Tanzania Economic Update, August 2026: Inflation Rises, Credit Booms, Current Account Gap Widens

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

The Bank of Tanzania's August 2026 Monthly Economic Review paints a picture of an economy still expanding on credit and investment, but doing so against a backdrop of firming inflation, a tighter policy rate, and a widening external gap. None of the individual numbers is alarming on its own — but together they describe a shift from the relatively calm price and external environment of 2024-25 toward a more actively managed one in mid-2026.

Five findings frame this update.

Inflation has moved decisively above its recent range. Annual headline inflation rose to 4.2% in July 2026, from 4.0% in June 2026 and 3.3% a year earlier — still inside the national target and EAC/SADC convergence bands, but driven by a fuel-price pass-through into transport costs that pushed transport inflation to 13.8%.
The central bank has responded by tightening, even as credit keeps accelerating. The Monetary Policy Committee raised the Central Bank Rate (CBR) to 6.25% in July 2026, yet extended broad money (M3) grew 26.9% year-on-year and credit to the private sector grew 31.2% — a combination that puts the tightening and the credit boom on a collision course.
The current account deficit widened by 21.3% to USD 2,395.3 million in the year ending July 2026, as goods imports (up USD 3,018.0 million, led by investment-related and energy demand) outpaced the combined USD 2,828.3 million rise in exports of goods and services.
Government revenue collection is running ahead of target — tax revenue was 12.5% above the June 2026 monthly target — while the national debt stock, at USD 50,782.1 million, stayed broadly flat month-on-month, with external debt still 70.7% of the total.
Zanzibar's economy is on a visibly different track. Annual headline inflation there reached 6.0% in July 2026 — almost 1.8 percentage points above the mainland — driven by food prices, even as Zanzibar's current account surplus narrowed on a sharp rise in imports.

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Read this alongside TICGL's flagship Dira 2050 policy-gaps analysis

Month-to-month indicators like this one are how Tanzania's economy checks its pulse against the Dira 2050 destination — a USD 1 trillion economy. A firming inflation and interest-rate environment, and a widening current account gap, are exactly the kind of near-term pressures that can slow that path if left unmanaged. TICGL/TERI recommends reading this update alongside the Dira 2050 policy-gaps piece for the longer-run context.

Read: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050 →

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About TERI — TICGL's Research Institute

This update was produced under the Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), TICGL's affiliate research institute covering macroeconomics, public finance, and Tanzania's broader economic performance. TERI tracks the Bank of Tanzania's monthly releases as part of its standing macroeconomics & public finance research pillar, feeding the same data into TICGL's client-facing economic-intelligence and feasibility work.

Visit TERI — teri.ticgl.com →

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers From the August 2026 Review

Headline Inflation, Jul-26

4.2%

Jun-26: 4.0% · Jul-25: 3.3%

Core Inflation, Jul-26

3.9%

Jun-26: 3.7% · Jul-25: 1.9%

Food Inflation, Jul-26

4.1%

Unchanged m/m · Jul-25: 7.6%

Energy, Fuel & Utilities Inflation

6.9%

Jun-26: 6.3% · Jul-25: 1.0%

Overall Lending Rate, Jul-26

14.85%

Down from 15.22% in Jun-26

TZS/USD Exchange Rate, Jul-26 Avg

2,653.52

Depreciated 0.8% m/m, appreciated 0.5% y/y

Gross Official Reserves

USD 6.20bn

4.8 months of import cover

National Debt Stock, End Jul-26

USD 50.78bn

-0.07% m/m · 70.7% external

Headline, Core, Food and Energy Inflation, July 2025 - July 2026

Annual % change — the run-up from April 2026 onward is driven mainly by transport and energy

Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania, via BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Tables A9(i) and A9(ii)).

03 — Global BackdropThe External Environment Tanzania Is Operating In

The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projects global growth at a strong 3% for 2026, though unevenly distributed across regions, shaped by energy-price volatility and geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Crude oil averaged USD 79.80 per barrel in July 2026, down 2.3% from June but still 28.5% above the pre-conflict Q4-2025 average, keeping cost pressure on energy-importing economies like Tanzania. Gold averaged USD 4,073 per troy ounce, down from USD 4,228 in June as safe-haven demand eased — still historically elevated, which matters directly for Tanzania given gold's dominant share of export earnings (see Section 3 below).

Why this matters for Tanzania specifically

Sustained supply-chain bottlenecks tied to the Middle East conflict could slow global growth and intensify inflation simultaneously — a combination that leaves commodity-importing economies like Tanzania exposed on both the growth and the price side at once, and is a direct contributor to the fuel-driven transport and energy inflation described in Section 1.

1. Inflation: Back Above Its Recent Range, Led by Fuel Pass-Through

Within target bands, but rising

Theme I of V

Annual headline inflation rose to 4.2% in July 2026, from 4.0% in June and 3.3% a year earlier — comfortably inside the national target and the EAC and SADC convergence benchmarks, but visibly above the calmer 2024-25 range. The increase was driven primarily by the pass-through of fuel prices into transport costs, with transport inflation reaching 13.8% in July 2026, up from just 1.2% a year earlier.

Table 1: Inflation snapshot — mainland Tanzania
Measure	Jul-25	Jun-26	Jul-26
Headline inflation	3.3%	4.0%	4.2%
Core inflation	1.9%	3.7%	3.9%
Food inflation	7.6%	4.1%	4.1%
Energy, fuel & utilities inflation	1.0%	6.3%	6.9%
Transport inflation	1.2%	13.6%	13.8%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania computations, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table 2.1.1.

Food inflation has stayed flat at 4.1% between June and July 2026, well below the 7.6% recorded a year earlier — a stability the review attributes to increased food availability from the ongoing harvest, with wholesale prices of maize, rice, beans and finger millet all below their July 2025 levels. Core inflation, which strips out unprocessed food and energy, rose to 3.9%, reflecting that the recent easing in fuel prices has not yet fully transmitted across all petroleum products. Core inflation remained the largest single contributor to the headline rate, accounting for 2.9 of the 4.2 percentage points in July 2026.

TICGL reading

The inflation story is now a transport/energy story, not a food story — food inflation has actually fallen sharply year-on-year, so businesses and analysts tracking "inflation risk" should watch fuel and transport cost pass-through specifically, not headline food prices.
National Food Reserve Agency stocks remain a genuine buffer, at 479,065 tonnes against a 150,000-tonne benchmark, which supports the case that food-price stability can hold even if global food markets turn volatile.

2. Monetary Policy Tightens, Yet Credit Keeps Accelerating

A tightening rate alongside a credit boom

Theme II of V

In July 2026 the Monetary Policy Committee raised the Central Bank Rate (CBR) from 5.75% to 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, aiming to contain potential second-round effects from elevated energy, fertilizer and transport costs. The interbank cash market rate has moved with it, rising 57 basis points to 6.57%, and the 7-day interbank cash market rate is now held within a 4.75%-7.75% corridor around the CBR.

Interest Rate Structure, July 2025 - July 2026

Percent — overall lending rate, overall Treasury bills rate, and the REPO rate (policy-rate proxy)

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table A4 (Interest Rates Structure).

Despite the tighter policy stance, extended broad money (M3) grew 26.9% year-on-year in July 2026, marginally above the 25.5% recorded in June, driven largely by credit to the private sector, which expanded 31.2% — up from 28.1% in June — reflecting robust demand tied to expanding economic activity, including crop purchases in the harvest season. Trade recorded the strongest annual credit growth among sectors, followed by mining and quarrying, building and construction, and agriculture; personal loans (predominantly to MSMEs) remained the largest share of banks' credit portfolios at 34%.

Broad Money (M3) and Private Sector Credit Growth, 2018-2025

Annual % change — the long-run acceleration that sets up the current tightening decision

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table A1 (Selected Economic Indicators).

Why this combination is worth watching

A rising policy rate is normally expected to slow credit growth with a lag — the review itself notes the CBR increase "is expected to moderate growth of money supply and credit, although the effect is likely to materialize with a lag." Until that lag plays out, borrowers locking in financing now are doing so against a rate environment that is already tightening, which raises refinancing risk for anything priced off short-term rates.

3. The External Sector: Gold-Led Export Growth Isn't Keeping Pace With Imports

Current account deficit widening

Theme III of V

The current account deficit widened by 21.3% to USD 2,395.3 million in the year ending July 2026, from USD 1,975.4 million a year earlier. The deficit reflects a USD 3,018.0 million increase in goods imports — driven by investment-related and energy demand — that outweighed a combined USD 2,828.3 million increase in exports of goods and services.

Table 2: Current account summary, year ending July (Millions of USD)
Item	2025	2026p	% Change
Goods account (net)	-4,521.1	-5,487.6	21.4%
Services account (net)	4,094.7	4,665.9	14.0%
Primary income account (net)	-2,015.5	-1,958.4	-2.8%
Secondary income account (net)	466.4	384.7	-17.5%
Current account balance	-1,975.4	-2,395.3	21.3%

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority, banks and Bank of Tanzania calculations, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table 2.7.1.

Exports of goods and services grew a healthy 16.5% to USD 19,985.8 million, led by gold, which rose 37.4% to USD 5,670.7 million and now supplies 47.4% of goods export earnings — consolidating its position as Tanzania's principal foreign-exchange source. Manufactured exports grew 46.0% and traditional exports (tobacco and coffee) rose 14.9%. But imports of goods and services grew faster still, up 18.3% to USD 20,807.4 million, led by capital and intermediate goods; refined white petroleum product imports alone rose 42.3% to USD 3,296.8 million on elevated global oil prices.

Exports and Imports of Goods, 2018-2025

Millions of USD — the long-run trade gap behind the widening current account deficit

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table A1 (Selected Economic Indicators).

Gross official foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 6,199.6 million at the end of July 2026, broadly unchanged from a year earlier, equivalent to 4.8 months of projected imports — still within the country's own and regional (EAC/SADC) reserve-adequacy benchmarks. The shilling depreciated mildly against the US dollar month-on-month (0.8%, averaging TZS 2,653.52) but actually appreciated 0.5% on an annual basis, aided by foreign-currency liquidity from gold and traditional crop exports and from tourism.

4. Government Budget and National Debt: Revenue Ahead of Target, Debt Broadly Stable

Collection strong, debt load steady

Theme IV of V

In June 2026, government revenue collections exceeded the monthly target by 5.4%, reaching TZS 4,658.2 billion, of which the central government collected TZS 4,512.1 billion. Tax revenue was the standout, at TZS 3,733.2 billion — 12.5% above target — reflecting ongoing improvements in tax administration and compliance, while non-tax revenue fell short of its target. Total government expenditure reached TZS 4,720.0 billion, split between TZS 2,797.9 billion recurrent and TZS 1,922.1 billion development spending.

Table 3: Central government revenue, June 2026 (Billions of TZS)
Revenue Line	2025 Actual	2026 Estimate	2026 Actual
Taxes on imports	1,012.1	995.6	1,213.3
Income tax	1,441.8	1,436.4	1,702.9
Taxes on local goods and services	490.9	684.6	587.5
Other taxes	164.0	203.2	229.5
Non-tax revenue	470.4	953.8	778.9
Grants	53.0	188.8	118.7

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania computations, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Chart 2.5.1 (actual 2026 figures provisional).

The national debt stock stood at USD 50,782.1 million at the end of July 2026, a marginal 0.07% decrease from the prior month. Of this, 70.7% was external debt (USD 35,885.6 million), which itself rose 0.2% during the month; 83.7% of external debt was public debt. Multilateral institutions remain the largest external creditor group at 59.2% of the stock, followed by commercial lenders at 34.6%. Domestic debt stood at TZS 39,472.2 billion, up marginally from TZS 39,325.8 billion, driven by government-bond issuance to finance development projects.

National Debt Stock by Component, July 2025 - July 2026

Millions of USD — external, domestic and total debt stock, month by month

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table A10 (National Debt Developments).

TICGL reading

Revenue performance is a genuine bright spot — tax revenue running 12.5% above target for a second consecutive month points to real gains in administration and compliance, not just favourable base effects.
The debt composition, not just the headline number, is what to track. A rising commercial-creditor share (34.6%, up from 34.2% a year earlier) generally carries a higher and less concessional cost of capital than the multilateral share it is partly displacing.

5. Zanzibar: Hotter Inflation, a Narrowing External Surplus

Diverging from the mainland

Theme V of V

Zanzibar's annual headline inflation rose to 6.0% in July 2026, from 4.1% a year earlier — almost 1.8 percentage points above the mainland's 4.2%. The increase was driven mainly by higher food prices (food inflation reached 11.1%, more than double the mainland's 4.1%) compounded by rising transport costs following fuel-price increases, even as Zanzibar's non-food inflation actually eased, to 1.9% from 3.9% a year earlier.

