External Debt Dominates at 70.6% (Sept 2025)

As of September 2025, Tanzania’s total public debt stood at TZS 127,474.5 billion, with external debt accounting for 70.6% (TZS 90,015.4 billion) and domestic debt contributing 29.4% (TZS 37,459.1 billion), reflecting an externally oriented but development-focused financing structure. The external portfolio—converted from USD 35.4 billion using the average rate of TZS 2,471.69/USD—is primarily held by the central government (77.5%) and directed toward high-impact sectors such as transport and infrastructure (28%), social services (20.4%), and energy/minerals (14.3%). Domestic debt remains stable and locally absorbed, dominated by government bonds (73%) and supported by commercial banks (36.4%) and pension funds (23.9%), indicating a deep and liquid local market. This composition aligns with Tanzania’s growth trajectory, supporting infrastructure expansion and social investments while maintaining debt sustainability indicators within acceptable thresholds. However, the heavy exposure to USD (66% of external borrowing) presents FX risk, making shilling performance crucial for managing repayment costs. Overall, the debt structure balances development needs with macroeconomic stability, supported by an appreciating currency, strong reserves, and favorable financing terms from multilateral partners.

1. Tanzania National Debt Overview (September 2025)

Tanzania’s total public debt consists of external debt and domestic debt.

Summary Table — National Debt (TZS)

2. Debt Conversion Explanation

The external debt is originally reported in USD.
The report’s exchange rate is:

• TZS 2,471.69 per USD (September 2025 average)
• USD 35,438.2 million × 2,471.69 = TZS 90,015.4 billion

Domestic debt is already in TZS in the document:

• TZS 37,459.1 billion

3. Detailed Breakdown — External Debt (Converted to TZS)

3.1 External Debt Stock by Borrower

(All USD values from document summary)

3.2 External Debt by User of Funds (Converted to TZS)

✔ Converted using TZS 2,471.69/USD.

4. Detailed Breakdown — Domestic Debt (TZS)

4.1 Domestic Debt Structure by Creditor Category

4.2 Domestic Debt by Instrument Type

5. Combined National Debt Summary (in TZS)

6. Final Summary Table — Tanzania National Debt (TZS)

Implications of Tanzania's National Debt Structure in September 2025

The breakdown of Tanzania's national debt as of September 2025, detailed in Section 2.7 (Debt Developments) of the Bank of Tanzania's (BOT) Monthly Economic Review (October 2025), portrays a balanced yet externally oriented portfolio totaling TZS 127,474.5 billion (equivalent to ~USD 51.6 billion at TZS 2,471.69/USD). External debt dominates at 70.6% (TZS 90,015.4 billion), funding growth-critical sectors like infrastructure (28%) and social services (20.4%), while domestic debt (29.4%, TZS 37,459.1 billion) relies on stable local institutions (e.g., banks 36.4%, pensions 23.9%). This structure—converted from USD figures using the shilling's appreciated rate—reflects prudent borrowing amid 6.3% Q2 GDP growth, low 3.4% inflation, and a TZS 618.5 billion fiscal deficit (partly debt-financed). The composition supports development but amplifies FX risks, given 66% USD-denominated external exposure. Below, I analyze implications across key dimensions, integrating economic context.

1. Debt Composition: External Dominance for Growth Financing

• External Debt (70.6%, TZS 90,015.4B): Predominantly central government (77.5%, TZS 67,854.5B), with private sector (15.1%) and guarantees (7.4%) adding diversification. Usage skews toward productive investments: transport/infrastructure (28%, TZS 24,508.1B) aligns with construction's 1.1% GDP contribution, energy/minerals (14.3%, TZS 12,506.2B) supports mining growth (1.5% GDP), and agriculture/water (14%, TZS 12,280.9B) bolsters food security (NFRA stocks at 570,519 tonnes). Concessional terms (57% multilateral) keep costs low (~1.2% interest).
• Domestic Debt (29.4%, TZS 37,459.1B): Bonds dominate (73%, TZS 27,349.1B) over T-bills (27%, TZS 10,110B), with broad creditor base (other financials 39.7%) indicating deep local markets (oversubscription in securities). This reduces FX volatility spillovers.
• Broader Implications:
  • Positive: Funds 71.9% expenditure execution (TZS 3,346.6B), enabling 6% full-year GDP projection via reliable power and exports. Shilling appreciation (+9.4% y/y) lowers TZS servicing costs (~TZS 3T saved annually on USD portion), improving debt/GDP at 40.1% (below EAC 50% threshold).
  • Risks: High external share exposes to USD swings (66% currency composition), potentially inflating service (projected USD 1,215M in 2025; 4.2% of exports). If global oil rises (easing in September), import bills could pressure reserves (5.8 months cover).

2. Sustainability and Servicing Dynamics

• Borrower and Creditor Profile: Central government's 77.5% external share ensures sovereign control, with multilaterals/bilaterals as primary creditors (low-cost, long maturity ~12.8 years). Domestic's institutional holders (pensions/banks) provide stability, absorbing via oversubscribed auctions (T-bills 2.4x).
• Fund Utilization: 82.7% external to key sectors (infra/social/energy/agri) ties debt to growth multipliers, unlike "others" (14%). This supports private credit (16.1% y/y) without crowding out.
• Broader Implications:
  • Positive: Concessional bias and domestic depth sustain ratios (external service 9.8% exports, down from 11.2% 2024). Aligns with monetary policy (CBR 5.75%), keeping real yields positive (vs. 3.4% inflation) and IBCM stable (6.45%).
  • Risks: Refinancing domestic bonds/T-bills could hike yields if liquidity tightens (e.g., from revenue shortfalls like mining taxes; 87.2% collection). Cumulative growth (+1.4% MoM total debt) demands revenue diversification beyond gold/tourism.

3. Fiscal and Macroeconomic Linkages

• Budgetary Pressures: Debt finances recurrent/development gaps (TZS 2,073.7B/1,272.9B), with servicing rising as % of spend amid delays (71.9% execution). Shilling strength mitigates, but USD exposure ties to global conditions (IMF 3.2% growth).
• Inflation and Growth Ties: Low-cost external funds curb inflationary borrowing, supporting 3–5% target (food 7.0% eased by stocks;). In Zanzibar, analogous structure aids tourism/external performance.
• Broader Implications:
  • Positive: Enhances resilience (reserves USD 6.66B), fostering M3 growth (20.8% y/y) and export surplus (USD 1.0B Q2). Positive for EAC/SADC convergence.
  • Risks: FX depreciation (reversed from 2024's -10.1%) could balloon TZS costs by 10–15%, straining deficit. Commodity volatility (oil down, coffee up) affects agri/energy repayments.

