Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania or the Government. Historical figures are taken from the Bank of Tanzania Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report for 12-16 October 2026; where TICGL/TERI computes a figure it is marked "TICGL calc." The four-week outlook (Tab 6) is a set of arithmetic scenarios built on that data, not a forecast of record or a trading recommendation. Currency, rate and yield levels move daily: check live data before any transaction.
00 — OverviewExecutive Summary
Three things defined the week to 16 October 2026. First, the exchange rate barely moved even though customer demand for foreign currency and supply of it both surged: retail turnover reached USD 604.89 million (+13.3%), and banks bought far more dollars from customers than they sold, a net inflow of USD 121.35 million against a net outflow of USD 63.94 million a week earlier (TICGL calc.). Second, the central bank leaned against tight liquidity: it injected TZS 892.50 billion through 7-day reverse repo, 3.5 times the previous week, and the interbank rate stayed 16 basis points above the policy rate on a weekly average. Third, the long end of the Treasury market rallied: the 25-year bond No. 722 attracted a bid-to-cover ratio of 6.02x and cleared at a weighted average yield of 10.84%, 64 basis points below the previous 25-year auction.
Week-on-Week Scorecard: What Moved Most?
Monthly Retail FX Turnover, January 2024 - October 2026
Key findings
- A stable shilling over a busy market. The mean rate moved from TZS 2,631.36 to TZS 2,633.12 per dollar. All nine currencies in the Bank's table gained on the shilling, from +0.02% (Rwandan franc) to +1.88% (Indian rupee), so the weakness is broad but small.
- Interbank trading thinned, retail trading boomed. IFEM turnover fell 11.7% to USD 19.70 million, but only four sessions were recorded, so the daily average actually rose from USD 4.46 million to USD 4.93 million (TICGL calc.). Retail turnover grew 13.3% and equals about 31 times interbank turnover.
- Commodity sectors supplied the dollars. Mining (net +USD 57.36 m) and agriculture (net +USD 52.47 m) were the largest net sellers of foreign exchange to banks; oil and energy (net -USD 49.33 m) and manufacturing (-USD 17.70 m) were the largest net buyers (TICGL calc., reading "purchases" as dollars bought by banks).
- 2026 is already a record year for retail FX. Turnover for January-September 2026 is USD 19.6 billion, 111.8% of the whole of 2025 (USD 17.5 billion) and 64.0% above January-September 2025 (TICGL calc. from Chart 4).
- Liquidity support was large. The Bank injected TZS 892.50 billion, more than the entire week's 7-day interbank volume of TZS 812.65 billion, and the weekly interbank rate averaged 6.41% against the 6.25% CBR.
- The bond investor base is institutional. Banks (34.17%) and pension funds (29.76%) hold 63.9% of the TZS 34,015.15 billion outstanding; banks took 56.25% of the 25-year allotment while brokers, with 24.4% of subscriptions, received only 1.43%.
- The long end is rallying. The 25-year yield fell from 11.48% to 10.84%, leaving only 15 bps between the 10-year (10.69%) and 25-year (10.84%) auction yields, a flat long end against a 116 bps climb from 5 to 10 years.
- Market access is widening. Registered securities clients reached 35,102, with 3,600 joining in the current fiscal year alone (10.3% of all clients).
Our central scenario is a shilling that keeps drifting at the latest pace of 0.07% a week, reaching about TZS 2,640 by 13 November 2026 (range TZS 2,623 to TZS 2,660), supported by mining and agricultural dollar inflows that should still be strong in the October-December export season. Interbank rates should stay in the upper half of the 4.75-7.75% corridor while reverse repo support is large, and long-dated Treasury yields have room to stay near 10.8% if demand at the 6x level persists. The 21 October Treasury bill auction is the next test. The main swing factors are oil-import dollar demand, the pace of liquidity injections, and whether the 25-year result repeats at the next long-bond auction. Scenarios and tables are in Tab 6 and the risk register in Tab 7.
Percentage changes in Table 1 of the Bank's report are rounded from two-decimal rates, so small currencies (Ugandan shilling, Rwandan franc) show larger percentage changes than the displayed levels imply. The Bank describes the shilling as "depreciating slightly (up 0.07%)": we treat that as a 0.07% weaker shilling. The report does not define "purchases" and "sales" in the retail FX table; TICGL reads them as dollars bought from and sold to customers by banks. Fiscal-year labels in Chart 9, numeric values for Chart 5 (retail moving average) and Chart 10 (yield curve) are not in the text of the report, so those series are summarised rather than reproduced. October 2026 monthly figures are part-month. Table 4 prints "Banks" twice (rows 1 and 6); we show both lines as printed.
01 — Shilling & Interbank FXExchange Rates, Cross Rates and the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market
The Bank of Tanzania's official indicative mean rate for the US dollar closed the week at TZS 2,633.12, compared with TZS 2,631.36 at the close of the previous week, a weekly move of TZS 1.76 or 0.07%. The weekly change is small by any standard. What is more informative is that foreign currencies rose against the shilling across the whole table, which means the shilling lost a little ground against everyone, not just against a stronger dollar.
| Currency (TZS per unit) | 9-Oct-26 | 16-Oct-26 | Change (TZS) | Change (%) as reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Dollar | 2,631.36 | 2,633.12 | +1.76 | +0.07 |
| British Pound Sterling | 3,476.29 | 3,487.83 | +11.54 | +0.33 |
| Euro | 2,944.49 | 2,950.67 | +6.18 | +0.21 |
| Chinese Yuan (Renminbi) | 392.59 | 393.52 | +0.93 | +0.24 |
| Indian Rupee | 27.19 | 27.70 | +0.51 | +1.88 |
| Japanese Yen | 16.63 | 16.67 | +0.04 | +0.23 |
| Kenyan Shilling | 20.25 | 20.25 | 0.00 | +0.03 |
| Ugandan Shilling | 0.64 | 0.65 | +0.01 | +0.93 |
| Rwandan Franc | 1.78 | 1.78 | 0.00 | +0.02 |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 1. TZS change is TICGL calc. from the published rates; percentage changes are as published (computed by the Bank on unrounded rates).
