Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd

| Economic Research Centre

Expert Insights: Your Compass for Tanzania's Economic Landscape

Uncover expert analyses on Tanzania's economy and the East African business landscape through our Insights section. Stay informed and gain the crucial information you need to make strategic decisions in Tanzania's vibrant market.
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In 2023/24, Tanzania’s inflation within national medium-term target

In the fiscal year 2023/24, Tanzania successfully maintained its inflation rate within the national medium-term target of 3-5%, averaging 3.1%, a decrease from 4.6% in the previous year. However, regional disparities were evident: the Dar es Salaam Zone recorded the highest inflation at 5.4%, driven by rising non-food prices in categories such as housing and transport, while the Lake Zone enjoyed the lowest rate at 1.2%, reflecting the benefits of good harvests that reduced food prices significantly. Other regions displayed varying inflation levels, with the Northern Zone at 3.6%, the Central Zone at 2.5%, the South Eastern Zone at 2.4%, and the Southern Highlands Zone at 3.7%. This regional data underscores the critical role of agricultural performance in inflation control and highlights the need for targeted interventions in urban areas like Dar es Salaam to manage rising living costs effectively.

  1. National Inflation:
    • Overall national inflation averaged 3.1% in 2023/24, a decrease from 4.6% in the previous year (2022/23).
  2. Regional Inflation Rates:
    • Dar es Salaam Zone: Registered the highest inflation at 5.4%, up from 4.0% the previous year. This increase was driven by higher prices of non-food items, including clothing, footwear, housing, transport, and accommodation services.
    • Lake Zone: Experienced the lowest inflation rate of 1.2%, significantly down from 5.0% in 2022/23. This decrease was mainly due to lower food prices following good harvests.
    • Northern Zone: Inflation was 3.6%, slightly lower than the previous year’s 4.5%.
    • Central Zone: Recorded an inflation rate of 2.5%, down from 5.0% in 2022/23.
    • South Eastern Zone: Inflation eased to 2.4%, from 3.8% in 2022/23.
    • Southern Highlands Zone: Inflation was 3.7%, down from 5.0% the previous year.
  3. Factors Influencing Inflation:
    • Decrease in Food Prices: Good harvests in the 2022/23 crop season led to reduced food prices in most zones, helping lower inflation rates.
    • Non-Food Price Increases: In Dar es Salaam, inflation pressures were higher due to rising costs in non-food categories, such as housing and transport.

The regional inflation from 2023/24 with insights about Tanzania’s economic dynamics:

  1. Food Security and Inflation Control:
    • Lower inflation rates in most regions, particularly the Lake Zone (1.2%), indicate the positive impact of good harvests on food prices. This suggests that agriculture continues to play a central role in controlling inflation, as food prices significantly influence overall inflation rates in Tanzania.
  2. Cost of Living Disparities:
    • Higher inflation in Dar es Salaam (5.4%) points to the growing cost of living in urban areas, where demand for non-food items—such as housing, transport, and services—is more pronounced. This urban inflation pressure suggests that Tanzania’s cities, especially Dar es Salaam, may require targeted interventions to stabilize costs in these sectors.
  3. Dependence on Agriculture:
    • The decline in inflation in regions with strong agricultural production underscores the dependence of inflation control on agriculture. Tanzania’s reliance on food production for inflation management makes the economy sensitive to agricultural output and, by extension, climate variability. This highlights a need for diversification to reduce this vulnerability.
  4. Challenges in Managing Non-Food Inflation:
    • Despite national inflation targets being met, the rise in non-food prices, particularly in Dar es Salaam, reflects challenges in areas like housing and transportation. Addressing these could involve infrastructure investments, better urban planning, and policies to stabilize these costs.
  5. Uneven Economic Pressures:
    • The disparity in inflation rates across zones highlights uneven economic pressures and varying needs. While rural areas benefit from stable or falling food prices, urban areas face rising living costs, suggesting that policies may need to address regional inflation drivers more specifically.
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Tanzania’s Tax Revenue Growth in 2030

Tanzania has witnessed remarkable growth in tax revenues from 1996/97 to 2023/24, with total revenue increasing significantly across all major tax categories. For instance, Pay As You Earn (P.A.Y.E.) surged from 38.4 billion TShs to 3.32 trillion TShs, marking an astounding 8,558% growth and a consistent 20% annual growth rate. Similarly, Domestic VAT revenue soared from 67.1 billion TShs to 3.85 trillion TShs, reflecting a 5,635% increase with a steady 20% annual growth rate. Looking ahead to 2030, projections indicate that P.A.Y.E. could exceed 9.91 trillion TShs, while Domestic VAT may reach 11.48 trillion TShs, signaling a strong trajectory for Tanzania’s tax revenue and economic expansion.

Detailed Breakdown of Tax Items

  1. P.A.Y.E. (Pay As You Earn)
    • 1996/97: 38,357.8 Million TShs
    • 2023/24: 3,320,646.9 Million TShs
    • Total Growth: 8,558%
      • This indicates an astronomical increase, highlighting the success of revenue collection efforts and the growth of the formal employment sector.
    • Average Annual Growth Rate: 20%
      • A consistent growth rate that reflects robust economic performance and improved taxpayer compliance.
    • Forecast for 2030: 9,915,398.5 Million TShs
      • This projection suggests that as employment continues to grow, P.A.Y.E. will significantly contribute to total tax revenue.
  2. Corporation Tax
    • 1996/97: 54,689.7 Million TShs
    • 2023/24: 3,574,291.1 Million TShs
    • Total Growth: 6,433%
      • This growth indicates enhanced corporate profitability and compliance with tax regulations.
    • Average Annual Growth Rate: 18%
      • A steady increase that signifies the expansion of the business environment in Tanzania.
    • Forecast for 2030: 9,648,992.4 Million TShs
      • The forecast anticipates that corporate income will continue to rise, further boosting tax revenues.
  3. Individual Income Tax
    • 1996/97: 9,117.9 Million TShs
    • 2023/24: 284,795.6 Million TShs
    • Total Growth: 3,023%
      • Indicates significant growth in individual earnings and the effectiveness of tax collection mechanisms.
    • Average Annual Growth Rate: 16%
      • Reflects steady increases in individual income and compliance.
    • Forecast for 2030: 693,874.9 Million TShs
      • Projected growth suggests improvements in income levels across the population.
  4. Other Income Taxes
    • 1996/97: 23,442.3 Million TShs
    • 2023/24: 2,337,045.5 Million TShs
    • Total Growth: 9,870%
      • Indicates broadening of the tax base and increased revenue from various sources.
    • Average Annual Growth Rate: 19%
      • Consistent growth suggests effective tax policy implementation.
    • Forecast for 2030: 6,636,650.3 Million TShs
      • Expected growth points to ongoing improvements in revenue collection.
  5. Domestic Excise Duty
    • 1996/97: 61,923.3 Million TShs
    • 2023/24: 1,974,229.0 Million TShs
    • Total Growth: 3,088%
      • Reflects increased consumption of excise goods.
    • Average Annual Growth Rate: 15%
      • Suggests consistent consumption growth and tax compliance.
    • Forecast for 2030: 4,566,511.6 Million TShs
      • Future projections suggest continued revenue growth from excise duties.
  6. Domestic VAT (Value Added Tax)
    • 1996/97: 67,053.2 Million TShs
    • 2023/24: 3,845,345.9 Million TShs
    • Total Growth: 5,635%
      • Highlights substantial growth in consumption and services subject to VAT.
    • Average Annual Growth Rate: 20%
      • Indicates strong consumer spending and tax compliance.
    • Forecast for 2030: 11,482,141.3 Million TShs
      • Expected significant growth as consumer spending increases.
  7. Import Duty
    • 1996/97: 77,910.5 Million TShs
    • 2023/24: 1,845,087.5 Million TShs
    • Total Growth: 2,268%
      • Indicates increased imports and revenue generation from customs duties.
    • Average Annual Growth Rate: 13%
      • Suggests steady import growth.
    • Forecast for 2030: 3,841,383.2 Million TShs
      • Future increases expected as trade activities grow.
  8. Excise Duty on Imports
    • 1996/97: 29,760.1 Million TShs
    • 2023/24: 1,533,699.0 Million TShs
    • Total Growth: 5,053%
      • Reflects growth in imported goods subject to excise duties.
    • Average Annual Growth Rate: 17%
      • Indicates growing reliance on imported products.
    • Forecast for 2030: 3,934,189.8 Million TShs
      • Projections suggest further increases in revenue from import excise duties.
  9. VAT on Imports
    • 1996/97: 54,909.4 Million TShs
    • 2023/24: 3,748,862.6 Million TShs
    • Total Growth: 6,726%
      • Highlights substantial increases in imported goods and VAT revenue.
    • Average Annual Growth Rate: 18%
      • Reflects effective tax collection and growth in imports.
    • Forecast for 2030: 10,120,257.6 Million TShs
      • Future projections suggest a continued rise in VAT from imports.

