Navigating Challenges and Seizing Opportunities

Executive Summary:

The Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) sector in Tanzania, particularly in Dar es Salaam, plays a crucial role in driving economic growth, fostering innovation, and creating employment opportunities. However, despite its significance, the sector faces formidable challenges that hinder its sustainable development and growth.

This executive summary provides an overview of the key findings and recommendations derived from a comprehensive study conducted to understand the dynamics of the Tanzania MSME landscape, explore the challenges and opportunities facing small businesses, and assess the effectiveness of government support mechanisms and regulatory frameworks.

Key Findings:

• High Business Attrition Rate: A significant portion of businesses, especially in Dar es Salaam, fail within their first year of operation, highlighting systemic barriers to business sustainability.
• MSME Challenges: Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises encounter various obstacles, including financial constraints, marketing difficulties, regulatory hurdles, and limited access to start-up capital.
• Government Support and Regulatory Concerns: There are concerns regarding the adequacy of government support for MSMEs, coupled with perceptions of regulatory barriers that impede business growth and innovation.

Recommendations:

• Policy Reforms: The government should consider reforms to streamline regulatory processes, reduce bureaucratic hurdles, and create a conducive business environment for MSMEs.
• Access to Finance: Efforts should be made to enhance access to finance for MSMEs, particularly addressing the challenge of start-up capital through specialized lending programs and alternative financing mechanisms.
• Capacity Building: Invest in capacity building initiatives aimed at enhancing the managerial and technical skills of MSME owners and employees.
• Public-Private Partnerships: Foster collaboration between the government, private sector, and civil society organizations to implement targeted interventions and support initiatives.
• Research and Monitoring: Continued research and monitoring of the MSME sector are essential to track progress, identify emerging challenges, and inform evidence-based policymaking.

Conclusion:

Tanzania can unlock the full potential of small businesses, drive sustainable economic growth, and catalyze socio-economic transformation in the country. Collaboration between stakeholders is critical to address the multifaceted challenges facing MSMEs and create an inclusive and vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem that empowers small businesses to thrive.

This research aims to investigate tax estimation methodologies employed by the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) and the Tanzanian government's evaluation of tax policies, with a focus on stakeholders' perspectives and experiences. Utilizing an online information gathering system, data was collected over a three-month period spanning from November 2023 to January 2024. The study primarily targeted businessmen and other stakeholders involved in business operations and taxation in Tanzania.

Findings from the research revealed several key insights:

• Tax Estimation Parameters: Stakeholders expressed concerns about the adequacy of TRA's consideration of various parameters such as business size, age, ownership structure, industrial sector, and location in its tax estimation processes. There is a perceived lack of alignment between TRA's estimations and the unique characteristics of businesses, potentially leading to inequities in tax burdens.
• Government Oversight and Policy Evaluation: While stakeholders exhibited moderate confidence in the government's assessment of tax burden for investment attraction, doubts were raised regarding its effectiveness in ensuring consistency in tax policies over time. This highlights the need for enhanced government oversight and transparency in tax policy formulation and implementation.
• Tax Challenges Faced by Businesses: Stakeholders identified a range of tax challenges faced by businesses in Tanzania, including complexities in tax regulations, inconsistencies in tax assessments, and concerns about the competitiveness of Tanzania's tax regime in attracting investment.

Based on these findings, recommendations for policy refinement and future research include:

• Enhancing TRA's understanding and incorporation of diverse business characteristics into tax estimations.
• Strengthening government oversight mechanisms to ensure consistency and transparency in tax policies.
• Addressing tax challenges faced by businesses through regulatory reforms and capacity-building initiatives.

Hence, this research provides valuable insights into the complexities of tax estimation and policy evaluation in Tanzania, with implications for fostering a more equitable, transparent, and conducive tax environment for businesses.

Enhancing the Business Environment in Tanzania

In the ever-evolving landscape of global commerce, the attractiveness of a country for investment hinges significantly on its business environment. For Tanzania, a nation with rich economic potential, understanding the intricacies of the business climate is paramount. This case study delves into the multifaceted aspects that shape the business environment in Tanzania, aiming to uncover valuable insights from the perspectives of diverse stakeholders. Our research draws on the experiences and expectations of local and foreign investors, development stakeholders, government officers, and businessmen, offering a holistic view of the challenges, opportunities, and dynamics influencing business decisions.

