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Tanzania economic update
May 11, 2026  
Tanzania Economic Update 2026 | GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Trade & Debt | TICGL Bank of Tanzania · April 2026 Monthly Economic Review · TICGL Intelligence Tanzania Economic Update — April 2026: All Key Variables at a Glance A complete, data-rich snapshot of Tanzania's economic performance across output, inflation, monetary conditions, financial markets, government finance, […]
Tanzania Economic Update 2026 | GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Trade & Debt | TICGL
Bank of Tanzania · April 2026 Monthly Economic Review · TICGL Intelligence

Tanzania Economic Update — April 2026: All Key Variables at a Glance

A complete, data-rich snapshot of Tanzania's economic performance across output, inflation, monetary conditions, financial markets, government finance, debt, and the external sector — sourced directly from the Bank of Tanzania's Monthly Economic Review, April 2026.

Reference: Year/Quarter to March 2026 Source: Bank of Tanzania, NBS, MoF, TRA Analysis: TICGL Economic Intelligence Unit
Section 1 · Output

Output Performance — GDP Growth Remains Broad-Based and Strong

Tanzania's economy maintained strong momentum in Q4 2025, recording 5.7% growth — up from 5.4% in Q4 2024. Growth was broad-based, led by agriculture, financial & insurance services, and construction. Q1 and Q2 2026 growth is projected at 6.2% and 6.1% respectively, factoring in Middle East geopolitical headwinds.

Q4 2025 GDP Growth
5.7%
▲ vs 5.4% in Q4 2024
Broad-based expansion
Q1 2026 Projection
6.2%
▲ Accelerating
High-frequency indicators
Q2 2026 Projection
6.1%
▲ Sustained momentum
Agriculture + Finance led
Full Year 2025 (Est.)
6.0%
▲ vs 5.5% in 2024
Const. 2015 prices
Quarterly GDP Growth Rate — 2021 to 2025
Percent · Stacked by quarter (Q1–Q4)
Sectoral Contribution to Q4 2025 Growth
Percentage points contribution
Annual GDP Growth & Per Capita Income
2018–2025 · Constant 2015 prices and current USD
YearGDP Growth (Const. %)GDP Growth (Curr. %)Per Capita (TZS '000)Per Capita (USD)Inflation (%)
20187.04.42,356.51,041.03.5
20196.98.52,479.31,083.53.4
20204.58.12,597.71,126.73.3
20214.87.42,705.41,171.63.7
20224.79.42,854.11,233.14.3
20235.110.53,058.81,263.13.8
20245.510.23,234.91,239.23.1
2025p6.0n.a.n.a.n.a.3.3

Source: NBS, Ministry of Finance, Bank of Tanzania. p = provisional.

Investment Signal: Tanzania's five-year average GDP growth rate (2021–2025) of approximately 5.2% places it comfortably among the faster-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Growth is projected to accelerate to 6.2% in Q1 2026, driven by construction, agriculture, and financial services — sectors with strong multiplier effects on employment and household income.

Section 2 · Inflation

Inflation — Stable Within Target, But External Risks Rising

Headline inflation held steady at 3.2% in March 2026, unchanged from February — well within Tanzania's 3–5% country target and below both the EAC upper bound (8%) and SADC upper bound (8%). Core inflation edged up marginally to 2.2%. Food inflation eased to 5.5%. The Strait of Hormuz crisis poses near-term upside risk via energy and transport costs.

Headline Inflation
3.2%
→ Unchanged MoM
Target: 3–5%
Core Inflation
2.2%
▲ +0.1pp MoM
Excl. food & energy
Food Inflation
5.5%
▼ From 5.7%
Improving harvest
Energy/Fuel/Utils
2.1%
▼ From 2.8%
Charcoal & firewood ↓
Services Inflation
2.4%
▲ From 2.2%
Restaurants & transport
Transport Inflation
4.2%
▲ From 4.0%
Fuel pass-through
Headline, Core, Food & Energy Inflation
12-month % change · Mar 2024 – Mar 2026
Contribution to Overall Inflation
Percentage points · Mar 2025 – Mar 2026
Detailed Inflation by Main CPI Category — March 2026
Annual % change · Weight in CPI basket · Mar 2025 vs Mar 2026
CategoryWeight (%)Mar-25 AnnualFeb-26 AnnualMar-26 AnnualMoM Mar-26
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages28.25.45.75.51.8
Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco1.93.52.12.10.1
Clothing & Footwear10.82.01.11.30.5
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas15.13.81.71.60.7
Furnishings & Household Equipment7.92.22.52.30.1
Health2.51.40.91.10.4
Transport14.12.14.04.20.5
Information & Communication5.40.11.11.00.0
Restaurants & Accommodation6.61.71.72.10.4
Education Services2.04.10.30.90.6
Personal Care & Misc.2.13.33.23.30.3
All Items (Headline)100.03.33.23.20.8

Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania computations.