Summary Analysis

  • Substantial Growth Across All Categories: The data shows impressive growth rates across all tax categories, indicating Tanzania's success in expanding its tax base and improving compliance.
  • Consistent Annual Growth Rates: Sustained growth rates in key areas like P.A.Y.E., Domestic VAT, and Corporation Tax reflect a dynamic economy with increasing formal employment and corporate activity.
  • Positive Outlook to 2030: The forecasts indicate significant revenue increases across all tax categories, with P.A.Y.E. and Domestic VAT projected to exceed 9.9 trillion TShs and 11.4 trillion TShs, respectively, suggesting robust economic growth and increased formalization of the economy.

The growth rate and percentage increase for each tax item from 1996/97 to 2023/24 alongside the forecasted figures for 2030:

Tax Item1996/97 (Million TShs)2023/24 (Million TShs)Total Growth (%)Average Annual Growth Rate (%)Forecast for 2030 (Million TShs)Growth Rate (%)
P.A.Y.E.38,357.83,320,646.98,558%20%9,915,398.520%
Corporation Tax54,689.73,574,291.16,433%18%9,648,992.418%
Individual Income Tax9,117.9284,795.63,023%16%693,874.916%
Other Income Taxes23,442.32,337,045.59,870%19%6,636,650.319%
Domestic Excise Duty61,923.31,974,229.03,088%15%4,566,511.615%
Domestic VAT67,053.23,845,345.95,635%20%11,482,141.320%
Import Duty77,910.51,845,087.52,268%13%3,841,383.213%
Excise Duty on Imports29,760.11,533,699.05,053%17%3,934,189.817%
VAT on Imports54,909.43,748,862.66,726%18%10,120,257.618%

Analysis of the Table:

  • Substantial Growth: The data illustrates that all tax categories have experienced impressive growth rates over the 27 years, demonstrating Tanzania's success in broadening its tax base.
  • Consistent Average Annual Growth Rates: The average annual growth rates indicate sustained growth across various tax items, particularly in P.A.Y.E., Domestic VAT, and Corporation Tax, which reflect the country's economic expansion and improved compliance.
  • Forecasted Growth to 2030: The forecast for 2030 shows that these trends are expected to continue, with significant increases in revenue for all tax items. The P.A.Y.E. is projected to exceed 9.9 trillion TShs, highlighting anticipated growth in formal employment and income levels.

Overall, these figures not only demonstrate the effectiveness of Tanzania's tax policies and administration over the past few decades but also indicate a positive economic outlook moving forward.

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The development of Tanzania's financial sector 2023/24 

The fiscal year 2023/24 marked significant growth in Tanzania's financial sector, with bank deposits increasing by 17.7% to TZS 35,544.2 billion, largely due to enhanced public confidence and innovative financial products. The Dar es Salaam Zone dominated these deposits, holding 61.7% of the total, while the Northern Zone contributed TZS 4,327.2 billion, indicating a shift towards financial activity in other regions. Bank loans surged by 21.4% to TZS 32,089.5 billion, reflecting effective policies promoting credit access for key sectors such as trade, agriculture, and manufacturing, which accounted for 71% of the loan portfolio. Meanwhile, agent banking saw a remarkable 42.6% increase in the number of agents, totaling 120,324, facilitating greater financial inclusion, particularly in rural areas. This translated to substantial rises in transactions—cash deposits increased by 27.6% to TZS 26,485.9 billion, and withdrawals rose by 32% to TZS 14,659.4 billion—demonstrating a growing engagement with formal financial services across Tanzania.

  1. Bank Deposits:
    • The total deposits mobilized by banks increased by 17.7%, reaching TZS 35,544.2 billion. This growth was attributed to efforts by banks and financial institutions to introduce innovative financial products and enhance public confidence in the banking sector.
    • Dar es Salaam Zone held the largest share of deposits at 61.7% (TZS 21,706.8 billion), reflecting its central role as an economic hub.
    • Other zones, such as the Northern Zone, saw a significant increase in deposits, reaching TZS 4,327.2 billion, which accounted for 12.5% of total deposits​.
  2. Bank Loans:
    • The total loans extended by banks grew by 21.4% to reach TZS 32,089.5 billion. The Bank of Tanzania's policies to support private sector credit growth and financial inclusion contributed to this increase.
    • Lending was largely directed toward personal loans, trade, agriculture, and manufacturing, which collectively comprised 71% of the total loan portfolio​.
  3. Agent Banking Operations:
    • The number of bank agents rose by 42.6% to 120,324 agents, enhancing financial accessibility, especially in rural areas.
    • Transactions via agent banking also grew, with cash deposit transactions increasing by 12% to 91.4 million transactions, and cash withdrawals rising by 14.5% to 52.6 million transactions.
    • The value of cash deposits and withdrawals reached TZS 26,485.9 billion and TZS 14,659.4 billion respectively, representing a 27.6% and 32% increase from the previous year​.

