Tax policies significantly influence Tanzania’s investment climate, affecting both local and foreign investors. While taxation is crucial for government revenue, an overly complex and high tax regime can discourage investments, limit capital inflows, and slow economic growth. This article explores how tax laws shape investment trends in Tanzania, presenting key figures, challenges, and potential solutions.
Tanzania’s Tax System and Investment Trends
1. Corporate Tax Rates and Regional Comparison
Tanzania imposes a 30% corporate tax rate on resident companies, one of the highest in East Africa. In contrast:
Kenya: 25%
Rwanda: 28%
Ethiopia: 25%
The high tax rate discourages investments, as seen in 2022 when Tanzania attracted only $922 million in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), compared to Kenya’s $2 billion and Ethiopia’s $3.1 billion.
2. Tax Compliance and Bureaucracy
Tanzania ranks 163rd out of 190 countries in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index (2020), reflecting long tax compliance procedures. Businesses spend an average of 240 hours per year filing tax documents, compared to 150 hours in Rwanda.
A survey conducted by TICGL in 2025 revealed:
72% of investors found Tanzania’s tax system too complex.
63% reported high corporate taxes as a barrier to business expansion.
Investors in Tanzania face multiple layers of taxation, including:
Corporate tax (30%)
Withholding tax (10-15%)
Skills and Development Levy (4%)
Value-Added Tax (VAT) (18%)
Tanzania’s VAT refund delays are a significant issue, with pending refunds amounting to TSh 1.4–1.5 trillion ($650 million) in 2025. Some businesses wait over 12 months for VAT refunds, severely affecting cash flow and expansion plans.
In 2017, Tanzania’s Revenue Authority (TRA) imposed a $190 billion tax bill on Acacia Mining.
The dispute lasted two years, causing a 70% stock price drop and a 30% decline in FDI in the mining sector.
Telecommunications: Vodacom Tanzania’s $2.5 Million Tax Case
Vodacom was issued a TSh 5.8 billion ($2.5 million) tax bill in 2021, disrupting its planned 5G expansion.
Tourism Sector: Serena Hotels’ VAT Refund Issues
Serena Hotels in Tanzania faced a two-year delay on VAT refunds worth TSh 2.1 billion ($900,000), leading to cash flow problems.
Recommendations for a Better Investment Climate
Lower Corporate Tax to 25%
Aligning with Kenya and Ethiopia could increase Tanzania’s FDI inflows.
Simplify Tax Compliance
Introduce a one-stop tax portal to reduce paperwork and compliance time.
Reduce VAT to 16%
This would enhance competitiveness and reduce operational costs for businesses.
Automate VAT Refund Processing
Ensuring refunds are processed within 30 days would improve business cash flow.
Introduce a 5-Year Tax Stability Framework
This would provide predictability and confidence for long-term investors.
Conclusion
Tanzania's current tax policies present significant barriers to investment. High corporate taxes, multiple taxation, VAT refund delays, and unpredictable policy changes discourage both local and foreign investors. If key reforms are implemented—such as lowering tax rates, simplifying compliance, and improving tax administration—Tanzania could increase FDI by 10-15% over the next five years, boosting economic growth and job creation.
The Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) demonstrated exceptional performance in the first half of the 2024/2025 fiscal year, consistently exceeding revenue targets with efficiency rates above 100% and achieving year-on-year growth ranging from 15% to 23.6%. With total collections peaking at TZS 3.587 trillion in December 2024, driven by strengthened economic activities and improved tax compliance, TRA's strategic initiatives have set a solid foundation for continued growth. Forecasts for January–June 2025 project sustained revenue momentum, reinforcing TRA's pivotal role in enhancing Tanzania’s fiscal stability and economic development.
1. Overview of Monthly Performance
The table shows the revenue collections compared to targets and highlights both efficiency (how much was collected compared to the target) and growth (how much collections increased compared to the previous year).
Month
Collections 2023/2024 (TZS Trillion)
Target 2024/2025 (TZS Trillion)
Collections 2024/2025 (TZS Trillion)
Efficiency (%)
Growth (%)
July
1.939
2.247
2.347
104.45
21.04
August
2.011
2.295
2.421
105.49
20.39
September
2.625
2.882
3.019
104.75
15.01
October
2.148
2.471
2.655
107.45
23.60
November
2.143
2.417
2.499
103.39
16.61
December
3.050
3.465
3.587
103.52
17.61
2. Key Observations
A. Efficiency (Target Achievement)
July 2024: Revenue collection was 104.45% of the target (TZS 2.347 trillion collected against a target of TZS 2.247 trillion).
October 2024: The highest efficiency was recorded at 107.45%, showing TRA’s strong performance in meeting and exceeding targets.
December 2024: Efficiency was 103.52%, indicating slight overperformance relative to the target of TZS 3.465 trillion.
B. Growth (Year-on-Year Increase)
July 2024: Revenue grew by 21.04% from TZS 1.939 trillion in July 2023/2024 to TZS 2.347 trillion in 2024/2025.
October 2024: This month recorded the highest growth at 23.60%, a sign of increased economic activity or improved tax compliance mechanisms.
December 2024: Growth was 17.61%, an improvement of TZS 0.537 trillion compared to December 2023/2024.
3. Breakdown of Key Drivers
Revenue Growth Factors
Improved economic activity during the year, particularly in key sectors like trade and services.
Strengthened tax administration and enforcement measures by TRA.
Efficiency in Exceeding Targets
Enhanced compliance through digital tax systems (e.g., EFDs).
Improved taxpayer education and monitoring contributed to high revenue performance.
Month-on-Month Trends
The largest revenue collection occurred in December 2024 (TZS 3.587 trillion), likely due to increased economic activity during the holiday season.
July 2024 saw a strong start with significant growth and efficiency, setting the pace for subsequent months.
4. Highlights and Takeaways
Consistent Growth: Revenue growth ranged from 15% to 23.6%, demonstrating resilience in collections despite possible economic challenges.
Exceeding Targets: TRA consistently achieved over 100% efficiency, showing effective planning and execution.
Peak Collection: December was the strongest month in absolute collections, reflecting seasonal economic patterns.
