Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania, the National Bureau of Statistics or the Government. "Output per person" is regional GDP divided by population (GDP per capita) as published by NBS; it is not household income. The report does not state the causes of regional differences; the explanations below are TICGL/TERI's reading of the figures, each marked by how well the data support it. The outlook (Tab 6) is a set of scenarios, not a forecast of record. p = provisional.
00 - OverviewThe Short Answer: What the Output-Per-Person Numbers Say
Output per person in Dar es Salaam reached TZS 6.78 million in 2025, 3.9 times the TZS 1.74 million of Simiyu region, the lowest in the country. The gap is not new: the ratio has stayed between 3.7 and 4.2 in every year from 2019 to 2025, and Simiyu has been the lowest region in every one of those years. Lake zone, home to 32% of mainland people, produces only 26.1% of GDP, which puts its output per person 18% below the national average. This report uses the Bank of Tanzania regional series (Annexes 1 and 2, 2019-2025) to show how the numbers are built, whether the gap is closing, what it does and does not mean, and what the next six months are likely to change.
Output Per Person in All 26 Regions, 2025
How Far Ahead Is Dar es Salaam? Ratio of Output Per Person, 2019-2025
Key findings
- The gap has lasted at least seven years. Dar es Salaam to Simiyu was 4.21x in 2019 and 3.89x in 2025p, with a low of 3.74x in 2022. It narrowed slightly in 2025 (from 4.00x), because Simiyu output per person rose 10.6% against 7.5% in Dar es Salaam, but one year does not make a trend.
- Regions are not converging. Between 2022 and 2025, regions that started richer grew slightly faster (correlation +0.27), and Simiyu grew 4.8% a year against 6.1% in Dar es Salaam and 5.7% nationally.
- It is mainly a zone story. About 65% of regional inequality sits between the six zones and 35% within them. Lake zone shows the within-zone spread most clearly: Mwanza (TZS 4.07 m) is above the national average while Simiyu (1.74 m), Kagera (1.85 m) and Kigoma (2.30 m) are the lowest, and Dodoma (2.11 m), Singida (1.99 m) and Pwani (2.16 m) are also in the bottom six.
- Over half of Tanzanians live in regions below the average. 14 regions are below TZS 3.54 million and hold 55.4% of people but 39.8% of output.
- These are output figures, not incomes. GDP per person measures what is produced where, divided by residents. Head offices, the port, government and large firms put output in Dar es Salaam that is not earned by its residents alone. The true gap in household incomes is probably smaller, but the report has no household income or poverty data by region to measure it.
A gap that has lasted seven years will not close in six months, and the 2026 regional numbers will not be published until well after the period ends. What can change is real purchasing power. Inflation in June 2026 was 6.2% in Dar es Salaam, 8.0% in Southern Highlands, 5.2% in Central, but only 3.0% in Lake and 2.6% in South Eastern. If nominal output per person keeps growing at its 2022-25 pace and prices follow the base case from our zonal economy report, real growth per person stays positive in every zone but is thinnest in Dar es Salaam (about +0.6%); under the stress case it turns negative in four of six zones (Dar es Salaam -1.6%, Southern Highlands -0.7%, Lake -0.3%, Northern -0.2%) (Tab 6).
01 - The NumbersOutput Per Person: Regions, Zones and a Break in the Series
The Bank of Tanzania report reproduces the National Bureau of Statistics regional series for GDP (Annex 1) and GDP per person (Annex 2) for the 26 mainland regions from 2019 to 2025. Dividing one by the other gives the population the statisticians used for each region and year, which is how we derive population shares below. Zanzibar is not included.
1.1 All 26 regions
| Region | Zone | 2019 | 2022 | 2024 | 2025p | Index (mainland = 100) | Growth 2025 | CAGR 2022-25 | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dar es Salaam | Dar es Salaam | 4.49 | 5.67 | 6.31 | 6.78 | 191 | +7.5% | +6.1% | 1 |
| Iringa | Southern Highlands | 3.85 | 4.73 | 5.21 | 5.71 | 161 | +9.5% | +6.4% | 2 |
| Kilimanjaro | Northern | 3.27 | 4.29 | 4.81 | 5.20 | 147 | +8.1% | +6.6% | 3 |
| Mbeya | Southern Highlands | 3.65 | 4.27 | 4.70 | 5.06 | 143 | +7.7% | +5.8% | 4 |
| Njombe | Southern Highlands | 3.06 | 3.66 | 4.05 | 4.53 | 128 | +11.8% | +7.4% | 5 |
| Arusha | Northern | 3.18 | 3.58 | 4.03 | 4.28 | 121 | +6.1% | +6.2% | 6 |
| Ruvuma | South Eastern | 3.27 | 3.64 | 3.93 | 4.16 | 117 | +5.9% | +4.5% | 7 |
| Mwanza | Lake | 2.71 | 3.48 | 3.82 | 4.07 | 115 | +6.4% | +5.4% | 8 |
| Tanga | Northern | 2.72 | 3.19 | 3.54 | 3.80 | 107 | +7.4% | +6.0% | 9 |
