Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd

| Economic Research Centre

Tanzania's Fiscal Health and Economic Expansion Debt-to-GDP and GDP Projections
April 26, 2024  
Government Debt to GDP in 2022: Historical Trends: Expectations for 2023 and beyond: GDP Projections: These projections are based on TICGL economic models and analysts' expectations and may be subject to change due to various factors affecting the economy. Focusing on Tanzania's economic growth: Tanzania's economy is on a path of stable growth, with efforts […]

Government Debt to GDP in 2022:

  • Tanzania recorded a Government Debt to GDP ratio of 38.30 percent in 2022. This means that the total debt of the Tanzania government was equivalent to 38.30% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for that year.

Historical Trends:

  • From 2001 to 2022, the average Government Debt to GDP ratio in Tanzania was 35.26 percent.
  • The highest recorded ratio was 50.20 percent in 2001.
  • The lowest recorded ratio was 21.50 percent in 2008.

Expectations for 2023 and beyond:

  • By the end of 2023, Government Debt to GDP in Tanzania is expected to decrease slightly to 37.00 percent according to TICGL macro models and analysts' expectations.
  • In the long-term:
  • In 2024, it's projected to be around 36.00 percent of GDP.
  • In 2025, it's projected to be around 35.00 percent of GDP.

GDP Projections:

  • GDP in Tanzania is expected to reach 80.43 USD Billion by the end of 2024, according to TICGL macro models and analysts' expectations.
  • In the long-term:
  • In 2025, GDP is projected to be around 85.25 USD Billion.
  • In 2026, GDP is projected to be around 90.45 USD Billion.

These projections are based on TICGL economic models and analysts' expectations and may be subject to change due to various factors affecting the economy.

Focusing on Tanzania's economic growth:

  1. Government Debt to GDP Ratio:
  • Tanzania's Government Debt to GDP ratio has been fluctuating over the years but has been relatively stable around an average of 35%.
  • In 2022, it increased to 38.30%, possibly indicating increased government borrowing relative to GDP.
  • The projected decrease in the ratio over the coming years shows a positive trend, indicating potentially more sustainable debt levels relative to economic output.
  1. GDP Growth:
  • Tanzania's GDP is expected to continue growing steadily, reaching 80.43 USD Billion by the end of 2024.
  • Long-term projections indicate further growth, with GDP expected to reach 85.25 USD Billion in 2025 and 90.45 USD Billion in 2026.
  • This shows a positive outlook for the Tanzania economy, with steady expansion expected over the forecast period.
  1. Trend Stability:
  • Despite fluctuations in the debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP growth rates, there seems to be a trend towards stability.
  • The government's efforts to manage debt levels and support economic growth appear to be yielding results, as reflected in the projected decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio and steady GDP growth.

Tanzania's economy is on a path of stable growth, with efforts to manage debt levels and stimulate economic activity showing promising signs for the future.

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