Tanzania’s National Debt and Shilling Stability – Mid-2025
September 7, 2025
As of June/July 2025, Tanzania’s national debt reached approximately TZS 115.0 trillion, up 1% from the previous month, with external debt (TZS 81.0 trillion, 70.7%) dominating over domestic debt (TZS 34.0 trillion, 29.3%). The bulk of external borrowing is owed by the central government (85.4%), largely to multilateral institutions (58.7%) and commercial lenders (34.8%), while […]
As of June/July 2025, Tanzania’s national debt reached approximately TZS 115.0 trillion, up 1% from the previous month, with external debt (TZS 81.0 trillion, 70.7%) dominating over domestic debt (TZS 34.0 trillion, 29.3%). The bulk of external borrowing is owed by the central government (85.4%), largely to multilateral institutions (58.7%) and commercial lenders (34.8%), while domestic debt remains concentrated in Treasury bonds (79.7%) held mainly by commercial banks and pension funds. Despite rising obligations, debt levels remain manageable, supported by strong tax performance and a June fiscal surplus. On the currency front, the Tanzania Shilling averaged TZS 2,666.79 per USD in July 2025, a 1.3% monthly depreciation but only a 0.11% annual decline, underscoring relative stability. This resilience is underpinned by robust foreign reserves (USD 6.2 billion, equivalent to ~TZS 16.5 trillion, covering five months of imports), strong export inflows (gold and tourism), and timely BoT interventions, which together cushion external risks while sustaining investor confidence.
Other creditors (public institutions, companies, individuals): 18.3%
Insurance Companies: 5.1%
BoT Special Funds: 2.2%
Table: Tanzania National Debt (June/July 2025)
Category
Amount (USD Million / TZS Billion)
Share (%)
Total National Debt
USD 46,586.6m
100
External Debt
USD 32,955.5m
70.7
├─ Central Government
USD 28,133.7m
85.4*
├─ Private Sector
USD 4,820.6m
14.6*
└─ Public Corporations
USD 1.3m
0.0*
Domestic Debt
TZS 35,351.4b (~USD 13,631m)
29.3
├─ Treasury Bonds
TZS 28,189.8b (79.7%)
—
├─ Treasury Bills
TZS 2,016.9b (5.7%)
—
├─ Other (Overdraft, etc.)
TZS 5,008.9b (14.2%)
—
*Percentages within external debt.
2. Tanzania Shilling (TZS) – Stability and Performance
Exchange Rate (July 2025):
Averaged TZS 2,666.79 per USD, compared to TZS 2,631.56 per USD in June 2025.
This is a monthly depreciation of about 1.3%.
Annual Movement:
Shilling depreciated at an annual rate of 0.11%, compared to 0.21% in June 2025.
Shows relative stability year-on-year.
Reserves:
FX reserves stood at USD 6,194.4m at end-July 2025, enough to cover 5 months of imports, meeting EAC and SADC benchmarks.
Drivers of Stability:
Export inflows (gold, cashew, cereals, tourism).
BoT interventions (USD 17.5m sold in July 2025).
High reserves acting as a buffer against shocks.
Economic Implications of Tanzania’s National Debt and Shilling Performance – June/July 2025
1. Tanzania National Debt (June/July 2025)
Total National Debt: Reached USD 46,586.6 million by June 2025, up 1% from the previous month, with 70.7% (USD 32,955.5 million) as external debt and 29.3% (TZS 35,351.4 billion, ~USD 13,631 million) as domestic debt.
External Debt:
Stock at USD 32,955.5 million, with 85.4% owed by the central government (USD 28,133.7 million), 14.6% by the private sector (USD 4,820.6 million), and a negligible 0.0% by public corporations (USD 1.3 million).
Domestic Debt: TZS 35,351.4 billion, with 79.7% in Treasury bonds, 5.7% in Treasury bills, 0.4% in government stocks, and 14.2% in non-securitized debt (e.g., overdrafts). Creditors are led by commercial banks (28.8%), pension funds (26.4%), Bank of Tanzania (19.2%), other creditors (18.3%), insurance companies (5.1%), and BoT special funds (2.2%).
Economic Implications:
The 1% debt increase reflects ongoing financing needs, with external debt’s 70.7% share (USD 32,955.5 million) highlighting reliance on foreign capital, manageable at ~40% of GDP per IMF estimates. Multilateral loans (58.7%) offer concessional terms, reducing interest burdens, but commercial debt’s 34.8% share (USD 11,458.3 million) exposes Tanzania to market volatility and higher costs (e.g., global rates at 2.8% per IMF 2025 forecast).
Domestic debt’s stability (TZS 35,351.4 billion, down 0.4% from June) and bond dominance (79.7%) indicate strong local absorption by banks and pension funds (55.2% combined), supporting fiscal operations (TZS 403.4 billion surplus in June). However, the 14.2% non-securitized portion (overdrafts) suggests short-term liquidity pressures.
Risks include a moderate debt distress risk (World Bank), with 68.9% of external debt USD-denominated, amplifying costs if the shilling weakens further. Opportunities lie in leveraging multilateral support for infrastructure (e.g., SGR, USD 7.6 billion) to boost 6% GDP growth.
2. Tanzania Shilling (TZS) – Stability and Performance
Exchange Rate: Averaged TZS 2,666.79 per USD in July 2025, a 1.3% monthly depreciation from TZS 2,631.56 in June, but an annual depreciation of just 0.11% (down from 0.21% in June), indicating year-on-year stability.
Reserves: Foreign exchange reserves hit USD 6,194.4 million, covering 5 months of imports, exceeding EAC/SADC benchmarks (4 months).
Drivers: Stability is fueled by export inflows (gold USD 3,977.6 million, tourism USD 3,871.9 million), BoT interventions (USD 17.5 million sold in July), and robust reserves.
Economic Meaning:
The 1.3% monthly depreciation reflects seasonal import pressures (USD 17,603.1 million) and USD demand for debt servicing (USD 234.4 million in June), yet the 0.11% annual rate underscores stability, supported by a 17.7% export rise (gold +21.9%, cereals tripled). Reserves (USD 6,194.4 million) provide a strong buffer, enhancing investor confidence (Fitch B+ rating).
BoT’s active management (e.g., USD 62.3 million sold in March) and export growth (USD 9,479.4 million) counter depreciation, aligning with a 6% GDP projection. However, 70% USD-denominated external debt poses a risk if depreciation accelerates, potentially raising debt servicing costs by TZS 1-2 trillion annually.
Compared to 2023’s 8% depreciation, the current stability (0.11% annual) reflects policy success (CBR 5.75%), though import reliance and global rate hikes could challenge this if export growth slows.
Summary of Broader Economic Significance
Debt Dynamics: The USD 46,586.6 million debt, with a balanced external-domestic mix, supports growth (6%) but requires cautious management to avoid distress, especially with commercial debt exposure (34.8%).
Shilling Resilience: The shilling’s stability (0.11% annual depreciation) and reserves (5 months cover) bolster trade and investment, though USD debt sensitivity remains a vulnerability.
Outlook: Sustained export growth and reserve strength could mitigate risks, but fiscal discipline and import control are key to maintaining this trajectory amid global uncertainties (e.g., oil at USD 69.2/barrel).
