01 — OverviewExecutive Summary
Every national development plan needs a stable macroeconomic floor to stand on. FYDP IV's ten-sector transformation agenda and Dira 2050's US$1 trillion, US$7,000-per-capita ambition both assume low inflation, a credible exchange rate, adequate reserves, and a financial sector willing and able to lend. That floor is precisely what the Bank of Tanzania's (BOT) Strategic Plan 2026/27-2030/31, published June 2026 to mark the Bank's 60th anniversary, is designed to deliver. This report reads the Plan against two questions: does it genuinely align with FYDP IV and Dira 2050, and is it ambitious and credible enough to protect Tanzania's growth over the next five years.
On alignment, the answer is a clear yes on paper — BOT's own strategy map lines its three thematic areas up directly against Dira 2050's pillars and FYDP IV's competitiveness agenda. On ambition and credibility, the picture is more mixed. BOT's five-year track record from 2021/22 to 2025/26 was strong: most monetary and financial-stability targets were met or exceeded, sometimes by a wide margin. But several of the new 2029/30 targets are set below levels BOT has already achieved, several key figures are inconsistent between different tables in BOT's own document, and the headline GDP growth target sits below what FYDP IV itself is asking for.
- The previous plan mostly over-delivered. Inflation stayed inside the 3-5 percent band, GDP growth hit 6.2 percent against a 6 percent target, and credit to the private sector reached 22.8 percent of GDP, just above target — while capital adequacy, non-performing loans, and payment-system reliability all beat their targets comfortably.
- The new plan's boldest number is private-sector credit. BOT wants credit to the private sector to climb from 22.8 percent to at least 30 percent of GDP by 2029/30 — a genuinely stretching target that, if achieved, would materially expand the financing available to the private investment FYDP IV is counting on.
- Some targets are floors, not stretch goals. Capital adequacy (target ≥14.5% vs an actual 21.32%), the non-performing loan ratio (≤5% vs an actual 2.96%), and foreign reserve cover (≥4.0 months vs an actual 4.7) are all set below what BOT already achieved in 2025/26 — sensible as regulatory minimums, but not evidence of rising ambition on their own.
- The document contradicts itself on two important numbers. The detailed KPI table sets GDP growth at ≥7.2 percent and foreign investment income at ≥20bps above the Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) target; BOT's own summary infographic later in the same document shows 6.0 percent and 10bps respectively — a gap TICGL flags for BOT and readers alike.
- Institutional and climate capacity building is the least visible but most structural theme — AI maturity, data governance, ESG integration and emissions reduction targets that matter for whether BOT can execute the rest of the Plan at all.
Read this alongside TICGL's flagship Dira 2050 policy-gaps analysis
This report is best read together with TICGL/TERI's wider assessment of the policy gaps standing between Tanzania and Dira 2050's US$1 trillion, US$7,000-per-capita ambition by 2050 — the financing, productivity and institutional gaps that BOT's monetary and financial-stability mandate must help close from the macro side.
Read: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050 →02 — ContextWhat Is the BOT Strategic Plan 2026/27-2030/31?
The Plan is BOT's fifth-generation corporate strategy, published in June 2026 under Governor and Board Chairman Emmanuel Mpawe Tutuba, coinciding with the Bank's 60th anniversary (1966-2026). It restates BOT's mission — to maintain price stability and the integrity of the financial system for inclusive economic growth — and sets out a results-based framework built predominantly on the Management by Objectives (MBO) methodology, partly supplemented by the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) technique and a Performance Measurement Process (PuMP®) for tracking execution.
Seven Key Strategic Focus Areas
- Enhancing Monetary Policy and Price Stability
- Deepening Domestic Financial Markets and Foreign Reserve Opportunities
- Strengthening Financial Stability, Inclusion, Payment Systems and Regulation
- Enhancing Digital Transformation, Data Governance and Operational Resilience
- Promoting Climate Change Resilience and Sustainability
- Enhancing Institutional Excellence
- Improving Gender Equality and Diversity
Three Thematic Areas, Six Strategic Objectives
- Theme 1 — Macroeconomic Stability: monetary policy effectiveness, foreign reserves, deepening domestic financial markets.
- Theme 2 — Stability of the Financial Sector: financial-sector safety and inclusiveness, banking and currency services, climate resilience.
- Theme 3 — Organizational Capacity: institutional efficiency, organisational effectiveness and sustainability.
