and tourism inflows.
| Year | Inflation % | Avg TZS/USD | End-period TZS/USD | CA balance (USD M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.3 | 2,303.0 | 2,308.9 | -5,482.2 |
| 2023 | 3.8 | 2,382.1 | 2,501.4 | -2,960.6 |
| 2024 | 3.1 | 2,597.4 | 2,374.7 | -2,379.8 |
| 2025 | 3.3 | 2,537.6 | 2,450.2 | -2,049.4 |
| Sep-2026 | 4.3 | 2,654.9 | 2,642.3 | -2,397.5 (12m) |
The MPC raised the CBR to 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026 from 5.75%, aiming to contain second-round effects from energy, fertilizer and transport costs. The 7-day interbank rate stayed within the 4.75-7.75% corridor, ending at 6.67% overall.
| Rate (Sep-26) | Nominal % | Real % |
|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Rate | 6.25 | +1.95 |
| Overall T-bill yield | 4.85 | +0.55 |
| 10-year bond | 10.69 | +6.39 |
| Overall lending rate | 15.54 | +11.24 |
| 12-month deposit rate | 9.59 | +5.29 |
| Savings deposit rate | 2.95 | -1.35 |
| Indicator (USD M) | 2025 | 2026p | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports of goods and services | 17,568.9 | 21,065.1 | +19.9% |
| Imports of goods and services | 17,848.9 | 22,134.2 | +24.0% |
| Gold exports | 4,431.2 | 5,834.5 | +31.7% |
| Petroleum imports | 2,213.1 | 3,813.6 | +72.3% |
| Current account balance | -1,879.3 | -2,397.5 | +27.6% |
| Gross reserves | - | 6,031.9 | 4.3 months |
| Driver | Risk to shilling and prices | Indicator |
|---|---|---|
| Middle East energy | Higher fuel and fertilizer costs; wider CA deficit | Oil (USD 102.3), transport CPI |
| El Niño (Vuli rains) | Food supply shocks end the food-price cushion | NFRA stocks, wholesale prices |
| Capital flows | Foreign bond access can cut or amplify FX swings | Reserves, BoT FX sales |
| Credit boom | 34% credit growth feeds demand and imports | Private credit, M3 |
| Exports | Gold, tourism and manufacturing offset imports | Gold price (USD 4,319) |
Headline inflation was 4.3%, unchanged from August and inside the 3-5% target. Core was 4.1%, food 3.9% and energy 7.8%.
It averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD, about 7.4% weaker year on year; end-period it moved from 2,442.8 to 2,642.3 (about 8.2%).
6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, up from 5.75%, to contain second-round inflation from energy, fertilizer and transport costs.
Yes, to USD 2,397.5 million in the year to September 2026 from USD 1,879.3 million; reserves of USD 6,031.9 million cover 4.3 months of imports.
Je, shilingi ya Tanzania na mfumuko wa bei vinaelekea wapi? Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu (Oktoba 2026): mfumuko wa bei ulikuwa asilimia 4.3 Septemba 2026, ndani ya lengo la asilimia 3-5, lakini shilingi imedhoofika kwa takriban asilimia 7.4 (wastani) kwa mwaka, ikiuzwa wastani wa TZS 2,654.91 kwa dola.
Chanzo: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.
Treasury auctions in September 2026 were oversubscribed, yields sit 1.5 to 3 points below a year ago, domestic debt reached TZS 41.1 trillion and the interbank market traded TZS 4.8 trillion at 6.67%. This page reads the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 to show who funds the Government, at what price, and how liquidity moves between banks, as foreign investors gain access to shilling bonds.
Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.6.5-2.6.6, A4, Charts 2.4.1-2.4.2, 2.6.1-2.6.2). Bid cover, real yields, spreads and growth rates are TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Demand is strong. Treasury bill auctions drew bids of TZS 1,205B against a TZS 678.3B tender (1.8x); bond auctions drew TZS 1,267.2B against TZS 535.8B (2.4x). The Government accepted TZS 654.6B of bills and TZS 489.7B of bonds.
Yields fell sharply over the year. The overall T-bill yield is 4.85% (6.03% in Sep-25); the 10-year bond is 10.69% (13.74%). But the 364-day bill has risen since March (5.80% to 6.38%) as the BoT tightened.
Debt is bond-heavy and bank/pension-funded. Bonds are 84.6% of the TZS 41,113.5B stock; commercial banks and pension funds hold 55.9%. The overdraft share fell from 13.2% to 10.4%.
The interbank market is calm. Overall rate 6.67% inside the 4.75-7.75% corridor; turnover TZS 4,791.7B; reverse repo demand fell to TZS 2,624.5B on ample liquidity.
| Test | Evidence | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Demand | Bid cover 1.8x bills, 2.4x bonds | Strong |
| Price | T-bill 6.03% to 4.85%; 10y 13.74% to 10.69% | Cheaper funding |
| Structure | Bonds 84.6% of debt; bills 4.6% | Long-dated |
| Liquidity | IBCM 6.67%; reverse repo down 14% | Ample, stable |
In September the BoT ran two Treasury bill auctions (combined tender TZS 678.3B) and three bond auctions: 5-year (TZS 145.6B), 10-year (TZS 182.9B) and 15-year (TZS 207.3B). Government raised TZS 356B (TZS 178B bonds, TZS 178B 364-day bills) against domestic debt service of TZS 556.4B (principal 250.8B, interest 305.6B).
| Sep-2026 | Tender (TZS B) | Bids (TZS B) | Accepted (TZS B) | Bid cover | Accepted / tender |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury bills | 678.3 | 1,205.0 | 654.6 | 1.78x | 96.5% |
| Treasury bonds | 535.8 | 1,267.2 | 489.7 | 2.36x | 91.4% |
Table 1.1. Source: BoT; TICGL/TERI calc. Bond tender is the sum of the three auctions.
Between September 2025 and September 2026 the curve fell at almost every tenor, most at the short end (35-day bills from 6.20% to 2.41%) and in 10-15 year bonds (about 3 points). Yet 364-day bills rose, so the bill curve steepened.
| Tenor | Sep-25 % | Sep-26 % | Change (pp) | Real (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35-day | 6.20 | 2.41 | -3.79 | -1.89 |
| 91-day | 6.81 | 3.40 | -3.41 | -0.90 |
| 364-day | 5.99 | 6.38 | +0.39 | +2.08 |
| 5-year | 12.48 | 9.53 | -2.95 | +5.23 |
| 10-year | 13.74 | 10.69 | -3.05 | +6.39 |
| 15-year | 13.91 | 10.79 | -3.12 | +6.49 |
| 25-year | 13.19 | 11.48 | -1.71 | +7.18 |
The domestic debt stock reached TZS 41,113.5B at end-September 2026, a marginal rise from TZS 40,899.5B in August. Commercial banks and pension funds hold more than half.
| Holder (TZS B) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Share Sep-26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial banks | 10,752.0 | 11,703.1 | 28.5% | +8.8% |
| Pension funds | 10,282.0 | 11,256.1 | 27.4% | +9.5% |
| Bank of Tanzania | 6,750.9 | 7,163.8 | 17.4% | +6.1% |
| Insurance | 1,825.1 | 2,030.1 | 4.9% | +11.2% |
| Others (incl. non-residents) | 7,068.6 | 8,095.4 | 19.7% | +14.5% |
| Total | 37,459.0 | 41,113.5 | 100% | +9.8% |
Total interbank transactions rose to TZS 4,791.7B in September from TZS 4,566.2B, with the 7-day tenor taking 62%. The overall rate stayed at 6.67%. The BoT's reverse repo auctions fell to TZS 2,624.5B from TZS 3,037.4B on elevated system liquidity. Policy rate corridor: 4.75% to 7.75% (Lombard rate 7.75%, repo and reverse repo 6.25%, discount rate 8.75%).
| Interbank rate (%) | Sep-25 | Jun-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overnight | 6.29 | 5.53 | 6.37 | 6.26 |
| 2 to 7 days | 6.43 | 5.90 | 6.45 | 6.56 |
| 8 to 14 days | 6.93 | 6.46 | 7.09 | 7.06 |
| Overall | 6.45 | 6.00 | 6.67 | 6.67 |
Government Notice No. 206 of 2026 (Foreign Exchange Amendment Regulations, 17 July 2026) removed geographic restrictions and the minimum holding period for Government securities, completing a gradual capital-account liberalisation.
| Year | Step |
|---|---|
| 2014 | EAC residents allowed limited access (40% ceiling per issue, 12-month holding) |
| 2022 | SADC residents and diaspora added; holding period cut to six months |
| Jan 2025 | Competitive Treasury bond auctions begin |
| May 2026 | Electronic Matching System for the interbank FX market |
| Jul 2026 | Government securities opened to all foreign investors |
| Aug 2026 | Tanzania Sovereign Yield Curve launched |
| Watch | Why it matters | Indicator |
|---|---|---|
| Next MPC decision | Inflation 4.3%, oil USD 102.3: bias is firm | CBR, corridor |
| Foreign participation | New demand but flight risk | Non-resident share ("others") |
| Bond supply | Heavy issuance could lift 15-year yields | Accepted vs tender |
| Bank liquidity | Credit +34.2% competes with securities | IBCM turnover, reverse repo |
4.85% overall, unchanged from August; 35-day 2.41%, 91-day 3.40%, 182-day 5.11%, 364-day 6.38%.
5-year 9.53%, 10-year 10.69% and 15-year 10.79%. Auctions of TZS 535.8 billion drew TZS 1,267.2 billion of bids and TZS 489.7 billion was accepted.
TZS 41,113.5 billion at end-September 2026; securities are 89.6% of it and banks plus pension funds hold 55.9%.
6.67% overall in September 2026, inside the 4.75-7.75% corridor; turnover TZS 4,791.7 billion with the 7-day tenor at 62%.
Soko la dhamana za serikali na soko la fedha kati ya benki (interbank) linaendeleaje? Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu (Oktoba 2026), minada ya Septemba 2026 ilipata mahitaji makubwa: hati fungani za Hazina (T-bills) zilipokea zabuni za TZS bilioni 1,205 dhidi ya bilioni 678.3, na hatifungani (bonds) bilioni 1,267.2 dhidi ya bilioni 535.8.
Chanzo: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.
The current account deficit widened 27.6% to USD 2,397.5 million in the year to September 2026 as goods imports outran exports. Services helped: receipts reached USD 8,620.2 million, payments only USD 3,448.1 million. Beneath that, the source of growth changed: transport earnings jumped 30% while travel (tourism) rose just 4%. This page reads Section 2.7 of the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026, focusing on the current account, services receipts by category and services payments.
Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (TRA, banks, BoT computations; Table 2.7.1, Charts 2.7.2-2.7.5, Tables A5-A7). Shares, net balances, coverage ratios and growth contributions are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. "Year to September" = year ending September.
The deficit widened. The current account deficit rose to USD 2,397.5M from USD 1,879.3M as imports of goods and services grew 24.0% against 19.9% for exports. The goods deficit reached USD 6,241.2M (+35.8%); petroleum imports jumped 72.3% to USD 3,813.6M.
Services are the shock absorber. The services surplus rose 19.8% to USD 5,172.2M and covered about 83% of the goods deficit (47% in 2021).
But the engine changed. Of the USD 1,111.9M rise in service receipts, transport supplied 73% and travel only 16%. Travel receipts grew 4.1% to USD 4,565.8M; transport grew 30.3% to USD 3,478.7M on transit-trade freight.
Payments are contained. Service payments rose 8.0%, with freight up 25.8% offset by lower travel and other-services outflows. September alone showed a monthly current account surplus of USD 421.2M.
| Test | Evidence | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Balance | CA -USD 2,397.5M (+27.6% wider) | Deteriorating |
| Services cover | Surplus = 83% of goods deficit | Strong buffer |
| Mix | Transport 73% of receipts growth; travel 16% | Shifting |
| Buffer | Reserves USD 6.0B, 4.3 months | Adequate |
The external sector faces headwinds from Middle East tensions: import growth outpaced exports, though strong exports partly cushioned the deficit. The goods and services deficit widened to USD 1,069.0M from USD 280.4M; the primary income deficit (payments to non-residents) stayed near USD 2.1B and the secondary income surplus rose 60.4% to USD 761.4M on personal transfers.
| USD million | Yr to Sep-24 | Yr to Sep-25 | Yr to Sep-26p | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goods account | -5,928.7 | -4,596.3 | -6,241.2 | +35.8% |
| Services account | 4,062.9 | 4,315.9 | 5,172.2 | +19.8% |
| Goods and services | -1,865.8 | -280.4 | -1,069.0 | wider |
| Primary income | -1,735.4 | -2,073.6 | -2,089.8 | +0.8% |
| Secondary income | 585.2 | 474.6 | 761.4 | +60.4% |
| Current account | -3,016.0 | -1,879.3 | -2,397.5 | +27.6% |
Service receipts rose 14.8% to USD 8,620.2M in the year to September 2026, driven by tourism and transport earnings. Tourism receipts reached USD 4,565.8M; transport receipts USD 3,478.7M on freight linked to transit trade. Monthly receipts were USD 1,017.5M in September, up from about USD 703.5M a year earlier on travel.
| Receipts (USD M) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026p | Growth 2026 | Share 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel (tourism) | 3,792.1 | 4,387.6 | 4,565.8 | +4.1% | 53.0% |
| Transport | 2,283.6 | 2,669.9 | 3,478.7 | +30.3% | 40.4% |
| Other services | 591.4 | 450.8 | 575.7 | +27.7% | 6.7% |
| Total | 6,667.1 | 7,508.3 | 8,620.2 | +14.8% | 100% |
Table 2.1. Other services: construction, insurance, financial, telecommunications, computer and information, intellectual property charges, government, personal and other business services. Source: BoT; TICGL/TERI calc.
