The Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Manifesto for the 2025 General Election, launched on May 30, 2025, aims to transform Tanzania’s economy by 2030 through ambitious targets like creating 350,000 jobs in Zanzibar, constructing a 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway, and boosting per capita income. Building on past successes, such as a 44% increase in irrigated farmland (681,383 to 983,466 hectares) from 2020–2024 and 304 investment projects worth USD 3.74 billion in Zanzibar from 2015–2020, the manifesto leverages Tanzania’s 5.3% GDP growth in 2023 and projected 6% in 2025. However, with public debt at 41.1% of GDP in 2024 and ambiguous targets like 300,000 units for the blue economy, its realism hinges on addressing funding gaps and structural challenges to achieve inclusive growth.

1. Overview of the CCM Manifesto 2025–2030

The CCM Manifesto, launched on May 30, 2025, outlines nine strategic priorities, including economic transformation, job creation, infrastructure development, and inclusive growth. Key economic targets include:

• Creating 350,000 new jobs in Zanzibar by 2030.
• Increasing per capita income in Zanzibar (in USD, not quantified) and enhancing trade and industrial contributions to GDP.
• Promoting investment through infrastructure projects like the 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway and Bagamoyo port.
• Advancing the blue economy in Zanzibar, targeting a contribution of 300,000 units (jobs or output, unclear) by 2030.
• Training 2,500 cooperative societies in Zanzibar to boost productivity.
• Providing affordable loans, such as two cows per youth annually in Zanzibar.

These targets build on the 2020–2025 manifesto’s achievements, such as increasing irrigated farmland from 681,383 to 983,466 hectares (+44%) and food security from 114% to 128%. The manifesto aligns with NDV 2050’s goal of achieving a USD 1 trillion GDP and USD 12,000 per capita GDP by 2050, requiring over 8% annual growth.

2. Current Economic Situation (as of May 31, 2025)

Tanzania’s economy is a lower-middle-income economy with a GDP per capita of USD 1,149 in 2024. Key economic indicators include:

• GDP Growth: Real GDP grew by 5.3% in 2023, driven by agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, and is projected at 5.6%–5.7% for 2024 and 6% for 2025. Zanzibar’s GDP growth was stronger at 7% in 2024 and is projected at 6.8% in 2025.
• Inflation: Inflation remained low at 3.8% in 2023, projected to decline to 3.3% in 2024 and rise slightly to 3.4% in 2025, supported by stable food and energy prices. In March 2025, inflation was 3.3%, with food inflation at 5.4%.
• Public Debt: Public debt is at 41.1% of GDP in 2024, posing a moderate risk, with foreign exchange shortages noted as a challenge to growth.
• FDI and Trade: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is growing, with 304 investment projects worth USD 3.74 billion in Zanzibar from 2015–2020, creating 16,866 jobs. Recent agreements, such as the Tanzania–Czech Republic Double Taxation Agreement and the Tanzania–UAE Business Council, aim to boost investment in manufacturing and technology.
• Poverty and Employment: The national poverty rate fell from 34.4% in 2007 to 26.4% in 2018, and extreme poverty dropped from 12% to 8%. However, youth unemployment remains a concern, with the private sector employing 70% of youth.

The economy benefits from stable macroeconomic conditions and a reputation for peace, attracting FDI in mining, energy, and tourism. However, challenges include a narrow tax base, foreign exchange shortages, and slow structural transformation, with reliance on low-productivity sectors like subsistence agriculture.

3. Historical Economic Performance

Historical data provides context for assessing the manifesto’s realism:

• GDP Growth: Tanzania has sustained an average GDP growth of 5.5% over the past decade, making it one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. From 2019 to 2020, real GDP grew by 4.8%, reaching USD 89.5 billion. Zanzibar’s per capita income rose from TZS 942,000 in 2010 to TZS 2,323,000 in 2018.
• Job Creation: The 2020–2025 manifesto targeted 8 million new jobs nationally, with industrial jobs increasing from 306,180 in 2020 to 500,000 by 2025. Zanzibar’s 2015–2020 investments created 16,866 jobs.
• Agricultural Transformation: Irrigated land expanded by 44% (681,383 to 983,466 hectares) from 2020–2024, and food security improved from 114% to 128% (Page 13). The 2022/23 budget allocated TZS 954 billion to agriculture, aiming for 10% sectoral growth by 2030.
• Infrastructure: Past achievements include progress on the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and port upgrades, with a goal to increase electricity capacity to 10,000 MW by 2025.

These achievements suggest CCM’s capacity to deliver on economic promises, but slow poverty reduction (26.4% in 2018) and reliance on public investment indicate challenges in achieving inclusive growth.

