This report is prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice, and does not state the position of the Government of Tanzania, the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange or the Capital Markets and Securities Authority (CMSA). Recommendations are analytical proposals; estimates, targets and calculations ("TERI calculation") may change and should be independently verified before use in decision-making. Peer-country market-depth figures (South Africa, Mauritius, Kenya, Nigeria) are drawn from TICGL/TERI working notes compiled across different reporting years and methodologies; ranges reflect that variation. R-codes refer to the Tanzania Policy Reform Agenda 2026–2031 register, in particular R14.
This page completes a four-part companion series. Gold Is Finance, Not Growth and Gold Dependence and Tanzania's Economic Future argue that gold revenue needs a destination beyond recurrent spending. Where Could Tanzania's Services Economy Be by 2030/31? found that financial services are the smallest but highest-upside component of services receipts. This report is the mechanism underneath both: a deep capital market is how gold windfalls and services growth actually convert into long-term domestic productive capacity, rather than bank deposits, government bonds, and short-term credit.
01 — OverviewExecutive Summary
Tanzania's capital market is growing fast but remains shallow. Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) total market capitalisation rose from roughly TZS 24.0 trillion at end-2025 to TZS 35.18 trillion by mid-2026 (+79.1% y/y) and surpassed TZS 40 trillion for the first time in September 2026 — yet market capitalisation is still only around 10.85% of GDP, far below Mauritius (≈55–63%) or South Africa (≈84–327%, depending on measure and year).
This matters directly for the services and gold-dependence questions TERI has already analysed. Tourism, logistics and digital-services firms need long-term capital (hotels, warehouses, technology, fleets) that short-term bank loans are poorly suited to provide; and gold-linked fiscal windfalls need a destination beyond recurrent spending if they are to become genuine development finance rather than one-off consumption.
The single biggest structural problem is crowding-out. Government securities turnover (TZS 6.221 trillion in 2025) dwarfs corporate bond turnover (TZS 11.6 billion — roughly 500 times smaller), and pension funds hold about TZS 7.7 trillion in government securities, around 30% of all outstanding government securities and roughly 45% of pension-fund assets. Until private issuers can compete with government paper for savings, Tanzania's capital market will keep growing in headline size without deepening in the way its services and manufacturing sectors need.
The objective for the next five years should not be "grow DSE market capitalisation further." It should be: build the financial infrastructure that converts domestic savings and resource revenue into long-term private investment, infrastructure, technology and productive capacity. Gold can supply foreign exchange and fiscal space; services can supply foreign earnings and employment; a deep capital market is the mechanism that lets both feed directly into Tanzania's long-term productive base.
Headline numbers
| Indicator | Value | Source / status |
|---|---|---|
| DSE total market capitalisation, end-2025 | TZS 23.995tn (+34.3% y/y) | TICGL/TERI working note |
| DSE total market capitalisation, Q2 2026 | TZS 35.18tn (+79.1% y/y); domestic TZS 23.74tn | CMSA Capital Markets Quarterly Report Q2 2026 / Business Report Sep 2026 |
| DSE total market capitalisation, Week 37 2026 (11 Sep) | TZS 40.61tn — first time above TZS 40tn | TanzaniaInvest, Sep 2026 |
| Market capitalisation / GDP, 2025 | ≈10.85% | TICGL/TERI working note |
| Listed companies, Sep 2025 | 28 (22 domestic, 6 cross-listed) | TICGL/TERI working note |
| Private-sector credit / GDP | ≈14% (2021) → ≈20–21.5% (2025) | TICGL/TERI working note; AfDB separately reports ≈15% on its own measure, vs ≈60% Sub-Saharan Africa average |
| Corporate bond turnover, 2025 | TZS 11.6bn (+81.3% y/y) | vs TZS 6.221tn for government bonds in the same year |
| Pension-fund holdings of government securities | ≈TZS 7.7tn — ≈30% of all outstanding government securities, ≈45% of pension-fund assets | World Bank, cited in TICGL/TERI working note |
Read this alongside TICGL/TERI's gold-as-finance report
That report argues gold revenue should be treated as development finance, not growth itself. This one shows where that finance would actually go if Tanzania's capital market were deep enough to receive it.