Each objective carries defined intended results, KPIs, a 2026/27 baseline, a 2029/30 target, and a named strategic initiative with an assigned departmental "champion" responsible for delivery.
In his foreword, Governor Tutuba reports that the outgoing 2021/22-2025/26 plan achieved and, in his words, surpassed its objectives: core and headline inflation averaged 2.9 percent and 3.1 percent respectively, the exchange rate was managed through external pressure, foreign reserves were strengthened partly through domestic gold purchases, and real GDP growth averaged 5.5 percent. The new Plan is framed as building on that record while adding a new Artificial Intelligence and Data Management strategy and a stronger climate-resilience agenda, developed against a backdrop of rising global geopolitical risk.
Structurally, the document also discloses BOT's capital works pipeline: two multi-year construction projects (Bank Officers' Apartments and Senior Staff Housing Apartments, both in Kigoma, on a design-and-build basis) plus a further sixteen new projects for 2026/27 alone, split evenly between construction and ICT — a reminder that institutional capacity building sits alongside monetary policy as a genuine budget line, not an afterthought.
03 — Policy AlignmentHow the Plan Maps Onto FYDP IV and Dira 2050
BOT's own alignment diagram is unusually explicit for a central bank strategy document: it draws direct lines from each of its three thematic areas to specific national frameworks, rather than gesturing at alignment in prose alone.
| National Framework | Core National Priority | BOT Thematic Area It Feeds |
|---|---|---|
| Dira 2050 / Tanzania Vision 2050 | Strong, inclusive and competitive economy; human capabilities and social development; environmental integrity and climate resilience | Macroeconomic Stability; Stability of the Financial Sector |
| FYDP IV 2026/27-2030/31 | Re-energising competitiveness and industrialisation for human development | Macroeconomic Stability (credit growth, reserves, market depth) |
| Zanzibar Development Vision 2050 / ZADEP | Upper-middle-income status via sustainable, inclusive human development; blue economy | Stability of the Financial Sector (inclusion, banking services) |
| Financial Sector Development Master Plan 2020/21-2029/30 | Strengthen science, technology and innovation capacity across production, manufacturing and services | Stability of the Financial Sector |
| National Financial Inclusion Framework 2023-2028 | Broaden access to affordable, quality financial services | Stability of the Financial Sector (inclusion KPIs) |
| NDC / National Environmental Policy / Climate Change Response Strategy | Climate resilience; ESG principles in supervision and operations; climate-resilient financing | Stability of the Financial Sector (climate objective); Organizational Capacity (ESG, emissions) |
The clearest link runs through Theme 1. FYDP IV's growth and industrialisation agenda depends on a stable shilling, contained inflation, adequate reserves, and — critically — a banking sector willing to extend credit at scale. BOT's monetary-policy and financial-market-deepening objectives target exactly those inputs, and its 70 percent-private-financing assumption for FYDP IV infrastructure (documented in TICGL's companion analysis on infrastructure and human-capital spending) is only credible if private-sector credit genuinely expands the way BOT's Plan targets it to.
Human capital and social development is one of FYDP IV's five co-equal national priorities, yet BOT's Plan engages with it only indirectly, through financial inclusion (percentage of adults with accounts, the Tanzania Financial Inclusion Index) rather than through any direct link to health, education or skills financing. That is a reasonable division of labour for a central bank, but it means BOT's Plan alone cannot answer the infrastructure-versus-human-capital budget question TICGL examines elsewhere — it only sets the financing conditions under which that debate plays out.
04 — The Track RecordHow Did the 2021/22-2025/26 Plan Actually Perform?
Before judging the new Plan's ambition, it helps to see how BOT's previous five-year plan performed against its own targets. The Bank's Corporate Performance Review (Q3 2025/26 data) shows a strong record on macroeconomic and financial-stability metrics, with two notable misses.