4. Realism of the Manifesto’s Economic Proposals

To evaluate the manifesto’s realism, we assess its key proposals against current conditions, historical trends, and feasibility:

a. Job Creation (350,000 Jobs in Zanzibar, Potential 8.5 Million Nationally)

• Realism: The target of 350,000 jobs in Zanzibar by 2030 is ambitious but plausible, given past performance (16,866 jobs from 2015–2020 investments). Zanzibar’s focus on tourism (targeting 5 million tourists by 2025, generating USD 6 billion) and the blue economy (300,000 units contribution) supports job creation in high-potential sectors. Nationally, an unconfirmed X post suggests a target of 8.5 million jobs, building on the 2020–2025 goal of 8 million. Achieving this requires scaling private sector-driven growth, as 70% of youth are already employed by the private sector.
• Challenges: Youth unemployment remains high, and the manifesto lacks specific national job targets. Structural transformation from low-productivity sectors like subsistence agriculture (25% of GDP) to industry and services is slow. External risks, such as foreign exchange shortages, could limit private sector investment.
• Support: Initiatives like training 2,500 cooperatives and providing livestock loans (two cows per youth annually) in Zanzibar enhance employability and income generation. Recent agreements with the UAE and Czech Republic signal continued FDI growth.

b. Investment Projects

• Realism: The manifesto’s focus on infrastructure (e.g., 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway, Bagamoyo port) and the blue economy (Mangapwani port) is likely to attract FDI, building on Zanzibar’s USD 3.74 billion from 2015–2020. Tanzania’s stable growth (5.5% average over 10 years) and strategic location make it a regional FDI hub. Projects like the USD 1.4 billion Tanzania–Zambia railway upgrade and the Kabanga Nickel Project underscore investor confidence.
• Challenges: Funding for large-scale projects is unclear, and public debt (41.1% of GDP) could strain resources. Regulatory challenges, such as land tenure and transparency, deter some investors.
• Support: The manifesto’s alignment with NDV 2050 and recent economic diplomacy (e.g., Tanzania–Mozambique Joint Economic Commission) strengthens the investment climate.

c. Per Capita Income

• Realism: The manifesto’s goal to increase Zanzibar’s per capita income builds on a rise from TZS 942,000 in 2010 to TZS 2,323,000 in 2018. Nationally, GDP per capita grew from USD 981 to USD 1,218 between 2015 and 2021. Initiatives like cooperative training and youth loans (Pages 58) could boost household incomes, particularly in rural areas (70% of the population).
• Challenges: The lack of a quantified target for per capita income limits measurability. Poverty reduction has been slow (26.4% in 2018), and income inequality persists.
• Support: The 35.1% minimum wage increase for public servants (from TZS 370,000 to TZS 500,000 in 2025) reflects efforts to improve incomes.

d. GDP Growth

• Realism: The manifesto does not specify 2030 GDP growth targets but aligns with external projections of 6% for Tanzania and 6.8% for Zanzibar in 2025. Achieving NDV 2050’s 8%+ annual growth requires sustained investment in agriculture (targeting 10% sectoral growth by 2030) and industry. Historical growth (5.3% in 2023, 4.8% in 2020) supports the feasibility of mid-term targets.
• Challenges: Geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, and a narrow tax base could hinder growth. The manifesto’s reliance on public investment may not sufficiently drive private sector-led growth, as noted by the World Bank.
• Support: Agricultural investments (TZS 954 billion in 2022/23) and tourism growth (18% of GDP) provide a strong foundation.

5. Critical Evaluation of Realism

The manifesto’s economic proposals are realistic in several respects:

• Track Record: CCM’s 2020–2025 achievements, such as irrigation expansion (+44%) and food security gains (128% sufficiency), demonstrate implementation capacity. Zanzibar’s historical FDI (USD 3.74 billion, 16,866 jobs) supports the feasibility of investment-driven growth.
• Policy Continuity: The manifesto builds on existing frameworks like FYDP III and NDV 2050, leveraging Tanzania’s stable growth (5.5% average) and low inflation (3.3% in 2025).
• Sectoral Focus: Prioritizing agriculture, tourism, and the blue economy aligns with Tanzania’s economic strengths (agriculture: 25% of GDP; tourism: 18%).

However, challenges threaten realism:

• Ambiguity: Targets like 300,000 units for the blue economy and per capita income increases lack clarity, complicating monitoring.
• Funding Gaps: Large-scale projects (e.g., 1,108-km railway) require significant funding, and public debt (41.1% of GDP) could limit resources.
• Structural Barriers: Slow structural transformation and reliance on subsistence agriculture (25% of GDP) hinder inclusive growth. Youth unemployment and regulatory challenges (e.g., land tenure) persist.
• External Risks: Foreign exchange shortages and geopolitical tensions could disrupt FDI and growth.