Mainland vs. Zanzibar Headline Inflation, July 2026

Annual % change — Zanzibar is running notably hotter than the mainland

Source: Office of the Chief Government Statistician; National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Tables 2.1.1 and 3.1.1.

On the fiscal side, Zanzibar's government resources (domestic revenue plus grants) reached TZS 188.1 billion in July 2026, 74.1% of the monthly target, while expenditure of TZS 304.5 billion — over half of it development spending — produced a TZS 116.4 billion deficit financed through domestic borrowing. Zanzibar's current account remained in surplus but the surplus narrowed to USD 771.1 million in the year ending July 2026, from USD 848.6 million a year earlier, as imports of goods and services grew 64.0%, far outpacing 22.4% export growth driven largely by tourism receipts and clove exports.

Why treat Zanzibar as a separate market

A single "Tanzania" inflation or demand assumption will understate cost pressure and overstate external buffer strength for anything specific to Zanzibar. Any feasibility study, pricing model, or market-entry plan targeting Zanzibar specifically should use Zanzibar's own inflation and trade data rather than the mainland aggregate.

06 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: August 2026 in One Picture

Price pressure is real but still contained

Headline inflation at 4.2% remains inside target bands, but the drivers have shifted from food to fuel and transport — a different risk profile than a year ago.

Policy is tightening into a credit boom

A CBR raised to 6.25% is working against 31.2% private-sector credit growth; the review itself expects the moderating effect to arrive with a lag.

The external gap is widening on investment demand

Import growth tied to investment and energy needs is outpacing even a strong, gold-led export performance — a normal feature of an economy still building capacity, but one that needs financing.

The fiscal and reserve position is holding

Revenue collection is ahead of target, the debt stock is broadly stable, and reserves cover 4.8 months of imports — the buffers needed to absorb the pressures above are, for now, in place.

07 — RecommendationsWhat This Means for Businesses and Investors

Priority 1 — Watch the Inflation-Credit Combination

Track fuel and transport cost pass-through specifically, since that — not food prices — is now driving headline inflation.
Model financing costs against a rate environment that is already tightening, not the pre-July 2026 rate level.

Priority 2 — Build FX and Import-Cost Buffers

Given a widening current account deficit and import growth concentrated in capital and energy goods, stress-test import-heavy cost lines against further FX movement.
Note that the shilling still appreciated on an annual basis despite the monthly dip — treat month-on-month FX moves cautiously rather than extrapolating them.

Priority 3 — Track Debt Composition, Not Just the Headline Number

Watch the rising commercial-creditor share of external debt, which typically carries a higher cost of capital than the multilateral share it is partly displacing.

Priority 4 — Treat Zanzibar as a Distinct Market

Use Zanzibar-specific inflation, trade and fiscal data for any project targeting Zanzibar directly — its inflation and external trajectory currently differ materially from the mainland's.

"None of these numbers, on its own, is a warning sign. Together, they describe an economy that has moved from managing calm conditions to actively managing a tighter one — and that shift is exactly the kind of turning point a feasibility study or a market-entry plan needs to price in now, not discover later."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

08 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

Primary source

Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 — covering July 2026 inflation, monetary policy, interest rate and external-sector data; June 2026 central government budgetary operations; and year-ending-July 2026 balance-of-payments and debt figures. All figures in this update are drawn or computed directly from that publication by TICGL/TERI.

Primary data: Bank of Tanzania — Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Tables 1.1, 2.1.1, 2.2.1, 2.3.1, 2.4.1, 2.5.1, 2.6.1-2.6.6, 2.7.1-2.7.2, 3.1.1-3.3.3, A1, A3, A4, A5, A9(i), A9(ii), A10).
Supporting sources cited in the review: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS); Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA); Ministry of Finance and Planning; National Food Reserve Agency; World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet); IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026.
Known limitation: 2026 fiscal-year figures in this update are provisional and subject to revision in subsequent BOT releases; monthly moves (e.g., the FX rate) can reverse and should be read alongside the annual comparison given alongside each figure.

09 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

What is Tanzania's inflation rate as of July 2026?

Tanzania's annual headline inflation rose to 4.2% in July 2026, up from 4.0% in June 2026 and 3.3% in July 2025, driven mainly by fuel-price pass-through to transport costs. It remains within the national target band and EAC/SADC convergence benchmarks, but above its recent historical average.

Did the Bank of Tanzania raise interest rates in 2026?

Yes. In July 2026 the Monetary Policy Committee raised the Central Bank Rate (CBR) from 5.75% to 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, aiming to contain emerging inflationary pressure from energy, fertilizer and transport costs.

Is Tanzania's current account deficit widening?

Yes. The current account deficit widened by 21.3% to USD 2,395.3 million in the year ending July 2026, from USD 1,975.4 million a year earlier, as goods imports grew faster than the combined growth in exports of goods and services.

What is Tanzania's national debt stock in 2026?

Tanzania's national debt stock stood at USD 50,782.1 million at the end of July 2026, roughly unchanged from the previous month. External debt made up 70.7% of the total, at USD 35,885.6 million, of which 83.7% was public debt.

How does Zanzibar's inflation compare to mainland Tanzania's?

Zanzibar's annual headline inflation was considerably higher at 6.0% in July 2026, compared with 4.2% on the mainland, driven mainly by food prices (11.1% food inflation) and rising transport costs, even as Zanzibar's non-food inflation eased to 1.9%.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Hali ya Uchumi wa Tanzania, Agosti 2026: Mfumuko wa Bei Waongezeka, Mikopo Yaongezeka Kasi, na Pengo la Akaunti ya Mauzo Nje Lazidi Kuongezeka. Muhtasari huu ni uchambuzi wa TICGL/TERI wa Ripoti ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT), Agosti 2026, ukijumuisha takwimu za mfumuko wa bei na sera ya fedha za Julai 2026, utekelezaji wa bajeti ya Serikali za Juni 2026, na hali ya sekta ya nje na deni la taifa hadi Julai 2026.

Matokeo makuu: Mfumuko wa bei wa jumla uliongezeka hadi asilimia 4.2 mwezi Julai 2026, kutoka asilimia 4.0 Juni 2026 na asilimia 3.3 Julai 2025, ukichochewa hasa na gharama za mafuta kuathiri usafirishaji. Benki Kuu iliongeza Kiwango cha Riba cha Benki Kuu (CBR) kutoka asilimia 5.75 hadi 6.25 mwezi Julai 2026, hata hivyo mikopo kwa sekta binafsi iliendelea kukua kwa kasi ya asilimia 31.2. Nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa iliongezeka kwa asilimia 21.3 hadi Dola za Marekani milioni 2,395.3 kwa mwaka unaoishia Julai 2026, kutokana na uagizaji wa bidhaa kukua haraka kuliko mauzo nje. Deni la taifa lilifikia Dola za Marekani milioni 50,782.1 mwishoni mwa Julai 2026, likiwa thabiti kiasi, huku ukusanyaji wa mapato ya kodi ukizidi lengo kwa asilimia 12.5. Zanzibar inaonesha mfumuko wa bei wa juu zaidi (asilimia 6.0) ikilinganishwa na Bara (asilimia 4.2), na ziada yake ya akaunti ya nje imepungua.

Mfumuko wa Bei wa Jumla (Julai 2026): asilimia 4.2 — juu kutoka asilimia 3.3 mwaka uliopita
Kiwango cha Riba cha Benki Kuu (CBR): asilimia 6.25 — kiliongezwa Julai 2026
Ukuaji wa Mikopo kwa Sekta Binafsi: asilimia 31.2 — juu kutoka asilimia 28.1 Juni 2026
Nakisi ya Akaunti ya Sasa: Dola za Marekani bilioni 2.40 — imeongezeka kwa asilimia 21.3
Deni la Taifa: Dola za Marekani bilioni 50.78 — asilimia 70.7 ni deni la nje
Mfumuko wa Bei Zanzibar: asilimia 6.0 — juu zaidi ya Bara (asilimia 4.2)

Chanzo: Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), kwa ajili ya TICGL, uchambuzi wa Ripoti ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Agosti 2026.

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Tanzania's external debt stock reached approximately TZS 95.1 trillion at the end of July 2026, converting the Bank of Tanzania's reported USD 35,885.6 million at the prevailing end-of-period exchange rate. This report looks at that stock from three angles that matter for debt sustainability and fiscal planning: who ultimately owes it (the central government overwhelmingly), what it has been used to fund (a mix dominated by balance-of-payments and budget support, transport and telecommunication, and social welfare and education), and which currencies it is denominated in (still heavily the US dollar, with a slowly rising Euro share).

A methodological point runs through the whole report and is worth stating up front: because this data is converted from US dollars into shillings, part of the shilling-value increase between Jul-25 and Jul-26 reflects the shilling's own depreciation against the dollar over that period, not new borrowing. Separating those two effects is one of this report's central contributions.

The external debt stock grew from TZS 85.8 trillion to TZS 95.1 trillion between Jul-25 and Jul-26, a shilling-terms increase of about 10.8%. Of that, roughly 6.5 percentage points reflect actual dollar-debt growth (from USD 33,712.4 million to USD 35,885.6 million), while roughly 4.1 percentage points reflect the shilling's depreciation against the dollar over the same period.
The central government holds the large majority of the debt — 83.7% (≈TZS 79.6 trillion) at end-July 2026 — with the private sector holding the remaining 16.3% (≈TZS 15.5 trillion) and public corporations holding a negligible amount.
Balance-of-payments and budget support is the single largest use of funds, at 22.8% (≈TZS 21.5 trillion), narrowly ahead of transport and telecommunication at 21.9% (≈TZS 20.7 trillion) and social welfare and education at 19.5% (≈TZS 18.4 trillion).
Tourism and real estate/construction are the smallest and slowest-growing use-of-funds categories, together accounting for only 6.4% (≈TZS 6.1 trillion) of disbursed outstanding debt at end-July 2026.
The US dollar dominates the currency composition at 65.3% (≈TZS 61.6 trillion), with the Euro's share drifting upward from 17.8% to 18.2% over the year, the Chinese Yuan holding steady at 6.6%, and other currencies at 9.9%.

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The third piece in TICGL/TERI's current macro-fiscal reading

This report completes a three-part reading of the Bank of Tanzania's August 2026 Monthly Economic Review: Central Government Budgetary Operations covers revenue and expenditure; External Sector Performance covers the current account, exports and imports; and this report covers the external debt stock that helps finance the gaps documented in both. Read together, they trace the path from the budget deficit, through the current account, to the debt stock it leaves behind.

Read: Tanzania's External Sector Performance →

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About TERI — TICGL's Research Institute

This report was produced under the Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), TICGL's dedicated research arm covering public finance, external debt and Tanzania's broader economic development. It draws on the Bank of Tanzania's monthly publication cycle to keep TICGL/TERI's macro monitoring current, and forms part of TERI's wider Tanzania Works: The Political Economy of Shared Prosperity series, produced to be adapted directly into government, parliamentary and development-partner policy briefs.

Visit TERI — teri.ticgl.com →

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers From the External Debt Stock

Total External Debt Stock, Jul-26

TZS 95.09tn

Up from TZS 85.83tn in Jul-25

Central Government Debt, Jul-26

TZS 79.58tn

83.7% of the total stock

Private Sector Debt, Jul-26

TZS 15.50tn

16.3% of the total stock

Disbursed Outstanding Debt, Jul-26

TZS 94.33tn

Excludes interest arrears of ≈TZS 0.76tn

Transport & Telecom (Use of Funds)

TZS 20.70tn

21.9% of disbursed outstanding debt

Social Welfare & Education (Use of Funds)

TZS 18.42tn

19.5% of disbursed outstanding debt

Euro-Denominated Debt, Jul-26

TZS 17.12tn

18.2%, up from 17.8% in Jul-25

FX-Driven Share of TZS Growth, Jul-25→Jul-26

≈4.1 pts

Of the 10.8% total increase in TZS terms

External Debt Stock by Borrower, Jul-25 – Jul-26

TZS trillions, converted at each period's end-of-period exchange rate

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.6.1); TICGL/TERI currency conversion and presentation.

03 — MethodologyConverting External Debt Into Shillings

The Bank of Tanzania reports Tanzania's external debt stock, its breakdown by borrower, its use of funds and its currency composition exclusively in US dollars. To present this data in Tanzanian shillings, TICGL/TERI has converted each reference month's dollar figures using the end-of-period TZS/USD exchange rate published in the same Monthly Economic Review's statistical tables (Table A10): TZS 2,545.8 per US dollar for July 2025, TZS 2,623.5 per US dollar for June 2026, and TZS 2,649.7 per US dollar for July 2026. All monetary figures on this page are expressed in TZS trillions (one trillion shillings equals one million million shillings).

