Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; it is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. Every amount on this page is in TZS trillion unless it is marked USD or TZS billion. The Bank of Tanzania publishes external debt in US dollars and domestic debt in shillings; external amounts are converted at one constant rate so that month-to-month and year-to-year changes show borrowing, repayment and valuation as the Bank reports them in dollars, not exchange-rate noise. A companion page, Tanzania Economic Update, October 2026, covers the rest of the review.
00 — Overview & VerdictExecutive Summary: A Large but Stable Stock, With Pressure in the Plumbing
Tanzania owes about TZS 138.3 trillion (USD 52.3 billion), and the total did not move in September. National debt was USD 52,344.2 million, against USD 52,341.1 million in August. External debt is TZS 97.19 trillion (70.3%) and domestic debt TZS 41.11 trillion (29.7%). At a constant exchange rate the total is 128.6 trillion a year earlier, so the stock is up about 7.5% in twelve months.
The creditor mix is lenient at the top and pricier at the margin. Multilateral lenders hold TZS 57.84 trillion (59.5% of external debt); commercial lenders TZS 33.50 trillion (34.5%). At home, Treasury bonds are TZS 34.80 trillion (84.6% of domestic debt), and banks and pension funds hold 55.9% of the stock.
Arrears are the warning light. External arrears doubled from USD 584.1 million to USD 1,197.4 million (TZS 1.54 trillion to TZS 3.16 trillion). Commercial principal arrears almost tripled, from TZS 0.49 trillion to TZS 1.45 trillion.
The cost is rising inside the budget. The 2026/27 budget carries TZS 6.86 trillion of interest (14.8% of revenue) and TZS 7.84 trillion of principal repayments. In July, interest ran 33.7% above the estimate and domestic interest almost doubled.
National Debt, TZS Trillion: External and Domestic
Who Holds Tanzania's Debt? Total TZS 138.3 Trillion
External Debt in TZS Trillion at Each Year-End, 2018–2025
Debt Structure Indicators
The debt in one table
| TZS trillion | Sep-25* | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Share Sep-26 | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External debt (incl. interest arrears) | 91.18 | 97.36 | 97.19 | 70.3% | +6.6% |
| Central government | 77.39 | 81.33 | 81.11 | 58.6% | +4.8% |
| Private sector | 13.79 | 16.04 | 16.09 | 11.6% | +16.7% |
| Domestic debt (excl. liquidity papers) | 37.46 | 40.90 | 41.11 | 29.7% | +9.8% |
| National debt | 128.64 | 138.26 | 138.30 | 100% | +7.5% |
Table 0.1. *External amounts converted at the constant Sep-26 implied rate (TZS 2,642.26 per USD), so changes are changes in the debt as reported in dollars. Source: BoT MER Tables 2.6.1, 2.6.5; TICGL/TERI arithmetic. In dollars the Bank reports national debt at USD 52,341.1M (Aug-26) and USD 52,344.2M (Sep-26).
Key findings
- Stable stock. The total moved by under 0.1% in September: external disbursements of USD 234.3 million (TZS 0.62 trillion) were offset by principal repayments of USD 122.0 million and valuation.
- External is the larger and the more concessional half. Multilateral lenders are 59.5% of external debt; 83.4% is owed by central government.
- Domestic debt is a bond market. Bonds are 84.6% and bills 4.6% (TZS 1.90 trillion); the central bank overdraft is down 13.3% to TZS 4.29 trillion.
- The shilling is a valuation channel. With 65.3% of external debt in US dollars and 18.1% in euros, a 10% depreciation raises the shilling value of external debt by about TZS 9.7 trillion.
- Arrears are growing faster than the stock. They are 3.3% of external debt, up from 1.7% a year ago.
- The pipeline is large. USD 15.0 billion (TZS 39.7 trillion) of committed loans is still undisbursed, down from USD 19.4 billion a year earlier.
The stock is large and steady, but the pressure sits in service, not size: dollar-denominated interest, rising commercial arrears and a budget that must roll over TZS 3.3 trillion of domestic principal and repay TZS 4.6 trillion of external principal in 2026/27. The review does not publish debt-to-GDP, so sustainability ratios on this page use exports and budget revenue.