Service payments rose 8.0% to USD 3,448.1M, largely on higher freight payments in line with the increased import bill. Monthly payments were USD 288.2M in September (USD 270.6M a year earlier), mainly freight.
| Payments (USD M) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026p | Growth 2026 | Net 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel | 450.6 | 687.8 | 672.9 | -2.2% | +3,892.9 |
| Transport (freight) | 1,361.2 | 1,468.8 | 1,847.2 | +25.8% | +1,631.5 |
| Other services | 792.4 | 1,035.8 | 928.0 | -10.4% | -352.3 |
| Total | 2,604.2 | 3,192.4 | 3,448.1 | +8.0% | +5,172.2 |
Exports of goods rose 23.7% to USD 12,444.9M, led by gold (USD 5,834.5M, from USD 4,431.2M) and manufactured goods (USD 2,202.4M, from USD 1,546.2M, on iron, steel and glassware). Tobacco rose; coffee and cashew declined. Imports of goods rose 27.5% to USD 18,686.1M.
| Driver | Risk or opportunity | Indicator |
|---|---|---|
| Oil prices | Petroleum imports +72%; every USD 10 a barrel widens the deficit | Brent, petroleum import bill |
| Tourism growth | Travel receipts slowed to +4.1% after a 3.4x rebound | Travel receipts, arrivals |
| Transit trade | Transport receipts +30% rely on regional demand and port efficiency | Freight receipts |
| Gold and manufactures | Gold +31.7%, manufactures +42%; gold price volatility | Export value by product |
| Reserves | USD 6.0B, 4.3 months; above the benchmark | Months of imports |
USD 2,397.5 million in the year to September 2026, up 27.6% from USD 1,879.3 million; reserves are USD 6,031.9 million (4.3 months of imports).
USD 8,620.2 million (+14.8%): travel USD 4,565.8 million, transport USD 3,478.7 million and other services USD 575.7 million.
USD 3,448.1 million (+8.0%), led by transport/freight at USD 1,847.2 million; travel USD 672.9 million and other services USD 928.0 million.
About 83%: a services surplus of USD 5,172.2 million against a goods deficit of USD 6,241.2 million, up from 47% in 2021.
Sekta ya nje ya Tanzania inaendeleaje? Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu (Oktoba 2026): nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa imeongezeka kwa asilimia 27.6 hadi USD milioni 2,397.5 kwa mwaka ulioishia Septemba 2026, kwa sababu uagizaji wa bidhaa na huduma (+asilimia 24.0) umezidi mauzo nje (+asilimia 19.9).
Chanzo: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.
Zanzibar's inflation eased to 4.3% in September 2026, its current account surplus grew 18.7% to USD 986.8 million on tourism, and development spending took 72% of the month's budget. Yet revenue fell short of target, goods trade runs a deficit and a single crop, cloves, now supplies most goods exports. This page reads Section 3 of the BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 to show what is working and what to watch.
Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review, October 2026, Section 3 (Office of the Chief Government Statistician; Ministry of Finance and Planning, Zanzibar; TRA; banks). Shares, gaps and growth rates are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on published figures.
Prices are easing. Headline inflation fell to 4.3% from 5.6% in August (3.5% a year ago), inside the 5% medium-term target, as food inflation dropped from 9.8% to 6.9%.
The external position is strong, and tourism carries it. Service receipts reached USD 1,799.4M, 96.5% of all exports, turning a USD 768.5M goods deficit into a USD 986.8M current account surplus.
The budget is stretched. September resources were TZS 210.4B (92.8% of target, 12% below a year ago) against spending of TZS 494.5B, up 18%, with TZS 355.9B on development projects.
Imports signal investment. Capital goods imports almost tripled to USD 228.3M, but goods exports depend on cloves (58%), a cyclical crop.
| Test | Evidence | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Prices | 4.3% vs 5% target; food 6.9% | Anchored, volatile food |
| Fiscal | Resources 92.8% of target; spending +18% y/y | Pressure |
| External | CA surplus +18.7%; services USD 1.80B | Strong |
| Structure | 96.5% services; cloves 58% of goods exports | Concentrated |
Headline inflation moderated to 4.3% in September 2026 from 5.6% in August, attributable to lower prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which weigh 41.9% of the CPI basket. It remains above the 3.5% of September 2025. Month-on-month, prices fell 1.0% (Table 3.1.1).
| Group (annual %) | Weight | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 41.9 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 6.8 |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas | 25.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Transport | 9.1 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| Clothing and footwear | 6.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Furnishings and household | 4.8 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Restaurants and accommodation | 1.4 | 1.6 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Headline (all items) | 100.0 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.3 |
Table 1.1. Source: Office of the Chief Government Statistician; BoT. Base: July 2022 = 100.
In September 2026 the resource envelope was TZS 210.4B (92.8% of the monthly target). Domestic revenue was TZS 200.9B (95.5% of the envelope; 92.9% of target); tax revenue TZS 173.7B (91.6% of target) with VAT, local excise and income tax strong; non-tax revenue TZS 27.3B (2.4% above target). Expenditure was TZS 494.5B.
| TZS billion | Sep-25 | Sep-26 est. | Sep-26 actual | y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax on imports | 36.3 | 43.8 | 29.3 | -19.3% |
| VAT and excise (local) | 66.6 | 54.8 | 65.2 | -2.1% |
| Income tax | 38.7 | 49.0 | 50.4 | +30.2% |
| Other taxes | 44.7 | 42.0 | 28.8 | -35.6% |
| Non-tax revenue | 17.8 | 26.6 | 27.3 | +53.4% |
| Grants | 36.1 | 10.4 | 9.4 | -74.0% |
| Total resources | 240.2 | 226.6 | 210.4 | -12.4% |
| Total expenditure | 420.1 | 446.8 | 494.5 | +17.7% |
In the year to September 2026 the current account surplus expanded 18.7% to USD 986.8M. Exports of goods and services rose 15.9% to USD 1,864.4M; imports rose 34.0% to USD 899.4M. Service receipts reached USD 1,799.4M (+14.3%), mainly tourism, while service payments fell 36.5%.
| USD million | Yr to Sep-25 | Yr to Sep-26p | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goods account (net) | -532.2 | -768.5 | 44.4% wider |
| Services account (net) | 1,470.1 | 1,733.6 | +17.9% |
| Service receipts | 1,573.8 | 1,799.4 | +14.3% |
| Exports of goods and services | 1,609.0 | 1,864.4 | +15.9% |
| Imports of goods and services | 671.1 | 899.4 | +34.0% |
| Primary income (net) | 9.4 | 17.1 | +82.8% |
| Current account balance | 831.4 | 986.8 | +18.7% |
| Import (USD M) | 2025 | 2026p | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital goods | 81.2 | 228.3 | +181% |
| Intermediate goods | 409.6 | 494.2 | +20.7% |
| o/w industrial supplies | 148.1 | 254.7 | +72.0% |
| o/w fuel and lubricants | 134.3 | 120.1 | -10.5% |
| Consumer goods | 76.5 | 111.0 | +45.0% |
| Total (f.o.b.) | 567.4 | 833.5 | +46.9% |
| Risk / driver | Why it matters | Indicator |
|---|---|---|
| Tourism concentration | 96.5% of exports are services; a shock hits the surplus | Travel receipts |
| Clove cycle | Goods exports swing with harvests | Clove volume and price |
| Food price volatility | Food is 41.9% of CPI; peaked at 9.8% | Food inflation |
| Revenue shortfall | 92.8% of target while spending is +18% | Tax collections vs estimate |
| Grants decline | Down 74% y/y; domestic financing 77.8% | Grants, development financing |
4.3%, down from 5.6% in August and below the 5% target but above 3.5% a year earlier; food inflation fell to 6.9% from 9.8%.
Yes, USD 986.8 million in the year to September 2026 (+18.7%), as service receipts of USD 1,799.4 million, mainly tourism, exceeded a USD 768.5 million goods deficit.
Resources were TZS 210.4 billion (92.8% of target) against spending of TZS 494.5 billion, of which TZS 355.9 billion (72%) was development spending.
Mostly services (96.5%). Among goods, cloves reached USD 38.0 million, about 58% of goods exports, up from USD 6.2 million.
Uchumi wa Zanzibar unaendeleaje? Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu (Oktoba 2026): mfumuko wa bei ulishuka hadi asilimia 4.3 Septemba 2026 kutoka 5.6 Agosti, chini ya lengo la asilimia 5, kutokana na kushuka kwa bei za chakula (asilimia 9.8 hadi 6.9).
Chanzo: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.
Tanzania's foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 82%, from USD 944 million in 2020 to about USD 1.72 billion in 2025, while TISEZA registrations hit a record USD 10.95 billion. Is that a genuine, broad-based surge in productive investment, or is it reinvested profits, intercompany loans and a handful of large transactions? This page applies five tests (trend, composition, concentration, deal distortions and pipeline conversion) to Bank of Tanzania, TISEZA, NBS and UNCTAD data, compares Tanzania with Egypt, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique and four development-path cases, checks trade and the current account, and sets out three scenarios to 2030/31 including the LNG upside.
Source: BoT/TISEZA/NBS Tanzania Investment Report 2025; UNCTAD World Investment Reports 2025 and 2026; TISEZA. Shares, new-cash totals, conversion ratios, growth rates and index series are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on the published figures; see Sources & Data Notes.
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; it is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. Flow and stock figures come from the Bank of Tanzania, TISEZA and NBS Tanzania Investment Report 2025 (data to 2024) and from UNCTAD for 2025. Where two official series differ (for example the 2024 growth rate), both are shown with their source.
Tanzania's capital-flow recovery is real, but it is not a broad-based surge, and it is deal-influenced rather than deal-driven. FDI rose from USD 944M (2020) to USD 1,649M (2023) and has since plateaued at about USD 1.66–1.72B (2024–2025). No single mega-transaction explains the rise.
Most of the headline is not new money. Reinvested earnings were 55% of FDI in 2020–2024, fresh equity 25% and intercompany loans 20%. New cash (equity plus loans) fell 41% in 2024 while the headline was flat.
The surge is in registrations, and in global and African headline figures dominated by a few mega-deals. TISEZA registered USD 10.95B in 2025 against about USD 1.7B of FDI (~16%; ~37–45% on a foreign-ownership-adjusted, cumulative basis). Africa's 2024 spike was driven largely by one USD 35B deal in Egypt.
The real big deal is still ahead. LNG (USD 30–42B) is pre-FID. With FID it could outweigh every other driver of FDI in 2028–2031; without it Tanzania stays near USD 2B a year unless conversion improves.
| Test | Evidence (Tanzania unless stated) | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Trend | FDI +82% 2020–2025, but flat since 2023 (1,649 → 1,656 BoT; ≈1,718 in 2025, UNCTAD) | Growth, then plateau |
| 2. Composition | Reinvested earnings 55% of 2020–24 FDI; fresh equity 25%; loans 20%; new cash USD 548M in 2024 vs 924M in 2023 | Mostly not new money |
| 3. Concentration | Top 4 sectors 73.6% of 2024 inflows; top 10 source countries 64.7%; mining 45% of FDI stock but 27% of 2024 flows | Concentrated, diversifying slowly |
| 4. Deal distortions | UK inflow of USD 500M in 2024 reflects share acquisitions in mining; 2023 lifted by USD 711M of intercompany loans; Cayman and Canada fell from 35–63% of flows (2020–22) to about zero | Partly deal-influenced |
| 5. Pipeline conversion | Registered USD 10.95B (2025) vs actual ≈USD 1.7B; average registered project only ≈USD 12M | Broad pipeline, weak conversion |
Table 0.1. Sources: BoT/TISEZA/NBS Tanzania Investment Report 2025; UNCTAD WIR 2025 and 2026; TISEZA. Percentages computed by TICGL.
Is the recent increase in capital flows into Tanzania a genuine, broad-based rise in productive investment, or is it mainly driven by a small number of large commercial transactions and reinvested earnings?
Tanzania's post-2020 rise in FDI reflects a real recovery, but its composition is concentrated in mining, finance, manufacturing, ICT and a limited number of large projects, so it is not yet a broad-based investment surge. Result: supported by all five tests.
A genuine surge should show up across several channels and across many firms and sectors, not in one. The method is a mixed diagnostic: time series, composition data, trade statistics and case studies. History covers 2020–2025 (2020 captures the COVID-19 shock) and the outlook 2026–2031. The tests examine the level and trend of flows, composition, concentration by sector and source, visible ownership-transfer effects, and how much of the registered pipeline converts into inflows.
| Source | Used for |
|---|---|
| BoT, TISEZA and NBS: Tanzania Investment Report 2025 (Private Capital Flows survey, 563-enterprise frame; 404 firms above USD 2M cover ≈99% of foreign private investment value) | FDI flows and stock, financing components, sector and source-country breakdowns, income on investment |
| UNCTAD World Investment Reports 2025 and 2026; country factsheet | Global, African and East African comparisons; 2025 Tanzania flow |
| TISEZA bulletins and ministerial statements | Project registrations, ownership mix, flagship projects |
| NBS Statistical Abstract, Ministry of Finance Economic Survey, World Bank WITS | Merchandise exports and imports |
| WTO trade outlook | Global trade volumes and forecasts |
| Case studies: Egypt, Mozambique, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya; Vietnam, Indonesia, Morocco, Rwanda | Deal-driven versus broad-based patterns, and what turns big deals into wider transformation |
For 2024 UNCTAD reports USD 1.72B (+28.3% from a USD 1.34B base) while the Bank of Tanzania reports USD 1,656M (+0.4% from USD 1,649M). These are two series with different 2023 bases. This page states the source with every figure.
