Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd

| Economic Research Centre

Tax policies significantly influence Tanzania’s investment climate, affecting both local and foreign investors. While taxation is crucial for government revenue, an overly complex and high tax regime can discourage investments, limit capital inflows, and slow economic growth. This article explores how tax laws shape investment trends in Tanzania, presenting key figures, challenges, and potential solutions.

Tanzania’s Tax System and Investment Trends

1. Corporate Tax Rates and Regional Comparison

Tanzania imposes a 30% corporate tax rate on resident companies, one of the highest in East Africa. In contrast:

The high tax rate discourages investments, as seen in 2022 when Tanzania attracted only $922 million in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), compared to Kenya’s $2 billion and Ethiopia’s $3.1 billion.

2. Tax Compliance and Bureaucracy

Tanzania ranks 163rd out of 190 countries in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index (2020), reflecting long tax compliance procedures. Businesses spend an average of 240 hours per year filing tax documents, compared to 150 hours in Rwanda.

A survey conducted by TICGL in 2025 revealed:

3. Multiple Taxation and VAT Burden

Investors in Tanzania face multiple layers of taxation, including:

Tanzania’s VAT refund delays are a significant issue, with pending refunds amounting to TSh 1.4–1.5 trillion ($650 million) in 2025. Some businesses wait over 12 months for VAT refunds, severely affecting cash flow and expansion plans.

4. Case Studies: How Taxes Affect Investors

Mining Industry: Acacia Mining’s $190 Billion Tax Dispute

Telecommunications: Vodacom Tanzania’s $2.5 Million Tax Case

Tourism Sector: Serena Hotels’ VAT Refund Issues

Recommendations for a Better Investment Climate

  1. Lower Corporate Tax to 25%
    • Aligning with Kenya and Ethiopia could increase Tanzania’s FDI inflows.
  2. Simplify Tax Compliance
    • Introduce a one-stop tax portal to reduce paperwork and compliance time.
  3. Reduce VAT to 16%
    • This would enhance competitiveness and reduce operational costs for businesses.
  4. Automate VAT Refund Processing
    • Ensuring refunds are processed within 30 days would improve business cash flow.
  5. Introduce a 5-Year Tax Stability Framework
    • This would provide predictability and confidence for long-term investors.

Conclusion

Tanzania's current tax policies present significant barriers to investment. High corporate taxes, multiple taxation, VAT refund delays, and unpredictable policy changes discourage both local and foreign investors. If key reforms are implemented—such as lowering tax rates, simplifying compliance, and improving tax administration—Tanzania could increase FDI by 10-15% over the next five years, boosting economic growth and job creation.

The impact of tax laws on investments and investors in TanzaniaDownload

The Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) demonstrated exceptional performance in the first half of the 2024/2025 fiscal year, consistently exceeding revenue targets with efficiency rates above 100% and achieving year-on-year growth ranging from 15% to 23.6%. With total collections peaking at TZS 3.587 trillion in December 2024, driven by strengthened economic activities and improved tax compliance, TRA's strategic initiatives have set a solid foundation for continued growth. Forecasts for January–June 2025 project sustained revenue momentum, reinforcing TRA's pivotal role in enhancing Tanzania’s fiscal stability and economic development.

1. Overview of Monthly Performance

The table shows the revenue collections compared to targets and highlights both efficiency (how much was collected compared to the target) and growth (how much collections increased compared to the previous year).

