Tanzania’s investment landscape experienced remarkable growth between 2023 and 2024. The number of registered investment projects surged by 71%, from 526 projects in 2023 to 901 projects in 2024. This expansion was accompanied by a significant rise in committed capital investments, which grew by 62.8%, increasing from $5.72 billion in 2023 to $9.31 billion in 2024. In addition, employment opportunities linked to these investments rose sharply, with 212,293 jobs created in 2024, compared to 137,010 jobs in 2023—an increase of approximately 55%. This upward trend reflects strong investor confidence and supportive government policies, as shown by the rising number of permits and approvals issued: work permits grew by 40.8%, Certificates of Incentives by 71.3%, and land rights approvals by 22.2%. Despite a slight decrease in residence permits (-11.4%) and TRA-approved exemptions (-11.9%), the overall environment signals a robust and broad-based investment expansion in Tanzania.

Investment-Related Permits, Licenses, and Approvals: Tanzania 2023 vs 2024

1. Overall Growth in Investment Projects

• 2023: 526 projects
• 2024: 901 projects
• Increase: +375 projects
• Growth Rate: +71.3%

This 71% increase in investment projects explains why permit and approval activities also expanded.

2. Permits and Approvals Breakdown

3. Detailed Explanation

Immigration (Residence Permits)

• Decrease: From 5,540 (2023) to 4,908 (2024)
• Why decrease?
  • Possibly stricter immigration rules or a shift towards local employment (hence, fewer expatriate residence permits).

Labour Office (Work Permits)

• Increase: From 5,272 to 7,425 permits
• Reason:
  • Reflects more foreign professionals being hired due to investment project expansions.
  • +40.8% growth shows demand for skilled foreign workers.

TRA (Tax Exemptions Approved)

• Decrease: From 268 to 236 approvals
• Reason:
  • Possible tightening of exemption policies to protect tax revenues.
  • Shows slight decline of -11.9%.

NIDA (Legal Identity Cards/NIN)

• Increase: From 387 to 457 cards
• Meaning:
  • More legal identification activities linked to newly registered workers and businesses.
  • +18.1% increase.

TIC (Certificates of Incentives)

• Massive Increase: From 526 to 901 certificates
• Meaning:
  • Directly matches the 71% jump in investment projects.
  • Reflects strong government support through fiscal/tax incentives to investors.

Ministry of Lands (Derivative Rights)

• Increase: From 54 to 66 approvals
• Meaning:
  • More investors are acquiring land rights for their projects (factories, offices, farms, etc.).
  • +22.2% growth.

4. Other Major Impacts Related to the Growth

• Jobs: An additional 75,283 jobs created in 2024.
• Capital: An additional $3.59 billion invested.

Key Takeaways:

• Strong increases in permits for work, incentives, and land rights support the surge in new investments.
• Work permits (+40.8%) and Certificates of Incentives (+71.3%) are especially notable.
• Residence permits (-11.4%) and TRA exemptions (-11.9%) slightly declined, reflecting more selective approvals.
• Overall investment environment is expanding rapidly, leading to more capital, more projects, and more employment opportunities in Tanzania.

Trend on Tanzania’s Investment Growth (Based on Permits, Projects, Capital, and Jobs Data)

1. Strong Positive Growth Trend

• Projects increased by 71%.
• Capital investment increased by 62.8%.
• Jobs created increased by 55%.

This shows that investment is expanding strongly across all important dimensions:
more projects, more money coming in, and more jobs being created.

2. Administrative Efficiency and Policy Support

• Certificates of Incentives from TIC grew by 71.3%, exactly matching the project growth.
• This suggests that Tanzania's government (through TIC and other agencies) is working actively to:
  • Attract investors
  • Process approvals faster
  • Offer incentives to stimulate investment

Policy and administrative support are aligning well with investment growth needs.

3. Higher Demand for Labor (Local and Foreign)

• Work permits rose by 40.8%, indicating:
  • Higher demand for foreign technical experts
  • More foreign companies bringing specialists to Tanzania
• Meanwhile, local hiring is also rising as shown by the 212,293 new jobs created.

Investment is creating employment opportunities both for Tanzanians and expatriates.

4. More Demand for Land and Legal Compliance

• Derivative rights (land ownership rights) approvals increased by 22.2%.
• NIDA ID cards increased by 18.1%.

This shows that investors are securing land for long-term operations and formalizing their presence legally (getting IDs/NINs for employees).

5. Selective Tightening in Some Areas

• Residence permits (-11.4%) and TRA exemption approvals (-11.9%) dropped.
• This could mean:
  • The government is being more selective in approving tax exemptions and permanent residence.
  • Encouraging local hiring and domestic value creation instead of over-depending on expatriates and incentives.

Tanzania is balancing growth with better controls to maximize local economic benefits.

🔵 Summary of the Trend

✅ Tanzania’s investment environment is growing strongly and broadly.
✅ Government facilitation and private sector response are in sync.
✅ Investments are leading to real economy benefits: more jobs, more money, more businesses.
✅ The country is carefully managing some parts (like residence permits and tax exemptions) to safeguard national interests.
Tanzania is solidifying itself as a growing investment destination in 2024 with sustainable, job-creating, and capital-attracting growth trends.

Between 2020 and 2024, Tanzania experienced a remarkable surge in investment activities, signaling growing confidence in the country's economic prospects. The number of projects registered by the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) increased from 207 in 2020 to 901 in 2024 — a 335% growth over five years. At the same time, total capital investment rose sharply from $1.1 billion to $9.3 billion, marking a 745% increase. Job creation linked to these projects also soared by 1,121%, with employment opportunities growing from 17,385 in 2020 to 212,293 in 2024. This rapid expansion reflects both domestic and foreign investor confidence, with domestic projects growing by 402%, foreign projects by 399%, and joint ventures by 184%. Key sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, commercial real estate, transportation, and telecommunications attracted the largest share of capital and created substantial jobs, demonstrating Tanzania’s ongoing transformation into a vibrant investment hub.

