Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. The creditor table excludes liquidity papers. Year-on-year changes use Table 2.6.6 (Sep-25: TZS 37,459.0bn); the long-run series (Chart 2.6.1) shows TZS 37,819.1bn for Sep-25, a small definitional difference. Sep-26 data are provisional.
00 — Overview & VerdictA Domestic Debt Market Anchored by Banks and Pensions, With the Margin Moving to "Others"
Concentration: commercial banks (TZS 11,703.1bn) and pension funds (TZS 11,256.1bn) hold 55.8% of the stock. Adding the Bank of Tanzania (17.4%) and its special funds (2.1%), 75.3% sits with the financial and monetary system.
Growth: debt rose TZS 3,654.5bn (+9.8%) in a year. "Others" contributed 28.1% of the increase, pension funds 26.7% and commercial banks 26.0%; the BoT's holdings grew slowest (+6.1%).
Structure: 89.6% is government securities, of which bonds are 84.6%; the remaining 10.4% is the BoT overdraft. Domestic debt service in September was TZS 556.4bn (interest TZS 305.6bn).
Government Domestic Debt Stock
Domestic Debt by Creditor, Sep-26
01 — By CreditorHoldings, Shares and Who Drove the Increase
Holdings by Creditor: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Growth by Creditor, y/y
Creditor Shares of the Stock
| TZS billion | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Share | Change y/y | % of increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial banks | 10,752.0 | 11,599.3 | 11,703.1 | 28.5% | +951.1 | 26.0% |
| Pension funds | 10,282.0 | 11,292.5 | 11,256.1 | 27.4% | +974.1 | 26.7% |
| Bank of Tanzania | 6,750.9 | 7,054.9 | 7,163.8 | 17.4% | +412.9 | 11.3% |
| Insurance | 1,825.1 | 2,050.4 | 2,030.1 | 4.9% | +205.0 | 5.6% |
| BoT special funds | 780.5 | 867.6 | 865.1 | 2.1% | +84.6 | 2.3% |
| Others | 7,068.6 | 8,034.7 | 8,095.4 | 19.7% | +1,026.8 | 28.1% |
| Domestic debt stock | 37,459.0 | 40,899.5 | 41,113.5 | 100% | +3,654.5 | 100% |
Table 1.1. Source: BoT, Table 2.6.6 (excluding liquidity papers); change, growth and contributions TICGL calc. "Others" include public institutions, private companies, individuals and non-residents.
Shares have barely moved (banks 28.7% to 28.5%, BoT 18.0% to 17.4%), but "others" gained 0.8pp to 19.7%. Foreign investors gained access to Government securities on 17 July 2026; BoT does not split non-residents out, so their role in this rise cannot be confirmed from these data.
02 — Instruments & CostLong Bonds Dominate; Yields Have Fallen Along the Curve
Domestic Debt by Instrument
Treasury Bond Yield Curve
Government Securities Issued for Financing
| TZS billion | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government securities | 32,498.5 | 36,722.5 | 36,827.7 | 89.6% |
| Government bonds | 30,304.0 | 34,793.4 | 34,795.6 | 84.6% |
| Treasury bills | 2,058.7 | 1,793.4 | 1,896.4 | 4.6% |
| Government stocks | 135.8 | 135.7 | 135.7 | 0.3% |
| Non-securitized debt (overdraft) | 4,960.5 | 4,176.9 | 4,285.8 | 10.4% |
| Domestic debt stock | 37,459.0 | 40,899.5 | 41,113.5 | 100% |
Table 2.1. Source: BoT, Table 2.6.5 (tax certificates TZS 0.1bn and other liabilities not shown separately).
- September financing: TZS 356bn raised (TZS 178bn bonds, TZS 178bn 364-day bills); domestic debt service TZS 556.4bn (principal TZS 250.8bn, interest TZS 305.6bn).
- Yields, Sep-26: 5-year 9.53%, 10-year 10.69%, 15-year 10.79%, 25-year 11.48%; overall T-bill 4.85%.
- Implied cost: FY2026/27 budgeted domestic interest of TZS 4,030.3bn is about 9.8% of the stock (TICGL calc.); July domestic interest was TZS 383.8bn, nearly double its estimate.
- Overdraft: the BoT overdraft fell from TZS 4,942.1bn to 4,285.8bn (−13.3%) in a year.
With bonds at 84.6% and yields of 9–11.5% for most maturities against 4.85% on bills, the bulk of the stock locks in high coupons. Lower yields at the 2- and 5-year points (8.40%, 9.53%, down from 12.17%, 12.48%) reduce rollover cost, but the 15-year yield rose to 10.79%.