MonthCollections 2023/2024 (TZS Trillion)Target 2024/2025 (TZS Trillion)Collections 2024/2025 (TZS Trillion)Efficiency (%)Growth (%)
July1.9392.2472.347104.4521.04
August2.0112.2952.421105.4920.39
September2.6252.8823.019104.7515.01
October2.1482.4712.655107.4523.60
November2.1432.4172.499103.3916.61
December3.0503.4653.587103.5217.61

2. Key Observations

A. Efficiency (Target Achievement)

B. Growth (Year-on-Year Increase)

3. Breakdown of Key Drivers

  1. Revenue Growth Factors
    • Improved economic activity during the year, particularly in key sectors like trade and services.
    • Strengthened tax administration and enforcement measures by TRA.
  2. Efficiency in Exceeding Targets
    • Enhanced compliance through digital tax systems (e.g., EFDs).
    • Improved taxpayer education and monitoring contributed to high revenue performance.
  3. Month-on-Month Trends
    • The largest revenue collection occurred in December 2024 (TZS 3.587 trillion), likely due to increased economic activity during the holiday season.
    • July 2024 saw a strong start with significant growth and efficiency, setting the pace for subsequent months.

4. Highlights and Takeaways

Forecast for revenue collections by the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) for the next six months (January–June 2025), based on the average growth rate observed between July and December 2024/2025:

MonthForecasted Collections (TZS Trillion)
January3.97
February4.40
March4.86
April5.39
May5.96
June6.60

Key Observations:

  1. January 2025: Forecasted collections are TZS 3.97 trillion, an increase from December 2024 due to consistent growth momentum.
  2. June 2025: Collections are projected to reach TZS 6.60 trillion, reflecting significant month-on-month growth.
  3. Trend: Revenue is expected to grow steadily due to sustained improvements in tax compliance and economic activities.

Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) for July–December 2024/2025 and the forecast for January–June 2025 offers key insights into the efficiency, growth, and trends of revenue collections:

1. Efficiency (Target Achievement)

2. Growth (Year-on-Year Comparison)

3. Seasonal Trends and Peaks

4. Key Drivers Behind Performance

5. Forecast for January–June 2025

6. Overall Insights

  1. Consistency in Exceeding Targets: TRA’s ability to consistently exceed revenue targets demonstrates strong institutional efficiency.
  2. Sustained Growth: Growth rates of 15–23.6% suggest resilience in economic activities despite potential challenges.
  3. Strategic Focus: December’s peak collections and the upward forecast highlight the importance of seasonal and economic patterns in TRA’s strategies.
  4. Future Prospects: The optimistic forecast for January–June 2025 underscores TRA's capability to leverage momentum and maintain revenue collection growth.

Digital loans have experienced significant growth in Tanzania, driven by mobile technology, increased phone ownership, and partnerships between banks, microfinance institutions, and mobile network operators (MNOs).

Key Statistics

  1. Total Number of Digital Loan Accounts:
    • The number of digital loan accounts in Tanzania skyrocketed by 198% from 32.09 million in 2022 to 95.89 million in 2023.
    • This dramatic increase highlights a growing trend of digital borrowing, especially among low-income and rural populations who find traditional banking inaccessible.
  2. Amount of Digital Credit Issued:
    • The total amount of digital credit issued in Tanzania surged from TZS 26.79 billion in 2022 to TZS 126.03 billion in 2023, marking a 370% increase.
    • This indicates that while the number of loans has grown significantly, the total value of loans issued has also risen, suggesting an increasing demand for larger loans.
  3. Demographic Trends:
    • Men represent 66.5% of all digital loan borrowers, while women account for 33.5%. However, the number of women accessing digital loans is steadily increasing, indicating greater financial empowerment among women.
    • Youth and young adults (primarily those aged 18–35) make up a large proportion of digital loan borrowers, as they are more likely to use mobile phones and digital financial services.
  4. Active Mobile Money Accounts:
    • The increase in mobile money accounts (from 38.34 million in 2022 to 51.72 million in 2023) has contributed to the growth of digital loan services, as digital loan products are typically linked to mobile wallets.
    • The growth in mobile money accounts and the availability of National Identification Numbers (NINs) have made it easier for more people to access mobile financial services.