Key Figures:

• Total Projects: Increased from 207 (2020) to 901 (2024) — +335% growth.
• Domestic Projects: Increased from 64 (2020) to 321 (2024) — +402% growth.
• Foreign Projects: Increased from 81 (2020) to 404 (2024) — +399% growth.
• Joint Venture Projects: Increased from 62 (2020) to 176 (2024) — +184% growth.
• Capital Investment: Rose from $1.1 billion (2020) to $9.3 billion (2024) — +745% growth.
• Jobs Created: Rose from 17,385 (2020) to 212,293 (2024) — +1,121% growth.
• Top Investment Sectors by Capital (2024): Manufacturing ($2.19 billion), Agriculture ($1.89 billion), Commercial Buildings ($788.86 million).
• Top Sources of FDI (2024): China ($1.05 billion), Vietnam ($783.4 million), Mauritius ($773.96 million).
• Top Region by Investment (2024): Dar es Salaam with $4.44 billion across 356 projects and 107,962 jobs.

Project Registration Trends (2020-2024)

Project Ownership in 2024

• Foreign ownership: 44.8% (compared to 40.7% in 2023)
• Joint ventures: 19.6% (compared to 24.7% in 2023)
• Domestic ownership: 35.6% (compared to 34.6% in 2023)

Sectoral Analysis of Projects (January-December 2024)

Expansion Projects (January-December 2024)

Total expansion projects: 51 projects across various sectors.

Sectors by Project Count

Total projects: 901 The document doesn't provide the exact number for each sector, but visually it appears manufacturing has the highest number of projects, followed by commercial buildings and services.

Jobs Created by Sector (January-December 2024)

Total jobs: 212,293 Top sectors for job creation:

1. Commercial Building: approximately 125,760 jobs
2. Manufacturing: approximately 45,883 jobs
3. Economic Infrastructure: approximately 18,780 jobs
4. Transportation: approximately 7,475 jobs
5. Tourism: approximately 6,949 jobs

Capital Investment by Sector (January-December 2024)

Total investment: $9.3 billion Top sectors receiving investment:

1. Manufacturing: approximately $2.19 billion
2. Agriculture: approximately $1.89 billion
3. Commercial Building: approximately $788.86 million
4. Transportation: approximately $706.39 million
5. Telecommunication: approximately $651.92 million

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Top 5 Sources of FDI in 2024

1. China: $1,053.46 million
2. Vietnam: $783.4 million
3. Mauritius: $773.96 million
4. UAE: $702.52 million
5. United Kingdom: $394.30 million

Top 5 Sources of FDI in 2023

1. China: $2,111.41 million
2. India: $190.53 million
3. Singapore: $143.29 million
4. Hong Kong: $135 million
5. Germany: $131.25 million

Permits, Licenses and Approvals (2024 vs 2023)

The document shows a significant increase in permits, licenses, and approvals issued in 2024 compared to 2023, though the exact numbers aren't clearly visible in the document. The figure shows increases across multiple institutions including Immigration (residence permits), Labor Office (work permits), TRA (approved lists of exemptions), NIDA (legal identity card/NIN), TIC (certificate of incentives), and Ministry of Lands (derivative rights).

Top 10 Regional Distribution (by Capital Investment)

1. Dar es Salaam: 356 projects, 107,962 jobs, $4,440.97 million capital
2. Pwani: 166 projects, 49,784 jobs, $1,243.87 million capital
3. Ruvuma: 11 projects, 5,735 jobs, $597.64 million capital
4. Mwanza: 37 projects, 4,395 jobs, $581.11 million capital
5. Morogoro: 22 projects, 11,556 jobs, $446.17 million capital
6. Shinyanga: 16 projects, 1,121 jobs, $415.21 million capital
7. Arusha: 64 projects, 6,657 jobs, $213.06 million capital
8. Dodoma: 47 projects, 6,540 jobs, $182.36 million capital
9. Kigoma: 8 projects, 774 jobs, $155.62 million capital
10. Tanga: 23 projects, 1,315 jobs, $137.66 million capital

This analysis shows Tanzania's continued growth in investment across various sectors and regions, with significant increases in both domestic and foreign investments over the five-year period.

Trend Analysis of TIC Investment Projects (2020–2024):

1. Massive Growth in Investment Activity

• Project registrations rose 335% (from 207 to 901 projects).
• Strong surges in 2023 (+79%) and 2024 (+71%) especially indicate a sharp acceleration in interest.
• This suggests that Tanzania became a significantly more attractive investment destination over this period — possibly due to government reforms, better investment climate, infrastructure development, or global shifts.

2. Balanced Growth Between Domestic and Foreign Investments

• Domestic projects grew 402%, while foreign projects grew 399%.
• This shows that local investors are increasingly active, not just foreign investors — a positive signal of internal economic confidence and private sector development.

3. Joint Ventures Growing, But More Slowly

• Joint ventures increased 184%, slower compared to domestic and foreign projects.
• This may suggest a need to further encourage partnerships between Tanzanian and foreign investors.

4. Exceptional Job Creation

• Jobs created rose from 17,385 in 2020 to 212,293 in 2024 — a 1,121% increase.
• Shows investment projects are not just rising numerically, but also becoming larger and more labor-intensive, especially in sectors like commercial building and manufacturing.

5. Sharp Increase in Capital Investment

• Capital investment jumped from $1.1 billion to $9.3 billion (+745%).
• This signals larger-scale projects, and higher-value industries being targeted (not just quantity of projects but also quality/size).

6. Sectoral Insights

• Manufacturing is the top sector by project count and by capital investment ($2.19 billion).
• Commercial building dominates in job creation (125,760 jobs) but not necessarily in capital.
• Agriculture attracted the second-highest investment ($1.89 billion), reflecting efforts to modernize and commercialize the sector.
• Transportation and Telecommunications are emerging sectors — critical for logistics and digital economy growth.