Tanzania has moved from the COVID-19 shock to a steady, real recovery in capital inflows. It is not a broad-based surge of new greenfield equity: it rests on reinvestment by existing investors and intercompany loans, in a few sectors, with a widening gap between registered and realised investment. The central policy task is conversion and diversification, not merely attraction.
Test 1 asks whether Tanzania's FDI has kept rising or has stalled, in nominal terms, against the stock of foreign capital and against the size of the economy. The short answer: it recovered strongly from the 2020 shock and then flattened, and relative to GDP it has fallen.
| Year | FDI inflows (USD M) | Change | Reinvested earnings share | New cash: fresh equity + loans (USD M) | Observation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 944 | −22% | 61% | 368 | COVID-19 shock |
| 2021 | 1,191 | +26% | 48% | 621 | Recovery; mining reinvestment |
| 2022 | 1,438 | +21% | 57% | 618 | Strong despite weak global FDI |
| 2023 | 1,649 | +15% | 44% | 924 | Lifted by USD 711M of loans |
| 2024 | 1,656 (BoT) / 1,723 (UNCTAD) | +0.4% (BoT) | 67% | 548 | Stall: loans repaid, equity small |
| 2025 | ≈1,718 (UNCTAD WIR 2026) | +3.7% vs BoT 2024 | n/a | n/a | Modest rise; composition unpublished |
Table 1.1. Source: BoT/TISEZA/NBS Tanzania Investment Report 2025 (Table 4.1); UNCTAD WIR 2026 for 2025 (press coverage rounds it to USD 1.71B). "New cash" is TICGL's sum of equity excluding retained earnings and loans from related parties.
In nominal terms 2024 inflows (USD 1.66B) are only marginally above 2015 (USD 1.56B on the same BoT series, +6%), so the rise is a recovery from the 2016–2018 trough, not a new level. FDI relative to the economy is falling: about 2.0–2.2% of GDP in 2024 and roughly 1.9% in 2025 (USD 1.72B on a USD 91.8B GDP), far below the 5.66% reported for 2010.
| Year | Inward FDI stock (USD M) | Growth | Change in stock (USD M) | Flow in the year (USD M) | Valuation and other (USD M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 15,741 | n/a | n/a | 1,191 | n/a |
| 2022 | 18,096 | +15.0% | 2,355 | 1,438 | +917 |
| 2023 | 19,455 | +7.5% | 1,359 | 1,649 | −290 |
| 2024 | 21,699 | +11.5% | 2,244 | 1,656 | +588 |
| 2025 | 23,417 (draft figure) | +7.9% | 1,718 | 1,718 | 0 (see note) |
Table 1.2. Sources: BoT/TISEZA/NBS Tanzania Investment Report 2025 (2021–2024); 2025 from the UNCTAD factsheet roll-forward. TICGL calculation of the residual. The 2025 stock equals the 2024 stock plus the 2025 flow exactly, so it appears to be a roll-forward, not a measured stock.
The stock rose by about USD 7.7B between 2021 and 2025, faster than cumulative flows, because it includes valuation changes, exchange-rate effects and retained foreign capital. Mining holds USD 9.8B (45.2%) of the 2024 stock, followed by manufacturing (USD 3.3B), ICT (USD 2.9B) and finance (USD 2.5B).
Positive growth every year since 2020 is a genuine recovery, achieved while global FDI fell in 2023–2024. But a plateau at USD 1.66–1.72B since 2023, a level only about 6% above 2015, and a falling share of GDP mean that this is a rebuild, not a step up.
Headline FDI mixes very different things. Reinvested earnings are profits of existing foreign firms retained in Tanzania; intercompany loans are lent by parent companies and can be repaid; fresh equity is new money. Only the last two together are "new cash".
| Year | Headline FDI | Reinvested earnings (calc.) | New cash | Reinvested share | New cash share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 944 | 576 | 368 | 61% | 39% |
| 2021 | 1,191 | 572 | 621 | 48% | 52% |
| 2022 | 1,438 | 820 | 618 | 57% | 43% |
| 2023 | 1,649 | 726 | 924 | 44% | 56% |
| 2024 | 1,656 | 1,108 | 548 | 67% | 33% |
| 2020–2024 | 6,878 | 3,802 | 3,079 | 55% | 45% |
Table 2.1. Reinvested earnings are the BoT shares applied to headline FDI; 2021 differs from the sum by USD 2M of rounding. Source: BoT/TISEZA/NBS; TICGL/TERI calc.
New cash was a minority of FDI in four of five years and a third of it in 2024. Rising reinvestment is real capital formation by existing investors, but it is not the "new investor arrives, new factory opens" surge that the headline suggests.
| Sector (USD M) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining and quarrying | 847 | 533 | 442 | Share of FDI: 59% → 32% → 27%; still 45% of stock |
| Finance and insurance | 238 | 268 | 401 | +50% in 2024; mostly retained profits (USD 769M of USD 851M profit kept) |
| Manufacturing | 180 | 361 | 223 | Hit by repayment of intercompany loans |
| Information and communication | 90 | 198 | 152 | Digital services demand |
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 14 | 58 | 130 | More than doubled |
| Construction | 16 | 20 | 113 | SGR, port and BRT linked |
| Transport and storage | 12 | 18 | 77 | Port, SGR and logistics |
| Top four sectors, share of total | 73.6% | Mining, finance, manufacturing, ICT (USD 1,218M of USD 1,656M) |
Table 3.1. Source: BoT/TISEZA/NBS Tanzania Investment Report 2025; TICGL/TERI calc. of shares.
Reading: mining dependence is easing, but the replacement is largely reinvestment inside finance rather than a new wave of external capital. Diversification toward agriculture, construction and transport is visible, from small bases. Health and education remain close to zero.
| Source (USD M) | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 111 | 149 | 124 | 167 | 500 |
| South Africa | −6 | 51 | 54 | 122 | 247 |
| United Arab Emirates | 7 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 168 |
| China | −9 | 221 | 23 | 98 | 129 |
| Netherlands | 57 | 73 | 182 | 134 | 110 |
| Mauritius | 49 | 74 | 150 | 242 | 102 |
| Cayman Islands | 429 | 280 | 344 | −1 | −1 |
| Canada | 162 | 169 | 161 | 11 | 0 |
Table 3.2. Source: BoT/TISEZA/NBS Tanzania Investment Report 2025 (Appendix II).
Cayman Islands and Canada together supplied 63%, 38% and 35% of FDI in 2020–2022, then almost nothing in 2023–2024, while the UK jumped to USD 500M. The Bank of Tanzania attributes the UK rise to the acquisition of mining shares previously held by Canadian and Cayman shareholders. Part of the recorded 2024 shift in sources is therefore a change of ownership, not new capital from a new region. The rises from the UAE (USD 168M) and South Africa (USD 247M) are genuine new-source signals, but each is a single-year step to be confirmed in 2025 data.
Concentration is high but slowly easing: four sectors take 73.6% of 2024 inflows and ten source countries 64.7%. Source-country swings in 2023–24 are partly changes of ownership. These are the "deal" effects in Tanzania's data: real, but small compared with the single-transaction distortions seen elsewhere in Africa (Tab 5).
| Channel | Tanzania evidence | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Reinvested earnings | USD 1,108M in 2024 (67% of FDI); 55% of 2020–24 total; strongest in mining after 2021 and finance in 2024 | Real capital formation by existing investors, but not new foreign cash. The largest component. |
| Intercompany loans | USD 711M in 2023; USD 258M in 2024 after repayments | Lumpy and repayable; explains the 2023 high and the 2024 stall. |
| Fresh equity and greenfield | USD 291M in 2024 (17.5%). Large projects reported among registrations include Hengya Cement (USD 530M), Airtel 5G (USD 480M), Sotta gold processing (USD 364M) and Songea Sukari (USD 352M) | High value but few projects; the average registered project is only ≈USD 12M. |
| Mergers and ownership transfers | UK inflow of USD 500M in 2024 attributed by BoT to mining share acquisitions | Raises FDI without immediately adding capacity. |
| Financial-hub (conduit) flows | Series is built from a firm-level survey, not from financial-centre statistics | Much less distorting than in global totals. |
| Portfolio investment | USD 6.5M in 2024 (USD 1.4M in 2023); DSE market capitalisation USD 6.9B, All-Share Index +22.2% | Negligible as a source of long-term capital. |
| Other investment | USD 322M in 2024, mostly trade credits (USD 258M) into mining and finance | Short-term trade finance, not equity. |
Table 4.1. Source: BoT/TISEZA/NBS Tanzania Investment Report 2025; TanzaniaInvest for flagship projects (reported, not verified against TISEZA registers).
| Supports a genuine recovery | Shows the surge is limited or concentrated |
|---|---|
| Positive growth every year since 2020, while global FDI fell in 2023–2024 | Plateau at USD 1.66–1.72B since 2023; nominal level close to 2015 |
| Stock up USD 6B in 2021–2024; reinvestment signals investor confidence | 55% of FDI is reinvested earnings; new cash fell 41% in 2024 |
| No single mega-deal explains the rise, so it is not a one-off spike | Four sectors take 73.6%; ten sources take 64.7%; ownership transfers visible in 2024 |
| New sources emerging (UAE, South Africa, UK); agriculture and construction growing | FDI/GDP fell to ≈1.9%; registered pipeline converts weakly into inflows |
| Fastest FDI growth in East Africa in 2024 on the UNCTAD series | Peers with big deals (Uganda, Ethiopia, Mozambique) show larger absolute flows |
Tanzania's capital-flow increase is real, deal-influenced but not deal-driven, and structurally narrow. The dominant weakness is composition (reinvestment and loans) and conversion, not an over-reliance on one giant transaction.
| Year | Projects registered | Value (USD B) | Average size (USD M) | Actual FDI (USD B) | Headline ratio | Gap (USD B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 526 | ≈5.7 | ≈10.8 | 1.65 | ≈29% | 4.05 |
| 2024 | 901 | 9.3 | ≈10.3 | 1.66 | ≈18% | 7.64 |
| 2025 | 915 (442 foreign, 182 JV, 284 local) | 10.95 | ≈12.0 | ≈1.72 | ≈16% | 9.23 |
Table 4.3. Sources: TISEZA (Ministry of Planning and Investment, June 2026); BoT; UNCTAD. Gap = registered value minus actual FDI (TICGL/TERI calc.); average size = value ÷ projects.
| Measure (TICGL estimate) | Result |
|---|---|
| Headline: 2025 actual FDI ÷ 2025 registered value | ≈16% |
| Cumulative 2023–25 actual FDI (USD 5.0B) ÷ cumulative registered (USD 26.0B) | ≈19% |
| Same, against the foreign-owned share of registrations only (43–52%) | ≈37–45% |
| 2023–24 new cash (fresh equity + loans, USD 1.47B) ÷ foreign-owned registrations (USD 6.5–7.8B) | ≈19–23% |
Reading: the registration surge is a breadth story (average project size is stable at about USD 10–12M, so it is not driven by mega-projects), but conversion to new foreign cash is low. Even after adjusting for ownership and timing, only about 4 in 10 foreign registered dollars appear as FDI, and well under 1 in 4 as new cash. Registration is an intention indicator, not an investment indicator.
Defaults are 2023–2025 cumulative figures. Change them to test another period, or enter the foreign-owned share of registered value to see the adjusted ratio.
The absolute gap, USD 4.05B in 2023 to USD 9.23B in 2025, is the central reason headline "investment attraction" figures overstate real capital flows. Pipeline breadth is real; conversion is the problem.
| Period | What happened | What it implies |
|---|---|---|
| 2023–2024 | Global FDI fell two years running on high financing costs and policy uncertainty. In 2024 headline FDI rose 4% to USD 1.51 trillion but fell 11% once conduit-economy flows are excluded. | Headline overstated real investment |
| 2025 | FDI up 6% to USD 1.6 trillion, about 4% excluding flows through European financial centres. Developing economies USD 901B (+2%); Africa ≈USD 70B, below the 2024 peak but above the 2010–2024 average. | Fragile recovery, led by large projects |
| H1 2026 | FDI +37% versus the 2025 half-year average, but new project numbers −15%; cross-border M&A +57% to USD 494B (nine months) while deal counts fell 23%. | Value up, breadth down: a deal-driven pattern |
| Concentration | Top 20 hosts took over 80% of 2025 FDI. AI and digital infrastructure were over a quarter of greenfield value; AI, semiconductors, critical minerals, clean energy and energy transition together 44% (16% in 2020). | Capital is selective, not general |
Table 5.1. Sources: UNCTAD WIR 2025 and 2026 and Global Investment Trends Monitor (as compiled by the TICGL team); BoT Tanzania Investment Report 2025.