Key Drivers of Growth

  1. Technology and Mobile Penetration:
    • The expansion of 3G and 4G network coverage and the increased availability of smartphones have made digital loans more accessible to Tanzanians, particularly in rural areas.
    • The ease of instant loans via mobile platforms has allowed users to access credit without needing a bank account or physical collateral.
  2. Partnerships between Banks and MNOs:
    • Many financial institutions have partnered with mobile network operators (MNOs) to offer digital loans. These partnerships leverage MNOs' extensive mobile money networks, enabling quicker disbursement and repayment of loans.
    • Artificial Intelligence (AI) is used to assess the creditworthiness of borrowers, allowing for faster loan approval processes based on transaction history and mobile phone usage.
  3. Government Support:
    • Regulatory changes by the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) and other financial authorities have helped create a favorable environment for digital lending, supporting the development of mobile loan platforms and enhancing financial inclusion.

Impact of Digital Loans

  1. Financial Inclusion:
    • Digital loans have significantly improved financial inclusion by providing access to credit for underserved populations, particularly in rural areas where traditional banks have limited reach.
    • The increased access to instant loans has enabled individuals to meet urgent financial needs, such as healthcare, education, or emergency expenses.
  2. Economic Growth:
    • By giving small businesses and individuals access to capital, digital loans contribute to economic activity, especially for MSMEs and entrepreneurs who may otherwise struggle to access credit from traditional financial institutions.

Challenges and Opportunities

  1. Challenges:
    • Despite their growth, digital loans often carry high-interest rates, which can burden borrowers, especially those in low-income segments.
    • There is also concern over the sustainability of digital lending models, as some borrowers may struggle to repay loans on time, leading to over-indebtedness.
  2. Opportunities:
    • The growth of digital credit presents opportunities for further product innovation in micro-lending, especially targeting women and youth.
    • There is potential for regulatory improvements to balance the rapid growth of digital lending with consumer protection to ensure long-term stability and sustainability.

Conclusion

The surge in digital loans in Tanzania, with a 198% increase in loan accounts and a 370% rise in the value of loans, demonstrates the country's rapid adoption of mobile financial services. While digital loans have opened up new opportunities for financial inclusion, they also present challenges related to affordability and long-term sustainability. Continued innovation, coupled with regulatory oversight, will be key to maximizing the benefits of digital lending in Tanzania's evolving financial landscape.

Between 2019 and 2023, Tanzania's financial landscape experienced remarkable growth, with total financial access points increasing by 130%, from 609,956 in 2019 to 1,402,609 in 2023. This expansion was driven by a 116% rise in mobile money agents (from 573,444 to 1,240,106) and a 365% growth in bank agents (from 28,358 to 106,176). The country’s financial inclusion rate improved from 65% in 2017 to 76% in 2023, showcasing the success of digital innovations and policy reforms under the National Financial Inclusion Framework. This growth underscores Tanzania's commitment to bridging the financial access gap, particularly in underserved areas.

Financial Services Providers Landscape in Tanzania

Tanzania's financial services landscape is diverse and rapidly growing, driven by digital innovations and regulatory improvements. The sector comprises banking institutions, microfinance, insurance, capital markets, and payment service providers:

Access to Financial Services

Usage of Financial Services

Growth Drivers

  1. Digital Financial Services: The rise of mobile money and online platforms improved accessibility and efficiency.
  2. Policy Frameworks: The National Financial Inclusion Framework (2023-2028) prioritized underserved populations.
  3. Regulatory Enhancements: New guidelines fostered innovations, such as digital insurance platforms and microfinance formalization.
  4. Government Programs: Local Government Authority loans provided TZS 24.02 billion to women and TZS 19.92 billion to youth in 2023.