How the figures were built

For each of the three reference months, every US-dollar figure in Tables 2.6.1 (debt stock by borrower), 2.6.3 (use of funds) and 2.6.4 (currency composition) — using the absolute values that sit behind these percentage-share tables in Table A10 — was multiplied by that month's end-of-period exchange rate and divided by one million to express the result in TZS trillions. Percentage shares are unaffected by currency conversion and are reproduced as published; TICGL/TERI cross-checked each computed TZS total against the published percentage shares and confirmed they are consistent to within normal rounding.

A currency-conversion caveat, stated plainly

Because exchange rates move between reference dates, part of any change in these shilling figures over time reflects exchange rate movement rather than a change in the underlying dollar-denominated debt. This report separates the two effects explicitly in Theme 1 below, and readers using this data for debt-to-GDP or other ratio analysis should note that GDP itself is typically reported in shillings using different conversion conventions, so ratios computed from this page's TZS figures should be treated as indicative rather than official.

1. External Debt Stock by Borrower: The Central Government's Debt, Overwhelmingly

Government-dominated, growing partly on FX effects

Theme I of III

Tanzania's external debt stock rose from TZS 85.83 trillion at the end of July 2025 to TZS 95.09 trillion at the end of July 2026 — an increase of about 10.8% in shilling terms. Underlying that figure in US dollars, the debt stock grew a more modest 6.45% (from USD 33,712.4 million to USD 35,885.6 million), while the shilling itself depreciated by about 4.1% against the dollar over the same period. Compounding those two effects reproduces the 10.8% shilling-terms increase almost exactly — a reminder that roughly two-fifths of the reported shilling growth in this debt stock is a currency effect, not new borrowing.

Table 1: External debt stock by borrower, TZS trillions (converted at each period's end-of-period rate)
Borrower	Jul-25	Jun-26	Jul-26	% share, Jul-26
Central government	72.74	78.67	79.58	83.7%
o/w Disbursed outstanding debt	72.53	78.46	79.37	83.5%
o/w Interest arrears	0.20	0.21	0.21	0.2%
Private sector	13.08	15.32	15.50	16.3%
o/w Disbursed outstanding debt	12.81	14.81	14.96	15.7%
o/w Interest arrears	0.27	0.51	0.55	0.6%
Public corporations	0.003	0.000	0.000	0.0%
Total external debt stock	85.83	93.99	95.09	100.0%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.6.1). TICGL/TERI conversion at end-of-period exchange rates of TZS 2,545.8/USD (Jul-25), TZS 2,623.5/USD (Jun-26) and TZS 2,649.7/USD (Jul-26). "o/w" denotes "of which".

The central government's share of the debt stock has been essentially stable across the three reference months, moving only from 84.8% (Jul-25) to 83.7% (Jul-26), with the private sector's share correspondingly rising from 15.2% to 16.3%. Interest arrears remain small in absolute terms — about TZS 0.76 trillion combined at end-July 2026 — but the private sector's arrears more than doubled in shilling terms over the year, from TZS 0.27 trillion to TZS 0.55 trillion, a faster pace of increase than its underlying disbursed debt.

TICGL reading

Roughly four of every ten shillings of debt-stock growth over the past year is a currency effect, not new borrowing — a distinction that matters when this data is used in public communication or debt-sustainability commentary.
Private-sector interest arrears are growing faster than private-sector debt itself, worth monitoring even though the absolute shilling amounts remain modest relative to the central government's position.

2. Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds: Budget Support and Infrastructure Lead

Broadly stable composition

Theme II of III

Balance-of-payments and budget support is the single largest identified use of Tanzania's disbursed outstanding external debt, at 22.8% (≈TZS 21.47 trillion) at end-July 2026, narrowly ahead of transport and telecommunication at 21.9% (≈TZS 20.70 trillion). Social welfare and education follows at 19.5% (≈TZS 18.42 trillion), then energy and mining at 12.5% (≈TZS 11.80 trillion). Tourism and real estate/construction are the smallest categories, together accounting for only 6.4% of the total.

Table 2: Disbursed outstanding debt by use of funds, TZS trillions and % share
Use of funds	Jul-25 (TZS tn)	Jun-26 (TZS tn)	Jul-26 (TZS tn)	% share, Jul-26
BoP and budget support	19.88	21.23	21.47	22.8%
Transport and telecommunication	18.02	20.40	20.70	21.9%
Social welfare and education	16.92	18.12	18.42	19.5%
Energy and mining	10.19	11.81	11.80	12.5%
Agriculture	4.34	4.94	5.03	5.3%
Real estate and construction	4.53	4.54	4.56	4.8%
Finance and insurance	3.10	3.93	3.97	4.2%
Other	4.34	4.26	4.31	4.6%
Industries	2.52	2.49	2.52	2.7%
Tourism	1.52	1.54	1.55	1.6%
Total disbursed outstanding debt	85.36	93.27	94.33	100.0%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.6.3 percentage shares; underlying absolute figures from Table A10). TICGL/TERI conversion at each period's end-of-period exchange rate.

Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds — Percentage Share

% of disbursed outstanding external debt — Jul-25, Jun-26, Jul-26

The composition has been remarkably stable across the three reference months — no category moved by more than about a percentage point — which suggests the use-of-funds mix reflects long-standing project financing commitments rather than short-term shifts in borrowing strategy. In shilling terms, every category grew in absolute size between Jul-25 and Jul-26, consistent with the overall stock's growth, with finance and insurance growing fastest in percentage terms (from TZS 3.10 trillion to TZS 3.97 trillion, +28.1%) and industries essentially flat (TZS 2.52 trillion in both periods).

TICGL reading

Infrastructure and human-capital financing together account for more than 40% of disbursed outstanding debt — transport/telecommunication (21.9%) plus social welfare/education (19.5%) — a composition consistent with long-run development financing rather than short-term consumption support.
Budget support remains the largest single category, underscoring how closely external debt and the government's own budgetary operations (covered in TICGL/TERI's companion report) are linked.

3. Currency Composition: Dollar-Dominated, With a Slowly Rising Euro Share

Concentrated currency exposure

Theme III of III

The US dollar remains overwhelmingly dominant in Tanzania's disbursed outstanding external debt, at 65.3% (≈TZS 61.59 trillion) at end-July 2026, though its share has edged down slightly from 65.5% a year earlier. The Euro's share has moved the other way, rising from 17.8% to 18.2% (≈TZS 17.12 trillion). The Chinese Yuan's share has held essentially flat at 6.6% (≈TZS 6.26 trillion), and other currencies combined account for 9.9% (≈TZS 9.36 trillion).

Table 3: Disbursed outstanding debt by currency composition, TZS trillions and % share
Currency	Jul-25 (TZS tn)	Jun-26 (TZS tn)	Jul-26 (TZS tn)	% share, Jul-26
United States Dollar	55.91	61.06	61.59	65.3%
Euro	15.23	16.88	17.12	18.2%
Chinese Yuan	5.60	6.18	6.26	6.6%
Other	8.61	9.16	9.36	9.9%
Total disbursed outstanding debt	85.36	93.27	94.33	100.0%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.6.4 percentage shares; underlying absolute figures from Table A10). TICGL/TERI conversion at each period's end-of-period exchange rate.

Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency Composition — Percentage Share

% of disbursed outstanding external debt — Jul-25, Jun-26, Jul-26

Because the debt stock is overwhelmingly dollar- and Euro-denominated, movements in the shilling's exchange rate against those two currencies — not against the Chinese Yuan or other currencies, whose combined share is under a fifth — will continue to be the dominant driver of any future currency-translation effects of the kind quantified in Theme 1.

TICGL reading

A currency composition this concentrated in two hard currencies is not unusual for a country financing large infrastructure and budget-support loans from multilateral and bilateral partners, but it does mean the shilling-value of the debt stock will keep moving with the dollar-shilling and euro-shilling exchange rates regardless of any change in underlying borrowing behaviour — precisely the effect this report has attempted to separate out in Theme 1.

05 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: External Debt in One Picture

The debt stock is government debt, first and foremost

At 83.7% of the total, central government debt dominates Tanzania's TZS 95.1 trillion external debt stock, with the private sector's share edging up slowly.

Its use is concentrated in budget support and infrastructure

Balance-of-payments/budget support, transport/telecommunication and social welfare/education together account for nearly two-thirds of disbursed outstanding debt.

Currency exposure is concentrated in the dollar and euro

At a combined 83.5% of disbursed outstanding debt, the US dollar and Euro dominate the currency composition, keeping the shilling value of the debt stock sensitive to those two exchange rates.

Not all shilling growth is new borrowing

Around four-tenths of the year-on-year increase in the debt stock's shilling value reflects the shilling's own depreciation against the dollar, not additional disbursements.

06 — RecommendationsPolicy Directions on External Debt

Priority 1 — Separate FX Effects From New Borrowing in Public Reporting

When communicating debt-stock growth in shilling terms, disclose how much reflects exchange rate movement versus new disbursements, following the decomposition demonstrated in this report.

Priority 2 — Monitor Private-Sector Arrears Growth

Track why private-sector interest arrears more than doubled in shilling terms over the past year, even though they remain small relative to the central government's position.

Priority 3 — Stress-Test Currency Concentration

Given that the US dollar and Euro together account for 83.5% of disbursed outstanding debt, run debt-service projections under a range of dollar-shilling and euro-shilling exchange rate scenarios.

Priority 4 — Keep Use-of-Funds Reporting Granular

Continue publishing the use-of-funds breakdown at this level of detail, since its stability over time is itself a useful signal for tracking whether new borrowing follows established financing priorities or shifts toward new ones.

"Tanzania's external debt stock looks bigger in shillings than it does in dollars — and part of that gap is simply the exchange rate, not the debt. Getting that distinction right matters for how the number gets used in public debate."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

07 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

Primary source

Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 — Table 2.6.1 (External Debt Stock by Borrower), Table 2.6.3 (Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds, Percentage Share), Table 2.6.4 (Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency Composition, Percentage Share), and Table A10 (National Debt Developments, including the absolute-value series behind Tables 2.6.3 and 2.6.4, and end-of-period exchange rates). All currency conversions from USD to TZS on this page are TICGL/TERI's own computation and are not published by the Bank of Tanzania in this form.

Primary data: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026; Ministry of Finance (external debt records).
Method: Each US-dollar figure was converted to Tanzanian shillings using the end-of-period TZS/USD exchange rate published for the same reference month in Table A10 (Jul-25: 2,545.8; Jun-26: 2,623.5; Jul-26: 2,649.7), then expressed in trillions of shillings. Percentage shares are reproduced as published and are unaffected by currency conversion. The FX-versus-new-borrowing decomposition in Theme 1 was computed by TICGL/TERI by comparing the growth rate of the US-dollar debt stock with the depreciation rate of the exchange rate over the same period.
Known limitations: Jul-26 figures are marked provisional in the source publication and may be revised in subsequent releases. TZS figures on this page use end-of-period exchange rates, which can differ from period-average rates used elsewhere in the same Review; readers combining this page's TZS figures with GDP or other shilling-denominated series reported on a different conversion basis should treat resulting ratios as indicative only. This report does not cover domestic debt, which the Bank of Tanzania reports separately.
Related TICGL analysis: TICGL/TERI, "Tanzania's Central Government Budgetary Operations: Revenue, Expenditure and the Fiscal Balance" — read here; "Tanzania's External Sector Performance: Current Account, Services Exports and Services Imports" — read here; "Tanzania Government Revenue & Expenditure, 2000-2026" — read here.

08 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

How large is Tanzania's external debt stock in Tanzanian shillings?

Tanzania's external debt stock stood at approximately TZS 95.1 trillion at the end of July 2026, converting the Bank of Tanzania's reported USD 35,885.6 million at the end-of-period exchange rate of TZS 2,649.7 per US dollar.

Who holds Tanzania's external debt?

The central government holds the large majority of Tanzania's external debt, about 83.7% or roughly TZS 79.6 trillion at end-July 2026. The private sector holds about 16.3%, or roughly TZS 15.5 trillion, while public corporations hold a negligible amount.

What is Tanzania's external debt used for?

The largest uses of Tanzania's disbursed outstanding external debt are balance of payments and budget support (22.8%, about TZS 21.5 trillion), transport and telecommunication (21.9%, about TZS 20.7 trillion), and social welfare and education (19.5%, about TZS 18.4 trillion), as of end-July 2026.

What currencies is Tanzania's external debt denominated in?

The US dollar dominates at 65.3% of disbursed outstanding external debt (about TZS 61.6 trillion), followed by the Euro at 18.2% (about TZS 17.1 trillion), the Chinese Yuan at 6.6% (about TZS 6.3 trillion), and other currencies at 9.9% (about TZS 9.4 trillion), as of end-July 2026.

