Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd

| Economic Research Centre

Tanzania’s economic landscape showed mixed signals
March 25, 2024  
The interbank cash market (IBCM) continued to facilitate the trading of shilling liquidity among banks. In January 2024, the total value of transactions amounted to TZS 2,187.8 billion, a decrease from the TZS 2,488.6 billion traded in the previous month. Transactions spanning seven days comprised the majority share, constituting 50.6 percent of the total market […]

The interbank cash market (IBCM) continued to facilitate the trading of shilling liquidity among banks. In January 2024, the total value of transactions amounted to TZS 2,187.8 billion, a decrease from the TZS 2,488.6 billion traded in the previous month. Transactions spanning seven days comprised the majority share, constituting 50.6 percent of the total market turnover. Overall, IBCM interest rates experienced a slight increase, rising to 7.27 percent from the previous month's 6.81 percent.

The Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) saw a recovery in January 2024, driven by seasonal receipts from tourism and agricultural produce. Consequently, commercial banks were the sole participants in the market, though at a reduced level, with total sales amounting to USD 3.8 million, down from USD 17 million in the previous month. Reflecting the foreign exchange liquidity situation, the shilling traded at an average rate of TZS 2,520.68 per US dollar, compared to TZS 2,516 per US dollar in the preceding month. This represented an annual depreciation of 8.6 percent from TZS 2,320.64 per US dollar in January 2023.

Tanzania's economic performance and growth trajectory during the specified period:

Interbank Cash Market (IBCM):

  • The decrease in the total value of transactions in the interbank cash market from the preceding month may indicate a potential slowdown in economic activity or liquidity conditions.
  • The slight increase in IBCM interest rates suggests tightening liquidity conditions or changes in monetary policy by the central bank to manage inflation or stabilize the currency.

 Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM):

  • The recovery in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market, driven by seasonal receipts from tourism and agricultural produce, signifies resilience in key sectors contributing to foreign exchange earnings.
  • The reduction in total sales compared to the previous month may indicate fluctuations in demand for foreign currency, which could be influenced by factors such as international trade dynamics or domestic economic conditions.
  • The depreciation of the Tanzanian shilling against the US dollar suggests potential challenges in maintaining currency stability and may have implications for inflation and import costs.

Hence, these indicators suggest a mixed economic performance for Tanzania during the specified period. While certain sectors, such as tourism and agriculture, showed signs of recovery and resilience, challenges in liquidity conditions and currency stability may require attention to sustain economic growth and stability.

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