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Tanzania External Sector Performance: Year Ending March 2026
May 10, 2026  
Tanzania External Sector Performance 2026 | Current Account, Exports & Imports Analysis | TICGL Bank of Tanzania · April 2026 Monthly Economic Review · TICGL Analysis Tanzania External Sector Performance: Year Ending March 2026 A comprehensive breakdown of Tanzania's current account, goods and services exports, travel receipts, and import dynamics — with data tables, trend […]
Tanzania External Sector Performance 2026 | Current Account, Exports & Imports Analysis | TICGL
Bank of Tanzania · April 2026 Monthly Economic Review · TICGL Analysis

Tanzania External Sector Performance: Year Ending March 2026

A comprehensive breakdown of Tanzania's current account, goods and services exports, travel receipts, and import dynamics — with data tables, trend charts, and investment-grade insights.

Data Period: Year Ending March 2026 Source: Bank of Tanzania, Tanzania Revenue Authority Analysis: TICGL Economic Intelligence
Current Account Balance
−$2.68B
▼ Widened 33.3%
vs −$2.01B in Mar 2025
Total Exports (Goods & Services)
$18.60B
▲ +12.8% YoY
Year ending March 2026
Gold Exports
$5.22B
▲ +38.5% YoY
Largest single export driver
Travel Receipts (Tourism)
$4.34B
▲ +9.3% YoY
Robust international arrivals
Total Imports
$19.37B
▲ +13.6% YoY
Capital goods surge signals investment
Forex Reserves
$6.08B
▲ +6.9% YoY
Covers 4.7 months of imports

Current Account: Widening Deficit Driven by Import Growth

Tanzania's current account deficit widened to USD 2,680.1 million in the year ending March 2026, from USD 2,009.9 million in the corresponding period of 2025 — a deterioration of 33.3%. The primary driver was stronger growth in imports, particularly industrial supplies and capital goods, which outpaced robust export growth. Despite the widening, foreign exchange reserves remained adequate at USD 6,084.4 million — sufficient to cover 4.7 months of projected imports.

Key Insight: While the current account deficit widened, the composition of the import surge is constructive — capital goods and industrial supplies dominate, signalling a domestic investment-led expansion rather than consumption-driven deterioration. Gold exports provide a structural hedge against higher import costs.
Current Account Summary — Year Ending March
Millions of USD · Provisional data for 2026
ItemMar-25 (Monthly)Feb-26 (Monthly)Mar-26 (Monthly)2024 (Annual)2025 (Annual)2026p (Annual)Change %
Goods Account (Net)−318.9−341.5−762.8−6,049.5−4,524.9−4,891.3+8.1%
Exports of Goods713.61,070.1815.07,718.59,593.211,076.9+15.5%
Imports of Goods1,032.61,411.61,577.813,768.014,118.115,968.2+13.1%
Services Account (Net)242.7329.8190.34,093.23,972.04,121.0+3.8%
Services Receipts513.6627.0494.76,390.86,905.07,526.6+9.0%
Services Payments271.0297.2304.32,297.62,933.03,405.6+16.1%
Primary Income Account (Net)−167.6−220.0−214.8−1,583.9−1,987.5−2,181.5+9.8%
Secondary Income Account (Net)27.014.813.5698.2530.5271.7−48.8%
Current Account Balance−216.9−216.9−773.8−2,842.0−2,009.9−2,680.1+33.3%

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks, and Bank of Tanzania calculations. 'p' denotes provisional data.

Current Account Balance Trend
Annual (USD Millions) — 2021 to 2026
Goods vs Services Balance
Year ending March (USD Millions)
Foreign Exchange Reserves & Import Coverage
Gross official reserves (USD Millions) and months of import cover

Source: Bank of Tanzania. Country benchmark = 4.0 months; EAC benchmark = 4.5 months.

⚠ Risk Note: The secondary income surplus narrowed sharply by 48.8% to USD 271.7 million, driven mainly by a decline in personal transfers (remittances). This trend warrants monitoring as it reduces a historically reliable buffer within the current account.

Exports & Services Receipts: Gold and Tourism Lead the Surge

Total exports of goods and services reached USD 18,603.5 million in the year ending March 2026, a 12.8% increase from USD 16,498.2 million a year earlier. Gold and travel receipts jointly accounted for 51.4% of total exports. Goods exports rose 15.5% to USD 11,076.9 million while services receipts grew 9.0% to USD 7,526.6 million.

Goods Exports
$11.08B
▲ +15.5%
Gold Exports
$5.22B
▲ +38.5%
Manufactured Goods
$1.80B
▲ +32.0%
Traditional Exports
$1.61B
▲ +8.2%
Services Receipts
$7.53B
▲ +9.0%
Travel Receipts
$4.34B
▲ +9.3%
Exports of Goods & Services by Category
Year Ending March 2025 vs 2026p (USD Millions)

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania computations.