Why convert Tanzania's external debt into shillings instead of using the Bank of Tanzania's dollar figures?

The Bank of Tanzania publishes external debt only in US dollars. Converting to shillings at the prevailing end-of-period exchange rate shows the debt's scale in local-currency terms and highlights that some of the increase in shilling value over time reflects the shilling's depreciation against the dollar rather than new borrowing — a distinction that matters for assessing debt sustainability.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Deni la Nje la Tanzania: Wadai kwa Aina, Matumizi ya Fedha, na Muundo wa Sarafu (kwa Shilingi za Tanzania). Ripoti hii ya TICGL/TERI inachambua takwimu za deni la nje la Tanzania kutoka Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (Mapitio ya Kiuchumi ya Kila Mwezi, Agosti 2026), zikiwa zimebadilishwa kutoka Dola za Marekani kwenda Shilingi za Tanzania (trilioni), kwa kutumia kiwango cha ubadilishaji cha mwisho wa kipindi cha kila mwezi.

Matokeo makuu: Deni la nje la Tanzania lilifikia takribani Shilingi trilioni 95.1 mwishoni mwa Julai 2026, likiwa limeongezeka kutoka Shilingi trilioni 85.8 Julai 2025 — ongezeko la asilimia 10.8 kwa thamani ya Shilingi. Hata hivyo, sehemu kubwa ya ongezeko hilo (takribani pointi 4.1 kati ya asilimia 10.8) inatokana na kushuka kwa thamani ya Shilingi dhidi ya Dola, si mikopo mipya pekee. Serikali Kuu inamiliki asilimia 83.7 ya deni hilo (takribani Shilingi trilioni 79.6), huku sekta binafsi ikimiliki asilimia 16.3 (takribani Shilingi trilioni 15.5). Kwa upande wa matumizi, sehemu kubwa ya deni imeelekezwa kwenye msaada wa bajeti na urari wa malipo (asilimia 22.8), usafirishaji na mawasiliano (asilimia 21.9), na ustawi wa jamii na elimu (asilimia 19.5). Kwa upande wa sarafu, Dola ya Marekani inatawala kwa asilimia 65.3, ikifuatiwa na Euro (asilimia 18.2), Yuan ya China (asilimia 6.6), na sarafu nyingine (asilimia 9.9).

Hitimisho kuu ni kwamba deni la nje la Tanzania linaendelea kuwa la Serikali Kuu kwa kiasi kikubwa, likielekezwa zaidi kwenye miradi ya miundombinu, elimu, na msaada wa bajeti — muundo unaoashiria mikopo ya muda mrefu ya maendeleo badala ya matumizi ya muda mfupi. Hata hivyo, umuhimu wa kutenganisha athari za kushuka kwa thamani ya Shilingi na ongezeko halisi la mikopo ni jambo muhimu kwa uwazi wa taarifa za deni mbele ya umma, hasa ikizingatiwa kuwa asilimia 83.5 ya deni hilo lipo kwenye Dola na Euro pekee.

Deni la Nje Jumla, Julai 2026: Shilingi trilioni 95.1 (≈ Dola milioni 35,885.6)
Sehemu ya Serikali Kuu: asilimia 83.7 (≈ Shilingi trilioni 79.6)
Matumizi Makubwa Zaidi: Msaada wa Bajeti na Urari wa Malipo — asilimia 22.8
Sarafu Kuu: Dola ya Marekani — asilimia 65.3 (≈ Shilingi trilioni 61.6)
Sehemu ya Ongezeko la Deni Inayotokana na Kushuka kwa Shilingi: takribani pointi 4.1 kati ya asilimia 10.8

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Mapitio ya Kiuchumi ya Kila Mwezi, Agosti 2026; ubadilishaji wa sarafu na uchambuzi wa Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), kwa ajili ya TICGL, Septemba 2026.

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Tanzania's national debt stock — external and domestic combined — stood at roughly TZS 134.6 trillion at the end of July 2026, essentially flat from the month before. That single figure hides two very different stories: an external debt load that keeps climbing in dollar terms and has more than doubled in TZS-trillion terms since 2018, and a domestic debt stock that has actually eased slightly over the past year as the government leaned more on non-securitized instruments than fresh bond issuance in a few recent months.

Five findings frame this debt breakdown.

External debt still dominates, at roughly TZS 95.1 trillion — 70.7% of the total — with domestic debt making up the remaining TZS 39.5 trillion.
Multilateral lenders remain Tanzania's single largest creditor group, holding roughly TZS 56.3 trillion (59.2%) of external debt, but the commercial-creditor share has been edging up, now roughly TZS 32.9 trillion (34.6%).
The external debt book is overwhelmingly dollar-denominated — 65.3% in US dollars — which means TZS depreciation risk sits directly on top of the debt-service bill, independent of anything Tanzania does domestically.
Domestically, government securities carry almost the entire load — roughly TZS 35.5 trillion (90.0%) of domestic debt — with commercial banks and pension funds together holding more than half of it.
The long-run trend is unambiguous: external debt alone has grown from roughly TZS 46.4 trillion in 2018 to TZS 95.1 trillion by 2025/26 — more than doubling in eight years, even before accounting for domestic debt growth.

📌

Read this alongside TICGL's flagship Dira 2050 policy-gaps analysis

Financing a USD 1 trillion economy takes capital — and how much of that capital is borrowed, on what terms, and in what currency, shapes how much fiscal room Dira 2050's ambitions actually have. TICGL/TERI recommends reading this debt breakdown alongside the Dira 2050 policy-gaps piece for the wider fiscal-space context.

Read: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050 →

🔬

About TERI — TICGL's Research Institute

This breakdown was produced under the Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), TICGL's affiliate research institute, drawing on its macroeconomics & public finance research pillar and its infrastructure & PPP pillar — debt sustainability and how borrowed capital is deployed (including into the transport, energy and social-welfare projects itemised below) sit at the centre of both.

Visit TERI — teri.ticgl.com →

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers, in TZS Trillions

National Debt Stock, End Jul-26

TZS 134.56tn

USD 50,782.1 million

External Debt Stock

TZS 95.09tn

70.7% of national debt

Domestic Debt Stock

TZS 39.47tn

29.3% of national debt

Public Share of External Debt

83.7%

Central government + guaranteed debt

Tanzania's National Debt Stock, July 2025 - July 2026

TZS trillions — external, domestic and total debt, month by month

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table A10 — converted to TZS trillions using each month's end-of-period exchange rate (also from Table A10).

03 — MethodologyHow the Trillion-Shilling Figures Were Built

The Bank of Tanzania's own debt tables report external debt in Millions of US dollars, and domestic debt in Billions of TZS — two different currencies and two different scales. To make the whole national debt readable as one figure, in one unit, every USD-denominated line on this page has been converted to TZS using the end-of-period exchange rate for that same month (also published in the Bank's Table A10), then re-scaled from TZS millions to TZS trillions. TZS-denominated domestic-debt figures were simply re-scaled from billions to trillions (divide by 1,000).

Worked example — July 2026

External debt stock: USD 35,885.6 million × TZS 2,649.7/USD ≈ TZS 95,086,074 million ≈ TZS 95.09 trillion. Domestic debt stock: TZS 39,472.2 billion ÷ 1,000 = TZS 39.47 trillion. Summing the two independently (TZS 95.09tn + TZS 39.47tn ≈ TZS 134.56tn) reproduces the Bank's own reported national debt stock of USD 50,782.1 million converted the same way — a useful cross-check that the conversion is internally consistent.

A caveat worth stating plainly

Converting external debt to TZS at a point-in-time exchange rate does not change what Tanzania actually owes in dollar terms — it only restates it in local-currency terms for comparability with domestic debt. A TZS depreciation would mechanically raise the TZS-trillion value of external debt (and the local-currency cost of servicing it) even if the underlying USD-denominated debt stock does not change at all.

1. The National Debt Stock and Its Recent Trend

Rising steadily, external-debt-led

Theme I of V

Over the twelve months to July 2026, Tanzania's national debt stock rose from roughly TZS 121.2 trillion to TZS 134.6 trillion — an increase of about TZS 13.4 trillion, or 11.1%. Almost all of that increase came from external debt, which rose from about TZS 85.8 trillion to TZS 95.1 trillion, while domestic debt actually moved within a narrower band, ending the period at roughly the same level it started (TZS 39.5 trillion vs TZS 35.4 trillion a year earlier — domestic debt did rise, but far more modestly than external debt in percentage terms).

Table 1: National debt stock, monthly, TZS trillions
Month	External Debt	Domestic Debt	Total National Debt
Jul-25	85.83	35.35	121.18
Sep-25	84.30	37.64	121.94
Nov-25	84.29	38.36	122.65
Jan-26	88.95	38.60	127.55
Mar-26	91.06	38.45	129.51
May-26	92.48	39.26	131.74
Jun-26	93.99	39.33	133.32
Jul-26	95.09	39.47	134.56

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table A10 — converted to TZS trillions (see Methodology). Alternate months shown for readability; the chart above plots all thirteen months.

TICGL reading

The month-on-month total was essentially flat (-0.07%) in July 2026, but that flatness masks a small external-debt increase offset by a small domestic-debt decrease — worth watching whether that pattern continues or reverses.
External debt is doing almost all of the multi-month growth work. Anyone modelling Tanzania's medium-term debt trajectory should weight external-debt drivers (new disbursements, FX movement) more heavily than domestic-debt drivers right now.

2. External Debt Structure: Who Owes It, and to Whom

Public-sector-led, multilateral-dominated

Theme II of V

Of Tanzania's TZS 95.09 trillion external debt stock, the central government carries the overwhelming majority — TZS 79.58 trillion (83.7%) — with the private sector carrying the remaining TZS 15.50 trillion (16.3%). On the creditor side, multilateral institutions (the World Bank Group, African Development Bank, IMF and similar) hold the largest single share.

Table 2: External debt by borrower, Jul-26 (TZS trillions)
Borrower	TZS Trillion	Share
Central government	79.58	83.7%
Private sector	15.50	16.3%
Public corporations	~0.00	0.0%

Table 3: External debt by creditor, Jul-26 (TZS trillions)
Creditor	TZS Trillion	Share
Multilateral	56.32	59.2%
Commercial	32.93	34.6%
Bilateral	4.13	4.3%
Export credit	1.71	1.8%

External Debt by Borrower

TZS trillions, Jul-26

External Debt by Creditor

TZS trillions, Jul-26

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Tables 2.6.1 and 2.6.2 — converted to TZS trillions.

Why the commercial share matters

Commercial creditors now hold more than a third of Tanzania's external debt. Commercial borrowing typically carries shorter maturities and higher interest rates than concessional multilateral financing, which means a rising commercial share tends to push up both the near-term debt-service bill and its sensitivity to global interest-rate conditions.

3. What the Borrowed Money Is For, and What Currency It's In

Infrastructure-heavy, dollar-heavy

Theme III of V

Balance-of-payments and budget support remains the single largest use of Tanzania's disbursed external debt, at 22.8% as of July 2026, followed closely by transport and telecommunication (21.9%) and social welfare and education (19.5%) — together these three categories account for roughly two-thirds of all disbursed external debt.

Table 4: Disbursed external debt by use of funds, Jul-26
Use of Funds	Share
Balance of payments & budget support	22.8%
Transport & telecommunication	21.9%
Social welfare & education	19.5%
Energy & mining	12.5%
Agriculture	5.3%
Real estate & construction	4.8%
Finance & insurance	4.2%
Other	4.6%
Industries	2.7%
Tourism	1.6%

Table 5: Disbursed external debt by currency, Jul-26
Currency	Share
US Dollar	65.3%
Euro	18.2%
Chinese Yuan	6.6%
Other	9.9%

Use of Funds

% of disbursed outstanding external debt, Jul-26

Currency Composition

% of disbursed outstanding external debt, Jul-26

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Tables 2.6.3 and 2.6.4.

4. Domestic Debt Structure: Government Securities Carry the Load

Bond-financed, bank- and pension-fund-held

Theme IV of V

Domestic debt stood at TZS 39.47 trillion at the end of July 2026, with government securities alone making up TZS 35.53 trillion (90.0%) — of which government bonds are by far the largest instrument, at TZS 33.62 trillion (85.2% of total domestic debt), against just TZS 1.78 trillion (4.5%) in Treasury bills. Non-securitized debt (overdraft) made up the remaining TZS 3.94 trillion.