Read: Gold Is Finance, Not Growth →1. A Market That Is Growing — and a Market That Is Deep — Are Not the Same Thing
Fast headline growth, shallow underlying depthDSE total market capitalisation has nearly doubled in under two years: from roughly TZS 17.9 trillion at end-2024 (TERI back-calculation) to TZS 23.995 trillion at end-2025 (+34.3%), TZS 35.18 trillion by Q2 2026 (+79.1% year-on-year), and past TZS 40 trillion for the first time in the second week of September 2026, closing at TZS 40.61 trillion — a four-month rally adding roughly 22% since end-May 2026 alone.
Sources: CMSA/DSE via TICGL/TERI working notes and Business Report Sep 2026; TanzaniaInvest (Sep 2026, Week 37). End-2024 figure is a TERI back-calculation from the reported +34.3% growth rate to end-2025 and should be confirmed against CMSA/DSE published figures. Reproduced exactly as prepared in the source report.
1.1 Why headline growth overstates market depth
Three caveats matter before treating this growth as evidence of a deepening market:
- Price effects vs new capital. A material share of market-cap growth reflects rising share prices on existing counters (NMB and CRDB alone drive the large majority of DSE trading activity), not new companies raising new capital for new productive investment.
- Cross-listed companies inflate the headline. Total market capitalisation includes cross-listed counters; domestic market capitalisation (TZS 23.74 trillion, Q2 2026) is the more honest measure of Tanzania's own corporate base, and it is roughly a third smaller than the headline figure.
- Turnover is still thin relative to the size of the economy. Equity turnover reached TZS 1.068 trillion in the first half of 2026 — already above the whole of 2025 — but this remains small next to an economy with nominal GDP of roughly USD 90–98 billion.
1.2 Tanzania against its peers
Even after its recent rally, Tanzania's market capitalisation of roughly 10.85% of GDP sits well below Kenya (≈12–17%), Nigeria (≈18–30%), Mauritius (≈55–63%) and South Africa (≈84–327%, depending on year and measure). This is the single clearest number for why TERI treats capital-market depth as unfinished business rather than a success already achieved.
Source: TICGL/TERI working notes compiling JSE, SEM, NSE, NGX and DSE data (ranges reflect different reporting years/methods, 2024–26); Tanzania figure ≈10.85% (2025). Reproduced exactly as prepared in the source report.
02 — Where It FitsWhere Capital Markets Fit Inside the Services Economy
TERI's companion Services Receipts report found that "other services" — finance, ICT, professional and business services — remain the smallest component of Tanzania's services receipts, at well under 10% of the USD 8.14 billion total (year to June 2026), despite having the largest long-run upside. Capital markets sit inside this category in two distinct ways, and the distinction matters for policy.
| Channel | What it means | Current state |
|---|---|---|
| Direct financial-services export | Selling financial services (brokerage, asset management, listing and advisory fees, custody) to clients outside Tanzania | Still very small; Tanzania is not yet a regional financial-services exporter in the way Mauritius has become |
| Domestic financial intermediation | Collecting domestic savings — households, pension funds, insurers — and channelling them into long-term investment inside Tanzania | This is the larger and more immediately important function today, even though it does not show up directly in "services receipts" figures |
In other words: capital-market deepening is not primarily about adding to Tanzania's export statistics in the near term. It is about building the financial infrastructure that lets the rest of the economy — tourism, logistics, manufacturing, housing, agriculture — raise long-term capital domestically instead of depending on short-term bank credit or foreign financing alone. TERI's Gold Is Finance, Not Growth report makes the same point from the resource-revenue side: a deep capital market is the most direct mechanism for turning a gold windfall into diversified financial and productive assets rather than one-off consumption.
03 — Why It MattersFour Specific Functions a Deeper Market Would Perform
1Converts short-term savings into long-term, productive capital
- Ports, power, water, housing, universities, hospitals, industrial parks and renewable energy need financing horizons of 10–30 years — exactly what pension funds and insurers, with their own long-dated liabilities, are structurally suited to provide through bonds, infrastructure funds, REITs and listed equity.
- Tanzania's banking system, by contrast, is built principally around shorter-tenor lending.
2Reduces dependence on bank loans and gold-linked foreign exchange
- Firms currently rely heavily on overdrafts, short-term loans, shareholder capital and, for larger projects, foreign parent financing.