Total Number of Financial Access Points in Tanzania (2019–2023)

The number of financial access points in Tanzania grew significantly between 2019 and 2023, driven by expansion across banking, microfinance, insurance, and payment systems:

Overall Growth

Yearly Breakdown of Access Points

YearTotal Financial Access PointsAnnual Growth (%)
2019609,956-
2020798,79030.97%
2021973,24521.85%
20221,215,03324.84%
20231,402,60915.44%

Sector-wise Contribution

  1. Banking Services:
    • Grew from 29,371 access points in 2019 to 107,238 in 2023.
    • Bank agents contributed most to this increase, quadrupling during the period.
  2. Microfinance Services:
    • Increased from 6,241 access points in 2019 to 53,371 in 2023, driven by the formalization of Community Microfinance Groups (CMGs).
  3. Insurance Services:
    • Access points rose from 795 in 2019 to 1,495 in 2023, a 88% growth, fueled by digital platforms and bancassurance agents.
  4. Payment Systems (Non-Bank):
    • Dominated the landscape, growing from 573,444 access points in 2019 to 1,240,106 in 2023, representing 116% growth.
    • Mobile money agents were the largest contributors.
  5. Capital Markets Services:
    • Modest growth from 91 access points in 2019 to 380 in 2023, reflecting a focus on investment advisory and fund management.
  6. Social Security Services:
    • Grew slightly from 14 access points in 2019 to 19 in 2023, limited by the niche nature of this sector.

Key Drivers of Growth

Implications

The steady increase in financial access points reflects Tanzania's progress in financial inclusion, ensuring more adults live within a 5 km radius of financial services (89% in 2023, up from 86% in 2017).

Insights from Tanzania's Financial Services Providers Landscape (2023) and Financial Access Points (2019–2023)

1. Strong Progress in Financial Inclusion

The rapid growth in financial access points and the diversification of financial service providers illustrate Tanzania's consistent strides in financial inclusion. The financial inclusion rate increased from 65% in 2017 to 76% in 2023, demonstrating that more Tanzanians are accessing formal financial services.

2. Dominance of Digital Financial Services

3. Role of Policy and Regulation

4. Significant Growth in Banking Services

5. Increased Focus on Underserved Segments

6. Opportunities in Microfinance and Capital Markets

7. Persistent Challenges

8. Economic and Social Impacts

Key Takeaways

  1. Growth with Innovation: The financial services landscape in Tanzania is becoming increasingly diversified, with digital financial services leading the charge.
  2. Policy as a Catalyst: The alignment of policy, innovation, and private-sector initiatives ensures sustainable growth in financial inclusion.
  3. Targeted Efforts are Essential: Continued focus on underserved segments like rural populations and MSMEs is crucial for equitable economic growth.

In September 2024, Tanzania's bank lending rate rose slightly to 12.92% from 12.79% in August, reflecting cautious adjustments in monetary policy. This rate, slightly below the long-term average of 13.09%, highlights the Bank of Tanzania's efforts to manage inflation and stabilize the economy while maintaining a moderately high cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers.

1. Current Trends (2024)

2. Historical Averages (2003-2024)

3. Extreme Values

4. Insights from Changes

5. Implications for Borrowers and Businesses

The bank lending rate data for Tanzania tells several important economic and monetary policy stories:

1. Monetary Policy Trends

2. Credit Environment

3. Historical Context

4. Implications for Economic Growth

5. Signals to Stakeholders

As of September 2024, Tanzania's total external debt reached USD 32.89 billion, accounting for 73% of the country’s total national debt. The central government held the largest share of external debt at USD 25.43 billion (78.1%), with funds directed toward critical sectors like transport (21.5%) and social welfare (20.8%). Domestically, the government owed TZS 32.62 trillion, with Treasury bonds dominating at 78.9%. Despite strategic investments, reliance on the USD (67.4% of external debt) and limited funding for agriculture (5.1%) and tourism (1.6%) pose challenges to debt sustainability and inclusive economic growth.

1. External Debt

Key Figures

Debt Stock by Borrowers

Use of Funds (Disbursed Outstanding Debt)

Currency Composition

2. Internal (Domestic) Debt

Key Figures

Domestic Debt by Creditor

Insights

  1. Debt Composition: External debt forms a significant majority (73%), exposing the economy to foreign exchange risks, especially given the dominance of USD (67.4%).
  2. Focus Areas of Debt Use: Prioritization of transport, telecommunications, social services, and energy aligns with Tanzania's development goals, though agriculture and tourism receive relatively smaller allocations.
  3. Domestic Financing: Treasury bonds dominate, with commercial banks and pension funds as major participants, reflecting a stable domestic borrowing market.