⚠ Forward Risk: While energy inflation fell to 2.1% in March 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026 has already driven crude prices to USD 95.58/barrel (+40.5% MoM). Pass-through to retail pump prices — which slightly increased in March — will intensify in the next reporting cycle, posing upside risk to both transport and food inflation.

Section 3 · Monetary Policy

Monetary Policy — Cautious Stance Maintained; Corridor Narrowed

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75% for Q2 2026 at its April 2026 meeting, balancing inflation risks with growth considerations amid global uncertainty. Notably, the MPC narrowed the CBR corridor from ±200 basis points to ±150 basis points effective 1 April 2026, strengthening monetary transmission. M3 grew 23.2% and private sector credit expanded 24.1%.

Central Bank Rate (CBR)
5.75%
→ Held for Q2 2026
MPC April 2026 decision
CBR Corridor
±150 bps
▼ Narrowed from ±200
Effective 1 Apr 2026
M3 Growth (YoY)
23.2%
▼ From 24.5%
TZS 64,246.7B stock
Private Sector Credit
24.1%
→ Stable
TZS 47,168.3B stock
Reverse Repo Uptake
TZS 430.8B
▼ From TZS 581.4B
Declining bank demand
7-Day IBCM Rate
6.32%
▼ From 6.34%
Within CBR corridor
M3 Money Supply Stock & Growth Rate
TZS Billions (bar) · Annual growth % (line) · Jan 2025 – Mar 2026
Private Sector Credit Growth
TZS Billions (bar) · Growth % (line) · Jan 2025 – Mar 2026
Money Supply Components — Key Data Points
TZS Billions & Annual Growth %
ComponentMar-25 (TZS B)Feb-26 (TZS B)Mar-26 (TZS B)YoY Growth
Extended Broad Money (M3)52,141.963,069.364,246.7+23.2%
Foreign Currency Deposits13,605.914,569.714,998.4+10.2%
Broad Money (M2)38,536.048,499.649,248.3+27.8%
Other Deposits (Savings & Time)14,994.318,541.919,071.4+27.2%
Narrow Money (M1)23,541.729,957.730,176.9+28.2%
Currency in Circulation7,190.08,151.88,078.3+12.4%
Transferable Deposits16,351.721,805.922,098.5+35.1%
Reserve Money (M0)11,793.114,990.014,998.9+27.2%
Claims on Private Sector37,999.346,007.447,168.3+24.1%
Net Foreign Assets (Banking Sys.)15,442.115,749.514,824.5−4.0%

Source: Bank of Tanzania and commercial banks.

Credit Growth by Economic Sector — Year Ending March 2026
Annual % change — Selected key sectors

Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania. Mining & quarrying growth reflects government programmes supporting artisanal/small-scale miners.

Transmission Strengthened: By narrowing the CBR corridor to ±150 basis points, the MPC has tightened the band within which the 7-day interbank rate must operate. This reduces interest rate volatility, improves policy predictability, and strengthens the pass-through of the CBR signal to bank lending rates — a technically significant policy refinement.

Section 4 · Interest Rates

Interest Rates — Lending Rates Stable; Deposits Trending Up

Banks' interest rates remained largely unchanged in March 2026. The overall lending rate held at 15.11% while negotiated deposit rates increased to 11.57% from 11.48%. Treasury bill yields declined sharply to an average of 5.21%, signalling improved fiscal confidence. The short-term interest rate spread widened modestly to 5.85 percentage points.

Overall Lending Rate
15.11%
→ Flat MoM
Unchanged from Feb-26
Negotiated Lending Rate
12.21%
▲ Slight uptick
Prime customers
Overall T-Bill Yield
5.21%
▼ From 5.68%
Average across tenors
Negotiated Deposit Rate
11.57%
▲ From 11.48%
12-month: 9.60%
Lending vs Deposit Rate Structure — March 2026
Percent · Selected rate categories
Treasury Bill Yields by Tenor
Percent · Mar 2025 to Mar 2026

Section 5 · Financial Markets

Financial Markets — T-Bill Auctions Oversubscribed; Shilling Appreciates

Government securities markets performed robustly in March 2026 with consistently oversubscribed auctions. T-bill subscriptions reached TZS 812.9 billion against an offer of TZS 452.1 billion (1.8× oversubscribed). The Tanzanian shilling appreciated 2.52% year-on-year, trading at TZS 2,583.23 per USD versus TZS 2,650.24 a year earlier.

