Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd

| Economic Research Centre

Global growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, with only a slight rise to 2.7% by 2026, falling below the pre-pandemic average of 3.1%. Advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024, while Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) will see 4.0% growth, driven by regions like South Asia, with India leading at 6.6%. Low-income countries are forecasted to grow by 5.0% in 2024. Key risks include geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, and debt stress, particularly for EMDEs, which may hinder recovery.

1. Global Growth Overview

2. Advanced Economies

3. Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs)

4. Growth in Low-Income Countries (LICs)

5. Global Growth Risks

Key Takeaways:

Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report

Global growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, rising to 2.7% by 2025-2026, which is slower than the pre-COVID average of 3.1%. Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are forecasted to grow at 4.0% in 2024, with Sub-Saharan Africa growing at 3.5%. Global inflation is expected to moderate to 3.5%, though it will remain above pre-pandemic levels, especially in EMDEs. Oil prices are set to average $84 per barrel in 2024, while non-energy commodity prices remain stable. Risks to growth include geopolitical tensions and high debt distress in 40% of EMDEs.

  1. Global Growth:
    • Global GDP growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, with an expected increase to 2.7% in 2025-2026. This growth is slower than the 3.1% average in the decade before COVID-19​.
    • By 2026, 80% of the world’s population will experience slower growth compared to pre-pandemic levels.
  2. Regional Growth:
    • Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are forecast to grow at 4.0% in 2024, down from 4.2% in 2023. China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.8% in 2024.
    • Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow at 3.5% in 2024, with a rise to 4.0% in 2026​.
  3. Global Inflation:
    • Inflation is projected to moderate to 3.5% globally in 2024, but it will remain higher than pre-pandemic levels​.
    • Inflation in EMDEs is expected to decline but will remain challenging for many regions due to commodity price fluctuations.
  4. Commodity Prices:
    • Oil prices are projected to be slightly higher in 2024, averaging $84 per barrel, but lower than 2023 prices​.
    • Prices for non-energy commodities are expected to remain stable​.
  5. Risks to Global Growth:
    • Escalating geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation pose significant risks to global growth.
    • Debt distress risks remain high for 40% of EMDEs, with many economies vulnerable to shocks​.

Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report

Global growth prospects in 2024 show diverse regional dynamics. South Asia is the fastest-growing region, with projected growth of 6.2%, driven by India’s 6.6% expansion. East Asia and Pacific (EAP) growth is expected at 4.8%, led by China, though slowing due to structural issues. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will see a modest improvement to 3.5%, while Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions forecast 3.0% and 2.8% growth, respectively. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) will have the slowest growth at 1.8%, constrained by fiscal challenges and weak investment.

1. East Asia and Pacific (EAP)

2. Europe and Central Asia (ECA)

3. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

4. Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

5. South Asia

6. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

7. Low-Income Countries (LICs)

Summary of Regional Outlooks:

Source: The Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report

Commodity prices are projected to stabilize after the volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, though they will remain at historically high levels. In 2024, oil prices are forecast to rise to $84 per barrel, up from $82.6 in 2023, but will gradually decline to $78.1 per barrel by 2026. Non-energy commodities, including metals and agricultural products, are expected to see modest declines, with the non-energy index slightly decreasing to 110.1 in 2024. However, risks such as geopolitical tensions, climate change, and trade disruptions could still affect price trends globally.

1. Overview of Commodity Prices

2. Energy Prices

3. Non-Energy Commodities

4. Food and Agricultural Commodities

5. Risks to Commodity Prices

6. Long-Term Projections

Key Figures:

Summary of Commodity Price Outlook:

Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2024 report

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