Reading: globally the surge is real in value but narrow in breadth, which is the signature of a deal-driven recovery. That frames the test for Tanzania.
| Case | What the data show | Lesson for Tanzania |
|---|---|---|
| Egypt (2024–2025) | Ras El-Hekma (about USD 35B, Abu Dhabi-led) lifted Egypt to USD 46.6B in 2024 and Africa to ≈USD 94–97B (+75%). In 2025 Egypt fell to USD 15.5B and Africa to USD 69.5B (−26%). Excluding the deal, Africa's 2024 rise was +12% and Egypt's 2025 underlying inflow +25%. | One deal creates a base effect that makes the next year look like a collapse. Judge trends ex-mega-deal. |
| Mozambique (2025) | FDI rose strongly to about USD 6B on hydrocarbons and LNG projects. | Shows the scale a Tanzanian LNG FID could add, and how lumpy it is. |
| Uganda (2024–2025) | USD 3.3–3.35B, supported by oil refining, battery storage and a USD 4B greenfield project; second-largest African greenfield recipient in 2025. | Extractives and energy megaprojects, not broad manufacturing, drive Uganda's lead. |
| Ethiopia (2024–2025) | About USD 3.8–4.0B; 2025 greenfield led by Dangote (USD 3B chemicals) and Golden Concord (USD 2.5B), while inflows slipped 5%. | Greenfield announcements are not inflows; timing and delivery matter. |
| Kenya (2024–2025) | USD 1.5B in 2024 (flat) rising to ≈USD 3.2B in 2025. | Volatile from a low base; the cause was not examined here. |
| Africa (2025) | Top 10 greenfield projects are ≈40% of announced value; greenfield value fell by nearly a third while project counts rose. | Concentration is the continental norm; Tanzania is less concentrated in single deals than the headline suggests. |
Table 5.2. Sources: UNCTAD WIR 2025 and 2026 regional chapters; East African, Ecofin and Ahram Online reporting on WIR 2026.
Reading: in these countries the biggest swings come from a handful of identifiable projects. Tanzania's series has no transaction of that size; its profile is steady, small-step flows made mostly of reinvestment. Tanzania was fifth in the 2025 regional listing, behind Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and DR Congo.
| Country | Mechanism | Lesson for Tanzania |
|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | FDI embedded in export supply chains (electronics, textiles, footwear, furniture) through export-processing zones, trade agreements, logistics, power and a large workforce, not individual megaprojects | Capital transforms an economy when it creates supplier linkages, jobs and export platforms. Link SEZs, Kwala and the SGR corridor to supply chains. |
| Indonesia | Downstream industrial policy on nickel and battery materials: export restrictions, incentives, smelters and EV supply chains | Minerals attract big deals, but value stays local only with processing, energy, skills and logistics. Relevant to graphite, nickel, lithium and rare earths. |
| Morocco | Ports, industrial zones, skills programmes and market access to Europe drew automotive, aerospace and renewables investment without a resource base | Reliable infrastructure and predictable regulation matter more than endowment. Use SGR, ports, power and AfCFTA access. |
| Rwanda | Small economy with strong institutional credibility, digital services and targeted sector promotion; FDI far below Tanzania's but conversion is better | Institutional credibility reduces investor risk. Combine Tanzania's scale with Rwanda-type implementation. |
Table 5.3. Source: TICGL research drafts (qualitative synthesis).
A deal-driven surge shows (1) value rising while project counts fall, (2) one or two identifiable transactions behind the swing, (3) a base-effect "collapse" the following year. Tanzania shows none of the three: it has no single transaction of that size, its registrations are many and mid-sized, and its series moves in small steps. Its weakness is different: low conversion and a composition tilted to reinvestment.
If FDI expands productive investment, exports, value addition and diversification should rise faster than imports. Trade is therefore a cross-check on the FDI story.
| Indicator | 2025 (actual) | 2026 (WTO) | 2027 (WTO) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goods trade, value | USD 26.26 trillion (+7%) | - | - |
| Services trade, value | USD 9.56 trillion (+8%) | - | - |
| Goods trade, volume growth | - | +3.9% | +4.1% |
| Goods and services together | - | ≈+3.7% | ≈+4.7% |
| Africa exports / imports | - | +5.6% / +8.9% | - |
Table 6.1. Source: WTO (as compiled by the TICGL team). Africa's imports are forecast to grow faster than exports, so productive capacity must grow for the gap not to widen.
| Year | Exports FOB (TZS tn) | Imports CIF (TZS tn) | Deficit (TZS tn) | Exports ÷ imports |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 13.88 | 19.63 | −5.75 | 71% |
| 2021 | 14.38 | 24.86 | −10.48 | 58% |
| 2022 | 15.64 | 36.24 | −20.60 | 43% |
| 2023 | 17.30 | 36.29 | −18.99 | 48% |
| 2024 | 22.58 | 40.98 | −18.40 | 55% |
| 2025 | 25.29 | 41.04 | −15.75 | 62% |
Table 6.2. Source: NBS and Ministry of Finance Economic Survey as compiled by TICGL; deficit is exports minus imports as shown.
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current account deficit (USD M) | 2,961 | 2,380 | 3.7% → 2.9% of GDP; 7.4% in 2022 |
| Headline FDI ÷ deficit | 56% | 70% | Looks reassuring |
| New cash (equity + loans) ÷ deficit | 31% | 23% | Real foreign-exchange cover is thin |
| Imports of goods and services, % of GDP | 20.3% | 20.8% | vs 14.4% in 2020 |
| Official reserves (USD M) | 5,450 | 5,547 | About 4.5 months of imports |
Table 6.3. Source: BoT/NBS (Tanzania Investment Report 2025, Table 2.1); TICGL calculations.
Because reinvested earnings add no net foreign exchange, only about a quarter of the current account deficit is financed by genuinely new FDI cash; the rest relies on borrowing, tourism, gold earnings and reserves. Trade confirms the pattern seen in FDI: growth is real, but concentrated in gold and tourism and dependent on imported capital goods. Converting investment into export capacity and local value addition is the test.
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Project and value | Tanzania LNG, Likong'o (Lindi); reported at USD 30B in earlier years and USD 42B in 2026; up to ≈10 million tonnes a year; ≈47 Tcf of offshore gas |
| Partners | Shell and Equinor (operators), ExxonMobil, Pavilion Energy, Medco Energi, TPDC |
| Stage (October 2026) | Commercial and financial negotiations largely complete; legal stage (Host Government Agreement and production sharing agreement) per team brief; FID not yet taken |
| Track record | FID targeted repeatedly since 2014 and again for 2025; HGA signing target moved to mid-2026 |
| Timeline | FID 2027–2028 if agreements close; first LNG early 2030s |
If USD 42B were spent evenly over a six-year build (2028–2033), project spending would average about USD 7B a year. How much is recorded as FDI depends on financing: equity and intercompany loans from foreign partners count as FDI, third-party project finance and the state's (TPDC) share do not. At an illustrative 30–60% FDI-classified share, LNG would add roughly USD 2–4B a year to recorded FDI, doubling the baseline. This arithmetic shows order of magnitude only.
Defaults follow the illustration above.
LNG is the one genuine big deal in the 2027–2031 window. It would give a different answer to the research question: a surge real in scale but concentrated in a single project, with the same base-effect risk seen in Egypt once construction peaks. Until FID it is upside, not baseline.
| Area | Outlook | Implication for Tanzania |
|---|---|---|
| Global FDI | Likely to stay above the 2023–24 trough but concentrated in large projects and strategic sectors; UNCTAD flags the 2026 Middle East conflict as a major adverse shock | Prepare bankable projects rather than rely on general investor interest |
| Global trade | WTO: goods volume +3.9% (2026) and +4.1% (2027); goods and services +3.7% and +4.7% | Favourable environment for export-oriented investment |
| Critical minerals | Strong interest linked to batteries, electronics and energy transition | Prioritise local processing, reliable power and transparent licensing |
| Infrastructure | Ports, rail, power, roads and digital infrastructure keep attracting capital | Structure projects with clear revenue models and risk allocation |
| Capital markets | Pension funds, insurers and corporate bonds can become larger sources of long-term capital | Deepen DSE, corporate bonds and infrastructure finance |
| Regional access | EAC, SADC, AfCFTA, AGOA and EBA give market access | Target regional value chains, not only primary exports |
| Scenario | Realisation ratio | Annual FDI by 2030/31 (USD B) | Implied growth a year from USD 1.72B* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business as usual | ≈15–20% | 1.8–2.5 | ≈4.6% |
| Moderate reform | ≈35–40% | 3.5–4.5 | ≈18.4% |
| Ambitious reform | ≈55–70% | 6–8+ | ≈32.4% |
| LNG FID overlay (illustrative) | Additive | +2–4 in construction years | Depends on FID date |
| Government target | n/a | 10–15 | ≈42–54% |
*TICGL calculation over five years using mid-points (2.15, 4.0, 7.0). Scenarios are TICGL estimates, not BoT, IMF or UNCTAD forecasts. The realisation ratios use the headline (registered value) basis.
Enter a starting FDI, a target, the years to reach it and the pipeline to see the growth rate and the realisation ratio required.
The evidence points to a conversion and composition problem more than an attraction problem. The objective should be to raise new-cash FDI and the share of registered projects that disburse, to turn big deals into wider spillovers, and to prepare for LNG without relying on it.
| Priority and action | Problem addressed | Indicator to track |
|---|---|---|
| Land bank of titled industrial land (SEZs, Kwala) | Land delays of 18–24 months | Days to access titled land |
| Service-level agreements on permits (e.g. 60 days) through TISEZA's one-stop centre | Multiple permits and delays | Share of permits issued within SLA |
| Mandatory aftercare for projects above USD 5M | Projects stall after registration | Disbursement rate by registration cohort |
| FX forward facility | Repatriation risk | Facility uptake and investor feedback |
| National bankable project pipeline across minerals, power, ports, agro-processing, tourism and digital, each with feasibility study, revenue model, risk allocation, safeguards and timeline | Reliance on headline interest | Projects with feasibility, offtake and risk allocation |
| Mineral beneficiation: downstream processing, local suppliers, reliable power, skills and transparent licensing | Mining deals without linkages | Share of minerals processed locally; local supplier spend |
| Deepen domestic capital markets: pension funds, insurers, banks and diaspora savings into corporate bonds, infrastructure funds, private equity, REITs and listed instruments | Reliance on foreign capital; savings sitting in deposits and government securities | Domestic infrastructure finance raised |
| Export competitiveness: lower logistics costs, port efficiency, power, customs simplification, standards aligned with EAC, SADC and AfCFTA | Import-heavy investment; thin export linkages | Export-to-import cover ratio; logistics cost per TEU |
| Investment-quality reporting: new projects, jobs, local procurement, export earnings, value addition, reinvested earnings, completion rates and sector spread, plus a quarterly BoP-based FDI breakdown and registration-to-disbursement tracker | Opaque composition and conversion | New-cash FDI; cumulative conversion ratio |
| Manage large deals strategically: local-content plans, supplier development, technology transfer, skills and revenue-linkage obligations | Big deals without spillovers | Local content share; jobs and suppliers per deal |
| LNG readiness: fiscal-stabilisation planning and macro buffers for the construction peak; treat LNG as upside, not core strategy | Boom-bust and base-effect risk | Reserve cover through construction |
Tanzania has moved from the COVID-19 shock to a period of steady, real recovery in capital inflows, visible in balance-of-payments data, the FDI stock and the region's growth rankings. It is not, however, a broad-based surge of new greenfield equity: it is built mainly on reinvestment by existing investors and intercompany loans, concentrated in a few sectors, and accompanied by a large and widening gap between registered and realised investment.
Whether 2027–2031 brings a genuine surge will depend less on new announcements and more on converting the existing pipeline into disbursed capital, attracting a larger share of fresh equity, linking investment to export capacity and local value addition, and managing large deals, above all LNG, so that they create wider spillovers. The central policy task is conversion and diversification, not merely attraction.
TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, turns investment data like this into decision tools: bankable project pipelines, feasibility studies and financial models, market-entry support and economic intelligence.
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What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →Invest in Tanzania →✉️ economist@ticgl.comSource report. TICGL/TERI, Is the Capital Flow Surge Real, or Driven by Big Deals? Global and Tanzania Data, 2020–2031 (October 2026), combining BoT/TISEZA/NBS Tanzania Investment Report 2025, UNCTAD World Investment Reports 2025 and 2026, TISEZA bulletins, NBS, the Ministry of Finance Economic Survey and WTO outlooks. Calculations. Reinvested-earnings amounts, new-cash totals, shares, conversion ratios, gaps, growth rates, indexes and scenario paths are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on published figures.
| Item | Treatment on this page |
|---|---|
| 2024 growth rate | +28.3% (UNCTAD, base USD 1.34B in 2023) and +0.4% (BoT, base USD 1,649M) are two different series. UNCTAD's 2024 value is USD 1.72B and BoT's USD 1,656M. The source is stated with each number. |
| 2025 FDI | USD 1,718M (+3.7%) is measured against BoT's 2024 value; press coverage of WIR 2026 reports USD 1.71B. |
| 2025 FDI stock (USD 23,417M) | Equals the 2024 stock plus the 2025 flow exactly, so it is a roll-forward, not a measured stock. |
| Trade balance | Balance is exports minus imports as shown. The TZS and USD export series imply different exchange rates (2024: about 2,476 versus BoT's 2,597 average), so coverage may differ. |
| Registered-to-realised gap | Computed as registered value minus actual FDI: USD 4.05B (2023), 7.64B (2024), 9.23B (2025), about 2.3 times growth. Earlier drafts' "six-fold" wording is not used. |
| Realisation basis | Registered value includes local and joint-venture capital; adjusted estimates use TISEZA's 43–52% foreign-owned share from bulletins, which varies by period. |
| Reinvested earnings | BoT reports USD 1,107.7M in the FDI flow table and USD 1,686.5M in the income table for 2024; the FDI flow table is used. |
| Government target | USD 10–15B a year, shown on a registered/FDI basis. Some public statements cite registration values as "FDI inflows", which is a different measure. |
| East Africa grouping | Ethiopia is not an EAC member; the grouping follows UNCTAD's East Africa classification. |
| Africa 2024 figure | Shown as ≈97 with ≈35 for Ras El-Hekma (later revised to ≈94; deal value approximate). |
| 2023 fresh equity and 2024 profit retention | 2023 equity (≈213) = new cash 924 minus loans 711; 2024 retained profit (≈1,684) = after-tax profit 2,180 minus dividends 496. Both derived. |
| Qualitative case summaries | The Vietnam, Indonesia, Morocco and Rwanda summaries are a qualitative synthesis, not quantified here. |
| Not yet published | FDI by project size, the 2025 composition of FDI, and Tanzania greenfield project counts. |
| Rounding | Totals may differ from component sums by rounding. |
It is real but not broad-based. FDI rose from USD 944 million in 2020 to about USD 1.72 billion in 2025, yet it has plateaued since 2023 and is deal-influenced rather than deal-driven. No single mega-transaction explains the rise, but most of the headline is reinvested earnings (55% of 2020-2024 FDI) and intercompany loans, not new cash.