Forecast for revenue collections by the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) for the next six months (January–June 2025), based on the average growth rate observed between July and December 2024/2025:
Month
Forecasted Collections (TZS Trillion)
January
3.97
February
4.40
March
4.86
April
5.39
May
5.96
June
6.60
Key Observations:
January 2025: Forecasted collections are TZS 3.97 trillion, an increase from December 2024 due to consistent growth momentum.
June 2025: Collections are projected to reach TZS 6.60 trillion, reflecting significant month-on-month growth.
Trend: Revenue is expected to grow steadily due to sustained improvements in tax compliance and economic activities.
Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) for July–December 2024/2025 and the forecast for January–June 2025 offers key insights into the efficiency, growth, and trends of revenue collections:
1. Efficiency (Target Achievement)
TRA consistently exceeded revenue targets, achieving efficiency rates above 100% across all months, with a peak of 107.45% in October 2024.
This indicates robust tax collection strategies, improved taxpayer compliance, and effective administrative measures.
Even in December, where targets are typically ambitious, TRA managed to collect 3.587 trillion TZS, surpassing the target by 3.52%.
2. Growth (Year-on-Year Comparison)
Revenue collections showed steady growth compared to the previous fiscal year, ranging from 15.01% in September to a high of 23.60% in October.
The high growth rates suggest:
Strengthened economic activity, particularly in trade and services.
Enhanced enforcement of tax compliance and digital systems like EFDs.
3. Seasonal Trends and Peaks
July 2024: Marked a strong start with 21.04% growth, setting a positive trajectory for subsequent months.
December 2024: Registered the highest collections in absolute terms (3.587 trillion TZS), attributed to increased holiday-related economic activity.
4. Key Drivers Behind Performance
Economic Growth: Expansion in key sectors such as trade and services contributed to rising tax revenues.
Technological Integration: Use of digital tax systems and improved enforcement mechanisms enhanced compliance.
Taxpayer Education: Increased awareness among taxpayers likely reduced evasion and improved voluntary compliance.
5. Forecast for January–June 2025
Forecasted collections project sustained growth, with revenues rising from 3.97 trillion TZS in January to 6.60 trillion TZS in June 2025.
The steady increase indicates momentum in tax collection strategies and economic performance.
By June 2025, collections are expected to reflect nearly 66% growth compared to January 2025, showcasing robust monthly expansion.
6. Overall Insights
Consistency in Exceeding Targets: TRA’s ability to consistently exceed revenue targets demonstrates strong institutional efficiency.
Sustained Growth: Growth rates of 15–23.6% suggest resilience in economic activities despite potential challenges.
Strategic Focus: December’s peak collections and the upward forecast highlight the importance of seasonal and economic patterns in TRA’s strategies.
Future Prospects: The optimistic forecast for January–June 2025 underscores TRA's capability to leverage momentum and maintain revenue collection growth.
Digital loans have experienced significant growth in Tanzania, driven by mobile technology, increased phone ownership, and partnerships between banks, microfinance institutions, and mobile network operators (MNOs).
Key Statistics
Total Number of Digital Loan Accounts:
The number of digital loan accounts in Tanzania skyrocketed by 198% from 32.09 million in 2022 to 95.89 million in 2023.
This dramatic increase highlights a growing trend of digital borrowing, especially among low-income and rural populations who find traditional banking inaccessible.
Amount of Digital Credit Issued:
The total amount of digital credit issued in Tanzania surged from TZS 26.79 billion in 2022 to TZS 126.03 billion in 2023, marking a 370% increase.
This indicates that while the number of loans has grown significantly, the total value of loans issued has also risen, suggesting an increasing demand for larger loans.
Demographic Trends:
Men represent 66.5% of all digital loan borrowers, while women account for 33.5%. However, the number of women accessing digital loans is steadily increasing, indicating greater financial empowerment among women.
Youth and young adults (primarily those aged 18–35) make up a large proportion of digital loan borrowers, as they are more likely to use mobile phones and digital financial services.
Active Mobile Money Accounts:
The increase in mobile money accounts (from 38.34 million in 2022 to 51.72 million in 2023) has contributed to the growth of digital loan services, as digital loan products are typically linked to mobile wallets.
The growth in mobile money accounts and the availability of National Identification Numbers (NINs) have made it easier for more people to access mobile financial services.
Key Drivers of Growth
Technology and Mobile Penetration:
The expansion of 3G and 4G network coverage and the increased availability of smartphones have made digital loans more accessible to Tanzanians, particularly in rural areas.
The ease of instant loans via mobile platforms has allowed users to access credit without needing a bank account or physical collateral.
Partnerships between Banks and MNOs:
Many financial institutions have partnered with mobile network operators (MNOs) to offer digital loans. These partnerships leverage MNOs' extensive mobile money networks, enabling quicker disbursement and repayment of loans.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is used to assess the creditworthiness of borrowers, allowing for faster loan approval processes based on transaction history and mobile phone usage.
Government Support:
Regulatory changes by the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) and other financial authorities have helped create a favorable environment for digital lending, supporting the development of mobile loan platforms and enhancing financial inclusion.
Impact of Digital Loans
Financial Inclusion:
Digital loans have significantly improved financial inclusion by providing access to credit for underserved populations, particularly in rural areas where traditional banks have limited reach.
The increased access to instant loans has enabled individuals to meet urgent financial needs, such as healthcare, education, or emergency expenses.
Economic Growth:
By giving small businesses and individuals access to capital, digital loans contribute to economic activity, especially for MSMEs and entrepreneurs who may otherwise struggle to access credit from traditional financial institutions.
Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges:
Despite their growth, digital loans often carry high-interest rates, which can burden borrowers, especially those in low-income segments.
There is also concern over the sustainability of digital lending models, as some borrowers may struggle to repay loans on time, leading to over-indebtedness.
Opportunities:
The growth of digital credit presents opportunities for further product innovation in micro-lending, especially targeting women and youth.
There is potential for regulatory improvements to balance the rapid growth of digital lending with consumer protection to ensure long-term stability and sustainability.
Conclusion
The surge in digital loans in Tanzania, with a 198% increase in loan accounts and a 370% rise in the value of loans, demonstrates the country's rapid adoption of mobile financial services. While digital loans have opened up new opportunities for financial inclusion, they also present challenges related to affordability and long-term sustainability. Continued innovation, coupled with regulatory oversight, will be key to maximizing the benefits of digital lending in Tanzania's evolving financial landscape.