- A deeper corporate bond and equity market offers alternatives — IPOs, rights issues, private placements, commercial paper, asset-backed and infrastructure securities.
3Reaches ordinary Tanzanians, not only large investors
- Through unit trusts, ETFs and listed shares, capital markets let households hold productive financial assets rather than only land, informal savings groups, foreign currency or consumption goods.
- Directly extends the "low-risk, high-multiplier, reaches ordinary people" logic TERI applied to horticulture and mobile money in the Services Receipts report.
4Narrows Tanzania's FYDP IV / Vision 2050 financing gap
- TICGL/TERI estimates Tanzania needs roughly USD 10–13 billion a year to meet FYDP IV and Vision 2050 investment targets.
- Capital markets currently contribute under 1% of that gap. TERI's proposed strategic target: 7–9% by 2030.
Capital Market's Share of the Annual FYDP IV / Vision 2050 Financing Gap
04 — Root CausesWhy the Market Has Stayed Shallow: Five Structural Constraints
4.1 Government crowds out the private sector
Government securities offer higher liquidity and more frequent issuance than corporate paper, so pension funds, banks and institutional investors naturally gravitate toward sovereign debt. The result is a self-reinforcing cycle: government borrows easily, private firms face a large risk premium, the corporate bond market stays small, and pension money keeps flowing disproportionately into government securities rather than productive private investment. The World Bank has reported pension funds holding roughly TZS 7.7 trillion in government securities — about 30% of all outstanding government securities and roughly 45% of pension-fund assets.
Source: TICGL/TERI working note on capital markets, citing 2025 DSE trading data. Corporate bond turnover grew 81.3% y/y in 2025 but from a very small base. Reproduced exactly as prepared in the source report.
Pension-Fund Asset Allocation
Private-Sector Credit / GDP
4.2 The issuer pipeline is thin
Few Tanzanian companies currently meet the audited-accounts, disclosure, governance and credit-rating standards that listing or bond issuance require. Many SMEs have genuine growth potential but lack the reporting and governance systems capital markets need before they will extend financing.
4.3 Liquidity is low
Where shares are not regularly traded, investors cannot reliably exit a position — pushing institutional investors toward a handful of liquid counters (overwhelmingly the listed banks), depressing valuations elsewhere and discouraging companies from seeking new capital through listing.
4.4 The retail investor base is narrow
Limited financial literacy, limited access to independent research, few low-cost digital investment channels, and a strong cultural preference for bank deposits and real estate all constrain how many ordinary Tanzanians currently participate directly in capital markets.
4.5 Disclosure, governance and enforcement set the ceiling on trust
Capital markets run on confidence in financial statements, valuation, corporate governance, regulatory enforcement, courts and minority-shareholder protection. Delay in resolving governance or disclosure disputes raises the risk premium investors attach to the entire market, not just the firm involved.
05 — Cross-SectorCapital Markets as Upstream Infrastructure for Every Other Sector
Financial services do not only contribute to GDP through their own value added. A deeper capital market raises the productivity of every sector that needs long-term capital — which, in Tanzania's current growth debate, is effectively all of them.