| Manyara | Northern | 2.58 | 3.22 | 3.50 | 3.73 | 105 | +6.5% | +5.0% | 10 |
| Mtwara | South Eastern | 2.61 | 3.02 | 3.34 | 3.58 | 101 | +7.2% | +5.8% | 11 |
| Lindi | South Eastern | 2.74 | 2.99 | 3.28 | 3.57 | 101 | +8.8% | +6.1% | 12 |
| Shinyanga | Lake | 2.62 | 2.81 | 3.16 | 3.40 | 96 | +7.7% | +6.6% | 13 |
| Morogoro | Central | 2.51 | 2.69 | 3.01 | 3.27 | 92 | +8.8% | +6.8% | 14 |
| Mara | Lake | 2.21 | 2.72 | 3.03 | 3.26 | 92 | +7.5% | +6.2% | 15 |
| Geita | Lake | 2.65 | 2.73 | 2.90 | 3.13 | 88 | +7.9% | +4.6% | 16 |
| Songwe | Southern Highlands | 2.05 | 2.42 | 2.71 | 2.94 | 83 | +8.7% | +6.7% | 17 |
| Rukwa | Southern Highlands | 2.43 | 2.45 | 2.74 | 2.88 | 81 | +5.1% | +5.4% | 18 |
| Katavi | Southern Highlands | 2.44 | 2.10 | 2.29 | 2.46 | 69 | +7.2% | +5.4% | 19 |
| Kigoma | Lake | 1.44 | 2.02 | 2.17 | 2.30 | 65 | +6.1% | +4.5% | 20 |
| Tabora | Central | 1.73 | 1.95 | 2.16 | 2.30 | 65 | +6.5% | +5.5% | 21 |
| Pwani | South Eastern | 2.10 | 1.78 | 1.95 | 2.16 | 61 | +10.9% | +6.6% | 22 |
| Dodoma | Central | 1.67 | 1.81 | 2.00 | 2.11 | 60 | +5.6% | +5.3% | 23 |
| Singida | Central | 1.62 | 1.71 | 1.84 | 1.99 | 56 | +7.7% | +5.1% | 24 |
| Kagera | Lake | 1.14 | 1.53 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 52 | +9.1% | +6.4% | 25 |
| Simiyu | Lake | 1.07 | 1.51 | 1.58 | 1.74 | 49 | +10.6% | +4.8% | 26 |
| Mainland Tanzania | 2.56 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 3.54 | 100 | +7.4% | +5.7% |
Source: NBS via Bank of Tanzania, Annex 2 (TZS million per person, current prices); index, growth and rank are TICGL calc. Compound growth is measured from 2022 because the series is re-based between 2021 and 2022 (see 1.3).
1.2 The six zones
| Zone | People 2025 (m) | Share of people % | GDP 2025 (TZS tn) | Share of GDP % | Per person 2025 (TZS m) | Per person 2019 (TZS m) | Index 2025 (mainland = 100) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | 12.9 | 19.5 | 31.7 | 13.5 | 2.46 | 1.91 | 69 |
| Dar es Salaam | 5.9 | 8.9 | 39.8 | 17.0 | 6.78 | 4.49 | 191 |
| Lake | 21.1 | 32.0 | 61.0 | 26.1 | 2.89 | 1.97 | 82 |
| Northern | 9.6 | 14.5 | 40.3 | 17.2 | 4.21 | 2.94 | 119 |
| South Eastern | 7.3 | 11.0 | 24.1 | 10.3 | 3.31 | 2.71 | 93 |
| Southern Highlands | 9.3 | 14.1 | 37.2 | 15.9 | 3.99 | 3.01 | 112 |
| Mainland | 66.1 | 100.0 | 234.1 | 100.0 | 3.54 | 2.56 | 100 |
Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; zone figures are the sum of regions (TICGL calc.); people = GDP / GDP per person.
Output Per Person by Zone, 2019-2025
Each Zone as a Percentage of the Mainland Average
1.3 A break in the series in 2022
The per-person series jumps between 2021 and 2022: Simiyu +23.0%, Kigoma +29.0%, Katavi falls 18.8%. The cause is visible in the implied population. Katavi goes from 0.84 million to 1.15 million people and Kigoma from 2.90 million to 2.47 million in one year, while GDP in both grows smoothly. This is consistent with population estimates being re-based, most likely to the 2022 Census, though the report does not say so. The practical rule is: levels in 2025 are comparable across regions, trends are reliable from 2022 onward, and any comparison that crosses 2021 and 2022 mixes two population bases. This page therefore measures growth and convergence from 2022 and treats 2019-2021 as a separate earlier series.
Monthly equivalents make the numbers concrete, though they are output, not take-home pay: TZS 6.78 million a year is about TZS 565,000 per person per month in Dar es Salaam, against about TZS 145,000 in Simiyu and TZS 295,000 on the mainland average. Moving every region to the national average would require about TZS 36.4 trillion of additional output a year (TZS 15.6% of GDP).
02 - People vs OutputLake Zone: 32% of People, 26.1% of Output, and Inequality Within Zones
Lake zone has 32.0% of mainland people (about 21.1 million) but produces 26.1% of GDP (TZS 61.0 trillion). Dividing the two shares gives 82% of the national average, which is the 18% shortfall in the data. The same arithmetic applies to every zone: a zone whose share of GDP is below its share of people is below the average per person.
| Zone | Share of people % | Share of GDP % | Difference (points) | GDP share / people share (index) | Output per person (TZS m) | Regions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dar es Salaam | 8.9 | 17.0 | 8.1 | 191 | 6.78 | 1 |
| Northern | 14.5 | 17.2 | 2.7 | 119 | 4.21 | 4 |
| Southern Highlands | 14.1 | 15.9 | 1.8 | 112 | 3.99 | 6 |
| South Eastern | 11.0 | 10.3 | -0.7 | 93 | 3.31 | 4 |
| Lake | 32.0 | 26.1 | -5.9 | 82 | 2.89 | 7 |
| Central | 19.5 | 13.5 | -6.0 | 69 | 2.46 | 4 |
Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc. Index of 100 = output in line with population.
