1. Tanzania Inflation — April 2026 & December 2025 Overview
Sources: NBS NCPI Dec 2025 | BOT MER May 2026 (Table 2.1.1 & Table A9)
Headline Inflation
4.0%
April 2026 (annual)
↑ from 3.2% (Mar 2026)
Food Inflation
5.7%
April 2026 (annual)
↑ from 5.5% (Mar 2026)
Core Inflation
3.1%
April 2026 (annual)
↑ from 2.2% (Mar 2026)
Energy/Fuel Inflation
5.3%
April 2026 (annual)
↑ from 2.1% (Mar 2026)
Headline Inflation Trend — Jan 2024 to Apr 2026 (%)
Inflation by Category — Annual % Change, April 2026
Tanzania NCPI — Monthly Inflation by Main Groups (Annual % Change, Base 2020=100)
| Main Group | Weight (%) | Apr-25 MoM | Mar-26 MoM | Apr-26 MoM | Apr-25 Annual | Mar-26 Annual | Apr-26 Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 28.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.7 |
| Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Clothing & Footwear | 10.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels | 15.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Furnishings, Household Equipment | 7.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Health | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Transport | 14.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 9.2 |
| Information & Communication | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Recreation, Sport & Culture | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Education Services | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| Restaurants & Accommodation | 6.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Insurance & Financial Services | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Personal Care & Miscellaneous | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| ALL ITEMS (Headline) | 100.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| Core Index | 73.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| Non-Core Index | 26.1 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 6.3 |
| Energy, Fuel & Utilities | 5.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 5.3 |
| Services Index | 37.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
| Goods Index | 62.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| All Items Less Food & Non-Alc Beverages | 71.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 3.3 |
Key Finding: Tanzania's headline inflation jumped from 3.2% in March 2026 to 4.0% in April 2026 — the highest level in the current measurement period. The primary driver was transport inflation surging to 9.2% annually, reflecting pass-through effects of rising global fuel prices linked to the Middle East geopolitical conflict. Food inflation at 5.7% and energy/fuel inflation at 5.3% compounded pressures. Core inflation rising to 3.1% signals that inflationary pressures are becoming more broadly entrenched beyond volatile components.
NBS NCPI December 2025 — Full Year Inflation Comparison (2024 vs 2025)
| Indicator | 2024 Avg | 2025 Avg | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Inflation | 3.1% | 3.3% | +0.2pp |
| Food Inflation | 2.1% | 6.4% | +4.3pp |
| Non-Food Inflation | 3.5% | 2.0% | -1.5pp |
| Core Inflation | 3.4% | 2.2% | -1.2pp |
| Non-Core Inflation | 2.2% | 6.2% | +4.0pp |
| Dec 2025 NCPI Index | 116.87 | 121.11 | +3.6% |
| Dec Headline Rate | 3.1% | 3.6% | +0.5pp |
NBS Finding: Food inflation dominated 2025, rising from 2.1% to 6.4%. Core inflation actually declined, confirming that 2025 inflationary pressures were primarily food and supply-chain driven rather than structural monetary causes.
2. Tanzania Interest Rates — Lending & Deposit Rate Analysis
Focus Section | Source: BOT MER May 2026, Table 2.3.1 & Table A4
Tanzania's interest rate environment in April 2026 is characterised by stubbornly high lending rates alongside gradually rising deposit rates — a combination that sustains a significant spread between what borrowers pay and what savers earn. Understanding this dynamic is critical for investment decisions, business financing costs, and household savings behaviour.
The Bank of Tanzania's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75% through Q2 2026, while simultaneously narrowing the CBR corridor from 200 basis points to 150 basis points to strengthen monetary policy transmission.