03 — Trend & Crowding-OutDebt Growth Slows While Private Credit Accelerates
Annual Growth of Domestic Debt
Government Debt vs Private Credit Growth
| Indicator | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic debt (TZS bn) | 37,459.0 | 41,113.5 | +9.8% |
| Domestic debt (USD M) | 15,407.9 | 15,560.0 | +1.0% in dollars: shilling depreciation absorbs the growth |
| Private sector credit (TZS bn) | 41,999.9 | 56,359.4 | +34.2% |
| Banks' government debt ÷ private credit | 25.6% | 20.8% | Falling (TICGL calc.) |
| Securities held by banks (TZS bn) | 8,723.1 | 12,056.9 | +38.2% (broader BoT definition) |
Table 3.1. Source: BoT, Tables 2.2.1, 2.6.6 and A10; ratios TICGL calc. Securities held by banks is a different series from the creditor-table claim.
Over the long run, domestic debt grew 2.7 times since September 2020 (about 17.9% a year). The latest year is the slowest since 2021, and banks' holdings per unit of private credit fell to 20.8%, so private lending, not government paper, absorbed most of bank balance sheet growth. The BoT's broader securities series, however, grew 38.2%, so the picture depends on definition.
04 — Risk & CalculatorRollover, Concentration and Cost
- Concentration risk: 55.8% with banks and pension funds means government borrowing competes with credit to business and with long-term investment by pension funds.
- Rollover: the FY2026/27 budget shows TZS 3,285.4bn of borrowing and roll-over matched by equal domestic amortization.
- July operations: net bank financing was −TZS 1,864.5bn (repayment) and non-bank +TZS 283.5bn, funded by program loans.
- Opening to foreign investors (July 2026) could widen the creditor base and reduce yields, but adds exchange-rate exposure for investors and capital-flow risk.
Domestic interest cost calculator
Defaults: Sep-26 stock; average cost 9.8% (budgeted FY26/27 domestic interest ÷ stock); +1pp shock on the share repricing within the year (the 20% share is an illustrative assumption, not a BoT figure).
Domestic debt is a bank-and-pension market with a long-bond bias. The priorities are to widen the investor base carefully, lengthen maturity at falling yields, and keep government borrowing from squeezing private credit and pension returns.
How TICGL and TERI can help
TICGL/TERI supports debt-market analysis, pension and bank portfolio studies, PPP structuring and capital-market development. Contact economist@ticgl.com.
05 — Sources & Data NotesMethod and Definitions
Source. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.2.1, 2.6.5, 2.6.6, A2, A4, A10; Charts 2.6.1, 2.6.2) with Ministry of Finance data. Calculations. Growth, contributions, ratios, the implied cost (budgeted domestic interest ÷ stock, a rough proxy) and the calculator are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. The creditor table covers debt excluding liquidity papers; "others" includes public institutions, private companies, individuals and non-residents. Domestic debt in USD uses BoT's A10 series. Provisional data may be revised.
06 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How large is Tanzania's domestic debt?
TZS 41,113.5 billion at end-September 2026, up from TZS 40,899.5 billion in August and TZS 37,459.0 billion in September 2025 (+9.8%), on the creditor-table basis.
Who holds Tanzania's domestic debt?
Commercial banks hold 28.5% (TZS 11,703.1 billion), pension funds 27.4%, the Bank of Tanzania 17.4%, insurers 4.9%, BoT special funds 2.1% and others 19.7%.
Which creditor category grew fastest?
Others, which include public institutions, private companies, individuals and non-residents, grew 14.5% to TZS 8,095.4 billion, followed by insurers at 11.2% and BoT special funds at 10.8%.
What instruments make up domestic debt?
Government bonds are 84.6% of the stock, overdraft 10.4%, Treasury bills 4.6% and government stocks 0.3%.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Deni la ndani la Serikali kwa makundi ya wakopeshaji, Septemba 2026: deni la ndani ni TZS bilioni 41,113.5 (ongezeko la asilimia 9.8 kwa mwaka).
Wakopeshaji: benki za biashara asilimia 28.5 (TZS bilioni 11,703.1), mifuko ya pensheni asilimia 27.4 (bilioni 11,256.1), Benki Kuu asilimia 17.4 (bilioni 7,163.8), bima asilimia 4.9, mifuko maalum ya BoT asilimia 2.1 na wengine asilimia 19.7. Benki na mifuko ya pensheni kwa pamoja zinashikilia zaidi ya nusu (asilimia 55.8).
Ukuaji: kundi la "wengine" (taasisi za umma, kampuni, watu binafsi na wasio wakazi) lilikua kwa kasi zaidi (asilimia 14.5) na lilichangia asilimia 28.1 ya ongezeko; hisa za Benki Kuu zilikua polepole zaidi (asilimia 6.1).
Hati: hati fungani ni asilimia 84.6 ya deni, overdraft asilimia 10.4, hati za Hazina asilimia 4.6. Mapato ya hati fungani za miaka 5 na 10 yameshuka hadi asilimia 9.53 na 10.69. Mikopo ya sekta binafsi imekua asilimia 34.2, haraka kuliko deni la Serikali lililoshikiliwa na benki.
Mapendekezo: kupanua wigo wa wawekezaji kwa tahadhari, kurefusha ukomavu wa deni wakati mapato ya hati fungani yanashuka, na kuzuia ukopaji wa Serikali usibane mikopo ya sekta binafsi.
Chanzo: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Wasiliana: economist@ticgl.com.