Share of People vs Share of Output by Zone, 2025
Lake Zone Output Per Person Relative to the Mainland, 2019-2025
2.1 Inside Lake zone: the gap runs through the middle of it
| Region | People (m) | GDP (TZS tn) | Per person (TZS m) | Index (mainland = 100) | Growth 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mwanza | 4.12 | 16.75 | 4.07 | 115 | +6.4% |
| Shinyanga | 2.48 | 8.44 | 3.40 | 96 | +7.7% |
| Mara | 2.65 | 8.63 | 3.26 | 92 | +7.5% |
| Geita | 3.36 | 10.50 | 3.13 | 88 | +7.9% |
| Kigoma | 2.76 | 6.34 | 2.30 | 65 | +6.1% |
| Kagera | 3.32 | 6.15 | 1.85 | 52 | +9.1% |
| Simiyu | 2.43 | 4.23 | 1.74 | 49 | +10.6% |
| Lake zone | 21.1 | 61.0 | 2.89 | 82 | +7.5% |
Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc. (people = GDP / GDP per person).
Lake Zone Regions: Output Per Person vs the Mainland Average, 2025
Mwanza (4.07 million, 115% of the average) lifts the zone, while Simiyu, Kagera and Kigoma, with 8.5 million people between them, sit 35-51% below the average. Lake zone also accounts for 69.3% of mineral recovery in 2025/26, yet its output per person is the second lowest of the six zones. Geita, the zone's second-largest regional economy (TZS 10.5 trillion), has output per person at 88% of the national average. The report does not describe how mining value added is allocated to regions, so we cannot say whether this reflects small local value added, profits booked elsewhere, or both.
2.2 How unequal are regions, taken together?
| Year | Gini across 26 regions (population-weighted) | Highest / lowest region |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 0.205 | 4.21 |
| 2020 | 0.207 | 4.18 |
| 2021 | 0.208 | 4.04 |
| 2022 | 0.215 | 3.74 |
| 2023 | 0.217 | 3.84 |
| 2024 | 0.218 | 4.00 |
| 2025p | 0.218 | 3.89 |
Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Annexes 1 and 2. A Gini of 0 means every region has the same output per person.
Lorenz Curve of Output Across Regions, 2025
The population-weighted Gini across regions is 0.218 in 2025, up from 0.205 in 2019. The ten poorest regions hold 37% of people and 23% of output. A Theil decomposition shows 65% of the inequality is between the six zones and 35% within them. This measures inequality between regional averages, so it understates inequality between households.
Lake zone is the clearest example of why a zone average misleads. Its 18% shortfall is the result of a premium pocket (Mwanza) and a low-output belt (Simiyu, Kagera, Kigoma) that together are 21.1 million people. Policy and market-entry choices made at zone level miss this; they need to be made at regional level.
03 - What Sits Behind the GapWhy Output Per Person Differs: Structure, Location and Measurement
Why is output per person so different across regions? The Bank of Tanzania report has no sector breakdown of regional GDP, so the question cannot be answered directly. What it does have is zone-level data on manufacturing, banking, public revenue, power and food, which can be divided by population to see what the high-output zone has that the others do not. The pattern is clear, though the mechanisms are partly inferred.
| Zone | GDP per person 2025 (TZS m) | Manufactured output per person 2025/26 (TZS '000) | Bank deposits per person (TZS '000) | Local-government own revenue per person (TZS '000) | Electricity generated per person (kWh) | Food crops per person (kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dar es Salaam | 6.78 | 1,716 | 5,347 | 60 | 730 | 2 |
| Northern | 4.21 | 299 | 560 | 21 | 47 | 319 |
| Southern Highlands | 3.99 | 101 | 203 | 28 | 61 | 757 |
| South Eastern | 3.31 | 522 | 220 | 37 | 905 | 410 |
| Lake | 2.89 | 70 | 249 | 16 | 11 | 350 |
| Central | 2.46 | 162 | 349 | 18 | 150 | 366 |
| Mainland | 3.54 | 322 | 757 | 25 | 213 | 382 |
Source: BoT Tables 1.1-1.2, 3.1, 4.3, 5.x, 6.1 and the energy tables; per-person figures are TICGL calc. using population implied by GDP / GDP per person. Electricity and manufacturing are booked where plants are, not where people live.