Weekly Change Against the Shilling, by Currency
Interbank FX Turnover by Day: Two Weeks
1.1 Implied cross rates: the dollar was softer, the shilling was softer still
Dividing the published TZS rates gives the cross rates among the major currencies. The euro and sterling gained about 0.14% and 0.26% against the dollar over the week, while the yen and renminbi gained about 0.17% each (dollar-yen and dollar-yuan lower). Because the shilling lost 0.07% to the dollar and the dollar itself was softer against the majors, the shilling's loss against the euro (0.21%) and sterling (0.33%) was larger than against the dollar. For importers paying in euros or sterling, the cost of foreign inputs rose faster than the headline dollar rate shows.
| Implied cross rate (TICGL calc.) | 9-Oct-26 | 16-Oct-26 | Change | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1190 | 1.1206 | +0.14% | Euro firmer |
| GBP/USD | 1.3211 | 1.3246 | +0.26% | Sterling firmer |
| USD/JPY | 158.23 | 157.96 | -0.17% | Yen firmer |
| USD/CNY | 6.703 | 6.691 | -0.17% | Renminbi firmer |
| USD/INR | 96.78 | 95.06 | -1.78% | Rupee firmer (approximate) |
Source: TICGL calc. as ratios of the Bank's published TZS rates. Cross rates derived from two-decimal rates are approximate; the rupee and yen figures carry the largest rounding error.
1.2 Interbank foreign exchange market (IFEM)
IFEM transactions decreased to USD 19.70 million from USD 22.30 million. Trading was recorded on only four days in the latest week because there is no bar for Wednesday 14 October (TICGL note: 14 October is Nyerere Day, a public holiday in Tanzania). Per recorded trading day, turnover was USD 4.93 million against USD 4.46 million, so underlying activity was slightly firmer. Volume built through the week and was heaviest on Friday (USD 8.00 million), whereas in the prior week the peak came on Thursday (USD 8.30 million).
| Day | Previous week | Volume (USD m) | This week | Volume (USD m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 5 Oct 2026 | 1.10 | 12 Oct 2026 | 3.10 |
| Tuesday | 6 Oct 2026 | 3.80 | 13 Oct 2026 | 3.60 |
| Wednesday | 7 Oct 2026 | 4.00 | 14 Oct 2026 | no trade shown |
| Thursday | 8 Oct 2026 | 8.30 | 15 Oct 2026 | 5.00 |
| Friday | 9 Oct 2026 | 5.10 | 16 Oct 2026 | 8.00 |
| Week total | 22.30 | 19.70 |
Source: BoT Charts 1 and 2; totals as published in the text of the report.
Monthly Interbank FX Turnover, January 2024 - October 2026
Interbank Turnover by Year, Month by Month
Interbank as a Share of Retail Turnover, 2026
| Interbank FX turnover (USD m) | 2024 | 2025 | Jan-Sep 2025 | Jan-Sep 2026 | Growth Jan-Sep | Peak month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 611.1 | 1,183.1 | 707.6 | 1,369.6 | +93.6% | Jul-26: 227.1 |
Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Chart 3 monthly values. October 2026 (USD 50.9 million, part month) is excluded from the Jan-Sep comparison.
The interbank market is a thin layer on top of a large retail market: this week it was 3.3% of retail turnover (4.2% a week earlier), and in 2026 it has ranged from 3.5% (April) to 10.6% (February) of monthly retail turnover. Interbank turnover for January-September 2026 (USD 1.37 billion) already exceeds all of 2025 (USD 1.18 billion) by 15.8%, so depth is improving, but volumes of USD 4-8 million a day are small enough that a single large order can move the price. That is why the stability of the rate this week, in a market where retail flows swung by USD 185 million from net outflow to net inflow, is a signal about central-bank and bank balance-sheet management as much as about market equilibrium.
02 — Retail FX by SectorWho Buys and Who Sells the Dollars? Retail Foreign Exchange at Commercial Banks
Retail foreign-exchange transactions rose to USD 604.89 million from USD 533.81 million, an increase of USD 71.08 million or 13.3%. Trade (USD 181.28 million), mining (USD 74.18 million) and agriculture (USD 73.01 million) contributed the most, together USD 328.47 million or 54.3% of turnover. Over the past month, daily retail transactions averaged USD 124.06 million, with sales averaging USD 61.74 million and purchases USD 62.31 million, a balanced picture over a month that hides this week's large swing in net flows.
| Sector (USD million) | Previous week (5-9 Oct) | This week (12-16 Oct) | Turnover change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purchases | Sales | Total | Purchases | Sales | Total | ||
| Trade | 44.30 | 130.40 | 174.70 | 97.56 | 83.72 | 181.28 | +3.8% |
| Mining | 50.82 | 8.49 | 59.31 | 65.77 | 8.41 | 74.18 | +25.1% |
| Agriculture | 38.64 | 7.98 | 46.62 | 62.74 | 10.27 | 73.01 | +56.6% |
| Oil & Energy | 7.81 | 66.37 | 74.18 | 7.73 | 57.06 | 64.78 | -12.7% |
| Individual Retail Customers | 20.31 | 20.76 | 41.07 | 25.38 | 15.84 | 41.22 | +0.4% |
| Constructions (Machine & Equipment) | 10.41 | 10.73 | 21.14 | 19.44 | 19.73 | 39.17 | +85.3% |
| Manufacturing | 4.79 | 30.90 | 35.69 | 10.29 | 27.99 | 38.28 | +7.3% |
| Transport & Communication | 24.08 | 10.87 | 34.94 | 29.80 | 6.03 | 35.84 | +2.6% |
| Tourism | 20.90 | 3.22 | 24.12 | 24.81 | 2.07 | 26.88 | +11.4% |
| Social Services | 6.08 | 4.12 | 10.20 | 10.44 | 5.31 | 15.75 | +54.4% |
| NGOs | 6.79 | 0.34 | 7.13 | 9.05 | 2.37 | 11.42 | +60.2% |
| Breweries / Beverages | 0.00 | 4.70 | 4.70 | 0.13 | 2.96 | 3.09 | -34.3% |
| Total | 234.93 | 298.87 | 533.81 | 363.12 | 241.77 | 604.89 | +13.3% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2; turnover change is TICGL calc. Published totals are used; sector rows differ from totals by up to USD 0.02 million through rounding.
