Navigating Post-Election Challenges with TISEZA, TRA, PPPC, and SOE Reforms Under President Samia Suluhu Hassan's Sixth Phase

Tanzania's Sixth Phase Government, led by President Samia Suluhu Hassan following her re-election in October 2025, spans a pivotal 2025-2030 period. This aligns with the CCM's 2025-2030 manifesto, emphasizing accelerated GDP growth from 5.6% in 2025 to over 7% by 2030 through investments in agriculture (targeting 10% growth via irrigation), tourism (aiming for >10% GDP contribution), manufacturing (9% annual expansion), and mining reforms. With the population on track to reach 114 million by 2050, the focus is on creating 10 million jobs, enhancing infrastructure, and achieving a $1 trillion economy by mid-century. However, post-election unrest has introduced uncertainties, as President Samia noted in her November 18, 2025, parliamentary address, where she described the violence as having "stained" Tanzania's global image, potentially restricting access to international loans and funding. She urged a shift toward domestic resources and announced an investigation into the protests, which claimed hundreds of lives and led to curfews and arrests.

Institutions like TISEZA, TRA, PPPC, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are key to resilience. This research examines their roles, the economic fallout from the political "stain," and mitigation strategies.

The Political "Stain": How Post-Election Unrest Could Impact Tanzania's Economy

The 2025 election protests, marked by violence, internet shutdowns, and curfews, have disrupted Tanzania's image of stability, drawing rebukes from the African Union and international observers. President Samia highlighted risks to foreign funding, stating, "We have to look for funds internally using our God-given resources." Economic analyses indicate multifaceted impacts:

• Short-Term Disruptions: Curfews and unrest caused a 20-30% drop in tourism bookings for November-December 2025, equating to $100 million in losses, with flight suspensions affecting key sites like Kilimanjaro. Trade halted at borders like Namanga, leading to 15% export price hikes and supply chain bottlenecks, impacting agriculture (5-7% potential harvest reduction in 2026) and causing 10,000 job losses in Arusha. The Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange dropped 4.2%, with $150 million in foreign outflows, and the shilling depreciated 3% to TZS 2,750 per USD, raising import costs. Mining operations slowed, and overall Q4 2025 GDP faces a 0.5-1.0% drag.
• Long-Term Risks: FDI could decline 15-25% from baselines, dropping below $1 billion annually in pessimistic scenarios, delaying projects like the $30 billion LNG initiative and $2 billion railway extension. GDP growth might slow to 2-3% annually (pessimistic), with inflation at 6%, 10-15% SME closures, and reduced business confidence (B-READY score potentially falling to 60-63/100). Regional trade suffers, with East African companies like KCB reporting losses, and entrepreneurs remaining cautious.

These effects compound fiscal pressures, potentially increasing reliance on domestic revenue while eroding investor trust.

TISEZA: Boosting Investments Amid Uncertainty

TISEZA, launched in July 2025, registered 201 projects worth $2.54 billion in Q1 FY 2025/26, creating 20,808 jobs. Awarded the WAIPA Investment Excellence Award in October 2025, it targets $15-20 billion annual FDI by 2030, focusing on SEZs in manufacturing and agro-processing to generate 5 million jobs. To counter the "stain," TISEZA can enhance digital approvals and rural incentives, boosting exports 20% annually.

TRA: Enhancing Domestic Revenue for Stability

TRA collected TZS 32.26 trillion in 2024/25 (103% of target) and TZS 8.97 trillion in Q1 2025/26. Targeting TZS 36 trillion in 2025/26 and an 18-20% tax-to-GDP ratio by 2030, TRA's digital compliance (aiming for 95%) will fund 60% of the budget, allocating 20% to education/health and reducing loan dependency.

PPPC: Accelerating Infrastructure Through Partnerships

With 84 PPP projects as of November 2025 (worth >$12 billion), PPPC targets 50 annually, securing $15-20 billion by 2030 for transport, energy, and agriculture. This supports tourism (8 million visitors by 2030) and irrigation expansion, mitigating unrest's infrastructure delays.

SOE Corporatization: Fostering Efficiency and Sustainability

SOEs like TANESCO, TTCL, and DAWASA/DAWASCO have reduced losses 40-60% via reforms, yielding TZS 1.028 trillion dividends in 2024/25. President Samia urges subsidy elimination through corporatization—independent boards (60% external), performance pay, and hard budgets—drawing from Singapore and China models. By 2030, this could save TZS 500-700 billion annually.