Research Objective:

Our primary objective is to provide a nuanced analysis of the Tanzanian business environment, employing a comprehensive methodology that combines in-depth interviews and online questionnaires. By engaging with key stakeholders, we seek to unearth the factors that either propel or impede investment, development initiatives, and the collaborative relationship between the government and businesses. The study period, spanning November to January 2023-2024, captures a current snapshot, allowing for a dynamic assessment of the prevailing conditions.

Inflation Rates:

Tanzania's inflation rates, assessed across various sectors in December 2023, indicate a varied economic landscape. While the overall inflation rate stands at 113.34, showing a 3% increase over the year, certain sectors, such as clothing and footwear, witnessed significant month-to-month and year-to-year fluctuations. The data suggests that inflationary pressures are present, but the impact varies across different segments of the economy, potentially influenced by factors like supply chain disruptions or sector-specific dynamics.

Money Supply:

Tanzania's money supply in October 2023 reveals dynamic changes in both net foreign assets and net domestic assets. Notably, there was a substantial increase in extended broad money (M3), while narrow money supply (M1) experienced a decrease. This suggests fluctuations in the liquidity of the financial system, potentially influenced by changes in foreign reserves, domestic claims, and deposit dynamics. Policymakers may need to carefully monitor these trends for insights into economic stability and financial health.

Export to Import Rates:

Examining Tanzania's export-to-import rates for November 2023 reveals a positive growth trajectory in both exports and imports, with a notable increase in the balance of payments. Despite a minor decline in the export of goods and services, the import sector remained resilient, resulting in a decrease in the trade deficit. This data highlights the importance of assessing both export and import dynamics to understand the overall trade performance and economic resilience of the country.

Current Account:

The data on Tanzania's current account for November 2023 presents a mixed economic picture. While the services sector exhibits a surplus, the goods account and the overall goods and services balance reflect deficits, contributing to an overall current account deficit. The year-on-year changes underscore the dynamic nature of Tanzania's economic conditions, influenced by global trade patterns, commodity prices, and income flows. Policymakers may need to focus on strategies to address trade imbalances and ensure the sustainability of the current account position.

National Debts:

Tanzania's national debts development for November 2023 shows incremental growth in both external and domestic debts. External debt increased by 1%, while domestic debt saw a similar uptick. The total national debt reached 98,802,876.00 USD, reflecting a 7% increase over the year. Policymakers must carefully manage the country's debt levels, ensuring borrowed funds contribute to sustainable economic development and that the overall debt burden remains manageable over the long term.

Government Budget Analysis:

The government budget performance evaluation for October 2023 provides insights into Tanzania's financial management. While development expenditure increased by 50%, indicating a focus on long-term projects, revenue challenges were evident, particularly with a decrease in income tax collections. The expansion of the budget deficit by 44% raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, requiring policymakers to refine strategies for revenue mobilization, cost management, and aligning expenditures with national priorities. The data suggests a nuanced view of both successes and challenges in the government's fiscal approach during this period.

As of the period ending on December 31, 2023, both NMB Bank and CRDB Bank have exhibited notable financial performance, reflecting various key metrics that are indicative of their operational strength and market presence.

NMB Bank reported total assets amounting to 12.2 trillion Tanzania Shillings, representing a remarkable 19% growth. This increase underscores the bank's ability to expand its asset base, possibly through effective investment strategies or successful acquisition initiatives. On the other hand, CRDB Bank demonstrated a total asset growth of 14%, reaching 13.2 trillion Tanzania Shillings. Although slightly lower than NMB Bank's growth rate, this still signifies a substantial increase in the bank's overall financial standing.

In terms of total deposits, NMB Bank recorded 8.4 trillion Tanzania Shillings, marking an 11% growth. This suggests a consistent influx of funds into the bank, likely driven by customer trust and effective deposit mobilization efforts. CRDB Bank, while also experiencing growth, posted a total deposit figure of 8.9 trillion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting an 8% increase. This showcases the bank's ability to attract and retain deposits, albeit at a slightly lower growth rate compared to NMB Bank.

Loan and advances, a critical aspect of banking operations, showed significant growth for both institutions. NMB Bank reported a loan and advances portfolio of 7.7 trillion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a substantial 28% increase. This growth may indicate the bank's proactive approach in extending credit facilities to businesses and individuals. Similarly, CRDB Bank exhibited a robust performance in this area with a loan and advances portfolio of 8.5 trillion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a commendable 23% growth.