Total Turnover by Sector: Two Weeks
Net Flow by Sector: Purchases Minus Sales
2.1 The swing from net outflow to net inflow
Total purchases rose 54.6% to USD 363.12 million while total sales fell 19.1% to USD 241.77 million. On TICGL's reading (purchases are dollars bought by banks from customers), the banking system moved from a net sale of USD 63.94 million to a net purchase of USD 121.35 million, a swing of USD 185.29 million in a single week. Three sectors explain most of it: trade, where net flow went from -USD 86.10 million to +USD 13.84 million as purchases more than doubled (+120.2%) and sales fell 35.8%; mining, up USD 15.03 million to a net +USD 57.36 million; and agriculture, up USD 21.81 million to a net +USD 52.47 million, with purchases up 62.4%.
Purchases, Sales and Total: Two Weeks
Turnover Growth by Sector, This Week
Sector Share of Turnover, This Week
Retail Turnover: Year-on-Year Growth, 2026
2.2 A record year in the making
Monthly retail turnover rose from USD 740 million in January 2024 to USD 2,822 million in September 2026, the highest month on record in the chart. January-September 2026 turnover totals USD 19,575 million: 111.8% of the full-year 2025 total of USD 17,504 million and 64.0% above January-September 2025 (USD 11,935 million). Growth peaked in February 2026 (+109.0% year on year) and was lowest in May (+39.5%), but has stayed above +46% in every month since, with September at +62.3%.
| Retail FX turnover (USD m) | 2024 | 2025 | Jan-Sep 2024 | Jan-Sep 2025 | Jan-Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total turnover | 10,931 | 17,504 | 6,340 | 11,935 | 19,575 |
| Growth y/y | n.a. | +60.1% | n.a. | +88.2% | +64.0% |
Source: TICGL calc. from the monthly values in BoT Chart 4 (labels read from the chart). October 2026 (USD 1,385 million, part month) is excluded.
Retail Turnover Cumulative: January-September by Year vs Full Year
Sector flows tell a consistent export-and-import story. Dollar supply comes from mining, agriculture, tourism and transport (net inflows in each), while the main users are oil and energy (net -USD 49.33 million, even after a 12.7% fall in turnover), manufacturing (-USD 17.70 million) and breweries (-USD 2.83 million). Oil and energy remains the largest structural buyer of dollars, so fuel-price and import-bill developments (see the zonal report for the pump-price shock earlier in 2026) are the first thing to watch if net inflows fade. For investors and lenders with dollar costs or dollar revenues, the sector table is a ready-made map of who is on which side of the market.
03 — Money Market & LiquidityThe 7-Day Interbank Cash Market and Reverse Repo
The 7-day Interbank Cash Market (IBCM) weighted average rate (WAR) closed the week at 6.68%, down from 6.75% at the close of the previous week. Total 7-day trading volume increased to TZS 812.65 billion from TZS 748.35 billion (+8.6%). The 7-day weekly WAR averaged 6.41%, within the Central Bank Rate (CBR) corridor of 4.75% to 7.75%, and 16 basis points above the CBR of 6.25%, which the Bank describes as consistent with its policy stance.
IBCM This Week: Volume and Rate by Day
IBCM Previous Week: Volume and Rate by Day
| Session | Volume (TZS bn) | WAR (%) | Spread to CBR (bps) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 5 Oct | 153.1 | 6.49 | +24 |
| Tue 6 Oct | 60.5 | 6.55 | +30 |
| Wed 7 Oct | 1.0 | 6.05 | -20 |
| Thu 8 Oct | 242.5 | 6.35 | +10 |
| Fri 9 Oct | 291.3 | 6.75 | +50 |
| Mon 12 Oct | 160.1 | 6.12 | -13 |
| Tue 13 Oct | 219.0 | 6.46 | +21 |
| Thu 15 Oct | 194.5 | 6.44 | +19 |
| Fri 16 Oct | 239.1 | 6.68 | +43 |
| Totals: previous week / this week | 748.4 / 812.7 | 6.75 / 6.68 close |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Charts 6 and 7 (daily values read from the chart labels; weekly totals as published in the text: TZS 748.35 bn and TZS 812.65 bn). Spread to CBR is TICGL calc.
Daily IBCM Rate Against the CBR Corridor
Reverse Repo Injection vs IBCM Volume
3.1 7-day reverse repo: the Bank's operating-target tool
During the week the Bank conducted 7-day reverse repo through main operations at the CBR of 6.25%, injecting TZS 892.50 billion to steer the operating target towards the policy rate, against TZS 252.43 billion in the preceding week. The 24-auction history in Chart 8 shows how unusual the recent run is: the early auctions were TZS 75-110 billion each, injections then rose into the TZS 190-1,061 billion range, and the latest TZS 892.50 billion is 2.2 times the 24-auction average of TZS 403 billion (TICGL calc.) and the third-highest in the series after TZS 1,061.3 billion and TZS 893.0 billion.
7-Day Reverse Repo Injections, Last 24 Main Operations
| Measure | Previous week | This week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| IBCM 7-day volume (TZS bn) | 748.35 | 812.65 | +8.6% |
| IBCM closing WAR (%) | 6.75 | 6.68 | -7 bps |
| Reverse repo injected (TZS bn) | 252.43 | 892.50 | +253.6% |
| Injection / IBCM volume | 0.34x | 1.10x | +0.76x |
| Operation rate | CBR 6.25% | CBR 6.25% | unchanged |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, section 2; ratios are TICGL calc.
Rates are behaving, but liquidity is being actively managed. The weekly average of 6.41% sits 16 bps above the CBR, and daily rates ranged from 6.05% to 6.75% in a thin market (volume was only TZS 1.0 billion on 7 October). When the central bank injects more than the interbank market trades, as it did this week (1.10x), banks are leaning on the central bank for funding, which usually follows tax-payment dates, bond settlements and large retail FX transactions that absorb shilling liquidity. For borrowers it means short-term funding costs are anchored near 6.4-6.7% rather than at the 7.75% ceiling, but it also means lending and bond-pricing assumptions should allow for a funding rate that is 15-45 bps above the policy rate.
04 — Government SecuritiesWho Holds Tanzania's Treasury Bills and Bonds?