About USD 1.72 billion according to UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2026, up about 3.7% from the Bank of Tanzania's 2024 figure of USD 1,656 million. FDI was equal to roughly 1.9% of GDP, far below the 5.66% reported for 2010.
Less than half. Reinvested earnings were 55% of FDI in 2020-2024 (USD 3.8 billion of USD 6.9 billion), fresh equity 25% and intercompany loans 20%. New cash, meaning fresh equity plus loans, fell 41% in 2024 from USD 924 million to USD 548 million while the headline was flat.
Registrations are intentions, not inflows. In 2025 only 442 of 915 registered projects were foreign-owned, projects take years to disburse, and actual FDI includes reinvested earnings. Headline conversion is about 16%, about 19% cumulatively for 2023-2025 and roughly 37-45% against the foreign-owned share of registrations.
No. Tanzania has no transaction comparable to Egypt's Ras El-Hekma deal (about USD 35 billion), which lifted Africa's 2024 FDI by roughly 75%. Ownership transfers are visible in the series, though: the UK's USD 500 million in 2024 reflects mining share acquisitions, and 2023 was lifted by USD 711 million of intercompany loans.
Headline FDI covered 70% of the 2024 current account deficit of USD 2.38 billion, but new cash covered only 23%, because reinvested earnings add no net foreign exchange. The rest relies on borrowing, tourism, gold earnings and reserves.
The project, valued at USD 30-42 billion, is pre-FID. If it spends about USD 7 billion a year over a six-year build and 30-60% is classified as FDI, it would add roughly USD 2-4 billion a year to recorded FDI, doubling the baseline. This is an order-of-magnitude illustration, not a forecast.
USD 10-15 billion is 91-137% of the 2025 registration pipeline and implies growth of about 42-54% a year from USD 1.72 billion. It needs the pipeline to roughly double with higher conversion, or LNG and other megaprojects to enter the statistics.
Je, ongezeko la mitaji linaloingia Tanzania ni halisi, au limesukumwa na mikataba mikubwa michache? Jibu la TICGL/TERI: ongezeko ni la kweli, lakini si pana; na limeathiriwa na mikataba badala ya kuendeshwa nayo. Uwekezaji wa moja kwa moja wa kigeni (FDI) ulipanda kutoka USD milioni 944 (2020) hadi takriban USD bilioni 1.72 (2025), ongezeko la asilimia 82, lakini umekwama kwenye kiwango cha USD bilioni 1.66–1.72 tangu 2023.
Sehemu kubwa si fedha mpya: asilimia 55 ya FDI ya 2020–2024 (USD bilioni 3.8 kati ya 6.9) ni faida zilizowekezwa tena (reinvested earnings), asilimia 25 ni mtaji mpya wa hisa na asilimia 20 ni mikopo ya makampuni ya kikundi kimoja. Fedha mpya (hisa mpya na mikopo) zilishuka kwa asilimia 41 mwaka 2024, kutoka USD milioni 924 hadi 548, huku jumla ikibaki bila mabadiliko.
Mkusanyiko: sekta nne (madini, fedha, viwanda, TEHAMA) zilichukua asilimia 73.6 ya mtiririko wa 2024, na nchi kumi asilimia 64.7. Pato la Uingereza la USD milioni 500 mwaka 2024 linatokana na ununuzi wa hisa za madini zilizokuwa za wawekezaji wa Canada na Cayman, yaani mabadiliko ya umiliki, si mtaji mpya. Mwaka 2023 uliinuliwa na mikopo ya USD milioni 711.
Usajili si uwekezaji: TISEZA ilisajili miradi ya thamani ya USD bilioni 10.95 mwaka 2025 (miradi 915; 442 ni ya kigeni), lakini FDI halisi ilikuwa takriban USD bilioni 1.7, yaani karibu asilimia 16 (asilimia 37–45 ikirekebishwa kwa umiliki wa kigeni). Pengo lililoongezeka kutoka USD bilioni 4.05 (2023) hadi 9.23 (2025). Ukubwa wa wastani wa mradi ni USD milioni 10–12 tu, kwa hiyo ni upana wa miradi, si miradi mikubwa mno.
Mfano wa mkataba mmoja mkubwa: mkataba wa Ras El-Hekma wa Misri (takriban USD bilioni 35) uliinua FDI ya Afrika mwaka 2024 kwa karibu asilimia 75, kisha Afrika ilishuka asilimia 26 mwaka 2025. Tanzania haina mkataba wa ukubwa huo; mtiririko wake ni wa hatua ndogo ndogo na unaundwa zaidi na uwekezaji upya wa faida.
Biashara na urari wa malipo: mauzo ya nje yaliongezeka asilimia 82 (2020–2025) lakini uagizaji asilimia 109. FDI jumla ilifidia asilimia 70 ya nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa ya 2024 (USD bilioni 2.38), lakini fedha mpya zilifidia asilimia 23 tu, kwa sababu faida zilizowekezwa tena hazileti fedha za kigeni halisi.
LNG na mtazamo hadi 2030/31: mradi wa LNG (USD bilioni 30–42) bado haujafikia uamuzi wa mwisho wa uwekezaji (FID). Ukifikiwa, unaweza kuongeza USD bilioni 2–4 kwa mwaka kwenye FDI inayorekodiwa. Bila LNG: hali ya kawaida USD bilioni 1.8–2.5; mageuzi ya wastani 3.5–4.5; mageuzi makubwa 6–8+. Lengo la serikali la USD bilioni 10–15 kwa mwaka ni asilimia 91–137 ya mkusanyiko wote wa usajili wa 2025.
Hitimisho na hatua: tatizo kuu ni ubadilishaji (conversion) na muundo, si kuvutia tu. Mapendekezo muhimu: ardhi iliyo tayari kwa viwanda, muda wa vibali (SLA), ufuatiliaji wa miradi baada ya usajili, kituo cha FX forward, orodha ya miradi inayokubalika na benki, usindikaji wa madini ndani ya nchi, kuimarisha masoko ya mitaji ya ndani, ushindani wa mauzo ya nje, ripoti ya ubora wa uwekezaji kila robo mwaka, na maandalizi ya LNG bila kuyategemea.
Chanzo: BoT/TISEZA/NBS Tanzania Investment Report 2025; UNCTAD WIR 2025 na 2026; TISEZA; NBS; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.
In the week to 23 October 2026, trading on the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) jumped from USD 19.70 million to USD 60.80 million, about 3.1 times in a single week. The shilling barely noticed, closing at TZS 2,636.74 per dollar (+0.14%). Underneath, the customer side of the market changed sharply: the retail dollar surplus banks had built the week before shrank by about three quarters, mining dollar supply fell and oil and energy dollar demand rose. This page reads the Bank of Tanzania's weekly data to answer three questions: was it capital flows or big trades, what do mining and oil have to do with it, and is the market short of dollars or long of them?
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 19–23 October 2026 (Tables 1–5, Charts 1–10). Net surpluses, ratios, per-week averages and sector swings are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on the Bank's published figures; see Sources & Assumptions.
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; it is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. All market data come from the Bank of Tanzania weekly report. The report gives IFEM turnover only, not direction or counterparties, so statements about who was buying or selling are interpretations of the retail data and are labelled as such.
Between 19 and 23 October 2026 the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market traded USD 60.80 million, up USD 41.10 million (+208.6%) from USD 19.70 million the week before. Activity built through the week: USD 7.60 million on Monday, USD 4.30 million on Tuesday, then USD 17.60 million, USD 12.20 million and USD 19.10 million from Wednesday to Friday. The Bank of Tanzania's indicative mean rate for the US dollar moved only from TZS 2,633.12 to TZS 2,636.74. A jump in volume with almost no jump in price tells us the market absorbed the extra turnover, but it does not tell us why it appeared. The retail data in the same report supply most of the clues.
The IFEM triple is best read as the interbank market redistributing dollars after the customer-side surplus faded, with mining supply down and oil and manufacturing demand up, rather than as evidence of capital flight or a shortage. The shilling's 0.14% move supports that reading. The risk to watch is the direction of the retail surplus: it has now fallen sharply for a week, and a second week of falling mining purchases plus rising oil sales would change the story. The next tabs show the numbers.
The IFEM is where banks trade foreign exchange with each other to square their positions. Higher turnover means more banks needed to move dollars among themselves, either because positions diverged or because larger deals came through. The report publishes only volume. This tab places the weekly jump in its daily, monthly and multi-year context, then tests the explanations the data allow.
| Weekday | Previous week (12–16 Oct), USD m | This week (19–23 Oct), USD m | Change, USD m |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 3.10 | 7.60 | +4.50 |
| Tuesday | 3.60 | 4.30 | +0.70 |
| Wednesday | no bar shown | 17.60 | +17.60 |
| Thursday | 5.00 | 12.20 | +7.20 |
| Friday | 8.00 | 19.10 | +11.10 |
| Week | 19.70 | 60.80 | +41.10 (+208.6%) |
Table 1.1. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Charts 1 and 2. The Bank's chart for the previous week has no bar on Wednesday 14 October, and the interbank cash market shows four trading days for the same week; 14 October is Nyerere Day, a public holiday (TICGL/TERI note, not stated in the report). On that basis the average was USD 4.93 million over four days against USD 12.16 million over five days this week, about 2.5 times.
Monthly IFEM turnover averaged about USD 50.9 million in 2024 (USD 611.1 million in total), rose to about USD 98.6 million in 2025 (USD 1,183.1 million) and has averaged about USD 152.2 million a month from January to September 2026 (USD 1,369.6 million so far). The Bank's monthly series peaked at USD 227.1 million in July 2026. In weekly terms, 2026 has run at about USD 35 million a week, so last week's USD 19.70 million was about 56% of that pace and this week's USD 60.80 million about 174% of it. The surge is therefore a swing from a quiet week to an active one on top of a market that has been structurally deepening, not a leap into unknown territory.
This week alone is about 54% of October's USD 111.70 million month-to-date total. October therefore already sits near the 2026 monthly average (USD 152.2 million) with the last week of the month still to trade, and the month-end week is often busy. If volumes hold near this week's level, October would pass September's USD 151.65 million. The report does not state the cut-off date of the October bar, so this is an inference to be confirmed against the Bank's next monthly figure.
| Explanation | What the report shows | What would confirm it | Fit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banks redistributing dollars after a long-dollar week | Retail purchases fell from USD 363.12m to USD 302.69m while sales rose from USD 241.77m to USD 272.99m; net surplus fell from USD 121.35m to USD 29.70m. Banks that were flush last week were less in need of interbank dollars; this week positions diverged. | Bank-level position data; IFEM volume easing once retail surplus stabilises | Strongest |
| Weaker mining dollar supply | Mining purchases fell 60.3% (USD 65.77m to USD 26.08m); mining net inflow fell USD 41.04m. | Mining purchases staying low next week; export receipt timing from mining firms | Strong |
| Higher end-user dollar demand (oil, manufacturing) | Oil and Energy sales +21.0% to USD 69.06m; Manufacturing sales +33.1% to USD 37.24m. | Oil and energy sales staying above USD 65m a week; month-end import settlement | Strong |
| Large one-off or capital-account deals | 80% of the week's volume came Wednesday to Friday, with a USD 17.60m single day. The report does not break IFEM by counterparty, and T-bill auction 1209 shows no non-bank participation (banks 100%). | Bank of Tanzania commentary; non-resident portfolio data; capital-account releases | Possible, unverified |
| Calendar and base effect | The previous week appears to have had four trading days and was only 56% of the 2026 weekly pace. Even per trading day, this week is about 2.5 times last. | Next week's IFEM level against the USD 35m run-rate | Partial |
| Central bank participation | The weekly report does not say whether the Bank traded in IFEM; its only stated liquidity action is the TZS 774.96bn reverse repo. | Bank of Tanzania statements on FX operations | Not shown |
Table 1.3. TICGL/TERI assessment. "Fit" rates how well the published data support each explanation, not the probability that it is true.
IFEM volume has no sign. The retail side does. Banks sold more dollars to customers (up 12.9%) and bought fewer from them (down 16.6%), and the sectors that took dollars (oil and energy, manufacturing) grew while the sector that supplied them (mining) shrank. That is a swing toward dollar demand compared with last week. But the retail market remained a net buyer of dollars from customers, and the shilling moved just 0.14%. The fair summary is a shift from dollar abundance toward balance, not a shortage. The pressure indicator to watch is whether banks' sales to customers keep rising faster than their purchases.
Three observations in the same report point to an orderly market: the retail surplus was still positive; the interbank cash rate stayed inside the 4.75–7.75% corridor and closed lower; and the Bank was supplying shilling liquidity. None of these proves that no one was stretched, but together they argue against a disorderly dollar squeeze this week.
