The Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Manifesto for the 2025 General Election, launched on May 30, 2025, aims to transform Tanzania’s economy by 2030 through ambitious targets like creating 350,000 jobs in Zanzibar, constructing a 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway, and boosting per capita income. Building on past successes, such as a 44% increase in irrigated farmland (681,383 to 983,466 hectares) from 2020–2024 and 304 investment projects worth USD 3.74 billion in Zanzibar from 2015–2020, the manifesto leverages Tanzania’s 5.3% GDP growth in 2023 and projected 6% in 2025. However, with public debt at 41.1% of GDP in 2024 and ambiguous targets like 300,000 units for the blue economy, its realism hinges on addressing funding gaps and structural challenges to achieve inclusive growth.

1. Overview of the CCM Manifesto 2025–2030

The CCM Manifesto, launched on May 30, 2025, outlines nine strategic priorities, including economic transformation, job creation, infrastructure development, and inclusive growth. Key economic targets include:

• Creating 350,000 new jobs in Zanzibar by 2030.
• Increasing per capita income in Zanzibar (in USD, not quantified) and enhancing trade and industrial contributions to GDP.
• Promoting investment through infrastructure projects like the 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway and Bagamoyo port.
• Advancing the blue economy in Zanzibar, targeting a contribution of 300,000 units (jobs or output, unclear) by 2030.
• Training 2,500 cooperative societies in Zanzibar to boost productivity.
• Providing affordable loans, such as two cows per youth annually in Zanzibar.

These targets build on the 2020–2025 manifesto’s achievements, such as increasing irrigated farmland from 681,383 to 983,466 hectares (+44%) and food security from 114% to 128%. The manifesto aligns with NDV 2050’s goal of achieving a USD 1 trillion GDP and USD 12,000 per capita GDP by 2050, requiring over 8% annual growth.

2. Current Economic Situation (as of May 31, 2025)

Tanzania’s economy is a lower-middle-income economy with a GDP per capita of USD 1,149 in 2024. Key economic indicators include:

• GDP Growth: Real GDP grew by 5.3% in 2023, driven by agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, and is projected at 5.6%–5.7% for 2024 and 6% for 2025. Zanzibar’s GDP growth was stronger at 7% in 2024 and is projected at 6.8% in 2025.
• Inflation: Inflation remained low at 3.8% in 2023, projected to decline to 3.3% in 2024 and rise slightly to 3.4% in 2025, supported by stable food and energy prices. In March 2025, inflation was 3.3%, with food inflation at 5.4%.
• Public Debt: Public debt is at 41.1% of GDP in 2024, posing a moderate risk, with foreign exchange shortages noted as a challenge to growth.
• FDI and Trade: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is growing, with 304 investment projects worth USD 3.74 billion in Zanzibar from 2015–2020, creating 16,866 jobs. Recent agreements, such as the Tanzania–Czech Republic Double Taxation Agreement and the Tanzania–UAE Business Council, aim to boost investment in manufacturing and technology.
• Poverty and Employment: The national poverty rate fell from 34.4% in 2007 to 26.4% in 2018, and extreme poverty dropped from 12% to 8%. However, youth unemployment remains a concern, with the private sector employing 70% of youth.

The economy benefits from stable macroeconomic conditions and a reputation for peace, attracting FDI in mining, energy, and tourism. However, challenges include a narrow tax base, foreign exchange shortages, and slow structural transformation, with reliance on low-productivity sectors like subsistence agriculture.

3. Historical Economic Performance

Historical data provides context for assessing the manifesto’s realism:

• GDP Growth: Tanzania has sustained an average GDP growth of 5.5% over the past decade, making it one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. From 2019 to 2020, real GDP grew by 4.8%, reaching USD 89.5 billion. Zanzibar’s per capita income rose from TZS 942,000 in 2010 to TZS 2,323,000 in 2018.
• Job Creation: The 2020–2025 manifesto targeted 8 million new jobs nationally, with industrial jobs increasing from 306,180 in 2020 to 500,000 by 2025. Zanzibar’s 2015–2020 investments created 16,866 jobs.
• Agricultural Transformation: Irrigated land expanded by 44% (681,383 to 983,466 hectares) from 2020–2024, and food security improved from 114% to 128% (Page 13). The 2022/23 budget allocated TZS 954 billion to agriculture, aiming for 10% sectoral growth by 2030.
• Infrastructure: Past achievements include progress on the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and port upgrades, with a goal to increase electricity capacity to 10,000 MW by 2025.