Between 2019 and 2023, Tanzania's financial landscape experienced remarkable growth, with total financial access points increasing by 130%, from 609,956 in 2019 to 1,402,609 in 2023. This expansion was driven by a 116% rise in mobile money agents (from 573,444 to 1,240,106) and a 365% growth in bank agents (from 28,358 to 106,176). The country’s financial inclusion rate improved from 65% in 2017 to 76% in 2023, showcasing the success of digital innovations and policy reforms under the National Financial Inclusion Framework. This growth underscores Tanzania's commitment to bridging the financial access gap, particularly in underserved areas.
Financial Services Providers Landscape in Tanzania
Tanzania's financial services landscape is diverse and rapidly growing, driven by digital innovations and regulatory improvements. The sector comprises banking institutions, microfinance, insurance, capital markets, and payment service providers:
Access to Financial Services
Banking Services:
Number of bank agents grew from 28,358 in 2019 to 106,176 in 2023.
Banking access points increased to 107,238 in 2023, driven by reforms in agent banking.
Microfinance Institutions (MFIs):
Access points reached 51,253 in 2023, marking a 31% annual growth.
Community Microfinance Groups (CMGs) dominate with 48,659 access points, reflecting a formalization trend.
Payment Services:
Mobile money agents grew by 19.4% to 1.24 million in 2023.
Mobile money accounts increased by 34.9% to 51.72 million.
Usage of Financial Services
Savings:
Banking sector savings reached TZS 6.99 trillion, an 18.1% increase.
Savings accounts in SACCOs decreased in value to TZS 870 billion, as some members preferred borrowing.
Credit:
Total bank loans grew by 24.4% to TZS 33.10 trillion.
SACCOs' loans amounted to TZS 1.12 trillion, a 3.7% increase.
Insurance:
Policyholders increased by 94.4% to 7.68 million, mainly due to mandatory motor insurance and health coverage expansion.
Capital Markets:
Investors in securities increased by 12.5% to 907,969, supported by technology-enabled platforms.
Growth Drivers
Digital Financial Services: The rise of mobile money and online platforms improved accessibility and efficiency.
Policy Frameworks: The National Financial Inclusion Framework (2023-2028) prioritized underserved populations.
Regulatory Enhancements: New guidelines fostered innovations, such as digital insurance platforms and microfinance formalization.
Government Programs: Local Government Authority loans provided TZS 24.02 billion to women and TZS 19.92 billion to youth in 2023.
Total Number of Financial Access Points in Tanzania (2019–2023)
The number of financial access points in Tanzania grew significantly between 2019 and 2023, driven by expansion across banking, microfinance, insurance, and payment systems:
Overall Growth
In 2019, Tanzania had 609,956 financial access points.
By 2023, this number increased to 1,402,609, representing a 130% growth over the period.
Yearly Breakdown of Access Points
Year
Total Financial Access Points
Annual Growth (%)
2019
609,956
-
2020
798,790
30.97%
2021
973,245
21.85%
2022
1,215,033
24.84%
2023
1,402,609
15.44%
Sector-wise Contribution
Banking Services:
Grew from 29,371 access points in 2019 to 107,238 in 2023.
Bank agents contributed most to this increase, quadrupling during the period.
Microfinance Services:
Increased from 6,241 access points in 2019 to 53,371 in 2023, driven by the formalization of Community Microfinance Groups (CMGs).
Insurance Services:
Access points rose from 795 in 2019 to 1,495 in 2023, a 88% growth, fueled by digital platforms and bancassurance agents.
Payment Systems (Non-Bank):
Dominated the landscape, growing from 573,444 access points in 2019 to 1,240,106 in 2023, representing 116% growth.
Mobile money agents were the largest contributors.
Capital Markets Services:
Modest growth from 91 access points in 2019 to 380 in 2023, reflecting a focus on investment advisory and fund management.
Social Security Services:
Grew slightly from 14 access points in 2019 to 19 in 2023, limited by the niche nature of this sector.
Key Drivers of Growth
Digital Transformation: Mobile money platforms and digital payment systems rapidly increased access.
Policy and Regulation: The implementation of the National Financial Inclusion Framework (NFIF) facilitated formalization and innovation.
Public-Private Partnerships: Collaboration with stakeholders such as banks, microfinance institutions, and insurers expanded reach.
Implications
The steady increase in financial access points reflects Tanzania's progress in financial inclusion, ensuring more adults live within a 5 km radius of financial services (89% in 2023, up from 86% in 2017).
Insights from Tanzania's Financial Services Providers Landscape (2023) and Financial Access Points (2019–2023)
1. Strong Progress in Financial Inclusion
The rapid growth in financial access points and the diversification of financial service providers illustrate Tanzania's consistent strides in financial inclusion. The financial inclusion rate increased from 65% in 2017 to 76% in 2023, demonstrating that more Tanzanians are accessing formal financial services.
2. Dominance of Digital Financial Services
The exponential growth in mobile money agents (from 573,444 in 2019 to 1,240,106 in 2023) highlights how digital financial services dominate the financial landscape.
Digital innovations, such as mobile money, are bridging the gap in rural and underserved areas, making financial services more accessible and affordable.
3. Role of Policy and Regulation
The implementation of frameworks like the National Financial Inclusion Framework (NFIF-3, 2023–2028), along with regulatory reforms for digital platforms, insurance, and microfinance, has created an enabling environment for growth.
This alignment between public and private stakeholders reflects a focused approach to tackling barriers to financial access.
4. Significant Growth in Banking Services
The growth in banking agents (from 28,358 in 2019 to 106,176 in 2023) shows that agent banking reforms have effectively decentralized banking, bringing services closer to people, especially in rural areas.
5. Increased Focus on Underserved Segments
Initiatives targeting women, youth, MSMEs, and smallholder farmers have driven tailored products, like women-friendly savings accounts and micro-loans, showcasing a shift towards inclusive financial services.
6. Opportunities in Microfinance and Capital Markets
The formalization of Community Microfinance Groups (CMGs) and the growth of capital markets (e.g., fund managers and collective investment schemes) indicate untapped potential for rural financing and investment.