What Dar es Salaam Has More of, Per Person
Food-Crop Output Per Person by Zone, 2025/26
3.1 Six explanations, ranked by how well the data support them
| Explanation | What the data show | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Dar es Salaam is where manufacturing, finance and trade concentrate | It has 8.9% of people but 47.4% of manufactured output (index 533), 62.8% of deposits (index 706) and 238% of the average local revenue per person. | Measured |
| 2. Records and headquarters sit there | 88.2% of tax collections and 85.4% of port cargo are booked in Dar es Salaam, so part of its GDP is output for the whole country that is attributed to its location. | Measured; the attribution rule is not described |
| 3. Farming alone does not lift output per person | Southern Highlands produces 757 kg of food per person, 2.0x the average, and sits at 112% of national output per person. Central produces 366 kg per person, near the average, but only 69% of the national figure. | Measured |
| 4. Power is generated far from where output per person is highest | South Eastern generates 905 kWh per person (4.2x the average) and sits at 93% of national output per person; Lake generates 11 kWh per person. | Measured |
| 5. Government presence does not raise output per person by itself | Dodoma, the capital, has output per person of TZS 2.11 million, 60% of the national average and fourth lowest of the 26 regions. | Measured |
| 6. Dar es Salaam's workforce partly lives next door | If many people who work in Dar es Salaam live in Pwani region, output is counted in one and people in the other. Pwani has output per person of TZS 2.16 million, fifth lowest of the 26 regions. | Hypothesis; not testable from the report |
Source: BoT zonal tables and Annexes 1-2; TICGL calc. "Measured" means the figure is in the report; the interpretation is TICGL/TERI's.
The common thread is that output per person tracks where non-farm, non-extractive activity is booked, not where the most food, power or minerals are produced. That is why Dar es Salaam is far ahead, why Southern Highlands (a food surplus zone) is only a little above the average, and why Lake, despite 69.3% of mineral recovery, is not. The way to raise output per person in the lower regions is therefore to add value locally, not simply to produce more raw output.
04 - Is the Gap Closing?Seven Years of Ratios, No Convergence, and the Arithmetic of Catching Up
The seven-year record answers the "how long" question directly: the gap between Dar es Salaam and the lowest region has not closed, and on the evidence of 2022-2025 it is not on a path to close. This tab sets out the year-by-year ratios, tests whether poorer regions grow faster, and then does the arithmetic of catching up.
4.1 Seven years of ratios
| Year | Dar es Salaam (TZS m) | Simiyu (TZS m) | Dar es Salaam / Simiyu | Dar es Salaam / mainland | Simiyu as % of mainland | Regional Gini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 4.49 | 1.07 | 4.21x | 1.75x | 42% | 0.205 |
| 2020 | 4.72 | 1.13 | 4.18x | 1.76x | 42% | 0.207 |
| 2021 | 4.98 | 1.23 | 4.04x | 1.77x | 44% | 0.208 |
| 2022 | 5.67 | 1.51 | 3.74x | 1.89x | 51% | 0.215 |
| 2023 | 5.93 | 1.54 | 3.84x | 1.92x | 50% | 0.217 |
| 2024 | 6.31 | 1.58 | 4.00x | 1.91x | 48% | 0.218 |
| 2025p | 6.78 | 1.74 | 3.89x | 1.91x | 49% | 0.218 |
Source: BoT Annex 2; ratios and Gini are TICGL calc. The 2022 step reflects the population re-basing described in Tab 1.
4.2 Year-on-year growth in output per person
| Region | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025p | CAGR 2022-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dar es Salaam | +5.2% | +5.4% | +13.8% | +4.7% | +6.3% | +7.5% | +6.1% |
| Simiyu | +6.1% | +9.0% | +23.0% | +1.9% | +2.1% | +10.6% | +4.8% |
| Kagera | +3.6% | +4.7% | +24.3% | +3.6% | +6.7% | +9.1% | +6.4% |
| Mainland | +4.4% | +4.8% | +6.8% | +3.3% | +6.6% | +7.4% | +5.7% |
Source: BoT Annex 2; TICGL calc. 2022 growth reflects the re-basing; compare years from 2023 onward.
From 2023, Simiyu grew 1.9% and 2.1% while Dar es Salaam grew 4.7% and 6.3%, and the ratio drifted up from 3.74 to 4.00. In 2025 Simiyu grew 10.6% against 7.5% and the ratio fell to 3.89. Over the three years 2022-25, however, Simiyu averaged 4.8% a year, Dar es Salaam 6.1% and the mainland 5.7%. Simiyu is the fastest-growing region in GDP terms in 2025 (+14.7%), so the 2025 improvement may be the start of a catch-up, but it is a single observation after two years of falling behind.
4.3 Do poorer regions grow faster?
If regions were converging, those starting with lower output per person in 2022 would show faster growth to 2025. The opposite holds weakly: the correlation between 2022 output per person (logarithm) and annual growth to 2025 across the 26 regions is +0.27, meaning slightly faster growth among the richer regions. The fastest-growing regions were Njombe (7.4%), Morogoro (6.8%), Songwe (6.7%), Pwani (6.6%) and Shinyanga (6.6%); the slowest were Kigoma (4.5%), Ruvuma (4.5%), Geita (4.6%), Simiyu (4.8%) and Manyara (5.0%). With 26 regions and three years, this is suggestive, not conclusive.
Starting Level vs Growth: No Sign of Convergence, 2022-2025
4.4 How long would catching up take?
The table asks how fast each of the six lowest regions would need to grow, each year, to reach the national average of TZS 3.54 million within 10, 20 or 30 years, assuming the mainland average itself keeps growing at its 2022-25 pace of 5.7% a year. All figures are nominal; they are relative comparisons, so inflation cancels out if it affects all regions equally.
| Region | Zone | Output per person 2025 (TZS m) | Needed a year: 10 yrs | 20 yrs | 30 yrs | Actual 2022-25 pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simiyu | Lake | 1.74 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 4.8% |
| Kagera | Lake | 1.85 | 12.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% |
| Singida | Central | 1.99 | 12.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.1% |
| Dodoma | Central | 2.11 | 11.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% |
| Pwani | South Eastern | 2.16 | 11.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% |
| Tabora | Central | 2.30 | 10.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% |
Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Annex 2. Needed growth = (national average 2025 / region 2025)^(1/N) x (1 + national growth) - 1.