These achievements suggest CCM’s capacity to deliver on economic promises, but slow poverty reduction (26.4% in 2018) and reliance on public investment indicate challenges in achieving inclusive growth.

4. Realism of the Manifesto’s Economic Proposals

To evaluate the manifesto’s realism, we assess its key proposals against current conditions, historical trends, and feasibility:

a. Job Creation (350,000 Jobs in Zanzibar, Potential 8.5 Million Nationally)

• Realism: The target of 350,000 jobs in Zanzibar by 2030 is ambitious but plausible, given past performance (16,866 jobs from 2015–2020 investments). Zanzibar’s focus on tourism (targeting 5 million tourists by 2025, generating USD 6 billion) and the blue economy (300,000 units contribution) supports job creation in high-potential sectors. Nationally, an unconfirmed X post suggests a target of 8.5 million jobs, building on the 2020–2025 goal of 8 million. Achieving this requires scaling private sector-driven growth, as 70% of youth are already employed by the private sector.
• Challenges: Youth unemployment remains high, and the manifesto lacks specific national job targets. Structural transformation from low-productivity sectors like subsistence agriculture (25% of GDP) to industry and services is slow. External risks, such as foreign exchange shortages, could limit private sector investment.
• Support: Initiatives like training 2,500 cooperatives and providing livestock loans (two cows per youth annually) in Zanzibar enhance employability and income generation. Recent agreements with the UAE and Czech Republic signal continued FDI growth.

b. Investment Projects

• Realism: The manifesto’s focus on infrastructure (e.g., 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway, Bagamoyo port) and the blue economy (Mangapwani port) is likely to attract FDI, building on Zanzibar’s USD 3.74 billion from 2015–2020. Tanzania’s stable growth (5.5% average over 10 years) and strategic location make it a regional FDI hub. Projects like the USD 1.4 billion Tanzania–Zambia railway upgrade and the Kabanga Nickel Project underscore investor confidence.
• Challenges: Funding for large-scale projects is unclear, and public debt (41.1% of GDP) could strain resources. Regulatory challenges, such as land tenure and transparency, deter some investors.
• Support: The manifesto’s alignment with NDV 2050 and recent economic diplomacy (e.g., Tanzania–Mozambique Joint Economic Commission) strengthens the investment climate.

c. Per Capita Income

• Realism: The manifesto’s goal to increase Zanzibar’s per capita income builds on a rise from TZS 942,000 in 2010 to TZS 2,323,000 in 2018. Nationally, GDP per capita grew from USD 981 to USD 1,218 between 2015 and 2021. Initiatives like cooperative training and youth loans (Pages 58) could boost household incomes, particularly in rural areas (70% of the population).
• Challenges: The lack of a quantified target for per capita income limits measurability. Poverty reduction has been slow (26.4% in 2018), and income inequality persists.
• Support: The 35.1% minimum wage increase for public servants (from TZS 370,000 to TZS 500,000 in 2025) reflects efforts to improve incomes.

d. GDP Growth

• Realism: The manifesto does not specify 2030 GDP growth targets but aligns with external projections of 6% for Tanzania and 6.8% for Zanzibar in 2025. Achieving NDV 2050’s 8%+ annual growth requires sustained investment in agriculture (targeting 10% sectoral growth by 2030) and industry. Historical growth (5.3% in 2023, 4.8% in 2020) supports the feasibility of mid-term targets.
• Challenges: Geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, and a narrow tax base could hinder growth. The manifesto’s reliance on public investment may not sufficiently drive private sector-led growth, as noted by the World Bank.
• Support: Agricultural investments (TZS 954 billion in 2022/23) and tourism growth (18% of GDP) provide a strong foundation.

5. Critical Evaluation of Realism

The manifesto’s economic proposals are realistic in several respects:

• Track Record: CCM’s 2020–2025 achievements, such as irrigation expansion (+44%) and food security gains (128% sufficiency), demonstrate implementation capacity. Zanzibar’s historical FDI (USD 3.74 billion, 16,866 jobs) supports the feasibility of investment-driven growth.
• Policy Continuity: The manifesto builds on existing frameworks like FYDP III and NDV 2050, leveraging Tanzania’s stable growth (5.5% average) and low inflation (3.3% in 2025).
• Sectoral Focus: Prioritizing agriculture, tourism, and the blue economy aligns with Tanzania’s economic strengths (agriculture: 25% of GDP; tourism: 18%).