| Indicator | Baseline (2021/22) | Target (2025/26) | Actual (Q3 2025/26) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core inflation | 2.1% | 3% - 5% | 3.4% | Within band ✓ |
| Headline inflation | 3.6% | 3% - 5% | 4.2% | Within band ✓ |
| GDP growth rate | 4.5% | ≥6% | 6.2% | Exceeded ✓ |
| Credit to private sector / GDP | 13.2% | ≥22% | 22.8% | Exceeded ✓ |
| 7-day IBCM rate stability | None (n/a) | ±200bps of CBR | ±200 | Met ✓ |
| Months of import cover | 6.1 | ≥4.0 | 4.7 | Met ✓ (but declined) |
| Capital adequacy ratio | 17.20% | ≥14.5% | 21.32% | Exceeded ✓ |
| Asset quality (NPL ratio) | 9.68% | ≤5% | 2.96% | Exceeded ✓ |
| Liquidity ratio | 32.90% | ≥20% | 26.88% | Met ✓ (but declined) |
| Payment system reliability | 98% (2023/24) | ≥98% | 99.97% | Exceeded ✓ |
| Financial Inclusion Index | 0.69 (2024/25) | ≥0.74 | 0.83 | Exceeded ✓ |
| % of adults with bank accounts | 60% (2023) | 80% | 73.80% | Below target ✗ |
| EFT settlement period | T+1 | T+0 | T+1 | Not met ✗ |
| Customer satisfaction, banking & currency services | 76% | 80% | 96.90% | Exceeded ✓ |
| Compliance with BOT climate/sustainability guidelines | 31% | 40% | 40% | Met exactly ✓ |
⚠ Figures are Q3 2025/26 actuals as reported in BOT's Corporate Performance Review; some Theme 3 (Organizational Capacity) figures in BOT's own summary tables render with partial overlaps and are treated qualitatively rather than quoted precisely in this report.
Previous Plan: Baseline vs Target vs Actual, Core Macro Indicators
Inflation: Baseline vs Actual (Q3 2025/26)
Financial Soundness: Baseline vs Actual (Q3 2025/26)
Of the fifteen indicators tracked here, twelve were met or exceeded, often comfortably. The financial sector's underlying soundness improved sharply — non-performing loans fell from 9.68 percent to 2.96 percent, and total banking assets nearly doubled over the period, according to BOT's own Situation Analysis. That is the strongest evidence in the Plan that BOT can execute what it commits to, and it is the basis on which the new 2029/30 targets should be judged.
05 — The New CommitmentsWhat BOT Is Targeting by 2029/30
The new Plan resets baselines to 2026/27 opening figures and sets fresh targets for 2029/30 (the Plan's fourth year, one year short of its formal 2030/31 close, per BOT's own "Plan at a Glance" tables). The clearest way to read these is theme by theme.
Theme 1 — Macroeconomic Stability
| Objective | KPI | Baseline | Target 2029/30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy Effectiveness | Core inflation rate | 2.2% | 3% - 5% |
| Headline inflation rate | 3.4% | 3% - 5% | |
| GDP growth rate | 6.2% | ≥7.2% | |
| 7-day IBCM rate stability | ±200 bps | ±150 bps of CBR | |
| Credit to private sector / GDP | 22.8% | ≥30% | |
| Foreign Reserves | Months of import cover | 4.7 | ≥4.0 |
| Foreign investment income | 39 bps above SAA target | ≥20 bps above SAA target | |
| Domestic Financial Markets | Spread in 7-day IBCM rate | 1.6% | ≤2% |
| Spread in IFEM | TZS 57 | ≤TZS 20 | |
| Share of non-traditional debt issuance | 0% | ≥10% |
Credit to the Private Sector: The Plan's Boldest Target
Theme 2 — Stability of the Financial Sector
| Objective | KPI | Baseline | Target 2029/30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safety, Efficiency, Soundness & Inclusiveness | Capital adequacy ratio | 21.32% | ≥14.5% |
| Asset quality (NPL) ratio | 2.96% | ≤5% | |
| Liquidity ratio | 26.88% | ≥20% | |
| Financial System Stability Index | 0.3 | Within ±3 | |
| Availability of Systemically Important Payment Systems | 99.97% | 99.9% | |
| Tanzania Financial Inclusion Index (TanFiX) | 0.83 | ≥0.75 | |
| % of adults with transactable accounts | 78.3% | 87% | |
| Banking & Currency Services | Customer satisfaction level | 96.2% | 98% |
| Currency durability (higher denomination) | 2 years | 2.4 years | |
| Currency stock level (unissued) | 31 months | ≥24 months | |
| Climate Resilience | Compliance with BOT climate/sustainability guidelines | 40% | 75% |
Financial Sector Soundness Targets vs Current Position
Financial Inclusion: Baseline vs 2029/30 Target
Theme 3 — Organizational Capacity
| Objective | KPI | Baseline | Target 2029/30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Institutional Efficiency | Expenditure coverage ratio | 1.9 | 1 |
| Strategic Management Maturity Level | Level 3 | Level 4 | |
| % achievement of strategic result | 81.5% | 98% | |
| AI Maturity Index | 1.5 | ≥3 | |
| IT Maturity Level | Level 3 | Level 4 | |
| % employee satisfaction with work environment | 78% | 90% | |
| Organizational Effectiveness & Sustainability | Risk maturity level | Level 3 | Level 5 |
| Net risk level | Yellow | Green | |
| % ESG integration | 15% | ≥50% | |
| Bank's GHG emissions level | 7,594.13 tCO₂e (100%) | 4,936.18 tCO₂e (65%) |
Digital & Institutional Maturity: Baseline vs Target
Governance & ESG: Baseline vs Target
Bank of Tanzania's Own Carbon Footprint: Reduction Target
06 — Reading the Fine PrintWhere BOT's Own Tables Disagree With Each Other
A close read of the Plan turns up several places where the detailed "Plan at a Glance" KPI tables (pages 7-9) do not match the summary infographic later in the same document ("Bank's Key Performance Indicators and Targets by 2030/31", page 28). TICGL flags these not to discredit the Plan — its underlying direction is sound — but because published targets should be internally consistent, and readers relying on any single page of the source PDF could come away with a different number.
