Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; it is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. All figures come from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 and the agencies it cites (NBS, Ministry of Finance, Tanzania Revenue Authority, World Bank, Zanzibar Office of the Chief Government Statistician). Where two tables in the review differ, both are shown with their source.
00 — Overview & VerdictExecutive Summary: A Stable Headline With Pressure Building Underneath
Tanzania's headline numbers are calm; the composition is not. Inflation held at 4.3%, inside the 3–5% target, but the driver changed: food inflation fell from 7.0% to 3.9% while transport inflation rose from 2.1% to 14.0% and services inflation from 1.3% to 6.1%. Core inflation is 4.1%, up from 2.2% a year ago.
Policy tightened a little; credit did not slow. The Central Bank Rate rose 50 basis points to 6.25%, yet private sector credit grew 34.2% to TZS 56.4 trillion and extended broad money (M3) 25.9%. Private credit explains about 96% of the TZS 15.0 trillion rise in M3 over the year, while net foreign assets fell 17.3%.
Oil, not weak exports, widened the external gap. The 12-month current account deficit grew 27.6% to USD 2.40 billion. Petroleum imports rose USD 1.60 billion (+72.3%), more than the USD 1.29 billion extra earned from gold. Exports of goods and services still grew 19.9% and September alone showed a USD 421 million monthly surplus.
Fiscal strength is real; debt-service strain is rising. July revenue beat target by 9.5%, but interest costs ran 33.7% above estimate and development spending ran 7.4% below estimate. External debt arrears doubled in a year to USD 1.20 billion.
Where Growth Is Running: Key Year-on-Year Rates
Annual Inflation by Main Group: One Year Ago vs Now
Growth, Inflation and Credit, 2018–2025
The review in eight lines
| Area | Evidence (September 2026 unless stated) | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Prices | Headline 4.3%; core 4.1%; food 3.9%; energy, fuel and utilities 7.8%; transport 14.0%; services 6.1% | Anchored, but re-composed |
| Monetary policy | CBR 6.25% (from 5.75%); interbank rate 6.67%; reverse repo take-up TZS 2,624.5B (from 3,037.4B) | Gently tighter |
| Money & credit | M3 +25.9%; private credit +34.2%; transport & communication credit +78.3%; lending rate 15.54% | Boom, broad-based |
| Markets | T-bill yield 4.85%; 10-year bond 10.69%; shilling TZS 2,654.91/USD; foreign access to Government securities opened on 17 July 2026 | Orderly, liquid |
| Fiscal (July) | Revenue TZS 3,502.2B (+9.5% vs target); spending TZS 3,572.5B; interest TZS 564.9B vs 422.5B estimate | Strong revenue, rising interest bill |
| Debt | National debt USD 52,344.2M; external USD 36,784.2M; arrears USD 1,197.4M (USD 584.1M a year ago) | Arrears flag |
| External | Deficit USD 2,397.5M (+27.6%); petroleum imports +72.3%; gold exports ≈USD 5.8B; reserves 4.3 months | Oil-driven widening |
| Zanzibar | Inflation 4.3% (5.6% in Aug); current account surplus USD 986.8M (+18.7%); cloves USD 38.0M vs 6.2M | Resilient, clove-aided |
Table 0.1. Source: BoT MER October 2026. Readings are TICGL/TERI judgements.
Key findings
- Stable headline, new drivers. Annual food inflation fell 3.1 points while transport inflation rose almost 12 points; on base-year weights transport now contributes about 2.0 points to the 4.3% headline, up from 0.3 a year ago.
- Core inflation has doubled. From 2.2% to 4.1% in a year, and services inflation from 1.3% to 6.1%; the BoT says core is now the primary driver of headline (3.1 of 4.3 points).
- Credit is the engine of money growth. Private credit added TZS 14.4 trillion to M3 over the year; net foreign assets subtracted TZS 2.7 trillion.
- Credit is broad-based but fast. Eight sector series grew 17.7–78.3%; transport and communication, trade and agriculture lead; personal loans remain the largest share at 33.9%.
- Oil is the swing factor abroad. Crude averaged USD 102.3/barrel in September (+21.2% m/m); Tanzania's petroleum import bill is up USD 1.6 billion a year.
- Fiscal outturn is strong but lopsided. Import taxes and local VAT/excise beat estimates; income tax and grants missed; interest and other recurrent spending overshot while development spending undershot.
- Arrears are the quiet risk. Principal arrears more than doubled to USD 867.5 million, with commercial creditors up from USD 184.5 million to USD 549.6 million.
- Zanzibar is steadier but its goods exports are now 58% cloves, a cyclical crop.
Tanzania enters the last quarter of 2026 with anchored headline prices, a liquid financial system, a strong revenue start to the fiscal year and a growing export base. The pressures are second-round inflation from fuel, a credit expansion that is several times faster than nominal GDP, a larger oil bill against reserve cover of 4.3 months, and creditor arrears that have doubled. The task for the next six months is containment: keep core inflation from drifting above 5%, keep credit quality visible, and clear arrears before they become a market-access cost.
01 — Global & CommoditiesA Resilient World Economy, a Middle East Energy Shock
The BoT review opens with a global economy that is "resilient but uneven". The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook lifted 2026 global growth to 3.1% from 3.0%, helped by resilient demand, private-sector adaptation and AI investment that is expected to offset the Middle East energy shock. Sub-Saharan Africa was revised up to 4.5% from 4.3% on better terms of trade for oil exporters, but oil importers such as Tanzania face elevated energy costs.
| Forecast (2026 growth) | Latest | Previous | Source and note |
|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3.1% | 3.0% | IMF WEO October vs July 2026 |
| Advanced economies | 2.1% | n/a | Bolstered by US performance |
| Emerging market and developing economies | 3.7% | n/a | India offsets weaker China |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.5% | 4.3% | Oil exporters gain; oil importers face headwinds |
| OECD world | 2.9% | 2.8% | OECD September vs June 2026 |
Table 1.0. Source: BoT MER October 2026, Chapter 1.