Moving on to profitability, NMB Bank demonstrated strong financial results. The bank reported a profit before tax of 775 billion Tanzania Shillings, indicating a notable 26% increase. Additionally, the profit after tax for NMB Bank amounted to 542 billion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a similar 26% growth. These figures underscore the bank's ability to generate profits efficiently, possibly through effective cost management and revenue generation strategies.

CRDB Bank, while also delivering positive financial results, exhibited a profit before tax of 599 billion Tanzania Shillings, showing a 20% increase. The profit after tax for CRDB Bank stood at 424 billion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a 21% growth. These figures indicate the bank's capacity to maintain solid profitability, although at a slightly lower growth rate compared to NMB Bank.

Hence, both NMB Bank and CRDB Bank demonstrated commendable financial performance for the period ended December 31, 2023, with NMB Bank showcasing higher growth rates in key areas such as total assets, total deposits, loan and advances, as well as profitability. These financial indicators provide valuable insights into the operational efficiency and market competitiveness of the two banks during the specified period.

The health and competitiveness of these banks in the Tanzania financial sector:

The financial data reveals that both NMB Bank and CRDB Bank are robust financial institutions, with NMB Bank showcasing higher growth rates in key areas. Investors, regulators, and other stakeholders may use this information to assess the banks' financial health, operational strategies, and overall market competitiveness.

Asset Growth and Stability:

NMB Bank has shown a higher growth rate in total assets (19%) compared to CRDB Bank (14%). This suggests that NMB Bank has been successful in expanding its asset base, possibly through strategic investments or acquisitions, making it a key player in the market.

Deposit Mobilization:

Both banks experienced growth in total deposits, indicating the ability to attract and retain customer funds. NMB Bank's 11% growth in deposits may suggest effective deposit mobilization efforts, while CRDB Bank, with an 8% growth, also demonstrated strength in this area but at a slightly lower rate.

Lending Activities:

Both banks exhibited substantial growth in loan and advances portfolios, suggesting active participation in lending to businesses and individuals. NMB Bank's 28% growth and CRDB Bank's 23% growth in this category indicate a willingness to extend credit and support economic activities.

Profitability:

NMB Bank reported higher growth rates in both profit before tax (26%) and profit after tax (26%) compared to CRDB Bank, which reported a 20% growth in profit before tax and a 21% growth in profit after tax. This signifies that NMB Bank was more efficient in managing costs or generating revenues during the specified period.

Overall Competitiveness:

The data suggests that NMB Bank had a relatively stronger financial performance during this period, with higher growth rates in key metrics. However, CRDB Bank also demonstrated positive growth across various parameters, indicating its stability and competitiveness in the market.

Market Positioning:

NMB Bank's higher growth rates across multiple financial indicators might position it as a more dynamic and rapidly growing institution. CRDB Bank, while still showing positive growth, might be perceived as slightly more conservative or stable in its approach.

The forecasting performance in the coming year (2024) requires consideration of various factors, including economic conditions, regulatory changes, and the banks' strategic initiatives.

Growth Trajectory:

In November 2023, the telecommunication landscape in the region was marked by significant subscription numbers for various providers. Airtel witnessed a subscription base of 18,932,628, which slightly increased to 19,146,016 in December. Hallotel, another telecom operator, had 8,192,481 subscribers in November, and this figure grew to 8,529,919 by the end of December. Tigo's user base also experienced growth, with November's 18,923,699 subscribers expanding to 19,698,263 in December. TTCL (Tanzania Telecommunication Company Limited) had a more modest subscriber base, starting at 1,634,231 in November and reaching 1,644,194 in December. Vodacom, a prominent telecom player, began with 21,127,719 subscribers in November and closed the year with 21,272,484 in December.

On the mobile money front, the data reveals a similar pattern of growth in subscriptions. Airtel's mobile money subscriptions stood at 11,238,059 in November, experiencing a slight dip to 11,166,688 by December. Hallotel had 3,985,603 mobile money subscribers in November, which increased to 4,034,261 by the end of December. Tigo's mobile money user base also grew from 16,019,568 in November to 16,260,532 in December. TTCL started with 1,360,058 mobile money subscribers in November and saw a slight uptick to 1,370,470 in December. Vodacom exhibited substantial growth, starting with 19,466,821 mobile money subscribers in November and concluding December with 20,043,178.

