The Producer Price Index (PPI) for Tanzania recorded a modest annual increase of 0.35% from 116.03 in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 116.43 in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Despite a quarterly decrease of -0.10% between the third and fourth quarters of 2024, the mining and quarrying sector remained stable with a marginal annual growth of +0.03%, while manufacturing recorded a slight annual growth of +0.62%. Meanwhile, the water supply sector under utilities showed a significant surge of +27.39% over the year, indicating infrastructure pressures and rising operational costs. Based on these trends, Tanzania's overall PPI is forecasted to grow slowly by around 1.0% to 2.0% in 2025, driven by stable mining activities, continued utility sector price pressures, and a slow recovery in the manufacturing sector.

1. Overall Producer Price Index (PPI)

• 2024 Q3: 116.55
• 2024 Q4: 116.43
• Change (Q4 vs Q3): -0.10% (a slight decrease)
• Change (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023): +0.35% (marginal annual increase)

2. Sector Performances

➡️ Mining and Quarrying (Weight: 19.08%)

• Q4 2023: 128.66
• Q3 2024: 128.69
• Q4 2024: 128.69
• Change (Q4 vs Q3): 0.00% (no significant change)
• Annual Change: +0.03%

➡️ Manufacturing (Weight: 62.80%)

• Q4 2023: 115.29
• Q3 2024: 116.29
• Q4 2024: 116.01
• Change (Q4 vs Q3): -0.24%
• Annual Change: +0.62%

➡️ Utilities (Electricity, Gas, Water) (Weight: 18.12%)

• Q4 2023: 105.29
• Q3 2024: 104.70
• Q4 2024: 105.01
• Change (Q4 vs Q3): +0.30%
• Annual Change: -0.26%

Top Increases in Prices (Q4 2024 vs Q3 2024)

Top Decreases in Prices (Q4 2024 vs Q3 2024)

Annual Standout Performances (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)

Top 3 Annual Increases:

Top 3 Annual Decreases:

Notes on Methodology:

• Base year: 2018 Q4 = 100
• Weighting base: 2015 Annual Survey of Industrial Production (ASIP 2015).
• Classification: ISIC Rev.4
• Aggregation methods: Jevons geometric mean (elementary aggregates) and Laspeyres formula (higher aggregates).

What the Report Tells About the Main Production Sectors:

1. Manufacturing Sector (Weight: 62.80%)

• PPI fell by -0.24% from Q3 to Q4 2024.
• Annual growth is small (+0.62%).

Meaning:
The manufacturing sector is struggling to push prices up — which usually suggests either:

• Low demand for manufactured products, or
• High competition keeping prices down, or
• Input costs (raw materials, energy) might not have risen much.

Key Problem Sectors inside Manufacturing:

• Rubber and plastics: fell by -3.25%.
• Chemicals: fell by -2.90%.
• Beverages: fell by -2.07%.

These drops tell us some industries are experiencing either oversupply or lower consumer spending (e.g., beverages = people spending less?).

2. Mining and Quarrying (Weight: 19.08%)

• PPI remained stable (0.00% change).

Meaning:
The mining sector is very stable — no price pressures.

• Maybe global metal prices (e.g., gold, ores) are steady.
• Tanzanian mining outputs probably have long-term contracts protecting them from short-term fluctuations.

3. Utilities: Water, Electricity, Gas (Weight: 18.12%)

• Utilities grew +0.30% this quarter.
• Water services exploded by +27.39% year-on-year!

Meaning:
Costs in water services have skyrocketed — maybe:

• Investments in water infrastructure?
• Higher operational costs passed to producers?
• Droughts, climate impacts causing scarcity?

Electricity and gas prices are stable though.

Summary: Which sectors tell the bigger story?

Why is this happening?

My interpretation:

• Global Economic Conditions: Global slowdown → less demand for Tanzanian manufactured goods.
• Local Competition: Tanzanian manufacturers might be facing competition from cheap imports (especially plastics, chemicals).
• Utility Pressures: Essential services like water are becoming expensive, partly due to climate or infrastructure investments.

In short:
👉 Manufacturing is under pressure.
👉 Mining is stable and resilient.
👉 Water utilities are seeing huge price rises, impacting overall production costs.

Forecast for 2025 (Based on 2024 Trends)

1. Manufacturing Sector Forecast (Weight: 62.80%)

• Current trend: Decrease of -0.24% from Q3 to Q4 2024.
• Annual growth: Only +0.62% (almost flat).

2025 Forecast:

• Likely to grow slowly, around +1.0% to +2.0% for the full year, unless there is strong domestic demand or exports grow.
• Some sub-sectors like rubber and plastics, chemicals, and beverages will continue facing pressure.

Reason:

• Global slowdown still affects manufactured goods.
• Competition (local and imports) remains strong.
• Input costs (like raw materials) may stay moderate.

2. Mining and Quarrying Forecast (Weight: 19.08%)

• Current trend: Stable — 0.00% quarterly change, +0.03% annual change.

2025 Forecast:

• Stable to slight increase, around +0.5% to +1.5%.
• Especially if gold and mineral prices globally remain good.

Reason:

• Mining has long-term contracts.
• Tanzania's mining policies are supporting stability.

3. Utilities (Electricity, Water) Forecast (Weight: 18.12%)

• Water services rose sharply by +27.39% in 2024.
• Overall Utilities dropped slightly by -0.26% because electricity prices remained stable.

2025 Forecast:

• Water prices will continue to rise, but more slowly, maybe +5% to +10%.
• Electricity prices stable or slightly higher depending on fuel/import costs.

Reason:

• Water projects, climate impacts, urbanization will keep pressure high.
• Electricity needs big infrastructure investment to avoid big price jumps.

Quick Forecast Table for 2025

Overall 2025 PPI Forecast

• Overall PPI may grow slowly, around +1.0% to +2.0% in 2025.
• Strong sectors (Water supply, Mining stability) will balance weak ones (Manufacturing slow recovery).

Why?

• World economy recovering slowly → small demand growth.
• Climate change affecting water costs.
• Manufacturing needs investment and innovation to grow faster.