| Sector | How capital-market depth supports it |
|---|---|
| Tourism | Hotel bonds, REITs, and airport/conference infrastructure funds — directly relevant to the tourism leakage and investment gaps identified in TERI's Services Receipts report |
| Transport & logistics | Port, rail, warehouse and fleet financing — alternatives to pure government or foreign-debt funding of the Central Corridor build-out |
| Housing | Mortgage-backed instruments, REITs and housing bonds, relevant to Tanzania's housing gap to 2030 |
| Manufacturing | Corporate bonds and equity for firms that need capital before a holiday-driven tax incentive alone can make a difference |
| Agriculture | Warehouse-receipt finance, agro-processing bonds, and insurance products, relevant to horticulture's growth potential |
| ICT / digital services | Venture capital and growth equity for the digital-export strategy TERI's Services Receipts report recommends |
| Energy | Green bonds, infrastructure funds and project finance for the power-sector reforms the Policy Reform Agenda (R18) identifies as critical |
| Mining | Supplier finance, beneficiation funds and mine-rehabilitation bonds — a mechanism for mining to finance its own domestic linkages |
06 — ComparatorsInternational Examples
| Country / market | What they have | Lesson for Tanzania | Caveat |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa (JSE) | Market capitalisation above R20 trillion; pension funds, insurers and asset managers collectively control more than R6 trillion. | Depth is built on an ecosystem — pension savings, institutional investors, research analysts, investment banks and active bond trading — not the exchange alone. | Built over decades alongside a large, diversified industrial economy; scale is not directly replicable in the near term. |
| Mauritius (SEM) | Financial services contributed roughly 13.3% of GDP in 2024; Stock Exchange of Mauritius market capitalisation was roughly 50% of GDP by March 2025. | A small country can turn financial services into a genuine export sector through predictable regulation, foreign-investor access, double-taxation arrangements and specialist fund administration. | Mauritius built institutions specifically for cross-border capital; Tanzania's domestic market is larger but less internationally oriented. |
| Kenya (NSE) | Deeper investor base and capital-market infrastructure than most of East Africa, yet mutual-fund/unit-trust assets were only around 4.7% of GDP in 2025, against a reported global average near 50.7%. | Even a more developed regional market shows how much room pooled-investment vehicles have to grow; mobile-money penetration is not the same as capital-market participation. | Global comparator figure should be treated as an illustrative benchmark, not a universally agreed single statistic. |
| Chile and Norway (resource-revenue precedent) | Chile's stabilisation funds and Norway's sovereign wealth fund both convert resource revenue into professionally managed financial assets rather than direct consumption. | Tanzania's gold windfall could seed exactly this kind of domestic capital-market deepening — infrastructure bonds, a diversification fund, SME and supplier finance vehicles — if a share of windfall revenue is directed there under a transparent mandate. | Neither country's resource revenue was used to fund government securities issuance in place of market development; the sequencing matters. |
Peer-country figures are drawn from TICGL/TERI working notes compiling JSE, SEM, NSE and NGX sources across different reporting years and methodologies; re-verify against each exchange's own current disclosure before external use.
07 — RoadmapPolicy Roadmap, 2026–2031
TERI structures the roadmap in four phases, broadly consistent with R14 of the Tanzania Policy Reform Agenda 2026–2031 (local-currency capital markets and capital-account opening).
Build trust and data
- Publish a consolidated, quarterly capital-market dashboard distinguishing total market cap, domestic market cap, free float and effective liquidity.
- Publish turnover, active-investor counts, institutional holdings and corporate-issuance data as standard public information.
- Strengthen issuer disclosure enforcement while shortening approval timelines, without weakening due diligence.
- Establish predictable tax treatment for dividends, interest, capital gains and collective investment schemes.
Grow the issuer base
- Create an SME and mid-cap listing segment with requirements scaled to smaller firms' size.
- Reduce listing costs for qualifying firms and fund an issuer-readiness programme (accounting, governance, investor relations).
- Introduce partial credit guarantees for corporate bonds backed by cash-flow-generating projects.
- Build a public-private pipeline of infrastructure bonds, sequenced after project appraisal, tariff design and revenue certainty — not before.
Broaden the investor base
- Move pension-fund asset allocation toward a risk-based framework rather than reliance on informal preference for government securities.
- Expand collective investment schemes, ETFs and REITs, and distribute them through low-cost mobile channels.
- Introduce mandatory investor education in schools, universities and workplaces.
- Simplify diaspora investment through digital onboarding and foreign-currency-denominated products.
Build financial-services exports
- Target regional (EAC/SADC) export of fund management, custodial services, pension administration, insurance, Islamic finance, trade finance, ESG verification, and capital-market advisory and research services.
08 — MonitoringTargets and Monitoring Scorecard
TERI recommends that policy stop treating headline market-capitalisation growth as the primary KPI, and instead track depth and participation directly.