Table 6: Domestic debt by borrowing instrument, Jul-26 (TZS trillions)
Instrument	TZS Trillion	Share
Government bonds	33.62	85.2%
Non-securitized debt (overdraft)	3.94	10.0%
Treasury bills	1.78	4.5%
Government stocks	0.14	0.3%

Table 7: Domestic debt by creditor category, Jul-26 (TZS trillions)
Creditor	TZS Trillion	Share
Commercial banks	11.45	29.0%
Pension funds	10.49	26.6%
Bank of Tanzania	6.82	17.3%
Others (public institutions, private companies, individuals, non-residents)	7.79	19.7%
Insurance	2.06	5.2%
BOT's special funds	0.85	2.2%

Domestic Debt by Instrument

TZS trillions, Jul-26

Domestic Debt by Creditor

TZS trillions, Jul-26

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania, BOT Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Tables 2.6.5 and 2.6.6 — converted from TZS billions to TZS trillions.

TICGL reading

Commercial banks and pension funds together hold 55.6% of domestic debt — a concentration that ties Tanzania's banking-sector and pension-fund balance sheets closely to government-bond performance, in both directions.
The government's own overdraft facility with the Bank of Tanzania (part of "non-securitized debt") is a smaller but faster-moving domestic-financing tool worth watching separately from the bond programme.

5. The Long-Run Trajectory: External Debt Has More Than Doubled Since 2018

Sustained, multi-year climb

Theme V of V

Zooming out from the last twelve months to the last eight years shows the same direction of travel, just more of it. Tanzania's external debt stock has grown from roughly TZS 46.4 trillion in 2018 to roughly TZS 88.2 trillion in 2025 — before the further rise to TZS 95.1 trillion by July 2026 captured in Section 1. That is more than a doubling in eight years, a period spanning the COVID-19 shock, a global rate-hiking cycle, and a sustained domestic infrastructure investment push.

Tanzania's External Debt Stock, 2018-2025

TZS trillions, annual, converted using each year's average exchange rate

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, Table A1 (Selected Economic Indicators) — external debt stock and annual-average exchange rate, converted to TZS trillions.

A debt-service snapshot worth flagging

In July 2026 alone, actual external debt service came to roughly TZS 0.32 trillion (about TZS 0.27 trillion in principal and TZS 0.06 trillion in interest), against fresh disbursements of only about TZS 0.11 trillion that same month — meaning debt service outpaced new borrowing in July specifically. External debt arrears (overdue principal and interest) also stood at roughly TZS 2.60 trillion at end July 2026, a figure worth monitoring for whether it continues to grow.

06 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: Tanzania's Debt in One Picture

External debt is the story

At TZS 95.1 trillion and rising, external debt drives almost all of the recent growth in Tanzania's national debt stock — domestic debt has been comparatively stable.

Multilateral-dominated, but commercial-rising

Concessional multilateral financing still leads, but a rising commercial-creditor share (34.6%) is pushing the average cost and tenor of new debt in a less favourable direction.

Currency risk is concentrated

Nearly two-thirds of external debt is dollar-denominated — a single-currency concentration that ties debt-service costs tightly to shilling movements.

Domestic debt is bank- and pension-fund-anchored

Government bonds dominate domestic borrowing, held mainly by commercial banks and pension funds — a stable but concentrated funding base.

07 — RecommendationsWhat This Means for Policy and for Investors

Priority 1 — Track the Commercial-Creditor Share Over Time

A rising commercial share of external debt (now 34.6%) is a leading indicator of rising average debt-service costs — worth tracking quarter to quarter, not just as a snapshot.

Priority 2 — Treat FX Risk as a Debt-Management Issue, Not Just a Trade Issue

With 65.3% of external debt in US dollars, any sustained TZS depreciation raises the local-currency debt-service bill mechanically — hedging and reserve-adequacy planning should account for this explicitly.

Priority 3 — Watch the Disbursement-vs-Debt-Service Balance Monthly

July 2026's debt service (TZS 0.32tn) outpacing new disbursements (TZS 0.11tn) is a single-month snapshot, not a trend — but it is worth checking against future months.

Priority 4 — Understand the Domestic Debt Holder Concentration

With commercial banks and pension funds holding 55.6% of domestic debt between them, any stress in government-bond markets would transmit directly into bank and pension-fund balance sheets.

"A debt figure in dollars and a debt figure in shillings tell two different stories until you put them on the same scale. Once you do, the picture is clear: Tanzania's debt load is growing steadily, it is increasingly dollar-denominated, and it is increasingly held by commercial rather than concessional lenders — three trends worth watching together, not separately."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

08 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

Primary source

Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 — Table A10 (National Debt Developments), Tables 2.6.1 through 2.6.6 (External and Domestic Debt), and Table A1 (Selected Economic Indicators). All TZS-trillion figures on this page are TICGL/TERI's own conversion of the Bank's USD-millions and TZS-billions figures, using the exchange rate published for the matching period in the same release.

Primary data: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania — Monthly Economic Review, August 2026.
Conversion method: USD-denominated figures converted to TZS using the end-of-period exchange rate for monthly series (Table A10) and the annual-average exchange rate for the 2018-2025 annual series (Table A1), then re-scaled from TZS millions to TZS trillions. TZS-billion figures re-scaled directly to TZS trillions.
Known limitation: Point-in-time exchange-rate conversion means the TZS-trillion value of external debt moves with the shilling even when the underlying USD debt stock does not; 2026 figures are provisional and subject to revision in subsequent BOT releases.

09 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

What is Tanzania's national debt in 2026?

Tanzania's national debt stock stood at approximately TZS 134.6 trillion (USD 50,782.1 million) at the end of July 2026, broadly unchanged from the previous month. This combines both external and domestic debt.

How much of Tanzania's debt is external versus domestic?

External debt made up about TZS 95.1 trillion (70.7%) of the total, while domestic debt made up about TZS 39.5 trillion (29.3%), as of end July 2026.

Who are Tanzania's biggest external creditors?

Multilateral institutions are the largest external creditor group, holding about TZS 56.3 trillion (59.2%) of external debt, followed by commercial creditors at about TZS 32.9 trillion (34.6%), bilateral creditors at about TZS 4.1 trillion (4.3%), and export credit agencies at about TZS 1.7 trillion (1.8%).

What currency is most of Tanzania's external debt denominated in?

The US dollar dominates, accounting for 65.3% of disbursed outstanding external debt as of July 2026, followed by the Euro at 18.2%, the Chinese Yuan at 6.6%, and other currencies at 9.9%.

Who holds most of Tanzania's domestic debt?

Commercial banks hold the largest share of domestic debt, at about TZS 11.5 trillion (29.0%), followed by pension funds at about TZS 10.5 trillion (26.6%) and the Bank of Tanzania at about TZS 6.8 trillion (17.3%), as of end July 2026.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Deni la Taifa la Tanzania, Julai 2026: Trilioni 134.6 za Shilingi, Likichambuliwa kwa Mkopeshaji, Sarafu na Matumizi. Ukurasa huu unaonesha deni la taifa la Tanzania — la nje na la ndani — likiwa katika kipimo kimoja tu: Trilioni za Shilingi za Tanzania (TZS), badala ya kuchanganya Dola za Kimarekani (deni la nje) na Bilioni za Shilingi (deni la ndani) kama BOT inavyoripoti.

Mambo makuu: Deni la taifa lilifikia takribani Trilioni 134.6 za TZS mwishoni mwa Julai 2026, likiwa thabiti kiasi ikilinganishwa na mwezi uliopita. Deni la nje linaendelea kutawala kwa Trilioni 95.1 (asilimia 70.7), huku deni la ndani likiwa Trilioni 39.5 (asilimia 29.3). Taasisi za kimataifa (multilateral) ndizo mkopeshaji mkubwa zaidi wa deni la nje kwa Trilioni 56.3 (asilimia 59.2), ikifuatiwa na wakopeshaji wa kibiashara kwa Trilioni 32.9 (asilimia 34.6) — sehemu inayozidi kuongezeka. Asilimia 65.3 ya deni la nje liko kwa Dola za Kimarekani, hivyo mabadiliko ya thamani ya shilingi yanaathiri moja kwa moja gharama za kulipa deni hilo. Deni la ndani linatawaliwa na hatifungani za Serikali (Trilioni 33.6, asilimia 85.2), likishikiliwa zaidi na benki za kibiashara na mifuko ya pensheni. Kwa muda mrefu, deni la nje limeongezeka zaidi ya mara mbili tangu mwaka 2018 (kutoka Trilioni 46.4 hadi Trilioni 95.1).

Deni la Taifa (Julai 2026): Trilioni 134.6 za TZS
Deni la Nje: Trilioni 95.1 (asilimia 70.7)
Deni la Ndani: Trilioni 39.5 (asilimia 29.3)
Mkopeshaji Mkubwa wa Deni la Nje: Taasisi za Kimataifa — Trilioni 56.3 (asilimia 59.2)
Sarafu Kuu ya Deni la Nje: Dola ya Kimarekani — asilimia 65.3
Ukuaji wa Deni la Nje Tangu 2018: Trilioni 46.4 hadi Trilioni 95.1 (zaidi ya mara mbili)

Chanzo: Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), kwa ajili ya TICGL, uchambuzi wa takwimu za deni la Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Agosti 2026 — zilizobadilishwa kuwa Trilioni za TZS.

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Central government budgetary operations — the month-by-month, shilling-by-shilling record of what government collects and what it spends — are where fiscal policy meets fiscal reality. This report reads that record from the Bank of Tanzania's August 2026 Monthly Economic Review, at three levels of resolution: the single month of June 2026, the full fiscal year July 2025 to June 2026 measured against its original budget, and the eight-year structural trend in revenue, expenditure and the balance as shares of GDP.

Three things stand out. First, revenue collection is genuinely outperforming — both in June 2026 and across the full fiscal year — driven mainly by stronger income tax and import tax collection. Second, that revenue strength is not simply flowing to the bottom line: the wage bill and other recurrent transfers ran well above their original budget allocations for the year, even as interest costs and grants came in below plan. Third, and most structurally significant, development expenditure's share of GDP has fallen for three straight years after peaking in FY2021/22, while current expenditure's share has climbed to a series high — a rebalancing toward recurrent spending that revenue overperformance has so far cushioned rather than reversed.

June 2026 revenue beat target by 5.4%, reaching TZS 4,658.2 billion, with tax revenue 12.5% above target at TZS 3,733.2 billion — reflecting continued gains in tax administration and compliance.
June 2026 expenditure came in under plan. Total spending of TZS 4,720.0 billion was 94.8% of the monthly estimate, with both recurrent (94.4%) and development (95.4%) expenditure below plan, narrowing the deficit to TZS 362.6 billion from a planned TZS 371.3 billion.
The full FY2025/26 fiscal year closed with revenue 3.6% above the original budget (TZS 41,930.4 billion against TZS 40,466.1 billion) and expenditure essentially on budget at 99.3% (TZS 48,451.0 billion against TZS 48,775.0 billion), leaving an overall deficit of TZS 6,147.7 billion — about 15% narrower than the TZS 7,239.0 billion originally budgeted.
Underneath that headline discipline, spending was reallocated. The wage bill ran 21.6% above its original budget and other goods, services and transfers ran 76.5% above budget, while interest payments came in 13.7% below budget and grants fell 14.2% short of budget.
The long-run trend shows a structural shift toward recurrent spending. Current expenditure to GDP climbed from 10.2% in FY2017/18 to a series-high 11.9% in FY2024/25, while development expenditure to GDP fell from a FY2021/22 peak of 9.2% to 6.9% in FY2024/25 — even as the overall deficit narrowed from its FY2021/22 peak of 4.1% of GDP to 3.0% in FY2024/25, still wider than the 1.9% recorded in FY2017/18.

📌

Part of TICGL/TERI's Government Budget series

This piece drills into the operational side of the same 26-year Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania fiscal dataset used across TICGL/TERI's Government Budget series: Revenue & Expenditure, 2000-2026, Revenue & Tax Structure, 2000-2025, and Tanzania's Reliance on VAT. Read together, they move from the 26-year structural view down to this report's month-by-month operational lens.

Read: Tanzania Government Revenue & Expenditure, 2000-2026 →

🔬

About TERI — TICGL's Research Institute

This report was produced under the Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), TICGL's dedicated research arm covering public finance, fiscal policy and Tanzania's broader economic development. It draws on the Bank of Tanzania's monthly publication cycle to keep TICGL/TERI's Government Budget series current between the deeper structural updates, and forms part of TERI's wider Tanzania Works: The Political Economy of Shared Prosperity series, produced to be adapted directly into government, parliamentary and development-partner policy briefs.