6. Conclusion

The CCM Manifesto for 2025 has the potential to drive economic transformation by 2030, but its success will depend on effective implementation and addressing challenges. The manifesto’s targets, such as creating 350,000 jobs in Zanzibar and infrastructure projects like the 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway, are supported by historical achievements (e.g., 16,866 jobs from USD 3.74 billion in Zanzibar investments) and current growth projections (6% for Tanzania, 6.8% for Zanzibar in 2025). Initiatives like training 2,500 cooperatives and boosting agricultural investment (TZS 954 billion in 2022/23) promote inclusive growth. However, vague targets, funding uncertainties, and structural issues, such as slow economic transformation and a public debt of 41.1% of GDP, demand careful management. With Tanzania’s stable growth (5.5% average) and strategic reforms, the manifesto holds realistic potential to achieve economic change by 2030, provided implementation is strong and external risks are mitigated.

Key figures related to the economic proposals in the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Manifesto for the 2025 General Election, launched on May 30, 2025, as requested in the question about its realism in bringing economic change to Tanzania by 2030. The table focuses on job creation, investment, per capita income, GDP growth, and related metrics, incorporating figures from the manifesto and relevant external sources to reflect the current economic situation (as of May 31, 2025, 11:05 AM EAT) and historical data. The figures are selected to assess the manifesto’s potential to drive economic transformation.

Notes:

1. Scope: The table includes key figures from the manifesto (e.g., 350,000 jobs in Zanzibar, 1,108-km railway) and external sources (e.g., 6% GDP growth for Tanzania in 2025, 3.3% inflation in March 2025) to evaluate the manifesto’s realism in driving economic change by 2030. Historical data (e.g., 304 investment projects worth USD 3.74 billion, 44% irrigation growth) provides context for feasibility.
2. Zanzibar Focus: The manifesto provides specific targets for Zanzibar, such as 350,000 jobs and 2,500 cooperatives, but lacks quantified national targets for per capita income and GDP growth, supplemented by external projections.
3. Ambiguity: The “300,000” figure for the blue economy lacks clear units (jobs or output), and per capita income targets are qualitative. National job creation targets (e.g., 8.5 million) are mentioned in external sources but not confirmed in the manifesto.
4. Current Context: As of May 31, 2025, 11:05 AM EAT, Tanzania’s stable growth (5.3% in 2023, 6% projected for 2025) and low inflation (3.3%) support the manifesto’s feasibility, though challenges like public debt (41.1% of GDP) and foreign exchange shortages persist.
5. Alignment with NDV 2050: The figures align with NDV 2050’s goals of achieving over 8% annual GDP growth, with manifesto initiatives like infrastructure and job creation supporting prosperity and inclusivity.

Tanzania Vision 2050 aims to transform the nation into a middle-income, semi-industrialized economy by 2050, targeting 8-10% annual GDP growth to support a projected population of over 114 million. The Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC), Local Government Authorities (LGAs), Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA), and Public-Private Partnership Centre (PPPC) play pivotal roles in achieving this ambition. This analysis evaluates how effectively these institutions align their efforts with the GDP growth target and explores inter-institutional collaborations to drive industrialization and poverty reduction, using key figures to highlight their contributions and challenges.

Tanzania’s GDP growth averaged 6.5% annually (2015-2024, World Bank), below the 8-10% target needed to triple economic output by 2050 to sustain per capita income for 114 million people. Each institution’s alignment is assessed based on current performance and scalability.

Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC)

• Contribution: TIC drives industrialization by attracting FDI. In 2023, TIC secured $6.2 billion in FDI, creating 150,000 jobs and boosting manufacturing/agro-processing exports by 12% annually (2020-2024). Vision 2050 requires $50 billion in FDI to achieve 8-10% GDP growth, contributing ~3% to growth via industrial output.
• Effectiveness: Moderately high. FDI supports GDP but is below the $2 billion/year needed to hit $50 billion by 2050. Bureaucratic delays (60% project operationalization rate) limit impact.
• Figure: $6.2 billion FDI (2023) vs. $50 billion target (2050).