| Indicator | Current status | 2028 milestone (TERI proposed) | 2030/31 target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market capitalisation / GDP | ≈10.85% (2025) | ≥14% | ≥18% (TERI proposed) |
| Domestic market capitalisation (excl. cross-listed) | TZS 23.74tn (Q2 2026) | Rising trend, tracked separately from total | Materially higher, clearly attributed to new issuance |
| Corporate bond turnover as share of total bond turnover | ≈0.2% (TZS 11.6bn of ≈TZS 6.23tn, 2025) | ≥2% | ≥5% (TERI proposed) |
| Pension-fund assets outside government securities | ≈55% (implied by ≈45% in government securities) | Rising trend under risk-based allocation | Materially higher, reported annually |
| Capital market's share of FYDP IV/Vision 2050 financing gap | <1% | 3–4% | 7–9% (TICGL target) |
| New domestic issuers (listings and bond issuers combined) | 28 listed companies (Sep 2025); 3 corporate, 2 green, 2 social bonds outstanding | Measurable increase, SME/mid-cap segment operating | Broader issuer base across non-bank sectors |
| Active retail investors | Not separately published in sources reviewed | Baseline established | Rising trend tied to investor-education programme |
Proposed Pathway: Key Indicators, Now → 2028 → 2030/31
09 — FrameworkThree Scenarios for 2030/31
Headline growth, no structural depth
Government securities continue to dominate; DSE market cap keeps rising mainly from price effects on existing counters; corporate bonds remain a marginal segment; pension funds continue financing government more than productive private investment.
Outcome: Financial-sector growth without financial transformation — headline numbers look good, structural depth does not improve.
Depth catches up with growth
Private-sector credit grows alongside capital-market financing; corporate bonds expand from their small base; infrastructure and green bonds fund long-term investment; mid-sized firms enter a new listing segment; pension, insurance and mutual funds become anchor investors for non-government issuance; gold windfalls are channelled into financial and productive assets.
Outcome: Tanzania becomes a credible regional financial-services participant and meaningfully narrows its FYDP IV financing gap.
Crowding-out deepens
Government borrowing from the domestic market continues to grow; yields stay elevated; private firms are crowded out further; corporate bond issuance stalls; a governance or disclosure failure damages investor confidence market-wide.
Outcome: Market capitalisation remains large on paper, but liquidity and genuine depth do not follow — the gap between headline growth and financial transformation widens rather than closes.
"Tanzania's capital market has had a genuinely strong two years by headline measures — total market capitalisation has nearly doubled, crossing TZS 40 trillion for the first time, and new product lines like ETFs, Sukuk, green and social bonds now exist that did not a few years ago. But growth and depth are different things. Market capitalisation remains under 11% of GDP, corporate bond turnover is roughly five hundred times smaller than government bond turnover, and pension funds — Tanzania's largest pool of long-term domestic savings — remain concentrated in government securities rather than the productive private investment the economy needs."
— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)
10 — ConclusionConclusion
The policy objective for the next five years should not be "grow DSE market capitalisation further". It should be: build the financial infrastructure that converts domestic savings and resource revenue into long-term private investment, infrastructure, technology and productive capacity. Gold can supply foreign exchange and fiscal space, as TERI's companion report on gold as finance argues. Services can supply foreign earnings and employment, as TERI's Services Receipts report argues. A deep capital market is the mechanism that would let both feed directly into Tanzania's long-term productive base — rather than leaving savings sitting in bank deposits, pension money concentrated in government bonds, and companies dependent on short-term credit, while the country's infrastructure and industrialisation needs remain fundamentally long-term.
11 — Data QualityAppendix A: Data Reconciliation and Gaps
| Issue | Figures that differ | Recommended action |
|---|---|---|
| Private-sector credit / GDP | ≈21.5% (2025, TICGL/TERI working note) vs ≈20.1% (a separate Bank of Tanzania-sourced figure cited in the same note) vs ≈15% (AfDB, on its own measurement basis, against a Sub-Saharan Africa average of ≈60%) | Treat as a range pending a single reconciled BoT series; AfDB's figure uses a different methodology and should not be averaged with the others |
| End-2024 DSE market capitalisation | Not independently sourced; shown in the chart as a TERI back-calculation from the reported +34.3% growth rate to end-2025 (TZS 23.995tn) | Confirm directly against CMSA/DSE end-2024 published figures before external use |
| Peer market-cap-to-GDP ranges (South Africa, Mauritius, Kenya, Nigeria) | Carried over from TICGL/TERI working notes compiling JSE, SEM, NSE and NGX data across different years; wide ranges (e.g., South Africa 84–327%) reflect this variation rather than a single current figure | Re-verify each country's current market-cap-to-GDP ratio against that exchange's latest annual report before external circulation |
| Kenya mutual-fund/UTF assets vs "global average" of 50.7% of GDP | The "global average" figure in the source working note is not attributed to a specific index or year | Source and date the global comparator before using it in any external-facing version of this report |
12 — SourcesAppendix B: Sources
This page is built directly from TERI's report "Tanzania's Capital Market: Growing Fast, Still Shallow" (September 2026), a companion analysis to the Tanzania Business Report (September 2026), the Tanzania Policy Reform Agenda 2026–2031, and TERI's companion reports on gold-export dependence, gold as development finance, and services receipts. Figures marked "TERI calculation" are arithmetic on cited data.