Visit TERI — teri.ticgl.com →

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers From the Budgetary Operations

Total Revenue, FY2025/26 (Actual)

TZS 41,930.4bn

103.6% of the original budget

Total Expenditure, FY2025/26 (Actual)

TZS 48,451.0bn

99.3% of the original budget

Wage Bill, FY2025/26 (Actual)

TZS 13,279.3bn

21.6% above the original budget

Development Expenditure, FY2025/26

TZS 17,057.2bn

97.5% of the original budget

Non-Tax Revenue, June 2026

TZS 778.9bn

81.7% of the monthly target

Foreign Financing (net), FY2025/26

TZS 2,705.9bn

Loans, less amortisation, plus basket support

Current Expenditure / GDP, FY2024/25

11.9%

Series-high, up from 10.2% in FY2017/18

Development Expenditure / GDP, FY2024/25

6.9%

Down from a 9.2% peak in FY2021/22

Central Government Revenue, June 2026

TZS billions, by revenue category — 2025 actual, 2026 monthly estimate, 2026 actual

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Chart 2.5.1); TICGL/TERI presentation.

03 — MethodologyReading the Budgetary Operations Data

Central government budgetary operations are reported by the Bank of Tanzania on a "cheques issued" basis — the point at which government cheques (or equivalent electronic payment instructions) are released, rather than when funds are appropriated in the budget. This report uses three complementary cuts of that data from the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania: the June 2026 monthly outturn against its in-year estimate; the cumulative outturn for the full fiscal year July 2025 to June 2026 against the original 2025/26 budget; and the eight-year series of fiscal ratios to GDP for FY2017/18 through FY2024/25, which captures the structural trend beneath any single year's numbers.

How the figures were organised

Revenue is grouped into taxes on imports, sales/VAT and excise on local goods, income taxes, other taxes, non-tax revenue, and LGA own sources, following the Ministry of Finance's own categorisation. Expenditure is grouped into recurrent expenditure (wages and salaries, interest payments, and other goods, services and transfers) and development expenditure and net lending (local and foreign components). Where a "% of budget" or "% of target" figure is cited, it compares the actual figure against either the original annual budget or the relevant in-year monthly or annual estimate, as stated in each case.

Why this analysis, why now

TICGL/TERI's Government Budget series has so far examined 26-year structural trends in revenue, tax composition and VAT. This report complements that work by tracking the government's actual month-to-month and year-to-year budget execution — the gap (or lack of one) between what is planned and what is delivered — which is where near-term fiscal risk and opportunity typically first show up.

1. June 2026 Snapshot: Revenue Beats Target, Spending Stays Below Plan

Revenue up, spending disciplined

Theme I of IV

In June 2026, government resources — domestic revenue plus grants — reached TZS 4,658.2 billion, 5.4% above the monthly target. Central government revenue made up TZS 4,512.1 billion of that, or 96.9% of the total, with local government authorities' own sources contributing the balance.

Table 1: Central government revenue and expenditure, June 2026 (TZS billions)
Item	2025 Actual	2026 Estimate	2026 Actual	% of Estimate
Taxes on imports	1,012.1	995.6	1,213.3	121.9%
Income tax	1,441.8	1,436.4	1,702.9	118.6%
Taxes on local goods and services	490.9	684.6	587.5	85.8%
Other taxes	164.0	203.2	229.5	112.9%
Non-tax revenue	470.4	953.8	778.9	81.7%
Grants	53.0	188.8	118.7	62.9%
Wages and salaries	970.7	1,119.8	1,163.1	103.9%
Interest costs	571.3	644.0	597.4	92.8%
Other recurrent expenditure	898.6	1,201.6	1,037.5	86.3%
Development expenditure	909.4	2,014.4	1,922.1	95.4%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Charts 2.5.1 and 2.5.2). % of Estimate computed by TICGL/TERI.

Central Government Expenditure, June 2026

TZS billions, by expenditure category — 2025 actual, 2026 monthly estimate, 2026 actual

Two things about June are worth separating. On the revenue side, taxes on imports and income tax both beat their estimates comfortably — by 21.9% and 18.6% respectively — while taxes on local goods and services (largely domestic VAT) and non-tax revenue fell short. On the expenditure side, every recurrent and development category landed at or below its monthly estimate except wages, which came in 3.9% above plan even in a month of overall spending restraint. Total expenditure of TZS 4,720.0 billion against an estimate of TZS 4,979.8 billion meant the Bank of Tanzania could describe June as the government "successfully aligning its expenditure with available resources."

TICGL reading

Import and income tax strength is the story of the month — both categories beat target by close to a fifth, doing most of the work in the overall 5.4% revenue overperformance.
Non-tax revenue and grants are the two categories to watch — both under-delivered relative to estimate, and both are typically the least predictable parts of the revenue base month to month.

2. The Full FY2025/26 Outturn: Revenue Overperformance Meets Spending Reallocation

On budget overall, reshuffled underneath

Theme II of IV

Zooming out from June to the full fiscal year — July 2025 through June 2026 — tells a related but distinct story. Total revenue for the year reached TZS 41,930.4 billion, 3.6% above the original TZS 40,466.1 billion budget, with tax revenue alone running 7.5% ahead of its TZS 32,176.0 billion budget. Total expenditure of TZS 48,451.0 billion landed almost exactly on the TZS 48,775.0 billion original budget, at 99.3%.

Table 2: FY2025/26 revenue, TZS billions — original budget vs in-year estimate vs actual (July 2025 – June 2026)
Revenue item	Budget	FY Estimate	FY Actual	Actual / Budget
Taxes on imports	11,563.0	11,563.0	12,559.2	108.6%
Sales/VAT and excise on local goods	7,016.5	7,016.5	6,492.3	92.5%
Income tax	11,367.9	11,268.6	13,220.6	116.3%
Other taxes	4,887.7	2,328.0	2,307.2	47.2%
Non-tax revenue	4,681.7	6,609.6	5,744.5	122.7%
Grants	1,069.9	1,052.7	917.6	85.8%
LGA own sources	1,680.5	1,680.5	1,606.7	95.6%
Total revenue (incl. LGAs)	40,466.1	40,466.1	41,930.4	103.6%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table A2). Figures are in billions of TZS, rounded from Table A2's underlying millions.

FY2025/26 Revenue: Budget vs Full-Year Actual

TZS billions, July 2025 – June 2026

Table 3: FY2025/26 expenditure, TZS billions — original budget vs in-year estimate vs actual (July 2025 – June 2026)
Expenditure item	Budget	FY Estimate	FY Actual	Actual / Budget
Wages and salaries	10,917.5	13,121.5	13,279.3	121.6%
Interest payments	6,493.7	6,938.9	5,605.3	86.3%
Other goods, services and transfers	7,088.6	11,109.2	12,509.2	176.5%
Recurrent expenditure	31,281.3	31,169.6	31,393.7	100.4%
Development expenditure and net lending	17,493.7	17,605.4	17,057.2	97.5%
Total expenditure	48,775.0	48,775.0	48,451.0	99.3%
Grants received	1,069.9	1,052.7	917.6	85.8%
Overall balance	-7,239.0	-7,256.2	-6,147.7	84.9%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table A2). "Actual/Budget" for the overall balance is expressed as the actual deficit's share of the budgeted deficit — a lower percentage means a smaller-than-planned deficit.

FY2025/26 Expenditure: Budget vs Full-Year Actual

TZS billions, July 2025 – June 2026

The headline is reassuring — total expenditure landing at 99.3% of budget looks like textbook fiscal discipline. But the composition tells a more complicated story. The wage bill overshot its original budget by 21.6%, and other goods, services and transfers overshot theirs by a striking 76.5%. Both were financed, in effect, by interest payments coming in 13.7% below budget (helped by lower foreign interest costs) and by development expenditure landing close to, but slightly below, its original allocation at 97.5%. Non-tax revenue also beat its original budget by 22.7% even though it undershot the higher in-year estimate the government had set for itself mid-year.

TICGL reading

The wage bill and other recurrent transfers are the categories driving budget deviation — both were re-estimated upward during the year and then still ran ahead of even those higher in-year estimates for wages, or close to them for other transfers.
Development expenditure absorbed some of the adjustment — landing 2.5% below its original budget even after revenue overperformed, which is the opposite of what a straightforward "windfall funds more investment" story would predict.

3. Financing the Gap: Foreign Loans Do the Heavy Lifting

External financing dominant, domestic role shrinking

Theme III of IV

An overall deficit has to be financed from somewhere, and how it is financed matters as much as its size. For the full FY2025/26 year, the TZS 6,147.7 billion overall deficit was financed by TZS 2,705.9 billion in net foreign financing and TZS 3,441.7 billion in net domestic financing — split roughly 44% foreign and 56% domestic across the year as a whole.

Table 4: Financing of the overall balance, TZS billions
Item	FY2025/26 Actual	June 2026 Actual
Overall balance (deficit)	-6,147.7	-362.6
Foreign financing (net)	2,705.9	477.4
o/w Loans (net of amortisation)	2,637.0	477.4
Domestic financing (net)	3,441.7	-114.8
o/w Bank borrowing	1,544.0	-242.6
o/w Non-bank (net of amortisation)	1,897.8	127.8

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table A2). Figures rounded from underlying millions of TZS; "o/w" denotes "of which".

June 2026 illustrates how differently a single month can look from the annual average. That month's smaller-than-planned deficit of TZS 362.6 billion was covered entirely by TZS 477.4 billion in net foreign financing, while the government actually made a net repayment of TZS 114.8 billion on domestic obligations — driven mainly by a TZS 242.6 billion net repayment to banks that was only partly offset by continued net non-bank borrowing. In a month when tax revenue overperformed, the government used the room created to pay down domestic debt rather than borrow further at home.

TICGL reading

Financing mix matters for debt sustainability as much as the deficit's headline size does. A financing pattern that leans on foreign loans in strong revenue months, while still drawing meaningfully on domestic bank and non-bank borrowing across the full year, is worth tracking alongside Tanzania's separately reported external and domestic debt stock data (Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, Sections 2.6 and 3.3), which sits outside the scope of this revenue-and-expenditure-focused report but is a natural next step for TICGL/TERI's Government Budget series.

4. The Eight-Year Trend: Recurrent Spending Is Crowding Out Development Spending

A structural shift, not a one-year blip

Theme IV of IV

Single-year budget execution is one lens; the eight-year run of fiscal ratios to GDP from FY2017/18 to FY2024/25 is another, and it points to a more durable structural shift. Government revenue to GDP has been broadly stable to slightly rising, from 14.8% in FY2017/18 to 15.6% in FY2024/25 (with a dip to 13.7% in the COVID-affected FY2020/21). Current expenditure to GDP, by contrast, climbed steadily to a series-high 11.9% of GDP in FY2024/25 — its highest point in the eight years shown — while development expenditure to GDP fell to 6.9% of GDP, down from a peak of 9.2% in FY2021/22.

Table 5: Fiscal ratios to GDP, FY2017/18 – FY2024/25 (%)
Fiscal year	Revenue / GDP	Current Exp. / GDP	Development Exp. / GDP	Overall Balance / GDP
2017/18	14.8	10.2	6.6	-1.9
2018/19	14.3	10.7	6.5	-3.3
2019/20	15.0	10.1	7.1	-1.9
2020/21	13.7	9.9	7.8	-4.0
2021/22	14.9	9.8	9.2	-3.6
2022/23	15.0	11.0	7.4	-3.1
2023/24	14.7	10.8	7.2	-3.1
2024/25	15.6	11.9	6.9	-3.0

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table A1: Selected Economic Indicators, fiscal operations, items 4.1–4.6). Ratios computed on GDP at current market prices.

Revenue, Expenditure and the Overall Balance as Shares of GDP

Percent of GDP, FY2017/18 – FY2024/25

Read together, the ratio to GDP of current expenditure minus development expenditure — a rough gauge of how "recurrent-heavy" the budget has become — widened from 3.6 percentage points in FY2017/18 to 5.0 percentage points in FY2024/25, its widest point in the series. This lines up closely with what Theme 2 found in the FY2025/26 execution data: a wage bill and recurrent transfer overshoot financed partly at development expenditure's expense. The overall deficit has narrowed since its FY2021/22 peak of 4.1% of GDP, but at 3.0% of GDP in FY2024/25 it remains meaningfully wider than the 1.9% recorded in FY2017/18, even with revenue to GDP now higher than it was then.

Reconciling the two views

Stronger tax administration has genuinely lifted revenue collection, both in the FY2025/26 in-year data and in the modest upward drift of revenue to GDP over eight years. But that additional revenue has been largely absorbed by a growing wage bill and recurrent transfers rather than translating into either a materially smaller deficit or a larger development expenditure envelope. The practical policy question this raises is not whether Tanzania collects enough tax — collection is improving — but whether the current expenditure structure directs enough of that improvement toward the development spending that FYDP IV and Dira 2050 depend on.

05 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: Budgetary Operations in One Picture

Revenue collection is genuinely improving

Both the June 2026 monthly outturn and the full FY2025/26 year show tax revenue running comfortably ahead of target, led by income tax and import taxes.

Recurrent spending is absorbing the gains

The wage bill and other recurrent transfers overshot their original FY2025/26 budgets by 21.6% and 76.5% respectively, offsetting much of the revenue overperformance.