Growth Needed to Reach the National Average in 20 Years vs Actual Pace
- At the 2022-25 pace the gap widens. If Simiyu keeps growing at 4.8% and Dar es Salaam at 6.1%, the ratio rises from 3.9x to 4.4x in ten years and 5.0x in twenty.
- Simiyu needs about 9.6% a year to reach the national average in 20 years, roughly double its own 2022-25 pace. If it repeated its 2025 pace (10.6%) every year while the mainland grew 5.7%, it would take about 16 years.
- All six of the lowest regions are growing below the pace needed even for a 30-year catch-up. Pwani is closest (6.6% a year against 7.5% needed); Simiyu is furthest (4.8% against 8.3%).
On the evidence of the series, the honest answer is: more than a generation at current rates, and never if the 2022-25 pattern simply continues. The gap is shaped by structure (where manufacturing, finance and headquarters sit), and structure changes slowly. A six-month window cannot move it; it can only show whether 2025's faster Simiyu growth was a turning point.
05 - What It MeansOutput vs Income, Market Size, Real Growth and Local Public Finance
What do the numbers mean once they are read correctly? Five points follow: what output per person is and is not, what it says about market size, whether people are better off in real terms, what it means for local public finance, and how concentrated demand is.
5.1 Output per person is not income per person
GDP per person divides the value added produced in a region by the people who live there. It includes company profits, depreciation, taxes on products and the pay of workers who live elsewhere, none of which reaches residents as household income. In Dar es Salaam, where headquarters, the port and government are located, the share of output that is not earned by residents is probably larger than in Simiyu. The 3.9-times gap in output is therefore likely larger than the gap in household incomes, and household consumption is the figure that matters for living standards. The report has no household income, consumption or poverty series by region, so the gap in living standards cannot be measured from it. The National Bureau of Statistics household surveys are the right source for that and would be a natural complement to this analysis.
5.2 Market size and purchasing power
For market research, two numbers matter together: how many people, and how much output per person. The table and chart place each zone on both.
| Zone | People (m) | GDP (TZS tn) | Per person (TZS m) | Index | Market profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dar es Salaam | 5.9 | 39.8 | 6.78 | 191 | Premium urban market |
| Northern | 9.6 | 40.3 | 4.21 | 119 | Upper-middle, tourism-linked |
| Southern Highlands | 9.3 | 37.2 | 3.99 | 112 | Above-average, farm-surplus |
| South Eastern | 7.3 | 24.1 | 3.31 | 93 | Near-average, energy and ports |
| Lake | 21.1 | 61.0 | 2.89 | 82 | Largest volume, mass market with a Mwanza pocket |
| Central | 12.9 | 31.7 | 2.46 | 69 | Lowest output per person, farm and livestock |
Source: BoT Annexes 1 and 2; TICGL calc. The market profile is TICGL/TERI's reading.
Market Size vs Purchasing Power by Zone, 2025
Lake zone is the largest market by output (TZS 61 trillion) and by people (21.1 million) but at 82% of national output per person; Dar es Salaam is a market of 5.9 million people with 1.91 times the average output per person. The two require different offers: scale and price in Lake, depth and quality in Dar es Salaam.
5.3 Are people better off in real terms?
| Zone | Output per person growth 2025 (nominal) | Average inflation 2025/26 | Real growth (indicative) |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Eastern | +7.7% | 3.3% | +4.3% |
| Central | +7.2% | 3.0% | +4.1% |
| Northern | +7.0% | 2.9% | +4.0% |
| Lake | +7.5% | 3.6% | +3.7% |
| Southern Highlands | +8.0% | 4.7% | +3.2% |
| Dar es Salaam | +7.5% | 4.8% | +2.5% |
| Mainland | +7.4% | 3.6% | +3.7% |
Source: BoT Annexes 1-2 and Table 1.3; TICGL calc. Real growth = (1 + nominal growth) / (1 + average inflation) - 1. The output year is calendar 2025 and the inflation year is 2025/26, so the figures are indicative only.
Real Growth in Output Per Person, 2025 (Indicative)
In 2025 every zone had positive real growth in output per person, from 2.5% in Dar es Salaam to 4.3% in South Eastern. Dar es Salaam has the highest level but the lowest real growth, because its prices rose most; this is the only force in the data that narrows the gap, and it narrows it through higher prices in Dar es Salaam, not faster growth elsewhere.
5.4 Local public finance follows the same pattern
Local government authorities collected TZS 60,000 per person in own-source revenue in Dar es Salaam, against TZS 16,000 in Lake (3.7x) and TZS 18,000 in Central. The gap in local revenue per person is wider than the gap in output per person (3.7x against 2.3x for Lake) and it points the same way: the councils that serve the lowest-output people have the least own revenue to spend on them, which is the case for equalising transfers from the centre. South Eastern is the exception: at TZS 37,000 per person it is well above its output-per-person ranking.
Local Government Own-Source Revenue Per Person, 2025/26
5.5 Concentration of demand
Dar es Salaam has 8.9% of people and 17.0% of output. Its 5.9 million residents produce TZS 39.8 trillion, 1.49 times the TZS 26.7 trillion produced by the 13.6 million people in the five lowest regions (Simiyu, Kagera, Singida, Dodoma, Pwani), while the 14 regions below the average combined (36.6 million people) produce 39.8% of GDP. For firms, the largest market by population is not the largest by spending power, and the two overlap only in a few regional cities.
