A comprehensive reading of the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review (May 2026) and the NBS National Consumer Price Index (December 2025) — covering inflation dynamics, monetary policy, government fiscal operations, and external sector performance.
Tanzania's price stability regime faced renewed pressure in April 2026, with headline inflation jumping sharply to 4.0%, driven primarily by fuel price pass-through effects from the Middle East geopolitical conflict. This section traces the inflation trajectory from December 2025 through April 2026.
The sharp jump from 3.2% in March 2026 to 4.0% in April 2026 — a 0.8 percentage point monthly spike — represents the largest single-month acceleration in Tanzania's recent price history. The trigger is unambiguously external: crude oil prices surged from USD 95.58/barrel in March 2026 to an average of USD 103.91/barrel in April, peaking at USD 117.80/barrel. This transmitted directly into transport costs (which recorded a staggering 9.2% annual inflation in April) and indirectly into food prices. While domestic fundamentals remain supportive — adequate NFRA food stocks (500,962 tonnes), a stable shilling, and government subsidies — the near-term inflation outlook remains exposed to external geopolitical risks.
| COICOP Division | Weight (%) | Index Dec-24 | Index Nov-25 | Index Dec-25 | 1-Month Chg (%) | 12-Month Chg (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 28.2 | 124.27 | 129.98 | 132.56 | +2.0 | +6.7 |
| Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco | 1.9 | 110.33 | 113.67 | 114.08 | +0.4 | +3.4 |
| Clothing & Footwear | 10.8 | 113.17 | 115.26 | 115.46 | +0.2 | +2.0 |
| Housing, Water, Electricity & Fuels | 15.1 | 115.59 | 117.70 | 118.27 | +0.5 | +2.3 |
| Furnishings & Household Maintenance | 7.9 | 114.38 | 117.61 | 117.81 | +0.2 | +3.0 |
| Health | 2.5 | 108.43 | 109.70 | 109.79 | +0.1 | +1.3 |
| Transport | 14.1 | 118.37 | 121.50 | 123.19 | +1.4 | +4.1 |
| Information & Communication | 5.4 | 106.16 | 106.49 | 106.70 | +0.2 | +0.5 |
| Recreation, Sport & Culture | 1.6 | 110.54 | 110.89 | 110.82 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Education Services | 2.0 | 108.84 | 112.01 | 112.01 | 0.0 | +2.9 |
| Restaurants & Accommodation | 6.6 | 116.39 | 117.49 | 117.48 | 0.0 | +0.9 |
| Insurance & Financial Services | 2.1 | 101.92 | 102.27 | 102.34 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| Personal Care & Miscellaneous | 2.1 | 116.64 | 118.40 | 118.09 | −0.3 | +1.2 |
| TOTAL — ALL ITEMS INDEX | 100.0 | 116.87 | 120.01 | 121.11 | +0.9 | +3.6 |
| Core Index | 73.9 | 114.45 | 116.77 | 117.26 | +0.4 | +2.5 |
| Non-Core Index | 26.1 | 123.73 | 129.21 | 132.04 | +2.2 | +6.7 |
| Energy, Fuel & Utilities Index | 5.7 | 125.25 | 129.33 | 131.02 | +1.3 | +4.6 |
| Main Groups | Weight (%) | MoM Apr-25 (%) | MoM Mar-26 (%) | MoM Apr-26 (%) | Annual Apr-25 (%) | Annual Mar-26 (%) | Annual Apr-26 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 28.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.7 |
| Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Clothing & Footwear | 10.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Housing, Water & Fuels | 15.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Furnishings & Maintenance | 7.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Health | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Transport | 14.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 9.2 |
| Information & Communication | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Education Services | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| ALL ITEMS – Headline | 100.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| Core | 73.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| Non-Core | 26.1 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 6.3 |
| Energy, Fuel & Utilities | 5.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 5.3 |
Government revenue collection in March 2026 significantly exceeded targets, driven by robust tax performance — particularly income taxes. This section analyses the revenue and expenditure structure of the central government for the fiscal year 2025/26.
