Tanzania's labor market is undergoing a transformation as the country strives to shift more of its workforce into formal employment. As of 2023, Tanzania's workforce stands at approximately 36 million people, with 28% in formal employment and 72% in informal employment. These shifts reveal opportunities for economic growth but also underscore significant challenges in formalizing informal sector employment.
Employment Landscape in Tanzania
The formal sector employs around 10.07 million individuals, with most in the private sector (9.33 million), while the public sector supports approximately 741,967 jobs. In contrast, the informal sector is vast, with around 25.95 million workers, mostly engaged in agriculture, retail, and small-scale manufacturing. This segment lacks job security and benefits, making it vulnerable to economic shifts.
Public and Private Sector Employment
In the public sector, the government allocated TZS 11.3 trillion for wages in the 2023/2024 fiscal year, supporting roles in civil service, healthcare, and education. The private sector's role is crucial, employing nearly 93% of all formal workers and contributing significantly to the national tax base. With an annual salary average of TZS 15.25 million per formal sector employee, private businesses are a vital economic force.
Informal Employment Breakdown
The informal sector is dominated by agriculture and fishing, which accounts for 65-70% of informal jobs. Retail trade employs 10-15%, followed by manufacturing, crafts, and construction. Regions like Dar es Salaam and Mwanza showcase significant informal employment, with informal rates as high as 72%, reflecting regional dependence on informal job sectors.
Key Economic Indicators and Projections
Unemployment Trends: Tanzania’s unemployment rate has shown gradual improvement, reducing from 9% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2023 and Projected to reach 8.1% in 2030, marking a positive trend in job creation.
Economic Forecast for 2024-2030: Formal employment is expected to increase from 28% to 38% by 2030, driven by growth in sectors such as manufacturing, services, and agriculture. By 2030, approximately 15.8 million individuals are projected to be in formal employment, reducing informal employment rates to 62%.
Projected Workforce and Sectoral Growth:
Manufacturing and Industry: 25% of the formal workforce
Services and Tourism: 22%
Modern Agriculture: 20%
Construction and Infrastructure: 15%
Technology and Digital Services: 10%
Challenges in Transitioning from Informal to Formal Employment
The shift from informal to formal employment involves obstacles, such as:
Regulatory Barriers: Complicated regulations deter informal businesses from formalizing.
Skills Gaps: Workers moving from informal to formal sectors often lack necessary skills, impacting productivity.
Expand Formal Sector Support: Simplify business registration and tax compliance processes to encourage informal businesses to transition.
Enhance Vocational Training: Align educational programs with formal sector needs to support skill development.
Improve Social Protection: Extend social security coverage to include more formal workers, offering a safety net for transitioning employees.
Sector-Specific Policies: Introduce targeted policies to modernize agriculture, foster innovation in urban sectors, and promote industry expansion.
Invest in Infrastructure: Focus on digital and physical infrastructure to improve business efficiency and facilitate formal sector growth.
Conclusion
Tanzania’s employment dynamics are at a turning point, with formal employment showing steady growth. With careful planning, investment in infrastructure, and strategic policy reforms, Tanzania can continue to transition towards a more stable and secure labor market that benefits both the economy and the workforce.
Deni la nje la Tanzania limeongezeka kwa kiwango kikubwa katika miaka ya hivi karibuni, likifikia TZS 78.8 trilioni (sawa na USD 32,675.10 milioni) mwezi Agosti 2024. Huu ni ongezeko kubwa ikilinganishwa na rekodi ya kiwango cha chini ya TZS 5.96 trilioni (sawa na USD 2,469.70 milioni) mnamo Desemba 2011, huku wastani ukiwa ni TZS 47 trilioni (sawa na USD 19,468.10 milioni) kwa kipindi cha 2011 hadi 2024. Kuongezeka kutoka TZS 77.2 trilioni (USD 31,993.90 milioni) mwezi Julai hadi TZS 78.8 trilioni (USD 32,675.10 milioni) mwezi Agosti 2024 kunadhihirisha utegemezi unaoendelea wa nchi kwenye ufadhili wa nje kwa miradi ya maendeleo na matumizi ya umma.
Vidokezo Muhimu:
Deni la Nje la Tanzania: TZS 78.8 trilioni (Agosti 2024).
Wastani (2011-2024): TZS 47 trilioni.
Rekodi ya Chini: TZS 5.96 trilioni (Desemba 2011).
Nafasi ya Tanzania Afrika Mashariki na Afrika Afrika Mashariki: Tanzania ni moja ya nchi zenye uchumi mkubwa Afrika Mashariki, ikiwa na deni la nje linaloonyesha uwekezaji mkubwa kwenye miundombinu, nishati, na viwanda. Ongezeko la deni ni kutokana na mahitaji ya ufadhili kwa miradi mikubwa kama bandari, reli, na vituo vya nishati. Miongoni mwa nchi za Afrika Mashariki, Tanzania ni mojawapo ya nchi zenye deni kubwa la nje, ingawa Kenya pia ina deni kubwa la KES 5.151 trilioni (karibu USD 34.5 bilioni) kufikia Juni 2024.
Kulinganisha na Nchi za Afrika Mashariki (Deni kwa USD):
Burundi: BIF 1,857.79 bilioni (~Thamani ya chini ikilinganishwa na Rwanda)
Afrika: Katika bara zima la Afrika, deni la nje la Tanzania ni chini ya nchi kama Afrika Kusini na Misri lakini ni kubwa kuliko nchi nyingi ndogo. Kwa mfano, Afrika Kusini ilikuwa na deni la nje la USD 163,852 milioni kufikia Juni 2024, huku Misri ikiwa na USD 160,607 milioni Machi 2024.
Orodha ya Nchi 10 Bora za Afrika Zenye Deni Kubwa la Nje (kulingana na data ya hivi karibuni):
Afrika Kusini: USD 163,852 milioni (Juni 2024)
Misri: USD 160,607 milioni (Machi 2024)
Nigeria: USD 42,120 milioni (Machi 2024)
Kenya: USD 34.5 bilioni (Juni 2024)
Tanzania: USD 32,675 milioni (Agosti 2024)
Ghana: USD 31,024 milioni (Juni 2024)
Angola: USD 50,260 milioni (Desemba 2023)
Zambia: USD 8,024 milioni (Desemba 2023)
Zimbabwe: USD 13,325 milioni (Desemba 2020)
Morocco: MAD 676,819 milioni (~USD 66.7 bilioni) (Desemba 2022)
Athari za Kiuchumi kwa Tanzania Ongezeko la deni la Tanzania ni ishara ya ajenda yake ya maendeleo yenye malengo makubwa, ambayo yanahitaji mtaji mkubwa. Ingawa ufadhili huu wa nje ni muhimu kwa maendeleo ya miundombinu na ukuaji wa uchumi, usimamizi wa viwango vya deni ni muhimu ili kuepuka gharama kubwa za kulipa deni ambazo zinaweza kupunguza nafasi ya kufadhili sekta nyingine za maendeleo.
Muhtasari wa Maeneo Muhimu ya Deni la Tanzania:
Ukuaji wa Deni la Nje la Tanzania
Ukuaji Mkubwa: Deni la nje la Tanzania limeongezeka kutoka USD 2.47 bilioni mnamo Desemba 2011 hadi USD 32.68 bilioni kufikia Agosti 2024.
Mwelekeo wa Hivi Karibuni: Deni limeongezeka kutoka USD 31.99 bilioni mnamo Julai 2024 hadi USD 32.68 bilioni mnamo Agosti 2024.
Wastani wa Deni: Kwa kipindi cha 2011 hadi 2024, wastani wa deni la Tanzania ilikuwa USD 19.47 bilioni.
Nafasi ya Tanzania Afrika Mashariki
Tanzania ni moja ya nchi kubwa kiuchumi Afrika Mashariki, na deni la nje la pili kwa ukubwa baada ya Kenya.
Kulinganisha na Nchi za Afrika Mashariki:
Kenya inaongoza kwa deni la nje la USD 34.5 bilioni mnamo Juni 2024.
Tanzania inafuatia na USD 32.68 bilioni mnamo Agosti 2024.
Rwanda (USD 6.26 bilioni mnamo Desemba 2022) na Burundi zina deni la chini sana.
Nafasi ya Tanzania Afrika
Tanzania inashikilia nafasi ya tano miongoni mwa nchi za Afrika zenye deni kubwa la nje, nyuma ya Ghana (USD 31.02 bilioni) na Zambia (USD 8.02 bilioni), lakini chini ya nchi kama Afrika Kusini na Misri.
Athari kwa Tanzania
Ajenda ya Maendeleo: Ongezeko kubwa la deni linaonyesha dhamira ya Tanzania ya kupanua miundombinu, nishati, na sekta ya viwanda.
Changamoto ya Usimamizi wa Deni: Uwekezaji huu wa deni unahitaji usimamizi thabiti ili kuhakikisha kuwa fedha zilizokopwa zinatumika kwa ufanisi.
Matumizi ya Fedha za Kukopa: Changamoto kuu kwa Tanzania ni kuhakikisha kuwa fedha hizi zinazalisha matokeo ya kiuchumi kama ongezeko la uwezo wa uzalishaji, mauzo ya nje, na ajira.
Mashindano ya Kanda: Ongezeko la deni la Tanzania linaakisi ushindani na nchi nyingine za Afrika Mashariki, hususan Kenya.
Hitimisho Deni la nje la Tanzania linaonyesha mipango yake ya maendeleo lakini ongezeko kubwa la deni linazua maswali kuhusu uhimilivu wa deni. Kama moja ya nchi zenye uchumi mkubwa Afrika Mashariki, Tanzania inafanya maendeleo makubwa katika miundombinu na viwanda lakini inapaswa kusimamia deni kwa umakini ili kudumisha utulivu wa kifedha wa muda mrefu.
Tanzania's external debt has grown significantly in recent years, reaching USD 32,675.10 million in August 2024. This is a major increase compared to its record low of USD 2,469.70 million in December 2011, and an average of USD 19,468.10 million over the period from 2011 to 2024. The month-on-month increase from USD 31,993.90 million in July to USD 32,675.10 million in August 2024 reflects the country's continued reliance on external financing for development projects and public expenditure.
East Africa: Tanzania is one of the largest economies in East Africa, with a growing external debt that reflects significant investments in infrastructure, energy, and industrialization. The rise in debt is partly due to the country’s need for financing large-scale projects like ports, railways, and energy plants. Among East African countries, Tanzania has one of the highest external debts, but Kenya's debt is also notable, with KES 5.151 trillion (approximately USD 34.5 billion) as of June 2024.
Comparison with East African Countries (Debt in USD):
Kenya: $51.51 billion USD (June 2024)
Tanzania: $32.68 billion USD (August 2024)
Rwanda: $6.26 billion USD (Dec 2022)
Burundi: BIF 1,857.79 billion (~USD equivalent lower than Rwanda)
Africa: On the broader African continent, Tanzania's external debt is lower than that of major economies like South Africa and Egypt but higher than many smaller economies. For instance, South Africa had an external debt of USD 163,852 million as of June 2024, while Egypt had USD 160,607 million in March 2024.
Top 10 African Countries with High External Debt (as per recent data)
Here is a list of the top African countries with high external debt (figures are based on the latest available data):
South Africa: USD 163,852 million (June 2024)
Egypt: USD 160,607 million (March 2024)
Nigeria: USD 42,120 million (March 2024)
Kenya: KES 5.151 trillion (~USD 34.5 billion) (June 2024)
Tanzania: USD 32,675 million (August 2024)
Ghana: USD 31,024 million (June 2024)
Angola: USD 50,260 million (December 2023)
Zambia: USD 8,024 million (December 2023)
Zimbabwe: USD 13,325 million (December 2020)
Morocco: MAD 676,819 million (~USD 66.7 billion) (December 2022)
Economic Implications for Tanzania
Tanzania’s growing debt is a reflection of its ambitious development agenda, which requires substantial capital. While this external financing is important for infrastructure development and economic growth, managing the debt levels will be crucial to avoid excessive debt servicing costs that could limit fiscal space for other development needs. Tanzania's current external debt positions it among the highly indebted nations in East Africa but is still lower than larger economies like South Africa and Egypt.
Tanzania’s debt management will likely involve focusing on maintaining sustainable debt levels while ensuring that borrowed funds are used productively to generate economic returns. As part of East Africa, Tanzania is competing with countries like Kenya in terms of infrastructure and economic development, which may drive further borrowing for development projects.
Tanzania's external debt highlights key insights about the country’s economic development, debt reliance, and its position within East Africa and the broader African continent:
1. Tanzania’s External Debt Growth
Significant Growth: Tanzania's external debt has grown from USD 2.47 billion in December 2011 to USD 32.68 billion by August 2024. This nearly 13-fold increase reflects Tanzania's heavy reliance on external financing to fund large-scale infrastructure and industrialization projects.
Recent Trend: The debt rose from USD 31.99 billion in July 2024 to USD 32.68 billion in August 2024, indicating a rapid, ongoing reliance on external borrowing.
Debt Average: Over the period from 2011 to 2024, Tanzania’s average debt was USD 19.47 billion, showing that recent years have seen particularly sharp increases in borrowing.
2. Tanzania’s Position in East Africa
Tanzania is one of the largest economies in East Africa, second only to Kenya in terms of external debt.
Comparison with Other East African Countries:
Kenya leads with an external debt of USD 34.5 billion in June 2024.
Tanzania follows with USD 32.68 billion in August 2024.
Other countries like Rwanda (USD 6.26 billion in December 2022) and Burundi have significantly lower external debt.
Uganda’s external debt, though not provided in the data, is typically lower than Tanzania’s.
This shows that Tanzania and Kenya, as the region's largest economies, are heavily investing in large-scale projects that require significant external financing. Both countries are competing in terms of infrastructure development and economic growth.
3. Tanzania’s Position in Africa
Mid-level Debt: In the context of Africa, Tanzania has moderate external debt compared to larger economies like South Africa (USD 163.85 billion) and Egypt (USD 160.61 billion). However, it has higher debt than many smaller African countries.
Top 10 Ranking: Tanzania ranks 5th among African nations with the highest external debt, ahead of countries like Ghana (USD 31.02 billion) and Zambia (USD 8.02 billion), but well below the continent’s giants such as South Africa and Egypt.
4. Implications for Tanzania
Ambitious Development Agenda: The sharp rise in debt reflects Tanzania’s commitment to expanding its infrastructure, energy, and industrial base. This external borrowing is crucial for financing large-scale projects like the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), ports, and energy projects.
Debt Sustainability Concerns: While external debt has fueled development, managing the rising debt levels is critical. High external debt can lead to increased debt servicing costs, which could limit the government’s ability to fund other important sectors like health and education. If not managed carefully, this could lead to long-term fiscal imbalances.
Productive Use of Borrowed Funds: The key challenge for Tanzania will be to ensure that the funds borrowed are used effectively to generate economic returns, such as increased production capacity, exports, and jobs. This would help ensure that debt remains sustainable and does not lead to a debt crisis.
Regional Competition: Tanzania’s increasing external debt mirrors the competition with other East African countries, particularly Kenya, which is also borrowing heavily for development. Both nations are positioning themselves as economic hubs in the region, but the race for infrastructure and economic development could lead to further borrowing.
Conclusion
Tanzania’s external debt reflects its ambitious development plans, but the significant increase in borrowing raises concerns about debt sustainability. As one of the largest economies in East Africa, Tanzania is making important strides in infrastructure and industrialization but must balance borrowing with the productive use of funds to ensure long-term fiscal stability. Compared to other African nations, Tanzania’s debt is significant but still more manageable than the continent’s largest economies like South Africa and Egypt. However, careful debt management will be crucial as the country continues its development journey.
To promote sustainable economic growth, Tanzania is increasingly leveraging Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) to improve financial efficiency and boost investment in key sectors. Over the 2021/22 to 2024/25 fiscal years, Tanzania allocated a total of 54.575 trillion TZS to its development budget, with 33.794 trillion TZS sourced domestically. By implementing PPPs under an 80-20 cost-sharing model, the government aims to reduce its financial burden, enhance service delivery, create jobs, and increase revenue through private sector collaboration. This article explores the impact and strategic approach of PPPs in Tanzania’s economic development.
1. Development Budget Allocation and Funding Trends
Across four fiscal years, Tanzania’s development budget reveals a structured approach to funding large-scale infrastructure, energy, social services, and economic development projects. The allocation data highlights the prioritization of domestic financing over external funds, underscoring a commitment to fiscal responsibility and self-reliance.
Fiscal Year
Total Development Budget (TZS Trillions)
Domestic Funding (TZS Trillions)
External Funding (TZS Trillions)
2021/22
13.33
10.37
2.96
2022/23
15.00
12.31
2.70
2023/24
11.49
N/A
N/A
2024/25
14.755
11.114
3.640
Total
54.575
33.794
9.3
This budget structure, with over 60% sourced domestically, signals Tanzania’s shift towards utilizing internal revenue for growth, allowing foreign financing to focus on specific, large-scale projects.
2. Key Recurring Projects and Economic Impact
Tanzania’s development agenda targets large-scale projects in infrastructure, energy, social services, and economic development to achieve comprehensive growth.
Infrastructure Projects: Major projects, such as the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and the Kigongo-Busisi Bridge, will enhance connectivity within East Africa and reduce trade costs. With a total expected investment of 5 trillion TZS in infrastructure, these projects will elevate Tanzania as a regional logistics hub.
Energy Projects: The Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (2,115 MW) and rural electrification initiatives will improve energy security and support industrial growth, contributing over 1 trillion TZS annually to the economy.
Social Services: Education and healthcare investments, including infrastructure expansion and student loans, aim to improve Tanzanian human capital, essential for economic resilience.
Economic Development: Investments in agriculture, industrial development, and Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are expected to create jobs and attract foreign investment, boosting economic diversification.
3. Financing Strategies for Development
To finance these ambitious projects, Tanzania adopts a diversified approach, with the following methods:
Domestic Revenue: Emphasis on internal revenue collection to fund projects, which minimizes reliance on external debt.
Concessional Loans and Grants: Collaborations with international donors and development banks support specific projects.
Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): By mobilizing private sector investment in critical sectors, PPPs significantly reduce the government’s financial burden and improve efficiency.
4. Economic Benefits of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)
PPPs offer a unique model for maximizing resource utilization while minimizing financial risks to the government. The 80-20 cost-sharing model illustrates substantial economic benefits:
a) Cost Savings
Through PPPs, project costs are shared, reducing government expenditure. For instance:
On a 500 billion TZS infrastructure project, the government only contributes 100 billion TZS, with the private sector covering 400 billion TZS.
This model also introduces efficiencies that can lower project costs by 20%, saving an additional 20 billion TZS.
b) Increased Investment and Economic Output
By leveraging PPPs, Tanzania’s 54.575 trillion TZS development budget could attract an estimated 43.66 trillion TZS from the private sector, enabling increased investments in other critical areas.
c) Risk Mitigation
With an 80% private sector contribution, the government’s risk exposure is substantially reduced. For example, in a 200 billion TZS project, a cost overrun of 30 billion TZS would mean the government only covers 6 billion TZS, transferring the remaining 24 billion TZS risk to private investors.
d) Enhanced Revenue Sharing
Infrastructure projects like the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project can enhance revenue through efficient PPP implementation. With a 2,115 MW capacity, an estimated revenue of 10 million TZS per MW annually could see a 15% efficiency increase under PPPs, yielding an additional 31.725 billion TZS in revenue.
e) Job Creation and Economic Stimulation
PPPs can create approximately 10,000 jobs, injecting 10 billion TZS into the economy annually. This job creation benefits local economies and provides citizens with employment opportunities, improving livelihoods and increasing domestic consumption.
f) Long-term Economic Growth
By facilitating infrastructure development, PPPs can increase trade efficiency by 5%, which translates to a 1 trillion TZS boost in annual economic output. This growth benefits both the government and private sector through improved services and a broader tax base.
5. Strategic Advantages of PPPs for Tanzania’s Development Goals
Reduced Capital Outlay: The government’s 20% contribution allows for optimal allocation of public funds, supporting other essential services.
Enhanced Service Delivery: PPPs bring private sector expertise, accelerating project timelines and improving quality.
Long-term Sustainability: By integrating private sector investment, Tanzania ensures the longevity and adaptability of its infrastructure and energy assets.
Competitive Regional Positioning: Improved infrastructure and energy resources strengthen Tanzania’s position as a leading trade and logistics hub in East Africa.
The strategic implementation of Public-Private Partnerships in Tanzania is driving sustainable economic growth, enhancing service delivery, and creating employment opportunities. By balancing risk, leveraging private investment, and focusing on key sectors, Tanzania is building a resilient economy that benefits both the public and private sectors. Through continued collaboration, PPPs will play a crucial role in realizing Tanzania’s long-term development goals.
Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali ya Tanzania kwa Pato la Taifa ulikuwa asilimia 38.3% mwaka 2022, ukipanda hadi asilimia 53.4% kufikia katikati ya mwaka 2023, huku deni la taifa likifikia Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 42.68, kutoka Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 38.27 mnamo Juni 2022. Pato la Taifa (GDP) la Tanzania lilifikia kiwango cha juu kabisa cha Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 79.16 mwaka 2023, likionyesha ukuaji mzuri wa uchumi na wastani wa ukuaji wa asilimia 5.5% kwa mwaka. Hata hivyo, deni linaongezeka kwa kasi zaidi kwa asilimia 6% kwa mwaka, jambo ambalo linaashiria ongezeko la wastani la uwiano wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa, unaotarajiwa kufikia asilimia 54.7% ifikapo mwaka 2030. Ukuaji wa deni la Tanzania unaonyesha uwekezaji unaoendelea kwenye miundombinu lakini unahitaji usimamizi wa deni kwa umakini ili kudumisha utulivu wa kifedha.
1. Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali kwa Pato la Taifa:
2022: Deni la serikali ya Tanzania lilikuwa asilimia 38.30% ya Pato la Taifa. Uwiano huu unaonyesha ukubwa wa deni la serikali ukilinganishwa na uzalishaji wa uchumi wa nchi.
Mwelekeo wa Kihistoria:
Kati ya mwaka 2001 na 2022, wastani wa Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali kwa Pato la Taifa ulikuwa asilimia 35.26%.
Uwiano wa juu zaidi ulirekodiwa mwaka 2001 kwa asilimia 50.20%, wakati nchi ilikuwa ikifanya marekebisho ya kimuundo na kukabiliana na mzigo mkubwa wa deni.
Uwiano wa chini zaidi ulikuwa mwaka 2008, kwa asilimia 21.50%, kufuatia mipango ya kupunguza deni kama vile mpango wa Nchi Masikini Zinazodaiwa Sana (HIPC), ambao ulisababisha kupungua kwa deni la Tanzania.
2. Mwelekeo wa Pato la Taifa (GDP):
Kwa kipindi cha miaka 1960 hadi 2023, Pato la Taifa la Tanzania limekua kwa kiasi kikubwa. Wastani ulikuwa Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 19.48.
Thamani ya juu zaidi ya GDP ilifikiwa mwaka 2023, ikiwa ni Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 79.16, ikionyesha ukuaji wa kudumu wa uchumi kwa miaka mingi.
Mwaka 1960, GDP ya Tanzania ilikuwa ndogo sana, kwa Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 2.65, ikionyesha ukubwa wa uchumi muda mfupi baada ya kupata uhuru.
3. Hali ya Deni la Taifa kufikia Juni 2023:
Kufikia mwisho wa Juni 2023, deni la taifa la Tanzania, ambalo linajumuisha deni la umma la ndani na nje pamoja na deni la sekta binafsi ya nje, lilikuwa Dola za Kimarekani milioni 42,681.
Kiwango hiki cha deni kilikuwa ni asilimia 53.4% ya Pato la Taifa. Ongezeko hili linaonyesha kukopa kwa ajili ya miradi ya maendeleo, pamoja na kuongezeka kwa mahitaji ya mikopo kutoka kwa sekta binafsi.
Takwimu za Juni 2022 zinaonyesha deni la taifa lilikuwa Dola za Kimarekani milioni 38,265.63, ikionyesha ongezeko kubwa la deni kwa mwaka mmoja, ongezeko la takriban asilimia 11.5% katika hali ya kawaida.
Utabiri wa Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali ya Tanzania kwa Pato la Taifa hadi mwaka 2030
Kiwango cha ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa: asilimia 5.5% kwa mwaka (wastani wa ukuaji wa hivi karibuni).
Kiwango cha ukuaji wa deni: asilimia 6% kwa mwaka (ikizingatiwa uwekezaji wa umma unaoendelea na maendeleo ya miundombinu).
Jedwari la Utabiri wa Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali ya Tanzania kwa Pato la Taifa hadi mwaka 2030
Mwaka
Utabiri wa GDP (USD Bilioni)
Utabiri wa Deni la Serikali (USD Bilioni)
Uwiano wa Deni kwa Pato la Taifa (%)
2024
83.52
44.44
53.2
2025
88.14
47.11
53.4
2026
92.97
49.94
53.7
2027
98.09
52.93
53.9
2028
103.52
56.11
54.2
2029
109.28
59.48
54.4
2030
115.37
63.05
54.7
Dhana:
Kiwango cha ukuaji wa GDP: asilimia 5.5% kwa mwaka, kikionyesha mwelekeo wa ukuaji wa hivi karibuni wa uchumi wa Tanzania.
Kiwango cha ukuaji wa deni: asilimia 6% kwa mwaka, kikionyesha kuendelea kwa ukopaji kwa ajili ya miundombinu, maendeleo, na programu zingine za kitaifa.
Uwiano wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa: unatarajiwa kuongezeka kidogo kutokana na ukuaji wa deni kuzidi ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa.
Hali ya Uchumi wa Tanzania na Sera ya Fedha:
Mwelekeo wa Deni la Serikali:
Uwiano wa Deni la Serikali kwa Pato la Taifa umekuwa ukibadilika kwa muda, ikiwa na kiwango cha juu mwaka 2001 (50.20%) na kiwango cha chini mwaka 2008 (21.50%) kutokana na mipango ya msamaha wa deni kama vile HIPC.
Uwiano wa sasa wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa, asilimia 38.30% mwaka 2022, ni wa wastani ukilinganisha na viwango vya kihistoria. Hata hivyo, ongezeko la uwiano huu hadi asilimia 53.4% mwaka 2023 linaonyesha mzigo wa deni unaoongezeka kutokana na kuongezeka kwa mikopo kwa ajili ya miradi ya maendeleo na uwekezaji wa miundombinu.
Utabiri unaonyesha uwiano wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa utaendelea kuongezeka hadi mwaka 2030, kufikia asilimia 54.7%.
Ukuaji wa Uchumi:
Uchumi wa Tanzania umekuwa ukikua kwa kasi, na GDP kufikia kiwango cha juu cha Dola za Kimarekani bilioni 79.16 mwaka 2023.
Ukuaji wa wastani wa asilimia 5.5% kwa mwaka unatarajiwa kuendelea, ikionyesha mwenendo mzuri wa uchumi wa Tanzania.
Ukuaji wa Deni kuzidi Ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa:
Wakati GDP inaendelea kukua, deni la serikali linakua kwa kasi zaidi (asilimia 6% ikilinganishwa na ukuaji wa asilimia 5.5% wa GDP). Hii inaashiria kuwa Tanzania inakopa kwa kasi zaidi kuliko inavyokua kiuchumi.
Uendelevu wa Deni na Hatari:
Ongezeko la uwiano wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa linaonyesha umuhimu wa kudhibiti deni ili kuhakikisha kuwa linaendelea kuwa la kudumu. Wakati uwiano wa deni wa takribani asilimia 54-55% unafikiriwa kuwa wa kudhibitiwa, ni muhimu kuzingatia sera za kifedha kwa umakini.
Hatari za nje kama vile hali ya uchumi wa dunia, viwango vya riba, na mabadiliko ya sarafu yanaweza kuongeza mzigo wa deni. Kwa mfano, ikiwa deni la nje la Tanzania litaongezeka na deni hilo liko katika sarafu za kigeni, kushuka kwa thamani ya shilingi ya Tanzania kunaweza kufanya ulipaji wa deni kuwa ghali zaidi.
Madhara kwa Sera za Serikali:
Usimamizi wa deni utakuwa wa muhimu kwa Tanzania kudumisha utulivu wa kifedha. Serikali inapaswa kusawazisha mikopo na uwezo wake wa kuzalisha mapato, kuepuka viwango vya juu vya deni ambavyo vinaweza kuzuia ukuaji wa uchumi.
Uwekezaji unaoendelea katika miundombinu na maendeleo ni muhimu ili kusaidia ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa, lakini mipango ya makini inahitajika ili kuhakikisha kuwa fedha za mikopo zinatumiwa kwa ufanisi na miradi inazalisha mapato ambayo yanaongeza tija.
Tanzania pia inapaswa kuzingatia kuanika uchumi wake ili kupunguza utegemezi wa mambo ya nje na kuongeza uwezo wake wa kustahimili mshtuko wa kiuchumi.
Hitimisho:
Ukuaji wa deni la Tanzania na ukuaji wa Pato la Taifa unaonyesha fursa pamoja na changamoto. Ingawa nchi inawekeza katika mustakabali wake, kusimamia kasi ya mikopo na kuhakikisha ukuaji wa uchumi endelevu itakuwa muhimu kwa kudumisha utulivu wa muda mrefu wa kifedha. Ikiwa usimamizi wa deni utafanywa vizuri, ongezeko la uwiano wa deni kwa Pato la Taifa linaweza kusaidia maendeleo. Lakini ikiwa deni litashindwa kudhibitiwa au kutatizwa na mishtuko ya nje, linaweza kuleta matatizo kwa utulivu wa kifedha.
Addressed Infrastructure, Regulatory Efficiency, and Public Service Challenges
The Business Ready 2024 report provides an assessment of Tanzania's business environment based on three key pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency
Regulatory Framework: Tanzania scored 65.00 points, placing it in the third quintile, meaning its regulatory environment is moderately favorable. This includes regulations that govern business entry, labor, taxation, and financial services, though there is room for improvement in areas like market competition and insolvency.
What it Means: The Regulatory Framework pillar focuses on the laws, rules, and regulations that businesses must follow in Tanzania. A score of 65.00 indicates that while the regulatory environment is moderately favorable, it still has areas that need improvement.
Strengths: Tanzania has made progress in areas like business entry, taxation, and labor regulations. These areas provide businesses with a stable set of rules for operation.
Areas for Improvement: The score suggests that Tanzania could enhance regulations governing market competition and business insolvency, where businesses might face difficulties related to anticompetitive behavior or delays in resolving insolvency matters.
What is Measured: This pillar assesses the rules, laws, and regulations that businesses must follow as they enter, operate, and exit the market. It focuses on whether these regulations are clear, fair, and supportive of entrepreneurial activity.
Key Areas Measured:
Business Entry: The ease with which businesses can register and start operating.
Indicator: Time, cost, and complexity involved in starting a business.
Labor: The flexibility and protections offered by labor laws, including hiring, firing, and worker protections.
Indicator: Availability of paid leave, overtime regulations, and worker dismissal processes.
Indicator: Laws governing credit access, ease of securing loans, and the stability of financial services.
International Trade: The regulatory environment that affects import/export activities and cross-border transactions.
Indicator: Time and costs involved in clearing customs, and regulations around cross-border electronic payments and contracts.
Taxation: The rules governing business tax obligations.
Indicator: Clarity of tax laws, time to file, and availability of tax services.
What It Tells About Tanzania:
Score: 65.00 points
Tanzania performs moderately well here, showing that the country has a decent legal framework to regulate business activities, but there is room for improvement in areas like market competition and business insolvency.
Example: While it’s fairly easy to start a business in Tanzania, there may still be inefficiencies in accessing financial services or dealing with labor regulations that slow down business growth.
Public Services: Tanzania's score for public services is 51.56 points, placing it in the fourth quintile. This reflects challenges in public service provision that support businesses, including utility services and government institutions related to business regulation.
What it Means: This pillar evaluates the quality of government-provided services that help businesses comply with regulations, such as utility services (electricity, water), online tax services, and other government support structures.
Challenges: Tanzania’s low score in this area reflects inefficiencies or gaps in public services. For example, businesses may struggle with frequent power outages or delays in obtaining permits, which can slow down operations.
Examples: The time to obtain a construction permit could be long, and delays in utility services (like electricity) could further hinder business activities. In some economies, businesses face multiple power outages each month, and this might be contributing to Tanzania's lower score in public services.
What is Measured: This pillar looks at the quality of public services provided by the government that are necessary for businesses to function, including utility services, government transparency, and the infrastructure that supports business compliance with regulations.
Key Areas Measured:
Utility Services: Access to essential services such as electricity, water, and internet.
Indicator: Frequency and duration of power outages, reliability of water services, and internet availability.
Taxation: Availability and accessibility of online tax services for businesses.
Indicator: Whether businesses can file taxes electronically, access support via online tools, and comply with tax obligations efficiently.
International Trade: Efficiency of customs and border management systems.
Indicator: Whether coordinated border management systems are in place and how easily businesses can trade across borders.
Financial Services: Availability of credit registries and bureaus that collect business-related data.
Indicator: How well businesses can access credit and how transparently financial data is managed.
What It Tells About Tanzania:
Score: 51.56 points
Tanzania faces challenges in the quality of its public services, particularly in providing reliable utility services and modernized government support.
Example: Frequent power outages or delays in obtaining construction permits could hinder businesses, while limited online tax services might add to compliance costs.
Utility Services: Businesses in Tanzania likely deal with infrastructure challenges, such as power reliability, which impacts operational efficiency.
Operational Efficiency: Tanzania performed better in operational efficiency with a score of 62.15 points, placing it in the third quintile. This category measures how efficiently businesses can comply with regulations and access public services.
What it Means: The Operational Efficiency pillar measures how easy it is for businesses to comply with regulations and access services. Tanzania’s score in this pillar suggests that businesses face some challenges but generally have moderate success in navigating the regulatory landscape and accessing the services they need.
Strengths: Tanzania’s operational efficiency score is stronger than its public services score. This suggests that, while services may be lacking, businesses are still able to function reasonably well. Examples of operational challenges might include delays in filing and paying taxes or resolving commercial disputes, which could affect day-to-day business activities.
Areas for Improvement: The time to settle a commercial dispute in Tanzania could be a challenge. In some economies, resolving disputes can take up to five years, while top-performing economies resolve them in a fraction of the time. Tanzania likely faces inefficiencies in this regard, impacting overall business operations.
What is Measured: This pillar evaluates how easy it is for businesses to comply with the regulatory framework and access public services. It measures the practical implementation of the rules and services described under the first two pillars.
Key Areas Measured:
Business Entry: Time and effort required to navigate business registration processes.
Indicator: The time, number of procedures, and costs involved in registering a business.
Dispute Resolution: Efficiency of the legal system in resolving commercial disputes.
Indicator: Time and cost to resolve business-related disputes in court.
Labor: How easily businesses can comply with labor regulations, including wage reporting and health and safety compliance.
Indicator: Time to process payroll and ensure compliance with labor laws.
Financial Services: Ease with which businesses can secure loans and financial products.
Indicator: Time to secure a loan or access other financial services.
International Trade: Time and cost to comply with trade regulations, including import/export processes.
Indicator: Time and number of documents needed to import/export goods.
What It Tells About Tanzania:
Score: 62.15 points
Tanzania’s operational efficiency score indicates that while businesses face some challenges, they are still able to operate within the regulatory framework.
Example: The time required to resolve commercial disputes may be longer than average, but businesses can generally navigate labor laws and financial services without excessive delays. The average number of power outages might also be an issue, but businesses find ways to work around these challenges.
Tanzania's scores in the Business Ready 2024 report provide valuable insights into the country's economic development by highlighting strengths and challenges in its business environment. Here's a breakdown of what these figures reveal about Tanzania's economic development:
1. Regulatory Framework (Score: 65.00)
Moderately Supportive Regulations: With a score of 65.00, Tanzania has a moderately favorable regulatory environment for businesses. This indicates that the country has established a basic legal framework for business operations, but there are still obstacles that prevent optimal economic performance.
Impact on Economic Development: The regulatory framework is crucial for promoting investment and entrepreneurship. Tanzania’s score shows that businesses can operate under fairly stable regulations, but inefficiencies, especially in market competition and insolvency laws, could slow business expansion and investment.
Challenges: The legal infrastructure needs to improve to make the economy more competitive and resilient, particularly in handling market disputes and allowing businesses to recover from financial distress. A stronger regulatory environment could lead to increased investor confidence, which is key to fostering long-term economic growth.
2. Public Services (Score: 51.56)
Weak Infrastructure and Public Services: Tanzania’s score of 51.56 in the Public Services pillar reflects significant challenges, particularly in the quality and reliability of government services and infrastructure like electricity, water, and internet.
Impact on Economic Development: Weak public services hinder business productivity. Frequent power outages, delays in obtaining construction permits, and limited access to digital public services all contribute to higher operational costs for businesses, which, in turn, reduces overall economic efficiency and growth.
Challenges: Tanzania’s economic development is constrained by the inefficiency of its public services, which affects business sustainability and the ease of doing business. Improving public service delivery, especially infrastructure and digital services, is essential for boosting productivity and attracting both domestic and foreign investment.
Potential for Growth: Investments in infrastructure, especially utilities, could unlock greater productivity in sectors like manufacturing and agriculture, leading to job creation and improved economic growth.
3. Operational Efficiency (Score: 62.15)
Moderate Operational Effectiveness: A score of 62.15 suggests that while businesses in Tanzania can function within the regulatory framework, they face delays and inefficiencies, such as resolving commercial disputes and securing public services like permits.
Impact on Economic Development: Delays in resolving disputes and inefficiencies in business procedures directly affect the cost of doing business. While Tanzania has made some progress in enabling business operations, the remaining inefficiencies reduce business competitiveness and slow down economic expansion.
Challenges: The slow pace of dispute resolution and challenges in accessing public services mean businesses spend more time and resources complying with regulations, which could otherwise be used to expand their operations or innovate. For Tanzania's economy to grow faster, it needs to improve judicial efficiency, simplify regulatory processes, and make it easier for businesses to access financing and other services.
Potential for Growth: Enhanced operational efficiency would attract more businesses and investors, facilitating economic diversification and boosting sectors like trade, technology, and financial services.
Overall Economic Development Insights:
Moderate Progress but Room for Improvement: Tanzania’s scores show that while there has been progress in developing a business-friendly environment, significant challenges remain. Improvements in public services and operational efficiency are crucial to creating an environment where businesses can thrive, which would in turn drive economic growth.