The financial sector data for Tanzania in 2023/24 with important insights into the country’s economic and financial landscape:

  1. Increased Financial Inclusion:
    • The rise in agent banking operations and the significant increase in the number of agents (42.6%) reflect ongoing efforts to make financial services more accessible, especially in underserved and rural areas. The growth in agent transactions, with cash deposits and withdrawals up by 27.6% and 32% respectively, suggests that more Tanzanians are engaging with formal financial services, which supports the goal of financial inclusion.
  2. Economic Confidence and Trust in Banking:
    • The increase in bank deposits by 17.7% (TZS 35,544.2 billion) indicates growing public confidence in the banking system. This growth could result from successful financial literacy programs, greater access to banks, and economic stability that encourages people to save within formal institutions. Dar es Salaam’s dominance in deposits (61.7%) highlights its role as the financial center of the country, though other regions, such as the Northern Zone, are also showing notable growth.
  3. Support for Private Sector Growth:
    • The expansion in bank loans by 21.4% (TZS 32,089.5 billion) demonstrates that credit is becoming more accessible to individuals and businesses. Lending to sectors like trade, agriculture, and manufacturing suggests banks are playing an active role in supporting Tanzania’s economic sectors, fostering job creation, productivity, and economic diversification.
  4. Agent Banking as a Bridge to Formal Finance:
    • The growth in agent banking shows that Tanzanians are increasingly using local agents as an entry point into the financial system, bridging the gap between traditional banking and underserved populations. This trend is essential for financial inclusion in regions where banks may not have a direct presence.
  5. Regional Economic Disparities:
    • Dar es Salaam’s significant share of deposits highlights economic disparities, as it maintains its position as the financial hub. However, the Northern Zone’s increase in deposits signals potential economic growth in other areas, suggesting that financial activity is spreading to regions outside the capital.
  6. Policy Success in Expanding Financial Services:
    • The overall growth in deposits, loans, and agent banking transactions reflects the effectiveness of the Bank of Tanzania’s policies aimed at financial inclusion and private sector support. These developments are critical for Tanzania’s broader economic goals, as access to credit and banking services can stimulate investment, consumption, and economic resilience.
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Tanzania's Local Government Authorities Revenue 23/24

Revenue collections for the fiscal year 2023/24

In the fiscal year 2023/24, Tanzania's Local Government Authorities (LGAs) achieved a remarkable revenue collection of TZS 1,132.1 billion, reaching 94.8% of their target. This performance reflects significant economic activity across different zones, with Dar es Salaam leading with TZS 277.3 billion, accounting for 24.5% of the total revenue. The Lake Zone followed closely, contributing TZS 237.0 billion (20.9%), driven by its robust agricultural and trading sectors. Meanwhile, the Southern Highlands, Northern, and South Eastern Zones collected TZS 182.3 billion (16.1%), TZS 166.9 billion (14.7%), and TZS 165.9 billion (14.7%) respectively, underscoring their reliance on agricultural activities. The Central Zone, however, lagged with only TZS 103.0 billion (9.1%), suggesting a need for economic diversification. The successful implementation of Point-of-Sale (POS) devices and online auctioning through the Tanzania Mercantile Exchange has notably enhanced revenue collection efficiency, pointing to the importance of modern collection strategies and public compliance initiatives in bolstering local government revenues.

  1. Total Revenue Collection: The LGAs collected a total of TZS 1,132.1 billion, achieving 94.8% of the target for the year.
  2. Zone-Wise Breakdown:
    • Dar es Salaam Zone:
      • Collection: TZS 277.3 billion
      • Share of Total LGA Revenue: 24.5%
      • Dar es Salaam contributed the largest share, highlighting its role as a key economic hub.
    • Lake Zone:
      • Collection: TZS 237.0 billion
      • Share of Total LGA Revenue: 20.9%
      • Significant revenue from the Lake Zone reflects its strong economic activities, including agriculture and trade.
    • Southern Highlands Zone:
      • Collection: TZS 182.3 billion
      • Share of Total LGA Revenue: 16.1%
      • This region’s contribution is supported by agricultural activities and improved collection systems.
    • Northern Zone:
      • Collection: TZS 166.9 billion
      • Share of Total LGA Revenue: 14.7%
      • The Northern Zone’s revenue was enhanced by tourism and agricultural trading.
    • South Eastern Zone:
      • Collection: TZS 165.9 billion
      • Share of Total LGA Revenue: 14.7%
      • Revenue in this zone benefited from the trade of food and cash crops and increased POS device usage.
    • Central Zone:
      • Collection: TZS 103.0 billion
      • Share of Total LGA Revenue: 9.1%
      • The Central Zone contributed the smallest share, possibly due to its smaller economic base relative to other zones.
  3. Key Drivers:
    • The use of Point-of-Sale (POS) devices improved efficiency in tax collection.
    • Trading activities, especially in food and cash crops, were boosted by favorable harvests.
    • Online auctions of certain cash crops through the Tanzania Mercantile Exchange also contributed to the revenue increase.

The local government revenue for Tanzania’s fiscal year 2023/24 with key insights about regional economic dynamics and the impact of collection strategies:

  1. Economic Disparity Across Zones:
    • Dar es Salaam's dominant contribution (24.5%) underscores its status as Tanzania’s economic hub. This suggests a concentration of commercial activities, services, and higher-value businesses within the city compared to other regions.
    • Regions like the Lake Zone and Southern Highlands also show strong economic activity, likely due to agriculture and trade, contributing significantly to the local government revenue base. However, other zones such as the Central Zone contribute less, possibly indicating limited economic diversity or smaller commercial bases.
  2. Effectiveness of Enhanced Collection Systems:
    • The increased use of Point-of-Sale (POS) devices and online platforms for auctioning cash crops has enhanced revenue collection efficiency and compliance. This shows that investments in digital and streamlined collection systems can substantially improve tax performance, even in regions where traditional collection might be challenging.
  3. Dependence on Agriculture and Trade:
    • Revenue collection in the Lake, Southern Highlands, and South Eastern zones highlights a reliance on agriculture as a critical source of income for local governments. This reliance suggests that agricultural productivity and favorable crop trading conditions have a direct impact on regional revenue outcomes.
  4. Potential for Further Diversification:
    • The substantial revenue contributions from economically active zones like Dar es Salaam and the Lake Zone point to opportunities for other regions to develop their commercial sectors. If similar collection practices and economic incentives were introduced more broadly, other zones could see growth in their contributions.
  5. Strategic Role of Public Awareness and Compliance:
    • The collection rates achieved (94.8% of the target) indicate that public awareness campaigns and government efforts to improve compliance are yielding positive results. Enhanced taxpayer education and streamlined processes appear to foster greater adherence to tax obligations, benefiting local revenue streams.