2026 Growth Forecasts: Latest vs Previous
Crude Oil: Average, Brent and Dubai, Aug-25 to Sep-26
September 2026 commodity moves
| Commodity | Unit | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Change | Why it matters to Tanzania |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil, average | USD/barrel | 84.4 | 102.3 | +21.2% | Pump prices, transport costs, import bill |
| Natural gas, Europe | USD/mmbtu | 21.11 | 25.42 | +20.4% | LNG market tightness; fertilizer inputs |
| Gold | USD/troy oz | 4,411 | 4,319 | −2.1% | Largest export; BoT gold purchase programme |
| Wheat, US HRW | USD/tonne | 330 | 347.0 | +5.2% | Bread, flour and milling costs |
| Sugar, world | USD/kg | 0.38 | 0.41 | +7.9% | Food inflation; industrial sugar imports |
| Palm oil | USD/tonne | 1,117 | 1,180 | +5.6% | Edible oil import prices |
| Coffee, Arabica | USD/kg | 7.97 | 7.26 | −8.9% | Export earnings from coffee |
| Coffee, Robusta | USD/kg | 3.98 | 3.69 | −7.3% | Export earnings from coffee |
| DAP fertilizer | USD/tonne | 793.5 | 800.6 | +0.9% | Input costs for the 2026/27 season |
| Urea fertilizer | USD/tonne | 390.0 | 407.5 | +4.5% | Input costs for the 2026/27 season |
Table 1.1. Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) via BoT MER Table 1.1 and Table A8. "Change" is September over August.
Monthly Change in Selected Commodity Prices
Gold Price, Aug-25 to Sep-26
Fertilizer Prices: Urea and DAP
Coffee Prices: Arabica and Robusta
Global inflation and what it means for Tanzania
Global inflation stayed elevated in September on energy costs. Advanced-economy inflation, especially in the United States and the euro area, rose and central banks signalled tighter policy if price pressures persist. Among emerging markets, inflation edged up in India (weather and oil) and China (energy, partly offset by lower food prices). Within the EAC and SADC, inflation was divergent but mostly inside regional convergence criteria (the EAC ceiling is 8%).
| Channel | Direction | Evidence in the review |
|---|---|---|
| Import costs and inflation | Negative | Elevated energy and fertilizer prices raise import costs and domestic price pressure; BoT flags a possible tighter stance. |
| Export earnings | Positive | Firmer agricultural prices and stronger regional demand are expected to support export earnings. |
| Gold terms of trade | Mixed | Gold eased 2.1% in September but remains far above 2025 levels (USD 3,368 in Aug-25). |
| Downside risks | Elevated | Prolonged Middle East conflict, trade-route disruption, El Niño effects on farm output and food supply. |
The global backdrop is better than feared on growth but worse on prices. For Tanzania the energy shock is the transmission line: it shows up first in transport inflation, next in the import bill and current account, and then in monetary policy.
02 — InflationOn Target, but the Engine Has Changed From Food to Transport and Services
Headline inflation was 4.3% in September 2026, unchanged from August and inside the 3–5% national target; it was 3.4% a year ago. The BoT attributes the stability to moderation in energy, fuel and utilities inflation, which partly offset a slight rise in food inflation. Inflation is projected to stay elevated in the coming months on Middle East tensions and El Niño-related Vuli rains, but within the target and regional benchmarks, helped by surplus food production from the 2025/26 harvest.
| Main group | Weight | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Change y/y (pts) | m/m Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 28.2 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | −3.1 | −0.5 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 1.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | −2.5 | 0.2 |
| Clothing and footwear | 10.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | −0.2 | 0.1 |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels | 15.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.2 | 0.3 |
| Furnishings and household maintenance | 7.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | −0.2 | 0.5 |
| Health | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | +0.2 | 0.0 |
| Transport | 14.1 | 2.1 | 13.8 | 14.0 | +11.9 | 1.1 |
| Information and communication | 5.4 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | +1.3 | 0.0 |
| Recreation, sports and culture | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Education services | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.3 | 0.0 |
| Restaurants and accommodation | 6.6 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | +1.9 | 0.0 |
| Insurance and financial services | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | −0.2 | 0.0 |
| Personal care and miscellaneous | 2.1 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | +1.0 | 0.0 |
| All items (headline) | 100.0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | +0.9 | 0.1 |
| Core | 73.9 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 0.4 |
| Non-core | 26.1 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | −1.8 | −0.5 |
| Energy, fuel and utilities | 5.7 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 | +4.1 | 0.2 |
| Services | 37.2 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | +4.8 | 0.6 |
| Goods | 62.8 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | −1.3 | −0.2 |
Table 2.1. Annual inflation, percent, base 2020 = 100. Source: BoT MER Table 2.1.1 (NBS); "change y/y" is TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Twelve-Month Inflation: Headline, Core, Food, Energy and Transport
Contribution to Headline Inflation: BoT Decomposition
Annual Inflation by Group, September 2026
Approximate Contribution by Group: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Month-on-Month Inflation, 2026
Services vs Goods Inflation
Food: easing prices, falling reserves
Food inflation rose slightly to 3.9% from 3.7%, driven by sorghum, potatoes, finger millet and wheat, but it remains far below the 7.0% of a year ago. Wholesale staples such as rice, beans and maize were at or below year-earlier levels in the review's charts. The National Food Reserve Agency held 478,160.2 tonnes at end-September after buying 705.7 tonnes and releasing 6,877.1 tonnes of maize and paddy; stocks are the lowest for September since 2023 and 16% below September 2025.
NFRA Food Stocks, 2025 vs 2026 (End of Month)
NFRA Stocks Each September, 2022–2026
Energy and utilities
Energy, fuel and utilities inflation eased to 7.8% from 8.5% on lower petrol, diesel and kerosene price movements during the month, but it is more than double the 3.7% of September 2025. With crude at USD 102.3 in September (USD 84.4 in August), the easing is fragile. The BoT notes that core inflation, not energy, now accounts for most of the headline: 3.1 of 4.3 points, against 1.6 of 3.4 a year ago.
Headline inflation calculator
Weights from the CPI basket (food 28.2, transport 14.1, housing and utilities 15.1, all other 42.6). Defaults reproduce September 2026. "All other groups" default of 2.0% is the rate implied by the other ten groups. A weighted approximation, not an official CPI.
The 4.3% headline hides a swap: cheaper food is financing dearer transport. If food inflation reverts toward 6.5% (El Niño, wheat and sugar prices), the headline would move to about 5.0% with transport unchanged. Use the calculator: food 6.5, transport 14.0 gives 5.0%, the ceiling of the target band.
03 — Money, Credit & Interest RatesPolicy Rate Up 50 Basis Points; Credit Still Growing at Three Times Nominal GDP
The Monetary Policy Committee's July 2026 decision raised the Central Bank Rate (CBR) to 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, from 5.75% in the quarter to June, to contain second-round inflation from elevated energy, fertilizer and transport costs. Operations kept the 7-day interbank rate inside a corridor of 4.75–7.75%. Liquidity was adequate; reverse-repo demand fell as banks held more liquidity (transactions TZS 2,624.5 billion vs TZS 3,037.4 billion in August).
| Policy instrument | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Rate / Repo rate | 5.75 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 |
| Reverse repo rate | 5.75 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 |
| Lombard rate (top of corridor) | 7.25 | 7.75 | 7.75 | 7.75 |
| Discount rate | 8.25 | 8.75 | 8.75 | 8.75 |
| Overall interbank cash market rate | 6.00 | 6.57 | 6.67 | 6.67 |
| Overall Treasury bill rate | 4.83 | 4.74 | 4.86 | 4.85 |
| Overall lending rate | 15.22 | 15.10 | 15.05 | 15.54 |
| Overall time deposit rate | 8.69 | 8.78 | 8.78 | 9.02 |
Table 3.1. Percent. Source: BoT MER Table A4 and Table 2.3.1.