The numbers mean three things. First, the gap is mostly structural, set by where non-farm activity is booked, and it is not closing. Second, it overstates the gap in household living standards but cannot be corrected with this report. Third, it matters for decisions today: pricing and format for a Dar es Salaam consumer are different from those for a Simiyu or Kagera consumer, and regional public budgets start from very different revenue bases.
06 - Six-Month OutlookReal Growth Scenarios to March 2027, Watch-List, Policy and Market-Entry Screen
The structural gap cannot change in six months, and the Bank of Tanzania and NBS will not publish 2026 regional output per person until well after March 2027. What can change is real purchasing power, which depends on prices. This tab combines each zone's 2022-25 pace of growth in output per person with the three inflation scenarios from our zonal economy report (Relief, Base, Stress) to show what the next six months could do to real growth per person.
6.1 Real growth per person under three inflation paths
| Zone | Nominal growth per person (2022-25 CAGR) | Inflation Mar-27: Relief | Base | Stress | Real growth: Relief | Base | Stress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dar es Salaam | 6.1% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 7.9% | +2.9% | +0.6% | -1.6% |
| Northern | 6.0% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 6.2% | +4.4% | +2.1% | -0.2% |
| Southern Highlands | 5.9% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 6.7% | +3.9% | +1.5% | -0.7% |
| South Eastern | 5.6% | 0.1% | 2.4% | 4.7% | +5.5% | +3.1% | +0.9% |
| Lake | 5.5% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 5.8% | +4.3% | +2.0% | -0.3% |
| Central | 5.8% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 5.6% | +4.9% | +2.5% | +0.2% |
Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Annex 2 and the zonal CPI scenarios in "Tanzania's Economy by Zone, 2025/26", Tab 7 (flat, +0.25% and +0.5% a month from June 2026). Real growth = (1 + nominal) / (1 + inflation at March 2027) - 1. Indicative: it pairs an annual output growth rate with a year-on-year inflation rate at the end of the window.
Indicative Real Growth in Output Per Person by Zone, Three Inflation Paths
- Base case: real growth per person stays positive in every zone, from +0.6% in Dar es Salaam to +3.1% in South Eastern. Dar es Salaam is lowest because it has the highest inflation (5.5% by March 2027).
- Stress case: real growth per person turns negative in 4 of six zones (Dar es Salaam -1.6%, Southern Highlands -0.7%, Lake -0.3%, Northern -0.2%), which would mean falling real output per person in zones holding 69% of the mainland population.
- Relief case: every zone gains between about 2.9% and 5.5% in real terms, and the gap narrows slightly in real terms because Dar es Salaam's inflation is the highest in every scenario.
- What does not change: the nominal ratio of Dar es Salaam to Simiyu. At 2022-25 growth rates it moves from 3.89x to about 3.91x over six months (a rise of 0.03x), too small to measure.
6.2 What to watch
| Indicator | Latest | Reassuring signal | Stress signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zonal inflation, monthly | Southern Highlands 8.0%, Dar es Salaam 6.2%, Central 5.2% (Jun-26) | Base-case path: 4.4%, 5.5%, 3.2% by Mar-27 | Stress path keeps all three above 5% |
| Food prices and harvest | Central and Southern Highlands food output -8.8% and -11.3% | Recovery at harvest | A second poor season |
| Regional GDP for 2026 | Not published until after this window | Simiyu and Kagera continue to outgrow the average | Return to 2023-24 pace (about 2% a year in Simiyu) |
| Local-government revenue per person | TZS 60,000 in Dar es Salaam, 16,000 in Lake | Improving collection in low-revenue zones | Widening gap |
| Household income and poverty data by region | Not in the zonal report | NBS release | No data: the gap in living standards stays unmeasured |
Source: BoT zonal report and TICGL calc.
6.3 Policy options
- Add value where the output is produced. Processing, packaging and light manufacturing in the lower-output regions (cotton, grain, fish, timber) would put non-farm output where people live; 47.4% of factory output is in Dar es Salaam on 8.9% of the population.
- Spread connectivity and trade routes. 85.4% of port cargo passes through one port; secondary corridors and inland logistics hubs reduce the cost of locating outside Dar es Salaam.
- Equalise local public finance. Own-source revenue per person is 3.7 times higher in Dar es Salaam than in Lake; a transfer formula that weights output per person or population would reduce the starting gap between councils.
- Target the lowest regions by name. Simiyu, Kagera, Singida, Dodoma and Pwani hold 20.5% of people and 11.4% of output; regional programmes and investment incentives can be targeted by region, not by zone.
- Close the data gap. Publish household income, consumption and poverty by region, and a regional real-GDP series, so that the gap in living standards can be tracked.
- Bring finance closer. Deposits per person in Dar es Salaam are 26 times those in Southern Highlands (see our analysis of the regional credit gap); local deposit mobilisation and agent banking would let low-output regions retain more of their own savings.