Overall Lending Rate
15.33%
April 2026
↑ from 15.11% in Mar-26
Negotiated Lending Rate
12.56%
April 2026 (Prime customers)
↑ from 12.21% in Mar-26
Overall Deposit Rate
8.54%
April 2026
↑ from 8.33% in Mar-26
12-Month Deposit Rate
9.81%
April 2026
↑ from 9.60% in Mar-26
Lending Rate vs. Deposit Rate Trend — Mar 2025 to Apr 2026 (%)
Short-Term Interest Rate Spread (Lending minus Deposit) — %
Tanzania Bank Interest Rates — Full Structure (%) | Apr 2025 to Apr 2026
| Interest Rate Type | Apr-25 | Dec-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | 12-mo Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LENDING RATES | |||||||
| Overall Lending Rate | 15.16 | 15.24 | 15.10 | 15.11 | 15.11 | 15.33 | +0.17pp |
| Short-Term Lending Rate (≤1 year) | 16.15 | 15.46 | 15.49 | 15.41 | 15.45 | 15.31 | -0.84pp |
| Negotiated Lending Rate (Prime) | 12.88 | 12.38 | 12.25 | 12.19 | 12.21 | 12.56 | -0.32pp |
| DEPOSIT RATES | |||||||
| Overall Time Deposit Rate | 7.82 | 8.36 | 8.33 | 8.32 | 8.33 | 8.54 | +0.72pp |
| 12-Month Deposit Rate | 9.27 | 9.58 | 9.70 | 9.82 | 9.60 | 9.81 | +0.54pp |
| Negotiated Deposit Rate | 10.52 | 11.66 | 11.74 | 11.48 | 11.57 | 11.37 | +0.85pp |
| Savings Deposit Rate | 2.89 | 3.02 | 2.94 | 2.98 | 2.89 | 2.91 | +0.02pp |
| SPREAD & POLICY RATES | |||||||
| Short-Term Interest Rate Spread | 6.88 | 5.88 | 5.79 | 5.59 | 5.85 | 5.50 | -1.38pp |
| Central Bank Rate (CBR) | 5.30 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | +0.45pp |
| Lombard Rate | 8.00 | 7.75 | 7.75 | 7.75 | 7.75 | 7.75 | -0.25pp |
| Repo Rate | 5.30 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 | +0.45pp |
| Overall T-Bill Rate (Weighted Avg) | 8.86 | 5.87 | 5.89 | 5.68 | 5.21 | 5.06 | -3.80pp |
Lending Rates by Tenor — April 2026 vs. April 2025 (%)
Deposit Rates by Tenor — April 2026 (%)
Treasury Bill Rates by Tenor — Mar 2025 to Apr 2026 (%)
Interest Rate Insight — High Spread Constrains Credit: The spread between overall lending rates (15.33%) and the Central Bank Rate (5.75%) stands at approximately 9.58 percentage points. While this spread has been narrowing year-on-year (from 6.88pp in Apr-25 to 5.50pp short-term spread in Apr-26), it remains exceptionally high by international standards. This constrains credit access for SMEs and long-term investment, and partially explains why private sector credit growth (23.6%) is concentrated in trade and personal loans rather than in manufacturing or capital investment. The BOT's decision to narrow the CBR corridor signals an intent to improve monetary policy transmission and gradually reduce this gap.
Foreign Currency Interest Rates (USD-denominated) — April 2026 vs. April 2025
| Foreign Currency Rate | Apr-25 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | 12-mo Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall FC Lending Rate | 8.89% | 8.70% | 8.96% | +0.07pp |
| FC Short-Term Lending (≤1yr) | 9.97% | 10.00% | 10.07% | +0.10pp |
| FC Long-Term Lending (3-5yr) | 8.36% | 9.09% | 9.19% | +0.83pp |
| Overall FC Deposit Rate | 2.94% | 4.26% | 4.41% | +1.47pp |
| FC 12-Month Deposit Rate | 3.01% | 4.35% | 4.83% | +1.82pp |
| FC Savings Rate | 0.53% | 1.22% | 1.68% | +1.15pp |
| FC-TZS Lending Spread | ~6.27pp | ~6.41pp | ~6.37pp | Broadly stable |
3. Monetary Policy & Money Supply (M3)
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Sections 2.2 & Table 2.2.1
CBR (Policy Rate)
5.75%
Q2 2026 (Unchanged)
M3 Money Supply
22.0%
Annual growth, Apr 2026
↓ from 23.2% (Mar-26)
Private Sector Credit
23.6%
Annual growth, Apr 2026
↓ from 24.3% (Mar-26)
M3 Stock
TZS 65.1T
April 2026 (billion)
M3 Money Supply — Growth Rate Trend (%)