Policy Rate, Lombard Rate and the Interbank Rate
Lending, Deposit and Spread: Jan–Sep 2026
Money supply: strong, credit-led
| Item | Sep-25 (TZS B) | Aug-26 (TZS B) | Sep-26 (TZS B) | Growth y/y | Change y/y (TZS B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net foreign assets | 15,896.7 | 13,575.4 | 13,152.3 | −17.3% | −2,744.4 |
| Bank of Tanzania | 14,467.3 | 13,730.9 | 14,139.1 | −2.3% | −328.2 |
| Banks | 1,429.3 | −155.5 | −986.7 | turned negative | −2,416.0 |
| Net domestic assets | 41,957.4 | 58,553.3 | 59,675.6 | +42.2% | +17,718.2 |
| Domestic claims | 54,854.2 | 68,093.2 | 69,436.3 | +26.6% | +14,582.1 |
| Securities held by banks | 8,723.1 | 11,718.3 | 12,056.9 | +38.2% | +3,333.8 |
| Claims on the private sector | 41,999.9 | 55,255.9 | 56,359.4 | +34.2% | +14,359.5 |
| Other items (net) | −12,896.9 | −9,539.8 | −9,760.7 | −24.3% | +3,136.2 |
| Narrow money (M1) | 27,916.4 | 35,592.8 | 36,121.8 | +29.4% | +8,205.4 |
| Broad money (M2) | 44,516.8 | 56,085.2 | 57,334.6 | +28.8% | +12,817.8 |
| Foreign currency deposits | 13,337.2 | 16,043.5 | 15,493.3 | +16.2% | +2,156.1 |
| Currency in circulation | 7,730.8 | 9,119.9 | 9,394.0 | +21.5% | +1,663.2 |
| Reserve money (M0) | 13,717.6 | 17,245.9 | 17,127.7 | +24.9% | +3,410.1 |
| Extended broad money (M3) | 57,854.0 | 72,128.7 | 72,827.9 | +25.9% | +14,973.9 |
Table 3.2. Source: BoT MER Table 2.2.1 and Table A3; "change y/y" is TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Banks' net foreign assets turned negative (net foreign liabilities).
M3 and Credit to the Private Sector, Sep-25 to Sep-26
What Moved M3 Over the Year: Counterparts
Credit by sector
| Sector (annual growth, %) | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport and communication | 39.7 | 44.6 | 59.5 | 66.0 | 77.2 | 78.3 |
| Trade | 44.2 | 35.0 | 46.4 | 43.5 | 47.1 | 52.5 |
| Agriculture | 30.5 | 30.9 | 30.1 | 37.3 | 38.4 | 41.9 |
| Mining and quarrying | 39.7 | 19.8 | 39.9 | 65.2 | 75.9 | 35.2 |
| Building and construction | 20.6 | 25.4 | 34.4 | 38.9 | 41.8 | 34.3 |
| Hotels and restaurants | 6.0 | −2.9 | 0.9 | 25.1 | 24.6 | 32.7 |
| Personal | 17.7 | 20.0 | 21.8 | 24.7 | 24.9 | 23.1 |
| Manufacturing | 4.2 | 3.3 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 12.9 | 17.7 |
Table 3.3. Source: BoT MER Table 2.2.2.
Credit Growth by Sector: April vs September 2026
Share of Bank Credit by Activity, September 2026
Financial Depth: Private Credit to GDP and Credit Growth, 2018–2025
Credit growth of 34.2% compares with nominal GDP growth of 10.4% in 2025 and M3 growth of 25.9% against 4.3% inflation. Lending is deepening (credit to GDP 19.1% in 2025), which is positive, but it is concentrated in fast-growing transport and communication, trade and agriculture books, banks' net foreign position has turned negative, and the review publishes no non-performing-loan data. Credit quality, not credit volume, is the next number to watch.
04 — Financial MarketsLiquid Markets, Falling Short Yields and a Newly Open Door for Foreign Investors
Government securities markets stayed vibrant in September 2026. The Bank ran two Treasury bill auctions (tender TZS 678.3 billion) that drew bids of TZS 1,205 billion, of which TZS 654.6 billion were accepted, so the overall weighted yield stayed at 4.85%. Three Treasury bond auctions (5, 10 and 15-year; tender TZS 535.8 billion in total) attracted TZS 1,267.2 billion of bids and accepted TZS 489.7 billion.
September 2026 Auctions: Tender, Bids and Accepted
Treasury Bond Yield Curve: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Treasury Bill Yields by Tenor: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Bond Yields Over Time: 5, 10, 15 and 20-Year
| Yield (%) | Sep-25 | Dec-25 | Mar-26 | Jun-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Change y/y (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35-day bill | 6.20 | 5.38 | 4.20 | 2.82 | 2.11 | 2.41 | −3.79 |
| 91-day bill | 6.81 | 5.93 | 4.23 | 3.56 | 3.42 | 3.40 | −3.41 |
| 182-day bill | 6.56 | 5.91 | 5.69 | 4.98 | 5.12 | 5.11 | −1.45 |
| 364-day bill | 5.99 | 6.24 | 5.80 | 6.65 | 6.70 | 6.38 | +0.39 |
| Overall T-bill rate | 6.03 | 5.87 | 5.21 | 4.83 | 4.86 | 4.85 | −1.18 |
| 2-year bond | 12.17 | 10.05 | 8.36 | 8.36 | 8.40 | 8.40 | −3.77 |
| 5-year bond | 12.48 | 10.54 | 10.54 | 9.54 | 9.54 | 9.53 | −2.95 |
| 10-year bond | 13.74 | 12.45 | 11.30 | 10.39 | 10.87 | 10.69 | −3.05 |
| 15-year bond | 13.91 | 12.08 | 10.78 | 10.39 | 10.55 | 10.79 | −3.12 |
| 25-year bond | 13.19 | 13.19 | 11.99 | 11.89 | 11.48 | 11.48 | −1.71 |
| Overall interbank rate | 6.45 | 6.29 | 6.32 | 6.00 | 6.67 | 6.67 | +0.22 |
Table 4.1. Percent. Source: BoT MER Table A4; "change y/y" is TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
Interbank Cash Market Rates by Tenor, September 2026
Overnight and Overall Interbank Rate vs the CBR
Foreign exchange
The interbank foreign exchange market was stable, helped by commodity-export and tourism inflows. Turnover reached USD 151.7 million and the Bank sold only USD 7.2 million to smooth volatility. The shilling averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD (TZS 2,657.01 in August), an annual depreciation of 7.4% that the BoT attributes largely to a base effect from a sharp appreciation in September 2025.