4. Policy Context from the Review

• Synergies: Debt supports fiscal-monetary prudence, with BOT interventions (USD 11M net sale) buffering risks. Projections: Debt/GDP <45% by 2026, aligned with 6% growth and stable inflation.
• Outlook: Strengthen domestic market (e.g., via green bonds) and hedge FX to counter global uncertainties (trade policy index elevated).

In conclusion, Tanzania's September 2025 debt structure implies strategic financing for development amid stability, with external resources driving growth sectors and domestic buffers mitigating risks. The 70.6% external tilt underscores FX vigilance, but concessional terms and shilling strength ensure sustainability—reinforcing the Review's narrative of prudent policies for 2026 resilience.

In June 2025, Tanzania’s national debt reached TZS 116.6 trillion (USD 45.4 billion), a 13.5% increase from TZS 102.8 trillion in June 2024, driven by external borrowing (70.7% of total, TZS 82.4 trillion) for infrastructure and fiscal deficits. The Tanzania Shilling (TZS) depreciated by 9.6% year-on-year against the USD (2,569.46 TZS/USD), raising external debt servicing costs (USD 1–2 billion annually), despite robust reserves of USD 5,307.7 million (4.3 months of import cover). Supported by tourism receipts (USD 7,104 million) and a moderate debt-to-GDP ratio (~44.3%), Tanzania’s debt and TZS remain sustainable in the short term, but import reliance and USD exposure (67.6% of external debt) pose long-term challenges.

Tanzania National Debt Overview (June 2025)

Tanzania’s national debt encompasses public debt (domestic and external) and private sector external debt, critical for assessing fiscal sustainability. The attached document and provided data offer insights into debt stock, composition, and servicing, which are analyzed below.

• Total National Debt:
  • Value: TZS 116.6 trillion (USD 45.4 billion at 2,569.46 TZS/USD).
  • Annual Increase: +13.5% from TZS 102.8 trillion (USD 43.8 billion at 2,345.38 TZS/USD) in June 2024.
  • Context: The document notes the national debt stock at USD 45,586.6 million (~TZS 117.1 trillion) in June 2025, aligning closely with the provided TZS 116.6 trillion. The 13.5% increase reflects increased borrowing for infrastructure (e.g., Standard Gauge Railway, Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant) and fiscal deficits (2.5% of GDP in 2024/25). Earlier data shows USD 48,479.9 million in April 2025 and USD 48,217.0 million in February 2025, suggesting a slight decline by June due to repayments or exchange rate effects.
  • Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Estimated at ~44.3% based on a GDP of ~USD 102.6 billion (2022 GDP of USD 105.1 billion, adjusted for 5.6% growth in 2024 and 6% in 2025). The IMF’s 2024 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) reports a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 35%, below the 55% benchmark for low-income countries, indicating moderate distress risk. However, World Economics estimates a higher GDP (~USD 155.5 billion), implying a lower ratio of ~29.2%, highlighting data variability.
  • Implications: The 13.5% debt increase supports growth-enhancing projects but raises servicing costs (~40% of government expenditures, per IMF). The moderate debt-to-GDP ratio suggests sustainability, but TZS depreciation (9.6% against USD) increases external debt burdens.
• Domestic Debt:
  • Stock: TZS 35.5 trillion (USD ~13.8 billion, 29.3% of total debt).
  • Annual Increase: +11.1% from TZS 32.0 trillion in June 2024.
  • Monthly Increase: +0.9% from May 2025 (~TZS 35.2 trillion, based on April 2025’s TZS 34,759.9 billion).
  • By Instrument:

By Creditor:

• Context: The document confirms TZS 85.9 billion raised via bonds in June 2025, with TZS 93.96 billion spent on debt service (TZS 60.13 billion principal, TZS 33.83 billion interest, correcting the document’s typo of TZS 276.8 billion). The 11.1% annual growth reflects financing of fiscal deficits (e.g., TZS 270.2 billion in May 2025 for Mainland Tanzania). Treasury bonds’ 83.2% share aligns with a shift to long-term instruments, reducing refinancing risks.
• Implications: The diversified creditor base (28.6% banks, 26.1% pension funds) and long-term bond dominance enhance stability, but high borrowing rates (15.5% lending rates) crowd out private sector credit, which weakened in Q4 2024. The document’s note on retail investor participation via TIPS (18.1% “Others”) supports financial inclusion.
• External Debt:
  • Stock: TZS 82.4 trillion (USD 33.0 billion, 70.7% of total debt).
  • Annual Increase: +14.8% from TZS 71.8 trillion (USD 30.6 billion) in June 2024.
  • By Borrower:

By Use of Funds:

By Currency:

• Context: The document’s tables (e.g., Table 2.2, 2.3, 2.4) confirm the external debt stock and composition, with USD 109.9 million disbursed in April 2025 for projects like SGR and TAZARA Railway (25.4% transport). The 14.8% increase reflects concessional loans (e.g., IMF’s USD 441 million ECF/RSF, World Bank’s USD 527 million) and non-concessional borrowing (34% of external debt). The 67.6% USD share amplifies risks from the 9.6% TZS depreciation.
• Implications: The central government’s 85.4% share aligns debt with development priorities (e.g., Vision 2050), but low industry (4%) and agriculture (6.5%) allocations limit structural transformation. High USD exposure increases servicing costs (USD 80.9 million in April 2025), with external debt service at ~2.89% of GNI in 2023.
• Debt Servicing:
  • Domestic: TZS 93.96 billion in June 2025 (TZS 60.13 billion principal, TZS 33.83 billion interest), per the document. Annual servicing was TZS 890.9 billion in February 2025 (TZS 609.9 billion principal, TZS 281 billion interest).
  • External: USD 80.9 million in April 2025, with annual estimates of USD 1–2 billion, driven by USD-denominated debt (67.6%) and TZS depreciation.
  • Context: Servicing absorbs ~40% of government expenditures, per IMF, straining fiscal space. Concessional loans (e.g., World Bank, 48% of external debt) mitigate costs, but non-concessional borrowing raises concerns.
  • Implications: High servicing costs limit development spending (33.7% of Zanzibar’s budget), necessitating revenue mobilization (TZS 2,689.2 billion in May 2025, 3.1% above target) and export growth.