Credit to Private Sector by Sector — Growth Rate Apr 2026 (%)
Money Supply Components — Outstanding Stock (Billions TZS) | Apr 2025 vs. Apr 2026
| Monetary Aggregate | Apr-25 (TZS Bn) | Mar-26 (TZS Bn) | Apr-26 (TZS Bn) | Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Broad Money (M3) | 53,337.7 | 64,246.7 | 65,091.9 | 22.0% |
| Broad Money (M2) | 39,491.4 | 49,248.3 | 50,102.9 | 26.9% |
| Narrow Money (M1) | 24,013.1 | 30,176.9 | 31,151.6 | 29.7% |
| Reserve Money (M0) | 11,878.9 | 14,998.9 | 15,670.5 | 31.9% |
| Currency in Circulation | 7,024.1 | 8,078.3 | 8,107.1 | 15.4% |
| Foreign Currency Deposits | 13,846.3 | 14,998.4 | 14,989.0 | 8.3% |
| Claims on Private Sector | 38,755.8 | 47,216.5 | 47,919.3 | 23.6% |
| Net Foreign Assets (Banking System) | 14,658.6 | 15,245.6 | 14,553.0 | -0.7% |
4. Financial Markets — Government Securities & Interbank
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 2.4 & Table A4
T-Bill Weighted Avg Yield
5.06%
Apr 2026 (overall)
↓ from 5.21% (Mar-26)
5-Year Bond Yield
9.54%
April 2026
↓ from 10.54%
10-Year Bond Yield
9.40%
April 2026
↓ from 11.30%
IBCM Rate (Overall)
7.32%
April 2026
↑ from 6.32% (Mar-26)
Treasury Bill Rates by Tenor — Apr 2025 to Apr 2026 (%)
Government Bond Yields — Historical Comparison (%)
Government Securities Market: Tanzania's government securities market remains highly active and oversubscribed, with April 2026 T-bill auctions attracting TZS 859.5 billion in bids against a TZS 429.8 billion tender — a 2x oversubscription ratio. Bond yields have trended significantly downward from their 2025 highs, with the 10-year bond yield declining from 14.26% (Apr-25) to 9.40% (Apr-26). This yield compression reflects improved government credibility, strong investor demand, and the BOT's liquidity management operations.
5. External Sector Performance — Exports, Imports & Currency
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 2.7 & Table 2.7.1, A5, A6, A7
Total Exports (Year Apr-26)
$18.9Bn
+13.5% annual growth
Total Imports (Year Apr-26)
$19.9Bn
+15.5% annual growth
Forex Reserves
$5,722M
4.4 months import cover
TZS/USD Rate
2,612
+2.7% appreciation (Apr-26)
Tanzania Exports — Top Commodities Year-Ending April 2026 vs 2025 (USD Millions)
Tanzania Current Account Balance (Year-Ending April, USD Millions)
Current Account Summary — Year Ending April (USD Millions)
| Account Item | 2024 | 2025 | 2026p | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports of Goods | 9,121.6 | 9,682.7 | 11,215.0 | +15.8% |
| Imports of Goods | 14,195.6 | 14,236.3 | 16,568.5 | +16.4% |
| Services Receipts | 6,846.8 | 6,942.3 | 7,661.7 | +10.4% |
| Services Payments | 2,795.0 | 3,034.2 | 3,376.1 | +11.3% |
| Export of Goods & Services | 14,281.7 | 16,625.0 | 18,876.7 | +13.5% |
| Import of Goods & Services | 16,110.2 | 17,270.5 | 19,944.6 | +15.5% |
| Current Account Balance | -2,769.1 | -2,112.1 | -2,651.8 | +25.6% |
| Forex Reserves (USD Mn) | 5,546.9 | 6,329.0 | 5,722.5 | — |
| Import Cover (Months) | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.4 | — |
6. Government Fiscal Operations — Revenue & Expenditure
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 2.5 & Table A2
Total Revenue (Mar 2026)
TZS 3,837Bn
8.5% above target
Tax Revenue (Mar 2026)
TZS 3,318Bn
10.8% above target
Total Expenditure (Mar 2026)
TZS 4,273Bn
Development: TZS 1,728Bn
Income Tax (Mar 2026)
TZS 1,548Bn
17.2% above target
Revenue Components — March 2026: Actual vs Target (TZS Billions)
Expenditure Structure — March 2026 (TZS Billions)
7. National Debt Developments
Source: BOT MER May 2026, Section 2.6 & Table A10, Tables 2.6.1–2.6.6
Total National Debt
$51,067M
End April 2026
↑ 0.5% from Mar-26