| Indicator | Detailed table (pp. 7-9) | Summary infographic (p. 28) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth rate target | ≥7.2% | 6.0% | A more than one percentage point gap on the Plan's single most-watched macro number |
| Foreign investment income target | ≥20 bps above SAA | 10 bps above SAA | Materially different ambition for reserve-management returns |
| Legal & regulatory compliance target | 95% | 100% | Minor, but a compliance target should not be ambiguous |
| Bank's emissions-reduction target | 65% of baseline remains (≈35% cut) | ≤35% of baseline (≈65% cut) | Nearly doubles the implied ambition depending on which figure is used |
Investors, development partners and researchers who cite a single BOT target risk quoting the wrong one. TICGL recommends BOT publish a single reconciled KPI annex — the Plan's own Companion Document, referenced but not included in the main Plan, may already resolve some of these gaps, and TICGL will update this analysis if and when that document becomes publicly available.
07 — Institutional Self-AssessmentBOT's Own SWOC Analysis
BOT's Situation Analysis includes a candid Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Challenges (SWOC) assessment, which is useful context for judging how realistic the Organizational Capacity targets are.
Strengths
- Strong working environment supporting staff productivity and retention
- Competent, experienced, committed personnel with solid governance practices
- Reliable ICT systems and interoperable payment infrastructure
- Strategically located branches and robust operational frameworks
- Proactive monetary policy framework and diversified foreign reserves
Weaknesses
- Inadequate risk-management culture and handling of strategic-project and sustainability risks
- ICT infrastructure insufficient to fully support operations
- Slow adoption of global standards and technological innovation
- Aging infrastructure, limited office space and security concerns
- Inefficient processes and generational-diversity challenges causing delays
Opportunities
- Stable political and economic environment supports policy implementation
- Technological innovation and expanding financial-service networks
- Strong government support and stakeholder collaboration
- Access to international training and global best practice
- Gold reserves, diversified investments and rising investor participation
Challenges
- Rising cyber threats and fraud risk to financial stability
- Global financial-market volatility and external shocks complicating policy
- Data unreliability and rapid technological change
- Structural issues: dollarization, market segmentation, high borrowing costs
- Climate-change risk and still-limited financial inclusion
Nearly every listed weakness and challenge — inadequate risk culture, insufficient ICT, dollarization, cyber risk, data unreliability — maps directly onto a Theme 3 KPI in the new Plan (risk maturity, IT maturity, AI maturity, data-management maturity). That is a good sign: BOT appears to be building its 2029/30 targets around problems it has itself already diagnosed, rather than setting generic aspirational goals.
08 — TICGL AnalysisSo, Will This Plan Protect Tanzania's Growth?
Putting the pieces together — the alignment mapping, the strong prior track record, the new targets and the internal inconsistencies — TICGL's assessment is that the Plan is a credible, well-aligned foundation for FYDP IV and Dira 2050, with three qualifications that matter for how it should be read.
1. Macro stability is necessary but not sufficient for FYDP IV
Low inflation, adequate reserves and deep financial markets are the conditions private capital needs before it will commit to the PPPs and FDI that FYDP IV's 70:30 financing model depends on, as TICGL's companion infrastructure-versus-human-capital analysis sets out. BOT's Plan supplies those conditions; it cannot, on its own, guarantee the PPP pipeline or private appetite actually materialises.