Outstanding government securities stand at TZS 34,015.15 billion. Treasury bonds make up TZS 30,560.85 billion (89.84%) and Treasury bills TZS 3,454.30 billion (10.16%), so the stock is dominated by long-dated paper. Banks (34.17%), pension funds (29.76%) and retail investors (17.92%) hold the largest shares.
| Investor category | Face value (TZS bn) | Share (%) | Comment (TICGL) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banks | 11,622.51 | 34.17 | Largest holder; also 56.25% of the latest 25-year allotment |
| Pension Funds | 10,121.28 | 29.76 | Long-dated, buy-and-hold demand |
| Retail Investors | 6,094.25 | 17.92 | Largest non-institutional share; 35,102 registered clients |
| CIS and Other Official Entities | 2,715.64 | 7.98 | Collective schemes and official bodies |
| Insurance Companies | 2,484.06 | 7.30 | Liability-matching demand |
| Others | 977.42 | 2.87 | Residual |
| Total | 34,015.15 | 100.00 |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 3; comments are TICGL/TERI readings. Banks plus pension funds hold 63.93% (TZS 21,743.79 billion, TICGL calc.).
Holdings by Investor Category
Bonds vs Bills in the Outstanding Stock
4.1 Registered clients: a fast-widening retail base
In the current fiscal year, 3,600 new clients have been onboarded, taking total registered clients to 35,102. Annual additions climbed from 153 in the earliest year shown to a peak of 9,899 in the second-latest fiscal year, and the 3,600 recorded so far in the current year (the fiscal year began in July) is 36% of that peak after roughly three and a half months. If that pace held for the rest of the year, additions would be well above the previous peak (TICGL calc., illustrative only). Retail investors already hold 17.92% of outstanding securities, so the client base is large enough to matter at the margin for auction demand.
New Registered Clients by Fiscal Year
Cumulative Registered Clients
The investor base is institutional at the core and retail at the margin. Banks and pension funds hold nearly two thirds of the stock, so auction outcomes depend on a few large balance sheets; a rising retail client count (+3,600 this fiscal year) adds a second source of demand for the same paper. The 89.84% bond share also means refinancing risk is spread over long maturities, which is good for debt management but means the bill market is small (TZS 3.45 trillion) and a single large bill auction can move short rates.
05 — Auctions & Yield CurveThe 25-Year Bond No. 722 and Recent Treasury Bond Auctions
The 25-year Treasury bond No. 722 (12.75%, issue 19, redeeming 16 October 2051), auctioned on 15 October 2026, attracted 2,547 bids, of which 1,673 were successful. The amount tendered was TZS 2,495.06 billion against TZS 414.19 billion offered, an oversubscription of TZS 2,080.87 billion. The Bank allotted TZS 610.61 billion, 47% more than the amount offered. The minimum successful price was 115.5000 and the weighted average price 116.3067, giving a weighted average yield to maturity of 10.8422%, against 11.4799% at the previous 25-year auction.
5.1 Recent Treasury bond auctions: the full table
| Measure | 5-yr No. 700 (2) | 10-yr No. 711 (2) | 15-yr No. 696 (2) | 15-yr No. 696 (3) | 25-yr No. 695 (3) | 25-yr No. 722 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coupon | 10.25% | 11.25% | 12.25% | 12.25% | 13.25% | 12.75% |
| Redemption date | 30-Apr-31 | 23-Jul-36 | 19-Feb-41 | 19-Feb-41 | 05-Feb-51 | 16-Oct-51 |
| Bids received | 100 | 165 | 396 | 312 | 2,681 | 2,547 |
| Successful bids | 75 | 87 | 235 | 208 | 1,671 | 1,673 |
| Highest bid /100 | 105.0000 | 109.0000 | 117.0314 | 113.5568 | 118.8041 | 118.8765 |
| Lowest bid /100 | 90.6441 | 83.3963 | 86.5544 | 90.6655 | 88.6694 | 85.4033 |
| Minimum successful price /100 | 100.1576 | 101.4576 | 109.2189 | 109.6647 | 113.7770 | 115.5000 |
| Weighted average price (WAP) | 102.6275 | 103.3267 | 112.4713 | 110.5120 | 114.4173 | 116.3067 |
| Weighted average yield to maturity | 9.53% | 10.69% | 10.55% | 10.79% | 11.48% | 10.84% |
| Weighted average coupon yield | 9.99% | 10.89% | 10.89% | 11.08% | 11.58% | 10.96% |
| Amount offered (TZS bn) | 145.63 | 182.90 | 207.27 | 207.27 | 414.19 | 414.19 |
| Total tendered (TZS bn) | 398.06 | 364.96 | 689.45 | 504.13 | 1,446.83 | 2,495.06 |
| Oversubscription (TZS bn) | 252.43 | 182.06 | 482.18 | 296.86 | 1,032.64 | 2,080.87 |
| Successful bids (TZS bn) | 143.57 | 149.60 | 181.19 | 196.51 | 414.20 | 610.61 |
| Bid-to-cover ratio | 2.73x | 2.00x | 3.33x | 2.43x | 3.49x | 6.02x |
| Coupon dates | 30/10, 30/04 | 23/01, 23/07 | 19/02, 19/08 | 19/02, 19/08 | 05/08, 05/02 | 16/04, 16/10 |
| Accrued interest (TZS) | 3.9315 | 1.2945 | 0.0336 | 1.4432 | 0.0363 | 0.0000 |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 5. The Bank prints under/oversubscription as negative numbers; we show the absolute oversubscription. Bonds are re-opened across auctions: "(2)" and "(3)" are the second and third issue of the same bond number, as printed.
Weighted Average Yield vs Coupon Yield by Auction
Auction-Implied Yield Curve: Yield by Years to Maturity
5.2 The shape of the curve
The auction results trace a curve that rises steeply and then flattens. From the 5-year bond (9.53%, about 4.5 years to maturity) to the 10-year (10.69%, about 9.8 years) yields rise 116 basis points. Beyond 10 years the curve is nearly flat: the 15-year results were 10.55% and 10.79% across two re-openings and the new 25-year cleared at 10.84%, only 15 bps above the 10-year. The earlier 25-year bond No. 695 had priced at 11.48%, so the new 25-year auction moved the long end down by about 64 bps. The 15-year bond moved the other way between its two re-openings (10.55% to 10.79%, +24 bps), so the rally was not uniform, and the Bank's two yield-curve lines (9 October and 16 October in Chart 10) should be read for the weekly shift.