7. Persistent Challenges
Despite improvements, certain challenges persist:
Social security services access points remain limited (only 19 access points in 2023).
Urban-rural disparities still exist, as infrastructure in rural areas lags behind urban centers.
Low uptake of advanced financial services like pensions and insurance, indicating a need for more public awareness and tailored products.
8. Economic and Social Impacts
Economic Growth: With credit values increasing by 24.4% in banks and 3.7% in SACCOs in 2023, the financial sector has become a key driver of economic growth by mobilizing savings and enabling trade.
Social Benefits: Financial inclusion efforts have empowered previously underserved populations, enhancing their ability to save, invest, and access credit.
Key Takeaways
Growth with Innovation: The financial services landscape in Tanzania is becoming increasingly diversified, with digital financial services leading the charge.
Policy as a Catalyst: The alignment of policy, innovation, and private-sector initiatives ensures sustainable growth in financial inclusion.
Targeted Efforts are Essential: Continued focus on underserved segments like rural populations and MSMEs is crucial for equitable economic growth.
In September 2024, Tanzania's bank lending rate rose slightly to 12.92% from 12.79% in August, reflecting cautious adjustments in monetary policy. This rate, slightly below the long-term average of 13.09%, highlights the Bank of Tanzania's efforts to manage inflation and stabilize the economy while maintaining a moderately high cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers.
1. Current Trends (2024)
In September 2024, the bank lending rate increased to 12.92%, up slightly from 12.79% in August 2024.
This indicates a monthly increase of 0.13 percentage points, reflecting a tightening of credit conditions or adjustments to monetary policy.
2. Historical Averages (2003-2024)
Over the last 21 years, the average bank lending rate in Tanzania has been 13.09%.
This average suggests that the current lending rate of 12.92% is slightly below the long-term trend, signaling a relatively moderate borrowing cost in the historical context.
3. Extreme Values
Highest Rate: The lending rate peaked at 17.91% in September 2017, likely due to monetary tightening or inflation control measures.
Lowest Rate: The lending rate hit a record low of 7.53% in March 2004, reflecting favorable credit conditions and possibly expansive monetary policy.
4. Insights from Changes
The recent uptick in 2024 may indicate cautious monetary policy adjustments, aiming to balance economic growth with inflation control.
Historical fluctuations reflect responses to various economic conditions, including:
Inflation trends: High lending rates often align with inflationary pressures.
Monetary policy stance: Changes in the Central Bank’s policies to control liquidity and stabilize the Tanzanian shilling.
Economic growth phases: Lower rates during growth-supportive periods and higher rates during economic cooling.
5. Implications for Borrowers and Businesses
At 12.92%, borrowing costs remain significant for businesses and consumers.
Compared to the record high of 17.91%, the current rate offers some relief, but it’s still far from the record low of 7.53%.
The bank lending rate data for Tanzania tells several important economic and monetary policy stories:
1. Monetary Policy Trends
Current Tightening: The slight increase from 12.79% to 12.92% in September 2024 suggests that the Bank of Tanzania is either:
Managing inflation risks.
Controlling excessive credit growth.
This indicates a cautious tightening or stabilization phase in monetary policy.
2. Credit Environment
Borrowing Costs: A lending rate of 12.92% reflects a relatively high cost of borrowing, which can:
Limit small businesses and consumers’ ability to access affordable loans.
Compared to historical lows (7.53% in 2004), current rates make credit more expensive, potentially affecting economic activity.
3. Historical Context
Long-Term Average (13.09%):
The current rate is slightly below the historical average, suggesting that borrowing conditions are moderately stable but not overly restrictive.
Extreme Variations:
The record high (17.91% in 2017) occurred during a period of high inflation and stringent monetary policy.
The record low (7.53% in 2004) reflects a time of looser monetary policy aimed at boosting economic growth.
4. Implications for Economic Growth
For Businesses:
High lending rates increase the cost of capital, particularly for sectors dependent on bank loans, such as SMEs and agriculture.
Limits expansion plans and investment in capital-intensive projects.
For Consumers:
Higher rates increase borrowing costs, impacting personal loans, mortgages, and spending power.
5. Signals to Stakeholders
To Policymakers: The Bank of Tanzania might be balancing inflationary pressures against the need to support economic growth. Maintaining rates slightly below the long-term average reflects a careful approach.
To Investors: A moderately high lending rate suggests a relatively stable financial system, but caution is needed in sectors sensitive to borrowing costs.
To the Public: Fluctuations in rates can affect consumer confidence, especially if they expect prolonged high borrowing costs.
As of September 2024, Tanzania's total external debt reached USD 32.89 billion, accounting for 73% of the country’s total national debt. The central government held the largest share of external debt at USD 25.43 billion (78.1%), with funds directed toward critical sectors like transport (21.5%) and social welfare (20.8%). Domestically, the government owed TZS 32.62 trillion, with Treasury bonds dominating at 78.9%. Despite strategic investments, reliance on the USD (67.4% of external debt) and limited funding for agriculture (5.1%) and tourism (1.6%) pose challenges to debt sustainability and inclusive economic growth.
1. External Debt
Key Figures
Total External Debt Stock (Sept 2024): USD 32,890.0 million.
Proportion of National Debt: 73%.
Main Components:
Disbursed Outstanding Debt: USD 31,425.6 million.
Undisbursed Debt: USD 5,042.7 million.
Debt Stock by Borrowers
Central Government: USD 25,428.6 million (78.1% of external debt).
Private Sector: USD 5,993.2 million (21.9% of external debt).
Public Corporations: USD 3.8 million (negligible share).
Use of Funds (Disbursed Outstanding Debt)
Transport and Telecommunications: 21.5% – Largest allocation, highlighting the government's priority on improving connectivity and mobility.
Social Welfare and Education: 20.8% – Significant focus on human capital development.
Balance of Payments Support: 17.9% – Indicates reliance on external financing for stabilizing the country's foreign exchange reserves.
Energy and Mining: 14.8% – Focus on infrastructure for energy and resource exploitation.
Tourism: 1.6% – Surprisingly low given its economic importance.
Real Estate and Construction: 4.8%.
Other Uses: 5.8%.
Currency Composition
US Dollar: 67.4% – Reflects high exposure to exchange rate fluctuations against the USD.