2. The credit-to-GDP target is the single biggest lever
Lifting credit to the private sector from 22.8 percent to 30 percent of GDP by 2029/30 would be a genuine structural shift for an economy where dollarization and market segmentation still push up borrowing costs, per BOT's own SWOC. If achieved, it materially widens the pool of financing available for both infrastructure and human-capital-adjacent private investment (health facilities, ed-tech, agribusiness) — arguably a more powerful lever for inclusive growth than any single BOT KPI.
3. The GDP growth target undershoots FYDP IV's own ambition
FYDP IV's headline target is 10.5 percent real GDP growth by 2030/31 (per TICGL's FYDP IV research); BOT's detailed table targets ≥7.2 percent — and its own summary infographic shows just 6.0 percent. Central-bank growth targets are typically set conservatively to preserve credibility, but the gap between BOT's figures and FYDP IV's headline number is wide enough that either FYDP IV's growth ambition, or BOT's own monetary stance, may need to be reconciled publicly.
4. Several "targets" are really floors, and that is fine — but should be labelled as such
Capital adequacy, NPL ratio, liquidity ratio and import cover are all set at levels BOT has already surpassed. These read less as ambition for 2029/30 and more as regulatory minimums BOT will not allow itself to fall below — a legitimate risk-management stance, but worth distinguishing clearly from genuinely stretching targets like the credit-to-GDP or AI-maturity goals, so external readers do not mistake a floor for a forecast.
BOT's Strategic Plan 2026/27-2030/31 is structurally well-aligned with FYDP IV and Dira 2050 and builds on a genuinely strong five-year delivery record. It is likely to protect — rather than drive — Tanzania's growth: its job is to keep inflation, the exchange rate and the financial system stable enough that FYDP IV's growth and private-financing ambitions have a fighting chance, not to generate that growth itself. Whether Tanzania hits FYDP IV's 10.5 percent growth ambition depends far more on fiscal policy, the PPP pipeline, tax-to-GDP expansion and human-capital investment — the levers examined in TICGL's other FYDP IV research — than on anything within BOT's own mandate.
09 — TICGL RecommendationsGetting the Most Out of BOT's Plan
- Publish a single reconciled KPI table resolving the GDP growth, foreign-investment-income, compliance and emissions discrepancies between the detailed tables and the summary infographic, ideally as a published erratum or via the referenced Companion Document.
- Distinguish regulatory floors from stretch targets in future public communication — capital adequacy, NPL and liquidity minimums serve a different purpose than the credit-to-GDP or AI-maturity targets and should be presented differently to avoid understating the Plan's genuine ambition.
- Publish an explicit reconciliation between BOT's GDP growth target and FYDP IV's 10.5 percent headline ambition, so investors and development partners are not left guessing which growth figure is the operative national target.
- Track private-sector credit growth by sector (agriculture, MSME, infrastructure-adjacent, health/education-adjacent) so the 30-percent-of-GDP target can be assessed not just on scale but on whether it reaches the sectors FYDP IV and Dira 2050 most need financed.
- Report AI Maturity Index and Risk Maturity Level progress annually and publicly, given how directly these targets map onto the cyber, data-reliability and risk-culture weaknesses BOT itself identified in its SWOC analysis.
10 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What is the Bank of Tanzania's Strategic Plan 2026/27-2030/31?
BOT's five-year corporate strategy covering monetary policy, foreign reserves, financial markets, financial-sector stability, banking services, climate resilience and organisational capacity, explicitly aligned with FYDP IV and Dira 2050.
Does BOT's Strategic Plan align with FYDP IV and Dira 2050?
Yes, structurally — BOT's own alignment diagram maps its three thematic areas directly onto Dira 2050's pillars and FYDP IV's competitiveness agenda, with BOT's price and financial-stability mandate forming the macroeconomic base those plans depend on.
What GDP growth does BOT's plan target by 2029/30?
The detailed KPI table sets a target of at least 7.2 percent, though BOT's own summary infographic later in the document shows a lower 6.0 percent figure for the same indicator — an inconsistency TICGL flags for clarification.
Did BOT meet its previous five-year targets from 2021/22 to 2025/26?
Largely yes. Inflation stayed within target, GDP growth and credit to the private sector both beat target, and capital adequacy, NPL and payment reliability were all exceeded. The EFT settlement-time target and the share of adults with bank accounts were the two clear misses.
What is the biggest target BOT has set for credit to the private sector?
