The introduction of new US reciprocal tariffs in 2025, often referred to as Trump tariffs, is reshaping global trade patterns, creating mixed impacts for Africa and Tanzania. According to the WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025, Africa’s merchandise exports are expected to grow by +0.6% in 2025, slightly higher than previous forecasts, as US buyers seek new suppliers outside China. Least-developed countries, including Tanzania, are projected to benefit from this trade diversion, with export growth for LDCs rising to +4.8%. However, Africa’s services exports, which include key sectors like transport and tourism, are expected to contract by -1.6%, reversing earlier positive expectations. For Tanzania, opportunities lie in expanding agricultural, textile, and gold exports, but risks remain in its tourism and logistics sectors. Despite these challenges, Africa's overall GDP impact is minimal, with projected growth hovering around 0.0% change, reflecting resilience but also vulnerability to further global trade uncertainties.
Key Opportunity for Tanzania:
New US demand for textiles, agricultural products, and electronics substitutes from African countries could support +4% to +5% export growth if leveraged well.
| Rank | Country | Key Outlook 2025 | Notes |
| 1 | South Africa | Moderate growth in minerals and vehicles. | But global demand uncertainty remains. |
| 2 | Nigeria | Oil exports to remain strong. | Services weak (-1.6%). |
| 3 | Egypt | Agriculture and manufactured exports grow slowly. | Stronger imports expected. |
| 4 | Morocco | Moderate rise in automotive and agriculture. | Services vulnerable. |
| 5 | Kenya | Steady exports in tea, flowers, tech services. | Exposed to global demand dips. |
| 6 | Ghana | Gold exports supportive; cocoa weaker. | Services exports affected. |
| 7 | Ethiopia | Recovery in coffee and horticulture exports. | Trade hindered by logistics. |
| 8 | Algeria | Gas exports supportive, non-oil weak. | Services imports rise. |
| 9 | Angola | Oil-dependent exports vulnerable. | Non-oil sector growth is slow. |
| 10 | Côte d'Ivoire | Cocoa and rubber exports stable. | Moderate services outlook. |
Note: Rankings based on 2024 export size and WTO forecasts.
Quick Figure Highlights:
"Africa’s trade will show mixed results in 2025, with strong import growth but only modest export recovery. Tanzania could benefit from shifts in global trade, but services exports will remain vulnerable."
| Area | Impact | Details and Figures |
| Africa’s Merchandise Exports (2025) | Slight positive to neutral | Exports grow +0.6% adjusted (instead of +0.5%), helped by demand for new suppliers. |
| Africa’s Merchandise Imports (2025) | Strong growth | Imports rise +6.5%, showing stronger domestic demand. |
| Africa’s Services Exports (2025) | Negative | Services exports fall by -1.6% instead of growing. |
| Africa’s GDP Growth | Minimal slowdown | Small impact: GDP growth slightly flat (~0.0% change). |
| Regional Winners | Some LDCs | Least-developed African countries may increase exports by +4.8%. |
Short Conclusion:
"Trump tariffs could offer Tanzania a chance to expand goods exports, especially to the US, but services like tourism and shipping face a slowdown. Overall, Africa will see modest export gains but services sector pain."