01 — External DebtTZS 97.2 Trillion Owed Abroad: Mostly Multilateral, Mostly Government, Mostly Dollars
External debt held by the public and private sectors was USD 36,784.2 million at end-September 2026, TZS 97.19 trillion at the implied rate. The public sector owes 83.4%. During September the stock was stable: disbursements of USD 234.3 million (largely to the central government) and debt service of USD 171.9 million, of which USD 122.0 million was principal.
| Creditor (TZS trillion) | Sep-25 | Share | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Share | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multilateral | 53.45 | 58.6% | 57.86 | 57.84 | 59.5% | +8.2% |
| Commercial | 31.82 | 34.9% | 33.61 | 33.50 | 34.5% | +5.3% |
| Bilateral | 4.12 | 4.5% | 4.12 | 4.09 | 4.2% | -0.8% |
| Export credit | 1.79 | 2.0% | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.8% | -1.6% |
| External debt stock | 91.18 | 100% | 97.36 | 97.19 | 100% | +6.6% |
Table 1.1. Includes interest arrears. USD amounts × TZS 2,642.26 per USD (constant). Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.2; TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
External Debt by Creditor: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Disbursed External Debt by Borrower, Monthly
Currency and purpose
| Currency (disbursed debt) | USD M | TZS trillion | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | 23,788.8 | 62.86 | 65.3% |
| Euro | 6,580.8 | 17.39 | 18.1% |
| Chinese yuan | 2,450.2 | 6.47 | 6.7% |
| Other currencies | 3,634.5 | 9.60 | 10.0% |
| Disbursed outstanding debt (excl. interest arrears) | 36,454.3 | 96.32 | 100% |
Table 1.2. Source: BoT MER Tables 2.6.4, A10. Shares as reported by the Bank; interest arrears of USD 329.9M are added to reach the USD 36,784.2M stock.
External Debt by Currency, September 2026
What the Money Was Used For, September 2026
Flows: borrowing, repayment and the pipeline
Monthly Disbursements and Debt Service
Committed, Disbursed and Undisbursed Loans
The external debt profile is conventional for a lower-middle-income country: long-dated multilateral money, a one-third commercial layer, and the dollar as the main currency. The trade-off is the commercial layer, which is growing faster than the multilateral layer in arrears terms, and the 65.3% US dollar share that makes the shilling value of debt sensitive to the exchange rate.
02 — Domestic DebtTZS 41.1 Trillion Borrowed at Home: A Bond Market Held by Banks and Pension Funds
The domestic debt stock reached TZS 41.11 trillion at end-September 2026 (TZS 40.90 trillion in August; TZS 37.46 trillion in September 2025, excluding liquidity papers). Commercial banks and pension funds together hold more than half. In September the Government raised TZS 0.356 trillion (TZS 0.178 trillion of bonds and TZS 0.178 trillion of 364-day bills) and paid domestic debt service of TZS 0.556 trillion: TZS 0.251 trillion of principal and TZS 0.306 trillion of interest.
| By instrument (TZS trillion) | Sep-25 | Share | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Share | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury bonds | 30.30 | 80.9% | 34.79 | 34.80 | 84.6% | +14.8% |
| Treasury bills | 2.06 | 5.5% | 1.79 | 1.90 | 4.6% | −7.9% |
| Government stocks | 0.14 | 0.4% | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.3% | −0.1% |
| Government securities (subtotal) | 32.50 | 86.8% | 36.72 | 36.83 | 89.6% | +13.3% |
| Overdraft (Bank of Tanzania) | 4.94 | 13.2% | 4.18 | 4.29 | 10.4% | −13.3% |
| Domestic debt (excl. liquidity papers) | 37.46 | 100% | 40.90 | 41.11 | 100% | +9.8% |
Table 2.1. Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.5; TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Sep-25 also had TZS 0.02 trillion of other liabilities.