- TICGL/TERI, Tanzania Business Report, September 2026.
- TICGL/TERI, Tanzania Policy Reform Agenda 2026–2031 (information as of 20 September 2026).
- TICGL/TERI, Gold Dependence Policy Report and Gold Is Finance, Not Growth report (companion analyses, September 2026).
- TICGL/TERI, Services Receipts: Tanzania's Lower-Risk Growth Engine (companion analysis, September 2026).
- TICGL/TERI, two working research notes on Tanzania's capital market supplied for this analysis (headline DSE statistics, peer comparisons, issuer-pipeline and liquidity analysis, four-phase policy roadmap, KPI targets, three five-year scenarios).
- CMSA, Capital Markets Quarterly Report, Q2 2026 (published August 2026), as cited in TICGL/TERI Business Report.
- TanzaniaInvest, "Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange Market Capitalisation Surpasses TZS 40 Trillion for the First Time During Week 37 of 2026" (Sep 2026).
- Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange, daily Market Reports (September 2026).
- World Bank, pension-fund holdings of government securities data, as cited in TICGL/TERI working note.
- African Development Bank, Tanzania domestic-credit and Sub-Saharan Africa benchmark data, as cited in TICGL/TERI working note.
Request the Full Report or a Briefing
This page summarises TICGL/TERI's capital-market report. Institutions, investors, government agencies and development partners may request the full report or a tailored briefing — including the four-phase roadmap and a scenario deep-dive — directly from TERI.
✉️ Request via economist@ticgl.com →13 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How big is the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange now?
DSE total market capitalisation rose from roughly TZS 17.9 trillion (end-2024, TERI back-calculation) to TZS 23.995 trillion (end-2025, +34.3%), TZS 35.18 trillion (Q2 2026, +79.1% year-on-year), and surpassed TZS 40 trillion for the first time in the second week of September 2026, closing at TZS 40.61 trillion.
Is Tanzania's capital market actually deep, or just growing?
Growing, but still shallow. Market capitalisation is only around 10.85% of GDP (2025) — below Kenya (≈12–17%), Nigeria (≈18–30%), Mauritius (≈55–63%) and South Africa (≈84–327%, depending on year and measure). A material share of the headline growth reflects rising prices on a small number of existing counters (chiefly NMB and CRDB) rather than new companies raising new capital.
Why does government borrowing crowd out Tanzania's corporate bond market?
Government securities turnover was TZS 6.221 trillion in 2025, against corporate bond turnover of just TZS 11.6 billion — roughly 500 times smaller. Pension funds hold about TZS 7.7 trillion in government securities, around 30% of all outstanding government securities and roughly 45% of pension-fund assets, because sovereign debt offers more liquidity and more frequent issuance than corporate paper, leaving private issuers facing a large risk premium and a thin market.
How does capital-market depth connect to Tanzania's gold revenue and services economy?
A deep capital market is the mechanism that could convert both into long-term productive assets. TERI's Gold Is Finance, Not Growth report argues gold revenue needs a destination beyond recurrent spending; a deeper bond and equity market is the most direct way to turn a windfall into diversified financial and productive assets. TERI's Services Receipts report found "other services" is the smallest but highest-upside component of services receipts — capital-market deepening is how that potential gets built.
What would it take to deepen Tanzania's capital market by 2030/31?
TERI proposes a four-phase roadmap: Phase 1 (0–12 months) builds trust and data through a consolidated market dashboard and predictable tax treatment; Phase 2 (12–24 months) grows the issuer base through an SME/mid-cap listing segment and partial credit guarantees for corporate bonds; Phase 3 (18–36 months) broadens the investor base through risk-based pension allocation and expanded collective investment schemes; Phase 4 (24–60 months) builds financial-services exports targeting the EAC/SADC region.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Soko la Mitaji la Tanzania: Linakua Haraka, Bado ni Dogo — Mtaji wa Soko la Hisa la Dar es Salaam (DSE) umefikia TZS trilioni 40.61 kwa mara ya kwanza mwezi Septemba 2026, ukiwa umeongezeka karibu mara mbili ndani ya chini ya miaka miwili. Lakini mtaji huo bado ni takribani 10.85% tu ya GDP — chini sana ya Kenya, Mauritius na Afrika Kusini.