These figures depict a dynamic telecommunications and mobile money market, showcasing fluctuations and growth across various providers over the two-month period. The data suggests an active and evolving landscape, with users engaging with both telecom and mobile money services.

The number of telecom and mobile money subscriptions for November and December 2023 offers insights into the dynamics of the telecommunications and financial services sectors in the specified region during that time frame.

The data reflects a dynamic and competitive market where telecom and mobile money service providers are actively working to attract and retain users. The observed trends highlight the importance of understanding consumer preferences and adapting strategies to meet evolving market demands.

Telecom Subscription Trends:

• Airtel, Tigo, and Vodacom witnessed an increase in their telecom subscription numbers over the two-month period, suggesting a growing user base for these providers.
• Hallotel and TTCL also experienced growth, albeit on a smaller scale compared to the major players.

Mobile Money Subscription Trends:

• The mobile money sector also demonstrated growth for most providers, with Airtel, Hallotel, Tigo, and Vodacom all experiencing an expansion in their user base.
• The data indicates that mobile money services are gaining popularity among consumers, as reflected in the increasing subscription numbers.

Variability in Subscription Numbers:

• While some providers saw consistent growth in both telecom and mobile money subscriptions (e.g., Vodacom), others experienced fluctuations or minor decreases (e.g., Airtel's mobile money subscriptions).
• The variability in subscription numbers across providers may be influenced by factors such as marketing strategies, service quality, and promotions during the observed period.

Competitive Landscape:

• The data reveals a competitive landscape among telecom operators, with major players like Airtel and Vodacom maintaining large subscription bases.
• The mobile money sector is also competitive, with multiple providers actively vying for users.

Consumer Behavior:

• The growth in both telecom and mobile money subscriptions suggests that consumers in the region are actively engaging with and adopting these services.
• Mobile money services, in particular, seem to be gaining traction, possibly indicating a shift towards digital financial transactions.

Tanzania experienced fluctuations in food inflation rates over the period from August 2022 to June 2024, with a discernible trend of decrease in the latter part of the observed period.

In August 2022, Tanzania's food inflation stood at 7.8%, indicating the cost increase of food items compared to the same period in the previous year. The inflation rate continued to rise in subsequent months, reaching its peak in December 2022 at 9.7%. This upward trajectory persisted into January 2023, where the food inflation rate reached 9.9%.

However, a notable shift occurred starting from June 2023, as the food inflation rate began to steadily decline. By December 2023, the rate had dropped significantly to 2.3%. This downward trend in food inflation continued into 2024, with January showing a slight increase to 3.7%, possibly indicating a mild fluctuation rather than a reversal of the overall decreasing trend.

Looking ahead, the forecast for food inflation in Tanzania for the remainder of 2024 suggests a continued but slower decrease. February 2024 sees a modest increase to 4.0%, followed by a further rise in March to 4.3%. However, these figures are still notably lower than the peak observed in 2022. As the forecast progresses, April, May, and June 2024 show a gradual increase in food inflation, reaching 4.9%, 5.8%, and 6.9%, respectively. While these rates are higher than the preceding months, they remain lower than the levels observed in the initial months of the analyzed period.

Tanzania experienced a period of increasing food inflation rates from August 2022 to January 2023, reaching its peak in December 2022. However, from June 2023 onwards, there was a consistent decline in food inflation, with occasional minor fluctuations. The forecast for the first half of 2024 suggests a continuation of this decreasing trend, albeit with some modest increases in certain months.

Tanzania's food inflation from August 2022 to June 2024 indicates a dynamic trend with fluctuations and a noticeable shift in the latter part of the period.

The data implies a shift from an initially increasing food inflation trend to a subsequent and consistent decrease from June 2023 onwards. The forecast for 2024 suggests a continuation of this declining trend with some minor fluctuations.

Hence, this research provides insights into the changing economic dynamics and the potential trajectory of food prices in Tanzania over the analyzed period.

Initial Increase and Peak (August 2022 to December 2022):

The data shows an upward trajectory in food inflation rates during the initial months, reaching its peak at 9.7% in December 2022. This period suggests a notable increase in the cost of food items.

Decrease in Food Inflation (January 2023 to December 2023):

A significant change occurs from June 2023 onwards, where the food inflation rate begins a consistent decline. By December 2023, the rate drops significantly to 2.3%. This phase indicates a reversal in the inflationary trend, signifying a decrease in the overall cost of food items.