The key insights into Tanzania's fiscal and economic dynamics:

1. Heavy Reliance on External Debt

2. Focused Use of Funds

3. Dominance of Treasury Bonds in Domestic Debt

4. Key Domestic Creditors

5. Debt Sustainability and Macro Risks

Key Messages

TANROADS’ top 10 infrastructure projects, valued at 1,846.422 Billion TZS, highlight a strategic focus on transformative investments between 2015 and 2021. The J.P. Magufuli Bridge, the most expensive project at 592.609 Billion TZS, underscores the prioritization of specialized, high-impact infrastructure. While projects like BRT Phase 2 Lot 1 focus on urban mobility with a cost of 189.4 Billion TZS, rural connectivity is efficiently addressed through cost-effective roadworks such as Komanga-Kasinde LOT2 and Kasinde-Mpanda LOT3, averaging just 1.24 Billion TZS/km. These investments reflect TANROADS’ commitment to improving transport, trade, and regional integration across Tanzania.

1. J.P. Magufuli Bridge

2. BRT Phase 2 Lot 1

3. Lusitu-Mawengi LOT2

4. Usesule-Komanga LOT1

5. Widening of Morogoro Road (Kimara–Kibaha)

6. Komanga-Kasinde LOT2

7. Kasinde-Mpanda LOT3

8. LOT 2: Ihumwa Dry Port – Matumbulu – Nala Section

9. Moronga-Makete LOT2

10. LOT 1: Nala – Veyula – Mtumba – Ihumwa Dry Port Section

Key Observations and Trends

1. Cost Distribution

2. Timeline Pattern

3. Project Types

4. Cost Efficiency

5. Geographic Distribution

The analysis of the top 10 TANROADS projects provides several insights into Tanzania's infrastructure priorities and investment strategy:

1. Strategic Investment Priorities

2. Cost Efficiency and Project Complexity

3. Timeline and Budget Focus

4. Geographic Distribution

5. Infrastructure and Economic Growth Link

TANROADS is executing a deliberate strategy to prioritize impactful, high-value projects that address both urban and rural needs. By focusing on cost efficiency, geographic inclusivity, and economic relevance, these projects significantly enhance Tanzania’s infrastructure, trade capacity, and economic growth potential.

Top 10 TANROADS Projects by Contract Value (2015–2021):

RankProject NameContract Value (Billion TZS)Signing DateLength (km)Cost per km (Billion TZS)Key Highlights
1J.P. Magufuli Bridge592.60929/07/20193.20185.19Most expensive project, critical national transport link.
2BRT Phase 2 Lot 1189.40010/12/201820.309.33Urban transit infrastructure for Dar es Salaam.
3Lusitu-Mawengi LOT2159.21722/08/201650.003.18Enhances regional connectivity.
4Usesule-Komanga LOT1158.80012/11/2017117.671.35Large-scale, cost-efficient rural connectivity project.
5Widening of Morogoro Road (Kimara–Kibaha)140.45013/07/201819.207.32Urban road widening to reduce congestion and enhance trade flow.
6Komanga-Kasinde LOT2140.00012/11/2017112.801.24Efficient road project supporting rural regions.
7Kasinde-Mpanda LOT3133.80012/11/2017108.001.24Complements Komanga-Kasinde project to strengthen connectivity.
8LOT 2: Ihumwa Dry Port – Matumbulu – Nala120.86014/02/202060.002.01Improves logistics for trade efficiency.
9Moronga-Makete LOT2110.44606/02/201753.502.06Supports regional transport connectivity.
10LOT 1: Nala – Veyula – Mtumba – Ihumwa100.84010/07/202052.301.93Facilitates transport and logistics efficiency.