Exchange Rate, 2018–2025 and September 2026
Foreign Exchange Market in September 2026
On 17 July 2026, the Foreign Exchange (Amendment) Regulations, 2026 (Government Notice No. 206 of 2026) replaced Regulation 20 of the 2022 Regulations, removing geographical restrictions and the minimum holding period on Government securities. The reform follows competitive bond auctions (January 2025), an Electronic Matching System for the interbank FX market (May 2026) and the Tanzania Sovereign Yield Curve (August 2026).
The BoT expects more competition at auctions, lower borrowing costs, longer-dated issuance, deeper secondary liquidity, better price discovery, higher reserves and a shift of exchange-rate risk to investors. The risks it names are abrupt outflows, reserve losses and higher yields; benefits depend on low inflation, fiscal discipline, adequate reserves and transparent markets.
| Stage of capital-account opening | Who gained access to Government securities | Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | EAC residents | Ceiling of 40% of each issue; 12-month restriction on transfer to Tanzanian residents |
| 2022 Regulations | SADC residents and the diaspora added | Holding period shortened to six months |
| 17 July 2026 (GN 206) | Rest of the world | No geographical restriction; no minimum holding period |
Table 4.2. Source: BoT MER, "Tanzania Opens Further to Global Capital".
Yields at 10–15 years are about 3 points lower than a year ago and the market is oversubscribed, so the opening comes at a favourable moment. The bill curve has flipped from inverted to upward sloping, and the 10-year yield is still 4.4 points above the CBR. The test of the reform is whether foreign money arrives into this curve without a sudden reversal when oil, or US yields, move.
05 — Fiscal OperationsA Strong Revenue Start to 2026/27, With Interest and Recurrent Costs Running Hot
Mainland government collections reached TZS 3,502.2 billion in July 2026, 9.5% above the TZS 3,198.4 billion estimate. Central government revenue was TZS 3,354.9 billion (95.8% of the total). Spending was TZS 3,572.5 billion: TZS 2,779.6 billion recurrent and TZS 792.9 billion development. The 2026/27 budget envisages TZS 46.2 trillion of revenue and TZS 54.5 trillion of spending, leaving a deficit of TZS 7.7 trillion after grants.
| July 2026 (TZS billion) | Estimate | Actual | Gap | Gap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue (incl. LGAs) | 3,198.4 | 3,502.2 | +303.8 | +9.5% |
| Central government revenue | 3,054.7 | 3,354.9 | +300.2 | +9.8% |
| Tax revenue | 2,574.5 | 2,877.0 | +302.5 | +11.8% |
| Taxes on imports | 1,020.5 | 1,163.4 | +142.9 | +14.0% |
| Taxes on local goods and services | 453.7 | 638.2 | +184.6 | +40.7% |
| Income taxes | 910.6 | 862.6 | −48.0 | −5.3% |
| Other taxes | 189.8 | 212.8 | +23.0 | +12.1% |
| Non-tax revenue | 480.2 | 477.9 | −2.3 | −0.5% |
| LGA own sources | 143.7 | 147.3 | +3.6 | +2.5% |
| Total expenditure | 3,376.9 | 3,572.5 | +195.6 | +5.8% |
| Recurrent expenditure | 2,521.0 | 2,779.6 | +258.6 | +10.3% |
| Wages and salaries | 1,254.9 | 1,164.4 | −90.5 | −7.2% |
| Interest payments | 422.5 | 564.9 | +142.4 | +33.7% |
| Domestic interest | 192.2 | 383.8 | +191.6 | +99.7% |
| Foreign interest | 230.3 | 181.1 | −49.2 | −21.4% |
| Other goods, services and transfers | 843.6 | 1,050.2 | +206.7 | +24.5% |
| Development and net lending | 855.9 | 792.9 | −63.0 | −7.4% |
| Local | 519.3 | 521.0 | +1.7 | +0.3% |
| Foreign | 336.7 | 271.9 | −64.7 | −19.2% |
| Balance before grants | −178.6 | −70.3 | +108.3 | — |
| Grants (project) | 103.5 | 75.7 | −27.8 | −26.8% |
| Balance after grants (cheques issued) | −75.1 | +5.4 | +80.5 | — |
| Overall balance (after cash adjustments of TZS 476.2B) | −75.1 | +486.2 | +561.3 | — |
Table 5.1. TZS billion, Tanzania Mainland, cheques issued basis. Source: BoT MER Table A2; gap columns are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. The review text cites 9.8% for "tax collections", which matches central-government revenue (see Data Notes).
July 2026 Revenue by Source: Estimate vs Actual
July 2026 Spending: Estimate vs Actual
How July Was Financed
Composition of July Spending: Estimate vs Actual
The 2026/27 budget in one table
| Budget 2026/27 (TZS trillion) | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Taxes on imports | 13.47 | 29.1% |
| Income taxes | 14.48 | 31.3% |
| Taxes on local goods and services | 6.83 | 14.8% |
| Other taxes | 2.47 | 5.3% |
| Non-tax revenue | 7.02 | 15.2% |
| LGA own sources | 1.97 | 4.3% |
| Total revenue | 46.23 | 100% |
| Budget 2026/27 (TZS trillion) | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Wages and salaries | 14.09 | 25.9% |
| Interest payments | 6.86 | 12.6% |
| Other goods, services, transfers | 14.25 | 26.1% |
| Development and net lending | 19.30 | 35.4% |
| Total expenditure | 54.50 | 100% |
Table 5.2. Source: BoT MER Table A2; shares are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Financing: foreign net TZS 4.43 trillion, domestic net TZS 3.27 trillion (deficit after grants TZS 7.71 trillion). Grants TZS 0.56 trillion.
2026/27 Budget Revenue by Source
2026/27 Budget Spending and Financing
Medium-term fiscal trend
Revenue, Current and Development Spending, % of GDP
Budget Deficit, % of GDP
Revenue is the good news: tax performance is up on the estimate and the revenue-to-GDP ratio has risen 3.4 points in seven years. The costs to watch are interest (domestic interest was almost double its estimate in July) and recurrent spending outside wages. July's overall surplus is not a trend: it reflects TZS 1.09 trillion of foreign financing, mostly program loans, and a TZS 476.2 billion cash adjustment.
