TICGL

| Economic Consulting Group

TICGL | Economic Consulting Group

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Tanzania, the GDP from mining in Tanzania reached 2,317,959 TZS million (approximately 0.923 billion USD at an exchange rate of about 2,510 TZS per USD) in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 2,283,791.41 TZS million in the third quarter of 2024. This marks an all-time high, reflecting a year-on-year growth and a significant rise from the historical average of 1,004,540.49 TZS million (2005–2024). The lowest recorded value was 197,832.14 TZS million in Q4 2008, indicating a remarkable increase of over 1,000% in nominal terms over 16 years.

The growth in Tanzania’s mining GDP is driven by:

Tanzania’s Position in Africa

Tanzania’s mining GDP of 2,317,959 TZS million (approx. 0.923 billion USD) in Q4 2024 places it among the top contributors to mining GDP in Africa, though direct comparisons are challenging due to varying currencies and reporting periods. Below is a comparative analysis with key African countries based on the provided data (converted to USD where possible for consistency, using approximate exchange rates as of May 2025):

Ranking in Africa: Tanzania ranks among the top five African countries in mining GDP contribution, likely behind South Africa, Egypt, and Guinea, but ahead of Nigeria, Ghana, and Zambia in USD terms. Its 10.1% GDP share from mining in 2024 is notably high, compared to South Africa (approx. 7–8%) and Nigeria (less than 1%), underscoring mining’s critical role in Tanzania’s economy.

Tanzania’s Position in East Africa

In East Africa, Tanzania is a leader in mining GDP, surpassing regional peers:

East African Ranking: Tanzania is the top contributor to mining GDP in East Africa in Q4 2024, with a value nearly double that of Mozambique, the next closest competitor. Its 10.1% GDP share from mining far exceeds regional averages, where mining typically contributes 1–5% to GDP in countries like Kenya and Uganda. Tanzania’s leadership is further reinforced by its role in regional coal mining and its hosting of the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline, enhancing its extractive sector prominence.

Additional Context and Figures

Conclusion

Tanzania’s mining GDP of 2,317,959 TZS million in Q4 2024 underscores its robust growth, driven by gold, gemstones, and strategic reforms. In Africa, it ranks among the top five mining economies, behind South Africa, Egypt, and Guinea, but ahead of Nigeria and Ghana. In East Africa, Tanzania is the undisputed leader, with a mining GDP nearly double that of Mozambique and significantly higher than Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda. Its 10.1% GDP contribution from mining in 2024, coupled with rising tax revenues and export earnings, cements its position as a regional powerhouse, with potential for further growth in critical minerals and natural gas.

"Key Figures: Tanzania’s Mining Boom and Economic Development, 2008–2024"

CountryMining GDP (Local Currency, Q4 2024 unless noted)Mining GDP (USD, Approx.)Share of National GDP (Mining, %)Key MineralsNotes
Tanzania2,317,959 TZS million0.923 billion10.1% (2024)Gold, Tanzanite, Coal, Nickel, LithiumAll-time high in Q4 2024; historical avg. 1,004,540 TZS million (2005–2024); exports USD 3.6 billion (2020)
South Africa203,866 ZAR million11.5 billion7–8%Gold, Platinum, CoalAfrica’s top mining economy
Egypt252,968 EGP million5.1 billion~5%Phosphate, GoldStrong phosphate production
Guinea42,871 GNF billion (Dec 2023)4.9 billion~30%BauxiteData from 2023; bauxite-driven
Nigeria1,039,318 NGN million0.625 billion<1%Limestone, CoalSmaller mining sector despite large economy
Ghana6,579 GHS million0.446 billion~10%GoldThird-largest gold producer in Africa
Mozambique34,809 MZN million0.545 billion~10%Coal, GasSignificant gas potential
Kenya24,462 KES million0.189 billion~1%Soda Ash, GoldSmall-scale mining
Uganda835 UGX billion0.226 billion~2%Gold, LimestoneLargely artisanal
Rwanda50 RWF billion0.037 billion~2%Tin, TungstenMinimal mining sector
Zambia4,264 ZMW million0.165 billion~15%CopperCopper-dominated

Tanzania Metrics

MetricValueNotes
Historical Low (Mining GDP)197,832 TZS million (Q4 2008)Over 1,000% growth to Q4 2024
Tax Revenue (2023/2024)TZS 753.82 billion (USD 0.3 billion)20.7% increase year-on-year
Employment (2020)310,000 jobs19,356 new jobs by Mar 2024 (97% Tanzanian)
Mineral Exports (2020)USD 3.6 billionGold dominates; coal exports up from USD 23.2M to USD 228.6M
Total Exports (2024)USD 16.1 billion15.1% increase year-on-year

Notes

Momentum for Growth Amid Stability

Tanzania enters 2025/2026 with strong economic momentum, driven by projected GDP growth of 6.1% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, marking steady progress from 5.9% in 2024. Inflation remains contained at 3.2%–3.5%, ensuring price stability for consumers and businesses. Dynamic sectors such as ICT (13.5% growth by 2026), energy (12.0%), and mining (9.3%) are fueling economic transformation, while private sector credit is expanding robustly at over 20% annually. With public debt stabilized at around 46.5% of GDP and strong revenue performance (100%+ of targets), Tanzania is well-positioned for inclusive growth and investment expansion in key industries.