Retail foreign exchange covers dollars that commercial banks buy from customers (purchases, dollar supply) and sell to customers (sales, dollar demand). Total retail turnover edged down to USD 575.68 million from USD 604.89 million (−USD 29.21 million, −4.8%). Trade (USD 172.34 million), Oil and Energy (USD 80.55 million) and Agriculture (USD 78.09 million) were the three biggest sectors, together USD 330.98 million or 57.5% of the week. Over the past month daily retail turnover averaged USD 125.79 million, made up of USD 64.31 million of purchases and USD 61.48 million of sales.
| Sector | Previous week (USD m) | This week (USD m) | Swing in net, USD m | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purch. | Sales | Net | Purch. | Sales | Net | ||
| Trade | 97.56 | 83.72 | +13.84 | 84.15 | 88.19 | −4.04 | −17.88 |
| Oil & Energy | 7.73 | 57.06 | −49.33 | 11.49 | 69.06 | −57.57 | −8.24 |
| Agriculture | 62.74 | 10.27 | +52.47 | 64.28 | 13.81 | +50.47 | −2.00 |
| Manufacturing | 10.29 | 27.99 | −17.70 | 13.90 | 37.24 | −23.34 | −5.64 |
| Individual retail customers | 25.38 | 15.84 | +9.54 | 18.82 | 17.20 | +1.62 | −7.92 |
| Mining | 65.77 | 8.41 | +57.36 | 26.08 | 9.76 | +16.32 | −41.04 |
| Tourism | 24.81 | 2.07 | +22.74 | 28.55 | 3.92 | +24.63 | +1.89 |
| Transport & Communication | 29.80 | 6.03 | +23.77 | 21.16 | 10.12 | +11.04 | −12.73 |
| Construction (machinery & equipment) | 19.44 | 19.73 | −0.29 | 9.92 | 13.50 | −3.58 | −3.29 |
| Social services | 10.44 | 5.31 | +5.13 | 11.58 | 5.56 | +6.02 | +0.89 |
| NGOs | 9.05 | 2.37 | +6.68 | 12.01 | 0.42 | +11.59 | +4.91 |
| Breweries / Beverages | 0.13 | 2.96 | −2.83 | 0.75 | 4.19 | −3.44 | −0.61 |
| Total | 363.12 | 241.77 | +121.35 | 302.69 | 272.99 | +29.70 | −91.65 |
Table 2.1. Weekly commercial banks' retail FX transactions by sector. Purchases and sales are from the Bank of Tanzania (Table 2); "net" is purchases minus sales, i.e. dollars banks absorbed from customers minus dollars they supplied (TICGL/TERI calc.). Small differences from the Bank's published totals are rounding.
Mining banks' dollar purchases fell by more than half, USD 65.77 million to USD 26.08 million, taking mining's net inflow from USD 57.36 million to USD 16.32 million. Mining is lumpy because export receipts arrive in batches, so one week of weak purchases may be timing. It matters for the IFEM because mining was the largest single supplier of dollars to banks the week before, so its fade leaves some banks short relative to customer demand.
Banks sold USD 69.06 million to oil and energy customers, up 21.0%, and total sector turnover rose 24.3% to USD 80.55 million. This is the single largest net user of dollars in the retail market (net −USD 57.57 million) and the one most exposed to month-end settlement. Manufacturing, the next biggest user, saw sales rise 33.1% to USD 37.24 million.
The sector table describes customers' dealings with commercial banks, not the interbank counterparties. It is the best available explanation of why banks needed to trade among themselves more, but the IFEM data are not broken down by sector. The link between mining and oil flows and IFEM volume is therefore an inference from timing and direction, and should be tested again with next week's report.
The Bank of Tanzania's indicative mean rate for the US dollar closed the week at TZS 2,636.74, from TZS 2,633.12, a depreciation of the shilling of 0.14%. The shilling weakened most against sterling (1.09%), the yen (0.63%), the renminbi and the rupee (0.39% each), and by smaller amounts against the euro (0.06%) and the Kenyan shilling (0.14%). It strengthened against the Ugandan shilling, whose rate fell from TZS 0.65 to TZS 0.61 (−5.79% as published; the two-decimal rates round heavily).
| Currency | 16 Oct 2026 (TZS) | 23 Oct 2026 (TZS) | Change (%) | Direction for the shilling |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| British Pound Sterling | 3,487.83 | 3,525.85 | +1.09 | Weaker |
| Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) | 393.52 | 395.06 | +0.39 | Weaker |
| Euro | 2,950.67 | 2,952.36 | +0.06 | Broadly unchanged |
| Indian Rupee | 27.70 | 27.81 | +0.39 | Weaker |
| Japanese Yen | 16.67 | 16.78 | +0.63 | Weaker |
| Kenyan Shilling | 20.25 | 20.28 | +0.14 | Broadly unchanged |
| Rwandan Franc | 1.78 | 1.78 | +0.09 | Broadly unchanged |
| Ugandan Shilling | 0.65 | 0.61 | −5.79 | Stronger |
| United States Dollar | 2,633.12 | 2,636.74 | +0.14 | Slightly weaker |
Table 3.1. Selected exchange rates, TZS per unit of foreign currency. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 1. A positive change means the foreign currency became more expensive in shillings.
A move of 0.14% against the dollar in a week in which interbank volume tripled is small. It shows the extra dollar trading cleared without forcing a price move. The bigger moves against sterling and the yen are largely about those currencies' own movements against the dollar, since the shilling's rate to the dollar barely changed. Importers paying in sterling saw the sharpest cost increase this week.
The interbank cash market (IBCM) is where banks lend each other shillings. Its weighted average rate (WAR) closed the week at 6.59%, down from 6.68%. The 7-day weekly WAR averaged 6.42%, inside the Central Bank Rate corridor of 4.75% to 7.75% and 17 basis points above the Central Bank Rate (CBR) of 6.25%. Total 7-day trading volume fell to TZS 587.45 billion from TZS 812.65 billion. The Bank ran its 7-day reverse repo through main operations at the CBR, injecting TZS 774.96 billion, down from TZS 892.50 billion.
This week's evidence is consistent with a smooth chain. The 7-day cash rate was 6.16% to 6.59% every day this week, volume dipped to TZS 28.0 billion on Wednesday 21 October (the same day IFEM trading reached USD 17.60 million and Treasury bill auction 1209 was held) and recovered to TZS 143.1 billion the next day. We note the coincidence but cannot infer causality from one week. The practical point is that shilling funding did not tighten as dollar trading surged.
The Bank describes a weekly WAR 17 bps above the CBR as "consistent with the Bank's policy stance". Rates a little above the policy rate with active reverse repos mean the central bank is meeting demand for liquidity at the policy rate, not leaving banks to bid it up. A rise of the WAR toward the 7.75% corridor ceiling would be the sign of real stress.
Outstanding government securities stand at TZS 34,217.52 billion, of which Treasury bonds are TZS 30,537.77 billion (89.25%) and Treasury bills TZS 3,679.76 billion (10.75%). Banks (34.43%), pension funds (29.70%) and retail investors (17.70%) hold the biggest shares. The Bank of Tanzania reports that 4,015 new clients have been onboarded in the current fiscal year, bringing registered clients to 35,517.
| Investor category | Face value (TZS bn) | Share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Banks | 11,780.30 | 34.43 |
| Pension funds | 10,162.80 | 29.70 |
| Retail investors | 6,055.95 | 17.70 |
| CIS and other official entities | 2,757.91 | 8.06 |
| Insurance companies | 2,475.06 | 7.23 |
| Others | 985.51 | 2.88 |
| Total | 34,217.52 | 100.00 |
Table 5.1. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 3.
The auction offered 35, 91, 182 and 364-day bills and attracted 88 bids, of which 65 were successful. TZS 457.58 billion was tendered against TZS 388.70 billion offered, an aggregate oversubscription of TZS 68.88 billion, and TZS 360.90 billion was allotted. The aggregate masks a split: the two short tenors were undersubscribed (bid-to-cover 0.80x and 0.74x), while 182 and 364-day bills were oversubscribed (1.26x and 1.42x). Banks accounted for 100% of subscriptions and allotments.
| Item | 35 days | 91 days | 182 days | 364 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maturity date | 26 Nov 2026 | 21 Jan 2027 | 22 Apr 2027 | 21 Oct 2027 |
| Bids received / successful | 9 / 9 | 14 / 14 | 30 / 25 | 35 / 17 |
| Highest bid (per 100) | 99.7418 | 99.2576 | 97.7101 | 94.4342 |
| Lowest bid (per 100) | 99.6161 | 98.9846 | 96.8551 | 91.5544 |
| Minimum successful price (per 100) | 99.6161 | 98.9846 | 97.0481 | 94.0710 |
| WAP, successful bids (per 100) | 99.6619 | 99.1017 | 97.2971 | 94.2353 |
| Weighted average yield (%) | 3.54 | 3.64 | 5.57 | 6.13 |
| Amount offered (TZS m) | 49,900.0 | 69,900.0 | 99,900.0 | 169,000.0 |
| Total tendered (TZS m) | 40,000.0 | 52,000.0 | 125,500.0 | 240,080.0 |
| Tendered minus offered (TZS m) | −9,900.0 | −17,900.0 | +25,600.0 | +71,080.0 |
| Successful bids (TZS m) | 40,000.0 | 52,000.0 | 99,900.0 | 169,000.0 |
| Bid-to-cover ratio | 0.80x | 0.74x | 1.26x | 1.42x |
Table 5.2. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 5. The Bank prints "under/oversubscribed" with the opposite sign to the one used here (it shows +9,900.0 for the 35-day bill, which was undersubscribed); this page shows tendered minus offered so that oversubscription is positive. The four allotments sum to TZS 360.90 billion.
Bidding was cautious at the very short end: the 35 and 91-day bills yield only 3.5–3.6%, well under the 6.25% policy rate and under the 6.1–6.7% daily interbank rates, which may explain why those tenors were undersubscribed (TICGL/TERI interpretation; the report gives no reason). The 364-day yield of 6.13% is the only tenor close to the policy rate. The Bank has also scheduled the next auction for Wednesday 28 October 2026, when a 20-year Treasury bond will be offered under the issuance calendar.
One week of data cannot establish a trend, so this tab sets out three illustrative paths for the next few weeks and the indicators in the Bank's weekly report that would distinguish them. The bands are TICGL/TERI illustrations anchored on the 2026 weekly IFEM pace (about USD 35 million) and this week's level, not forecasts.
| Path | IFEM weekly turnover | Retail net dollar position | Shilling and rates |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Orderly normalisation | Falls back toward USD 25–40m, near the 2026 pace | Mining purchases recover; net surplus rebuilds above the month's average pace (about USD 14m a week) | USD/TZS drifts within a narrow range; WAR stays near the 6.25% CBR |
| B. Elevated and two-way | Stays USD 45–65m as banks keep rebalancing | Surplus stays thin, but positive | Mild shilling weakness; WAR near 6.4–6.7%; reverse repos continue |
| C. Dollar-demand squeeze | Stays high or rises further | Net surplus turns negative (sales above purchases) for more than one week, led by oil, manufacturing and trade | Faster depreciation; WAR moves toward the upper corridor; more official operations likely |
Table 6.1. Illustrative paths. Based on the single week reported; no probabilities are attached.
| Indicator | This week | Signal to watch |
|---|---|---|
| IFEM turnover | USD 60.80m | Stays above the USD 35m 2026 weekly pace or fades |
| Retail net dollar surplus | USD 29.70m | Turns negative, or rebuilds |
| Sales-to-purchases ratio | 0.90 (0.67 last week; 0.96 month average) | Rises toward or above 1.0 |
| Mining purchases | USD 26.08m | Rebound toward the USD 65m of the prior week |
| Oil & Energy sales | USD 69.06m | Further increase beyond USD 70m a week |
| USD / TZS | 2,636.74 | Weekly move well above 0.14% |
| IBCM 7-day WAR | 6.59% (CBR 6.25%) | Moves toward the 7.75% corridor ceiling |
| Reverse repo injection | TZS 774.96bn | Return above TZS 890bn |
| 20-year bond auction, 28 Oct | Scheduled | Bid-to-cover and the yield level relative to the T-bill curve |
Defaults are this report's figures. Change them to test next week's turnover against the 2026 pace.
Enter a week's bank purchases from customers and sales to customers (Table 2 totals).
Triple the volume with a 0.14% price move is a market absorbing a rebalancing. The test is the next two weeks: if mining supply stays weak while oil and manufacturing demand stays firm, the retail surplus, not the interbank volume, is the number that will tell us the dollar cushion is thinning.
TICGL/TERI reading of the Bank of Tanzania weekly data, October 2026The weekly market data matter most when they feed a decision: pricing an import contract, timing an export receipt, setting a project's FX assumptions or sizing a shilling funding line. TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, turns these readings into decision tools: market research and economic intelligence, feasibility and financial models with FX and interest-rate sensitivities, and market-entry support.