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In the fiscal year 2023/24, Tanzania's tax revenue performance

In the fiscal year 2023/24, Tanzania's tax revenue performance was notably strong, reaching TZS 27,138.4 billion, or 97.5% of the budgeted target, largely due to enhanced use of electronic fiscal devices (EFDs) and improved tax compliance stemming from ongoing public awareness campaigns. The Dar es Salaam Zone emerged as the dominant contributor, accounting for 89% of total tax revenue with TZS 24,145.7 billion, highlighting the region's significance as Tanzania's economic hub. In contrast, other zones such as the Northern Zone, Lake Zone, and Southern Highlands contributed significantly less, at 5.7%, 1.8%, and 1.4% respectively. Tax revenue sources showed that local goods and services generated TZS 11,988.5 billion (44.2% of total revenue), while taxes on imports made up TZS 10,518.5 billion (38.8%). Direct taxes represented a smaller share at TZS 4,631.3 billion (17.1%), indicating potential for growth in this area. This fiscal landscape underscores the need for Tanzania to diversify its revenue streams and address regional disparities to ensure sustainable economic growth.

Tax Revenue by Zone:

  • Dar es Salaam Zone: Contributed the highest share, accounting for 89% of total tax revenue, with a collection of TZS 24,145.7 billion.
  • Other Zones: The Lake Zone collected TZS 495.6 billion (1.8% of total), the Northern Zone TZS 1,550.8 billion (5.7%), and the Southern Highlands Zone TZS 385.0 billion (1.4%).

Tax Revenue by Category:

  • Taxes on Local Goods and Services: Reached TZS 11,988.5 billion, representing 44.2% of the total revenue.
  • Taxes on Imports: Totaled TZS 10,518.5 billion, making up 38.8% of revenue.
  • Direct Tax: Accounted for TZS 4,631.3 billion, or 17.1% of total tax revenue.

Tanzania's tax revenue performance for the fiscal year 2023/24:

  1. Overall Tax Performance: Tanzania's tax revenue closely aligned with government targets, reaching 97.5% of the budgeted target. This strong performance suggests that the government’s tax collection initiatives, such as the increased use of Electronic Fiscal Devices (EFDs) and efforts to improve tax compliance, have been effective. Public awareness efforts about tax obligations have likely played a role in encouraging compliance and maintaining steady revenue collection.
  2. Regional Disparities in Tax Collection:
    • The Dar es Salaam Zone significantly outperformed other regions, contributing 89% of total tax revenue (TZS 24,145.7 billion). This dominance likely reflects Dar es Salaam’s economic activity, being Tanzania's primary commercial hub.
    • Other regions contributed significantly less: the Northern Zone (5.7%), the Lake Zone (1.8%), and the Southern Highlands Zone (1.4%). These numbers indicate a heavy reliance on Dar es Salaam for tax revenue and may highlight the economic disparity among regions.
  3. Tax Revenue by Category:
    • Taxes on Local Goods and Services: Constituted the largest portion, 44.2% of total tax revenue (TZS 11,988.5 billion), indicating a strong domestic consumption base contributing to tax revenue.
    • Taxes on Imports: Accounted for 38.8% (TZS 10,518.5 billion), showing the importance of imports in Tanzania’s tax revenue structure. This dependency also suggests that international trade remains a significant revenue stream for the government.
    • Direct Tax: Made up 17.1% of total tax revenue (TZS 4,631.3 billion), which likely includes income and corporate taxes. This lower share compared to other categories may indicate room for improvement in direct tax collection, potentially through further initiatives to enhance individual and corporate tax compliance.

Implications: The data reflects the government’s reliance on a limited number of revenue sources and zones. The heavy dependency on Dar es Salaam and taxes from imports and consumption suggests that diversifying the tax base across regions and enhancing direct tax collections could strengthen future revenue resilience.

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Tanzania's sectoral performance for 2023/24

Tanzania's sectoral performance for the 2023/24 fiscal year reveals a mixed economic landscape with notable growth across various industries. The agricultural sector exhibited resilience, with food production increasing to 22.8 million tonnes, driven primarily by maize and rice, while cash crop procurement rose, exemplified by a 21% increase in cashew nuts. The manufacturing industry thrived, reporting a remarkable 35.3% surge in product value to TZS 18,622.9 billion, fueled by stable energy supplies and strong domestic demand. In contrast, the mining sector faced challenges, with a 2% decline in overall mineral recovery, although gold prices remained favorable. Tourism showed significant recovery, with visitor numbers climbing by 33.9% to 2.77 million, generating TZS 631.1 billion in revenue. Furthermore, electricity generation rose by 14.7% to 10,801.9 GWh, supported by new hydroelectric projects, while forestry and fishing saw increases in product values, despite sustainability concerns in the fishing industry. Overall, these figures highlight both growth opportunities and challenges that require strategic responses to ensure sustainable economic development in Tanzania.

  1. Agriculture:
    • Food Production: Increased to 22.8 million tonnes in 2023/24 from 20.4 million tonnes in the previous year. Major contributors were maize (44.2% of total food production) and rice (13.4%).
    • Cash Crops: The volume of major cash crops procured rose, except for coffee and tea. For example, cashew nuts reached 244,797 tonnes, while cotton increased to 282,509.7 tonnes.
  2. Manufacturing:
    • The value of selected manufactured products increased by 35.3%, reaching TZS 18,622.9 billion. Key products included beverages, cement, steel, and textiles, driven by stable power supply and strong domestic demand.
  3. Mining:
    • The value of mineral recovery in Tanzania decreased by 2%, totaling USD 3,190.6 billion in 2023/24, primarily due to a drop in coal demand from European markets. Despite this, the value of gold—which remains the largest contributor to mining revenue—increased due to higher global market prices. The Lake Zone led with 61.6% of total mineral value, followed by the Southern Highlands with 14.9%. Minerals traded in market centers rose by 8.3% to TZS 2,454.5 billion, driven largely by a recovery in gold output and its strong market price, which accounted for 95% of total trade value in these centers.
  4. Tourism:
    • Visitor numbers and revenue from national parks saw significant growth, with visitors rising by 33.9% to 2,773,232 and earnings increasing by 37.7% to TZS 631.1 billion. Most zones reported growth in visitor numbers and park revenue, with the Northern Zone accounting for the largest shares at 68.2% of visitors and 62.3% of total earnings. This growth reflects successful tourism promotion efforts and increasing interest in Tanzania’s natural attractions.
  5. Energy:
    • Electricity generation increased by 14.7%, reaching 10,801.9 GWh in 2023/24, largely due to new power generation from the Julius Nyerere and Rusumo hydro plants. Improved infrastructure and rising demand from rural electrification projects further supported this growth. Higher water levels at key dams (New Pangani Falls, Nyumba ya Mungu, and Kihansi) and expanded capacity at Kinyerezi I extension and other thermal plants (Nyakato and Kigoma) contributed to the improved power output.
  6. Forestry and Fishing:
    • Forestry: The value of forest products increased by 21.1% to TZS 1,157.1 billion, largely from high demand in processing industries and improved management.
    • Fishing: The value of fish sold in markets rose by 17% to TZS 655.6 billion, though the volume declined by 9.1% due to overfishing in Lake Victoria and Lake Tanganyika.

The sectoral performance data for Tanzania in 2023/24 reflects a mixed economic landscape characterized by growth with key industries while also highlighting challenges in others.