However, challenges threaten realism:

• Ambiguity: Targets like 300,000 units for the blue economy and per capita income increases lack clarity, complicating monitoring.
• Funding Gaps: Large-scale projects (e.g., 1,108-km railway) require significant funding, and public debt (41.1% of GDP) could limit resources.
• Structural Barriers: Slow structural transformation and reliance on subsistence agriculture (25% of GDP) hinder inclusive growth. Youth unemployment and regulatory challenges (e.g., land tenure) persist.
• External Risks: Foreign exchange shortages and geopolitical tensions could disrupt FDI and growth.

6. Conclusion

The CCM Manifesto for 2025 has the potential to drive economic transformation by 2030, but its success will depend on effective implementation and addressing challenges. The manifesto’s targets, such as creating 350,000 jobs in Zanzibar and infrastructure projects like the 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway, are supported by historical achievements (e.g., 16,866 jobs from USD 3.74 billion in Zanzibar investments) and current growth projections (6% for Tanzania, 6.8% for Zanzibar in 2025). Initiatives like training 2,500 cooperatives and boosting agricultural investment (TZS 954 billion in 2022/23) promote inclusive growth. However, vague targets, funding uncertainties, and structural issues, such as slow economic transformation and a public debt of 41.1% of GDP, demand careful management. With Tanzania’s stable growth (5.5% average) and strategic reforms, the manifesto holds realistic potential to achieve economic change by 2030, provided implementation is strong and external risks are mitigated.

Key figures related to the economic proposals in the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Manifesto for the 2025 General Election, launched on May 30, 2025, as requested in the question about its realism in bringing economic change to Tanzania by 2030. The table focuses on job creation, investment, per capita income, GDP growth, and related metrics, incorporating figures from the manifesto and relevant external sources to reflect the current economic situation (as of May 31, 2025, 11:05 AM EAT) and historical data. The figures are selected to assess the manifesto’s potential to drive economic transformation.

Notes:

1. Scope: The table includes key figures from the manifesto (e.g., 350,000 jobs in Zanzibar, 1,108-km railway) and external sources (e.g., 6% GDP growth for Tanzania in 2025, 3.3% inflation in March 2025) to evaluate the manifesto’s realism in driving economic change by 2030. Historical data (e.g., 304 investment projects worth USD 3.74 billion, 44% irrigation growth) provides context for feasibility.
2. Zanzibar Focus: The manifesto provides specific targets for Zanzibar, such as 350,000 jobs and 2,500 cooperatives, but lacks quantified national targets for per capita income and GDP growth, supplemented by external projections.
3. Ambiguity: The “300,000” figure for the blue economy lacks clear units (jobs or output), and per capita income targets are qualitative. National job creation targets (e.g., 8.5 million) are mentioned in external sources but not confirmed in the manifesto.
4. Current Context: As of May 31, 2025, 11:05 AM EAT, Tanzania’s stable growth (5.3% in 2023, 6% projected for 2025) and low inflation (3.3%) support the manifesto’s feasibility, though challenges like public debt (41.1% of GDP) and foreign exchange shortages persist.
5. Alignment with NDV 2050: The figures align with NDV 2050’s goals of achieving over 8% annual GDP growth, with manifesto initiatives like infrastructure and job creation supporting prosperity and inclusivity.

The Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Manifesto for the 2025 General Election outlines a robust plan to boost investment projects and per capita income, driving economic empowerment and GDP growth in Tanzania and Zanzibar by 2030. Targeting 350,000 new jobs in Zanzibar and supported by infrastructure projects like the 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway and Bagamoyo port, the manifesto aims to attract private sector investment to enhance trade and tourism. Initiatives such as training 2,500 cooperatives and providing two cows per youth annually in Zanzibar (Page 58) aim to increase per capita income, building on past achievements like 304 investment projects worth USD 3.74 billion from 2015–2020. With projected GDP growth of 6% for Tanzania and 6.8% for Zanzibar in 2025, these strategies align with the National Development Vision 2050’s goal of a prosperous, inclusive economy.