Euro: 16.6%.
Chinese Yuan: 6.3%.
Other Currencies: 9.7%.
2. Internal (Domestic) Debt
Key Figures
Total Domestic Debt Stock (Sept 2024): TZS 32,615.7 billion.
Month-on-Month Change: Decreased by TZS 144.5 billion.
Main Instruments:
Treasury Bonds: 78.9% – Dominates domestic debt instruments, preferred for their longer maturity periods.
Domestic Debt by Creditor
Commercial Banks: 29.7% (TZS 9,678.8 billion) – Largest creditors, showing banking sector's key role in funding government activities.
Bank of Tanzania: 20.5% (TZS 6,696.3 billion) – Central bank’s significant share indicates monetary policy alignment.
Pension Funds: 27.6% (TZS 8,991.4 billion) – Reflects government reliance on long-term funds.
Insurance Companies: 5.8% (TZS 1,904.2 billion).
BOT’s Special Funds: 1.2% (TZS 389.0 billion).
Others: 15.2% (TZS 4,956.0 billion) – Includes various smaller creditors.
Insights
Debt Composition: External debt forms a significant majority (73%), exposing the economy to foreign exchange risks, especially given the dominance of USD (67.4%).
Focus Areas of Debt Use: Prioritization of transport, telecommunications, social services, and energy aligns with Tanzania's development goals, though agriculture and tourism receive relatively smaller allocations.
Domestic Financing: Treasury bonds dominate, with commercial banks and pension funds as major participants, reflecting a stable domestic borrowing market.
The key insights into Tanzania's fiscal and economic dynamics:
1. Heavy Reliance on External Debt
External Borrowing: Makes up 73% of total debt, indicating significant dependency on international sources for financing development projects and budgetary needs.
Risks: High exposure to currency exchange rate fluctuations, especially with 67.4% of external debt denominated in USD. Any depreciation of the Tanzanian shilling could increase the cost of servicing the debt.
2. Focused Use of Funds
Priority Sectors:
Transport, telecommunications, and social welfare (education and health) receive a combined 42.3% of external debt funding. This reflects strategic efforts to improve infrastructure and human capital.
Energy and mining account for 14.8%, essential for supporting industrialization and reducing power shortages.
Underfunded Areas:
Agriculture (5.1%) and tourism (1.6%) receive smaller shares, despite their significance in Tanzania's GDP and employment. This could suggest underprioritization of these critical sectors or reliance on other forms of financing for them.
3. Dominance of Treasury Bonds in Domestic Debt
Treasury bonds constitute 78.9% of domestic debt, reflecting:
A preference for long-term instruments that reduce refinancing risks.
A relatively well-developed domestic bond market to absorb government debt.
Impact: Stable borrowing through domestic sources reduces reliance on volatile external sources but concentrates risk within the local financial system.
4. Key Domestic Creditors
Commercial Banks and Pension Funds: Together hold over 57% of domestic debt, showing reliance on institutional investors for funding.
Central Bank Role: The Bank of Tanzania (20.5%) plays a critical role in supporting government borrowing, reflecting alignment with monetary policy goals.
5. Debt Sustainability and Macro Risks
Short-Term Indicators: While the focus on productive sectors like transport and energy could boost long-term growth, the high proportion of debt (external and domestic) demands careful management to avoid repayment challenges.
Diversification Needs: The small allocation to tourism and agriculture may limit potential contributions from these sectors, which are key to inclusive growth and export earnings.
Debt Service Pressures: Heavy USD dependency can amplify costs if global financial conditions tighten (e.g., rising interest rates or strengthening dollar).
Key Messages
Opportunities: Investment in infrastructure, energy, and education positions Tanzania for future economic growth.
Challenges: Managing debt sustainability, diversifying financing sources, and balancing sectoral priorities remain crucial to minimize risks and maximize development impact.
TANROADS’ top 10 infrastructure projects, valued at 1,846.422 Billion TZS, highlight a strategic focus on transformative investments between 2015 and 2021. The J.P. Magufuli Bridge, the most expensive project at 592.609 Billion TZS, underscores the prioritization of specialized, high-impact infrastructure. While projects like BRT Phase 2 Lot 1 focus on urban mobility with a cost of 189.4 Billion TZS, rural connectivity is efficiently addressed through cost-effective roadworks such as Komanga-Kasinde LOT2 and Kasinde-Mpanda LOT3, averaging just 1.24 Billion TZS/km. These investments reflect TANROADS’ commitment to improving transport, trade, and regional integration across Tanzania.
1. J.P. Magufuli Bridge
Contract Value: 592.609 Billion TZS
Signing Date: 29/07/2019
Length: 3.20 km
Cost per km: ~185.19 Billion TZS/km
Key Features:
By far the most expensive project.
Nearly three times the cost of the second-highest project, due to its specialized infrastructure.
Likely serves as a critical link in Tanzania's national transportation network.
2. BRT Phase 2 Lot 1
Contract Value: 189.400 Billion TZS
Signing Date: 10/12/2018
Length: 20.30 km
Cost per km: ~9.33 Billion TZS/km
Purpose: Developing Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) infrastructure for Dar es Salaam, enhancing urban mobility.
3. Lusitu-Mawengi LOT2
Contract Value: 159.217 Billion TZS
Signing Date: 22/08/2016
Length: 50.00 km
Cost per km: ~3.18 Billion TZS/km
Key Features: Significant for regional connectivity.
4. Usesule-Komanga LOT1
Contract Value: 158.800 Billion TZS
Signing Date: 12/11/2017
Length: 117.67 km
Cost per km: ~1.35 Billion TZS/km
Key Features: Covers a substantial length, making it cost-efficient on a per-km basis.
5. Widening of Morogoro Road (Kimara–Kibaha)
Contract Value: 140.450 Billion TZS
Signing Date: 13/07/2018
Length: 19.20 km
Cost per km: ~7.32 Billion TZS/km
Type: Road widening project to reduce traffic congestion and enhance trade flow.
6. Komanga-Kasinde LOT2
Contract Value: 140.000 Billion TZS
Signing Date: 12/11/2017
Length: 112.80 km
Cost per km: ~1.24 Billion TZS/km
Key Features: Among the lowest per-kilometer costs, reflecting efficient use of resources.