  1. Agricultural Resilience:

The increase in food production to 22.8 million tonnes from 20.4 million tonnes indicates resilience in the agricultural sector. Major crops like maize and rice continue to dominate, showcasing the sector's capacity to meet food demands and enhance food security. The rise in cash crops, particularly cashew nuts and cotton, signals opportunities for export growth and rural income generation, despite the setbacks in coffee and tea production.

  1. Manufacturing Growth:

A substantial 35.3% increase in the value of manufactured products, reaching TZS 18,622.9 billion, reflects a robust manufacturing sector bolstered by stable energy supplies and domestic demand. This growth suggests that the government’s efforts to enhance infrastructure and energy availability are paying off, enabling manufacturers to expand and diversify their production.

  1. Mining Sector Challenges:

The 2% decline in mineral recovery value, especially in coal, alongside increased gold value due to favorable market prices, illustrates the volatility and dependency on global demand in the mining sector. The continued dominance of gold as a revenue driver shows its critical role in the economy, yet the decline in coal highlights the need for diversification and adaptation to market shifts, especially considering the importance of the Lake Zone in mineral production.

  1. Tourism Revival:

The significant growth in tourism, with visitor numbers up 33.9% and revenue increasing by 37.7%, indicates a successful recovery and revitalization of the sector post-pandemic. The Northern Zone's dominance in visitor numbers and earnings showcases its appeal and importance as a key tourist destination, suggesting that ongoing promotional efforts and investments in the tourism sector are effective.

  1. Energy Sector Expansion:

A 14.7% rise in electricity generation to 10,801.9 GWh demonstrates improvements in the energy sector, primarily driven by new hydroelectric projects and enhanced infrastructure. This growth is crucial for supporting other sectors of the economy, especially manufacturing and agriculture, and indicates the government's commitment to increasing energy capacity, which is essential for sustainable development.

  1. Forestry and Fishing Developments:

The 21.1% increase in the value of forest products and the 17% rise in the value of fish sold reflect growing industries with significant contributions to local economies. However, the decline in fishing volume due to overfishing raises sustainability concerns that need to be addressed to ensure long-term viability. Improved management practices in forestry highlight the potential for growth in this sector, but it also underscores the importance of balancing economic activity with environmental sustainability.

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Tanzania’s Tax Revenue Surge in "1996–2024"

"1996–2024: Tanzania’s Tax Revenue Surge Reflects Decades of Economic Growth and Improved Compliance"

Over the past 27 years, Tanzania’s tax revenue has experienced significant growth, reflecting economic expansion and improvements in tax administration. From 1996/97 to 2023/24, revenue from key taxes such as Pay As You Earn (PAYE) increased by 8,558%, rising from 38.4 billion TShs to 3,320.6 billion TShs. Corporation Tax surged 6,433%, reaching 3,574.3 billion TShs. Value-Added Tax (VAT) on domestic goods and imports also saw notable rises, up by 5,635% and 6,726%, respectively, fueled by higher consumption and better compliance. These trends underscore Tanzania's progress in expanding its tax base and enhancing collection efficiency across sectors.

The tax revenue data over the years shows several key insights into Tanzania's economic trajectory and tax system efficiency. These figures reveal for each major category, showing how tax revenue trends reflect economic and policy developments:

1. P.A.Y.E. (Pay As You Earn)

  • 1996/97: 38,357.8 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 3,320,646.9 million TShs
  • Growth: ~8,558% over 27 years, with an average annual increase of 20%.
  • Insight: The high growth in PAYE indicates increased formal employment and income levels, likely due to economic expansion and higher workforce participation. The tax base grew as more people entered the formal economy, and incomes rose, raising PAYE collections dramatically. This can be attributed to expanding sectors like finance, telecommunications, and public sector employment.

2. Corporation Tax

  • 1996/97: 54,689.7 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 3,574,291.1 million TShs
  • Growth: ~6,433%, with an average annual increase of 18%.
  • Insight: Corporation tax growth shows a maturing business environment and expanding corporate sector profits. This is likely due to favorable economic policies and increased private investment, especially in industries such as mining, manufacturing, and financial services. The data also indicates fluctuations, with major jumps in revenue during certain years (e.g., 2015/16, 2021/22), which could reflect economic booms, reforms, or one-time revenue collections.

3. Individual Income Tax

  • 1996/97: 9,117.9 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 284,795.6 million TShs
  • Growth: ~3,023%, averaging 16% per year.
  • Insight: Increased tax revenue from individuals suggests a growing number of self-employed professionals and possibly enhanced tax compliance efforts. As Tanzania’s informal economy starts transitioning into formal setups, more individuals are paying taxes directly. This growth mirrors efforts to formalize various occupations and improve income reporting.

4. Other Income Taxes

  • 1996/97: 23,442.3 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 2,337,045.5 million TShs
  • Growth: ~9,870%, with an average annual growth rate of 19%.
  • Insight: The increase in "Other Income Taxes" points to a broader tax net, capturing income from investments, dividends, and non-salary sources. It reflects an effort by the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) to diversify revenue sources beyond traditional income streams, possibly including capital gains, interest income, and rental income.

5. Domestic Excise Duty

  • 1996/97: 61,923.3 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 1,974,229.0 million TShs
  • Growth: ~3,088%, with an average annual increase of 15%.
  • Insight: Excise duty growth highlights an increase in consumption of excisable goods such as alcohol, tobacco, and fuel. The steady rise reflects both population growth and higher demand for such goods as living standards rise. Increased excise rates on high-demand goods could also contribute to the revenue increases seen in recent years.

6. Domestic VAT

  • 1996/97: 67,053.2 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 3,845,345.9 million TShs
  • Growth: ~5,635%, with an average annual growth rate of 20%.
  • Insight: This large increase in VAT collections reflects higher consumption and enhanced enforcement. As Tanzania's economy grew, so did the production and purchase of VAT-liable goods and services. Growth in retail, hospitality, and manufacturing contributed significantly. TRA’s improvements in tax administration and use of digital systems for VAT compliance also helped capture more revenue.

7. Import Duty

  • 1996/97: 77,910.5 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 1,845,087.5 million TShs
  • Growth: ~2,268%, with an average annual increase of 13%.
  • Insight: The rising import duty revenue indicates increased import volumes, particularly of consumer goods, machinery, and raw materials for industries. Tanzania’s reliance on imports for development projects, consumer demand, and industrialization contributed to this steady increase.

8. Excise Duty on Imports

  • 1996/97: 29,760.1 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 1,533,699.0 million TShs
  • Growth: ~5,053%, averaging 17% per year.
  • Insight: The significant increase in import excise duties suggests both an increase in high-demand, excise-liable imports and higher excise rates on these items. It reflects Tanzania's consumption pattern shift toward imported luxury items and vehicles, among others.

9. VAT on Import

  • 1996/97: 54,909.4 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 3,748,862.6 million TShs
  • Growth: ~6,726%, with an average annual growth rate of 18%.
  • Insight: VAT on imports grew strongly due to increasing import values and effective tax collection at entry points. Enhanced controls at borders and automation within TRA allowed for higher compliance and capture of VAT revenue.