Tanzania Shilling (TZS) Sustainability

The TZS’s sustainability is assessed through its exchange rate stability, depreciation trends, and impact on debt servicing, drawing from the provided data and document’s external sector insights (e.g., Charts 2.7.1–2.7.3, Table 2.7.1).

• Exchange Rate Performance:
  • USD/TZS (IFEM):
    • June 2024: 2,345.38
    • May 2025: 2,565.08
    • June 2025: 2,569.46
    • Annual Depreciation: -9.6%
    • Monthly Change: -0.2% (May to June 2025)
  • Bureau de Change:
    • Buying Rate: 2,574.33 TZS/USD
    • Selling Rate: 2,582.67 TZS/USD
  • Other Currencies:

• Context: The document notes improved IFEM liquidity in June 2025, driven by seasonal cash crop exports (e.g., cashew nuts, tobacco) and gold exports (USD 3,369.7 million annually). The 9.6% depreciation aligns with earlier trends (9% in 2024, 8% in 2023), but a slight 0.28% appreciation in October 2024 and 2.6% by January 2025 indicate periods of stability. The BoT’s USD 7 million intervention in January 2025 and reserves of USD 5,307.7 million (4.3 months of import cover) support orderly markets.
• Drivers:
  • Import Demand: Goods imports rose to USD 459.5 million in Zanzibar and USD 13,040.7 million for Tanzania (Table A7), driven by capital goods (e.g., SGR, hydropower).
  • Export Shortfalls: Zanzibar’s exports fell to USD 150.3 million (-11.9%), with cloves down 27.2%. Tanzania’s goods exports grew to USD 1,036 million (Table 2.7.1), led by gold and cereals (USD 501.3 million), but were insufficient to offset imports.
  • Global USD Strength: U.S. monetary tightening increased USD demand, impacting emerging market currencies like the TZS.
• Implications: The 9.6% depreciation raises import and debt servicing costs, contributing to inflation (3.4% in Zanzibar, 3.2% in Mainland). The narrow Bureau spread (0.3%) and low dollarization (3.2% of Mainland businesses use USD) indicate market confidence, but sustained depreciation pressures reserves.
• Forex Market Activity:
  • IFEM Volume: USD 65.4 million in June 2025, +12.6% from USD 58.1 million in May 2025 (document, Page 10). This reflects trade settlements and seasonal imports, compared to USD 95.7 million in December 2024.
  • Reserves: USD 5,307.7 million (Chart 2.7.1), covering 4.3 months of imports, down slightly from USD 5,323.6 million in January 2025 but sufficient per IMF’s 4-month threshold.
  • Implications: Increased IFEM activity signals robust demand, but reserves and BoT interventions (e.g., USD sales) ensure stability. Service receipts (USD 7,104 million, driven by tourism’s 10% arrival increase to 2,333,322) bolster forex inflows.
• TZS Sustainability:
  • Stability: The TZS’s “orderly and market-driven” performance (document, Page 10) and minimal monthly depreciation (-0.2%) indicate short-term stability, supported by reserves and interventions.
  • Risks: The 9.6% annual depreciation and high USD debt exposure (67.6%) increase servicing costs, with external debt service at USD 1–2 billion annually. Import reliance (USD 13,040.7 million) and export volatility (e.g., cloves) strain reserves.
  • Mitigating Factors: Tourism receipts (USD 7,104 million), FDI (USD 3.7 billion), and concessional financing (e.g., IMF’s USD 441 million) support forex inflows. The BoT’s 6% Central Bank Rate (Page 7) controls inflation (3%–5% target), stabilizing the TZS.
  • Implications: The TZS is sustainable in the short term, but long-term pressures from depreciation and import growth require export diversification (e.g., cereals, manufactured goods) and reserve accumulation.

Debt and TZS Sustainability Metrics

Key Insights and Policy Implications

1. Debt Sustainability:
   • Status: The TZS 116.6 trillion debt (44.3% of GDP) is sustainable per the IMF’s DSA (below 55% benchmark), with moderate distress risk. External debt’s 70.7% share and 14.8% growth support infrastructure (25.4% transport) but increase servicing costs (USD 1–2 billion annually).
   • Policy: Prioritize concessional financing (e.g., World Bank’s USD 527 million) and revenue mobilization (TZS 2,339.2 billion tax revenue in May 2025, 4.1% above target) to reduce non-concessional borrowing (34% of external debt).
2. TZS Sustainability:
   • Status: The 9.6% depreciation and stable monthly performance (-0.2%) indicate short-term TZS stability, supported by reserves (USD 5,307.7 million) and tourism receipts (USD 7,104 million). However, import reliance and USD debt exposure pose long-term risks.
   • Policy: Boost exports (e.g., cereals, USD 501.3 million; manufactured goods) via AfCFTA and diversify debt currencies to mitigate USD risks (67.6% share).
3. Debt-TZS Nexus:
   • Impact: TZS depreciation increases external debt servicing costs, with USD 22.3 billion (67.6%) in USD-denominated debt. This contributes to inflation (3.4% in Zanzibar) and fiscal pressure.
   • Policy: Strengthen reserves through FDI (USD 3.7 billion) and tourism (2.3 million arrivals) to stabilize the TZS and reduce servicing costs.
4. Economic Context:
   • Growth: 5.6% GDP growth in 2024 and 6% projected for 2025 support debt absorption, driven by tourism and infrastructure.
   • Risks: TZS depreciation, global USD strength, and export volatility (e.g., cloves -27.2%) threaten sustainability. Climate shocks and election uncertainties (October 2025) add risks.
   • Opportunities: Vision 2050, MKUMBI II reforms, and digital financial inclusion (TIPS, 453.7 million transactions) enhance fiscal and TZS resilience.