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What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →Book a consultation →✉️ economist@ticgl.comSource report. Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 19–23 October 2026 (six pages: foreign exchange, money market, government securities). Calculations. Net retail positions, sector swings, multiples, per-day and per-week averages, cumulative series, share-of-month figures and the month-average net pace are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on the Bank's published figures. Limitations. One week of data; the report gives IFEM turnover without direction or counterparties.
| Item | Treatment on this page |
|---|---|
| Purchases and sales in retail FX | Read as the banks' purchases of dollars from customers (dollar supply) and sales of dollars to customers (dollar demand); "net" is purchases minus sales. |
| Previous week trading days | The Bank's IFEM chart for 12–16 October has no bar for 14 October and the IBCM chart shows four daily observations; 14 October is a public holiday (Nyerere Day), which is TICGL/TERI context, not stated in the report. Per-day comparisons use four days for last week. |
| Monthly IFEM series | Values read in order from the Bank's Chart 3 (January 2024 to October 2026, 34 bars). The October 2026 bar is treated as month to date, which is an assumption. |
| 2024, 2025 and 2026 averages | Sums of the monthly bars: 2024 USD 611.1m (avg 50.9m); 2025 USD 1,183.1m (avg 98.6m); 2026 January–September USD 1,369.6m (avg 152.2m). Weekly pace = monthly average ÷ 4.345. |
| Month-average retail net | The Bank states past-month daily averages of USD 64.31m purchases and USD 61.48m sales; the net of USD 2.83m a day is multiplied by five for a weekly pace of about USD 14.15m. The report does not say how many days the month covers. |
| Auction 1209 sign convention | The Bank prints "under/oversubscribed" as offered minus tendered; this page shows tendered minus offered. |
| Registered clients by year | Fiscal-year labels for Chart 9 are inferred (15 bars ending with the current year); only the current-year 4,015 and the total 35,517 are stated in text. |
| Not charted | The monthly retail FX turnover (Chart 4), the daily retail moving average (Chart 5) and the sovereign yield curve (Chart 10) are not reproduced because their values are not given in the report's text. The T-bill yields by tenor are used instead. |
| Rounding | The Ugandan shilling's change (−5.79%) is as published; two-decimal rates (0.65 and 0.61) imply a different figure. Totals may differ from component sums by rounding. |
IFEM turnover rose to USD 60.80 million from USD 19.70 million the week before, an increase of USD 41.10 million, or about 209 percent, roughly 3.1 times. The previous week also appears to have had only four trading days, but even per trading day the rise is about 2.5 times.
Only slightly. The shilling closed at TZS 2,636.74 per US dollar, up 0.14 percent from TZS 2,633.12, so the tripling of interbank volume was absorbed with almost no price move.
The retail data are consistent with both playing a role, though the weekly report does not identify IFEM counterparties. Mining dollar purchases by banks fell about 60 percent from USD 65.77 million to USD 26.08 million, while oil and energy dollar sales rose about 21 percent from USD 57.06 million to USD 69.06 million.
Not on the evidence in the report. Retail banks still bought more dollars (USD 302.69 million) than they sold (USD 272.99 million), a net surplus of USD 29.70 million. But that surplus was only a quarter of the previous week's USD 121.35 million, so the cushion is thinner.
The 7-day interbank cash market weighted average rate closed at 6.59 percent, down from 6.68 percent, and averaged 6.42 percent for the week, 17 basis points above the Central Bank Rate of 6.25 percent and inside the 4.75 to 7.75 percent corridor.
On 21 October 2026 the Bank of Tanzania allotted TZS 360.90 billion against TZS 457.58 billion tendered. Weighted average yields were 3.5379 percent for 35 days, 3.6357 percent for 91 days, 5.5712 percent for 182 days and 6.1342 percent for 364 days. Banks took 100 percent of the allotment.
Watch whether weekly IFEM volume stays above the 2026 pace of about USD 35 million, whether the retail net dollar surplus keeps shrinking, mining purchases and oil sales by banks, the 7-day interbank rate against the 6.25 percent policy rate, and the 28 October 20-year Treasury bond auction.
Soko la fedha za kigeni kati ya benki (IFEM) limeongezeka mara tatu kwa wiki moja: kutoka USD milioni 19.70 hadi USD milioni 60.80. Katika wiki ya tarehe 19 hadi 23 Oktoba 2026, shilingi ilifunga kwa TZS 2,636.74 kwa dola moja, ikipungua thamani kwa asilimia 0.14 tu kutoka TZS 2,633.12. Yaani, kiasi cha biashara kiliongezeka sana lakini bei ilibadilika kidogo mno. Uchambuzi huu wa TICGL/TERI unatumia ripoti ya wiki ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT) kueleza kilichotokea.
Ongezeko lilikuwa kubwa na lilijikita mwishoni mwa wiki: Jumatatu USD milioni 7.60, Jumanne 4.30, kisha Jumatano 17.60, Alhamisi 12.20 na Ijumaa 19.10. Siku tatu za mwisho zilibeba takriban asilimia 80 ya wiki nzima. Wiki iliyotangulia ilionekana kuwa na siku nne za biashara (tarehe 14 Oktoba ni sikukuu ya Nyerere), lakini hata kwa wastani wa siku, ongezeko ni takriban mara 2.5.
Je, ni mtiririko mkubwa wa mitaji au biashara kubwa? Ripoti haitoi wahusika wa IFEM, kwa hiyo hatuwezi kuthibitisha. Takwimu za rejareja zinaonyesha chanzo kinachowezekana zaidi: wiki iliyotangulia benki zilinunua dola nyingi sana kutoka kwa wateja (ziada halisi ya USD milioni 121.35), na wiki hii ziada hiyo ilishuka hadi USD milioni 29.70 (upungufu wa asilimia 75.5). Benki zilizokuwa na dola nyingi zilihitaji kufanya biashara kidogo kati yao; nafasi zilipotofautiana, biashara kati ya benki ilipanda.
Uhusiano na Mafuta na Nishati (Oil & Energy) na Madini (Mining): Ununuzi wa dola wa sekta ya Madini ulishuka kwa asilimia 60.3 (USD milioni 65.77 hadi 26.08), ukiwa sababu kubwa zaidi ya kupungua kwa ziada halisi (USD milioni 41.04 kati ya 91.65). Mauzo ya dola kwa sekta ya Mafuta na Nishati yalipanda asilimia 21.0 (USD milioni 57.06 hadi 69.06), na Viwanda (Manufacturing) asilimia 33.1. Kwa ujumla, upande wa usambazaji wa dola ulidhoofika na upande wa mahitaji uliimarika.
Je, ni shinikizo la kutoa au kuingiza dola? Ni mabadiliko kuelekea mahitaji ya dola ikilinganishwa na wiki iliyopita, lakini si uhaba. Benki bado zilinunua dola nyingi (USD milioni 302.69) kuliko zilivyouza (272.99), na shilingi ilisogea kwa asilimia 0.14 tu. Kiashiria cha kufuatilia ni kama ziada hiyo itaendelea kupungua na kuwa hasi.
Soko la fedha la shilingi: Riba ya siku 7 ya soko la fedha kati ya benki (IBCM) ilifunga kwa asilimia 6.59 (kutoka 6.68), wastani wa wiki 6.42, ambao ni pointi 17 juu ya Riba ya Benki Kuu (CBR) ya asilimia 6.25 na ndani ya ukanda wa asilimia 4.75 hadi 7.75. BoT iliingiza TZS bilioni 774.96 kupitia Reverse Repo (wiki iliyopita bilioni 892.50). Dhamana za Serikali: mnada wa hati fungani za muda mfupi (Na. 1209, tarehe 21 Oktoba) uligawa TZS bilioni 360.90; mavuno yalikuwa asilimia 3.54 (siku 35), 3.64 (siku 91), 5.57 (siku 182) na 6.13 (siku 364); benki zilichukua asilimia 100. Mnada ujao ni Jumatano 28 Oktoba 2026 (hatifungani ya miaka 20).
Hitimisho: Kuongezeka mara tatu kwa IFEM ni ishara ya benki kugawana upya dola baada ya ziada ya wateja kupungua, si dalili ya uhaba wa dola. Wiki mbili zijazo zitaonyesha kama ni hali ya muda au mwelekeo mpya.
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report (19–23 Oktoba 2026); mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.
Total retail foreign exchange turnover slipped only 4.8% in the week to 23 October 2026, from USD 604.89 million to USD 575.68 million. Underneath, the mix moved sharply. Mining turnover fell from USD 74.18 million to USD 35.84 million (−51.7%), Oil & Energy rose from USD 64.78 million to USD 80.55 million (+24.3%), while Trade and Agriculture stayed the market's anchors. Strip out mining and the retail market grew about 1.7%. This page looks at who supplies and who uses dollars in Tanzania's banks, what could explain this week's shifts, and how they feed into the shilling.
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 19–23 October 2026 (Table 2, Section 1.3, Table 1). Shares, net positions, contributions and shock arithmetic are TICGL/TERI calculations on the Bank's published figures.
Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; it is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. The data cover customers' dealings with commercial banks over one week. "Purchases" are read as dollars banks bought from customers (dollar supply) and "sales" as dollars banks sold to customers (dollar demand). The report does not explain sector moves, so the drivers on this page are hypotheses ranked by how well the data fit them.
Retail FX covers dollars that commercial banks buy from and sell to their customers. A flat total says little; the sector mix says a lot. Last week Mining was the second-largest source of dollars to banks (USD 65.77 million of purchases, 18.1% of supply). This week it was fourth (USD 26.08 million, 8.6%). Agriculture, Tourism and Trade filled much of the gap. On the demand side, Oil & Energy increased its draw to USD 69.06 million, now 25.3% of all dollars banks sold, and Manufacturing rose to USD 37.24 million. The net effect was a retail dollar surplus (purchases minus sales) that fell from USD 121.35 million to USD 29.70 million.
The retail dollar market is more dependent on fewer sectors than it looks: Trade, Agriculture and Tourism now carry the supply side while Oil & Energy and Manufacturing carry the demand side. Mining's swing, large and lumpy, can move the whole market's balance in a week. This week the shilling absorbed it. The next tabs explain the sector map, the likely drivers, and how big a shock would need to be to push the shilling.
| Sector | Previous week (USD m) | This week (USD m) | Change in turnover, USD m | Change, % | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purch. | Sales | Total | Purch. | Sales | Total | |||
| Trade | 97.56 | 83.72 | 181.28 | 84.15 | 88.19 | 172.34 | −8.94 | −4.9 |
| Oil & Energy | 7.73 | 57.06 | 64.78 | 11.49 | 69.06 | 80.55 | +15.77 | +24.3 |
| Agriculture | 62.74 | 10.27 | 73.01 | 64.28 | 13.81 | 78.09 | +5.08 | +7.0 |
| Manufacturing | 10.29 | 27.99 | 38.28 | 13.90 | 37.24 | 51.15 | +12.87 | +33.6 |
| Individual retail customers | 25.38 | 15.84 | 41.22 | 18.82 | 17.20 | 36.02 | −5.20 | −12.6 |
| Mining | 65.77 | 8.41 | 74.18 | 26.08 | 9.76 | 35.84 | −38.34 | −51.7 |
| Tourism | 24.81 | 2.07 | 26.88 | 28.55 | 3.92 | 32.48 | +5.60 | +20.8 |
| Transport & Communication | 29.80 | 6.03 | 35.84 | 21.16 | 10.12 | 31.29 | −4.55 | −12.7 |
| Construction (mach. & equip.) | 19.44 | 19.73 | 39.17 | 9.92 | 13.50 | 23.42 | −15.75 | −40.2 |
| Social services | 10.44 | 5.31 | 15.75 | 11.58 | 5.56 | 17.15 | +1.40 | +8.9 |
| NGOs | 9.05 | 2.37 | 11.42 | 12.01 | 0.42 | 12.43 | +1.01 | +8.8 |
| Breweries / Beverages | 0.13 | 2.96 | 3.09 | 0.75 | 4.19 | 4.93 | +1.84 | +59.5 |
| Total | 363.12 | 241.77 | 604.89 | 302.69 | 272.99 | 575.68 | −29.21 | −4.8 |
Table 1.1. Weekly commercial banks' retail FX by sector. Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2; changes and percentages are TICGL/TERI calculations.
The three biggest sectors by turnover (Trade, Oil & Energy, Agriculture) made up 57.5% of the week, up from 54.3% for the top three the week before (Trade, Mining, Agriculture). On the supply side, Trade, Agriculture and Tourism provided 58.5% of dollars bought this week, against 51.0% a week earlier, so the supply base became more reliant on fewer, steadier sectors after mining pulled back.
Mining's net inflow to banks fell from USD 57.36 million to USD 16.32 million. Mining firms convert export receipts in batches, so a single week can swing sharply for reasons of timing: shipment dates, when proceeds are repatriated, and how long firms hold dollar balances. Mining remained a net supplier, but at 45% of its turnover versus 77% a week earlier. In shilling terms, the USD 41.04 million drop in mining's net position is about TZS 108 billion at TZS 2,636.74.
Oil and energy buys dollars almost one way: sales to the sector were 86% of its turnover this week. The USD 69.06 million bought is about 25% of all dollars banks sold. Because fuel imports are priced in dollars and needed regardless of the exchange rate, this demand is hard to defer, so it tends to rise when supply thins. The report gives no volume or price breakdown, so it cannot separate more fuel imported from higher fuel prices.
| Sector | What changed | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Trade | Purchases −USD 13.41m, sales +USD 4.47m; net +13.84 to −4.04 | Largest sector and the biggest swing in net after Mining; importers and exporters now offset each other. |
| Agriculture | Purchases +USD 1.54m to 64.28m; sales +3.54m | Stable dollar supplier, now 21.2% of supply. |
| Tourism | Purchases +USD 3.74m to 28.55m (+15.1%) | Third-largest supplier by share of purchases (9.4%), ahead of Mining this week. |
| Manufacturing | Sales +USD 9.25m (+33.1%) to 37.24m | Second-largest net user of dollars after Oil & Energy; ties to input and equipment imports. |
| Transport & Communication | Purchases −USD 8.64m; net +23.77 to +11.04 | A quiet source of supply that halved. |
| Construction | Purchases −9.52m, sales −6.23m; total −40.2% | Both sides fell; may reflect project or equipment-payment timing. |
| Individual retail customers | Purchases −6.56m; net +9.54 to +1.62 | Household supply of dollars nearly disappeared as net. |
Table 2.1. TICGL/TERI reading of Table 2 of the Bank's weekly report.