Overall Interpretation

  • Economic Growth: The rapid growth across tax categories signifies expanding economic activities, higher income levels, and greater consumption, all leading to a broader tax base.
  • Improved Compliance: Higher revenue figures in later years suggest TRA’s improvements in tax compliance, including stricter enforcement, digitization of tax processes, and taxpayer education.
  • Diversified Revenue Base: The increase across various tax types indicates Tanzania's successful efforts to diversify its tax base, reducing reliance on any single revenue stream and making the tax system more resilient to economic shocks.

The substantial growth across all tax categories, with PAYE, Corporation Tax, and VAT revenues leading the increase from 1996/97 to 2023/24:

Tax Item1996/97 (Million TShs)2023/24 (Million TShs)Total Growth (%)Average Annual Growth Rate (%)
P.A.Y.E.38,357.83,320,646.98,558%20%
Corporation Tax54,689.73,574,291.16,433%18%
Individual Income Tax9,117.9284,795.63,023%16%
Other Income Taxes23,442.32,337,045.59,870%19%
Domestic Excise Duty61,923.31,974,229.03,088%15%
Domestic VAT67,053.23,845,345.95,635%20%
Import Duty77,910.51,845,087.52,268%13%
Excise Duty on Imports29,760.11,533,699.05,053%17%
VAT on Imports54,909.43,748,862.66,726%18%

The tax revenue over the years shows several key insights into Tanzania's economic trajectory and tax system efficiency

1. P.A.Y.E. (Pay As You Earn)

  • 1996/97: 38,357.8 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 3,320,646.9 million TShs
  • Growth: ~8,558% over 27 years, with an average annual increase of 20%.
  • Insight: The high growth in PAYE indicates increased formal employment and income levels, likely due to economic expansion and higher workforce participation. The tax base grew as more people entered the formal economy, and incomes rose, raising PAYE collections dramatically. This can be attributed to expanding sectors like finance, telecommunications, and public sector employment.

2. Corporation Tax

  • 1996/97: 54,689.7 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 3,574,291.1 million TShs
  • Growth: ~6,433%, with an average annual increase of 18%.
  • Insight: Corporation tax growth shows a maturing business environment and expanding corporate sector profits. This is likely due to favorable economic policies and increased private investment, especially in industries such as mining, manufacturing, and financial services. The data also indicates fluctuations, with major jumps in revenue during certain years (e.g., 2015/16, 2021/22), which could reflect economic booms, reforms, or one-time revenue collections.

3. Individual Income Tax

  • 1996/97: 9,117.9 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 284,795.6 million TShs
  • Growth: ~3,023%, averaging 16% per year.
  • Insight: Increased tax revenue from individuals suggests a growing number of self-employed professionals and possibly enhanced tax compliance efforts. As Tanzania’s informal economy starts transitioning into formal setups, more individuals are paying taxes directly. This growth mirrors efforts to formalize various occupations and improve income reporting.

4. Other Income Taxes

  • 1996/97: 23,442.3 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 2,337,045.5 million TShs
  • Growth: ~9,870%, with an average annual growth rate of 19%.
  • Insight: The increase in "Other Income Taxes" points to a broader tax net, capturing income from investments, dividends, and non-salary sources. It reflects an effort by the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) to diversify revenue sources beyond traditional income streams, possibly including capital gains, interest income, and rental income.

5. Domestic Excise Duty

  • 1996/97: 61,923.3 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 1,974,229.0 million TShs
  • Growth: ~3,088%, with an average annual increase of 15%.
  • Insight: Excise duty growth highlights an increase in consumption of excisable goods such as alcohol, tobacco, and fuel. The steady rise reflects both population growth and higher demand for such goods as living standards rise. Increased excise rates on high-demand goods could also contribute to the revenue increases seen in recent years.

6. Domestic VAT

  • 1996/97: 67,053.2 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 3,845,345.9 million TShs
  • Growth: ~5,635%, with an average annual growth rate of 20%.
  • Insight: This large increase in VAT collections reflects higher consumption and enhanced enforcement. As Tanzania's economy grew, so did the production and purchase of VAT-liable goods and services. Growth in retail, hospitality, and manufacturing contributed significantly. TRA’s improvements in tax administration and use of digital systems for VAT compliance also helped capture more revenue.

7. Import Duty

  • 1996/97: 77,910.5 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 1,845,087.5 million TShs
  • Growth: ~2,268%, with an average annual increase of 13%.
  • Insight: The rising import duty revenue indicates increased import volumes, particularly of consumer goods, machinery, and raw materials for industries. Tanzania’s reliance on imports for development projects, consumer demand, and industrialization contributed to this steady increase.

8. Excise Duty on Imports

  • 1996/97: 29,760.1 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 1,533,699.0 million TShs
  • Growth: ~5,053%, averaging 17% per year.
  • Insight: The significant increase in import excise duties suggests both an increase in high-demand, excise-liable imports and higher excise rates on these items. It reflects Tanzania's consumption pattern shift toward imported luxury items and vehicles, among others.

9. VAT on Import

  • 1996/97: 54,909.4 million TShs
  • 2023/24: 3,748,862.6 million TShs
  • Growth: ~6,726%, with an average annual growth rate of 18%.
  • Insight: VAT on imports grew strongly due to increasing import values and effective tax collection at entry points. Enhanced controls at borders and automation within TRA allowed for higher compliance and capture of VAT revenue.

Overall Interpretation

  • Economic Growth: The rapid growth across tax categories signifies expanding economic activities, higher income levels, and greater consumption, all leading to a broader tax base.
  • Improved Compliance: Higher revenue figures in later years suggest TRA’s improvements in tax compliance, including stricter enforcement, digitization of tax processes, and taxpayer education.
  • Diversified Revenue Base: The increase across various tax types indicates Tanzania's successful efforts to diversify its tax base, reducing reliance on any single revenue stream and making the tax system more resilient to economic shocks.