7. Kasinde-Mpanda LOT3
Contract Value: 133.800 Billion TZS
Signing Date: 12/11/2017
Length: 108.00 km
Cost per km: ~1.24 Billion TZS/km
Key Features: Continues the connectivity corridor established by Komanga-Kasinde LOT2.
8. LOT 2: Ihumwa Dry Port – Matumbulu – Nala Section
Contract Value: 120.860 Billion TZS
Signing Date: 14/02/2020
Length: 60.00 km
Cost per km: ~2.01 Billion TZS/km
Purpose: Facilitating logistics and trade efficiency through improved connectivity.
9. Moronga-Makete LOT2
Contract Value: 110.446 Billion TZS
Signing Date: 06/02/2017
Length: 53.50 km
Cost per km: ~2.06 Billion TZS/km
10. LOT 1: Nala – Veyula – Mtumba – Ihumwa Dry Port Section
Contract Value: 100.840 Billion TZS
Signing Date: 10/07/2020
Length: 52.30 km
Cost per km: ~1.93 Billion TZS/km
Key Observations and Trends
1. Cost Distribution
Total Value: 1,846.422 Billion TZS
Share of Total Budget: Represents 56.6% of all TANROADS projects analyzed.
2. Timeline Pattern
2017–2020 Dominance:
2017: 3 projects
2018: 2 projects
2019: 1 project
2020: 2 projects
2016: 1 project
3. Project Types
Specialized Infrastructure: High costs for unique projects like J.P. Magufuli Bridge and BRT Phase 2.
Road Networks: Focus on connectivity and regional development.
Urban Development: Projects like road widening (Kimara–Kibaha) address traffic and urban transit.
4. Cost Efficiency
Highest Cost per km: J.P. Magufuli Bridge (~185.19 Billion TZS/km) reflects the complexity and engineering required.
Lowest Cost per km: Komanga-Kasinde LOT2 and Kasinde-Mpanda LOT3 (~1.24 Billion TZS/km) due to simpler terrains or resource efficiency.
5. Geographic Distribution
Projects cover diverse regions, from urban centers like Dar es Salaam to rural areas, ensuring equitable development.
The analysis of the top 10 TANROADS projects provides several insights into Tanzania's infrastructure priorities and investment strategy:
1. Strategic Investment Priorities
Focus on High-Impact Projects: Projects like J.P. Magufuli Bridge and BRT Phase 2 Lot 1 emphasize TANROADS’ focus on large-scale, transformative infrastructure to support national and regional connectivity.
Urban vs. Regional Development: Investments are balanced between improving urban transit systems (e.g., BRT, Morogoro Road) and expanding rural road networks (e.g., Komanga-Kasinde LOT2).
2. Cost Efficiency and Project Complexity
High Costs for Specialized Projects:
J.P. Magufuli Bridge (~185.19 Billion TZS/km) showcases the cost-intensive nature of engineering projects requiring advanced technology and materials.
Urban projects like BRT also exhibit higher costs due to land acquisition and urban constraints.
Economies of Scale in Road Projects: Projects like Komanga-Kasinde LOT2 and Kasinde-Mpanda LOT3 (~1.24 Billion TZS/km) demonstrate efficiency in rural road construction.
3. Timeline and Budget Focus
Peak Signing Period (2017–2020): Most projects were signed during this period, signaling:
A deliberate push for infrastructure growth.
Alignment with Tanzania’s economic development plans, such as industrialization and regional trade facilitation.
Budget Allocation Concentration: The top 10 projects account for 56.6% of the total budget, reflecting a focus on a few, impactful developments rather than dispersing resources.
4. Geographic Distribution
Equitable Development: Projects are geographically distributed to ensure all regions benefit:
Trade and Logistics: Projects like Ihumwa Dry Port – Matumbulu and Nala – Veyula – Mtumba enhance logistics, supporting Tanzania as a trade hub for East Africa.
Urban Transit: BRT projects reduce urban congestion, enabling more efficient movement of people and goods.
Regional Integration: Roads connecting rural areas (e.g., Kasinde-Mpanda) improve market access for farmers and small businesses.
TANROADS is executing a deliberate strategy to prioritize impactful, high-value projects that address both urban and rural needs. By focusing on cost efficiency, geographic inclusivity, and economic relevance, these projects significantly enhance Tanzania’s infrastructure, trade capacity, and economic growth potential.
Top 10 TANROADS Projects by Contract Value (2015–2021):
Rank
Project Name
Contract Value (Billion TZS)
Signing Date
Length (km)
Cost per km (Billion TZS)
Key Highlights
1
J.P. Magufuli Bridge
592.609
29/07/2019
3.20
185.19
Most expensive project, critical national transport link.
Urban road widening to reduce congestion and enhance trade flow.
6
Komanga-Kasinde LOT2
140.000
12/11/2017
112.80
1.24
Efficient road project supporting rural regions.
7
Kasinde-Mpanda LOT3
133.800
12/11/2017
108.00
1.24
Complements Komanga-Kasinde project to strengthen connectivity.
8
LOT 2: Ihumwa Dry Port – Matumbulu – Nala
120.860
14/02/2020
60.00
2.01
Improves logistics for trade efficiency.
9
Moronga-Makete LOT2
110.446
06/02/2017
53.50
2.06
Supports regional transport connectivity.
10
LOT 1: Nala – Veyula – Mtumba – Ihumwa
100.840
10/07/2020
52.30
1.93
Facilitates transport and logistics efficiency.
Key Observations:
Highest Value: J.P. Magufuli Bridge dominates at 592.609 Billion TZS with the highest cost per km.
Most Cost-Efficient: Komanga-Kasinde LOT2 and Kasinde-Mpanda LOT3, each at 1.24 Billion TZS/km.
Balanced Focus: Mix of urban projects (e.g., BRT, Morogoro Road) and rural road networks to boost connectivity and trade.
Between 2015 and 2021, TANROADS has strategically increased infrastructure investments, focusing on high-value projects to drive Tanzania's economic growth. Over this period, the total investment reached 3,264.173 Billion TZS, with a peak average project value of 119.40 Billion TZS per project in 2019. In 2021, despite only 4 projects, the average remained high at 81.41 Billion TZS per project, emphasizing a shift toward impactful, large-scale infrastructure that strengthens national and regional connectivity.