Bid-to-Cover Ratio by Auction
Offered, Tendered and Successful Amounts
Bids Received vs Successful Bids
Price Range Across Each Auction
5.3 Who bid and who won at the 25-year auction?
Banks accounted for 27.51% of subscriptions and were allotted TZS 343.50 billion (56.25%). Individuals and companies accounted for 25.42% of subscriptions and were allotted TZS 191.30 billion (31.33%). Brokers accounted for 24.4% of subscriptions and were allotted only TZS 8.72 billion (1.43%). Collective investment schemes bid for 15.34% and received nothing. Pension funds subscribed 4.32% and were allotted 0.64%.
| Investor category | Subscription (%) | Allotment (%) | Allotment / subscription | Allotted (TZS bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banks | 27.51 | 56.25 | 2.04x | 343.50 |
| Individuals and Companies | 25.42 | 31.33 | 1.23x | 191.30 |
| Brokers | 24.40 | 1.43 | 0.06x | 8.72 |
| Collective Investment Schemes | 15.34 | - | 0.00x | 0.00 |
| Pension Funds | 4.32 | 0.64 | 0.15x | 3.91 |
| Banks (second line, as printed) | 2.20 | 6.53 | 2.97x | 39.87 |
| Others | 0.80 | 3.81 | 4.76x | 23.26 |
| Total | 100.00 | 100.00 | 1.00x | 610.61 |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 4. Allotted amounts for banks, individuals and companies and brokers are as published; the other rows are TICGL calc. (allotment share x TZS 610.61 billion). Ratios of allotment to subscription above 1.0x mean the group won more than its share of bids.
Subscription vs Allotment by Investor Category, 25-Year Bond No. 722
A 6.02x bid-to-cover on a TZS 414 billion offer is exceptional by the standards of the table: the previous best was 3.49x (the earlier 25-year bond), and the 10-year bond covered only 2.00x. The Bank's response was to allot 147% of the amount offered and let the yield fall 64 bps, which tells investors that it values long-term funding at lower yields when demand is deep. The spread between bids and results is wide, with the lowest bid at 85.40 against a minimum successful price of 115.50, so most of the 2,547 bids (including a large share of the brokers' subscriptions) were at prices far below where the auction cleared. The 25-year result is a good benchmark for long-tenor, shilling-denominated funding of infrastructure and PPP projects: a 10.84% base yield, with the question being whether a 6x covered auction can be repeated.
The next Government Securities auction is scheduled for Wednesday, 21 October 2026, when Treasury bills will be offered in line with the issuance calendar (details in the auction prospectus).
06 — Four-Week OutlookWhat Happens Next? 19 October - 13 November 2026
This tab turns the 16 October data into scenarios for the next four weeks (and, for the exchange rate, eight weeks to 11 December 2026). The latest hard data end on 16 October, so each scenario starts from that base and runs on simple, transparent rules that anyone can reproduce from the tables in Tabs 1-5. They are scenarios, not forecasts of record, and should be checked against the Bank of Tanzania's daily and weekly releases as they appear.
6.1 Exchange rate: four weekly-drift scenarios
We project the 16 October mean rate (TZS 2,633.12 per dollar) forward at four constant weekly rates of change. Steady (0.00% a week) holds the rate flat. Base (+0.07% a week) repeats the weekly move just observed. Faster depreciation (+0.25% a week) is a stress case about 3.6 times the latest pace, roughly 1% by mid-November. Appreciation (-0.10% a week) assumes inflows from the export season outweigh dollar demand.
USD/TZS Scenario Paths, 16 October - 11 December 2026
| Scenario | Weekly drift | 13 Nov 2026 | Change vs 16 Oct | 11 Dec 2026 | Change vs 16 Oct | Cost of USD 10m at 13 Nov (TZS m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appreciation | -0.10% | 2,622.60 | -10.52 (-0.40%) | 2,612.13 | -20.99 (-0.80%) | 26,226.0 |
| Steady | 0.00% | 2,633.12 | 0.00 | 2,633.12 | 0.00 | 26,331.2 |
| Base (latest pace) | +0.07% | 2,640.50 | +7.38 (+0.28%) | 2,647.89 | +14.77 (+0.56%) | 26,405.0 |
| Faster depreciation | +0.25% | 2,659.56 | +26.44 (+1.00%) | 2,686.29 | +53.17 (+2.02%) | 26,595.6 |
Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Table 1; compounding weekly from TZS 2,633.12 on 16 October 2026. The last column is a worked example for a project with USD 10 million of dollar-priced cost.
6.2 Money market and bonds: what to watch
- Interbank rate. With the weekly average at 6.41% and the close at 6.68%, the base case is a range of about 6.2-6.8% while injections stay large. A move above 7.0% would signal tightening liquidity within 75 bps of the ceiling; a move back towards 6.25% would signal that the injections have worked.
- Reverse repo. The latest TZS 892.50 billion is 2.2 times the 24-auction average. If injections drift back towards TZS 250-400 billion, liquidity is easing; if they stay near TZS 900 billion or above, funding pressure is persisting.
- Treasury bill auction, 21 October. The first bill auction after the long-bond rally shows whether short yields follow the 64 bps move at the long end.
- Long bonds. A repeat of 6x cover would keep the 25-year near 10.8%; cover of 2-3x, the norm in the other five auctions, would imply yields back near 11.0-11.5% (the previous 25-year auction was 11.48%).
- Retail FX. Weekly turnover of USD 605 million equals about USD 2.6 billion a month, a little below September's USD 2,822 million; October to date is already USD 1,385 million (part month).