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Tanzania's Revenue Trends (July-September)
  1. Overall Collection Performance:
    • Total gross revenue collections, including domestic revenue, customs and excise, and large taxpayers, amounted to 7,638,538.8 million TShs for the quarter.
    • After adding treasury vouchers and subtracting refunds, the net revenue totaled 7,108,260.2 million TShs.
  2. Departmental Contributions:
    • Customs and excise contributed the highest gross revenue (about 2,938,731.4 million TShs), followed closely by large taxpayers at 2,955,231.6 million TShs.
    • Domestic revenue accounted for 1,744,575.8 million TShs, reflecting steady monthly growth across July, August, and September.
  3. Refunds and Adjustments:
    • Refunds, including VAT and income tax refunds, amounted to 548,160.0 million TShs, highlighting significant returns to businesses or overpaid taxes.
    • Income tax refunds specifically contributed 8,397.1 million TShs to the total adjustments, lowering the net revenue.
  4. Direct and Indirect Tax Contributions:
    • Direct taxes collected within domestic regions were highest in MTD (around 286,083.6 million TShs), followed by Ilala and Kinondoni, indicating the economic density and tax contributions from these areas.
    • Indirect tax collections also reflected a significant contribution from MTD at 171,672.5 million TShs, with Ilala and Kinondoni contributing considerable amounts as well.
  5. Regional Performance Highlights:
    • The MTD, Ilala, and Kinondoni regions consistently performed well in both direct and indirect tax collections, reflecting their substantial economic activities.
    • Other regions like Arusha, Dodoma, and Mwanza also made notable contributions, indicating growth and economic activity beyond major urban centers.
  6. Specific Tax Items:
    • PAYE (Pay-As-You-Earn) led within direct tax items, amounting to 418,111.9 million TShs, showcasing its importance as a revenue stream from individual income.
    • Other direct taxes like gaming tax (51,556.5 million TShs) and rental tax (29,078.8 million TShs) show diversified tax contributions from non-traditional sources.
    • The newly implemented digital tax has yet to generate revenue, as indicated by a zero entry, suggesting either delayed enforcement or pending tax processing.

The top five regions in Tanzania for high revenues from direct taxes, indirect taxes, and customs duties. 

RankRegionDirect Tax Revenue (TZS)Indirect Tax Revenue (TZS)Customs Revenue (TZS)
1Dar es SalaamHighHighHigh
2MwanzaMediumHighMedium
3ArushaMediumMediumMedium
4DodomaMediumMediumLow
5MbeyaLowMediumLow

Notes:

  • Direct Taxes typically include corporate taxes, personal income taxes, etc.
  • Indirect Taxes encompass value-added tax (VAT), excise duties, etc.
  • Customs Revenue refers to taxes levied on goods imported into the country.

Explanation:

  • Dar es Salaam is the economic hub of Tanzania, contributing significantly across all tax categories due to its high concentration of businesses and trade activities.
  • Mwanza has a strong indirect tax base due to trade activities, especially around Lake Victoria.
  • Arusha and Dodoma serve as regional centers with varying contributions to tax revenues.
  • Mbeya is generally lower in terms of direct and customs revenue but maintains some level of indirect tax contribution.

The hypothetical revenue data and analysis provide insights into the performance of Tanzania's tax collection system across three months—July, August, and September—while also hinting at regional variations that can be examined further.

  1. Growth in Revenue:
    • The total revenue increased from TZS 450 billion in July to TZS 490 billion in August (an increase of 8.89%) and further to TZS 500 billion in September (an increase of 2.04%). This indicates a robust growth trend initially, which began to slow down in September.
  2. Direct Tax Revenue:
    • Direct tax revenue increased steadily from TZS 150 billion to TZS 170 billion over the three months, with growth rates of 6.67% from July to August and 6.25% from August to September. This consistent increase suggests improved tax compliance and possibly broader tax bases.
  3. Indirect Tax Revenue:
    • Indirect tax revenue showed a positive trend as well, growing from TZS 200 billion to TZS 220 billion, but with a decreasing growth rate (from 5.00% to 4.76%). This indicates that while the revenue collection was effective, it might not be as dynamic as direct taxes.
  4. Customs Revenue:
    • Customs revenue had a spike from TZS 100 billion in July to TZS 120 billion in August (a significant increase of 20%). However, it dropped to TZS 110 billion in September, showing a negative change of -8.33%. This volatility suggests that customs revenue may be more sensitive to trade flows, global economic conditions, and policy changes.

Regional Variations in Revenue

Understanding regional variations is crucial for targeted fiscal policy and revenue generation strategies

  1. Economic Activity:
    • Regions with higher economic activities, such as Dar es Salaam, Arusha, and Mwanza, typically generate higher direct and indirect tax revenues. For instance, Dar es Salaam is the commercial hub, likely leading in direct tax revenues due to a higher concentration of businesses.
  2. Customs Revenue Variations:
    • Regions with significant ports or borders, such as Tanga and Mtwara, are likely to contribute more to customs revenues. Any fluctuations in trade activities, import/export regulations, or infrastructure issues (e.g., port congestion) could significantly impact customs revenue in these areas.
  3. Agricultural vs. Industrial Regions:
    • Regions like Mbeya and Dodoma, primarily agricultural, may have lower indirect and direct tax revenues compared to industrial regions. However, agricultural taxes can be variable based on crop seasons and market prices.
  4. Social and Economic Factors:
    • Regions may differ in compliance rates due to factors such as local governance, taxpayer education, and economic stability. For example, regions experiencing economic challenges may struggle with tax collection, leading to lower revenues.
  5. Government Initiatives:
    • Regional variations may also be affected by government initiatives, such as incentives for certain industries or sectors. If the government focuses on boosting revenue in underperforming regions, this could shift revenue patterns over time.

Conclusion

The overall revenue collection in Tanzania is on an upward trend, the variations in revenue sources highlight the importance of region-specific economic activities and challenges. Policymakers should consider these dynamics to enhance revenue generation strategies, improve tax compliance, and ensure equitable economic development across regions.

This analysis emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of revenue trends and regional performance to adapt fiscal policies that can effectively respond to the unique circumstances of each region. If actual figures or specific regional data are available, I can assist in providing a more detailed and precise analysis.

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In the fiscal year 2023/24, Tanzania’s trade

Activities across zones

In the fiscal year 2023/24, Tanzania's trade landscape, particularly in cross-border activities, displayed notable shifts across various regions. The overall trade surplus with neighboring countries decreased by 23.1%, settling at TZS 4,484.3 billion, driven by reduced exports in key sectors such as minerals and agricultural products, along with rising imports of manufactured goods. The Lake Zone emerged as the largest contributor to exports, totaling TZS 4,699.7 billion but marking a decline of 6.6% from the previous year, while the Southern Highlands saw a significant growth in agricultural exports, increasing by 17.4% to TZS 4,393.7 billion. Conversely, the Northern Zone faced a trade deficit of TZS 466.9 billion due to surging imports, highlighting a growing dependency on external goods. These dynamics underscore both the challenges and opportunities in Tanzania’s trade framework, emphasizing the need for policy interventions to bolster local production and enhance competitiveness in global markets.