Peak Year: The highest average project value was in 2019, highlighting significant investments in high-value infrastructure.
Earlier Projects: Projects before 2015 had much lower average values, reflecting either smaller scopes or older pricing trends.
Consistent Growth: Recent projects (2020–2021) show a steady increase in total project values with relatively fewer but higher-value contracts.
The figures reveals key insights about TANROADS' project trends and priorities over the years:
1. Investment Growth Over Time
Increasing Project Value: The significant jump in total and average project values from earlier years (2015 and before) to recent years highlights growing investment in infrastructure. This may indicate:
Prioritization of large-scale projects.
Increased funding availability or enhanced budget allocation for road infrastructure.
Strategic Focus on High-Value Projects: 2019 was a peak year with the highest average project value, showing TANROADS' focus on impactful projects.
2. Recent Trends (2020–2021)
Fewer Projects, Higher Value: Despite fewer projects in 2021, the average value per project (81.41 Billion TZS) is high, reflecting a shift toward:
Strategic planning for major regional or national connectivity.
Enhanced quality and scope of individual projects.
Funding Efficiency: A reduced number of projects but higher value per project suggests a deliberate focus on impactful and sustainable infrastructure.
3. Earlier Years (2015 and Before)
Smaller Scopes and Budgets: Lower average project values likely indicate:
Smaller-scale or regionally focused road projects.
A phase of laying foundational infrastructure rather than ambitious nationwide connectivity goals.
4. Long-Term Trends
Focus on Key Transport Corridors: Many projects link significant trade hubs or regions, such as:
Kasulu-Manyovu for international trade with Burundi.
Nala-Dry Port, enhancing transport and logistics efficiency in central Tanzania.
Economic Growth Impact: Infrastructure development aligns with Tanzania’s broader economic goals, such as improving trade, reducing transport costs, and enabling regional integration.
What This Means
Economic Development: Increased spending on high-value projects reflects efforts to bolster Tanzania’s economic growth by improving transport and logistics.
Global Investment Attraction: The upward trend in project scope and value may help attract international investors, particularly for Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs).
Strategic Planning: Recent years demonstrate a focus on fewer, well-targeted projects to maximize infrastructure impact.
The top 10 projects by contract value.
Rank
Project Name
Year
Contract Sum (Bil TZS)
1
J.P. Magufuli Bridge
2019
592.609
2
BRT Phase 2 Lot 1
2018
189.400
3
LUSITU-MAWENGI LOT2
2016
159.217
4
USESULE-KOMANGA LOT1
2017
158.800
5
WIDENING OF MOROGORO ROAD (KIMARA –KIBAHA)
2018
140.450
6
KOMANGA KASINDE LOT2
2017
140.000
7
KASINDE-MPANDA LOT3
2017
133.800
8
LOT 2: IHUMWA DRY PORT – MATUMBULU – NALA SECTION
2020
120.860
9
LOT 1: NALA – VEYULA – MTUMBA – IHUMWA DRY PORT SECTION
2020
100.840
10
MORONGA-MAKETE LOT2
2017
110.446
Key observations:
The J.P. Magufuli Bridge is significantly more expensive than any other project
BRT Phase 2 Lot 1 is the second most expensive project
Most of these top 10 projects were signed between 2017-2020
Infrastructure projects (bridges, roads, and transit) dominate the highest-cost projects
Tanzania's banking sector demonstrated robust growth and stability in 2023, with total assets rising by 17.8% to TZS 54,396 billion, driven by increased deposits, borrowings, and retained earnings. Deposits surged by 16.9% to TZS 38,076.5 billion, reflecting heightened public confidence, while pre-tax profits jumped 63.5% to TZS 1,527.9 billion, bolstered by efficient operations and a growing loan portfolio. The sector's Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio improved to 4.4%, indicating stronger credit management, and its liquid assets-to-demand liabilities ratio stood at 28.8%, well above the regulatory minimum. These figures highlight the sector's resilience and its pivotal role in advancing Tanzania’s economic stability and financial inclusion.
1. Asset Growth and Structure
Total assets increased by 17.8% to TZS 54,396.0 billion from TZS 46,159.5 billion in 2022. This was primarily financed by increased deposits, borrowings, and retained earnings.
Asset composition:
Loans, advances, and overdrafts: 58.9% of total assets.
Investments in debt securities: 16.0%.
Cash and balances: 15.3%.
Earning assets accounted for 84.4% of total assets, growing by 20.3% to TZS 45,907.6 billion, highlighting effective utilization of resources in productive sectors.
2. Liabilities and Deposits
Total liabilities grew by 18.1% to TZS 46,316.7 billion.
Deposits increased by 16.9% to TZS 38,076.5 billion, with local currency deposits rising by 19.3% to TZS 24,241.0 billion, reflecting increased public trust in the banking system.
Borrowings rose by 18.5% to TZS 5,531.4 billion, further supporting growth initiatives.
3. Profitability
The sector's pre-tax profits surged by 63.5% to TZS 1,527.9 billion, up from TZS 934.4 billion in 2022.
Return on Assets (ROA) increased to 4.4% from 3.4%, while Return on Equity (ROE) rose to 20.5% from 14.2%, showcasing stronger earnings performance.
4. Capital Adequacy
Core capital adequacy ratio: 17.7% (down slightly from 17.9% in 2022 but above the 10% minimum regulatory requirement).
Total capital adequacy ratio: 18.4%, meeting the 12% regulatory threshold. These metrics indicate strong shock-absorbing capacity.
5. Asset Quality
The Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio improved to 4.4% from 5.8%, staying within the desired benchmark of less than 5%. This reflects improved credit risk management and effective regulatory measures.
6. Liquidity
Liquid assets to demand liabilities ratio: 28.8%, well above the regulatory minimum of 20%.
Gross loans to total deposits ratio rose to 92.5%, indicating effective deposit utilization for loan issuance.
7. Outreach and Inclusion
The number of bank branches increased to 1,011 (from 987), and banking agents grew by 41.1% to 106,176.
Agent banking facilitated deposits worth TZS 74,914.4 billion, reflecting a 21% growth, underscoring enhanced accessibility and inclusion.