Key Observations:

Between 2015 and 2021, TANROADS has strategically increased infrastructure investments, focusing on high-value projects to drive Tanzania's economic growth. Over this period, the total investment reached 3,264.173 Billion TZS, with a peak average project value of 119.40 Billion TZS per project in 2019. In 2021, despite only 4 projects, the average remained high at 81.41 Billion TZS per project, emphasizing a shift toward impactful, large-scale infrastructure that strengthens national and regional connectivity.

Yearly Breakdown

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015 and Earlier

Insights

  1. Peak Year: The highest average project value was in 2019, highlighting significant investments in high-value infrastructure.
  2. Earlier Projects: Projects before 2015 had much lower average values, reflecting either smaller scopes or older pricing trends.
  3. Consistent Growth: Recent projects (2020–2021) show a steady increase in total project values with relatively fewer but higher-value contracts.

The figures reveals key insights about TANROADS' project trends and priorities over the years:

1. Investment Growth Over Time

2. Recent Trends (2020–2021)

3. Earlier Years (2015 and Before)

4. Long-Term Trends

What This Means

The top 10 projects by contract value.

RankProject NameYearContract Sum (Bil TZS)
1J.P. Magufuli Bridge2019592.609
2BRT Phase 2 Lot 12018189.400
3LUSITU-MAWENGI LOT22016159.217
4USESULE-KOMANGA LOT12017158.800
5WIDENING OF MOROGORO ROAD (KIMARA –KIBAHA)2018140.450
6KOMANGA KASINDE LOT22017140.000
7KASINDE-MPANDA LOT32017133.800
8LOT 2: IHUMWA DRY PORT – MATUMBULU – NALA SECTION2020120.860
9LOT 1: NALA – VEYULA – MTUMBA – IHUMWA DRY PORT SECTION2020100.840
10MORONGA-MAKETE LOT22017110.446

Key observations:

Tanzania's banking sector demonstrated robust growth and stability in 2023, with total assets rising by 17.8% to TZS 54,396 billion, driven by increased deposits, borrowings, and retained earnings. Deposits surged by 16.9% to TZS 38,076.5 billion, reflecting heightened public confidence, while pre-tax profits jumped 63.5% to TZS 1,527.9 billion, bolstered by efficient operations and a growing loan portfolio. The sector's Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio improved to 4.4%, indicating stronger credit management, and its liquid assets-to-demand liabilities ratio stood at 28.8%, well above the regulatory minimum. These figures highlight the sector's resilience and its pivotal role in advancing Tanzania’s economic stability and financial inclusion.

1. Asset Growth and Structure

2. Liabilities and Deposits

3. Profitability

4. Capital Adequacy

5. Asset Quality

6. Liquidity

7. Outreach and Inclusion

Key Takeaways:

The banking sector's strong asset growth, improved profitability, better asset quality, and enhanced financial inclusion initiatives underscore its pivotal role in Tanzania's economic development. Its resilience and compliance with regulatory requirements demonstrate preparedness to sustain internal and external economic pressures.

The performance of Tanzania's banking sector in 2023 with important insights about its growth, stability, and evolving role in the economy:

1. Growth and Resilience

2. Improved Credit and Risk Management

3. Enhanced Financial Inclusion

4. Confidence in the Banking System

5. Challenges and Opportunities

What It Tells Overall:

The 2023 performance highlights that Tanzania's banking sector is a critical driver of economic growth and stability. It is effectively balancing profitability with financial inclusion and risk management. The sector's resilience amid global and domestic challenges demonstrates its readiness to support Tanzania's economic goals while adapting to evolving market needs.