Forecast for 2024:

The data provides a forecast for the first half of 2024, indicating a continuation of the decreasing trend in food inflation. While there are some modest fluctuations, the forecasted rates for the months of January to June 2024 remain lower than the peak observed in 2022.

Mild Fluctuations in 2024:

The forecast suggests a mild fluctuation in food inflation during the first half of 2024. January 2024 sees a slight increase to 3.7%, followed by small increments in February (4.0%) and March (4.3%). The subsequent months show a gradual rise, reaching 6.9% in June 2024. These increases, however, are still lower than the peak levels observed in 2022.

The inflation rates in Tanzania have displayed a certain degree of stability and a gradual decrease over the specified time period. In January 2022, the inflation rate stood at 4.8%, followed by a marginal increase to 4.9% in February and March, and then a return to 4.8% in April. This period showcased a relatively steady inflationary trend.

Moving to 2023, the inflation rates continued to decline, starting with 4.9% in January and gradually decreasing to 3% in December. Notable drops occurred in May (4%), June (3.6%), and July (3.3%). The latter part of the year demonstrated a consistent inflation rate of around 3%, indicating a trend towards lower inflationary pressures.

Looking ahead to the forecast for 2024, the inflation rates are projected to remain relatively low. In January, the forecast anticipates a slight increase to 3.1%, followed by a gradual upward trend in the subsequent months: 3.3% in February, 3.5% in March, 3.7% in April, 4.0% in May, and 4.3% in June. These forecasts suggest a cautious but moderate rise in inflation rates throughout the year, indicating a measured economic environment.

Tanzania has experienced a period of stable and gradually decreasing inflation rates from 2022 to the end of 2023. The forecast for 2024 suggests a modest uptick in inflation, but overall, the trend appears to be one of controlled inflationary pressures. Economic conditions and various factors will play a crucial role in determining whether these forecasts hold true.

Tanzania's inflation rates convey insights about the country's economic conditions over the specified time frame.

The trends and forecasts in Tanzania's inflation rates suggest a generally stable and well-managed economic environment. Policymakers and analysts can use this information to make informed decisions and adjustments to ensure sustained economic stability in the country.

Stability and Gradual Decline:

The inflation rates in Tanzania have exhibited a degree of stability, with minor fluctuations. From January 2022 to December 2023, there is a consistent trend of gradual decline. This can be indicative of effective economic management and policies aimed at controlling inflationary pressures.

Measured Economic Environment:

The inflation rates, especially in the later months of 2023 and the forecast for 2024, suggest a measured economic environment. The gradual decline followed by a modest forecasted increase indicates that inflation is being managed within a controlled range. This is generally positive for economic stability, as sharp spikes in inflation can lead to various economic challenges.

Forecasted Uptick in 2024:

While the trend is generally downward in the earlier years, the forecast for 2024 shows a slight increase in inflation rates. This may be an indication that certain economic factors or policy changes are expected to contribute to a moderate rise in inflation. However, the forecasted values remain relatively low, suggesting a cautious and manageable trajectory.

Economic Predictability:

The fact that inflation rates are forecasted well into the future indicates a degree of economic predictability. Policymakers, businesses, and individuals can use this information to make informed decisions about investments, savings, and consumption.

Factors Influencing Inflation:

Understanding the specific factors driving inflation is crucial. Economic events, changes in government policies, global economic conditions, and domestic economic activities can all influence inflation rates. Analyzing these factors can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the economic landscape.

Tanzania has registered an interest rate of 5.5% for the month of January, and this rate will be applicable throughout the first quarter of 2024. This positions Tanzania among the ten African countries with relatively low interest rates. The leader in this regard is Cape Verde with an interest rate of 1.25%, followed by Seychelles at 2%, Botswana at 2.4%, and then Morocco, Libya, and Algeria, all sharing an interest rate of 3%. Subsequently, Comoros follows with an interest rate of 3.08%, Mauritius at 4.5%, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Gabon, Chad, and Cameroon, all sharing an interest rate of 5%. Finally, Tanzania concludes the list with an interest rate of 5.5%. As of January 2024, Zimbabwe currently holds the highest interest rate in Africa at 130%.

Among East African nations, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the sole country with a low interest rate of 5%, followed by Tanzania with an interest rate of 5.5%. Rwanda follows with an interest rate of 7.5%, Uganda at 9.5%, and Burundi with an interest rate of 12%. Kenya wraps up the list with an interest rate of 12.5%.

Tanzania's economic and monetary policy landscape:

Tanzania's monetary policy is adapting to a new interest rate-based framework, and the economic outlook suggests a focus on maintaining stability, containing inflation, and supporting growth, with a positive assessment of domestic and external economic conditions.

Monetary Policy Transition:

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) conducted its meeting on January 18, 2024, marking the first time the Bank of Tanzania implemented monetary policy using interest rates. This shift is highlighted as a significant milestone in the country's monetary policy transformation.

Interest Rate Decision:

The MPC decided to set the Central Bank Rate (CBR), or policy rate, at 5.5 percent for the first quarter of 2024. The decision considers the dual objectives of containing inflation within the medium-term target of 5 percent and supporting economic growth, aiming for a growth rate of 5.5 percent or higher in 2024. The stability of the exchange rate is also a key consideration.

Economic Performance and Outlook:

• Global Economy: The global economic growth was weak in 2023 and is projected to persist in the first quarter of 2024 due to geopolitical tensions, monetary policy tightening, and economic uncertainties.
• Inflation Trends: Inflation declined globally, though advanced economies remained above the 2 percent target. In the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) blocs, most countries experienced inflation below the specified criteria.
• Commodity Prices: Commodity prices were volatile, with a decline in oil prices in late 2023. There is an expectation of further oil price decline in the first quarter of 2024, but geopolitical tensions pose a risk.

Domestic Economic Performance:

• Growth: The domestic economy performed well in 2023, with a growth rate of 5.3 percent in the third quarter. Zanzibar's economy grew at 7 percent. For the first quarter of 2024, Mainland Tanzania is projected to have a growth rate of 5.2 percent.
• Inflation: Inflationary pressures remained muted, with a decline to 3 percent in December 2023. Projections indicate inflation around 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2024, with potential risks related to geopolitical conflicts.

Monetary Conditions and Financial Sector Stability:

• Monetary Conditions: Monetary conditions tightened in 2023, with slowed money supply growth. Private sector credit growth remained strong.
• Financial Sector: The financial sector remained stable, with a liquid and profitable banking sector. Asset quality improved, and non-performing loans decreased.

Fiscal Performance:

Government fiscal performance was satisfactory, with revenue improvement, expenditure alignment, and measures to broaden the tax base.

External Sector Improvement:

The external sector improved, with a declining current account deficit, forex inflows, adequate foreign reserves, and a stable exchange rate. The external sector is expected to continue improving in the first quarter of 2024.

Exchange Rate Stability:

The MPC emphasized the need to implement measures to enhance the interbank foreign exchange market and ensure the stability of the exchange rate.

Tanzania's economic landscape, focusing on recent developments in monetary policy, interest rates, and the overall economic performance.

Tanzania's economic landscape is characterized by a significant shift in monetary policy, a cautious approach to interest rates, positive domestic economic performance, and measures to maintain stability in the face of global economic challenges. The country aims to balance inflation containment with support for economic growth, reflecting a strategic and forward-looking approach to economic management.

1. Monetary Policy Transition:

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held a significant meeting on January 18, 2024, marking the initiation of monetary policy implementation using interest rates.

The transition from monetary targeting to an interest rate-based framework is considered a major milestone in Tanzania's monetary policy evolution.

2. Interest Rate Decision:

The MPC decided to set the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.5 percent for the first quarter of 2024.

The decision reflects a balance between containing inflation within the medium-term target and supporting economic growth, with a specific growth target of 5.5 percent or more in 2024.

3. Global Economic Context:

The global economic scenario is characterized by weak growth in 2023, projected to persist into the first quarter of 2024.

Factors such as geopolitical tensions, tightening monetary policies, and economic uncertainties contribute to the global economic challenges.

4. Domestic Economic Performance:

Tanzania's domestic economy performed well in 2023, with growth rates exceeding 5 percent in the third quarter.

Projections indicate continued growth in Mainland Tanzania, with a rate of 5.2 percent expected in the first quarter of 2024.

5. Inflation Trends:

Inflationary pressures remained subdued globally, with advanced economies experiencing inflation above the 2 percent target.

In Tanzania, inflation declined to 3 percent in December 2023, and projections indicate stability around 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2024.

6. Monetary Conditions and Financial Sector Stability:

Monetary conditions tightened in 2023, leading to slowed money supply growth. Despite this, private sector credit growth remained strong.

The financial sector demonstrated stability, with a liquid and profitable banking sector, improved asset quality, and decreased non-performing loans.

7. Fiscal Performance:

Government fiscal performance in Tanzania was satisfactory, with revenue improvements and prudent expenditure management during the first half of 2023/24.

8. External Sector Improvement:

The external sector showed improvement, marked by a declining current account deficit, increased forex inflows, adequate foreign reserves, and a stable exchange rate.

Foreign reserves reached USD 5.5 billion at the end of December 2023, equivalent to 4.5 months of projected imports.

9. Exchange Rate Stability:

The MPC emphasized the importance of implementing measures to enhance the interbank foreign exchange market and ensure the stability of the exchange rate.

This research presents a detailed breakdown of the monthly actual and forecasted values for the Tanzania Revenues Authority (TRA) collections in the years 2023 and 2024, as predicted by the TICGL Macro econometric model. In 2023, TRA successfully collected a total of TZS 25,541,805.00 trillion, with an average monthly collection of TZS 2 trillion.

Examining the monthly specifics for 2023, the revenue collection varied, with the highest monthly collection occurring in December at TZS 3,049,319.00 trillion, and the lowest in February at TZS 1,600,841.00 trillion. This variation reflects potential factors influencing tax revenue, such as economic activities, seasonal fluctuations, and specific tax deadlines.

Looking ahead to 2024, the TICGL model predicts a substantial increase in total collections, estimating a sum of TZS 36,533,297.97 trillion. This forecast suggests a positive outlook for TRA revenues in the coming year. The monthly projections for 2024 indicate an upward trend, with the highest anticipated collection in December at TZS 3,702,863.70 trillion.

Analyzing the month-to-month forecasts for 2024, it is evident that the TICGL model anticipates consistent growth, with monthly collections expected to rise gradually. Notably, September is projected to have the highest collection at TZS 3,521,656.07 trillion. This detailed breakdown provides insights into the expected revenue trends for each month, aiding in understanding the economic dynamics and potential challenges or opportunities that TRA may face in the specified period.

The forecasted revenue collection as projected by the TICGL Macro econometric model in 2024:

Tanzania Revenues Authority can enhance its chances of reaching the forecasted revenue collection as projected by the TICGL Macro econometric model in 2024.

Monitoring and Adjusting Tax Policies:

TRA should closely monitor the economic landscape and be flexible in adjusting tax policies to align with the changing conditions. This might involve periodic reviews and adjustments to tax rates, exemptions, and incentives to stimulate economic activities and boost tax revenues.

Enhancing Tax Compliance and Enforcement:

Strengthening efforts to improve tax compliance and enforcement is crucial. TRA could implement stricter measures to deter tax evasion, such as leveraging technology for better monitoring and enforcement, conducting regular audits, and imposing penalties for non-compliance.

Targeting Key Sectors:

Identifying and focusing on key sectors with high revenue potential can contribute significantly to achieving revenue targets. TRA may analyze which sectors are driving economic growth and adjust their approach to tax collection within those sectors.

Collaboration with Businesses and Stakeholders:

Building strong partnerships with businesses and other stakeholders can foster a cooperative environment. TRA can engage in regular dialogues with businesses, industry associations, and other stakeholders to understand their challenges and collaboratively develop strategies to meet revenue targets.

Investing in Technology:

Utilizing advanced technology for tax administration can streamline processes, reduce inefficiencies, and improve overall revenue collection. Automation, data analytics, and digital platforms can enhance the efficiency of tax assessments, collections, and reporting.

Public Awareness and Education:

TRA may invest in public awareness campaigns and education programs to inform taxpayers about their obligations, the benefits of tax compliance, and the consequences of non-compliance. Well-informed taxpayers are more likely to fulfill their obligations willingly.

Economic Growth Initiatives:

Collaborating with government agencies and policymakers to implement measures that stimulate economic growth can have a positive impact on tax revenues. A growing economy tends to result in increased business activities and higher taxable income.

Continuous Monitoring and Adjustment:

Regularly reviewing and adjusting strategies based on ongoing economic and tax collection trends is essential. TRA should remain agile and responsive to changes, refining its approach as necessary to meet or exceed revenue targets.