1. Increasing Investment Projects

The CCM Manifesto emphasizes attracting private sector investment and implementing strategic projects to drive economic growth and job creation. Key strategies include:

• Private Sector Investment in Key Sectors: The manifesto prioritizes investments in the blue economy, industry, agriculture, and services to enhance economic output. In Zanzibar, it specifically targets increasing the value of trade and industrial contributions to GDP. For example, the manifesto highlights the development of the Mangapwani port to boost maritime trade and tourism, which is expected to attract significant private investment.
• Infrastructure as an Investment Catalyst: Major infrastructure projects, such as the 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway and the new Bagamoyo port, are designed to create an enabling environment for investors by improving connectivity and reducing logistics costs. These projects align with the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) and Zanzibar Investment Promotion Agency (ZIPA) frameworks, which facilitate foreign direct investment (FDI) through streamlined permits and incentives.
• Zanzibar-Specific Investment Initiatives: The manifesto commits to promoting investment in Zanzibar’s blue economy, targeting a contribution of 300,000 units (likely jobs or economic output, though units are unclear) by 2030. It also plans to enhance tourism through projects like the Nungwi Tourism Road (12 km) and new airports in Nungwi and Paje, attracting investors in hospitality and related sectors.
• Past Achievements as a Foundation: The manifesto builds on previous successes, noting that between 2015 and 2020, Zanzibar attracted 304 investment projects worth USD 3.74 billion, creating 16,866 jobs. This track record suggests a continued focus on scaling up investment through similar promotion strategies.

2. Increasing Per Capita Income

The manifesto aims to raise per capita income to improve living standards and ensure inclusive economic growth, particularly for marginalized groups like youth and women. Key approaches include:

• Affordable Loans and Economic Empowerment: The manifesto pledges to provide affordable loans to youth, such as two cows per youth per region annually in Zanzibar, to foster income-generating activities. This initiative targets small-scale entrepreneurs and farmers, increasing household incomes.
• Cooperative Training: Training for 2,500 cooperative societies in Zanzibar is planned to enhance productivity and market access, directly contributing to income growth for cooperative members.
• Zanzibar Per Capita Income Target: The manifesto explicitly aims to increase per capita income in Zanzibar in US dollars by 2030, though it does not provide a specific figure. For context, Zanzibar’s per capita income rose from TZS 942,000 in 2010 to TZS 2,323,000 in 2018, and the manifesto seeks to build on this trend.
• Mainland Tanzania Context: While the manifesto does not specify a per capita income target for mainland Tanzania, external data indicates that Tanzania’s GDP per capita was USD 1,149 in 2024, with a marginal increase of 24.15% from USD 981 million to USD 1,218 million between 2015 and 2021. The manifesto’s focus on job creation and investment is expected to further elevate per capita income by 2030.

3. Job Creation for Economic Empowerment

Job creation is a cornerstone of the manifesto’s economic empowerment strategy, particularly targeting youth and informal sector workers. Key initiatives include:

• Zanzibar Job Creation Target: The manifesto sets a goal of creating at least 350,000 new jobs in Zanzibar by 2030, spanning formal and informal sectors. This includes jobs in tourism, agriculture, and the blue economy, supported by projects like the Mangapwani port and Nungwi Tourism Road.
• Mainland Tanzania Job Creation: While the manifesto does not provide a specific job creation target for mainland Tanzania for 2025–2030, it builds on the 2020–2025 manifesto’s goal of 8 million jobs. A post on X mentions a 2025–2030 target of 8.5 million new jobs for Tanzania, though this is not directly confirmed in the provided document.
• Youth Empowerment Programs: The manifesto emphasizes skill-building programs and private sector partnerships to enhance employability, particularly for graduates (Page 62). For example, livestock loans and cooperative training in Zanzibar aim to empower youth economically.
• Industrial and Tourism Growth: The manifesto plans to increase industrial employment opportunities, building on the 2020–2025 target of growing industrial jobs from 306,180 to 500,000 by 2025. Tourism initiatives, such as increasing tourist arrivals to 5 million by 2025 (generating USD 6 billion in revenue), are expected to create jobs in Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania.