Development spending's share is shrinking

Development expenditure to GDP has fallen for three straight years from its FY2021/22 peak of 9.2% to 6.9% in FY2024/25, even as current expenditure to GDP hit a series high.

The deficit is narrower, but the mix has shifted

The overall balance to GDP has improved from its FY2021/22 low point, but at 3.0% of GDP it remains wider than FY2017/18's 1.9%, financed increasingly through a mix of foreign loans and domestic bank and non-bank borrowing.

06 — RecommendationsPolicy Directions on Budgetary Operations

Priority 1 — Tighten In-Year Wage and Transfer Control

Investigate the drivers behind the 21.6% wage bill overshoot and 76.5% overshoot in other goods, services and transfers relative to the original FY2025/26 budget, distinguishing one-off adjustments from recurring pressures.
Strengthen in-year expenditure ceilings for recurrent categories so that revenue overperformance does not translate automatically into recurrent spending overshoot.

Priority 2 — Protect Development Expenditure's Share

Set an explicit floor for development expenditure as a share of GDP or of total expenditure, to arrest its decline from the FY2021/22 peak of 9.2% of GDP toward FY2024/25's 6.9%.
Where revenue outperforms target in-year, prioritise topping up development allocations before topping up recurrent transfer lines.

Priority 3 — Sustain the Revenue Administration Gains

Continue the tax administration and compliance improvements behind income tax and import tax overperformance, since they are currently the main source of fiscal headroom.

Priority 4 — Monitor the Financing Mix

Track the foreign-versus-domestic financing split of the deficit alongside external and domestic debt stock data, given the shift toward foreign loans in strong-revenue months and continued reliance on domestic bank and non-bank borrowing across the year.

"Tanzania's revenue administration is delivering more than the budget assumed it would. The open question is not whether the money is being collected — it is being collected — but whether the expenditure side lets that extra revenue reach development spending, or whether it is absorbed before it gets there."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

07 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

Primary source

Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 — Table A2 (Central Government Operations, Cheques Issued, Tanzania Mainland), Table A1 (Selected Economic Indicators, fiscal operations items 4.1–4.6), and Charts 2.5.1 and 2.5.2 (Central Government Revenue and Expenditure in June). This report was produced as a companion to TICGL/TERI's Government Budget series, which draws separately on a 26-year Ministry of Finance monthly dataset.

Primary data: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026; Ministry of Finance, central government operations (cheques issued basis), Tanzania Mainland.
Method: Figures for June 2026 and the full FY2025/26 fiscal year are presented as published, in TZS billions rounded from the underlying millions in Table A2. Percentage comparisons ("% of budget", "% of estimate", "Actual/Budget") were computed by TICGL/TERI by dividing the stated actual figure by the stated budget or estimate figure. Fiscal ratios to GDP for FY2017/18–FY2024/25 are as published in Table A1 and are computed on GDP at current market prices.
Known limitations: "Cheques issued" figures can differ from cash-basis or accrual-basis fiscal accounts reported elsewhere, and the June 2026 and FY2025/26 figures are described as provisional in the source publication and may be revised in subsequent Bank of Tanzania releases. This report does not cover Tanzania's external or domestic debt stock, which the Bank of Tanzania reports separately and which TICGL/TERI may address in future analysis.
Related TICGL analysis: TICGL/TERI, "Tanzania Government Revenue & Expenditure, 2000-2026" — read here; "Tanzania Government Revenue & Tax Structure, 2000-2025" — read here; "Is Tanzania's Reliance on VAT Fueling Growth or Holding It Back?" — read here.

08 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

How much revenue did Tanzania's central government collect in June 2026?

Government resources reached TZS 4,658.2 billion in June 2026, 5.4% above the monthly target. Central government revenue alone was TZS 4,512.1 billion (96.9% of the total), and tax revenue reached TZS 3,733.2 billion — 12.5% above target — reflecting improvements in tax administration and compliance.

Did Tanzania's central government overspend or underspend in June 2026?

Central government expenditure came in below the monthly estimate, at TZS 4,720.0 billion against an estimate of TZS 4,979.8 billion (94.8%). Both recurrent expenditure (94.4% of estimate) and development expenditure (95.4% of estimate) were below plan, which the Bank of Tanzania attributed to aligning spending with available resources.

How did Tanzania's full FY2025/26 revenue and expenditure compare with the original budget?

Total revenue for the fiscal year July 2025 to June 2026 reached TZS 41,930.4 billion against an original budget of TZS 40,466.1 billion — 3.6% above budget, driven by tax revenue running 7.5% ahead of budget. Total expenditure was TZS 48,451.0 billion, close to the TZS 48,775.0 billion budget (99.3%), so the overall deficit closed at TZS 6,147.7 billion, about 15% narrower than the TZS 7,239.0 billion originally budgeted.

Which spending items grew fastest relative to Tanzania's original budget in FY2025/26?

The wage bill came in 21.6% above its original budget (TZS 13,279.3 billion actual versus TZS 10,917.5 billion budgeted), and other goods, services and transfers came in 76.5% above budget. These overshoots were partly offset by interest payments running 13.7% below budget and development expenditure landing close to plan at 97.5% of budget.

Is Tanzania's fiscal deficit narrowing or widening over the long run?

The overall budget balance to GDP ratio narrowed from a peak deficit of 4.1% of GDP in FY2021/22 to 3.0% of GDP in FY2024/25, but it remains wider than the 1.9% of GDP recorded in FY2017/18. Over the same period, current expenditure to GDP rose to a series-high 11.9% in FY2024/25 while development expenditure to GDP fell to 6.9%, well below its 9.2% peak in FY2021/22 — a structural shift toward recurrent spending.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Uendeshaji wa Bajeti ya Serikali Kuu Tanzania: Mapato, Matumizi na Uwiano wa Kibajeti. Ripoti hii ya TICGL/TERI inachambua takwimu za Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (Mapitio ya Kiuchumi ya Kila Mwezi, Agosti 2026) kuhusu uendeshaji wa bajeti ya Serikali Kuu — mwenendo wa mwezi Juni 2026, matokeo ya mwaka mzima wa fedha 2025/26 dhidi ya bajeti asilia, jinsi nakisi ilivyofadhiliwa, na mwenendo wa miaka minane (2017/18–2024/25) wa mapato, matumizi na uwiano wa kibajeti kama asilimia ya Pato la Taifa.

Matokeo makuu: Mnamo Juni 2026, Serikali ilikusanya mapato ya TZS bilioni 4,658.2, asilimia 5.4 zaidi ya lengo, huku mapato ya kodi yakizidi lengo kwa asilimia 12.5. Matumizi ya Juni yalikuwa chini kidogo ya makadirio (asilimia 94.8). Kwa mwaka mzima wa fedha 2025/26, mapato yalifikia TZS bilioni 41,930.4 (asilimia 103.6 ya bajeti asilia) na matumizi TZS bilioni 48,451.0 (asilimia 99.3 ya bajeti), hivyo nakisi ya jumla ilikuwa TZS bilioni 6,147.7 — ndogo kwa takribani asilimia 15 kuliko iliyopangwa awali. Hata hivyo, mshahara wa watumishi ulizidi bajeti asilia kwa asilimia 21.6, na matumizi mengine ya kawaida yalizidi kwa asilimia 76.5, huku gharama za riba na ruzuku zikiwa chini ya bajeti. Kwa mtazamo wa miaka minane, uwiano wa matumizi ya kawaida kwa Pato la Taifa umepanda hadi asilimia 11.9 (2024/25), kiwango cha juu zaidi katika kipindi hicho, wakati uwiano wa matumizi ya maendeleo umeshuka hadi asilimia 6.9, chini ya kilele cha asilimia 9.2 cha mwaka 2021/22.

Hitimisho kuu ni kwamba ukusanyaji wa mapato ya kodi Tanzania unaendelea kuimarika kwa kasi nzuri, lakini sehemu kubwa ya ongezeko hilo inaelekea kwenye matumizi ya kawaida — hasa mishahara na uhamisho — badala ya kuongeza wigo wa matumizi ya maendeleo au kupunguza nakisi kwa kiasi kikubwa zaidi. Hili ni jambo muhimu kwa mipango ya FYDP IV na Dira 2050, ambayo inategemea uwekezaji wa maendeleo unaoendana na ukuaji wa uchumi unaogusa jamii pana.

Mapato Juni 2026: TZS bilioni 4,658.2 — asilimia 105.4 ya lengo
Mapato ya Kodi Juni 2026: TZS bilioni 3,733.2 — asilimia 112.5 ya lengo
Nakisi ya Mwaka wa Fedha 2025/26: TZS bilioni 6,147.7 — ndogo kwa asilimia 15 kuliko bajeti
Mshahara wa Watumishi 2025/26: asilimia 121.6 ya bajeti asilia
Uwiano wa Matumizi ya Maendeleo kwa Pato la Taifa, 2024/25: asilimia 6.9 (chini ya kilele cha asilimia 9.2, 2021/22)

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Mapitio ya Kiuchumi ya Kila Mwezi, Agosti 2026; uchambuzi wa Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), kwa ajili ya TICGL, Septemba 2026.

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Tanzania's external accounts recorded a wider current account deficit in the year ending July 2026, but the story underneath that headline number is more encouraging than the widening alone suggests. Exports of goods and services grew faster than they have in recent years, led by gold and by a services sector that is increasingly earning its keep through transport (freight) receipts, not just tourism. Imports also grew, driven by capital goods, refined petroleum products and the freight costs of moving them — a pattern consistent with continued investment and industrial expansion rather than simple consumption growth.

This report reads Section 2.7 of the Bank of Tanzania's August 2026 Monthly Economic Review at two levels: the year-ending-July comparison for 2024, 2025 and 2026 (provisional), which captures the most recent momentum; and the calendar-year 2021–2025 Balance of Payments series, which shows where that momentum sits within a longer trend of a current account deficit that had been narrowing since its 2022 peak before ticking back up.

The current account deficit widened by 21.3% to USD 2,395.3 million in the year ending July 2026, from USD 1,975.4 million a year earlier, as a USD 3,018.0 million rise in goods imports outpaced a USD 2,828.3 million combined rise in exports of goods and services.
Exports of goods and services grew 16.5% to USD 19,985.8 million, with goods exports (up 20.7% to USD 11,951.7 million) growing faster than services receipts (up 10.7% to USD 8,034.1 million); gold alone supplied 47.4% of goods export earnings.
Within services receipts, transport is now growing faster than tourism. Transport (freight) receipts rose 29.7% to USD 3,221.5 million, while travel (tourism) receipts — still the largest single category — grew a more modest 1.6% to USD 4,292.8 million.
Imports of goods and services grew 18.3% to USD 20,807.4 million, led by capital and intermediate goods; refined white petroleum products alone rose 42.3% to USD 3,296.8 million, reflecting elevated global oil prices and sustained domestic demand.
Services payments grew a more modest 6.5% to USD 3,368.1 million, with transport (freight) payments up about 19.7% to USD 1,756.1 million — consistent with higher goods imports and elevated international shipping costs — while travel payments were essentially flat.
Reserves remain comfortably adequate. Gross official reserves of USD 6,199.6 million at end-July 2026 cover 4.8 months of projected imports, above the standard three-month benchmark and broadly unchanged from a year earlier.

📌

A companion to TICGL/TERI's fiscal monitoring work

This external sector piece is designed to be read alongside Tanzania's Central Government Budgetary Operations, drawn from the same Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, and alongside TICGL/TERI's broader Government Budget series covering revenue, tax structure and VAT. Together they give a fuller picture of Tanzania's macro-fiscal and external position in one publication cycle.

Read: Central Government Budgetary Operations →

🔬

About TERI — TICGL's Research Institute

This report was produced under the Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), TICGL's dedicated research arm covering public finance, external sector performance and Tanzania's broader economic development. It draws on the Bank of Tanzania's monthly publication cycle to keep TICGL/TERI's macro monitoring current, and forms part of TERI's wider Tanzania Works: The Political Economy of Shared Prosperity series, produced to be adapted directly into government, parliamentary and development-partner policy briefs.

Visit TERI — teri.ticgl.com →

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers From the External Sector

Goods Account Deficit

USD 5,487.6m

Widened 21.4% year-on-year

Services Account Surplus

USD 4,665.9m

Up 14.0% year-on-year

Services Receipts (Exports)

USD 8,034.1m

+10.7%; travel largest at USD 4,292.8m

Services Payments (Imports)

USD 3,368.1m

+6.5%; transport largest at USD 1,756.1m

Transport Receipts (Freight Exports)

USD 3,221.5m

+29.7% — fastest-growing services category

Gold Exports

USD 5,670.7m

+37.4%; 47.4% of goods export earnings

Primary Income Deficit

USD 1,958.4m

Narrowed 2.8%, on lower interest payments

Secondary Income Surplus

USD 384.7m

Narrowed 17.5%, on lower personal transfers

Current Account and Its Components, Year Ending July

USD millions — 2024, 2025 and 2026 (provisional)

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.7.1); TICGL/TERI presentation.