Ukuaji na udogo ni vitu viwili tofauti: Sehemu kubwa ya ukuaji wa mtaji wa soko inatokana na kupanda kwa bei za hisa za makampuni machache yaliyopo (hasa NMB na CRDB), si makampuni mapya yanayoingiza mtaji mpya. Mtaji wa soko wa ndani (bila makampuni yaliyoorodheshwa nje) ni TZS trilioni 23.74 pekee, karibu theluthi moja chini ya kiwango kikuu kinachotangazwa.
Tanzania dhidi ya wenzake: Mtaji wa soko kwa uwiano wa GDP ni 10.85% Tanzania, dhidi ya Kenya (12–17%), Nigeria (18–30%), Mauritius (55–63%), na Afrika Kusini (84–327%). Hii ndiyo namba inayoonyesha wazi kwamba undani wa soko la mitaji bado ni kazi isiyokamilika.
Tatizo kuu: serikali inazuia sekta binafsi (crowding-out): Mauzo ya hati fungani za serikali yalifikia TZS trilioni 6.221 mwaka 2025, dhidi ya hati fungani za makampuni binafsi za TZS bilioni 11.6 tu — takribani mara 500 ndogo zaidi. Mifuko ya pensheni inashikilia takribani TZS trilioni 7.7 kwenye hati fungani za serikali, sawa na 30% ya hati zote za serikali na 45% ya mali za mifuko ya pensheni.
Kwa nini hii inahusiana na dhahabu na huduma: Ripoti za TERI za awali zinaonyesha kwamba mapato ya dhahabu yanahitaji sehemu ya kuwekeza zaidi ya matumizi ya kawaida, na huduma za fedha ndizo sehemu ndogo zaidi lakini zenye uwezo mkubwa zaidi wa huduma za nje. Soko la mitaji lenye undani ndilo njia ya moja kwa moja ya kubadilisha mapato ya dhahabu na ukuaji wa huduma kuwa mali za uzalishaji za muda mrefu.
Mapendekezo ya TICGL/TERI (hatua nne): Awamu ya 1 (miezi 0–12): kujenga uwazi na takwimu, dashibodi ya robo mwaka. Awamu ya 2 (miezi 12–24): kukuza idadi ya makampuni yanayoorodheshwa, dirisha maalum la SME. Awamu ya 3 (miezi 18–36): kupanua wawekezaji, mgao wa pensheni unaozingatia hatari. Awamu ya 4 (miezi 24–60): kujenga mauzo ya huduma za fedha nje ya nchi, hasa EAC/SADC.
Hitimisho: Lengo la miaka mitano ijayo lisiwe "kukuza mtaji wa soko la DSE zaidi." Liwe: kujenga miundombinu ya kifedha inayobadilisha akiba za ndani na mapato ya rasilimali kuwa uwekezaji wa muda mrefu wa sekta binafsi, miundombinu, teknolojia na uwezo wa uzalishaji. Dhahabu inaweza kutoa fedha za kigeni na nafasi ya kibajeti; huduma zinaweza kutoa mapato ya nje na ajira; soko la mitaji lenye undani ndilo utaratibu utakaoruhusu vyote viwili kuingia moja kwa moja kwenye msingi wa uzalishaji wa muda mrefu wa Tanzania.
- Mtaji wa DSE: TZS trilioni 40.6 (Septemba 2026), mara mbili zaidi tangu 2024
- Mtaji wa soko / GDP: ≈10.85%, chini ya nchi jirani zote zilizochambuliwa
- Hati fungani za serikali dhidi ya binafsi: uwiano wa karibu 500 kwa 1
- Mchango wa soko la mitaji kwenye pengo la ufadhili: chini ya 1%, lengo la TICGL ni 7–9% ifikapo 2030
Chanzo: TICGL/TERI, ripoti ya Soko la Mitaji la Tanzania, Septemba 2026. Kwa maelezo zaidi wasiliana na: economist@ticgl.com.