Key Takeaways:
The banking sector's strong asset growth, improved profitability, better asset quality, and enhanced financial inclusion initiatives underscore its pivotal role in Tanzania's economic development. Its resilience and compliance with regulatory requirements demonstrate preparedness to sustain internal and external economic pressures.
The performance of Tanzania's banking sector in 2023 with important insights about its growth, stability, and evolving role in the economy:
1. Growth and Resilience
The sector has shown significant growth, with total assets rising by 17.8% to TZS 54,396 billion, reflecting robust expansion in banking activities.
Profitability surged, with pre-tax profits growing by 63.5%, showcasing improved operational efficiency and revenue growth.
The ability to absorb shocks is evident in strong capital adequacy ratios (17.7% core capital and 18.4% total capital), both well above regulatory requirements.
2. Improved Credit and Risk Management
The reduction in the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio to 4.4% (from 5.8%) highlights better loan repayment and enhanced credit risk management practices.
Growth in earning assets (20.3%) indicates banks' continued focus on deploying resources in productive economic sectors.
3. Enhanced Financial Inclusion
Banking access expanded significantly, with 41.1% growth in banking agents (now at 106,176) and a rise in branches to 1,011.
Deposit transactions through agent banking increased by 21%, totaling TZS 74,914.4 billion, which demonstrates broader outreach, particularly to underserved populations.
4. Confidence in the Banking System
The 16.9% growth in deposits to TZS 38,076.5 billion, driven by local currency deposits, indicates increasing public trust and effective deposit mobilization strategies by banks.
Liquidity levels remained robust, with the liquid assets-to-demand liabilities ratio at 28.8%, well above the regulatory minimum of 20%, ensuring banks can meet obligations.
5. Challenges and Opportunities
Although capital adequacy ratios slightly declined, they remain comfortably above regulatory thresholds, suggesting room for further loan growth and asset expansion.
The high loan-to-deposit ratio (92.5%) reflects strong credit expansion but may warrant careful monitoring to avoid over-leveraging.
What It Tells Overall:
The 2023 performance highlights that Tanzania's banking sector is a critical driver of economic growth and stability. It is effectively balancing profitability with financial inclusion and risk management. The sector's resilience amid global and domestic challenges demonstrates its readiness to support Tanzania's economic goals while adapting to evolving market needs.
The National Bureau of Statistics report on Tanzania's Industrial Production Index (IIP) for Q2 2024 reveals a promising increase of 6% in overall industrial production from Q1 to Q2, moving the index from 98.9 to 104.9. This growth is largely driven by a 7.6% rise in the manufacturing sector, with notable production surges in tobacco products (up 56.9%), rubber and plastics (up 27.8%), and pharmaceuticals (up 10.2%). Compared to Q2 2023, the IIP shows a modest year-over-year increase of 0.4%, indicating long-term stability with mixed results across sectors. While water supply and waste management saw a 4.8% increase, declines in mining (-2.1%) and electricity supply (-2.5%) highlight areas that may need strategic support to sustain Tanzania’s industrial growth.
Overall Industrial Production Index:
The overall IIP rose from 98.9 in Q1 2024 to 104.9 in Q2 2024, a 6% increase.
Compared to Q2 2023 (104.5), there was a modest year-over-year increase of 0.4%.
Sectoral Performance:
Manufacturing: Increased by 7.6% from Q1 to Q2 2024. Within this sector, notable increases included:
Tobacco products: 56.9% increase
Rubber and plastics: 27.8% increase
Pharmaceuticals: 10.2% increase
Motor vehicles: 9.4% increase
Mining and Quarrying: Increased by 5.0% from Q1 to Q2 2024.
Electricity, Gas, Steam, and Air Conditioning: Increased by 1.4%.
Water Supply and Waste Management: Increased by 1.6%.
Declines in Specific Manufacturing Areas:
Manufacture of electrical equipment dropped by 15.0%.
Printing and reproduction of media decreased by 8.2%.
Manufacture of wood products decreased by 7.8%.
Long-term Trends (Comparing Q2 2023 to Q2 2024):
Water supply and waste management showed a 4.8% increase.
Manufacturing showed a 2.1% increase.
In contrast, electricity, gas, and steam supply decreased by 2.5%, and mining and quarrying declined by 2.1%.
Tanzania's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for Q2 2024 provides a valuable snapshot of the country’s industrial performance, highlighting areas of growth and decline.
Overall Industrial Growth:
The 6% increase from Q1 to Q2 2024 signals positive growth and resilience in Tanzania's industrial sector, suggesting that industrial activities are rebounding or accelerating post-pandemic and amidst global challenges.
However, the modest year-over-year growth of 0.4% from Q2 2023 indicates that while there’s short-term improvement, longer-term growth has been slower, which could reflect challenges or fluctuations in industrial output over the past year.
Manufacturing as a Key Growth Driver:
Manufacturing recorded the highest growth (7.6% from Q1 to Q2 2024), pointing to this sector as a leading driver of industrial expansion. Significant increases in specific manufacturing areas (e.g., tobacco, rubber, and pharmaceuticals) may reflect both increased domestic demand and potential export opportunities.
High growth in pharmaceuticals and plastics could also indicate shifts in production focus, possibly due to changes in health sector demands and consumer goods preferences.
Mixed Performance Across Sub-sectors:
Some areas, like water supply and waste management, showed steady growth, while mining and electricity saw minor increases. These improvements reflect stability in essential service sectors, which are less volatile and respond to consistent demand.
However, declines in areas like electrical equipment and printing signal potential issues, such as reduced demand or production challenges in those areas, possibly influenced by shifts in technology or reduced investment.
Long-term Stability with Caution:
The comparison of Q2 2024 to Q2 2023 shows that while some manufacturing activities are growing, sectors like electricity, mining, and certain manufacturing sub-sectors (e.g., electrical equipment) are experiencing declines. This suggests potential structural challenges, like limited investment in infrastructure or energy, which might need policy attention for sustainable growth.
Hence, this research reveals a robust industrial recovery in the short term, driven by manufacturing, but also shows areas of concern in specific sub-sectors. It signals that targeted policies could help stabilize and grow underperforming areas, ensuring a more balanced industrial expansion for Tanzania.