Tanzania Business Report 2025: Growth, Stability & Sectoral Transformation

Tanzania's economy in 2025 is poised on solid footing, building on the steady momentum of previous years. With consistent policy direction and resilience across sectors, the country presents a compelling picture for investors, analysts, and business stakeholders.

Macroeconomic Highlights (2020–2024)

Sectoral Performance (Growth %)

Sector20202024
Agriculture & Agribusiness4.5% → 4.2%
Manufacturing & Industry4.0% → 5.0%
Mining & Extractives6.8% → 8.6%
Energy (Power & Gas)5.5% → 11.0%
ICT & Digital Economy8.5% → 12.5%
Tourism & Hospitality-13.0% → 5.8%
Construction & Real Estate3.0% → 3.9%
Logistics & Transportation5.2% → 6.2%

Top Performers: ICT, Energy, and Mining sectors drove 2024 growth, with ICT growing at a remarkable 12.5% and Energy at 11.0%, bolstered by digital transformation and energy infrastructure investments.

Trade Dynamics

Banking & Credit Sector

Government Fiscal Operations

Indicator2024 Change (%)
Total Revenue+5.6%
Tax Revenue+6.3%
Expenditure+5.7%
Development Spending+8.0%
Budget Deficit-1.8% of GDP

Strong revenue collection (99.5% of target) and controlled deficit spending reflect fiscal discipline amid rising development investment.

Inflation Breakdown

Category2024 Inflation (%)
Food & Beverages2.3%
Transport3.5%
Housing & Utilities2.8%

The inflation structure indicates broad price stability, particularly in essential sectors.

Outlook

Tanzania heads into 2025 with strong momentum in ICT, energy, and industrial growth. Stable inflation, a healthy banking sector, and expanding infrastructure projects offer a conducive environment for private investment and business expansion.

📊 “Tanzania continues to set the pace in East Africa for diversified, resilient economic growth.”

Forecast for Tanzania for the year 2025/2026: Macroeconomic indicators, sectoral performance, trade, banking, fiscal operations, and inflation.

Macroeconomic Forecast: Tanzania (2025–2026)

Indicator20242025 (Est.)2026 (Proj.)
Real GDP Growth (%)5.96.16.4
Headline Inflation (%)3.03.23.5
BoT Policy Rate (%)6.06.06.0
Exchange Rate (TZS/USD, Dec)2,5852,6302,670
Public Debt (% of GDP, Nominal)~46.346.546.7
Public Debt (% of GDP, PV Terms)41.141.241.5
Domestic Revenue Collection (% of Target)99.5100.0100.2
Tax Revenue (% Above Target)2.22.02.5

Sectoral Growth Forecast (% Change)

Sector20242025 (Est.)2026 (Proj.)
Agriculture & Agribusiness4.24.54.8
Manufacturing & Industrialization5.05.55.9
Mining & Extractives8.69.09.3
Energy (Power, Gas, Renewables)11.011.512.0
ICT & Digital Economy12.513.013.5
Tourism & Hospitality5.86.57.0
Construction & Real Estate3.94.24.5
Logistics & Transportation6.26.56.8

Trade Forecast (% Change)

Indicator20242025 (Est.)2026 (Proj.)
Exports of Goods & Services-1.5+6.0+8.5
Imports of Goods & Services+6.4+7.0+7.2

Banking & Credit Forecast (% Growth)

Indicator20242025 (Est.)2026 (Proj.)
Growth in Bank Deposits15.614.514.8
Growth in Bank Lending15.416.016.5
Private Sector Credit Growth21.220.021.5

Government Fiscal Operations (% Change)

Indicator20242025 (Est.)2026 (Proj.)
Total Revenue Growth+5.6+6.0+6.2
Tax Revenue Growth+6.3+6.5+6.8
Total Expenditure Growth+5.7+6.2+6.4
Development Expenditure Growth+8.0+8.5+9.0
Overall Budget Deficit (% of GDP)-1.8-1.9-2.0
Grants (% of Total Revenue)~1.21.11.0

Inflation Breakdown (% Change)

Category20242025 (Est.)2026 (Proj.)
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages2.32.72.9
Transport3.53.63.8
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Fuel2.83.03.3
Overall CPI (Urban & Rural)~3.03.23.5

Stability, Growth & Sectoral Momentum

Tanzania is heading into 2025/2026 with strong and balanced growth, supported by moderate inflation, stable fiscal management, and dynamic performance across key economic sectors.

Macroeconomic Outlook

Sectoral Trends

Trade Dynamics

Financial Sector Confidence

Fiscal Responsibility

Cost of Living

Bottom Line

Tanzania in 2025/2026 is set for strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth, with opportunities in:

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