7. Changes in Project Ownership Structure

• Foreign ownership increased slightly from 40.7% (2023) to 44.8% (2024).
• Domestic ownership also rose slightly, while joint ventures declined, suggesting investors may increasingly prefer to go solo rather than partner.

8. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Dynamics

• China remains the leading source of FDI in 2023 and 2024, though its FDI declined from $2.1 billion (2023) to $1.05 billion (2024).
• New strong entries in 2024 include Vietnam, Mauritius, and UAE — indicating diversification of Tanzania’s FDI sources.
• Shows shifting global investment patterns towards Tanzania.

9. Administrative Improvements

• A significant increase in permits, licenses, and approvals in 2024 suggests:
  • Greater activity and support from regulatory agencies.
  • Possibly better ease of doing business.
  • Tanzania’s institutions are responding to investment growth with better service delivery.

10. Regional Distribution

• Dar es Salaam and Pwani regions dominate in project number, job creation, and capital — but other regions like Ruvuma and Mwanza also attract significant investments.
• This suggests some beginning of investment decentralization, though still heavily urban/concentrated.

In Summary:

• Tanzania’s investment climate significantly improved from 2020–2024, characterized by:
  • Higher number, size, and diversity of projects.
  • Increased domestic investor participation.
  • Massive job creation.
  • Sectoral diversification.
  • Geographic spreading (still early but visible).
• Policy reforms, institutional strengthening, infrastructure improvements, and targeted promotion efforts likely played key roles.

Tanzania Investment Centre - Key Figures 2020-2024

Project Ownership Distribution (%)

Top 5 Sectors by Job Creation (2024)

Top 5 Sectors by Capital Investment (2024)

Top 5 Sources of FDI

Top 10 Regional Distribution (2024)

Macroeconomic Indicators (2024)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for Tanzania recorded a modest annual increase of 0.35% from 116.03 in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 116.43 in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Despite a quarterly decrease of -0.10% between the third and fourth quarters of 2024, the mining and quarrying sector remained stable with a marginal annual growth of +0.03%, while manufacturing recorded a slight annual growth of +0.62%. Meanwhile, the water supply sector under utilities showed a significant surge of +27.39% over the year, indicating infrastructure pressures and rising operational costs. Based on these trends, Tanzania's overall PPI is forecasted to grow slowly by around 1.0% to 2.0% in 2025, driven by stable mining activities, continued utility sector price pressures, and a slow recovery in the manufacturing sector.

1. Overall Producer Price Index (PPI)

• 2024 Q3: 116.55
• 2024 Q4: 116.43
• Change (Q4 vs Q3): -0.10% (a slight decrease)
• Change (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): +0.35% (marginal annual increase)

2. Sector Performances

➡️ Mining and Quarrying (Weight: 19.08%)

• Q4 2023: 128.66
• Q3 2024: 128.69
• Q4 2024: 128.69
• Change (Q4 vs Q3): 0.00% (no significant change)
• Annual Change: +0.03%

➡️ Manufacturing (Weight: 62.80%)

• Q4 2023: 115.29
• Q3 2024: 116.29
• Q4 2024: 116.01
• Change (Q4 vs Q3): -0.24%
• Annual Change: +0.62%

➡️ Utilities (Electricity, Gas, Water) (Weight: 18.12%)

• Q4 2023: 105.29
• Q3 2024: 104.70
• Q4 2024: 105.01
• Change (Q4 vs Q3): +0.30%
• Annual Change: -0.26%

Top Increases in Prices (Q4 2024 vs Q3 2024)

Top Decreases in Prices (Q4 2024 vs Q3 2024)

Annual Standout Performances (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)

Top 3 Annual Increases:

Top 3 Annual Decreases:

Notes on Methodology:

• Base year: 2018 Q4 = 100
• Weighting base: 2015 Annual Survey of Industrial Production (ASIP 2015).
• Classification: ISIC Rev.4
• Aggregation methods: Jevons geometric mean (elementary aggregates) and Laspeyres formula (higher aggregates).

What the Report Tells About the Main Production Sectors:

1. Manufacturing Sector (Weight: 62.80%)

• PPI fell by -0.24% from Q3 to Q4 2024.
• Annual growth is small (+0.62%).

Meaning:
The manufacturing sector is struggling to push prices up — which usually suggests either:

• Low demand for manufactured products, or
• High competition keeping prices down, or
• Input costs (raw materials, energy) might not have risen much.

Key Problem Sectors inside Manufacturing:

• Rubber and plastics: fell by -3.25%.
• Chemicals: fell by -2.90%.
• Beverages: fell by -2.07%.

These drops tell us some industries are experiencing either oversupply or lower consumer spending (e.g., beverages = people spending less?).

2. Mining and Quarrying (Weight: 19.08%)

• PPI remained stable (0.00% change).

Meaning:
The mining sector is very stable — no price pressures.

• Maybe global metal prices (e.g., gold, ores) are steady.
• Tanzanian mining outputs probably have long-term contracts protecting them from short-term fluctuations.

3. Utilities: Water, Electricity, Gas (Weight: 18.12%)

• Utilities grew +0.30% this quarter.
• Water services exploded by +27.39% year-on-year!

Meaning:
Costs in water services have skyrocketed — maybe:

• Investments in water infrastructure?
• Higher operational costs passed to producers?
• Droughts, climate impacts causing scarcity?

Electricity and gas prices are stable though.

Summary: Which sectors tell the bigger story?

Why is this happening?

My interpretation:

• Global Economic Conditions: Global slowdown → less demand for Tanzanian manufactured goods.
• Local Competition: Tanzanian manufacturers might be facing competition from cheap imports (especially plastics, chemicals).
• Utility Pressures: Essential services like water are becoming expensive, partly due to climate or infrastructure investments.

In short:
👉 Manufacturing is under pressure.
👉 Mining is stable and resilient.
👉 Water utilities are seeing huge price rises, impacting overall production costs.

Forecast for 2025 (Based on 2024 Trends)

1. Manufacturing Sector Forecast (Weight: 62.80%)

• Current trend: Decrease of -0.24% from Q3 to Q4 2024.
• Annual growth: Only +0.62% (almost flat).

2025 Forecast:

• Likely to grow slowly, around +1.0% to +2.0% for the full year, unless there is strong domestic demand or exports grow.
• Some sub-sectors like rubber and plastics, chemicals, and beverages will continue facing pressure.

Reason:

• Global slowdown still affects manufactured goods.
• Competition (local and imports) remains strong.
• Input costs (like raw materials) may stay moderate.

2. Mining and Quarrying Forecast (Weight: 19.08%)

• Current trend: Stable — 0.00% quarterly change, +0.03% annual change.

2025 Forecast:

• Stable to slight increase, around +0.5% to +1.5%.
• Especially if gold and mineral prices globally remain good.

Reason:

• Mining has long-term contracts.
• Tanzania's mining policies are supporting stability.

3. Utilities (Electricity, Water) Forecast (Weight: 18.12%)

• Water services rose sharply by +27.39% in 2024.
• Overall Utilities dropped slightly by -0.26% because electricity prices remained stable.

2025 Forecast:

• Water prices will continue to rise, but more slowly, maybe +5% to +10%.
• Electricity prices stable or slightly higher depending on fuel/import costs.

Reason:

• Water projects, climate impacts, urbanization will keep pressure high.
• Electricity needs big infrastructure investment to avoid big price jumps.

Quick Forecast Table for 2025

Overall 2025 PPI Forecast

• Overall PPI may grow slowly, around +1.0% to +2.0% in 2025.
• Strong sectors (Water supply, Mining stability) will balance weak ones (Manufacturing slow recovery).

Why?

• World economy recovering slowly → small demand growth.
• Climate change affecting water costs.
• Manufacturing needs investment and innovation to grow faster.

The global trade outlook for 2025 has sharply deteriorated following the announcement and partial implementation of new US "reciprocal tariffs," often referred to as Trump tariffs. According to the WTO's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025, the volume of world merchandise trade is now projected to contract by -0.2% in 2025, a stark reversal from the +2.9% growth seen in 2024. If trade policy uncertainty spreads further, the decline could deepen to -1.5%. Global GDP growth at market exchange rates is also expected to slow, falling from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025. North America will experience the heaviest losses, dragging global trade growth down by -1.7 percentage points, while Asia’s contribution to global trade growth is expected to shrink by half to +0.6 percentage points. Services trade, though less directly affected by tariffs, will also slow, with projected growth declining from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.0% in 2025. Despite the challenging environment, least-developed countries (LDCs) could see their merchandise export volume rise by 4.8%, benefiting from trade diversion effects as US importers seek alternatives to Chinese goods.

1. Global Trade Growth

• Merchandise Trade (goods):
  • 2024: +2.9% growth (volume).
  • 2025 (forecast): -0.2% contraction (due to new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty).
  • 2026 (forecast): +2.5% recovery.
• Commercial Services Trade:
  • 2024: +6.8% growth (volume).
  • 2025 (forecast): +4.0% growth.
  • 2026 (forecast): +4.1% growth.

2. Trade in Value Terms

• World Merchandise Exports (2024): US$ 24.43 trillion (+2% value growth).
• World Commercial Services Exports (2024): US$ 8.69 trillion (+9% value growth).

3. Leading Traders (2024)

• Top Merchandise Exporter: China (US$ 3.58 trillion).
• Top Merchandise Importer: USA (US$ 3.36 trillion).
• Top Services Exporter: USA (US$ 1.08 trillion).
• Top Services Importer: USA (US$ 787 billion).
• If counted as a single entity, EU had:
  • Exports: US$ 2.80 trillion (merchandise), US$ 1.64 trillion (services).
  • Imports: US$ 2.63 trillion (merchandise), US$ 1.44 trillion (services).

4. Regional Impact on Trade (2025 Forecast)

5. Risks to the Forecast

• If US reciprocal tariffs are reinstated → World trade could fall by an extra -0.6%.
• If trade policy uncertainty spreads → Another -0.8% cut.
• Combined → Trade may fall -1.5% in 2025.

6. Special Insights

• LDCs (Least-Developed Countries) may benefit from US-China trade tensions:
  • Their exports could grow by +4.8% in 2025 (adjusted forecast).
  • US seeks alternative suppliers for goods like textiles and electronics.

7. Global GDP Growth

• 2024: +2.8% growth.
• 2025 (forecast): +2.2% (adjusted down because of tariffs).
• 2026 (forecast): +2.4%.

8. Sector-Specific Services Growth (2025 Forecast)

9. Highlights from 2024 Performance

• Asia led transport service growth (+18%).
• Africa's travel exports grew +9%, led by countries like Tanzania (+19%).
• Computer services exports (e.g., AI, IT) grew +12% globally, reaching US$ 1 trillion.

Main Impacts of Trump Tariffs:

More Details:

• Trump Tariffs Structure:
  • +25% on many imports (especially cars, steel).
  • +145% extra on goods from China (excluding some electronics).
  • Reciprocal tariffs across all partners (except some exemptions)​.
• Trade Diversion:
  • Chinese exports drop 77% to the US.
  • Other Asian economies and LDCs like Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Lesotho benefit by supplying more to the US​.
• Regional Trade Shifts:
  • Asia ex-China gains some US market share.
  • Africa and LDCs modest gains in exports.
  • North America and Europe suffer from declining trade flows.

Trump Tariffs could cause a -1.5% fall in world merchandise trade, slow global GDP by -0.6%, severely hit North America, and create new export chances for some LDCs.

Global Trade and Economy Are Becoming More Fragile

• In early 2025, the world expected trade and economic growth to continue recovering after past shocks like COVID-19 and inflation.
• But new tariffs, especially the Trump "reciprocal tariffs", have reversed this outlook.

Main Messages:

1. Global trade will shrink in 2025.
   • Merchandise trade will contract by -0.2% (and -1.5% if more uncertainty spreads).
   • Services trade will grow more slowly.
2. North America will suffer the most.
   • Big drop in US and Canada trade and GDP.
   • They cause the biggest drag on world trade growth.
3. Asia and Europe stay positive but weaker.
   • Asia’s trade grows, but much slower.
   • Europe grows a little bit, not strong enough to save global trade.
4. Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) may benefit a little.
   • Some LDCs could sell more to the US as alternatives to China.
   • But they are still vulnerable if global uncertainty grows.
5. Global GDP will slow down.
   • From expected 2.8% growth to about 2.2% in 2025.
   • Trade and economic policies are now major risks for growth.
6. The Trump Tariffs are disruptive.
   • They don’t just hurt US-China trade.
   • They shake global supply chains, cause trade diversion, and hurt overall confidence.
   • Even services (like shipping, travel, IT) are impacted.

In Short:

The world economy in 2025 looks weaker than expected because of new US tariffs. Trade will shrink, growth will slow, and the risks of more disruption are high. Some poor countries might gain opportunities, but the overall environment is more uncertain and fragile.

The introduction of new US reciprocal tariffs in 2025, often referred to as Trump tariffs, is reshaping global trade patterns, creating mixed impacts for Africa and Tanzania. According to the WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025, Africa’s merchandise exports are expected to grow by +0.6% in 2025, slightly higher than previous forecasts, as US buyers seek new suppliers outside China. Least-developed countries, including Tanzania, are projected to benefit from this trade diversion, with export growth for LDCs rising to +4.8%. However, Africa’s services exports, which include key sectors like transport and tourism, are expected to contract by -1.6%, reversing earlier positive expectations. For Tanzania, opportunities lie in expanding agricultural, textile, and gold exports, but risks remain in its tourism and logistics sectors. Despite these challenges, Africa's overall GDP impact is minimal, with projected growth hovering around 0.0% change, reflecting resilience but also vulnerability to further global trade uncertainties.

Africa - Overall Trade Outlook 2025

• Africa’s Merchandise Exports (2025 forecast):
  • Growth: +0.6% (adjusted, after tariffs and uncertainty).
  • 2024 growth was +1.3%.
• Africa’s Merchandise Imports:
  • 2025 forecast: +6.5% growth.
  • Strong import recovery after a slow 2024 (+1.8%).
• Africa’s Services Exports:
  • 2025 baseline forecast was +1.8%.
  • Adjusted forecast: -1.6% decline (due to global uncertainty).
• Impact on Africa’s GDP:
  • 2025 GDP growth is forecast to slow by -0.04% to flat 0.0% growth​.
  • This indicates a mild but noticeable slowdown.

Tanzania Specific Points

• Tanzania is not individually highlighted among Africa's top 10 traders in the WTO report.
• However, based on the region-wide Africa performance and Tanzania's recent growth patterns:
  • Tanzania’s exports (goods and services) are likely to grow modestly, mainly due to opportunities in agriculture, gold, tourism, and digitally delivered services.
  • Risks:
    • Weaker demand from Europe and China.
    • Rising competition from other LDCs benefiting from US-China trade diversions​.

Key Opportunity for Tanzania:
New US demand for textiles, agricultural products, and electronics substitutes from African countries could support +4% to +5% export growth if leveraged well​.

Top 10 African Countries (Trade Outlook 2025)

Note: Rankings based on 2024 export size and WTO forecasts​​.

Quick Figure Highlights:

• Africa's contribution to world trade growth: Only +0.4 percentage points in 2025​.
• Africa’s share in digitally delivered services exports: 0.9% in 2024, slowly rising​.
• Overall world trade contraction: -0.2% (2025).

"Africa’s trade will show mixed results in 2025, with strong import growth but only modest export recovery. Tanzania could benefit from shifts in global trade, but services exports will remain vulnerable."

Impact of Trump Tariffs on Africa (Including Tanzania)

Impact on Tanzania Specifically

• Export Opportunities:
  • Tanzania could gain market access in the US for textiles, garments, agriculture as US buyers look for alternatives to Chinese goods​.
  • Strong sectors: gold exports, horticulture, and tourism recovery.
• Risks:
  • Services sector (tourism, logistics) could suffer because of lower global travel demand: services exports expected to fall -1.6% for Africa, including Tanzania​.
  • Logistics costs may increase (higher shipping costs), which could hurt exporters' competitiveness.
• GDP Impact:
  • Tanzania’s GDP growth impact is very minor (similar to Africa average at 0.0% to slight negative).
  • If global uncertainty spreads more, Tanzania's exports could slow more sharply in late 2025.

Short Conclusion:

"Trump tariffs could offer Tanzania a chance to expand goods exports, especially to the US, but services like tourism and shipping face a slowdown. Overall, Africa will see modest export gains but services sector pain."

As Tanzania continues its journey toward economic self-reliance, the performance of the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) has taken center stage in the country’s budget operations. With consistent improvements in tax collection and administrative reforms, TRA is emerging as the main engine of domestic revenue mobilization. But the key question remains: Can TRA revenues fully support Tanzania’s budget and eliminate the fiscal deficit?

TRA’s Strong Performance: Numbers Speak

From July 2024 to March 2025, TRA collected TZS 24.05 trillion, exceeding the target of TZS 23.21 trillion by TZS 0.84 trillion. This represents a performance rate of 103.62% and a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2023/24.

Projection: By June 2025, TRA is expected to collect over TZS 32 trillion, positioning it to potentially cover most of Tanzania’s recurrent budget.

In comparison, Tanzania typically receives about TZS 7–8 trillion annually in foreign aid and loans. TRA’s revenue is now 4–5 times greater, proving the growing power of domestic resource mobilization.

January 2025 Snapshot: TRA’s Role in Budget Execution

A closer look at January 2025 reveals the real weight of TRA revenues:

• Total Government Revenue: TZS 2,697.8 billion
• TRA Tax Revenue (part of above): TZS 2,222.3 billion
• Total Government Expenditure: TZS 3,576.1 billion

➤ Resulting Budget Deficit:

Deficit = Expenditure – Revenue
= TZS 3,576.1B – TZS 2,697.8B
= TZS 878.3 billion

Even though TRA slightly exceeded its tax collection target by 0.3%, it could not fully cover government spending. This left a financing gap of TZS 878.3 billion, highlighting ongoing fiscal pressure.

Can TRA Close the Budget Gap?

TRA’s improved performance is helping reduce the budget deficit. For example:

• In Q3 (Jan–Mar 2025), TRA overcollected by TZS 100 billion.
• If this overperformance continues each quarter, it would amount to TZS 400–500 billion annually.
• This could reduce the budget deficit by 50% or more.

Still, to completely eliminate the deficit, either:

• Expenditure must be reduced, or
• Other revenues (like non-tax income or grants) must fill the remaining gap.

From Deficit to Surplus — What’s Required?

Let’s do the math:

• Annual Government Expenditure Estimate (FY 2024/25): TZS 38–40 trillion
• Projected TRA Revenue: TZS 32 trillion
• Remaining gap: TZS 6–8 trillion

So even with TRA’s strong performance, Tanzania still faces a potential shortfall of TZS 6–8 trillion annually, unless:

• Development expenditure is strategically reduced,
• Non-tax revenues improve (e.g., state dividends, fees),
• Or external financing is maintained temporarily.

Only when total revenue exceeds expenditure will Tanzania begin to see a budget surplus.

Key Takeaways

TRA Is Leading, But Not Alone

The Tanzania Revenue Authority has undeniably become the pillar of fiscal sustainability. Its strong revenue performance is reducing Tanzania’s dependence on foreign aid and increasing its ability to fund development locally.

But as January’s numbers show, TRA alone is not yet enough to balance the budget. A comprehensive approach — combining efficient spending, improved non-tax revenues, and sustained tax reforms — is essential.

With smart fiscal management and continued TRA performance, Tanzania can achieve true budget independence — and perhaps, a future surplus.

Tanzania Budget Operations vs TRA Revenue

Summary Insights from the Table

• TRA is Tanzania’s main source of domestic financing, contributing over 80% of total monthly revenues and consistently exceeding targets.
• Despite this strength, budget deficits persist due to high recurrent and development spending.
• If current TRA performance continues, it could reduce the deficit by half, but a surplus requires more than just tax revenue — it needs:
  • Better non-tax revenue collection
  • Spending controls
  • Efficient use of resources

As of March 2025, Tanzania recorded 65.7 million mobile money accounts, showing a significant increase from 29.8 million in 2020 — a growth of 120% over five years. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, accounts grew from 64.3 million in January to 65.7 million in March, adding 1.3 million new users. The market is led by M-Pesa with over 26 million accounts, followed by Mixx by Yas (20.2 million) and Airtel Money (12.1 million). Transaction volumes also surged, reaching 10.3 billion in 2024, up from 3.8 billion in 2020, reflecting a 172% increase. These trends highlight the critical role mobile money plays in Tanzania’s growing digital and inclusive economy.

1. Mobile Money Accounts — January to March 2025

What This Tells Us:

• Growth Trend:
  From January to March 2025, mobile money accounts increased by 1,335,129 (from 64.34M to 65.67M), showing continued growth in usage and access.
• Dominant Players:
  • M-Pesa (Vodacom) leads with over 26 million accounts (40% of total).
  • Mixx by Yas (formerly Tigo Pesa) holds steady at around 20.2 million accounts (31%).
  • Airtel Money is also strong, growing from 11.8M to 12.1M in Q1.
• Smallest Player:
  • Azam Pesa has fewer than 40,000 accounts — under 0.1% market share — indicating it is still in early stages or niche focused.
• Stability: T-Pesa (TTCL) maintained the same number of accounts across all three months (1.5 million), suggesting either stagnant growth or a stable, focused user base.

2. Mobile Money Subscriptions and Transactions (2020–2024)

What This Tells Us:

• Explosive 5-Year Growth:
  • Mobile money accounts grew by 111%, from 29.8M (2020) to 63.2M (2024).
  • Transactions more than doubled (172% increase), from 3.77B in 2020 to 10.27B in 2024.
• Year-by-Year Trends:
  • The biggest account growth occurred between 2022 and 2023, with an increase of nearly 13.4 million accounts — coinciding with the rollout of new digital services and network expansions.
  • Transactions followed a similar trend, especially between 2021 and 2024, where usage jumped significantly — suggesting increased trust and reliance on mobile money for daily transactions.
• Digital Financial Inclusion: These figures reflect Tanzania's success in expanding access to digital financial services, especially in rural and underserved areas. It highlights the role of mobile money in boosting economic participation, especially among the unbanked.

Key Takeaways

1. Mobile Money is Strong and Still Growing in 2025

• By March 2025, Tanzania had over 65.6 million mobile money accounts, up from 64.3 million in January — a growth of 1.3 million new accounts in just 3 months.
• This shows continued trust and adoption of mobile money platforms, especially for daily financial needs like sending, receiving, saving, and paying bills.

2. M-Pesa is the Market Leader, But Competition is Healthy

• M-Pesa (Vodacom) leads the market with over 26 million users, about 40% of all mobile money accounts.
• Mixx by Yas (formerly Tigo Pesa) follows with 20.2 million, and Airtel Money with 12.1 million.
• This indicates strong competition among providers, which is good for innovation, pricing, and service quality.

3. Massive 5-Year Growth in Financial Inclusion (2020–2024)

• Mobile money accounts grew by 111%: from 29.8 million in 2020 to 63.2 million in 2024.
• Mobile money transactions grew by 172%: from 3.77 billion in 2020 to 10.27 billion in 2024.
• This shows that mobile money has become a vital part of the economy, especially in reaching the unbanked population.

4. Mobile Money is Driving Tanzania’s Digital Economy

• The data proves that mobile money is no longer just a tool for sending money — it’s a foundation for digital commerce, savings, credit, and everyday transactions.
• As more people sign up and use mobile money, it helps expand financial access, improve service delivery, and boost economic inclusion, especially in rural areas.

As of March 2025, Tanzania recorded 49.3 million internet subscriptions, up from 48.6 million in January, reflecting a 1.57% growth in just one quarter. The majority — over 99% — are mobile wireless connections, highlighting Tanzania’s status as a mobile-first digital economy. Fixed wireless and fixed wired lines accounted for less than 1% combined. In terms of market share, Vodacom led with 34.0%, followed by Yas (30.4%) and Airtel (21.8%), showing strong competition among service providers. The steady growth and mobile dominance indicate increasing digital adoption, especially through smartphones.

1. Monthly Internet Usage (Subscriptions) — January to March 2025

What It Tells Us:

• Steady Growth: Internet subscriptions increased by 1.57% in one quarter — an addition of 764,110 users.
• Mobile Dominance: Mobile wireless accounts for over 99% of internet usage, indicating that mobile phones are the main access point to the internet in Tanzania.
• Fixed Internet (Wired & Wireless): While still small, both fixed wired and fixed wireless connections are slowly increasing — a sign of gradual infrastructure expansion for homes, offices, and institutions.
• Digital Inclusion: More Tanzanians are accessing internet services month-to-month, showing growing digital inclusion and demand for online services.

2. Share of Mobile Internet Subscriptions by Operator — March 2025

What It Tells Us:

• Vodacom Leads: Vodacom maintains a strong position with over one-third of the mobile internet market, indicating reliability, reach, and strong data packages.
• Yas Rising: Yas (formerly Tigo) is close behind, showing strong growth in user adoption and possibly competitive pricing or promotions.
• Airtel’s Solid Share: Airtel controls nearly 22% of the market, reinforcing its role as a major player.
• Smaller Players: Halotel and TTCL have smaller shares, but they play a crucial role in serving specific regions or customer segments.
• Market Diversity: The relatively even distribution among top three operators suggests healthy competition, which may lead to better service quality and pricing for users.

Key Insights from Internet Usage and Market Share

1. Tanzania is a Mobile-First Internet Market

• Over 99% of internet subscriptions come from mobile wireless connections.
• Only a small fraction (less than 1%) use fixed wireless or fixed broadband (like fiber).
• This shows that most Tanzanians access the internet through mobile phones, not desktop or home internet — a clear sign that mobile technology is driving digital inclusion.

2. Internet Adoption Is Growing Steadily

• Between January and March 2025, internet subscriptions grew from 48.57 million to 49.33 million, a rise of 764,110 users (+1.57% in one quarter).
• This steady growth suggests rising demand for internet services, likely due to:
  • Expansion of 4G/5G networks
  • Mobile money and online platforms
  • Social media usage and digital entertainment

3. Market Is Competitive, But Led by Key Players

• Vodacom leads the mobile internet market with 34.0% share — likely due to its wide coverage and stable service.
• Yas (30.4%) and Airtel (21.8%) are strong competitors, showing that users have multiple choices.
• Halotel (10.4%) and TTCL (3.4%) serve smaller niches, often in rural or institutional areas.
• The presence of multiple players encourages better service quality, innovation, and pricing — good news for consumers.

4. Fixed Internet Still Needs Investment

• Fixed wired and wireless subscriptions remain below 1%, meaning most homes and businesses still lack broadband access.
• This signals a need for:
  • Infrastructure development (fiber optics)
  • Government-private partnerships
  • Affordable fixed internet packages

Bottom Line

Tanzania's internet landscape is mobile-driven, growing steadily, and highly competitive. While access is expanding, the next step is to broaden fixed internet coverage and ensure rural areas are connected just like urban centers.

As of March 2025, Tanzania reached 90.4 million mobile subscriptions, marking a significant growth of 76.5% from 51.2 million in 2020. In the most recent quarter alone (Jan–Mar 2025), subscriptions increased by 4.1%, up from 86.8 million in December 2024. Fixed lines remain minimal, at just 0.09% of total subscriptions. Vodacom leads the mobile market with 31.7% share, followed by Yas (28.7%) and Airtel (22.9%). Gender distribution is almost equal, with 51% male and 49% female users, while Dar es Salaam accounts for 18% of the national total, with 16.6 million mobile lines.

Number of Mobile and Fixed Lines from January to March 2025

This table shows the monthly registration totals of mobile and fixed-line telephone subscriptions. Mobile lines dominate, accounting for over 99.9% of all subscriptions. There is consistent monthly growth, with a total increase of over 2.2 million new lines in the first quarter of 2025.

Share (%) of P2P Lines Registered by Each Operator (March 2025)

This table represents the market share of Person-to-Person (P2P) mobile lines by telecom operator. Vodacom leads the market, followed closely by Yas and Airtel. TTCL, primarily a fixed-line service provider, has a small market share in mobile.

Number of P2P Mobile Lines by Gender (March 2025)

Mobile phone ownership shows a nearly even gender distribution, with males slightly leading. This reflects relatively equal access to mobile services among Tanzanian men and women.

Quarterly Trend of Mobile Lines (2024–Q1 2025)

This quarterly trend shows rapid and steady growth in mobile subscriptions. From June 2024 to March 2025, Tanzania added approximately 13.8 million new mobile lines, indicating strong market penetration and mobile service adoption.

Annual Trend of Mobile Lines (2020–2024)

Over the five-year period, Tanzania saw nearly 70% growth in mobile subscriptions. The most significant increase occurred from 2022 to 2024, reflecting the effects of digital transformation, mobile money growth, and telecom competition.

Mobile Line Usage by Top 10 Regions (March 2025)

These figures reflect regional penetration of mobile communication services. Urbanized and economically vibrant regions like Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, and Arusha dominate due to high population density, better infrastructure, and business activity. This geographic concentration highlights opportunities for targeted telecom investments in less-served areas.

What It Tells Us:

1. Rapid Growth in Mobile Connectivity

• Mobile subscriptions grew from 86.8 million in Dec 2024 to 90.3 million by March 2025, a 4.1% increase in just one quarter.
• This shows a very high demand for mobile communication, likely driven by affordable services, mobile money, and digital adoption.

2. Fixed Lines Are Nearly Obsolete

• Only around 79,000 fixed lines exist, compared to 90 million mobile lines.
• Fixed lines represent less than 0.1% of all lines, confirming that mobile is the dominant telecom platform in Tanzania.

3. Fair Gender Access

• Males (51%) and females (49%) own mobile lines in almost equal measure.
• This suggests equitable access to mobile services, an important sign for digital inclusion efforts.

4. Intense Competition Among Mobile Operators

• Vodacom (31.7%), Yas (28.7%), and Airtel (22.9%) dominate the market.
• Yas (formerly Tigo) has grown significantly, overtaking Airtel.
• This competitive environment may drive better pricing, services, and innovation.

5. Strong Urban and Regional Disparities

• Dar es Salaam alone has over 16 million lines, nearly 18% of all lines in the country.
• Other urban centers like Mwanza, Arusha, and Mbeya also show high numbers.
• It reveals urban dominance, but also shows where rural telecom investments could grow.

6. Consistent Year-on-Year Growth

• Mobile lines grew from 51 million in 2020 to over 90 million in 2025 — a 76% increase in 5 years.
• Tanzania is catching up fast with global connectivity trends, especially in mobile-first economies.

Policy & Business Implications

• For the government: there's an opportunity to close rural and digital gender gaps.
• For businesses: there's a growing, competitive, and increasingly inclusive market for mobile services.
• For investors: Tanzania’s telecom sector shows strong growth potential with room for infrastructure and digital service expansion.

In 2024, global debt surged to an alarming USD 250 trillion, equal to 237% of global GDP, as reported by the IMF’s 2024 Global Debt Monitor. Of this, USD 98 trillion was public debt (94% of GDP), and over USD 150 trillion was private debt (143% of GDP). These high levels of global debt—especially in public finances—create ripple effects for low-income countries like Tanzania, which recorded a public debt of 43.3% of GDP in the same year. While Tanzania’s debt remains below the average for Low-Income Developing Countries (50% of GDP), increasing global borrowing costs, tighter financial conditions, and slowing global growth (expected to fall from 2.7% to 2.2% over the next five years) pose challenges. These pressures may raise Tanzania’s external debt servicing costs, limit access to affordable financing, and affect government spending and private sector credit growth.

How Global Debt Trends Could Impact Tanzania's Economy and Public Debt

1. Rising Global Public Debt Creates External Pressure

• Global public debt reached USD 98 trillion (94% of global GDP in 2023/2024).
• Many low-income developing countries (LIDCs), including Tanzania, have seen public debt increase. LIDC public debt rose to 50% of GDP, the highest since early 2000s.
• Tanzania’s own public debt stood at about 43.3% of GDP in 2023/2024 (Bank of Tanzania data), below the LIDC average — but upward pressure is visible.

Implication:
As more countries compete for external financing, borrowing costs could rise for Tanzania, especially for external commercial debt. This could lead to higher debt servicing costs and reduce fiscal space for development spending.

2. Reduced Private Sector Borrowing Globally — Credit Squeeze Risk

• Global private debt fell to 143% of GDP, with household debt at 54% and corporate debt at 90%.
• In emerging and low-income economies, private debt growth has slowed or reversed.
• In Tanzania, private sector credit growth declined slightly in 2023/2024, and is mostly concentrated in trade, manufacturing, and personal loans.

Implication:
If global banks and investors become more risk-averse, Tanzania's private sector may face tighter access to credit — especially SMEs and startups that depend on microfinance or external funding.

3. Tight Global Financial Conditions — Impact on Debt Sustainability

• The IMF highlights that higher interest rates globally are not reducing debt levels significantly but are increasing servicing costs.
• Tanzania’s external debt service payments were over USD 1.5 billion in FY2022/23, and this will likely rise with any tightening in external financial markets.

Implication:
Tanzania may need to shift more toward concessional financing or domestic sources to avoid debt distress. Already, the country spends about 14–16% of government revenue on debt service, a figure that could increase if global rates stay high.

4. Risk of Slower Global Growth — Impacts on Tanzania’s Exports and Revenue

• Global medium-term growth expectations declined from 2.7% to 2.2% (5-year forecast).
• This implies reduced demand for Tanzanian exports such as minerals, tourism, and agricultural products.

Implication:
Lower global demand could mean slower foreign exchange earnings, potentially weakening the shilling, reducing government revenue, and making external debt more expensive to repay.

Summary for Tanzania:

Global vs. Tanzania Debt Figures (2023/2024)

What Tanzania Should Consider:

• Prioritize concessional borrowing and monitor external debt exposure.
• Strengthen domestic revenue mobilization to reduce dependency.
• Promote local financial inclusion and SME support to sustain private sector momentum.
• Maintain fiscal prudence to stay below LIDC risk levels (currently at 43.3% of GDP, still manageable).