Local Government Authorities (LGAs)

• Contribution: LGAs support local economies through service delivery and revenue mobilization. Their 5% share of national revenue (~$0.46 billion in 2024) funds small-scale agriculture and SMEs, contributing ~1% to GDP growth via rural productivity. Scaling to 10% revenue share could add 0.5% to growth.
• Effectiveness: Low. Limited revenue and staffing (40% positions filled in some regions) constrain contributions. Urban LGAs support industrial zones, but rural impact is minimal.
• Figure: $0.46 billion own-source revenue (2024) vs. $2.6 billion target (2050).

Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA)

• Contribution: TRA’s $9.26 billion revenue (12.5% tax-to-GDP ratio, 2024) funds 60% of the budget, including infrastructure like the Standard Gauge Railway, adding ~2% to GDP growth via public investment. A 20% tax-to-GDP ratio by 2050 could fund a $100 billion budget, contributing 3-4% to growth.
• Effectiveness: High. Digitalization (80% business compliance) supports scalability, but the informal sector (40% of GDP) limits revenue.
• Figure: 12.5% tax-to-GDP (2024) vs. 20% target (2050).

Public-Private Partnership Centre (PPPC)

• Contribution: PPPC’s $3 billion in PPPs (2020-2024) supports infrastructure (e.g., Dar es Salaam Port), adding ~1% to GDP growth via improved trade. Scaling to $20 billion by 2050 could contribute 2% to growth through urban infrastructure for 60% urbanization.
• Effectiveness: Moderate. Slow execution (10 projects completed, 2020-2024) hinders impact, but potential is high with regulatory reforms.
• Figure: $3 billion PPPs (2020-2024) vs. $20 billion target (2050).

Collective Alignment

• Current GDP Impact: TIC (~3%), TRA (~2%), PPPC (~1%), and LGAs (~1%) contribute ~7% to GDP growth, slightly below the 8-10% target. Gaps in execution and scale limit effectiveness.
• 2050 Outlook: Achieving targets ($50 billion FDI, 20% tax-to-GDP, $20 billion PPPs, 10% LGA revenue) could collectively drive 9-10% growth, meeting Vision 2050 goals.

Table 1: Alignment with 8-10% GDP Growth Target

2. Inter-Institutional Collaborations for Industrialization and Poverty Reduction

Industrialization and poverty reduction are core to Vision 2050, requiring job creation, infrastructure, and inclusive growth. Inter-institutional collaborations can bridge gaps and amplify impact. Below are key collaborations with figures.

Collaboration 1: TIC-TRA for Industrial Investment and Revenue

• Strategy: TIC offers tax incentives (e.g., 5-year tax holidays) for manufacturing, while TRA ensures compliance and reinvests revenue into industrial zones. TIC targets $50 billion FDI, and TRA raises tax-to-GDP to 20%.
• Industrialization Impact: Attracts 1,000 new factories by 2050, creating 5 million jobs (50% urban, 50% rural), boosting industrial GDP share from 25% to 40%.
• Poverty Reduction: Jobs reduce poverty from 25% to 10%, as each job supports ~5 people (NBS 2024). Rural agro-processing cuts rural poverty (currently 30%).
• Figure: $50 billion FDI + $37 billion TRA revenue = $87 billion investment pool by 2050.

Collaboration 2: PPPC-LGAs for Industrial Infrastructure

• Strategy: PPPC develops PPPs for industrial parks (e.g., $1 billion Bagamoyo SEZ), while LGAs provide land and local services. PPPC scales to 50 projects/year, and LGAs increase revenue to $2.6 billion.
• Industrialization Impact: 100 industrial parks by 2050, employing 2 million workers and increasing exports by 20% annually.
• Poverty Reduction: Infrastructure improves rural market access, lifting 10 million rural poor (15% of current rural population).
• Figure: $20 billion PPPs + $2.6 billion LGA revenue = $22.6 billion for infrastructure.

Collaboration 3: TRA-LGAs for SME Support

• Strategy: TRA simplifies SME taxation (e.g., flat 3% rate for small businesses), and LGAs provide training and market access. TRA targets 20% informal sector formalization, and LGAs scale SME support to 1 million businesses.
• Industrialization Impact: SMEs contribute 30% to industrial output by 2050, up from 20%, supporting light manufacturing.
• Poverty Reduction: 1 million SMEs employ 5 million workers, reducing urban poverty (currently 15%) by 50%.
• Figure: 200,000 formalized SMEs by 2035, generating $5 billion in revenue.

Collaboration 4: TIC-PPPC for Private Sector Innovation

• Strategy: TIC attracts tech FDI (e.g., $5 billion in ICT), and PPPC facilitates PPPs for digital infrastructure. TIC targets 10% FDI in tech, and PPPC develops 20 digital PPPs by 2050.
• Industrialization Impact: Tech sector adds 1% to GDP growth, supporting Industry 4.0 and 500,000 skilled jobs.
• Poverty Reduction: Digital access empowers 20 million rural youth with e-commerce and skills, cutting youth poverty (30% in 2024).
• Figure: $5 billion tech FDI + $2 billion digital PPPs = $7 billion innovation investment.