| By holder (TZS trillion) | Sep-25 | Share | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Share | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial banks | 10.75 | 28.7% | 11.60 | 11.70 | 28.5% | +8.8% |
| Pension funds | 10.28 | 27.4% | 11.29 | 11.26 | 27.4% | +9.5% |
| Others (public institutions, companies, individuals, non-residents) | 7.07 | 18.9% | 8.03 | 8.10 | 19.7% | +14.5% |
| Bank of Tanzania | 6.75 | 18.0% | 7.05 | 7.16 | 17.4% | +6.1% |
| Insurance companies | 1.83 | 4.9% | 2.05 | 2.03 | 4.9% | +11.2% |
| BoT special funds | 0.78 | 2.1% | 0.87 | 0.87 | 2.1% | +10.8% |
| Domestic debt (excl. liquidity papers) | 37.46 | 100% | 40.90 | 41.11 | 100% | +9.8% |
Table 2.2. Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.6; TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Domestic Debt by Instrument: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Domestic Debt by Holder: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Share of Domestic Debt by Holder, September 2026
September 2026 Domestic Market Activity
What domestic borrowing costs
Treasury Bond Yield Curve: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Monthly Interest Bill: Budget Average, July Estimate and July Actual
Domestic debt is growing slower than the economy's nominal money supply (M3 +25.9%), the market is oversubscribed (bond bid cover of 2.4 times in September) and yields are lower, so the domestic side is the most manageable part of the debt. Two things to watch: concentration, as banks and pension funds hold 55.9% of the stock and so cannot easily lend elsewhere, and the opening of Government securities to foreign investors from 17 July 2026, which could change both the holder mix and the exchange-rate exposure.
03 — Debt Service & ArrearsTZS 7.0 Trillion of External Service a Year, and Arrears That Have Doubled
In the twelve months from October 2025 to September 2026, external debt service was USD 2,658.3 million (TZS 7.02 trillion): USD 1,914.8 million of principal and USD 743.5 million of interest. New disbursements were USD 4,171.7 million (TZS 11.02 trillion), so net flows were positive. External arrears, however, rose every month.
Monthly External Debt Service: Principal and Interest
Net Flows and Net Transfers on External Debt
Arrears in TZS trillion
| Arrears (TZS trillion) | Sep-25 | Dec-25 | Mar-26 | Jun-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Principal arrears | 1.06 | 1.21 | 1.30 | 1.65 | 1.99 | 2.29 | +115.9% |
| Commercial | 0.49 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 0.84 | 1.17 | 1.45 | +197.9% |
| Bilateral | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.53 | +13.6% |
| Export credit | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.28 | +151.6% |
| Multilateral | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | — |
| Interest arrears | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.59 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.87 | +81.0% |
| Total arrears | 1.54 | 1.77 | 1.89 | 2.37 | 2.82 | 3.16 | +105.0% |
Table 3.1. USD × TZS 2,642.26 per USD (constant). Source: BoT MER Table A10 item 10; TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
External Arrears: Principal and Interest
Principal Arrears by Creditor: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Debt-service burden indicators (TICGL/TERI arithmetic)
| Indicator | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| External debt service ÷ exports of goods and services | 12.6% | USD 2,658.3M ÷ USD 21,065.1M, 12 months to Sep-26 |
| External debt ÷ exports of goods and services | 174.6% | USD 36,784.2M ÷ USD 21,065.1M |
| External debt service ÷ gross reserves | 44.1% | USD 2,658.3M ÷ USD 6,031.9M |
| Interest ÷ principal, external service | 38.8% | USD 743.5M ÷ USD 1,914.8M |
| Arrears ÷ external debt stock | 3.3% | USD 1,197.4M ÷ USD 36,784.2M (1.7% in Sep-25) |
| Commercial debt ÷ external debt | 34.5% | USD 12,677.7M ÷ USD 36,784.2M |
Table 3.2. No sustainability thresholds are asserted; the review does not publish a debt-sustainability analysis.
The arrears stock is small against the TZS 97 trillion of external debt, but its direction is clear: up every month, led by commercial creditors, with principal arrears more than doubling. A build-up of arrears usually reflects processing or foreign-currency liquidity frictions rather than inability to pay, but if it persists it raises the premium commercial lenders ask on new loans and can delay disbursements from the TZS 39.7 trillion pipeline that is still undrawn.
04 — Budget & CalculatorHow the 2026/27 Budget Pays for the Debt, and What a Weaker Shilling Would Add
The 2026/27 budget estimates revenue of TZS 46.23 trillion and spending of TZS 54.50 trillion, a deficit after grants of TZS 7.71 trillion. Debt takes a large slice: TZS 6.86 trillion of interest (TZS 4.03 trillion domestic, TZS 2.83 trillion foreign), plus principal repayments of TZS 4.55 trillion on external loans and TZS 3.29 trillion on domestic debt, which is rolled over.
| Debt in the 2026/27 budget (TZS trillion) | Amount | % of revenue | % of spending |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest payments | 6.86 | 14.8% | 12.6% |
| Domestic interest | 4.03 | 8.7% | 7.4% |
| Foreign interest | 2.83 | 6.1% | 5.2% |
| External principal (amortization) | 4.55 | 9.8% | 8.3% |
| Domestic principal (rolled over) | 3.29 | 7.1% | 6.0% |
| Interest plus principal | 14.70 | 31.8% | 27.0% |
Table 4.1. Source: BoT MER Table A2; shares are TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
| Financing the 2026/27 budget (TZS trillion) | Annual budget | July estimate | July actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall deficit financed (after grants) | 7.71 | 0.08 | −0.49 (surplus) |
| Foreign loans (gross) | 8.99 | 0.23 | 1.36 |
| Program loans | 1.79 | 0.00 | 1.16 |
| Development project loans | 7.14 | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| of which non-concessional | 2.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Foreign amortization | −4.55 | −0.08 | −0.27 |
| Foreign financing (net) | 4.43 | 0.15 | 1.09 |
| Domestic financing (net) | 3.27 | −0.08 | −1.58 |
| Bank borrowing | 2.06 | −0.06 | −1.86 |
| Non-bank (net of amortization) | 1.22 | −0.01 | 0.28 |
| Domestic roll-over borrowing | 3.29 | 0.21 | 0.08 |
Table 4.2. Source: BoT MER Table A2. July actual: foreign program loans of TZS 1.16 trillion were 65% of the full-year program-loan budget, and the Government repaid TZS 1.86 trillion to the banking system.
Debt Service in the 2026/27 Budget
Where the 2026/27 Borrowing Comes From
July 2026: Financing, Estimate vs Actual
What a Weaker Shilling Does to the Debt Stock
National debt calculator (TZS trillion)
Starts from the September 2026 stock (external USD 36.78 billion; domestic TZS 41.11 trillion; implied rate TZS 2,642.26 per USD). Enter an exchange-rate move and new net borrowing. Defaults add a year of the budgeted net financing (USD 1.68 billion external, TZS 3.27 trillion domestic) with no exchange-rate change. An arithmetic illustration, not a forecast.
A third of budgeted revenue goes to interest and principal, and July's outturn shows how the mix can shift: foreign program loans of TZS 1.16 trillion arrived early and were used to repay TZS 1.86 trillion to the banking system. That is a positive liquidity event for banks, and it front-loads foreign borrowing: 65% of the year's program-loan budget arrived in the first month. The calculator shows the other side: a 10% weaker shilling adds more to the debt stock (TZS 9.7 trillion) than a full year of planned net domestic borrowing (TZS 3.3 trillion).
05 — Outlook & PolicyFive Debt Indicators to Watch Over the Next Two Quarters
The review shows a debt stock that is stable and a financing environment that is supportive: domestic auctions are oversubscribed, yields are lower, foreign investors are being admitted, and multilateral lenders continue to disburse. The pressure points are arrears, commercial debt and interest costs. TICGL/TERI would track the following.
| Indicator | Latest | Level that would change the reading | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| External arrears | TZS 3.16T (USD 1.20B) | Above USD 1.5B, or commercial arrears above USD 700M | Rising 8–14% a month since May; signals liquidity or processing friction |
| Commercial share of external debt | 34.5% | Rising above 35% while multilateral share falls | Commercial debt carries higher cost and shorter tenor |
| Domestic interest bill | TZS 0.38T in July | Run-rate above TZS 0.34T a month (4.03T ÷ 12) | July was double the estimate; falling yields should help new issues |
| Foreign holdings of Government securities | Not yet reported | First data after GN 206 of 17 July 2026 | Could lower yields; adds FX and reversal risk |
| Shilling vs US dollar | TZS 2,654.91 | Depreciation beyond 5% in a quarter | Each 10% adds about TZS 9.7T to external debt |
| Undisbursed pipeline | TZS 39.7T (USD 15.0B) | Disbursements below service for two months | Net flows were negative in April 2026 |
Table 5.1. Thresholds are TICGL/TERI judgements, not official limits. Latest values: BoT MER October 2026.
Illustrative debt path: one more year of budgeted financing
National Debt in TZS Trillion After a Year of Budgeted Net Financing, at Different Exchange Rates
Policy implications
Debt management
- Clear commercial and export-credit arrears first; they have tripled and more than doubled.
- Publish a quarterly arrears-by-creditor table with the debt bulletin.
- Lengthen domestic maturities while yields are lower.
Fiscal policy
- Hold interest at the budgeted 12.6% of spending by phasing non-concessional borrowing (TZS 2.43T planned).
- Use the July program-loan inflow to rebuild deposits rather than front-load spending.
- Publish debt-to-GDP in the monthly review.
Exchange-rate exposure
- Match foreign-currency debt service to export and tourism receipts.
- Consider shilling-denominated issuance for foreign investors under the new rules.
- Track the 65.3% US dollar share and 18.1% euro share.
Investors and lenders
- Treat arrears as a leading indicator of payment friction.
- Foreign buyers of Treasury bonds should price FX and exit risk.
- Local banks and pension funds: diversification beyond a 55.9% holding.
Talk to TICGL/TERI
Need a debt-sustainability briefing, a shilling-bond investor note, or a feasibility study for a project that depends on public financing? Our economists can tailor this analysis to your sector.
What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →Invest in Tanzania →✉️ economist@ticgl.com06 — Sources & Data NotesMethod, Definitions and Reconciliation Notes
Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (data to September 2026): Tables 2.6.1–2.6.6 (debt developments), Table A1 (selected indicators), Table A2 (central government operations), Table A4 (interest rates) and Table A10 (national debt developments). Calculations. Conversions to TZS trillion, shares, changes, ratios, scenarios and calculator results are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on published figures.
Definitions and reconciliation notes
| Item | Treatment on this page |
|---|---|
| Exchange rate used for conversion | The Bank reports external debt in US dollars and domestic debt in shillings. Its national-debt total of USD 52,344.2M implies domestic debt of USD 15,560.0M, i.e. TZS 2,642.26 per USD (TZS 41,113.5B ÷ USD 15,560.0M). That rate converts all external amounts. The September 2026 interbank average was TZS 2,654.91, which would raise external debt by 0.5%. |
| Constant-rate comparisons | Sep-25, Aug-26 and monthly series use the same rate, so changes show borrowing and repayment as reported in dollars. Converting at each month's actual rate would add the shilling's depreciation (7.4% y/y on average) to the shilling value of the external debt. |
| Year-end history | The 2018–2025 chart converts the dollar stock at each year-end exchange rate from Table A1, so it includes valuation effects. |
| External debt definitions | "External debt stock" (USD 36,784.2M) = disbursed outstanding debt (USD 36,454.3M) + interest arrears (USD 329.9M). Principal arrears (USD 867.5M) are inside disbursed debt and are shown separately as arrears. |
| Domestic debt basis | Excludes liquidity papers, as in Table 2.6.5. The Sep-25 total of TZS 37,459.0B includes TZS 18.4B of other liabilities. |
| Debt service | 12-month external debt service is the sum of principal and interest for October 2025 to September 2026 in Table A10. The September domestic figures are from the text of section 2.6. |
| Budget figures | 2026/27 amounts are the budget estimates in Table A2 for Tanzania Mainland; July amounts are cheques-issued outturns and are provisional. |
| Not in the review | Debt-to-GDP, public-sector-only debt service ratios and a debt-sustainability rating are not published in this issue, so none is estimated here. |
| Rounding | Totals may differ from component sums by rounding. |
- Bank of Tanzania (October 2026), Monthly Economic Review, section 2.6 and Tables A1, A2, A4, A10.
- Ministry of Finance (Tanzania), debt and budget data as cited by the Bank of Tanzania.
- TICGL/TERI calculations on the above.
07 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How large is Tanzania's national debt in TZS trillion?
National debt was USD 52,344.2 million at end-September 2026, about TZS 138.3 trillion at the exchange rate implied by the Bank of Tanzania's totals (TZS 2,642 per USD). External debt is about TZS 97.2 trillion (70.3%) and domestic debt TZS 41.1 trillion (29.7%).
How much of Tanzania's debt is external?
70.3% of the national debt (USD 36,784.2 million) is external. Multilateral lenders hold 59.5% of it, commercial lenders 34.5%, bilateral lenders 4.2% and export-credit agencies 1.8%. The central government owes 83.4% of the external stock; the private sector 16.6%.
What is Tanzania's domestic debt?
TZS 41.1 trillion at end-September 2026, up 9.8% in a year. Government securities are 89.6% (Treasury bonds TZS 34.8 trillion, Treasury bills TZS 1.9 trillion); the Bank of Tanzania overdraft is TZS 4.3 trillion. Commercial banks hold 28.5% and pension funds 27.4%.
What are Tanzania's external debt arrears?
External debt arrears rose from USD 584.1 million in September 2025 to USD 1,197.4 million in September 2026 (about TZS 3.2 trillion), a 105% increase. Principal arrears are USD 867.5 million and interest arrears USD 329.9 million; commercial creditors account for USD 549.6 million of the principal.