06 — Debt & ArrearsNational Debt USD 52.3 Billion: Stable Stock, Doubling Arrears
The national debt stock was USD 52,344.2 million at end-September 2026 (USD 52,341.1 million in August). External debt was USD 36,784.2 million (70.3%), of which 83.4% is public. Domestic debt was TZS 41.1 trillion. In September, external disbursements were USD 234.3 million and debt service USD 171.9 million (principal USD 122.0 million, interest USD 49.9 million).
External debt
| Creditor (USD million) | Sep-25 | Share | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Share | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multilateral | 20,230.1 | 58.6% | 21,899.2 | 21,892.2 | 59.5% | +8.2% |
| Commercial | 12,042.8 | 34.9% | 12,721.4 | 12,677.7 | 34.5% | +5.3% |
| Bilateral | 1,559.3 | 4.5% | 1,561.1 | 1,547.4 | 4.2% | −0.8% |
| Export credit | 677.8 | 2.0% | 666.4 | 666.9 | 1.8% | −1.6% |
| External debt stock | 34,510.1 | 100% | 36,848.2 | 36,784.2 | 100% | +6.6% |
Table 6.1. Includes interest arrears. Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.2; "change y/y" is TICGL/TERI arithmetic.
External Debt by Creditor: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Disbursed External Debt: Monthly Stock
Currency Composition of External Debt
Where External Debt Went: Use of Funds, Sep-26
External Debt: Disbursements vs Debt Service
Net Flows and Net Transfers on External Debt
External arrears: the quiet risk
| Arrears (USD million) | Sep-25 | Dec-25 | Mar-26 | Jun-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Principal arrears | 401.8 | 458.9 | 492.0 | 622.6 | 754.3 | 867.5 | +115.9% |
| Commercial | 184.5 | 211.8 | 240.4 | 317.9 | 441.1 | 549.6 | +197.9% |
| Bilateral | 175.0 | 184.0 | 188.0 | 197.3 | 198.8 | 198.8 | +13.6% |
| Export credit | 41.7 | 62.3 | 62.9 | 94.2 | 100.8 | 104.9 | +151.6% |
| Multilateral | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 14.2 | — |
| Interest arrears | 182.3 | 209.9 | 224.1 | 274.6 | 311.4 | 329.9 | +81.0% |
| Total arrears | 584.1 | 668.8 | 716.1 | 897.2 | 1,065.6 | 1,197.4 | +105.0% |
Table 6.2. Source: BoT MER Table A10 item 10; "change y/y" is TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Interest arrears here equal the sum of creditor interest arrears (USD 329.9M) and tie to Table 2.6.2 (80.6 + 24.7 + 182.6 + 42.0).
External Debt Arrears: Principal and Interest
Principal Arrears by Creditor
Arrears are 3.3% of the external debt stock, a small share, but they have grown 8–14% a month since May against a debt stock growing 6.6% a year, and the largest increase is on commercial debt. They sit alongside a debt-service bill that, per the budget, includes TZS 6.9 trillion of interest. A rising arrears number signals payment-processing or liquidity frictions that can raise the cost of future borrowing before it raises default risk.
Domestic debt
| TZS trillion | Sep-25 | Share | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Share | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury bonds | 30.30 | 80.9% | 34.79 | 34.80 | 84.6% | +14.8% |
| Treasury bills | 2.06 | 5.5% | 1.79 | 1.90 | 4.6% | −7.9% |
| Government stocks | 0.14 | 0.4% | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.3% | −0.1% |
| Overdraft (BoT) | 4.94 | 13.2% | 4.18 | 4.29 | 10.4% | −13.3% |
| Domestic debt (excl. liquidity papers) | 37.46 | 100% | 40.90 | 41.11 | 100% | +9.8% |
Table 6.3. Securities TZS 36.83 trillion (89.6%). Source: BoT MER Table 2.6.5; TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Components may not sum exactly to totals (rounding, other liabilities of TZS 0.02 trillion in Sep-25).
Domestic Debt by Holder: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Domestic Debt by Instrument: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
In September the Government raised TZS 356 billion from the domestic market (TZS 178 billion in Treasury bonds and TZS 178 billion in 364-day bills) and paid domestic debt service of TZS 556.4 billion: TZS 250.8 billion principal and TZS 305.6 billion interest.
A separate TICGL/TERI analysis, Tanzania National Debt Overview, expresses the whole stock in TZS trillion, combines domestic and external debt, and tests sustainability scenarios.
07 — External SectorExports +19.9%, Imports +24.0%: Oil Widens the Deficit, Gold and Tourism Cushion It
The current account deficit widened to USD 2,397.5 million in the year to September 2026 from USD 1,879.3 million (+27.6%) as imports outpaced exports. The September month itself showed a surplus of USD 421.2 million (a deficit of USD 252.5 million a year earlier), as goods exports reached USD 1,504.1 million and services receipts USD 1,017.5 million. Reserves were USD 6,031.9 million, 4.3 months of projected imports.
| Current account (USD million) | 12m to Sep-24 | 12m to Sep-25 | 12m to Sep-26p | Change y/y | Sep-25 month | Sep-26 month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goods account | −5,928.7 | −4,596.3 | −6,241.2 | +35.8% | −573.8 | −318.5 |
| Exports of goods | 8,226.5 | 10,060.1 | 12,444.9 | +23.7% | 1,013.1 | 1,504.1 |
| Imports of goods | 14,155.2 | 14,656.4 | 18,686.1 | +27.5% | 1,586.9 | 1,822.6 |
| Services account | 4,062.9 | 4,315.9 | 5,172.2 | +19.8% | 433.0 | 729.3 |
| Receipts | 6,667.1 | 7,508.3 | 8,620.2 | +14.8% | 703.5 | 1,017.5 |
| Payments | 2,604.2 | 3,192.4 | 3,448.1 | +8.0% | 270.6 | 288.2 |
| Goods and services balance | −1,865.8 | −280.4 | −1,069.0 | 3.8x | −140.8 | +410.8 |
| Exports of goods and services | 14,893.6 | 17,568.5 | 21,065.1 | +19.9% | 1,716.6 | 2,521.6 |
| Imports of goods and services | 16,759.4 | 17,848.9 | 22,134.2 | +24.0% | 1,857.4 | 2,110.8 |
| Primary income | −1,735.4 | −2,073.6 | −2,089.8 | +0.8% | −137.6 | −123.0 |
| Secondary income | 585.2 | 474.6 | 761.4 | +60.4% | 26.0 | 133.4 |
| Current account balance | −3,016.0 | −1,879.3 | −2,397.5 | +27.6% | −252.5 | +421.2 |
Table 7.1. Source: BoT MER Table 2.7.1. The review writes the Sep-25 monthly goods and services exports as USD 1,716.6M; the 12-month totals use the table values. Exports include adjustments for informal cross-border trade.
Exports and Imports of Goods and Services, 12 Months to September
What Widened the Deficit? Changes From the Year to Sep-25
Exports: gold and manufactures lead
Gold and Manufactured Goods Exports
Services Receipts by Category
Traditional exports were led by tobacco, while coffee and cashew nuts fell despite remaining key cash crops. Monthly goods exports reached USD 1,504.1 million in September 2026 (USD 1,013.1 million in September 2025), mainly on gold.
Imports: industrial supplies and petroleum
| Select imports (USD million, 12m to Sep) | 2025 | 2026p | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial supplies | 5,279.5 | 5,843.9 | +564.4 | +10.7% |
| White petroleum products | 2,213.1 | 3,813.6 | +1,600.5 | +72.3% |
| Freight | 1,318.6 | 1,706.6 | +388.0 | +29.4% |
| Industrial transport equipment | 1,240.8 | 1,615.8 | +375.0 | +30.2% |
| Machinery and mechanical appliances | 1,123.6 | 1,572.1 | +448.5 | +39.9% |
| Parts and accessories | 1,175.6 | 1,393.8 | +218.2 | +18.6% |
| Electrical machinery and equipment | 483.1 | 712.3 | +229.2 | +47.4% |
Table 7.2. Source: BoT MER Chart 2.7.4; "change" columns are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Petroleum is about 20% of goods imports.
Select Imports: 12 Months to Sep-25 vs Sep-26
Service Receipts vs Payments
Eight years of balance-of-payments history
Goods Exports, Goods Imports and the Current Account, 2018–2025
Gross Reserves and Import Cover, 2018–2025
Oil-shock calculator: what a different fuel bill does to the current account
Baseline: current account deficit USD 2,397.5M; white petroleum imports USD 3,813.6M; gold exports USD 5,834.5M; exports of goods and services USD 21,065.1M (12 months to Sep-26). Enter a price change and volume change for petroleum, and a change in gold export earnings. A first-round arithmetic illustration, not a forecast.
Every 10% rise in the petroleum import price adds about USD 381 million to the deficit, 16% of the baseline. A 10% change in gold earnings moves it USD 583 million the other way, so gold remains the swing factor. The BoT's 4.3 months of import cover is calculated on projected imports; on the 12-month import bill of USD 22.1 billion, USD 6.0 billion of reserves covers about 3.3 months (TICGL arithmetic), which is why the pace of the import bill matters.
08 — ZanzibarInflation Back to 4.3%, a Growing Current Account Surplus and a Clove-Driven Export Jump
Zanzibar's headline inflation moderated to 4.3% in September 2026 from 5.6% in August, on lower food prices (food is 41.9% of the Zanzibar basket), but it is above the 3.5% of September 2025. Food inflation was 6.9% (9.8% in August); non-food was 2.3%. The current account surplus widened 18.7% to USD 986.8 million.
| Zanzibar inflation (annual, %) | Weight | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | m/m Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 41.9 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 6.8 | −1.9 |
| Alcoholic beverages and tobacco | 0.2 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Clothing and footwear | 6.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels | 25.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | −0.3 |
| Furnishings and household maintenance | 4.8 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 0.5 |
| Health | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Transport | 9.1 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 0.0 |
| Information and communication | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Recreation, sport and culture | 1.1 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Education | 1.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Restaurants and accommodation | 1.4 | 1.6 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 |
| Insurance and financial services | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Personal care and miscellaneous | 1.7 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| All items (headline) | 100.0 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.3 | −1.0 |
| Food (selected group) | 40.5 | 4.1 | 9.8 | 6.9 | −2.0 |
| Non-food | 59.5 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | −0.1 |
Table 8.1. Base July 2022 = 100. Source: BoT MER Table 3.1.1 (Office of the Chief Government Statistician). The review text describes monthly headline inflation as "1 percent"; the table shows −1.0%, which is used here.
Zanzibar Inflation by Group: Sep-25, Aug-26, Sep-26
Headline, Food and Non-Food: Sep-25 to Sep-26
Zanzibar budget in September 2026
| September 2026 | TZS billion | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Resource envelope | 210.4 | 92.8% of the monthly target |
| Domestic revenue | 200.9 | 95.5% of the envelope; 92.9% of target |
| Tax revenue | 173.7 | 86.4% of domestic revenue; 91.6% of target; VAT, local excise and income tax were strong |
| Non-tax revenue | 27.3 | 2.4% above target |
| Grants | 9.5 | Balance of the envelope (TICGL arithmetic) |
| Total expenditure | 494.5 | Consistent with available resources |
| Development spending | 355.9 | 72% of spending; 77.8% domestically financed |
Table 8.2. Source: BoT MER section 3.2.
Zanzibar's external sector
| USD million | 12m to Sep-25 | 12m to Sep-26p | Change | Sep-26 month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goods account (net) | −532.2 | −768.5 | +44.4% | −49.5 |
| Exports of goods | 35.2 | 65.0 | +84.9% | 1.9 |
| Imports of goods (f.o.b) | 567.4 | 833.5 | +46.9% | 51.4 |
| Services account (net) | 1,470.1 | 1,733.6 | +17.9% | 169.7 |
| Receipts | 1,573.8 | 1,799.4 | +14.3% | 174.7 |
| Payments | 103.7 | 65.9 | −36.5% | 5.0 |
| Exports of goods and services | 1,609.0 | 1,864.4 | +15.9% | 176.6 |
| Imports of goods and services | 671.1 | 899.4 | +34.0% | 56.4 |
| Primary income (net) | 9.4 | 17.1 | +82.8% | 3.0 |
| Secondary income (net) | 1.1 | 4.6 | >100% | 1.1 |
| Current account balance | 831.4 | 986.8 | +18.7% | 69.4 |
Table 8.3. Source: BoT MER Table 3.3.1.
Zanzibar Current Account Components
Zanzibar Goods Exports, 12 Months to Sep-26
Zanzibar Goods Imports by Type
Clove Exports: Value, Volume and Price
Zanzibar's surplus rests on services (tourism-led receipts of USD 1.8 billion) and, this year, a cyclical clove harvest. Capital-goods imports have almost tripled, which is a positive investment signal but adds to the import bill. The inflation story mirrors the mainland's: food relief is real, but transport at 4.7% and restaurants at 6.2% are above the 4.3% headline.
09 — Outlook & PolicyWhat to Watch Between Now and the Next Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
The BoT expects inflation to remain elevated in the coming months, with Middle East tensions and El Niño-related Vuli rains as pressures, but to stay within the national target and regional benchmarks, helped by food-crop surpluses from the 2025/26 harvest. The review states that the global energy shock is the main external risk and that tighter policy is possible if price pressures persist. The Central Bank Rate was raised to 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026. This tab sets out TICGL/TERI's reading of what to track.
Headline inflation under alternative food and transport paths
Implied Headline Inflation: Food and Transport Scenarios
Watch-list: indicators, thresholds and why they matter
| Indicator | Latest | Level that would change the reading | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation | 4.3% | Above 5% (target ceiling) | Triggers a second tightening debate; food 6.5% with transport at 14% gets there |
| Core inflation | 4.1% | Rising for a fourth month | Core is 3.1 of the 4.3 points; services inflation is 6.1% |
| Crude oil (average) | USD 102.3 | Sustained above USD 100 | Each 10% on the petroleum bill is about USD 0.38B on the current account |
| Private credit growth | 34.2% | Above 30% with falling reserves | Credit is 96% of M3 growth; banks' net foreign assets are negative |
| Reserves / import cover | USD 6.0B / 4.3 months | Below 4 months | Down from 4.9 months at end-2025 as the import bill rises |
| External arrears | USD 1.20B | Beyond USD 1.5B | Increasing about USD 100M a month; commercial arrears lead |
| Interest share of spending | 15.8% (July) | Above the 12.6% budgeted | Domestic interest was double the July estimate |
| Gold prices | USD 4,319/oz | Below USD 4,000 | Gold is USD 5.8B, 47% of goods exports |
| Foreign portfolio inflows | Not yet reported | First reports after GN 206 | Open access could lower yields or raise outflow risk |
Table 9.1. Thresholds are TICGL/TERI judgements, not official targets. Latest values: BoT MER October 2026.
Policy implications
Monetary and financial policy
- Keep the CBR under review while core inflation is at 4.1% and credit grows at 34%.
- Publish non-performing-loan and sector-concentration data alongside the credit tables.
- Prepare liquidity tools for the first foreign-investor flows into Government securities.
Fiscal and debt management
- Clear commercial and export-credit arrears early; they have tripled and doubled respectively.
- Watch domestic interest: TZS 383.8 billion in July against TZS 192.2 billion planned.
- Keep program-loan inflows from masking recurrent overshoots.
External and energy
- Diversify fuel procurement and storage to dampen the transport-inflation channel.
- Protect gold-purchase accumulation as a reserves buffer.
- Support manufactured and service exports, which are growing faster than traditional crops.
Investors and businesses
- Price in higher transport costs and a 15.5% lending rate; a falling bill yield does not reach borrowers.
- Foreign investors can now buy Government securities with no holding period; model FX and exit risk.
- Importers should hedge fuel-linked costs; exporters benefit from stable FX.
Talk to TICGL/TERI
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What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →Invest in Tanzania →✉️ economist@ticgl.com10 — Sources & Data NotesMethod, Definitions and Reconciliation Notes
Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (data to September 2026), covering global developments, Tanzania Mainland inflation, monetary policy, financial markets, budget operations, debt and the external sector, Zanzibar, and the Statistical Tables (A1–A10). Calculations. Contributions, shares, gaps, ratios, changes over 12 months, scenario and calculator results are TICGL/TERI arithmetic on published figures. The page is a detailed companion to the review and does not replace it.
Definitions and reconciliation notes
| Item | Treatment on this page |
|---|---|
| CPI basket and base year | Mainland inflation uses the NBS CPI with base 2020 = 100 (weights: food 28.2%, transport 14.1%). Zanzibar uses base July 2022 = 100 (food 41.9%). The two are not comparable by weight. |
| Inflation contributions | The BoT decomposition (unprocessed food, energy, core) is quoted for Sep-25 and Sep-26. Group contributions (weight × annual rate) are TICGL/TERI approximations and differ slightly from the official published decomposition. |
| Tax revenue gap | The review text says taxes beat target by 9.8%; Table A2 gives tax revenue of TZS 2,877.0B against TZS 2,574.5B (+11.8%). The 9.8% matches central-government revenue (TZS 3,354.9B vs 3,054.7B). Table A2 figures are used. |
| Exports of goods and services, Sep-25 | The text gives USD 17,568.9M while Table 2.7.1 shows USD 17,568.5M; the table value is used. Growth is 19.9% either way. |
| Domestic debt growth | TZS 41.11 trillion vs TZS 37.46 trillion (excluding liquidity papers) is +9.8%. |
| National and external debt | External debt of USD 36,784.2M includes arrears of USD 329.9M interest; disbursed outstanding debt (USD 36,454.3M in Table A10) plus interest arrears equals the stock in Table 2.6.2. Principal arrears (USD 867.5M) are shown separately as arrears and are already part of disbursed debt. |
| Import cover | The BoT's 4.3 months uses projected imports of goods and services. The 3.3-month figure on this page uses trailing 12-month imports as a TICGL/TERI cross-check. |
| Interest rates | Overall deposit rate is 9.02% in the text and 9.03% in Table A4 (rounding). |
| Zanzibar m/m inflation | The text says monthly headline inflation was "1 percent"; Table 3.1.1 shows −1.0%. The table value is used. Zanzibar food weight is 41.9% in the main groups and 40.5% in the "food" selected group. |
| Exchange rate | A 7.4% annual depreciation of the shilling (average TZS 2,654.91 per USD) is largely a base effect from September 2025, as stated by the BoT. |
| Provisional data | 2025 annual figures, 2026 fiscal and external data and September 2026 debt are provisional (p) and may be revised. Figures marked "r" are revised. |
| Not published in the review | Non-performing loans, GDP growth for 2026, and the 2026 Q3 national accounts are not in this issue, so are not estimated here. |
| Rounding | Totals may differ from component sums by rounding. |
- Bank of Tanzania (October 2026), Monthly Economic Review, including Tables A1–A10.
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Consumer Price Index releases, base 2020 = 100; Office of the Chief Government Statistician, Zanzibar.
- Ministry of Finance (Tanzania) and Ministry of Finance and Planning (Zanzibar), government operations and debt data.
- World Bank, Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet); IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026; OECD Economic Outlook, September 2026.
- TICGL/TERI calculations on the above.
11 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What was Tanzania's inflation rate in September 2026?