4. GDP Growth Targets for Tanzania and Zanzibar by 2030

The manifesto outlines ambitions for GDP growth, though specific numerical targets for 2030 are less detailed compared to earlier manifestos. Available figures and projections include:

• Zanzibar GDP Growth: The manifesto emphasizes increasing GDP contributions from industries and the blue economy in Zanzibar by 2030. While it does not specify a percentage target, external sources project Zanzibar’s GDP growth at 6.8% in 2025 and over 6% annually through 2025. The manifesto’s focus on tourism, agriculture, and port development (e.g., Mangapwani) suggests sustained growth toward 2030.
• Mainland Tanzania GDP Growth: The manifesto does not provide a specific 2030 GDP growth target for mainland Tanzania. However, external projections indicate robust growth: 5.6% in 2024, 6% in 2025, and up to 6.4% by 2026. The NDV 2050 targets an annual GDP growth rate of over 8% to achieve a national GDP of USD 1 trillion by 2050 (), and the manifesto’s infrastructure and investment strategies align with this trajectory.
• Historical Context: Tanzania’s GDP grew by 5.3% in 2023, driven by agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, with Zanzibar achieving 7% growth in 2024. The manifesto builds on these trends by prioritizing similar sectors for 2025–2030.

5. Alignment with National Development Vision 2050

The NDV 2050 aims for a national GDP of USD 1 trillion and a per capita GDP of USD 12,000 by 2050, with an annual growth rate exceeding 8%. The manifesto’s strategies align as follows:

• Investment and Growth: Infrastructure projects (e.g., 1,108-km railway, Bagamoyo port) and investment promotion in the blue economy and tourism support NDV 2050’s goal of a competitive economy.
• Inclusivity: Job creation (350,000 jobs in Zanzibar) and empowerment initiatives like loans and cooperative training (Pages 56, 58) align with NDV 2050’s focus on equitable growth.
• Sustainability: Investments in sustainable sectors like the blue economy and food reserves support NDV 2050’s environmental goals.

6. Challenges and Considerations

• Clarity of Targets: The manifesto lacks specific numerical targets for per capita income and GDP growth for 2030, particularly for mainland Tanzania, relying instead on qualitative goals (e.g., “increase per capita income”). This ambiguity may complicate monitoring.
• Funding Risks: Large-scale projects like the Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway require significant funding, and the manifesto does not detail financing mechanisms, posing risks to implementation.
• External Risks: External sources highlight risks like foreign exchange shortages and public debt (41.1% of GDP in 2024) that could affect investment and growth.

Conclusion

The CCM Manifesto for 2025–2030 plans to increase investment projects through infrastructure development (e.g., 1,108-km Tanga–Arusha–Musoma railway, Bagamoyo port) and private sector engagement in sectors like the blue economy and tourism. It aims to raise per capita income through affordable loans (e.g., two cows per youth in Zanzibar) and training for 2,500 cooperatives. Job creation targets include 350,000 jobs in Zanzibar by 2030, with a potential national goal of 8.5 million jobs. While specific GDP growth targets for 2030 are not quantified, external projections suggest 6% for mainland Tanzania and 6.8% for Zanzibar in 2025, aligning with NDV 2050’s 8% annual growth goal. These strategies foster inclusive and sustainable growth, though clearer targets and funding plans would enhance implementation.

Table summarizing key figures related to investment projects, per capita income, and GDP growth from the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Manifesto for the 2025 General Election, focusing on the period 2025–2030. These figures highlight specific initiatives and targets for job creation, economic empowerment, and GDP growth in Tanzania and Zanzibar, as outlined in the manifesto, with some contextual data from external sources to address the question’s focus on measurable targets.

Notes:

1. Scope: The table focuses on quantifiable metrics related to investment projects, per capita income, and GDP growth from the manifesto. External sources provide context for GDP growth projections (6% for Tanzania, 6.8% for Zanzibar in 2025) and historical investment data (304 projects worth USD 3.74 billion in Zanzibar, 2015–2020).
2. Zanzibar Focus: The manifesto provides specific figures for Zanzibar, such as 350,000 jobs and 2,500 cooperatives, but lacks detailed national targets for per capita income and GDP growth.
3. Ambiguity in Targets: The “300,000” figure for the blue economy lacks clear units (jobs or output), and per capita income targets are qualitative. The national job creation target of 8.5 million is mentioned in an X post but not confirmed in the manifesto.
4. Alignment with NDV 2050: These figures support the National Development Vision 2050’s goals of prosperity (e.g., infrastructure investments), inclusivity (e.g., cooperative training, youth loans), and high GDP growth (targeting over 8% annually).