| Revenue Category | Budget 2025/26 (TZS Bn) | Jul–Mar Estimate (TZS Bn) | Jul–Mar Actual (TZS Bn) | Mar-26 Estimate (TZS Bn) | Mar-26 Actual (TZS Bn) | Performance vs Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue (incl. LGAs) | 40,466.1 | 29,776.2 | 31,406.1 | 3,534.7 | 3,836.9 | +8.5% |
| Central Government Revenue | 36,857.7 | 28,499.5 | 30,182.8 | 3,387.4 | 3,703.3 | +9.3% |
| Tax Revenue | 32,176.0 | 23,799.8 | 26,037.6 | 2,994.9 | 3,317.5 | +10.8% |
| Taxes on Imports | 11,563.0 | 8,698.5 | 9,211.0 | 941.1 | 1,093.2 | +16.2% |
| Sales/VAT & Excise (Local Goods) | 7,016.5 | 4,980.5 | 4,809.8 | 538.8 | 494.6 | −8.2% |
| Income Taxes | 11,367.9 | 8,372.0 | 10,314.0 | 1,320.9 | 1,547.8 | +17.2% |
| Other Taxes | 4,887.7 | 1,748.8 | 1,702.8 | 194.1 | 182.0 | −6.2% |
| Non-Tax Revenue | 4,681.7 | 4,699.7 | 4,145.3 | 392.4 | 385.8 | −1.7% |
| LGA Own Sources | 1,680.5 | 1,276.7 | 1,223.2 | 147.4 | 133.6 | −9.4% |
| Expenditure Category | Budget 2025/26 (TZS Bn) | Jul–Mar Estimate (TZS Bn) | Jul–Mar Actual (TZS Bn) | Mar-26 Estimate (TZS Bn) | Mar-26 Actual (TZS Bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Expenditure | 48,775.0 | 36,263.7 | 35,334.9 | 4,191.0 | 4,273.4 |
| Recurrent Expenditure | 31,281.3 | 22,903.2 | 22,928.5 | 2,584.7 | 2,545.3 |
| Wages & Salaries | 10,917.5 | 9,789.8 | 9,842.5 | 1,108.9 | 1,128.4 |
| Interest Payments (Total) | 6,493.7 | 4,986.6 | 4,149.3 | 636.8 | 379.1 |
| — Domestic | 3,697.3 | 2,856.0 | 2,718.3 | 351.4 | 236.1 |
| — Foreign | 2,796.4 | 2,130.6 | 1,431.0 | 285.4 | 142.9 |
| Other Goods, Services & Transfers | 7,088.6 | 8,126.8 | 8,936.6 | 839.0 | 1,037.9 |
| Development Expenditure & Net Lending | 17,493.7 | 13,360.5 | 12,406.4 | 1,606.3 | 1,728.1 |
| Local | 12,117.8 | 9,225.5 | 9,570.2 | 920.6 | 989.4 |
| Foreign | 5,375.9 | 4,135.0 | 2,836.2 | 685.7 | 738.6 |
The central government's revenue performance in the first nine months of FY2025/26 (July 2025–March 2026) is notable: actual collections of TZS 30,182.8 billion exceeded the period estimate of TZS 28,499.5 billion by 5.9%. The standout performer was income tax, which surpassed its March 2026 monthly target by 17.2%, reflecting improvements in tax administration and compliance enforcement by TRA. Import tax collections also exceeded targets by 16.2%, consistent with the 16.4% growth in goods imports recorded in the year ending April 2026. However, VAT on domestic goods underperformed by 8.2% in March, suggesting pressure on formal sector consumption. On the expenditure side, development spending of TZS 1,728.1 billion in March 2026 exceeded estimates, a positive signal for capital formation. The overall budget balance showed a deficit of TZS 244 billion (cheques issued basis), below the estimated TZS 586 billion — indicating better fiscal management than planned.
The Bank of Tanzania's Monetary Policy Committee maintained the Central Bank Rate at 5.75% in April 2026, while narrowing the CBR corridor from 200 to 150 basis points. Private sector credit growth remained strong at 23.6%, led by trade, mining, and transport sectors.
| Interest Rate Indicator | Apr-25 (%) | Dec-25 (%) | Jan-26 (%) | Feb-26 (%) | Mar-26 (%) | Apr-26 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Lending Rate | 15.16 | 15.24 | 15.10 | 15.11 | 15.11 | 15.33 |
| Short-Term Lending Rate (≤1yr) | 16.15 | 15.46 | 15.49 | 15.41 | 15.45 | 15.31 |
| Negotiated Lending Rate | 12.88 | 12.38 | 12.25 | 12.19 | 12.21 | 12.56 |
| Overall Time Deposit Rate | 7.82 | 8.36 | 8.33 | 8.32 | 8.33 | 8.54 |
| 12-Month Deposit Rate | 9.27 | 9.58 | 9.70 | 9.82 | 9.60 | 9.81 |
| Savings Deposit Rate | 2.89 | 3.02 | 2.94 | 2.98 | 2.89 | 2.91 |
| Short-Term Interest Spread | 6.88 | 5.88 | 5.79 | 5.59 | 5.85 | 5.50 |
| Overall Treasury Bills Rate | 8.86 | 5.87 | 5.89 | 5.68 | 5.21 | 5.06 |
| 5-Year Treasury Bond WAY | 13.14 | 10.54 | 10.54 | 10.54 | 10.54 | 9.54 |
| 10-Year Treasury Bond WAY | 14.26 | 12.45 | 11.30 | 11.30 | 11.30 | 9.40 |
Tanzania's exports rose 13.5% to USD 18.9 billion in the year ending April 2026, propelled by gold and tourism. The current account deficit widened to USD 2,652 million due to robust import growth driven by capital goods and industrial supplies. Foreign exchange reserves remain adequate at 4.4 months of import cover.