Credit to the private sector reaching at least 30 percent of GDP by 2029/30, up from 22.8 percent in 2025/26 — one of the most consequential targets in the Plan for private financing of FYDP IV.
11 — MethodologySources & Notes
- Bank of Tanzania — Strategic Plan 2026/27-2030/31 (June 2026), including the Foreword, Situation Analysis, Corporate Performance Review 2021/22-2025/26, SWOC Analysis, Plan at a Glance KPI tables, and Bank's Key Performance Indicators and Targets by 2030/31 summary (bot.go.tz).
- TICGL/TERI prior research: "What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050," "Infrastructure vs Human Capital: Where Is Tanzania's Budget Really Going?," and TICGL's FYDP IV budget series.
- Ministry of Finance Tanzania — FY2026/27 Budget context and FYDP IV framework documents, as cross-referenced in TICGL's related analyses.
- This page is an independent analytical summary prepared by TICGL/TERI based on BOT's published Strategic Plan document and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Figures reflect BOT's own reporting as published; where BOT's document contains internal inconsistencies, both figures are disclosed.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Je, Mpango Mkakati wa BOT wa 2026/27-2030/31 Unaunga Mkono FYDP IV na Dira 2050? Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT) imezindua Mpango Mkakati wa miaka mitano (2026/27-2030/31) unaolenga kudumisha uthabiti wa bei, kuimarisha mfumo wa fedha, na kuongeza mikopo kwa sekta binafsi kutoka asilimia 22.8 hadi angalau asilimia 30 ya Pato la Taifa (GDP) ifikapo 2029/30. Mpango huu umeunganishwa moja kwa moja na Dira 2050 na Mpango wa Nne wa Maendeleo wa Taifa (FYDP IV), ukiwa msingi wa kiuchumi unaohitajika ili malengo ya uwekezaji na ukuaji yaweze kufikiwa.
Uchambuzi wa TICGL unaonyesha kuwa katika miaka mitano iliyopita (2021/22-2025/26), BOT ilifanikiwa kufikia — na mara nyingi kuzidi — malengo yake mengi: mfumuko wa bei ulibaki ndani ya wigo wa asilimia 3-5, ukuaji wa GDP ulifikia asilimia 6.2 (zaidi ya lengo la asilimia 6), na mikopo kwa sekta binafsi ilifikia asilimia 22.8 ya GDP. Hata hivyo, malengo mapya ya 2029/30 yana changamoto kadhaa: baadhi ya malengo (kama uwiano wa mtaji wa benki na akiba ya fedha za kigeni) ni chini ya kiwango ambacho BOT tayari imekifikia, na kuna tofauti kati ya jedwali la kina la malengo (linaloonyesha ukuaji wa GDP wa angalau asilimia 7.2) na muhtasari wa mwisho wa hati hiyo (unaoonyesha asilimia 6.0 tu) — jambo ambalo TICGL inapendekeza BOT ilifafanue.
Uchambuzi wa TICGL unahitimisha kuwa Mpango wa BOT ni msingi imara na unaoendana vizuri na Dira 2050 na FYDP IV, lakini jukumu lake ni "kulinda" ukuaji wa uchumi kwa kudumisha uthabiti wa fedha, si "kuuzalisha" ukuaji huo. Kufikiwa kwa lengo kuu la FYDP IV la ukuaji wa asilimia 10.5 kunategemea zaidi sera za kibajeti, mfumo wa ubia wa umma na binafsi (PPP), upanuzi wa mfumo wa kodi, na uwekezaji kwenye maendeleo ya watu — maeneo yanayochambuliwa kwa kina katika tafiti nyingine za TICGL kuhusu FYDP IV.
- Mikopo kwa sekta binafsi: kutoka asilimia 22.8 (2025/26) hadi lengo la angalau asilimia 30 ifikapo 2029/30
- Ukuaji wa GDP: lengo la angalau asilimia 7.2 (jedwali la kina) dhidi ya asilimia 6.0 (muhtasari wa mwisho) — tofauti inayohitaji ufafanuzi
- Mfumuko wa bei: lengo la kubaki ndani ya wigo wa asilimia 3-5
- Akiba ya fedha za kigeni: lengo la miezi angalau 4.0 ya uagizaji bidhaa
Vyanzo: Mpango Mkakati wa Benki Kuu ya Tanzania 2026/27-2030/31 (Juni 2026), na utafiti wa awali wa TICGL/TERI kuhusu FYDP IV na Dira 2050. Uchambuzi umeandaliwa na Idara ya Utafiti ya TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI).