Global growth prospects in 2024 show diverse regional dynamics. South Asia is the fastest-growing region, with projected growth of 6.2%, driven by India’s 6.6% expansion. East Asia and Pacific (EAP) growth is expected at 4.8%, led by China, though slowing due to structural issues. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will see a modest improvement to 3.5%, while Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions forecast 3.0% and 2.8% growth, respectively. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) will have the slowest growth at 1.8%, constrained by fiscal challenges and weak investment.

1. East Asia and Pacific (EAP)

• Growth in 2024: Projected at 4.8%, slightly down from 5.1% in 2023.
• Key Driver: China accounts for the majority of the region's growth but is slowing to 4.8% in 2024, from 5.2% in 2023, due to property sector weakness and structural slowdowns​.
• Excluding China: The rest of the region, including countries like Indonesia, will grow at around 5.0%, buoyed by strong domestic demand and investment​.

2. Europe and Central Asia (ECA)

• Growth in 2024: Forecast at 3.0%, slightly slower than 3.2% in 2023.
• Russia: The recovery is fragile, with 2.9% growth expected in 2024 after a 3.6% rebound in 2023, influenced by high inflation and sanctions​.
• Türkiye: Growth is forecast at 3.0% in 2024, down from 4.5% in 2023​(GEP-June-2024).
• The region faces challenges such as geopolitical tensions, inflation, and energy dependence​.

3. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

• Growth in 2024: Forecast at 1.8%, down from 2.2% in 2023.
• Key Drivers:
  • Brazil: Projected to grow by 2.0% in 2024, slower than 2.9% in 2023, constrained by high interest rates and fiscal concerns​.
  • Mexico: Expected to grow at 2.3% in 2024, compared to 3.2% in 2023, due to weak investment​.
• Structural challenges and external demand, particularly from China and the U.S., are limiting the region's growth.

4. Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

• Growth in 2024: Forecast at 2.8%, an improvement from 1.5% in 2023.
• Key Drivers:
  • Saudi Arabia: Set to grow at 2.5% in 2024, after a contraction of -0.9% in 2023, driven by oil production adjustments and diversification efforts​.
  • Egypt: Growth is projected at 2.8% in 2024, down from 3.8% in 2023, amid fiscal challenges​.
• The region’s growth is influenced by fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical risks.

5. South Asia

• Growth in 2024: Forecast at 6.2%, making it the fastest-growing region globally.
• Key Driver: India, which is expected to grow at 6.6% in 2024, driven by strong domestic demand, investment, and a robust services sector​.
• Bangladesh is forecast to grow at 5.6% in 2024, with challenges such as inflation affecting growth​.
• South Asia's growth outlook is buoyed by internal demand but faces risks from external pressures such as higher global interest rates and energy prices.

6. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

• Growth in 2024: Projected at 3.5%, an improvement from 3.0% in 2023.
• Key Drivers:
  • Nigeria: Expected to grow by 3.3% in 2024, supported by higher oil production and economic reforms​.
  • South Africa: Growth is projected at 1.2% in 2024, constrained by energy supply issues and weak domestic demand​.
• Commodity exporters are benefiting from stabilizing prices, but fiscal constraints and debt remain significant challenges for many countries in the region.

7. Low-Income Countries (LICs)

• Growth in 2024: Forecast at 5.0%, up from 3.8% in 2023, reflecting recovery in commodity-exporting economies​.
• These countries are still grappling with challenges such as debt stress, conflict, and food insecurity, leading to uneven recovery​.

Summary of Regional Outlooks:

• Fastest Growing Region: South Asia, driven by India with 6.6% growth.
• Slowest Growing Region: Latin America and the Caribbean, at 1.8% in 2024, largely due to fiscal and structural challenges.
• Middle East and North Africa shows recovery with 2.8% growth, while Sub-Saharan Africa improves to 3.5%​.

Source: The Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report