  1. Cross-Border Trade Surplus:
    • The overall trade surplus with neighboring countries narrowed by 23.1%, totaling TZS 4,484.3 billion. This decline was due to reduced exports, notably in minerals, fertilizers, live cattle, fish, and other consumables, coupled with increased imports of manufactured goods​.
  2. Exports by Zone:
    • Lake Zone:
      • Export value: TZS 4,699.7 billion, a decrease of 6.6% from the previous year.
      • Lake Zone still accounted for the largest share of exports at 44.6% of total cross-border exports.
    • Southern Highlands:
      • Export value: TZS 4,393.7 billion, an increase of 17.4% year-over-year, reflecting growth in agricultural exports.
    • Northern Zone:
      • Export value: TZS 1,355.1 billion, showing a decrease of 7.2% from the prior year.
    • South Eastern Zone:
      • Export value was much smaller at TZS 96.8 billion, yet it marked a significant increase, suggesting emerging trade activities in this region​.
  3. Imports by Zone:
    • Lake Zone: Recorded TZS 1,037.3 billion in imports, a slight decrease of 0.4%, accounting for 17.1% of the total import share.
    • Southern Highlands: Imported goods valued at TZS 3,200.4 billion, an increase of 55.5%, accounting for 52.8% of the total imports, driven mainly by manufactured goods.
    • Northern Zone: Imports rose to TZS 1,822.1 billion, a 38.2% increase, reflecting higher demand for goods like plastics, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals​(2024110115114536).
  4. Trade Balance by Zone:
    • Lake Zone: Despite a reduction, it maintained a strong trade surplus of TZS 3,662.4 billion.
    • Southern Highlands: Had a surplus of TZS 1,193.3 billion, though it decreased by 29.1% compared to the previous year.
    • Northern Zone: Notably recorded a trade deficit of TZS 466.9 billion due to higher imports of manufactured goods.
    • South Eastern Zone: Saw a positive trade balance of TZS 95.5 billion, benefiting from growth in exports​.

Tanzania’s fiscal year 2023/24 provides insights into regional economic trends, challenges, and opportunities:

  1. Strong Export Dependency on Agriculture:
    • Regions like the Lake Zone and Southern Highlands have robust exports, largely driven by agriculture, which accounted for significant shares of the country’s exports. This reliance on agricultural exports shows the importance of the agricultural sector to Tanzania’s trade balance but also highlights vulnerability to fluctuations in global demand or agricultural productivity.
  2. Increasing Import Dependency:
    • The narrowing trade surplus and growth in imports, particularly in the Northern Zone, indicate rising domestic demand for manufactured goods like machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. This trend suggests that as Tanzania’s economy grows, there is an increasing need for imported industrial and consumer goods, possibly due to limited domestic production capacity for these items.
  3. Regional Trade Imbalances:
    • The Lake Zone and Southern Highlands maintain trade surpluses, indicating these areas are economic strongholds in export production. In contrast, the Northern Zone recorded a trade deficit, driven by higher import needs. This imbalance points to a need for economic diversification in regions with trade deficits, as well as opportunities to boost local production to meet domestic demand and reduce import reliance.
  4. Emerging Trade Activity in South Eastern Zone:
    • The growth in exports and trade balance in the South Eastern Zone, although from a smaller base, suggests that this region is starting to gain traction in cross-border trade. This growth could reflect improvements in infrastructure or strategic efforts to diversify Tanzania’s export portfolio.
  5. Challenges with Export Competitiveness:
    • The overall reduction in exports, particularly in minerals and other commodities, indicates potential challenges in maintaining competitiveness or meeting international demand. This decrease could signal the need for investment in value-added processing to make Tanzania’s exports more competitive globally, beyond raw materials and basic agricultural products.
  6. Trade as an Economic Indicator:
    • The trade patterns reflect broader economic dynamics, such as the growth in consumption and industrial needs across regions, increased reliance on imports, and the potential for further industrialization. The demand for imports underscores Tanzania’s growing economy, while the dependency on specific zones for export revenue highlights areas for policy focus, such as regional economic development, infrastructure, and manufacturing incentives.
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Tanzania's GDP performance in 2023

Across different zones and GDP per capita

Tanzania's economic landscape in 2023 showcased robust growth, with the national GDP reaching TZS 188,788.1 billion, a significant increase from TZS 170,820 billion in 2022. This growth reflects a 10.5% rise, indicating resilience in various economic sectors despite global challenges.

Regionally, the Lake Zone emerged as the largest contributor, generating TZS 48,990.5 billion, which accounts for 25.9% of the national GDP. Following closely were the Dar es Salaam Zone and Northern Zone, contributing TZS 32,189.2 billion (17.1%) and TZS 32,484.9 billion (17.2%), respectively. Other zones, including the Southern Highlands, Central, and South Eastern, contributed TZS 29,859.8 billion (15.8%), TZS 25,521.6 billion (13.5%), and TZS 19,742.1 billion (10.5%), respectively, highlighting disparities in economic activity across the country.

In terms of GDP per capita, Dar es Salaam outpaced other regions significantly, recording TZS 5,743,367. The Northern Zone followed with TZS 3,612,424, and the Southern Highlands reached TZS 3,424,384. The national average stood at TZS 3,058,847, underscoring the economic concentration in urban areas while pointing to opportunities for development in less affluent regions. This distribution emphasizes the need for targeted investment and infrastructure improvements in areas with lower GDP per capita to foster inclusive growth and address regional economic disparities.

  1. Overall National GDP:
    • Total GDP for Tanzania Mainland reached TZS 188,788.1 billion in 2023, up from TZS 170,820 billion in 2022.
  2. Zonal GDP Contribution:
    • Lake Zone: Largest contributor with TZS 48,990.5 billion (25.9% of the national GDP).
    • Dar es Salaam Zone: TZS 32,189.2 billion (17.1%).
    • Northern Zone: TZS 32,484.9 billion (17.2%).
    • Southern Highlands Zone: TZS 29,859.8 billion (15.8%).
    • Central Zone: TZS 25,521.6 billion (13.5%).
    • South Eastern Zone: TZS 19,742.1 billion (10.5%).
  3. GDP per Capita:
    • Dar es Salaam recorded the highest GDP per capita at TZS 5,743,367.
    • Northern Zone (Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Manyara, Tanga) followed with TZS 3,612,424.
    • Southern Highlands Zone (Mbeya, Njombe, Iringa, etc.) reached TZS 3,424,384.
    • The national average GDP per capita was TZS 3,058,847.

Tanzania's GDP highlights several key points

  1. Regional Economic Disparities: Dar es Salaam’s high GDP per capita (TZS 5,743,367) compared to other regions shows a concentration of economic activities in the city. As Tanzania's commercial hub, Dar es Salaam benefits from strong financial, trade, manufacturing, and service sectors, which contrasts with more agriculturally dependent regions.
  2. Lake Zone’s Economic Significance: The Lake Zone, contributing the highest share of national GDP (25.9%), emphasizes the economic importance of agriculture, mining, and fishing, which are dominant in that region. It also highlights potential for growth in other sectors if there are investments in infrastructure and industry.
  3. Potential for Development in Southern Zones: The Southern Highlands and South Eastern zones, despite having large agricultural outputs and rich mineral resources, contribute less to GDP. This suggests untapped potential that could be leveraged with investment in infrastructure, energy, and processing industries to add value to raw products.
  4. National Economic Structure: The dominance of agriculture, trade, transport, and construction as GDP drivers reflects Tanzania's focus on essential industries. However, the high reliance on agriculture makes the economy vulnerable to climate and market fluctuations, underlining the need for economic diversification.
  5. Opportunities for Inclusive Growth: Regions with lower GDP per capita, like the Central and South Eastern zones, may benefit from targeted development initiatives, such as improved access to markets, financial services, and investment in education and skills development. This could promote more balanced growth across the country.
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