6.4 What it means for investors and market-entry decisions
| Zone | People (m) | Per person (TZS m) | Index | Growth p.a. 2022-25 | Inflation Jun-26 | TICGL/TERI reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dar es Salaam | 5.9 | 6.78 | 191 | 6.1% | 6.2% | Premium urban market; highest costs and the highest inflation (6.2%); compete on quality and service. |
| Northern | 9.6 | 4.21 | 119 | 6.0% | 3.3% | Upper-middle market with tourism and hospitality links; balanced finance; above-average output per person. |
| Southern Highlands | 9.3 | 3.99 | 112 | 5.9% | 8.0% | Above-average output per person but the highest inflation (8.0%) and falling deposits; storage, milling and transport. |
| South Eastern | 7.3 | 3.31 | 93 | 5.6% | 2.6% | Lowest inflation (2.6%), energy and port growth; near-average output per person; consumer lending needs care. |
| Lake | 21.1 | 2.89 | 82 | 5.5% | 3.0% | Largest volume market (21.1 million people); price-sensitive with a Mwanza premium pocket; Simiyu, Kagera, Kigoma need low-cost formats. |
| Central | 12.9 | 2.46 | 69 | 5.8% | 5.2% | Lowest output per person; livestock, tobacco and Dodoma-linked demand; falling food output. |
Source: BoT Annexes 1-2, Annex 4; TICGL calc. The reading column is TICGL/TERI's interpretation, not a recommendation to invest.
Feasibility studies
- Demand sizing by region, not zone, using output per person, population and local revenue; price-point and format design for each tier of market.
- Financial models (NPV, IRR, DSCR) tested for inflation and consumer-spending shocks like the scenarios above.
Market entry advisory
- Region screening against the indicators in this report, entry-mode choice and partner identification, from first meeting to start-up.
- Matching offers to the market: volume formats for Lake, depth and service in Dar es Salaam.
Market research and economic intelligence
- Household surveys and price benchmarking in the lowest-output regions to fill the income gap the report leaves.
- Scenario updates with each Bank of Tanzania and NBS release, through TERI.
Talk to TICGL/TERI
Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call for a project in any region, or a briefing on this analysis.
What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →✉️ economist@ticgl.com07 - SourcesMethod & Source Note
Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Consolidated Zonal Economic Performance Report for the Quarter Ending June 2026, Vol. 11 No. 2: Tables 1.1-1.2 and Annexes 1-2 (regional GDP and GDP per person, 2019-2025p, from the National Bureau of Statistics), plus Tables 3.1, 4.3, 5.x, 6.1, 1.3 and Annex 4 for per-person indicators and inflation. TICGL calculations. People = GDP / GDP per person (for regions and, by summation, zones); ratios, shares and compound growth from published values; Gini and Theil measures weight regions by population; the convergence test is the correlation between the logarithm of 2022 output per person and annual growth 2022-25 across 26 regions; the catch-up arithmetic is (national average / region)^(1/N) x (1 + national growth) - 1; per-person structure indicators divide zone totals by implied population; real growth deflates nominal output growth by average inflation. Scenarios. Real growth = (1 + nominal growth at the 2022-25 zone pace) / (1 + zonal year-on-year inflation at March 2027 under the flat, +0.25% and +0.5% a month paths from our zonal economy report) - 1. Limits. Provisional data; population is re-based between 2021 and 2022, so trends are measured from 2022; GDP per person is not household income; the report has no regional sector, income or poverty data; zone averages hide differences between regions; mixing a calendar-2025 output year with a 2025/26 inflation year is indicative only.
- Bank of Tanzania, Consolidated Zonal Economic Performance Report, quarter ending June 2026 (Vol. 11 No. 2), Dodoma, 2026.
- National Bureau of Statistics: regional GDP and GDP per capita as reproduced in the report.
08 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How much higher is output per person in Dar es Salaam than in Simiyu?
In 2025 (provisional) output per person was TZS 6,776,483 in Dar es Salaam and TZS 1,742,809 in Simiyu, a ratio of 3.9. Simiyu is the lowest of the 26 mainland regions and has been in every year since 2019. The national average is TZS 3,544,124, so Dar es Salaam is 1.91 times the average and Simiyu is 49% of it.
Has the gap between Dar es Salaam and Simiyu narrowed?
Not materially. The ratio was 4.21 in 2019, 3.74 in 2022, 4.00 in 2024 and 3.89 in 2025, so it has stayed between 3.7 and 4.2 for seven years. Between 2022 and 2025 Simiyu grew 4.8% a year against 6.1% in Dar es Salaam and 5.7% nationally. Richer regions grew slightly faster than poorer ones, so there is no sign of convergence. Simiyu grew faster in 2025 (10.6% against 7.5%), but that is one year.
Is GDP per person the same as income per person?
No. It divides the value added produced in a region by its residents, and includes company profits, taxes and the pay of workers who live elsewhere. Dar es Salaam hosts headquarters, the port and government, so its figure likely overstates the gap in household income. The Bank of Tanzania zonal report has no household income, consumption or poverty data by region; NBS household surveys would fill that gap.
Why is Lake zone 18% below the national average?
Lake zone has 32.0% of mainland people but 26.1% of GDP, which puts its output per person at 82% of the national average. The zone is internally divided: Mwanza is at TZS 4.07 million, above the average, while Simiyu (1.74 million), Kagera (1.85 million) and Kigoma (2.30 million), with about 8.5 million people, are 35-51% below it. Lake also accounts for 69.3% of mineral recovery, so output per person is not simply a function of mining.
Which regions have the lowest output per person?