| Export Category | 2024 (USD Mn) | 2025 (USD Mn) | 2026p (USD Mn) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traditional Exports | 1,473.3 | 1,491.9 | 1,706.8 | +14.4% |
| Cashewnuts | 541.7 | 398.8 | 517.4 | +29.7% |
| Coffee | 224.7 | 334.3 | 420.0 | +25.6% |
| Tobacco | 409.6 | 490.8 | 600.0 | +22.2% |
| Gold | 3,133.3 | 3,821.2 | 5,437.9 | +42.3% |
| Manufactured Goods | 1,359.6 | 1,389.9 | 1,864.6 | +34.2% |
| Travel (Tourism) | 3,903.1 | 4,006.3 (est.) | 4,385.3 | +9.5% |
| Total Exports of Goods & Services | 14,281.7 | 16,625.0 | 18,876.7 | +13.5% |
Tanzania's total national debt reached USD 51,067 million at end-April 2026. External debt dominates at 70.4% of total, with multilateral creditors holding the largest share. Domestic debt grew to TZS 39,336 billion, largely driven by Treasury bond issuances.
| Debt Category | Apr-25 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | Change (MoM) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total National Debt (USD Mn) | 46,738.5 | 50,803.5 | 51,067.2 | +0.5% |
| External Debt Stock (USD Mn) | 33,764.5 | 35,886.2 | 35,949.6 | +0.2% |
| Multilateral | 18,931.8 | 20,803.3 | 20,926.1 | +0.6% |
| Commercial | 11,869.4 | 12,429.1 | 12,345.0 | −0.7% |
| Bilateral | 1,463.2 | 1,553.5 | 1,558.4 | +0.3% |
| Domestic Debt Stock (TZS Bn) | 34,759.9 | 38,447.9 | 39,335.8 | +2.3% |
| Government Securities | 29,582.4 | 33,321.1 | 33,438.1 | +0.4% |
| Government Bonds | 27,459.6 | 31,609.9 | 31,783.7 | +0.5% |
| Overdraft | 5,159.1 | 5,126.8 | 5,897.6 | +15.0% |
Global growth is projected to moderate to between 2.5% and 3.1% in 2026 amid geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and trade policy uncertainty. These headwinds have significant transmission channels into Tanzania's economy through fuel, food, and fertilizer import costs.
| Commodity | Apr-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil Average (USD/bbl) | 65.91 | 66.46 | 60.88 | 63.65 | 68.01 | 95.58 | 103.91 | +57.7% |
| Gold (USD/troy oz) | 3,217.64 | 3,667.68 | 4,309.23 | 4,752.75 | 5,019.97 | 4,855.54 | 4,721.42 | +46.8% |
| Coffee Arabica (USD/kg) | 8.64 | 8.83 | 8.40 | 8.02 | 7.08 | 7.37 | 7.30 | −15.5% |
| Coffee Robusta (USD/kg) | 5.43 | 4.66 | 4.20 | 4.24 | 3.96 | 3.90 | 3.63 | −33.1% |
| Wheat Hard (USD/tonne) | 249.58 | 233.76 | 242.80 | 249.90 | 257.55 | 275.91 | 282.00 | +13.0% |
| DAP Fertilizer (USD/tonne) | 635.00 | 780.63 | 627.50 | 619.20 | 626.50 | 658.25 | 725.25 | +14.2% |
| Urea (USD/tonne) | 386.88 | 461.13 | 392.50 | 415.40 | 472.00 | 725.63 | 856.88 | +121.5% |
The 121.5% year-on-year surge in urea fertilizer prices (from USD 386.88 to USD 856.88 per tonne) represents a critical risk to Tanzania's agricultural sector and food security. Combined with the 14.2% rise in DAP prices, Tanzania's farmers face sharply higher input costs for the 2026 planting season. The government's fertilizer subsidy program will face heightened fiscal pressure. TICGL recommends close monitoring of fertilizer import volumes and subsidy budget utilization in the months ahead.
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