6.3 Four-week outlook matrix
| Indicator | Latest (BoT report) | Four-week view (TICGL scenarios) | Swing factor | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TZS | 2,633.12 (+0.07% w/w) | About 2,640 by 13 Nov (base); range 2,623-2,660 | Oil-import demand; export-season inflows | Stable, mild weakening |
| Interbank FX | USD 19.70 m; four sessions | USD 4-8 m a day continues; weekly total USD 20-30 m | Bank positioning; public holidays | Stable |
| Retail FX turnover | USD 604.89 m (+13.3%) | USD 550-650 m a week; Q4 monthly total near USD 2.4-2.8 bn | Trade and commodity flows | High, steady |
| Net FX position | Net purchases USD 121.35 m | Net purchases in mining and agriculture continue; trade nets near zero | Oil and manufacturing imports | Inflow bias |
| IBCM 7-day rate | 6.68% close; 6.41% average | About 6.2-6.8%, upper half of corridor | Liquidity injections; tax dates | Stable, firm |
| Reverse repo | TZS 892.50 bn | TZS 300-900 bn per week depending on liquidity | Banks' funding needs | Elevated |
| T-bill yields | Auction 21 Oct | Direction depends on the 21 Oct result | Bill supply; liquidity | To be tested |
| Long-bond yields | 25-yr 10.84% (-64 bps) | 10.6-11.2% if cover stays above 3x | Bank and pension demand | Firm to lower |
| Securities investor base | 35,102 clients; +3,600 this FY | Continued onboarding | Retail participation | Up |
Source: TICGL/TERI synthesis of Tabs 1-5; ranges are analytical judgements around the scenario arithmetic, not model outputs.
The most likely four weeks combine heavy but stable foreign-exchange activity, an interbank rate that stays comfortably inside the corridor, and long-dated bond demand deep enough to keep yields near 10.8%. The biggest downside risk for the shilling is a sudden rise in oil and import demand; the biggest upside for yields is a repeat of the 25-year auction.
07 — Risks & PolicyWhat Could Go Wrong and What To Do About It
The week's data show a market that is liquid and calm on the surface and concentrated underneath. A small number of sectors supply the dollars, a small number of sectors use them, banks and pension funds hold two thirds of Treasury paper, and the central bank is carrying a lot of the short-term funding load.
Concentration Map: How Much Rides on a Few Players?
7.1 Risk register
| Risk | Evidence in the BoT report | Likelihood (next 4 weeks) | Impact | Most exposed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar demand from oil and imports | Oil and energy net -USD 49.33 m a week; manufacturing -USD 17.70 m | Medium | High | Importers; the shilling; fuel and food prices |
| Reversal of commodity inflows | Mining +USD 57.36 m and agriculture +USD 52.47 m net inflow; net position swung USD 185 m in one week | Medium | High | Exchange-rate stability; exporters |
| Thin interbank market | IFEM USD 19.70 m in four sessions; USD 4-8 m a day; 3.3% of retail turnover | Medium | Medium | Price discovery; large single-order impact |
| Short-term liquidity tightness | Reverse repo TZS 892.50 bn vs IBCM TZS 812.65 bn; weekly WAR 16 bps above CBR | Medium | Medium | Banks; short-term borrowers |
| Demand concentration in bonds | Banks 34.17% + pension funds 29.76% of holdings; banks 56.25% of 25-yr allotment | Low | Medium | Auction outcomes; yields |
| One-off auction demand | 6.02x cover vs 2.00-3.49x in other five auctions | Medium | Medium | Future long-bond pricing |
| Uneven curve moves | 15-yr yield 10.55% to 10.79% while 25-yr fell 64 bps | Medium | Low | Portfolio valuations; project financing assumptions |
| Small bill market | Treasury bills TZS 3,454.30 bn, 10.16% of stock | Low | Low | Short-rate volatility around auctions |
Source: TICGL/TERI analysis. Likelihood and impact ratings are analytical judgements (Low/Medium/High), not model outputs.
| Upward pressures (rates, exchange rate) | Downward pressures (relief) |
|---|---|
| Oil and energy remains the largest net buyer of dollars | Mining and agriculture net inflows of about USD 110 m a week |
| Interbank rate above the CBR; heavy reliance on reverse repo | Weekly average rate only 16 bps above CBR; 107 bps below the ceiling |
| Faster depreciation in non-USD currencies (INR, UGX, sterling) | Dollar softer against the majors, limiting broad pressure on the shilling |
| Concentrated bond ownership | Retail client base expanding (+3,600 this fiscal year) |
| Possible reversal of the 25-year yield rally | Deep demand at the long end (6.02x cover) |
7.2 Policy instruments
Next four weeks
- FX policy. Keep publishing daily mean rates and weekly flow data; track net sector flows, since the net position swung by USD 185 million in a week.
- Liquidity policy. Calibrate reverse repo size to IBCM volume (1.10x this week) so injections steer the rate to the CBR without crowding out interbank trade.
- Auction policy. Use the 21 October bill auction to test whether short yields follow the long end.
- Communication. Explain the gap between the weekly average rate (6.41%) and the CBR (6.25%).
Medium term (1-3 years)
- Market depth. Raise interbank FX volumes beyond the current USD 4-8 million a day by widening the participant base.
- Debt management. Build the Treasury bill stock (10.16% of outstanding) to give a deeper short-end benchmark.
- Investor base. Convert retail registration (35,102 clients) into regular auction participation.
- Hedging. Develop FX hedging products for the sectors with persistent net dollar needs.
Longer term (to 2030)
- Capital market. Use the 25-year benchmark to build a corporate and infrastructure bond curve.
- Data. Publish yield-curve values, retail FX moving-average data and fiscal-year labels with the weekly report.
- Resilience. Diversify dollar inflows beyond gold and a few crops.
- PPP funding. Link long-dated shilling bonds to bankable PPP project financing.
"A calm exchange rate can hide large flows. The question for the next four weeks is whether the dollars that arrived this week keep arriving, and whether the long-bond demand seen at the 25-year auction repeats."
— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)
Tanzania's week to 16 October 2026 shows a shilling at TZS 2,633.12, retail FX turnover of USD 604.89 million, an interbank rate of 6.68% and a 25-year bond yield of 10.84% after a 6.02x-covered auction. For the next four weeks the central scenario is a stable-to-slightly-weaker shilling (about TZS 2,640 by 13 November), money-market rates inside the corridor, and firm long-bond demand. The policy priority is to keep liquidity support and FX flow monitoring ahead of any shift in oil-import demand, and to deepen the interbank and bill markets.