The Bank's report publishes the flows, not the reasons. The table below sets out the most plausible drivers for each major shift, what in the data supports them, and what to look for next week. "Fit" rates how well the published data support each driver, not the probability that it is true.
| Shift | Candidate driver | What the data show | What would confirm it | Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining purchases −60% | Export-receipt timing | Mining sales hardly changed (+USD 1.35m); only purchases fell, as if a batch of receipts was converted the week before. | Mining purchases back toward USD 40–65m within 1–2 weeks | Strong |
| Firms holding dollars longer | A fall in sales to the bank with no matching rise elsewhere is consistent with holding balances; not visible in this report. | Foreign-currency deposit data in the monthly review | Possible | |
| Lower mineral export volumes or prices | One week cannot show a price or volume trend. | Export values in the next monthly review | Not testable here | |
| Oil & Energy sales +21% | Import settlement and month-end payments | Sales rose through a week ending near month-end; the demand is concentrated in one sector. | Sales stay above USD 65m into November | Strong |
| Higher import bill or stock rebuilding | Cannot separate volume from price in the data. | Fuel import data; pump-price announcements | Possible | |
| Manufacturing sales +33% | Input and equipment imports | Sales +USD 9.25m, purchases +USD 3.61m; classic user profile. | Persistence over two weeks | Strong |
| Trade net flips to a user | Importers' payments rising while exporters' receipts fall | Purchases −USD 13.41m; sales +USD 4.47m. | Trade net stays negative | Partial |
| Construction −40% | Project payment timing | Both purchases and sales fell, which points to fewer transactions and not a one-way move. | Rebound next week | Partial |
| Agriculture and Tourism steady or up | Seasonal export and visitor inflows | Agriculture purchases +USD 1.54m; Tourism +USD 3.74m. Seasonal patterns suggest autumn is within the main crop-marketing and early high-season period (general context, not shown in the report). | Continued purchases in coming weeks | Consistent |
Table 3.1. TICGL/TERI assessment from one week of data. Seasonal remarks are general context and should be verified against export and arrivals data.
The week's pattern shows an asymmetry that matters for the shilling: supply from export sectors (especially Mining) can drop by half in a week, while demand from fuel, manufacturing inputs and trade rises or holds. When both happen at once the net surplus falls quickly; when supply returns it can rebuild just as fast, as last week's USD 121 million shows.
The shilling closed the week at TZS 2,636.74 per US dollar, a 0.14% depreciation from TZS 2,633.12 (TZS 3.62). That is small. The question is whether the sector shifts could turn into something larger, so this tab traces the channels and sizes the shocks.
The surplus of USD 29.70 million is the cushion between dollars coming in and dollars going out through banks. The table asks how large a single move would have to be to remove it, holding everything else equal. These are arithmetic illustrations, not forecasts.
| Single change | Base this week (USD m) | Change needed (USD m) | As % of base |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total dollar sales rise | 272.99 | +29.70 | +10.9% |
| Total dollar purchases fall | 302.69 | −29.70 | −9.8% |
| Oil & Energy sales rise | 69.06 | +29.70 | +43.0% |
| Manufacturing sales rise | 37.24 | +29.70 | +79.8% |
| Trade purchases fall | 84.15 | −29.70 | −35.3% |
| Agriculture purchases fall | 64.28 | −29.70 | −46.2% |
| Mining purchases fall to zero | 26.08 | −26.08 (maximum) | −100% is not enough |
Table 4.1. TICGL/TERI arithmetic on the Bank's Table 2 totals. Mining alone can no longer erase the surplus because most of its supply has already gone; the risk now comes from broad-based demand growth or a fall in the steadier suppliers.
The USD 3.62 rise in the dollar price cost customers who bought dollars from banks roughly TZS 1.0 billion more across the week's USD 272.99 million of sales (about TZS 0.25 billion for Oil & Energy's USD 69.06 million). The number is small; its value is in showing that for sectors that buy about 25% of the market's dollars, each 1% move in the rate adds about TZS 1.8 billion a week to the fuel import bill at the current volume (USD 69.06m × TZS 26.4).
Oil and energy and manufacturing buy dollars to import goods whose shilling cost passes into fuel, transport and input prices. The sectors that supply dollars (Mining, Agriculture, Tourism) benefit when the shilling weakens. A depreciation therefore moves income between these groups as well as affecting prices.
Starting point is this week (net +USD 29.70m). Enter percent changes to selected flows; the page shows the new net position and what it is worth in TZS billion at TZS 2,636.74. Mining purchases cannot fall below zero.
The paths below are illustrative and rest on one week of data. No probabilities are attached.
| Path | Mining purchases | Oil, Manufacturing, Trade demand | Net surplus and shilling |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mining rebounds | Back toward USD 40–65m | Stable | Net surplus rebuilds above USD 30m; shilling steady |
| B. Mining stays low, demand firm | Stays near USD 26m | Oil sales stay near USD 70m; manufacturing near USD 37m | Net surplus thin but positive; mild shilling weakness; IFEM stays active |
| C. Broad demand squeeze | Stays low | Sales rise 10% or more across oil, manufacturing and trade; steady suppliers (Agriculture, Tourism) soften | Net surplus turns negative; faster depreciation; more official operations likely |
Table 5.1. Illustrative paths, TICGL/TERI.
| Indicator | This week | Signal to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Mining purchases | USD 26.08m | Rebound toward USD 65m, or a second weak week |
| Oil & Energy sales | USD 69.06m | Above USD 70m again, or back below USD 60m |
| Net retail surplus | USD 29.70m | Falls below zero |
| Share of supply from Trade, Agriculture, Tourism | 58.5% | Falls if steady suppliers soften |
| Sales ÷ purchases | 0.90 | Approaches or exceeds 1.0 |
| USD/TZS weekly change | +0.14% | Persistent moves above 0.5% a week |
Request a briefing on sector FX flows for your business, or a scoping call for a feasibility, market-entry or market-research study with FX and pricing scenarios.
What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →Book a consultation →✉️ economist@ticgl.comThe shilling did not move this week, but the dollar cushion did. Watch Mining's purchases and Oil & Energy's sales: they are the two numbers that decide whether a thin surplus stays positive.
TICGL/TERI reading of the Bank of Tanzania weekly data, October 2026Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 19–23 October 2026 (Table 1, Table 2, Sections 1.1–1.3, 2.1). Calculations. Shares, changes, net positions, contributions, shock sizes and shilling conversions are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on the Bank's published figures. Limitations. One week; sector totals are customers' dealings with commercial banks; the report does not state reasons for sector moves.
| Item | Treatment on this page |
|---|---|
| Purchases and sales | Read as banks' purchases of dollars from customers (supply) and sales of dollars to customers (demand). Net = purchases − sales. |
| Totals and rounding | Sector totals follow the Bank's published column; some differ from purchases + sales by 0.01 due to rounding. |
| Shilling conversions | USD amounts × TZS 2,636.74 (23 October indicative mean rate). |
| Ex-mining turnover | Total minus Mining: USD 604.89m − 74.18m = 530.71m last week; USD 575.68m − 35.84m = 539.84m this week. |
| Supply shares | Trade, Agriculture and Tourism: (97.56 + 62.74 + 24.81) ÷ 363.12 = 51.0% last week; (84.15 + 64.28 + 28.55) ÷ 302.69 = 58.5% this week. |
| Oil and fuel import sensitivity | Illustrative: USD 69.06m of weekly dollar sales × 1% of TZS 2,636.74 = TZS 1.82bn. It assumes unchanged volumes. |
| Seasonal remarks | General context only; not in the Bank's report. |
Total retail foreign exchange turnover fell 4.8 percent to USD 575.68 million from USD 604.89 million. Excluding mining, turnover actually rose about 1.7 percent, from USD 530.71 million to USD 539.84 million.
Mining turnover fell 51.7 percent, from USD 74.18 million to USD 35.84 million. The whole fall came from bank purchases of dollars from mining customers, which dropped from USD 65.77 million to USD 26.08 million.
Oil and energy turnover rose 24.3 percent to USD 80.55 million, mostly because banks sold USD 69.06 million to the sector, up from USD 57.06 million. The report does not give the reason; likely candidates are import settlement timing and month-end payments.
Yes. Banks bought USD 302.69 million from customers and sold USD 272.99 million, a net surplus of USD 29.70 million, down 75.5 percent from USD 121.35 million the week before.
Illustratively, a rise of about 11 percent in total dollar sales, a fall of about 10 percent in total purchases, or a rise of about 43 percent in oil and energy sales alone. Even if mining purchases fell to zero the surplus would not disappear.
So far very little. The shilling closed at TZS 2,636.74 per dollar, a 0.14 percent depreciation. The risk is not this week's move but whether weak mining supply and firm oil and manufacturing demand persist.
Jumla ya Retail FX ilipungua kidogo, lakini sekta zimebadilika sana. Katika wiki ya tarehe 19 hadi 23 Oktoba 2026, mauzo na ununuzi wa dola kati ya benki za biashara na wateja ulishuka kutoka USD milioni 604.89 hadi 575.68 (asilimia 4.8). Ukiondoa sekta ya Madini, soko liliongezeka kwa takriban asilimia 1.7. Mabadiliko ya sekta ndiyo habari halisi.
Madini (Mining) yalishuka sana: kiasi cha jumla kilishuka kutoka USD milioni 74.18 hadi 35.84 (asilimia 51.7). Sababu ni benki kununua dola chache kutoka kwa wateja wa madini: kutoka USD milioni 65.77 hadi 26.08 (asilimia 60.3). Mauzo ya dola kwa sekta hii hayakubadilika karibu hata kidogo. Anguko la Madini peke yake (USD milioni 38.34) ni kubwa kuliko anguko lote la soko (29.21).
Mafuta na Nishati (Oil & Energy) yaliongezeka: kutoka USD milioni 64.78 hadi 80.55 (asilimia 24.3). Benki ziliuza dola nyingi zaidi kwa sekta hii (USD milioni 57.06 hadi 69.06), ikiwa sasa karibu robo ya dola zote zinazouzwa. Viwanda (Manufacturing) pia viliongezeka asilimia 33.6, na Ujenzi (Construction) ulishuka asilimia 40.2.
Biashara (Trade) na Kilimo (Agriculture) bado ni nguzo: Biashara ni sekta kubwa zaidi (USD milioni 172.34), lakini ilibadilika kutoka kuwa msambazaji halisi wa dola (+13.84) hadi mtumiaji mdogo (−4.04). Kilimo kinaendelea kusambaza takriban USD milioni 50 kwa jumla halisi, na sehemu yake ya ugavi wa dola imepanda kutoka asilimia 17.3 hadi 21.2.
Nini kinaendesha mabadiliko haya? Ripoti haitoi sababu, kwa hiyo haya ni dhana za TICGL/TERI: (1) muda wa kupokea mapato ya mauzo ya nje kwa Madini; (2) malipo ya uagizaji wa mafuta na ya mwisho wa mwezi; (3) uagizaji wa malighafi na vifaa kwa viwanda; (4) msimu wa mauzo ya Kilimo na Utalii. Ugavi wa dola kutoka sekta za mauzo ya nje hubadilika-badilika, wakati mahitaji ya mafuta na malighafi ni magumu kuahirishwa.
Athari kwa shilingi: Ziada halisi ya dola ilishuka kutoka USD milioni 121.35 hadi 29.70 (asilimia 75.5), lakini bado ni chanya. Shilingi ilifunga TZS 2,636.74 kwa dola, ikipungua thamani kwa asilimia 0.14 tu. Kwa hesabu ya mfano, ili ziada hiyo iishe ingehitajika ongezeko la takriban asilimia 11 la mauzo ya dola, au kupungua kwa asilimia 10 la ununuzi, au ongezeko la asilimia 43 la mauzo kwa Mafuta na Nishati peke yake. Hatari kuu ni kama hali hii itaendelea kwa wiki kadhaa.
Hitimisho: Soko la dola la rejareja linategemea sekta chache: Biashara, Kilimo na Utalii upande wa ugavi; Mafuta na Nishati na Viwanda upande wa mahitaji. Fuatilia ununuzi wa Madini na mauzo ya Mafuta na Nishati kila wiki.
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report (19–23 Oktoba 2026); mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.
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The official Expression of Interest document (TICGL-EOI-2026-001) contains the full terms of reference, eligibility requirements, application guidelines, and contractual framework for joining the TICGL Expert Network. Download and review it before submitting your application.
Please read the full document before applying. For enquiries: consultancy@ticgl.com
Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd (TICGL) inawakaribisha wachumi, washauri wa sera za kiuchumi, uwekezaji na ubia wa umma na binafsi (PPP), wataalamu wa ukaguzi wa kina (due diligence), utafiti wa soko, uchumi jumla na masoko ya mitaji, pamoja na wataalamu wa Ufuatiliaji na Tathmini (M&E) wenye uzoefu kujiunga na Mtandao wake wa Wataalamu (Expert Network) kwa kazi za mkataba au za kujitegemea nchini Tanzania na Afrika Mashariki. Namba ya kumbukumbu ni TICGL-EOI-2026-001.
Maombi hupitiwa kila yanapopokelewa, na ni waliochaguliwa pekee watakaowasiliana nao. TICGL inahimiza maombi kutoka kwa wanawake, vijana na wataalamu wenye sifa kutoka mikoa yote.