Critical Examination of the Establishment Narrative

• Debt Optimism: The BoT and IMF emphasize sustainability (35% debt-to-GDP), but the 13.5% debt increase and 9.6% TZS depreciation raise servicing concerns, especially with USD debt (67.6%). The IMF’s moderate risk rating may understate long-term vulnerabilities if exports (e.g., cloves) or tourism falter.
• TZS Stability: The BoT’s “orderly market” narrative (Page 10) is supported by reserves and interventions, but high import demand (USD 13,040.7 million) and global USD strength challenge long-term TZS sustainability. X posts on regional debt (e.g., Kenya’s unsustainable levels) suggest broader risks.
• Crowding Out: The narrative overlooks domestic borrowing’s crowding-out effect (15.5% lending rates), limiting private sector credit (12.8% growth in January 2025) and Vision 2050’s private sector-led goals.

Between 2021/22 and 2025/26, Tanzania's debt service costs surged by 42–58%, from an estimated TZS 9–10 trillion to a confirmed TZS 14.22 trillion—now accounting for 25.2% of the national budget (TZS 56.49 trillion). Over this period, total public debt rose to approximately 46% of GDP, driven largely by external borrowing, which reached USD 33.9 billion in 2025/26 and remains 67.7% USD-denominated, exposing the country to exchange rate risks, especially following a 2.6% shilling depreciation in 2024/25. Domestic debt also expanded significantly to TZS 34.26 trillion, with the majority held by commercial banks and pension funds. Despite a stabilizing debt-to-GDP ratio and a manageable debt service-to-GNI ratio of 2.89% (2023), the growing reliance on non-concessional and foreign currency debt underscores fiscal vulnerabilities that require prudent debt management strategies to ensure long-term sustainability.

Escalating Service Costs

Tanzania's debt servicing landscape has undergone significant transformation over the past five years, reflecting the country's economic growth trajectory and evolving fiscal priorities. The most striking development is the substantial increase in debt service costs, which have risen from an estimated TZS 9-10 trillion in 2021/22 to TZS 14.22 trillion in 2025/26 – representing a 42-58% increase over the five-year period.

Key Performance Indicators at a Glance:

• Current Debt Service (2025/26): TZS 14.22 trillion (25.2% of national budget)
• Total Public Debt: Approximately 46% of GDP (2025/26)
• External Debt: USD 33.9 billion (67.7% USD-denominated)
• Domestic Debt: TZS 34.26 trillion
• Debt Service-to-GNI Ratio: 2.89% (2023 data)
• Five-Year Growth in Debt Service: 42-58% increase

Detailed Year-by-Year Analysis

2021/22 Financial Year: Foundation Period

The 2021/22 period established the baseline for Tanzania's modern debt management framework. With debt service costs estimated at TZS 9-10 trillion, the government maintained a relatively moderate debt burden at 43.6% of GDP. The debt composition showed a balanced approach with domestic debt at 15.9% of GDP and external debt forming the larger portion. Notably, domestic arrears stood at a manageable 1.8% of GDP, indicating effective short-term debt management.

The present value debt-to-GDP ratio of 31% remained well below the 55% benchmark, positioning Tanzania in the low-to-moderate debt distress risk category. External borrowing was predominantly concessional, reducing the overall cost burden and exchange rate exposure.

2022/23 Financial Year: Strategic Expansion

The government allocated TZS 9.1 trillion for debt servicing within a total budget of TZS 44.4 trillion, with TZS 7.4 trillion successfully disbursed by April 2023. This period marked a strategic shift as public debt increased to 45.7% of GDP (46.7% including domestic arrears), reflecting increased infrastructure investment.

External debt composition rose to 63.3% of total debt, indicating a pivot toward international financing for development projects. The shift toward non-concessional borrowing began during this period, driven by infrastructure financing needs. Despite this increase, the present value debt-to-GDP ratio remained sustainable at 31.8%.

2023/24 Financial Year: Acceleration Phase

Debt servicing allocation reached TZS 10.48 trillion, representing a 15% increase from the previous year. This increase occurred within a Ministry of Finance budget of TZS 15.94 trillion, highlighting debt service as a major fiscal priority. Total public debt climbed to 47.36% of GDP, with external debt reaching USD 30.533 billion by July 2023.

The debt structure showed concerning trends with external debt comprising 73% of total obligations, significantly increasing Tanzania's exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. Total national debt reached approximately TZS 69.44 trillion in 2022, continuing its upward trajectory through 2023.

2024/25 Financial Year: Consolidation Efforts

Debt service costs are estimated at TZS 11-12 trillion within a national budget of TZS 49.35 trillion. External debt peaked at USD 32.89 billion in September 2024, subsequently reaching USD 33.905 billion by January 2025. The central government held 78.1% of external debt, indicating concentrated fiscal responsibility.

Domestic debt stabilized at TZS 32.62 trillion in September 2024, with Treasury bonds dominating at 78.9% of domestic obligations. The debt-to-GDP ratio showed signs of stabilization, with projections indicating a gradual decline to 40.84% by 2029, suggesting improved debt sustainability measures.

2025/26 Financial Year: Current Trajectory

The current budget allocation confirms TZS 14.22 trillion for debt servicing, including TZS 6.49 trillion specifically for interest payments. This represents the highest debt service allocation in the five-year period, occurring within a total budget of TZS 56.49 trillion. External debt stands at USD 33.905 billion, with the government holding 76.4% of these obligations.

Domestic debt has grown to TZS 34.26 trillion as of March 2025, primarily held by commercial banks (29-33%) and pension funds (26.5-27.6%). The USD-dominated debt structure (67.7-68.1%) continues to pose exchange rate risks, particularly given the 2.6% depreciation of the Tanzanian Shilling in 2024/25.

Tanzania National Debt Service Costs (2021/22–2025/26)

Key Observations

1. Trend in Debt Service Costs: Debt service costs have increased steadily, from an estimated TZS 9–10 trillion in 2021/22 to TZS 9.1 trillion in 2022/23, TZS 10.48 trillion in 2023/24, an estimated TZS 11–12 trillion in 2024/25, and a confirmed TZS 14.22 trillion in 2025/26. This reflects growing borrowing, particularly external debt (73% of total debt in 2024), and larger budgets (TZS 44.4 trillion in 2022/23 to TZS 56.49 trillion in 2025/26). The 18–29% jump from 2024/25 to 2025/26 is driven by increased interest payments (TZS 6.49 trillion in 2025/26) and a higher debt stock.
2. Debt Composition: External debt, predominantly USD-denominated (67.7–68.1%), reached USD 33.905 billion in 2025, exposing Tanzania to exchange rate risks, with a 2.6% shilling depreciation in 2024/25 increasing repayment costs. Domestic debt, mainly Treasury bonds (78.9% in 2024), rose from an estimated TZS 22.17 trillion in 2021/22 to TZS 34.26 trillion in 2025/26, held primarily by commercial banks (29–33%) and pension funds (26.5–27.6%).
3. Sustainability: Tanzania’s debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 43.6% in 2021/22 to 47.36% in 2023/24, stabilizing at ~46% in 2024/25–2025/26, with a projected decline to 40.84% by 2029. The debt service-to-GNI ratio was 2.8915% in 2023, indicating moderate debt distress risk per IMF and World Bank analyses. However, reliance on non-concessional borrowing and USD exposure poses challenges, particularly with shilling depreciation.