Synergistic Strategies and Mitigation Measures

To address the political stain, integrate institutions: TISEZA-TRA FDI-tax links; PPPC-SOE partnerships; digital reforms for 95% efficiency.

What Should Be Done: Implement electoral reforms for transparency; launch a $36-72 million "Tanzania Forward" PR campaign; diversify with 10% mining royalties to non-extractives; offer SME incentives (TZS 50 billion funds); mitigate risks via insurance and supply diversification; seek AU/IMF support ($1-2 billion). These can restore confidence, limit FDI loss to 10%, and achieve optimistic 6-7% growth.

Conclusion

Under President Samia's Sixth Phase, TISEZA, TRA, PPPC, and corporatized SOEs can drive 7%+ GDP growth despite the political stain's risks. By scaling FDI to $100 billion cumulative, revenue to TZS 60 trillion, PPPs to $50 billion, and SOE profitability, Tanzania can create 10 million jobs and build resilience. Swift mitigations—reforms, PR, and diversification—will turn challenges into opportunities for a #FutureReadyTanzania, rebuilding global trust toward Vision 2050.

Moving forward, it is imperative that restructuring of these key institutions, particularly SOEs, be prioritized as a non-negotiable step to ensure long-term economic stability. As outlined in the TICGL research paper, SOEs like TANESCO, TTCL, and DAWASA/DAWASCO have historically drained public finances through ongoing losses and subsidy dependence, contributing to fiscal deficits. The study emphasizes that partial reforms since 2020—such as performance contracts and board restructuring—have reduced annual losses by 40-60% and achieved record dividends of TZS 1.028 trillion in 2024/25, but sustained profitability remains elusive without full corporatization.

sThis involves adopting private-sector governance models, including legal reclassification under the Companies Act, appointing at least 60% independent directors, implementing performance-based executive remuneration, and establishing a professionally managed SOE holding company. These eight policy recommendations, grounded in Agency Theory, Public Choice Theory, and successful international models (e.g., Singapore's Temasek Holdings and China's gradual reforms), are politically and practically feasible, favoring full corporatization over hybridization or privatization to transform SOEs into efficient, financially sustainable entities that positively contribute to national development goals.

However, to exit the current economic and political impasse without adversely impacting individual livelihoods or the national economy, a comprehensive, phased plan must be developed and implemented.

This plan should focus on minimizing disruptions while maximizing inclusive benefits:

1. Phased Implementation (2025-2027): Begin with pilot reforms in select SOEs (e.g., energy and telecoms), rolling out governance changes gradually to allow for adjustments. This avoids sudden shocks, as seen in past rapid privatizations that led to job losses.
2. Stakeholder Engagement and Social Safety Nets: Involve unions, employees, and communities in consultations to build buy-in. Establish retraining programs for affected workers, funded by a TZS 200-300 billion transitional fund from TRA revenues, to reskill 50,000-100,000 employees annually for emerging sectors like manufacturing and digital services. Provide severance packages and microfinance support for SMEs to cushion individual economic impacts.
3. Economic Diversification and Risk Mitigation: Integrate SOE reforms with TISEZA's FDI targets and PPPC's infrastructure projects to create alternative jobs (e.g., 2-3 million in SEZs by 2028). Diversify revenue streams by empowering SOEs to invest abroad and compete internationally, as directed by President Samia in her November 14, 2025, parliamentary address, aiming for SOEs to contribute 10% of non-tax revenue by 2030.
4. Monitoring and Evaluation Framework: Set up an independent oversight body under the Office of the Treasury Registrar (OTR) to track progress quarterly, using key performance indicators like return on assets (>5% by 2028) and subsidy reduction (zero by 2030). This ensures reforms enhance service delivery without inflating costs for citizens, maintaining affordability in utilities while boosting national fiscal space for social programs.
5. Fiscal Safeguards for the Nation: Align reforms with TRA's tax base expansion to offset any short-term revenue dips, while leveraging PPPs to share infrastructure burdens. This holistic approach, estimated to save TZS 500-700 billion annually in subsidies by 2030, will protect the national economy from further deficits and foster equitable growth, ensuring no individual or the taifa as a whole bears undue hardship.