Infrastructure and Service Delivery are Key Bottlenecks: Weaknesses in public services, particularly infrastructure like electricity and water, are limiting business productivity and deterring investment. Addressing these challenges would have a substantial positive impact on economic development, particularly in industrial and agricultural sectors, which rely heavily on reliable infrastructure.
Regulatory and Judicial Reforms: The regulatory framework provides a foundation for economic growth, but further reforms are needed, particularly in market competition and insolvency laws. Accelerating dispute resolution and making regulations clearer and more predictable will foster a more dynamic and competitive private sector, driving economic expansion.
Strategic Recommendations for Economic Development:
Invest in Infrastructure: Improving utility services, especially reliable electricity and internet access, will lower operational costs and improve productivity across sectors, boosting overall economic growth.
Strengthen the Legal and Regulatory Environment: Enhancing regulations related to market competition, insolvency, and business disputes will create a more favorable environment for entrepreneurship and innovation, encouraging more domestic and foreign investment.
Improve Public Service Delivery: Streamlining processes such as tax filing, permit issuance, and customs procedures through digitalization would significantly reduce the cost of doing business and improve Tanzania’s global competitiveness.
As of the period ending on December 31, 2023, both NMB Bank and CRDB Bank have exhibited notable financial performance, reflecting various key metrics that are indicative of their operational strength and market presence.
NMB Bank reported total assets amounting to 12.2 trillion Tanzania Shillings, representing a remarkable 19% growth. This increase underscores the bank's ability to expand its asset base, possibly through effective investment strategies or successful acquisition initiatives. On the other hand, CRDB Bank demonstrated a total asset growth of 14%, reaching 13.2 trillion Tanzania Shillings. Although slightly lower than NMB Bank's growth rate, this still signifies a substantial increase in the bank's overall financial standing.
In terms of total deposits, NMB Bank recorded 8.4 trillion Tanzania Shillings, marking an 11% growth. This suggests a consistent influx of funds into the bank, likely driven by customer trust and effective deposit mobilization efforts. CRDB Bank, while also experiencing growth, posted a total deposit figure of 8.9 trillion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting an 8% increase. This showcases the bank's ability to attract and retain deposits, albeit at a slightly lower growth rate compared to NMB Bank.
Loan and advances, a critical aspect of banking operations, showed significant growth for both institutions. NMB Bank reported a loan and advances portfolio of 7.7 trillion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a substantial 28% increase. This growth may indicate the bank's proactive approach in extending credit facilities to businesses and individuals. Similarly, CRDB Bank exhibited a robust performance in this area with a loan and advances portfolio of 8.5 trillion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a commendable 23% growth.
Moving on to profitability, NMB Bank demonstrated strong financial results. The bank reported a profit before tax of 775 billion Tanzania Shillings, indicating a notable 26% increase. Additionally, the profit after tax for NMB Bank amounted to 542 billion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a similar 26% growth. These figures underscore the bank's ability to generate profits efficiently, possibly through effective cost management and revenue generation strategies.
CRDB Bank, while also delivering positive financial results, exhibited a profit before tax of 599 billion Tanzania Shillings, showing a 20% increase. The profit after tax for CRDB Bank stood at 424 billion Tanzania Shillings, reflecting a 21% growth. These figures indicate the bank's capacity to maintain solid profitability, although at a slightly lower growth rate compared to NMB Bank.
Hence, both NMB Bank and CRDB Bank demonstrated commendable financial performance for the period ended December 31, 2023, with NMB Bank showcasing higher growth rates in key areas such as total assets, total deposits, loan and advances, as well as profitability. These financial indicators provide valuable insights into the operational efficiency and market competitiveness of the two banks during the specified period.
The health and competitiveness of these banks in the Tanzania financial sector:
The financial data reveals that both NMB Bank and CRDB Bank are robust financial institutions, with NMB Bank showcasing higher growth rates in key areas. Investors, regulators, and other stakeholders may use this information to assess the banks' financial health, operational strategies, and overall market competitiveness.
Asset Growth and Stability:
NMB Bank has shown a higher growth rate in total assets (19%) compared to CRDB Bank (14%). This suggests that NMB Bank has been successful in expanding its asset base, possibly through strategic investments or acquisitions, making it a key player in the market.
Deposit Mobilization:
Both banks experienced growth in total deposits, indicating the ability to attract and retain customer funds. NMB Bank's 11% growth in deposits may suggest effective deposit mobilization efforts, while CRDB Bank, with an 8% growth, also demonstrated strength in this area but at a slightly lower rate.
Lending Activities:
Both banks exhibited substantial growth in loan and advances portfolios, suggesting active participation in lending to businesses and individuals. NMB Bank's 28% growth and CRDB Bank's 23% growth in this category indicate a willingness to extend credit and support economic activities.
Profitability:
NMB Bank reported higher growth rates in both profit before tax (26%) and profit after tax (26%) compared to CRDB Bank, which reported a 20% growth in profit before tax and a 21% growth in profit after tax. This signifies that NMB Bank was more efficient in managing costs or generating revenues during the specified period.
Overall Competitiveness:
The data suggests that NMB Bank had a relatively stronger financial performance during this period, with higher growth rates in key metrics. However, CRDB Bank also demonstrated positive growth across various parameters, indicating its stability and competitiveness in the market.
Market Positioning:
NMB Bank's higher growth rates across multiple financial indicators might position it as a more dynamic and rapidly growing institution. CRDB Bank, while still showing positive growth, might be perceived as slightly more conservative or stable in its approach.
The forecasting performance in the coming year (2024) requires consideration of various factors, including economic conditions, regulatory changes, and the banks' strategic initiatives.