Simiyu (TZS 1.74 million), Kagera (1.85 million), Singida (1.99 million), Dodoma (2.11 million) and Pwani (2.16 million) are the five lowest. Together they have 20.5% of the mainland population and 11.4% of GDP. Fourteen of the 26 regions are below the national average and hold 55.4% of people.
What happens to the gap over the next six months, October 2026 to March 2027?
The structural gap will not change, and 2026 regional figures will not be published until after the window. What can change is real purchasing power. At the 2022-25 pace of growth and base-case inflation, real output per person grows in every zone, thinnest in Dar es Salaam (about +0.6%). Under a stress case with prices rising 0.5% a month it turns negative in Dar es Salaam, Southern Highlands, Lake and Northern.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Pato kwa kila mtu: Dar es Salaam na Simiyu. Kwa mujibu wa takwimu za NBS zilizomo kwenye Ripoti ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania ya Utendaji wa Kiuchumi wa Kanda (Juni 2026), pato kwa kila mtu mwaka 2025 lilikuwa shilingi milioni 6.78 Dar es Salaam na milioni 1.74 Simiyu, yaani mara 3.9. Simiyu imekuwa mkoa wa chini kuliko yote kila mwaka tangu 2019. Wastani wa nchi ni milioni 3.54.
Je, pengo linapungua? Hapana kwa kiasi kikubwa. Uwiano umebaki kati ya 3.7 na 4.2 kila mwaka tangu 2019. Mwaka 2022-2025 Simiyu ilikua asilimia 4.8 kwa mwaka, Dar es Salaam asilimia 6.1 na nchi asilimia 5.7. Mikoa tajiri ilikua kwa kasi kidogo zaidi kuliko maskini, kwa hiyo hakuna dalili ya kukaribiana. Kwa kasi ya sasa uwiano ungefikia takriban 4.4 baada ya miaka 10 na 5.0 baada ya miaka 20.
Kanda ya Ziwa: ina asilimia 32.0 ya watu lakini asilimia 26.1 ya pato, kwa hiyo pato kwa kila mtu ni asilimia 18 chini ya wastani. Ndani ya kanda tofauti ni kubwa: Mwanza (milioni 4.07) iko juu ya wastani, wakati Simiyu (1.74), Kagera (1.85) na Kigoma (2.30) ziko chini sana. Mikoa 14 kati ya 26 iko chini ya wastani na ina asilimia 55.4 ya watu.
Kwa nini pengo lipo? Dar es Salaam ina asilimia 47.4 ya uzalishaji wa viwanda, asilimia 62.8 ya amana za benki, asilimia 88.2 ya kodi na asilimia 85.4 ya shehena ya bandari, ikiwa na asilimia 8.9 tu ya watu. Kilimo pekee hakiinui pato kwa kila mtu: Nyanda za Juu Kusini zinazalisha kilo 757 za chakula kwa kila mtu (mara 2 ya wastani) lakini pato kwa kila mtu liko karibu na wastani. Dodoma, makao makuu, iko ya nne kutoka chini.
Maana yake: Pato kwa kila mtu si kipato cha kaya. Linajumuisha faida za kampuni, kodi na malipo ya wafanyakazi wanaoishi mahali pengine. Pengo la kipato halisi cha kaya huenda ni dogo kuliko mara 3.9, lakini ripoti haina takwimu za kipato au umaskini kwa mkoa. Mapato ya halmashauri kwa kila mtu ni mara 3.7 Dar es Salaam kuliko Ziwa, kwa hiyo halmashauri zinazohudumia watu wa pato la chini zina rasilimali kidogo.
Miezi sita ijayo (Oktoba 2026 - Machi 2027): Pengo la muundo halibadiliki. Kinachoweza kubadilika ni nguvu ya kununua. Kwa hali ya msingi ya mfumuko, ukuaji halisi kwa kila mtu unabaki chanya kila kanda, mdogo zaidi Dar es Salaam (takriban +0.6%). Mfumuko ukiongezeka kwa kasi ya Aprili-Juni, unakuwa hasi Dar es Salaam, Nyanda za Juu Kusini, Ziwa na Kaskazini.
Mapendekezo: (1) Kuongeza thamani mahali bidhaa zinapozalishwa; (2) kupanua njia za biashara nje ya bandari moja; (3) kugawa upya mapato kwa halmashauri kwa kuzingatia pato na idadi ya watu; (4) kulenga mikoa ya chini kwa majina (Simiyu, Kagera, Singida, Dodoma, Pwani); (5) kuchapisha kipato, matumizi na umaskini kwa mkoa; (6) kuleta huduma za fedha karibu na wananchi. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko kwa mkoa wowote.
Hitimisho: Pengo la mara 3.9 ni la muundo wa uchumi, si la bahati: shughuli zisizo za kilimo zinakusanyika Dar es Salaam, na mikoa ya chini haikaribii. Kulifunga kunahitaji kuongeza thamani ndani ya mikoa yenyewe, na kupima kipato cha kaya ili tujue pengo halisi la maisha.
- Pato kwa kila mtu 2025: Dar es Salaam TZS milioni 6.78 · Simiyu milioni 1.74 · wastani milioni 3.54
- Uwiano Dar es Salaam / Simiyu: 3.74 hadi 4.21 kila mwaka 2019-2025
- Kanda ya Ziwa: watu 32.0% · pato 26.1% · pato kwa kila mtu 18% chini ya wastani
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Ripoti ya Utendaji wa Kiuchumi wa Kanda (Juni 2026); NBS; TERI/TICGL, Oktoba 2026. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.