1. External Debt Stock by Borrower

• Overview: Tanzania’s external debt includes obligations owed to non-residents, repayable in foreign currency, goods, or services. It encompasses public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt (central government and public corporations) and private sector debt. The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) defines external debt based on residency, covering long-term debt, short-term debt, and use of IMF credit. The total external debt stock reflects Tanzania’s financing needs for development projects, balance of payments (BoP) support, and private sector investments.
• May 2025 Performance:
  • Total External Debt Stock: USD 35.60 billion.
  • Borrower Breakdown:
    • Central Government: USD 27.12 billion (76.2% of total).
    • Private Sector: USD 8.48 billion (23.8% of total).
    • Public Corporations: USD 0.004 billion (0.01% of total).
• Context and Analysis:
  • Central Government Dominance: The central government’s 76.2% share (USD 27.12 billion) underscores its role as the primary borrower, funding large-scale infrastructure (e.g., Standard Gauge Railway, Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant) and social programs (e.g., education, health). This aligns with November 2024 data, where the central government held 76.8% (USD 25.43 billion) of a USD 33.14 billion external debt stock. The slight decrease in share (from 76.8% to 76.2%) may reflect increased private sector borrowing or debt repayments.
  • Private Sector Growth: The private sector’s 23.8% share (USD 8.48 billion) indicates growing external borrowing, up from 23.2% (USD 7.70 billion) in November 2024. This reflects private investments in sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism, supported by foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows (USD 922 million in 2021). The increase suggests improved access to commercial loans, though at higher costs compared to multilateral financing.
  • Negligible Public Corporations: Public corporations’ 0.01% share (USD 4 million) is consistent with their minimal role, as seen in September 2024 (USD 3.8 million). This reflects limited borrowing by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), possibly due to government guarantees (2.8% of GDP for National Insurance Corporation) or reliance on central government funding.
  • Economic Drivers: The external debt stock rose from USD 33.14 billion in November 2024 to USD 35.60 billion in May 2025, a 7.4% increase, driven by new disbursements for infrastructure and BoP support. Multilateral creditors (e.g., World Bank, IMF) account for 72.5% of PPG debt, offering concessional terms, while commercial borrowing (30.5% of new disbursements in FY2022/23) has grown, increasing debt servicing costs. The BoT reports no outstanding external debt (Document, Page 12), aligning with IMF findings.
  • Implications: The central government’s dominance (76.2%) places repayment burdens on public finances, requiring robust revenue mobilization (TZS 2,544.1 billion in April 2025). The private sector’s growing share (23.8%) supports economic diversification but exposes it to commercial loan risks. The negligible public corporation share minimizes SOE-related fiscal risks, but contingent liabilities (3% of GDP) warrant monitoring. Tanzania’s debt sustainability remains moderate, with a low risk of external debt distress, supported by IMF financing (USD 441 million approved in April 2025).

2. Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds

• Overview: Disbursed outstanding debt (DOD) reflects funds already utilized from external borrowings, allocated across sectors to drive Tanzania’s development goals under the Third Five-Year National Development Plan (2021/22–2025/26). Key sectors include infrastructure, social services, and BoP support, aligning with Vision 2050’s focus on industrialization and human capital.
• May 2025 Allocation:
  • Sectoral Breakdown (% of DOD):
    • Transport & Telecommunications: 21.5%
    • Budget Support / Balance of Payments: 20.2%
    • Social Welfare & Education: 20.1%
    • Energy & Mining: 13.7%
    • Agriculture: 5.2%
    • Real Estate & Construction: 4.6%
    • Industry: 4.1%
    • Finance & Insurance: 3.8%
    • Tourism: 1.7%
    • Other: 5.2%
• Context and Analysis:
  • Infrastructure Focus: Transport & Telecommunications (21.5%) remains the largest recipient, consistent with September 2024 (21.5%) and December 2019 (27%). Funds support projects like the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and Dar es Salaam Maritime Gateway, enhancing connectivity and trade (exports up 16.8% in April 2025, Document, Page 14). This aligns with the 2025/26 budget’s TZS 7.72 trillion for capital payments.
  • Budget Support: BoP support (20.2%) reflects reliance on external financing to stabilize foreign exchange reserves (USD 5.7 billion, 4 months of import cover). This is critical amid shilling depreciation (2.6% in 2025) and global risks (e.g., trade tensions).
  • Social Investments: Social Welfare & Education (20.1%) supports human capital development (e.g., 28,000 health workers trained in 2025/26), aligning with Vision 2050’s goals. The slight drop from 20.8% in September 2024 may indicate reallocation to other sectors.
  • Energy & Mining: 13.7% funds projects like the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant (3,680 MW), reducing power shortages. The decline from 14.8% in September 2024 suggests completion of major projects or slower disbursements.
  • Underfunded Sectors: Agriculture (5.2%) and Tourism (1.7%) receive low shares, despite contributing 27% and 17% to GDP, respectively. This may reflect reliance on domestic or private funding, but underinvestment risks growth in these sectors.
  • Economic Drivers: The sectoral allocation aligns with Tanzania’s development priorities, but the low share for agriculture (5.2%) contrasts with its 65% employment share, suggesting under prioritization. The 2025/26 budget’s focus on agricultural reforms (e.g., irrigation, TZS 2.6 trillion) aims to address this. Commercial borrowing’s rise (30.5% of new disbursements) increases costs but supports infrastructure and BoP needs.
  • Implications: The focus on transport (21.5%) and social services (20.1%) supports long-term growth (6% GDP projected for 2025), but low allocations to agriculture and tourism may limit inclusive growth. Efficient project implementation is critical to ensure debt-financed investments (USD 35.60 billion) yield returns, as emphasized by the IMF. The high BoP share (20.2%) underscores vulnerability to external shocks, requiring robust export growth (gold, cashew nuts).

3. Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency Composition

• Overview: The currency composition of external debt reflects the denominations in which Tanzania’s obligations are repayable, exposing the country to exchange rate risks. The dominance of major currencies like the USD and Euro is driven by multilateral and commercial creditors.
• May 2025 Composition:
  • Currency Breakdown (% of DOD):
    • US Dollar (USD): 67.4%
    • Euro (EUR): 16.7%
    • Chinese Yuan (CNY): 6.3%
    • Other Currencies: 9.6%
• Context and Analysis:
  • USD Dominance: The 67.4% USD share aligns with February 2023 (68.9%) and November 2024 (67.4%), reflecting reliance on multilateral (e.g., World Bank, IMF) and commercial creditors. The USD’s dominance exposes Tanzania to exchange rate risks, as a 2.6% shilling depreciation in 2025 increases debt servicing costs (e.g., USD 447.9 million in bilateral debt service in 2024).
  • Euro and Yuan: The 16.7% Euro share supports financing from European creditors (e.g., EU, export credits), while the 6.3% Yuan share reflects Chinese loans for infrastructure (e.g., SGR). Both are stable, with Euro usage consistent (17% in 2019) and Yuan growing due to China’s role in energy and transport projects.
  • Other Currencies: The 9.6% share includes currencies like the Japanese Yen and SDRs (IMF credit), aligning with multilateral financing (72.5% of PPG debt). This diversification mitigates some currency risk but remains minor.
  • Economic Drivers: The USD’s dominance is driven by multilateral loans (47.2% of debt stock) and commercial borrowing (30.5% of new disbursements), which favor USD denominations. The shilling’s depreciation (8% in 2023, 2.6% in 2025) increases servicing costs, with external debt service projected at TZS 5.2 trillion in 2025/26. Foreign exchange reserves (USD 5.7 billion, Document, Page 12) provide a buffer, covering 4 months of imports.
  • Implications: The 67.4% USD share heightens vulnerability to shilling depreciation, increasing debt servicing costs (TZS 4,714.8 billion in FY2024/25). Diversifying currency composition or boosting exports (16.8% growth in April 2025) is critical to manage risks. The IMF’s USD 441 million support in April 2025 strengthens reserves, but prudent debt management is needed to maintain sustainability.

Summary Snapshot

Additional Insights and Outlook

• Debt Sustainability: Tanzania’s external debt (USD 35.60 billion, 47.36% of GDP in 2023) remains sustainable, with a moderate risk of distress. The fiscal deficit (2.5% of GDP in 2024/25) and strong revenue performance (TZS 2,544.1 billion in April 2025) support repayment capacity. However, rising commercial borrowing (30.5% of new disbursements) and shilling depreciation (2.6%) increase costs.
• Policy Support: The 2025/26 budget’s TZS 40.47 trillion revenue target and IMF’s USD 441 million financing bolster fiscal space. The BoT’s reserves (USD 5.7 billion, Document, Page 12) and export growth (16.8%) mitigate currency risks.
• Risks: High USD exposure (67.4%) and low agriculture/tourism allocations (5.2%, 1.7%) pose risks to inclusive growth. Upcoming elections (October 2025) may increase fiscal pressures, potentially widening deficits (TZS 743.2 billion in April 2025).
• Outlook: Continued infrastructure and social investments (42.3% of DOD) support 6% GDP growth, but diversifying funding (e.g., domestic bonds, TZS 32.62 trillion stock) and boosting agriculture/tourism allocations are critical. Enhanced debt transparency, as per IMF’s September 2024 assessment, will strengthen sustainability.

Tanzania External Debt Overview - May 2025: Key Figures

In April 2025, Tanzania’s external debt reached USD 35.51 billion, with the central government holding 76.7% (USD 27.22 billion) and the private sector 23.3% (USD 8.28 billion), including significant interest arrears of USD 1.63 billion. Funds were primarily allocated to transport and telecommunications (21.5%), balance of payments and budget support (20.2%), and social welfare and education (19.9%), reflecting priorities in infrastructure and human capital. The debt, predominantly denominated in USD (67.4%), exposes Tanzania to exchange rate risks, mitigated by USD 5.3 billion in reserves. The following table summarizes these key figures.

1. External Debt Stock by Borrowers (April 2025)

The external debt stock represents the total outstanding debt owed to foreign creditors, categorized by borrower type, providing insight into the distribution of debt obligations.

Key Figures:

• Total External Debt Stock: USD 35,505.9 million
• Breakdown by Borrower:

Analysis:

• Central Government Dominance: The central government accounts for 76.7% of the external debt stock (USD 27,224.0 million), with nearly all being disbursed outstanding debt (DOD) at USD 27,146.1 million. The low interest arrears (USD 78.0 million, 0.2%) indicate effective debt servicing, consistent with the Monthey Economic Review’s note of fiscal discipline and a fiscal deficit target below 3% of GDP. TICGL confirm the central government as the largest borrower, holding 78% of external debt in December 2019, a trend that persists into 2025.
• Private Sector Debt: The private sector’s share of 23.3% (USD 8,278.1 million) is significant, with USD 6,641.1 million in DOD and USD 1,637.0 million in interest arrears (4.6% of total debt). The high arrears suggest repayment challenges, possibly due to foreign exchange shortages, as the Tanzanian Shilling (TZS) depreciated by 3.9% annually to TZS 2,684.41/USD in April 2025 (previous responses). TICGL note private sector credit growth of 13.2% in February 2025, indicating active borrowing but potential liquidity constraints.
• Public Corporations: The negligible share of public corporations (USD 3.8 million, 0.0%) reflects minimal external borrowing by state-owned enterprises, likely due to reliance on central government funding or domestic financing. This aligns with TICGL noting public corporations’ 0.4% share in 2019.
• Debt Sustainability: The IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates a moderate risk of external debt distress, with the public debt-to-GDP ratio at 35% in 2024, well below the 55% benchmark. The total external debt of USD 35.51 billion in April 2025, up from USD 32.09 billion in January 2025, suggests rising borrowing but within sustainable limits, supported by gross official reserves of USD 5.3 billion (4.3 months of import cover, previous responses).