Services Receipts by Category
Year Ending March (USD Millions)
Service Category2024 (Annual)2025 (Annual)2026p (Annual)YoY ChangeMar-26 (Monthly)vs Mar-25
Travel (Tourism)3,558.73,967.74,337.1+9.3%
Transport2,273.42,404.32,742.6+14.1%
Other Services558.7533.1446.9−16.2%
Total Services Receipts6,390.86,905.07,526.6+9.0%494.7−3.7%

Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations. Other services include construction, insurance, financial, telecommunications, computer and information, IP charges, government, personal and business services.

Services Receipts Trend
Travel · Transport · Other (USD Millions) — 3-Year View
Services Receipts Composition 2026
Share of total services receipts
Key Goods Export Categories — Year Ending March
USD Millions · Selected major commodities
Commodity20222023202420252026pYoY Change
Non-Traditional Exports — Minerals
Gold2,670.82,890.03,106.63,771.15,222.8+38.5%
Diamond19.257.630.546.548.9+5.2%
Tanzanite23.926.221.218.915.5−18.0%
Non-Traditional Exports — Manufactured Goods
Manufactured Goods Total1,184.21,453.11,357.11,365.81,802.7+32.0%
Iron & Steel96.1105.168.192.2149.2+61.8%
Glassware47.850.468.793.4131.6+40.9%
Traditional Exports
Tobacco145.7173.1389.2517.2572.5+10.7%
Coffee161.8181.9227.7331.1389.6+17.7%
Cashewnuts195.2199.8224.7527.9479.3−9.2%
Cotton83.5107.7110.457.595.8+66.6%
Sisal19.126.619.027.633.0+19.6%
Tea31.330.428.419.911.7−41.2%
Total Goods Exports6,875.07,369.97,718.59,593.211,076.9+15.5%

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania computations.

Gold Export Earnings: 5-Year Trajectory
USD Millions — Year Ending March 2022 to 2026
Tanzania's Gold-Oil Natural Hedge: Gold exports generate 30–40% of the country's foreign exchange earnings, with export values exceeding USD 5.2 billion in the year ending March 2026. During geopolitical episodes, oil and gold prices historically move in tandem — meaning higher oil costs are offset by expanded gold revenues. This structural feature provides Tanzania with macroeconomic resilience that most regional peers lack.

Imports & Services Payments: Investment-Led Growth with Energy Risk

Imports grew 13.6% to USD 19,373.8 million in the year ending March 2026. The expansion was concentrated in capital goods — industrial transport equipment (+42.5%), machinery (+24.2%), and electrical equipment (+41.0%) — signalling a robust acceleration in domestic investment. Refined petroleum product imports declined 12.8% but remain vulnerable to the Strait of Hormuz crisis-induced oil price surge. Services payments rose 16.1% to USD 3,405.6 million, driven by higher freight costs.

Goods Imports by Category — Year Ending March
USD Millions · Selected major categories
Category20222023202420252026pYoY Change
Capital Goods1,756.72,816.22,857.42,925.13,967.7+35.6%
Machinery & Mechanical Appliances747.31,228.31,209.61,057.21,313.2+24.2%
Industrial Transport Equipment485.5923.6930.91,095.51,561.7+42.5%
Electrical Machinery & Equipment298.0337.6424.4439.2619.3+41.0%
Intermediate Goods7,790.210,358.59,450.19,762.010,380.0+6.3%
Industrial Supplies3,721.94,740.94,355.94,781.55,601.0+17.1%
Fuel & Lubricants2,277.03,586.32,879.62,678.92,291.8−14.5%
→ Refined Petroleum Products2,167.43,392.42,664.22,514.02,192.8−12.8%
Fertilisers205.3622.4312.9378.6415.6+9.8%
Parts & Accessories944.8966.6985.51,108.01,173.0+5.9%
Consumer Goods1,235.91,368.61,458.31,428.81,618.3+13.3%
Pharmaceutical Products326.5314.7317.2261.2296.8+13.6%
Total Imports (f.o.b)10,785.014,545.513,768.014,118.115,968.2+13.1%

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority and Bank of Tanzania computations. f.o.b. = free on board.

Imports by Broad Category
2025 vs 2026p (USD Millions)
Petroleum Products Import Trend
Refined white petroleum products (USD Millions)
Services Payments by Category
Year Ending March (USD Millions)
Service Category2024 (Annual)2025 (Annual)2026p (Annual)YoY ChangeMar-26 (Monthly)vs Mar-25
Travel363.3601.9715.1+18.8%
Transport (Freight)1,274.61,405.11,614.1+14.9%
Other Services659.7925.91,076.4+16.2%
Total Services Payments2,297.62,933.03,405.6+16.1%304.3+12.3%

Source: Banks and Bank of Tanzania computations. Other services include construction, insurance, financial, telecoms, IP charges, government, personal and business services.

Services Payments Trend: Travel · Transport · Other
USD Millions — Year Ending March 2024 to 2026
⚠ Strait of Hormuz Risk: Although refined petroleum import costs fell 12.8% in the year ending March 2026 (reflecting earlier price moderation), the military conflict that effectively closed the Strait in March 2026 has since driven crude oil prices to USD 95.58 per barrel (from USD 68.01 in February 2026). Container freight rates have surged above USD 4,800 per 40-foot unit. Both factors will materially increase import costs in the next reporting period.

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