INFLATION RATE:

The inflation rates in Tanzania from November 2022 to November 2023 exhibited an overall increase from 109.16 to 112.67, with a 0.4% rise in the one-month period. Detailed analysis across categories revealed varied impacts on prices. Sectors like Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, Housing, and Restaurants and Accommodation Services experienced noticeable increases in both one-month and 12-month changes. However, some areas, including Health, Information and Communication, and Education Services, remained relatively stable. The diverse inflation rates across sectors emphasize the influence of distinct economic factors on price fluctuations. Rising inflation was highlighted for its potential impact on living costs, consumer purchasing power, and overall economic stability. The data serves as a crucial tool for policymakers, businesses, and individuals to assess and adjust monetary and fiscal policies to maintain price stability.

 CURRENT ACCOUNT:

Tanzania is grappling with a growing current account deficit, prompting a need for thorough examination by policymakers and economists to develop strategies addressing trade imbalances and fostering economic stability. The trade dynamics reveal an expanding trade deficit in goods, notably affecting the Goods and Services balance. The Services Account contributes to the overall decline, while the Primary Income Account remains stable, and the Secondary Income Account sees a slight increase in transfers. The Current Account Balance has worsened significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Detailed analysis of components such as the Goods Account, Services Account, Primary Income Account, Secondary Income Account, and the overall Current Account Balance over different time periods further illustrates the challenges, including a notable increase in the trade deficit, decline in services trade balance, and an overall larger current account deficit.

 MONEY SUPPLY:

In October 2023, Tanzania experienced a noteworthy improvement in its international financial position, marked by a substantial increase in net foreign assets and a 373% surge compared to the previous year. The Bank of Tanzania also strengthened its foreign assets with a remarkable 767% increase over the year. However, domestically, there was a significant decline in net domestic assets, reflecting reduced domestic financial assets. Various components, including domestic claims, securities held by banks, and claims on the private sector, contributed to this decline. The overall money supply (M3, M2, M1) contracted by 15% to 20%, indicating a reduction in the circulating money in the economy. Notably, foreign currency deposits, other deposits, and various financial claims experienced reductions, suggesting a broader trend of decreased financial activity or changing investment patterns. While the narrowest measure of money supply (M1) contracted in the short term, there was a 13% increase compared to the previous year, presenting a complex financial landscape. The reduction in currency in circulation by 39% over the year may be influenced by shifts in payment methods or changes in consumer behavior, while transferable deposits exhibited volatility with a 25% decrease over the month but a 34% increase over the year.

 EXPORT AND IMPORT RATE:

In the period from 2021 to 2023, Tanzania has witnessed positive growth in both exports and imports, reflecting efforts to reduce the trade deficit. The export of goods and services has consistently increased, with a notable 15% growth from 2022 to 2023 and a substantial 41% growth over the two-year span. Import values also rose, albeit at a slightly slower pace, with a modest 1% increase from 2022 to 2023 and a more substantial 50% increase over the two-year period. Despite concerns about potential trade imbalances and pressure on foreign exchange reserves due to higher import growth, Tanzania has managed to narrow its trade deficit by 39% from 2022 to 2023, and a significant 128% reduction is observed over the two-year period from 2021 to 2023. While a trade deficit still exists, these trends suggest an overall improvement in Tanzania's trade balance, attributed to the faster growth rate of exports compared to imports.

 BUDGET ANALYSIS:

In October 2023, the government's budget performance evaluation revealed a mixed picture. Development expenditure exceeded expectations by 74%, signaling increased investment in development projects. However, other recurrent expenditure saw a significant 61% decrease, possibly indicating intentional cost-cutting or underspending. Import taxes outperformed, with taxes on imports and local goods and services exceeding budget estimates by 14% and 2%, respectively. In contrast, income tax and other tax revenues fell short by 19% and 5%. The overall budget deficit widened by 84%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability despite the potential economic growth from the focus on development projects. The analysis suggests a need for scrutiny in resource allocation, consideration of alternative revenue sources, and addressing shortfalls in income and business-related taxes.

NATIONAL DEBTS:

The research on Tanzania's national debts in October 2023 reveals a 7% expansion in the total national debt, increasing from TZS 90,957,363.00 to TZS 96,688,407.00 over the past year. This growth is attributed to a 5% increase in external debt, reaching TZS 67,238,907.00, and a more substantial 12% rise in domestic debt, reaching TZS 29,449,500.00. The 1-month changes indicate a 1% increase in total debts from September to October 2023, with external debt remaining relatively stable (0% change) and domestic debt experiencing a 2% increase. These figures raise concerns about the country's fiscal sustainability, suggesting a trend of growing indebtedness, possibly driven by factors such as infrastructure development, economic stimulus, or budgetary needs. Monitoring these trends is crucial for informed decision-making by policymakers and analysts.