January 2026 - Comprehensive Analysis
Tanzania's economy demonstrated remarkable resilience and strong performance through November 2025, with robust growth, stable inflation, and an appreciating currency. The country's macroeconomic fundamentals remain solid, supported by strong export performance, prudent fiscal management, and effective monetary policy implementation by the Bank of Tanzania.
🎯 Key Achievement: Tanzania's shilling appreciated by 8.1% year-on-year, reversing previous depreciation trends while maintaining inflation within the 3-5% target range at 3.4%.
By end-November 2025, Tanzania's national debt reached approximately TZS 128.4 trillion (USD 51.9 billion), reflecting a development-financing strategy anchored largely on external resources. The debt structure demonstrates a manageable position with controlled monthly growth of 0.4%.
| Debt Category | Amount (TZS Trillion) | Amount (USD Billion) | Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt | 90.0 | 36.1 | 69.7% |
| Domestic Debt | 38.4 | 15.8 | 30.3% |
| Total National Debt | 128.4 | 51.9 | 100% |
Tanzania's external debt of USD 36.1 billion is heavily USD-denominated at 66.8%, making exchange rate stability crucial for debt servicing costs. However, partial diversification across major currencies provides risk mitigation.
| Currency | Amount (USD Million) | Percentage Share |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar (USD) | 24,127.7 | 66.8% |
| Euro (EUR) | 6,333.6 | 17.5% |
| Japanese Yen (JPY) | 3,219.0 | 8.9% |
| Chinese Yuan (CNY) | 1,334.5 | 3.7% |
| Other Currencies | 1,112.9 | 3.1% |
The Tanzania Shilling demonstrated remarkable strength in November 2025, appreciating from TZS 2,460.54/USD in October to TZS 2,444.81/USD in November—a gain of TZS 15.73. The year-on-year appreciation of 8.1% reversed the depreciation trend observed in late 2024.
| Indicator | October 2025 | November 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Exchange Rate (TZS/USD) | 2,460.54 | 2,444.81 | -15.73 TZS |
| IFEM Turnover (USD Million) | 133.7 | 158.7 | +18.7% |
| BoT Net FX Intervention (USD Million) | — | 52.5 | Net Sale |
| Year-on-Year Change | +8.1% Appreciation | From -6.3% in Nov 2024 | |
💡 Key Insight: The shilling's appreciation reduced imported inflation pressures and lowered the TZS-equivalent cost of USD-denominated debt servicing, contributing to overall macroeconomic stability.
Tanzania maintained impressive price stability in November 2025, with headline inflation at 3.4%—comfortably within the Bank of Tanzania's 3-5% target range. Core inflation remained subdued at 2.3%, indicating well-anchored demand-side pressures.
| Inflation Measure | November 2024 | October 2025 | November 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Inflation (%) | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Core Inflation (%) | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Energy, Fuel & Utilities (%) | 5.7 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Central Bank Rate (%) | 5.75 | 5.75 | |
Tanzania's external sector strengthened markedly, with the 12-month cumulative current account deficit narrowing to USD 3.43 billion—a 34.3% improvement from USD 5.22 billion in November 2024. This improvement was driven by robust export performance and strong tourism receipts.
| Service Category | Receipts (USD M) | Payments (USD M) | Share of Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travel (Tourism) | 3,791.4 | 777.2 | 55.8% |
| Transportation | 2,079.3 | 2,458.9 | 30.6% |
| Other Business Services | 451.5 | 1,333.7 | 6.6% |
| Government Services | 257.3 | 464.5 | 3.8% |
| Telecom, Computer & Information | 222.6 | 438.6 | 3.2% |
| Total | 6,802.1 | 5,472.9 | 100% |
Tourism remained a critical pillar of Tanzania's economy, with Zanzibar recording exceptional performance. Tourist arrivals to Zanzibar reached 736,755 in the 12 months to November 2025, representing a robust 16.2% year-on-year increase.
| Indicator | October 2025 | November 2025 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Inflation (%) | 4.8 | 4.6 | Declining |
| Food Inflation (%) | 7.2 | 6.8 | Moderating |
| Non-Food Inflation (%) | 3.3 | 3.1 | Stable |
| GDP Growth (2024) | 7.1% | Above National Average | |
🏝️ Tourism Impact: Zanzibar's tourism sector contributed USD 3.79 billion (55.8% of total services receipts) to Tanzania's foreign exchange earnings, making it the largest single source of service exports.
Tanzania's financial markets reflected strong liquidity and investor confidence in November 2025. Government securities auctions were heavily oversubscribed, with Treasury Bills attracting 2.3× oversubscription and Treasury Bonds recording approximately 3.0× oversubscription.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Tender Size | TZS 352.0 billion |
| Total Bids Received | TZS 798.4 billion |
| Amount Accepted | TZS 369.2 billion |
| Oversubscription Ratio | 2.3 times |
| Weighted Average Yield | 6.25% |
| Previous Month Yield | 6.27% |
Tanzania's government domestic debt of TZS 38.36 trillion is anchored by a stable and diversified creditor base, with institutional investors—commercial banks (28.6%) and pension funds (27.4%)—accounting for 56.0% of total holdings.
| Creditor Category | Amount (TZS Billion) | Percentage Share |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial Banks | 10,979.9 | 28.6% |
| Pension Funds | 10,503.3 | 27.4% |
| Bank of Tanzania (BoT) | 5,671.5 | 14.8% |
| Other Financial Institutions | 5,596.8 | 14.6% |
| Retail Investors | 5,609.8 | 14.6% |
| Total | 38,361.3 | 100% |
Controlled inflation, appreciating currency, and adequate foreign reserves demonstrate strong fundamentals.
Robust growth in arrivals and receipts, particularly in Zanzibar, providing crucial FX inflows.
Current account deficit narrowed by 34.3%, driven by strong export performance.
Moderate debt growth (0.4% monthly) and diversified creditor base support fiscal stability.
Heavy oversubscription of government securities reflects strong investor confidence.
BoT's interventions successfully stabilized the shilling while maintaining accommodative stance.
High USD-denominated debt (66.8%) creates vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations.
Elevated at 6.8% due to supply constraints and import dependence.
External debt accounts for 69.7% of total, requiring continued prudent management.
Policy Recommendation: Maintain current prudent fiscal and monetary policies, continue diversifying export base beyond tourism and minerals, and gradually increase domestic debt share to reduce FX vulnerability while supporting infrastructure development.
Primary Sources:
Reporting Period: End-November 2025 (12-month cumulative data where indicated)
Publication Date: January 2026