4.3%, unchanged from August and inside the 3–5% target, up from 3.4% a year earlier (Bank of Tanzania). Core inflation was 4.1%, food 3.9%, transport 14.0% and energy, fuel and utilities 7.8%.
Why did inflation stay within target even though fuel prices rose?
Food inflation fell from 7.0% to 3.9% over the year, offsetting transport inflation of 14.0%. On CPI weights, food contributes about 1.1 points to the 4.3% headline (about 2.0 points a year ago) and transport about 2.0 (about 0.3). Food-crop surpluses and moderating energy inflation (7.8% from 8.5%) helped, but core inflation of 4.1% is now the main driver.
What is Tanzania's Central Bank Rate in 2026?
6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, raised from 5.75% by the Monetary Policy Committee in July 2026 to contain second-round inflation from higher energy, fertilizer and transport costs. The interbank rate is managed inside a 4.75–7.75% corridor.
How fast is private sector credit growing in Tanzania?
34.2% a year to September 2026, to TZS 56.4 trillion. It added TZS 14.4 trillion to money supply (M3, +25.9%) over 12 months. Transport and communication credit grew 78.3%, trade 52.5% and agriculture 41.9%; personal loans remain the largest share at 33.9%.
What happened to Tanzania's current account deficit?
It widened 27.6% to USD 2,397.5 million in the 12 months to September 2026. Imports of goods and services grew 24.0% (petroleum imports +72.3% to USD 3.8 billion) against exports growth of 19.9%, led by gold (USD 5.8 billion). In September alone the account recorded a USD 421.2 million surplus. Reserves were USD 6.0 billion, or 4.3 months of projected imports.
How large is Tanzania's national debt?
USD 52,344.2 million at end-September 2026: external debt of USD 36,784.2 million (70.3%) and domestic debt of TZS 41.1 trillion. External debt arrears doubled in a year to USD 1,197.4 million, led by commercial creditors.
What did the July 2026 Foreign Exchange Amendment Regulations change?
Government Notice No. 206 of 17 July 2026 removed geographical restrictions and the minimum holding period on Government securities, opening Tanzania's Treasury bill and bond market to investors worldwide. The Bank of Tanzania expects deeper liquidity, lower borrowing costs and better price discovery, with risks from abrupt outflows.
What is the Tanzanian shilling exchange rate against the US dollar?
The shilling averaged TZS 2,654.91 per USD in September 2026 (TZS 2,657.01 in August), a marginal appreciation on the month and a 7.4% depreciation on the year, largely a base effect from a sharp appreciation in September 2025.
What is the inflation rate in Zanzibar?
4.3% in September 2026, down from 5.6% in August, on lower food prices (food inflation 6.9% from 9.8%). It was 3.5% in September 2025.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Taarifa ya Uchumi wa Tanzania, Oktoba 2026: Kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (Oktoba 2026, takwimu hadi Septemba 2026), bei zimetulia lakini muundo wake umebadilika; mikopo inaongezeka kwa kasi; na hali ya nje imeshinikizwa na mafuta.
Mfumuko wa bei: asilimia 4.3 Septemba 2026, ndani ya lengo la asilimia 3–5 (Septemba 2025 ulikuwa asilimia 3.4). Mfumuko wa bei wa chakula ulishuka kutoka asilimia 7.0 hadi 3.9, lakini wa usafirishaji ulipanda kutoka asilimia 2.1 hadi 14.0, na wa huduma kutoka 1.3 hadi 6.1. Mfumuko wa msingi (core) ni asilimia 4.1, kutoka 2.2, na unachangia pointi 3.1 kati ya 4.3.
Sera ya fedha na mikopo: Kiwango cha Riba cha Benki Kuu (CBR) kiliongezwa hadi asilimia 6.25 kutoka 5.75. Hata hivyo, mikopo kwa sekta binafsi ilikua asilimia 34.2 hadi TZS trilioni 56.4, na ujazo wa fedha (M3) ulikua asilimia 25.9. Mikopo ya usafirishaji na mawasiliano ilikua asilimia 78.3. Mali halisi za kigeni zilishuka asilimia 17.3, na za benki za biashara zimekuwa hasi.
Masoko ya fedha: minada ya hati fungani na bili ilijaa zabuni nyingi (hati fungani za miaka 10 asilimia 10.69, kutoka 13.74). Kuanzia tarehe 17 Julai 2026 (GN Na. 206), hati za Serikali zimefunguliwa kwa wawekezaji wa dunia nzima bila kikomo cha muda wa kushikilia. Shilingi ilikuwa wastani wa TZS 2,654.91 kwa dola.
Bajeti na deni: makusanyo ya Julai 2026 yalikuwa TZS bilioni 3,502.2, asilimia 9.5 juu ya lengo, lakini malipo ya riba yalikuwa asilimia 33.7 juu ya makadirio. Deni la taifa ni USD milioni 52,344.2 (nje asilimia 70.3; ndani TZS trilioni 41.1). Malimbikizo ya madeni ya nje yamezidi mara mbili hadi USD bilioni 1.20, hasa madeni ya kibiashara.
Sekta ya nje: nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa iliongezeka asilimia 27.6 hadi USD milioni 2,397.5 kwa miezi 12. Uagizaji wa bidhaa za mafuta ulipanda asilimia 72.3 hadi USD bilioni 3.8, ukizidi ongezeko la dhahabu (USD bilioni 5.8, +asilimia 31.7). Mauzo ya bidhaa na huduma yaliongezeka asilimia 19.9 hadi USD bilioni 21.1. Akiba ya fedha za kigeni ni USD bilioni 6.0, sawa na miezi 4.3 ya uagizaji.
Zanzibar: mfumuko wa bei ulishuka hadi asilimia 4.3 (kutoka 5.6 Agosti); ziada ya akaunti ya sasa ilikua asilimia 18.7 hadi USD milioni 986.8; mauzo ya karafuu yaliruka hadi USD milioni 38 kutoka 6.2.
Hitimisho na hatua: tofauti na kichwa cha habari, shinikizo zinajengeka chini: mfumuko wa msingi, ukuaji wa mikopo, bili ya mafuta, na malimbikizo ya madeni. Vitu vya kufuatilia: mfumuko juu ya asilimia 5, bei ya mafuta juu ya USD 100, akiba chini ya miezi 4, na ubora wa mikopo.
- Mfumuko: 4.3% · Msingi: 4.1% · Usafirishaji: 14.0% · CBR: 6.25%
- Mikopo binafsi: +34.2% · M3: +25.9% · Akaunti ya sasa: −USD milioni 2,397.5
- Deni la taifa: USD milioni 52,344.2 · Malimbikizo ya nje: USD milioni 1,197.4 (+105%)
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; NBS; Wizara ya Fedha; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.