T-Bill Subscription Ratio
1.80×
▲ Oversubscribed
TZS 812.9B vs 452.1B offer
Shilling (TZS/USD)
2,583
▲ +2.52% YoY
Appreciation vs Mar-25
IBCM Turnover (Mar-26)
TZS 2,699B
▼ From TZS 2,797B
7-day tenor: 60.7%
BOT Net FX Sales
USD 65M
▼ From USD 128.8M
Easing demand pressure
Tanzania Shilling Exchange Rate (TZS/USD)
Monthly weighted average · Mar 2025 – Mar 2026
T-Bill Auction Performance
TZS Billions · Offer vs Subscriptions vs Accepted · Jan–Mar 2026

Section 6 · Government Budget

Government Budget — Revenue Exceeds Target; Expenditure Well-Directed

Domestic revenue collections in February 2026 totalled TZS 2,972.9 billion, exceeding the monthly target by 3.2%. Tax revenue reached TZS 2,417.4 billion — 5.7% above target — reflecting improvements in tax administration. Total expenditure was TZS 3,550.1 billion, with 31.6% directed to development projects.

Total Revenue (Feb 26)
TZS 2,973B
▲ +3.2% vs target
Central govt: TZS 2,841B
Tax Revenue (Feb 26)
TZS 2,417B
▲ +5.7% vs target
All major tax heads
Total Expenditure
TZS 3,550B
→ Aligned to resources
Feb 2026
Development Expenditure
TZS 1,120B
→ 31.6% of total spend
Infrastructure focus
Revenue by Category — Feb 2026
TZS Billions · Actual vs Estimate vs 2025 Actuals
Expenditure by Category — Feb 2026
TZS Billions · Actual vs Estimate vs 2025 Actuals
Fiscal Ratios — Historical Overview
% of GDP · Fiscal years 2018/19 – 2024/25
Fiscal YearRevenue/GDPGrants/GDPCurrent Exp/GDPDev. Exp/GDPBudget Balance (excl. grants)/GDPOverall Balance/GDP
2017/1814.80.810.26.6−2.1−1.9
2018/1914.30.410.76.5−2.9−3.3
2019/2015.00.710.17.1−2.2−1.9
2020/2113.70.59.97.8−4.0−4.0
2021/2214.90.49.89.2−4.1−3.6
2022/2315.00.311.07.4−3.4−3.1
2023/2414.70.310.87.2−3.3−3.1
2024/2515.60.411.96.9−3.2−3.0

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania.

✔ Revenue Momentum: The 2024/25 fiscal year recorded the highest revenue-to-GDP ratio in the series at 15.6%, reflecting sustained improvements in tax administration and compliance. The overall budget deficit narrowed to −3.0% of GDP — the lowest since 2019/20.

Section 7 · Debt

National Debt — Total Stock at USD 50.5 Billion; Domestic Debt Eases

Tanzania's total national debt stock was USD 50,457.5 million at end March 2026, a 1.2% monthly decline. External debt (70.4% of total) stood at USD 35,540.2 million, with multilateral creditors (57.8%) dominating. Domestic debt eased marginally to TZS 38,447.9 billion, with commercial banks and pension funds holding over 55% of the portfolio.

Total National Debt
$50.46B
▼ −1.2% MoM
USD 50,457.5M
External Debt Stock
$35.54B
▼ −0.8% MoM
70.4% of total debt
Domestic Debt Stock
TZS 38.4T
▼ −0.9% MoM
29.6% of total (TZS)
Multilateral Share
57.8%
→ Largest creditor block
USD 20,543.5M
External Debt by Creditor Type — March 2026
% of total external debt (USD 35,540.2M)
Domestic Debt Creditor Composition — March 2026
% of total domestic debt (TZS 38,447.9B)
External Debt Currency Composition & Use of Funds
Percentage share · March 2026
CurrencyMar-25 Share %Feb-26 Share %Mar-26 Share %Use of FundsMar-26 Share %
US Dollar67.366.066.7BoP & Budget Support22.5
Euro16.917.717.7Transport & Telecom22.0
Chinese Yuan6.36.56.6Social Welfare & Education19.2
Other9.59.79.0Energy & Mining12.0
Agriculture5.3
Real Estate & Construction5.1

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania.