The National Bureau of Statistics report on Tanzania's Industrial Production Index (IIP) for Q2 2024 reveals a promising increase of 6% in overall industrial production from Q1 to Q2, moving the index from 98.9 to 104.9. This growth is largely driven by a 7.6% rise in the manufacturing sector, with notable production surges in tobacco products (up 56.9%), rubber and plastics (up 27.8%), and pharmaceuticals (up 10.2%). Compared to Q2 2023, the IIP shows a modest year-over-year increase of 0.4%, indicating long-term stability with mixed results across sectors. While water supply and waste management saw a 4.8% increase, declines in mining (-2.1%) and electricity supply (-2.5%) highlight areas that may need strategic support to sustain Tanzania’s industrial growth.

  1. Overall Industrial Production Index:
    • The overall IIP rose from 98.9 in Q1 2024 to 104.9 in Q2 2024, a 6% increase.
    • Compared to Q2 2023 (104.5), there was a modest year-over-year increase of 0.4%.
  2. Sectoral Performance:
    • Manufacturing: Increased by 7.6% from Q1 to Q2 2024. Within this sector, notable increases included:
      • Tobacco products: 56.9% increase
      • Rubber and plastics: 27.8% increase
      • Pharmaceuticals: 10.2% increase
      • Motor vehicles: 9.4% increase
    • Mining and Quarrying: Increased by 5.0% from Q1 to Q2 2024.
    • Electricity, Gas, Steam, and Air Conditioning: Increased by 1.4%.
    • Water Supply and Waste Management: Increased by 1.6%.
  3. Declines in Specific Manufacturing Areas:
    • Manufacture of electrical equipment dropped by 15.0%.
    • Printing and reproduction of media decreased by 8.2%.
    • Manufacture of wood products decreased by 7.8%.
  4. Long-term Trends (Comparing Q2 2023 to Q2 2024):
    • Water supply and waste management showed a 4.8% increase.
    • Manufacturing showed a 2.1% increase.
    • In contrast, electricity, gas, and steam supply decreased by 2.5%, and mining and quarrying declined by 2.1%.

Tanzania's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for Q2 2024 provides a valuable snapshot of the country’s industrial performance, highlighting areas of growth and decline.

  1. Overall Industrial Growth:
    • The 6% increase from Q1 to Q2 2024 signals positive growth and resilience in Tanzania's industrial sector, suggesting that industrial activities are rebounding or accelerating post-pandemic and amidst global challenges.
    • However, the modest year-over-year growth of 0.4% from Q2 2023 indicates that while there’s short-term improvement, longer-term growth has been slower, which could reflect challenges or fluctuations in industrial output over the past year.
  2. Manufacturing as a Key Growth Driver:
    • Manufacturing recorded the highest growth (7.6% from Q1 to Q2 2024), pointing to this sector as a leading driver of industrial expansion. Significant increases in specific manufacturing areas (e.g., tobacco, rubber, and pharmaceuticals) may reflect both increased domestic demand and potential export opportunities.
    • High growth in pharmaceuticals and plastics could also indicate shifts in production focus, possibly due to changes in health sector demands and consumer goods preferences.
  3. Mixed Performance Across Sub-sectors:
    • Some areas, like water supply and waste management, showed steady growth, while mining and electricity saw minor increases. These improvements reflect stability in essential service sectors, which are less volatile and respond to consistent demand.
    • However, declines in areas like electrical equipment and printing signal potential issues, such as reduced demand or production challenges in those areas, possibly influenced by shifts in technology or reduced investment.
  4. Long-term Stability with Caution:
    • The comparison of Q2 2024 to Q2 2023 shows that while some manufacturing activities are growing, sectors like electricity, mining, and certain manufacturing sub-sectors (e.g., electrical equipment) are experiencing declines. This suggests potential structural challenges, like limited investment in infrastructure or energy, which might need policy attention for sustainable growth.

Hence, this research reveals a robust industrial recovery in the short term, driven by manufacturing, but also shows areas of concern in specific sub-sectors. It signals that targeted policies could help stabilize and grow underperforming areas, ensuring a more balanced industrial expansion for Tanzania.

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