Insights:

• The central government’s dominant share (76.7%) reflects its role in financing infrastructure and budget deficits, as seen in the Monthey Economic Review’s mention of Treasury bond auctions (TZS 519.6 billion successful bids, previous responses). Low arrears (0.2%) indicate proactive debt management.
• The private sector’s high interest arrears (USD 1,637.0 million) highlight vulnerabilities to currency depreciation and foreign exchange constraints, consistent with the Monthey Economic Review’s note of lower seasonal foreign exchange inflows (previous responses).
• The negligible public corporation debt suggests a centralized borrowing strategy, reducing fiscal risks from state-owned enterprises.

2. Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds (April 2025)

This breakdown shows how external debt funds are allocated across economic sectors, reflecting government priorities and economic development goals.

Key Figures:

• Total Disbursed Outstanding Debt (DOD): Included in the total external debt of USD 35,505.9 million.
• Breakdown by Sector/Use:

Analysis:

• Transport & Telecommunication (21.5%): The largest share reflects significant investments in infrastructure, such as the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and telecommunications upgrades, aligning with the Monthey Economic Review’s focus on flagship projects. TICGL note transport and telecom as the top sector for external debt allocation since 2019 (27%), indicating sustained priority.
• BoP & Budget Support (20.2%): This substantial share supports fiscal and macroeconomic stability, addressing balance of payments (BoP) needs and budget deficits. The Monthey Economic Review reports a March 2025 deficit of TZS 284.3 billion (previous responses), likely financed partly through external loans, as confirmed by IMF disbursements (USD 440.8 million under the ECF).
• Social Welfare & Education (19.9%): The high allocation to social sectors underscores Tanzania’s focus on human capital, aligning with the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework (2025–2029) emphasizing education and health. This supports the Third Five-Year Development Plan’s goals for inclusive growth.
• Energy & Mining (13.6%): Investments in energy (e.g., Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project) and mining (e.g., gold, contributing USD 3.66 billion in exports) reflect strategic priorities for energy security and resource development. TICGL confirm this sector’s importance, with 15% of debt allocated in 2019.
• Smaller Sectors: Agriculture (5.1%), real estate (4.7%), industries (3.9%), finance & insurance (3.9%), and tourism (1.6%) receive smaller shares, indicating diversified but less prioritized investments. The Monthey Economic Review notes agricultural export growth, suggesting some debt supports this sector’s productivity.

Insights:

• The focus on hard infrastructure (transport, telecom, energy) supports Tanzania’s Vision 2050 goals of structural transformation and 8% GDP growth by 2026, as infrastructure drives economic activity (5.6% GDP growth in 2024).
• The significant BoP and budget support (20.2%) reflects reliance on external financing for fiscal stability, consistent with the IMF’s ECF and RSF programs.
• The 19.9% allocation to social welfare and education aligns with efforts to close human capital gaps, as highlighted by the IMF’s call for increased social spending.

3. Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency Composition (April 2025)

The currency composition of external debt indicates exposure to exchange rate risks and borrowing TICGL.

Key Figures:

• Breakdown by Currency:

Analysis:

• US Dollar Dominance (67.4%): The USD’s dominant share exposes Tanzania to exchange rate risks, as the TZS depreciated by 3.9% annually to TZS 2,684.41/USD in April 2025 (previous responses). TICGL confirm USD dominance at 68.1% in January 2025, consistent with historical trends (68.9% in 2023). This reflects borrowing from multilateral institutions (e.g., IMF, World Bank) and commercial creditors, who account for 53.9% and 36.3% of external debt, respectively.
• Euro (16.8%): The significant Euro share indicates borrowing from European institutions or bilateral creditors (e.g., EU partners). The stable Euro share (16.1% in January 2025) suggests consistent European financing, likely for infrastructure and social projects.
• Chinese Yuan (6.3%): The Yuan’s share reflects China’s role as a key bilateral creditor, likely tied to infrastructure projects like the SGR. TICGL note China as a top FDI source, with Yuan-denominated loans growing in importance.
• Other Currencies (9.5%): This includes currencies like the Japanese Yen or multilateral basket currencies (e.g., IMF’s SDRs), reflecting diversified borrowing. The Monthey Economic Review’s mention of reserves (USD 5.3 billion, previous responses) supports Tanzania’s capacity to manage multi-currency debt obligations.

Insights:

• The USD’s 67.4% share heightens vulnerability to TZS depreciation, as seen in the 1.3% monthly depreciation from March to April 2025 (previous responses). The BoT’s intervention (USD 6.25 million sold in April 2025) mitigates this risk (previous responses).
• The Euro and Yuan shares indicate diversified creditor relationships, reducing reliance on a single currency but requiring careful debt management to avoid currency mismatches.
• The Monthey Economic Review’s stable reserves (4.3 months of import cover) and IMF support provide a buffer against currency-related risks.

Conclusion

Tanzania’s external debt in April 2025, totaling USD 35.51 billion, is predominantly held by the central government (76.7%, USD 27.22 billion), with the private sector contributing 23.3% (USD 8.28 billion), including significant interest arrears (USD 1.63 billion). Funds are primarily allocated to transport and telecommunications (21.5%), BoP and budget support (20.2%), and social welfare and education (19.9%), reflecting priorities in infrastructure and human capital. The debt’s currency composition, dominated by the USD (67.4%), followed by the Euro (16.8%) and Yuan (6.3%), exposes Tanzania to exchange rate risks, mitigated by reserves of USD 5.3 billion and BoT interventions. The debt profile supports growth (projected at 6% in 2025) and fiscal stability, with a moderate risk of distress per the IMF’s DSA.

The following table summarizes these key figures.

Tanzania’s debt development, as outlined in the April 2025 Monthly Economic Review and recent data, influences economic growth through fiscal constraints and resource allocation. Below, we analyze the debt structure, including domestic and external debt figures, percentage changes, and their implications for growth, using specific figures to illustrate impacts.