08 — What TICGL DoesFrom Weekly Market Data to Bankable Projects
TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, turns market data of this kind into decision-grade work for investors, lenders and government: feasibility studies, market-entry advisory, and market research and economic intelligence. This tab shows how the figures in this report become inputs to a financial model or a market study. It does not recommend any investment.
| Data point in this report | Value | Where it enters a TICGL deliverable |
|---|---|---|
| USD/TZS mean rate | 2,633.12 | Feasibility study: base exchange rate and depreciation path for dollar-priced capex, equipment and debt service |
| Weekly drift scenarios | -0.10% to +0.25% | Financial model: FX sensitivity cases on NPV, IRR and DSCR |
| 5-year Treasury yield (auction) | 9.53% | Discount-rate build-up for short-life assets: risk-free benchmark |
| 10-year Treasury yield (auction) | 10.69% | WACC: risk-free rate for mid-life projects (10-year concessions, plants) |
| 25-year Treasury yield (auction) | 10.84% | PPP and infrastructure: long-tenor risk-free rate and domestic bond-funding benchmark |
| Central Bank Rate and 7-day interbank rate | 6.25% / 6.68% | Floating-rate loan pricing and working-capital cost in the model |
| Retail FX by sector | USD 604.89 m | Market research: sector demand, import and export intensity, hedging needs |
| Securities holdings by investor | TZS 34.0 tn | PPP structuring: identifying likely domestic financiers (banks, pension funds, insurers) |
Source: TICGL/TERI mapping of BoT weekly data to deliverables; indicative only.
8.1 Worked example: what a four-week FX move does to a dollar-priced budget
A project with USD 10 million of imported equipment costs TZS 26,331 million at the 16 October rate. Under the four scenarios on 13 November the same equipment costs TZS 26,226 million (appreciation), 26,331 million (steady), 26,405 million (base) or 26,596 million (faster depreciation): a spread of TZS 370 million between the best and worst cases in four weeks. A feasibility study turns this into a contingency line, a hedging recommendation and a financing-currency choice (shilling against dollar debt), tested against the sovereign yield levels above.
Feasibility studies
- Pre-feasibility and full feasibility across market, technical, financial, institutional, legal and risk components, with PPP structuring for public projects.
- Financial models with NPV, IRR and DSCR, stress-tested for exchange-rate, interest-rate and input-cost shocks of the kind shown in Tabs 1, 3 and 6.
- Funding-structure analysis against the Treasury curve (5, 10, 15 and 25-year yields) and investor-base data.
Market entry advisory
- Sector and market screening, then entry-mode choice: import and distribution, contract partner, joint venture or own plant.
- Currency and funding strategy for market entry: dollar costs, shilling revenues and hedging.
- Incentives, licensing and site mapping; partner and supplier identification; business facilitation from first meeting to registration and start-up.
Market research and economic intelligence
- Demand sizing, price benchmarking and competitor mapping by sector.
- Scenario models updated with each Bank of Tanzania release, as in the four-week outlook in Tab 6.
- Policy briefs and SEO-ready research publications for institutional clients through TERI.
The same headline shilling rate can mean very different project economics depending on who holds the dollar risk: an importer in oil and energy sits on the buying side, a miner or farmer on the supplying side, and a PPP sponsor funding with long shilling bonds faces a 10.84% benchmark rather than a policy rate of 6.25%. A short market study and a stress-tested financial model are the low-cost way to avoid using a headline rate for a project-level decision.
Talk to TICGL/TERI
Request a feasibility, market-entry or market-research scoping call, or a briefing on this report and the four-week outlook.
What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →✉️ economist@ticgl.com09 - SourcesMethod & Source Note
Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 12-OCT-2026 to 16-OCT-2026 (Tables 1-5 and Charts 1-10): exchange rates, Interbank Foreign Exchange Market, retail foreign exchange, 7-day Interbank Cash Market, reverse repo, government securities holdings, registered clients, auction results and sovereign yield curve. TICGL calculations. Week-on-week growth rates; shares; implied cross rates (ratios of published TZS rates); net foreign-exchange flows (purchases minus sales); January-September cumulative and year-on-year growth from monthly chart labels; interbank share of retail turnover; spreads to the CBR; allotment-to-subscription ratios; cumulative registered clients; years to maturity for the auction-implied curve. Outlook scenarios. Exchange rate: 16 October mean rate compounded weekly at -0.10%, 0.00%, +0.07% and +0.25%; reverse-repo and interbank ranges: analytical judgement around the observed ranges. Limitations. Daily values in the IBCM and IFEM charts and monthly values in Charts 3 and 4 are read from chart labels; Chart 5 (retail moving average) and Chart 10 (yield curve) have no numeric values in the report text; "purchases" and "sales" in Table 2 are not defined by the Bank; Table 4 prints "Banks" twice; the year labels of Chart 9 are not printed, so fiscal years are labelled relative to the current year; October 2026 monthly values are part-month.
- Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 12-16 October 2026, Dar es Salaam, 2026.
- Bank of Tanzania Central Bank Rate (6.25%) and 4.75-7.75% corridor, as stated in the report.
- TICGL/TERI, Tanzania Zonal Economic Performance 2025/26 and Six-Month Outlook (for the pump-price and inflation context).
10 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What was the USD/TZS exchange rate in the week to 16 October 2026?
The Bank of Tanzania mean rate closed at TZS 2,633.12 per US dollar on 16 October 2026, from TZS 2,631.36 a week earlier, a 0.07% weakening of the shilling. All nine tracked currencies rose against the shilling, with the Indian rupee up 1.88%, the Ugandan shilling up 0.93% and sterling up 0.33%.
How active were Tanzania's foreign exchange markets?
Interbank FX turnover fell to USD 19.70 million from USD 22.30 million, but retail turnover at commercial banks rose 13.3% to USD 604.89 million. Trade (USD 181.28 million), mining (USD 74.18 million) and agriculture (USD 73.01 million) were the largest sectors, together 54.3% of turnover.
What is the interbank cash market rate versus the Central Bank Rate?
The 7-day interbank cash market weighted average rate closed at 6.68% (from 6.75%) and averaged 6.41% for the week, 16 basis points above the Central Bank Rate of 6.25% and inside the 4.75% to 7.75% corridor. Volume rose to TZS 812.65 billion, and the Bank injected TZS 892.50 billion through 7-day reverse repo.
How much government debt is outstanding and who holds it?
Outstanding government securities are TZS 34,015.15 billion: Treasury bonds TZS 30,560.85 billion (89.84%) and Treasury bills TZS 3,454.30 billion (10.16%). Banks hold 34.17%, pension funds 29.76% and retail investors 17.92%. Registered clients total 35,102, including 3,600 added in the current fiscal year.
What happened at the 25-year Treasury bond auction on 15 October 2026?
Bond No. 722 attracted 2,547 bids and TZS 2,495.06 billion against TZS 414.19 billion offered (bid-to-cover 6.02x). The Bank allotted TZS 610.61 billion at a weighted average yield of 10.84%, down from 11.48% at the previous 25-year auction. Banks took 56.25% of the allotment.
What is the four-week outlook for the shilling and interest rates?
TICGL/TERI scenarios keep the shilling near TZS 2,640 per dollar by 13 November 2026 if the latest weekly drift of 0.07% continues, with a range of TZS 2,623 to 2,660. Interbank rates should stay in the upper half of the 4.75-7.75% corridor while reverse repo support is large, and the 21 October Treasury bill auction is the next test of yields.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Masoko ya fedha ya Tanzania, wiki ya 12-16 Oktoba 2026. Kwa mujibu wa Ripoti ya Wiki ya Masoko ya Fedha ya Ndani ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT), shilingi ilifunga wiki kwa TZS 2,633.12 kwa dola moja ya Marekani, kutoka TZS 2,631.36 wiki iliyotangulia, yaani kushuka kwa asilimia 0.07 tu. Sarafu zote tisa zilizoorodheshwa zilipanda dhidi ya shilingi, kuanzia asilimia 0.02 (faranga ya Rwanda) hadi asilimia 1.88 (rupia ya India).
Soko la fedha za kigeni: Mauzo katika soko la benki kwa benki (IFEM) yalishuka hadi dola milioni 19.70 kutoka milioni 22.30 (asilimia 11.7), lakini siku za biashara zilikuwa nne tu. Soko la rejareja kwenye benki za biashara lilipanda asilimia 13.3 hadi dola milioni 604.89. Biashara (milioni 181.28), madini (milioni 74.18) na kilimo (milioni 73.01) vilichangia asilimia 54.3. Benki zilinunua dola nyingi kuliko zilizouza: ziada ya dola milioni 121.35, ikilinganishwa na upungufu wa milioni 63.94 wiki iliyotangulia. Mwaka 2026 tayari ni wa rekodi: Januari-Septemba ni dola bilioni 19.6, zaidi ya mwaka mzima wa 2025 (bilioni 17.5).
Soko la fedha (money market): Kiwango cha wastani cha siku 7 katika soko la fedha la benki (IBCM) kilifunga kwa asilimia 6.68 (kutoka 6.75), na wastani wa wiki ulikuwa asilimia 6.41, juu ya Kiwango cha Benki Kuu (CBR) cha asilimia 6.25 kwa pointi 16 za msingi, ndani ya ukanda wa asilimia 4.75 hadi 7.75. Kiasi kilifikia TZS bilioni 812.65. BoT ilitoa fedha TZS bilioni 892.50 kupitia reverse repo ya siku 7, mara 3.5 ya wiki iliyotangulia (bilioni 252.43).
Dhamana za serikali: Dhamana zilizobaki ni TZS bilioni 34,015.15: hatifungani asilimia 89.84 na hati fungani za muda mfupi (bills) asilimia 10.16. Benki zinashikilia asilimia 34.17, mifuko ya pensheni asilimia 29.76 na wawekezaji wa rejareja asilimia 17.92. Wateja waliosajiliwa ni 35,102, ambapo 3,600 wameongezwa katika mwaka huu wa fedha.
Mnada wa hatifungani ya miaka 25 (No. 722): Zabuni 2,547 zilipokelewa zenye thamani ya TZS bilioni 2,495.06 dhidi ya bilioni 414.19 zilizotolewa (uwiano wa 6.02). BoT ilikubali TZS bilioni 610.61 kwa wastani wa mapato (yield) ya asilimia 10.84, chini kutoka asilimia 11.48 kwenye mnada wa awali wa miaka 25, yaani punguzo la pointi 64. Benki zilipata asilimia 56.25 ya mgao. Mnada unaofuata ni Jumatano, 21 Oktoba 2026 (hati fungani za muda mfupi).
Wiki nne zijazo (hadi 13 Novemba 2026): Katika hali ya msingi, shilingi inaendelea kudondoka polepole kwa kasi ya sasa ya asilimia 0.07 kwa wiki hadi takriban TZS 2,640 kwa dola (wigo TZS 2,623 hadi 2,660). Viwango vya soko la fedha vinabaki katika nusu ya juu ya ukanda wakati BoT inaendelea kutoa fedha kwa wingi. Mapato ya hatifungani ndefu yanatarajiwa kubaki karibu asilimia 10.8 ikiwa mahitaji yataendelea kuwa makubwa. Mambo yanayoweza kubadilisha mwelekeo ni mahitaji ya dola kwa uagizaji wa mafuta, kasi ya mtiririko wa dola kutoka madini na kilimo, na matokeo ya mnada wa 21 Oktoba.
Mapendekezo: (1) Kufuatilia mtiririko wa dola kwa sekta kila wiki; (2) kulinganisha kiasi cha reverse repo na kiasi cha IBCM; (3) kukuza soko la benki kwa benki la fedha za kigeni; (4) kuongeza hati fungani za muda mfupi ili kupata kigezo cha muda mfupi; (5) kutumia mapato ya hatifungani ya miaka 25 kama kigezo cha kufadhili miradi ya miundombinu na PPP; (6) kuchapisha thamani za yield curve pamoja na ripoti. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko.
Hitimisho: Soko ni tulivu juu ya uso lakini limejikita kwa wachache: sekta chache zinaleta dola, sekta chache zinazitumia, na benki na mifuko ya pensheni zinashikilia theluthi mbili ya dhamana za serikali. Changamoto ya wiki nne zijazo ni kuhakikisha mtiririko wa dola unaendelea na mahitaji ya hatifungani ndefu yanabaki.
- USD/TZS: 2,633.12 · mabadiliko ya wiki: asilimia 0.07
- FX ya rejareja: dola milioni 604.89 · asilimia 13.3 · IFEM: dola milioni 19.70
- IBCM: asilimia 6.68 · CBR: asilimia 6.25 · reverse repo: TZS bilioni 892.50
- Hatifungani ya miaka 25: yield asilimia 10.84 · uwiano wa zabuni 6.02
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Ripoti ya Wiki ya Masoko ya Fedha ya Ndani (12-16 Oktoba 2026); TERI/TICGL, Oktoba 2026. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.