The introduction of new US reciprocal tariffs in 2025, often referred to as Trump tariffs, is reshaping global trade patterns, creating mixed impacts for Africa and Tanzania. According to the WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025, Africa’s merchandise exports are expected to grow by +0.6% in 2025, slightly higher than previous forecasts, as US buyers seek new suppliers outside China. Least-developed countries, including Tanzania, are projected to benefit from this trade diversion, with export growth for LDCs rising to +4.8%. However, Africa’s services exports, which include key sectors like transport and tourism, are expected to contract by -1.6%, reversing earlier positive expectations. For Tanzania, opportunities lie in expanding agricultural, textile, and gold exports, but risks remain in its tourism and logistics sectors. Despite these challenges, Africa's overall GDP impact is minimal, with projected growth hovering around 0.0% change, reflecting resilience but also vulnerability to further global trade uncertainties.

Africa - Overall Trade Outlook 2025

• Africa’s Merchandise Exports (2025 forecast):
  • Growth: +0.6% (adjusted, after tariffs and uncertainty).
  • 2024 growth was +1.3%.
• Africa’s Merchandise Imports:
  • 2025 forecast: +6.5% growth.
  • Strong import recovery after a slow 2024 (+1.8%).
• Africa’s Services Exports:
  • 2025 baseline forecast was +1.8%.
  • Adjusted forecast: -1.6% decline (due to global uncertainty).
• Impact on Africa’s GDP:
  • 2025 GDP growth is forecast to slow by -0.04% to flat 0.0% growth​.
  • This indicates a mild but noticeable slowdown.

Tanzania Specific Points

• Tanzania is not individually highlighted among Africa's top 10 traders in the WTO report.
• However, based on the region-wide Africa performance and Tanzania's recent growth patterns:
  • Tanzania’s exports (goods and services) are likely to grow modestly, mainly due to opportunities in agriculture, gold, tourism, and digitally delivered services.
  • Risks:
    • Weaker demand from Europe and China.
    • Rising competition from other LDCs benefiting from US-China trade diversions​.

Key Opportunity for Tanzania:
New US demand for textiles, agricultural products, and electronics substitutes from African countries could support +4% to +5% export growth if leveraged well​.

Top 10 African Countries (Trade Outlook 2025)

Note: Rankings based on 2024 export size and WTO forecasts​​.

Quick Figure Highlights:

• Africa's contribution to world trade growth: Only +0.4 percentage points in 2025​.
• Africa’s share in digitally delivered services exports: 0.9% in 2024, slowly rising​.
• Overall world trade contraction: -0.2% (2025).

"Africa’s trade will show mixed results in 2025, with strong import growth but only modest export recovery. Tanzania could benefit from shifts in global trade, but services exports will remain vulnerable."

Impact of Trump Tariffs on Africa (Including Tanzania)

Impact on Tanzania Specifically

• Export Opportunities:
  • Tanzania could gain market access in the US for textiles, garments, agriculture as US buyers look for alternatives to Chinese goods​.
  • Strong sectors: gold exports, horticulture, and tourism recovery.
• Risks:
  • Services sector (tourism, logistics) could suffer because of lower global travel demand: services exports expected to fall -1.6% for Africa, including Tanzania​.
  • Logistics costs may increase (higher shipping costs), which could hurt exporters' competitiveness.
• GDP Impact:
  • Tanzania’s GDP growth impact is very minor (similar to Africa average at 0.0% to slight negative).
  • If global uncertainty spreads more, Tanzania's exports could slow more sharply in late 2025.

Short Conclusion:

"Trump tariffs could offer Tanzania a chance to expand goods exports, especially to the US, but services like tourism and shipping face a slowdown. Overall, Africa will see modest export gains but services sector pain."