External Debt Stock
$35,950M
70.4% of total debt
Domestic Debt Stock
TZS 39,336Bn
+2.3% from Mar-26
Public Ext. Debt Share
82.7%
Of total external debt
External Debt by Creditor — April 2026 (USD Millions)
External Debt Currency Composition — April 2026 (%)
Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instrument — April 2026 vs April 2025 (TZS Billions)
| Instrument | Apr-25 (TZS Bn) | Share | Mar-26 (TZS Bn) | Apr-26 (TZS Bn) | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government Securities | 29,582.4 | 85.1% | 33,321.1 | 33,438.1 | 85.0% |
| — Treasury Bills | 1,935.6 | 5.6% | 1,575.3 | 1,518.7 | 3.9% |
| — Government Bonds | 27,459.6 | 79.0% | 31,609.9 | 31,783.7 | 80.8% |
| Non-Securitized Debt (Overdraft) | 5,159.1 | 14.8% | 5,126.8 | 5,897.6 | 15.0% |
| Total Domestic Debt | 34,759.9 | 100% | 38,447.9 | 39,335.8 | 100% |
8. NBS Consumer Price Index Detail — December 2025
Source: NBS NCPI Press Release, December 2025 (Ref: AC 334/376/01/374)
NCPI December 2025 — All Main Groups (Index Value 2020=100 & Annual Change)
| S/N | Main Group | Weight % | Dec-24 Index | Nov-25 Index | Dec-25 Index | 1-Month % | 12-Month % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 28.2 | 124.27 | 129.98 | 132.56 | 2.0 | 6.7 |
| 2 | Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco | 1.9 | 110.33 | 113.67 | 114.08 | 0.4 | 3.4 |
| 3 | Clothing & Footwear | 10.8 | 113.17 | 115.26 | 115.46 | 0.2 | 2.0 |
| 4 | Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels | 15.1 | 115.59 | 117.70 | 118.27 | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| 5 | Furnishings, Household Equipment & Maintenance | 7.9 | 114.38 | 117.61 | 117.81 | 0.2 | 3.0 |
| 6 | Health | 2.5 | 108.43 | 109.70 | 109.79 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| 7 | Transport | 14.1 | 118.37 | 121.50 | 123.19 | 1.4 | 4.1 |
| 8 | Information & Communication | 5.4 | 106.16 | 106.49 | 106.70 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| 9 | Recreation, Sport & Culture | 1.6 | 110.54 | 110.89 | 110.82 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| 10 | Education Services | 2.0 | 108.84 | 112.01 | 112.01 | 0.0 | 2.9 |
| 11 | Restaurants & Accommodation Services | 6.6 | 116.39 | 117.49 | 117.48 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| 12 | Insurance & Financial Services | 2.1 | 101.92 | 102.27 | 102.34 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| 13 | Personal Care, Social Protection & Misc. | 2.1 | 116.64 | 118.40 | 118.09 | -0.3 | 1.2 |
| TOTAL — ALL ITEMS INDEX | 100.0 | 116.87 | 120.01 | 121.11 | 0.9 | 3.6 | |
| Core Index | 73.9 | 114.45 | 116.77 | 117.26 | 0.4 | 2.5 | |
| Non-Core Index | 26.1 | 123.73 | 129.21 | 132.04 | 2.2 | 6.7 | |
| Energy, Fuel & Utilities Index | 5.7 | 125.25 | 129.33 | 131.02 | 1.3 | 4.6 | |
| Services Index | 37.2 | 111.81 | 113.49 | 114.03 | 0.5 | 2.0 | |
| Goods Index | 62.8 | 119.86 | 123.87 | 125.31 | 1.2 | 4.5 | |
NCPI Movement Dec 2024 to Dec 2025 — Index Value & Inflation Rate
Dec 2025 Annual Inflation by Category (12-Month % Change)
Data Sources: Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review — May 2026 | National Bureau of Statistics, National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) Press Release — December 2025 (Ref: AC 334/376/01/374) | NBS Statistical Tables A9(i)–A9(iv) | BOT Statistical Tables A2–A10 | Ministry of Finance, Tanzania | Tanzania Revenue Authority | NFRA (National Food Reserve Agency). Data compiled and analysed by Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd (TICGL) / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI). economist@ticgl.com | +255 768 699 002 | ticgl.com