How much does Tanzania pay each year in debt service?
In the 12 months to September 2026 external debt service was about USD 2.66 billion (about TZS 7.0 trillion), or 12.6% of exports of goods and services. The 2026/27 budget provides TZS 6.86 trillion for interest, 14.8% of budgeted revenue of TZS 46.23 trillion, plus TZS 7.84 trillion of principal repayments.
Which currencies is Tanzania's external debt in?
The US dollar is 65.3% of external debt, the euro 18.1%, the Chinese yuan 6.7% and other currencies 10.0%. A 10% depreciation of the shilling adds roughly TZS 9.7 trillion to the shilling value of external debt.
Is Tanzania's debt sustainable?
The Bank of Tanzania review does not publish debt-to-GDP or a sustainability rating. The indicators it supports are mixed: the debt stock is stable month to month, most external debt is concessional-style multilateral lending, and exports are growing 19.9%, but arrears have doubled, commercial debt is 34.5% of external debt, and interest is 14.8% of budgeted revenue.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Deni la Taifa la Tanzania, Oktoba 2026 (TZS trilioni): Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, deni la taifa mwishoni mwa Septemba 2026 lilikuwa USD milioni 52,344.2, sawa na takriban TZS trilioni 138.3. Kiasi hicho hakikubadilika kwa mwezi, lakini malimbikizo ya madeni ya nje yameongezeka mara mbili.
Muundo wa deni: deni la nje ni takriban TZS trilioni 97.2 (asilimia 70.3), na deni la ndani ni TZS trilioni 41.1 (asilimia 29.7). Asilimia 83.4 ya deni la nje linadaiwa na serikali kuu; taasisi za kimataifa (multilateral) zinashikilia asilimia 59.5 na wakopeshaji wa kibiashara asilimia 34.5. Dola ya Marekani ni asilimia 65.3 ya deni la nje na euro asilimia 18.1.
Deni la ndani: TZS trilioni 41.1, ongezeko la asilimia 9.8 kwa mwaka. Hati fungani ni TZS trilioni 34.8 (asilimia 84.6), hati za muda mfupi (bili) TZS trilioni 1.9, na overdraft ya Benki Kuu TZS trilioni 4.3. Benki za biashara (asilimia 28.5) na mifuko ya pensheni (asilimia 27.4) zinashikilia zaidi ya nusu ya deni.
Malimbikizo: malimbikizo ya madeni ya nje yalipanda kutoka USD milioni 584.1 hadi 1,197.4 (takriban TZS trilioni 3.2), ongezeko la asilimia 105. Malimbikizo ya kibiashara yalikaribia mara tatu, kutoka TZS trilioni 0.49 hadi 1.45.
Gharama ya deni: katika miezi 12 hadi Septemba 2026, huduma ya deni la nje ilikuwa takriban TZS trilioni 7.0 (USD bilioni 2.66), sawa na asilimia 12.6 ya mauzo ya nje ya bidhaa na huduma. Bajeti ya 2026/27 inatenga TZS trilioni 6.86 kwa riba (asilimia 14.8 ya mapato) na TZS trilioni 7.84 kwa marejesho ya mtaji.
Hatari ya kubadilika kwa shilingi: shilingi ikidhoofika kwa asilimia 10, deni la nje linaongezeka kwa takriban TZS trilioni 9.7 kwa thamani ya shilingi, zaidi ya mikopo mipya ya ndani yote iliyopangwa kwa mwaka (TZS trilioni 3.3).
Hitimisho na hatua: hali ya jumla ni tulivu, lakini shinikizo liko kwenye malimbikizo, mikopo ya kibiashara na riba. Ya kufuatilia: malimbikizo juu ya USD bilioni 1.5, mkopo wa kibiashara juu ya asilimia 35 ya deni la nje, bili ya riba ya ndani, na mwenendo wa shilingi dhidi ya dola.
- Deni la taifa: TZS trilioni 138.3 · Nje: 97.2 · Ndani: 41.1
- Malimbikizo ya nje: TZS trilioni 3.2 (+asilimia 105) · Huduma ya deni la nje (miezi 12): TZS trilioni 7.0
- Riba ya bajeti 2026/27: TZS trilioni 6.86 · Marejesho ya mtaji: TZS trilioni 7.84
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; Wizara ya Fedha; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.