Debt Structure and Figures

Figures:

• Domestic Debt: TZS 34.26 trillion in March 2025, with 29% held by commercial banks and 26.5% by pension funds.
• External Debt: USD 34.1 billion (approximately TZS 91.29 trillion at TZS 2,677/USD, based on a 2.6% year-on-year exchange rate depreciation, Page 30), with 78.3% held by the central government and 67.7% denominated in US dollars.
• Total National Debt: TZS 91.7 trillion in 2024/25 budget context.
• Public Debt (Historical): 45.5% of GDP in 2022/23, up from 43.6% in 2021/22.
• Percentage Change: Exact year-on-year percentage changes for March 2025 debt are not provided in the document or search results. However, domestic debt uptake increased through treasury bills and bonds, and external debt grew to USD 34.1 billion (), suggesting continued borrowing. For context, public debt rose by 4.4% (45.5% - 43.6% of GDP) from 2021/22 to 2022/23.

Explanation:

• Domestic Debt: The TZS 34.26 trillion domestic debt finances fiscal deficits, with significant holdings by commercial banks (TZS 9.93 trillion, 29%) and pension funds (TZS 9.08 trillion, 26.5%). Increased borrowing indicates rising deficits, potentially driven by a 13.4% planned spending increase to TZS 57.04 trillion in FY 2025/26.
• External Debt: The USD 34.1 billion (TZS 91.29 trillion) external debt supports development projects, with 78.3% (USD 26.7 billion) held by the central government. The 67.7% USD denomination (USD 23.1 billion) exposes Tanzania to exchange rate risks, amplified by a 2.6%-shilling depreciation.
• Debt Sustainability: The IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates a moderate risk of external debt distress, with public debt at 35% of GDP in 2024, below the 55% benchmark (). Total debt service was 2.89% of GNI in 2023.

Impact on Economic Growth

Figures and Explanation:

• Fiscal Space Constraints: Limited fiscal space, noted globally, restricts Tanzania’s ability to fund growth. The FY 2024/25 budget of TZS 49.35 trillion includes TZS 29.41 trillion (59.6%) from tax revenue, leaving a deficit financed by domestic (TZS 34.26 trillion) and external (USD 34.1 billion) borrowing. A planned 13.4% spending increase to TZS 57.04 trillion in FY 2025/26 will further rely on debt, with TZS 16.07 trillion (28.2%) from borrowing.
• Debt Servicing Costs: Debt servicing absorbs significant resources. Historically, external debt servicing consumed 40% of government expenditures. In 2023, total debt service was 2.89% of GNI. For March 2025, servicing TZS 34.26 trillion domestic debt (at, e.g., 15.5% lending rates,) and USD 34.1 billion external debt (at concessional rates,) could cost TZS 5.31 trillion and USD 1-2 billion annually, diverting funds from investments. The 2.6%-shilling depreciation increases external debt costs by TZS 2.37 trillion.
• Crowding-Out Effect: Domestic borrowing of TZS 34.26 trillion (29% by banks) raises lending rates to 15.5%, crowding out private investment. Credit to the private sector weakened in Q4 2024, limiting business growth. The 6% Central Bank Rate mitigates this, but high government borrowing (TZS 4,362 billion average,) strains liquidity.
• Growth Projections: GDP growth is projected at 5.4% in 2024 and 6% in 2025, driven by agriculture (26.5% of GDP), construction (13.2%), and mining (9%). However, debt servicing and fiscal constraints could cap growth below the 6.4% potential by 2026.

Global and Domestic Economic Context

Figures and Explanation:

• Global Risks: The IMF’s global growth forecast of 2.8% for 2025 and rising interest rates increase external borrowing costs. Tanzania’s USD 34.1 billion external debt, with 67.7% in USD, faces higher servicing costs amid global tightening.
• Commodity Impacts: Declining coffee (-2%) and sugar (-1.5%) prices reduce export revenues, straining foreign exchange for debt repayment (Page 3). Gold prices at USD 2,983.25/ounce (+3%) and exports at USD 16.1 billion bolster reserves (USD 5.7 billion, 3.8 months of imports,), easing debt pressures.
• Inflation and Policy: Headline inflation at 3.3% and food inflation at 5.4% (Page 4) increase household costs, potentially slowing consumption. The 6% Central Bank Rate and 587,062-tonne food reserves (32,598 tonnes released) stabilize prices, supporting growth.

Opportunities and Mitigation

Figures and Explanation:

• Development Projects: External debt of USD 34.1 billion funds infrastructure (48% of World Bank’s USD 10 billion portfolio,), like the Standard Gauge Railway, boosting long-term growth. Projects worth TZS 14.81 trillion (30% of FY 2024/25 budget,) enhance connectivity and trade.
• Debt Management: The moderate debt distress risk and concessional financing keep debt sustainable. Revenue mobilization (TZS 2.47 trillion collected in March 2025,) and IMF’s USD 441 million ECF/RSF support () reduce reliance on costly borrowing.
• Fiscal Reforms: Plans to raise tax revenue to TZS 29.41 trillion (10% increase,) and reduce the fiscal deficit to 2.5% of GDP by 2024/25 () enhance fiscal space, freeing resources for growth.

Conclusion

Tanzania’s debt, at TZS 34.26 trillion domestic and USD 34.1 billion (TZS 91.29 trillion) external in March 2025, impacts growth by constraining fiscal space and diverting resources to servicing costs (e.g., TZS 5.31 trillion domestic, USD 1-2 billion external annually). A 2.6%-shilling depreciation and high lending rates (15.5%) exacerbate pressures, crowding out private investment. While debt fuels infrastructure (TZS 14.81 trillion in projects), declining exports (coffee -2%) and global risks (2.8% growth) challenge repayment. Prudent policy (6% CBR, USD 5.7 billion reserves) and revenue growth (TZS 29.41 trillion) mitigate risks, supporting 5.4%-6% GDP growth, but fiscal discipline is crucial.

Key Figures: Tanzania’s Debt Development and Economic Growth (March 2025)

Notes:

• Figures reflect March 2025 unless stated otherwise. TZS/USD conversion uses TZS 2,677/USD (Page 30).
• Debt servicing estimates are based on typical rates (15.5% for domestic, concessional for external).
• Percentage change for debt limited to historical data (4.4% public debt increase, 2021/22-2022/23).
• Source: “Page” refers to April 2025 Monthly Economic Review; “Web” refers to search data; “Est.” indicates estimates.
• Domestic borrowing crowds out private investment; external debt funds infrastructure (e.g., TZS 14.81 trillion).