Table 2: Inter-Institutional Collaborations

Conclusion

TIC and TRA are highly effective, contributing 3% and 2% to GDP growth, but need to scale FDI and revenue to meet the 8-10% target. PPPC (score 6) and LGAs (score 4) lag due to execution and resource constraints but have potential with reforms. Inter-institutional collaborations—linking TIC-TRA for investment, PPPC-LGAs for infrastructure, TRA-LGAs for SMEs, and TIC-PPPC for innovation—can drive industrialization (40% GDP share) and reduce poverty to 10%.

Employment Trends in Tanzania (2025-2030), Bridging the Formal and Informal Gap

Tanzania’s workforce is 71.8% informal (25.95 million workers) and 28.2% formal (10.17 million workers), highlighting a major divide in job security, wages, and social protection. While formal employment is projected to rise to 38% by 2030, barriers such as limited job availability (42%), skills mismatches (26%), and bureaucratic challenges (21%) slow the transition. This report explores the key trends, challenges, and opportunities in Tanzania’s employment landscape, emphasizing the role of industrialization, digital transformation, and policy reforms in shaping the future workforce.

Key Figures

• 71.8% of Tanzania's workforce (approx. 25.95 million workers) is employed in the informal sector.
• 28.2% of the workforce (approx. 10.17 million workers) is in formal employment.
• The formal employment rate is projected to increase to 38% by 2030.
• 82% of respondents reported that digitalization has increased job opportunities.
• 49% of workers surveyed are in informal employment, while 23% are in formal jobs, and 27% are unemployed.
• 54% of informal workers were unaware of government formalization programs.
• Agriculture employs 28% of Tanzania's workforce, mostly informally.
• Small businesses make up 44% of the informal economy.

Main Issues Breakdown

1. The Divide Between Formal and Informal Employment

• Formal employment offers stability, benefits, and social security, but access is limited due to education, experience, and bureaucracy.
• Informal employment dominates the economy, with workers in agriculture, small businesses, and retail trade.
• Barriers to transitioning to formal jobs include:
  • Limited job availability (42%)
  • Skills mismatches (26%)
  • Bureaucratic registration processes (21%)

2. Education and Employment Trends

• 83% of formal sector workers hold a bachelor’s degree or higher.
• Workers with lower education levels (primary & secondary) are mostly in the informal sector.
• Diploma and vocational training holders find jobs mainly in skilled trades like construction and manufacturing.

3. Work Experience and Job Stability

• 25% of workers have less than 1 year of experience (mostly informal jobs).
• 49% have 2-5 years of experience, indicating a high number of early-career professionals.
• Mid-career workers (6-10 years) transition into formal employment.
• Senior professionals (10+ years) occupy leadership roles.

4. Challenges in Informal Employment

• No social protections (health insurance, pensions).
• Low and unstable incomes due to seasonal work.
• Limited access to financial services (loans and investment).
• Complex business registration discourages small businesses from formalizing.

5. Factors Encouraging Formalization

• 50% of workers are attracted by social security and benefits.
• 20% prefer formal jobs due to higher wages.
• 14% say government incentives (such as tax exemptions) help.
• 16% want simplified formalization processes.

6. Digital Technology and Employment Growth

• 82% of workers say technology has improved job creation.
• 53% reported that mobile banking and e-commerce have boosted employment.
• ICT, fintech, and digital platforms are creating new job opportunities.

7. Job Creation by Sector

• Agriculture (28%) is the largest employer but remains mostly informal.
• Manufacturing (18%) is growing due to industrialization.
• Construction (14%) benefits from government infrastructure projects.
• Technology/ICT (9%) is fast-growing but underdeveloped.

Policy Recommendations

To address these employment challenges, the report suggests:

1. Expand Industrialization and Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to increase formal jobs.
2. Improve Vocational Training to align skills with industry needs.
3. Simplify Business Registration and Taxation to encourage formalization.
4. Enhance Digital and Remote Work Opportunities through ICT training.
5. Introduce Affordable Social Protection Schemes for informal workers.

Conclusion

The Tanzanian labor market is shifting towards more formalization, but challenges like bureaucracy, low education levels, and financial constraints remain. The digital economy and government policy reforms present new opportunities to increase formal employment and improve workforce stability.

Employment Trends by Sector in Tanzania (2025-2030)