Section 8 · External Sector

External Sector — Export Surge Partially Offset by Rising Import Bill

Exports of goods and services reached USD 18,603.5 million (+12.8%) in the year ending March 2026, anchored by gold (+38.5%) and travel (+9.3%). Imports rose 13.6% to USD 19,373.8 million — capital goods dominance signals investment-led growth. The current account deficit widened to USD 2,680.1 million (+33.3%) but forex reserves grew to USD 6,084.4 million (4.7 months import cover).

Total Exports
$18.6B
▲ +12.8%
Year ending Mar-26
Gold Exports
$5.22B
▲ +38.5%
Largest single earner
Travel Receipts
$4.34B
▲ +9.3%
Tourism recovery
Total Imports
$19.4B
▲ +13.6%
Capital goods surge
Current Account
−$2.68B
▼ −33.3%
Wider but manageable
Forex Reserves
$6.08B
▲ 4.7 months
Above benchmarks
Exports vs Imports — Goods & Services Trend
USD Billions · Year ending March 2022–2026
Top Export Categories — Year Ending March 2026 vs 2025
USD Millions

Section 9 · Zanzibar

Zanzibar Economy — Tourism Boom Powers 27.9% Current Account Surplus Growth

Zanzibar's current account surplus grew 27.9% to USD 903.6 million in the year ending March 2026, driven by a 22.8% surge in tourist arrivals (942,639 visitors). Headline inflation eased to 4.9% (from 5.1% in Mar-25), while exports grew 24.8% to USD 1,633.3 million. Service receipts — at 95% of total exports — reflect the island's tourism-centric economic model.

Current Account Surplus
$903.6M
▲ +27.9% YoY
Year ending Mar-26
Tourist Arrivals
942,639
▲ +22.8%
Year ending Mar-26
Total Exports
$1.63B
▲ +24.8%
95% services
Headline Inflation
4.9%
▼ From 5.1%
Mar 2026
Zanzibar: Revenue vs Expenditure (Mar 2026)
TZS Billions · Actual vs Estimate vs 2025 Actuals
Zanzibar: Inflation Components
Annual % change · Mar 2025 to Mar 2026
Zanzibar Trade Summary — Year Ending March 2026
USD Millions
Item2025 (Annual)2026p (Annual)Change
Goods Exports34.181.9+140%
Cloves (Value $'000)3,888.837,319.9+859%
Manufactured Goods14,005.820,649.5+47.4%
Services Receipts1,274.21,551.4+21.8%
Total Exports1,308.31,633.3+24.8%
Total Imports618.1768.7+24.4%
Goods Balance (Net)−484.4−569.4+17.5%
Services Balance (Net)1,174.51,434.0+22.1%
Current Account Balance706.5903.6+27.9%

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks, and Bank of Tanzania computations. p = provisional.


Section 10 · Global Context

Global Context — Slowing Growth, Rising Commodity Prices, Hormuz Shock

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (April 2026) revised global growth down to 3.1% from a 3.3% January forecast, reflecting Middle East conflict uncertainty. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow 4.3% (revised from 4.6%). Crude oil surged to USD 95.58/barrel in March 2026. Gold prices remain elevated at USD 4,855.54/troy oz. Tanzania's gold-oil natural hedge provides structural resilience.

Crude Oil (Mar-26)
$95.58
▲ +40.5% MoM
Strait of Hormuz shock
Gold Price (Mar-26)
$4,856
▼ From $5,020
Per troy oz
Global Growth 2026
3.1%
▼ From 3.3%
IMF WEO Apr-26
Sub-Saharan Africa 2026
4.3%
▼ From 4.6%
IMF WEO Apr-26
Selected Global Growth Projections — IMF WEO April 2026
GDP growth (%) — 2023 to 2027 projections
Economy2023202420252026p2027p
Global3.53.33.43.13.2
United States2.92.82.12.32.1
Euro Area0.40.91.41.11.2
United Kingdom0.31.11.30.81.3
Japan0.7−0.21.20.70.6
China5.45.05.04.44.0
India7.27.17.66.56.5
Brazil3.23.42.31.92.0
Sub-Saharan Africa3.84.24.54.34.4
Tanzania (BOT Est.)5.15.56.0~6.1–6.2

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2026. Tanzania figures from Bank of Tanzania.

Tanzania vs Peers: At a projected 6.1–6.2% for 2026, Tanzania is expected to grow nearly twice the Sub-Saharan Africa average (4.3%) and more than twice the global average (3.1%). This growth premium reflects structural factors: a large agricultural base, strong gold export revenues, expanding financial services, and improving investment climate fundamentals.

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