03 — MethodologyReading the External Sector Data

This report uses two complementary views of Tanzania's external accounts as published by the Bank of Tanzania. The first is the "year ending" cumulative view — the sum of the trailing twelve months to July 2024, July 2025 and July 2026 (provisional) — which is how the Bank of Tanzania itself frames current account, export and import performance in its Monthly Economic Review. The second is the calendar-year Balance of Payments series for 2021–2025, published separately in the Review's statistical tables, which gives a longer run for tracking structural trends. Because these two series use different reference windows (year-ending-July versus calendar year), this report keeps them in clearly labelled, separate charts rather than blending them into a single series.

How the figures were organised

The current account is broken into the goods account, the services account (receipts less payments), the primary income account (mainly investment income and compensation of employees) and the secondary income account (mainly transfers). Services receipts and payments are further split into travel (tourism), transport (freight and related services) and other services, following the Bank of Tanzania's own categorisation in Charts 2.7.3 and 2.7.5. Goods exports and imports are presented using the Bank of Tanzania's own "select" category breakdowns (Charts 2.7.2 and 2.7.4).

Why this analysis, why now

The current account deficit's headline widening can obscure a more differentiated picture underneath: goods and services are moving in somewhat different directions, and within services, receipts and payments are each being pulled by different categories. Isolating the current account, services receipts and services payments — as this report does — makes those distinctions visible in a way the Bank of Tanzania's own aggregate reporting does not always foreground.

1. The Current Account: A Wider Deficit, But Goods and Services Are Diverging

Deficit wider, but services surplus growing

Theme I of IV

Tanzania's current account deficit widened by 21.3% to USD 2,395.3 million in the year ending July 2026, from USD 1,975.4 million in the year ending July 2025. The Bank of Tanzania attributes this directly to a USD 3,018.0 million rise in goods imports — driven by investment-related and energy demand — that outweighed a combined USD 2,828.3 million rise in exports of goods and services.

Table 1: Current account components, year ending July (USD millions)
Item	2024	2025	2026p	% change 25→26
Goods account	-5,922.1	-4,521.1	-5,487.6	21.4%
Exports	7,923.4	9,900.2	11,951.7	20.7%
Imports	13,845.6	14,421.3	17,439.3	20.9%
Services account	4,176.3	4,094.7	4,665.9	14.0%
Receipts	6,630.7	7,257.3	8,034.1	10.7%
Payments	2,454.4	3,162.6	3,368.1	6.5%
Goods and services balance	-1,745.8	-426.4	-821.6	92.7%
Primary income balance	-1,689.7	-2,015.5	-1,958.4	-2.8%
Secondary income balance	616.0	466.4	384.7	-17.5%
Current account balance	-2,819.5	-1,975.4	-2,395.3	21.3%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.7.1). % change is 2026p versus 2025.

Two offsetting movements are worth separating from the headline. The primary income deficit actually narrowed by 2.8% to USD 1,958.4 million, mainly on lower interest payments to non-residents, and would on its own have pushed the current account toward balance. The secondary income surplus, however, narrowed by 17.5% to USD 384.7 million on lower personal transfers, working in the opposite direction. Neither move was large enough to offset the goods and services balance swinging from a USD 426.4 million deficit in 2025 to a USD 821.6 million deficit in 2026 — itself a near-doubling (92.7%) driven almost entirely by the goods account rather than services, which stayed in a growing surplus throughout.

TICGL reading

The services account is the current account's stabiliser, not its problem. It ran a growing surplus of USD 4,665.9 million in 2026, up 14.0% on the year, cushioning what would otherwise be an even wider deficit.
The goods account is where the deterioration is concentrated — its deficit widened by 21.4% as import growth (20.9%) outpaced export growth (20.7%) by a narrow but decisive margin.

2. Exports: Gold Leads Goods, Transport Leads Services Receipts

Broad-based export growth

Theme II of IV

Exports of goods and services grew 16.5% to USD 19,985.8 million in the year ending July 2026. Goods exports grew faster, up 20.7% to USD 11,951.7 million, owing to higher exports of gold, manufactured goods, tobacco and coffee. Gold alone rose 37.4% to USD 5,670.7 million, supplying 47.4% of goods export earnings and consolidating its position as Tanzania's principal source of foreign exchange.

Table 2: Selected goods exports, year ending July (USD millions)
Item	2025	2026p	% change
Gold	4,127.1	5,670.7	37.4%
Manufactured goods	1,517.3	2,215.5	46.0%
Tobacco	443.0	588.6	32.9%
Coffee	337.5	396.0	17.3%
Cashewnuts	527.6	479.3	-9.2%
Edible vegetables	369.3	339.9	-8.0%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Chart 2.7.2 and Table A6).

Services receipts grew more slowly, up 10.7% to USD 8,034.1 million, but the composition of that growth is the more interesting story for a country whose services exports have long been synonymous with tourism. Travel (tourism) receipts, still the largest category at USD 4,292.8 million, grew just 1.6% over the year. Transport receipts — largely freight earnings — grew 29.7% to USD 3,221.5 million, reflecting higher freight earnings on increased transit cargo volumes. Other services receipts grew 9.2% to USD 519.7 million.

Services Receipts by Category, Year Ending July

USD millions — 2024, 2025 and 2026 (provisional)

Top Goods Exports, Year Ending July

USD millions — 2025 vs 2026 (provisional)

TICGL reading

Transport receipts are the fastest-growing major export category on either the goods or services side at 29.7% growth — a signal that Tanzania's logistics and transit-trade position, not only its mining and tourism sectors, is becoming a meaningful foreign exchange earner in its own right.
Tourism's growth has plateaued relative to other export categories. At 1.6% growth, travel receipts are barely keeping pace with inflation, even as they remain the single largest services export category by value.

3. Imports: Petroleum and Capital Goods Lead, Freight Payments Follow

Investment-consistent, but costlier to move

Theme III of IV

Imports of goods and services grew 18.3% to USD 20,807.4 million in the year ending July 2026, driven mainly by capital goods, industrial supplies, refined petroleum products and freight services — a pattern the Bank of Tanzania links to continued investment and industrial expansion. Goods imports rose to USD 17,439.3 million, led by capital and intermediate goods; refined white petroleum products, which accounted for 18.9% of the goods import bill, rose 42.3% to USD 3,296.8 million, reflecting elevated global oil prices and sustained domestic demand.

Table 3: Selected goods imports, year ending July (USD millions)
Item	2025	2026p	% change
Industrial supplies	5,117.2	5,685.7	11.1%
Refined white petroleum products	2,316.3	3,296.8	42.3%
Freight	1,310.7	1,590.1	21.3%
Machinery and mechanical appliances	1,095.2	1,440.1	31.5%
Industrial transport equipment	1,184.4	1,350.3	14.0%
Electrical machinery and equipment	460.5	749.7	62.8%
Motor cars for household	409.5	466.5	13.9%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Chart 2.7.4 and Table A7).

Services payments grew more slowly than goods imports, up 6.5% to USD 3,368.1 million, but their composition mirrors the goods-side story. Transport payments — freight costs on Tanzania's own import bill — rose by around 19.7% to USD 1,756.1 million, mainly due to higher freight payments consistent with increased goods imports and elevated international shipping costs. Travel payments were essentially flat, up marginally to USD 678.7 million, while other services payments fell 8.8% to USD 933.4 million.

Services Payments by Category, Year Ending July

USD millions — 2024, 2025 and 2026 (provisional)

Top Goods Imports, Year Ending July

USD millions — 2025 vs 2026 (provisional)

TICGL reading

Freight costs are rising on both sides of the ledger — transport receipts are up 29.7% and transport payments are up about 19.7% — which is consistent with the Bank of Tanzania's own reporting elsewhere in the Review of elevated international shipping costs during the year.
Petroleum products remain Tanzania's single largest identifiable import cost pressure, at 42.3% growth and 18.9% of the entire goods import bill, making the current account sensitive to global oil price movements.

4. The 2021–2025 Trend: A Deficit That Had Been Narrowing Before It Widened Again

A longer improvement, a recent reversal

Theme IV of IV

Placing the year-ending-July figures in a longer context, the Bank of Tanzania's calendar-year Balance of Payments series shows Tanzania's current account deficit peaking at USD 5,482.2 million in 2022 before narrowing for three consecutive years to USD 2,049.4 million in 2025 (provisional) — a substantial improvement driven mainly by a steadily strengthening services balance and a goods deficit that, while still large, has been shrinking since its 2022 peak.

Table 4: Current account and its components, calendar years 2021–2025 (USD millions)
Year	Goods Balance	Services Balance	Primary Income	Secondary Income	Current Account
2021	-3,247.1	1,510.7	-1,191.6	553.7	-2,374.3
2022	-6,984.9	2,296.6	-1,393.2	599.3	-5,482.2
2023	-6,032.3	3,835.9	-1,496.6	732.5	-2,960.6
2024r	-5,074.0	4,051.7	-1,887.4	529.9	-2,379.8
2025p	-4,524.8	4,235.7	-2,050.1	289.9	-2,049.4

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table A5: Tanzania Balance of Payments). r denotes revised data; p denotes provisional data. Note: this calendar-year series uses a different reference window from the year-ending-July figures used elsewhere in this report, so the two should not be compared directly.

The Current Account and Its Components, 2021–2025

USD millions, calendar years — a longer view of the trend behind the year-ending-July figures above

The services balance more than doubled between 2021 (USD 1,510.7 million) and 2025 (USD 4,235.7 million), while the goods deficit — despite remaining the current account's largest single drag — narrowed from its 2022 peak. Set against this multi-year improvement, the year-ending-July 2026 widening documented in Themes 1 through 3 above reads less as a reversal of the underlying trend and more as a single-year setback driven by a specific and identifiable cause: a goods import surge tied to investment and energy demand, arriving faster than exports and services receipts could offset it.

Reconciling the two views

Both things can be true at once: Tanzania's current account position has genuinely improved over the 2021–2025 period, anchored by a strengthening services account, and the most recent year-ending-July data shows a real widening driven by import-side pressures. Whether the FY2026 widening proves temporary — as import-intensive investment spending completes — or marks the start of a new trend will depend largely on whether goods import growth moderates while gold and transport-services receipts continue their current pace.

05 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: The External Sector in One Picture

The current account deficit widened, driven by goods

A 21.3% widening to USD 2,395.3 million was almost entirely a goods-account story — the services, primary and secondary income accounts moved far less, or in the opposite direction.

Services are Tanzania's quiet stabiliser

The services balance has more than doubled since 2021 and grew a further 14.0% in the year ending July 2026, cushioning the goods deficit throughout.

Transport is the fastest-growing category on both sides

Freight receipts (+29.7%) and freight payments (+19.7%) both outpaced their respective totals, reflecting Tanzania's growing role as a transit-trade corridor and its exposure to global shipping costs.

Reserves give room to absorb the widening

At 4.8 months of import cover, gross official reserves remain comfortably above standard benchmarks, giving policymakers space to assess whether the FY2026 widening is temporary before reacting to it.

06 — RecommendationsPolicy Directions on the External Sector

Priority 1 — Diagnose the Goods Import Surge

Break down the FY2026 rise in capital and intermediate goods imports by project and sector to establish whether it reflects one-off investment activity likely to taper, or a structural rise in import intensity.

Priority 2 — Back the Transport-Services Growth Story

Support the logistics, port and transit-trade capacity behind the 29.7% growth in transport receipts, given its potential to diversify services exports beyond tourism.
Monitor freight cost pass-through on the import side, since transport payments are rising alongside transport receipts and both are exposed to global shipping-cost volatility.

Priority 3 — Manage Petroleum Import Exposure

Given refined petroleum products' 42.3% growth and 18.9% share of the goods import bill, stress-test the current account against further global oil price moves.

Priority 4 — Track the Deficit's Trajectory, Not Just Its Level

Distinguish, in ongoing monitoring, between the multi-year improvement visible in the 2021–2025 calendar-year data and the FY2026 year-ending-July uptick, so that policy responses match the underlying trend rather than the latest single data point.

"The current account's headline widening is a goods-import story, not a broad external deterioration. Tanzania's services account — and transport receipts within it — is doing more of the stabilising work than it gets credit for."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

07 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

Primary source

Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 — Table 2.7.1 (Current Account), Table 2.7.2 (Contribution to Change in Current Account Balance), Charts 2.7.1 through 2.7.5, and Table A5 (Tanzania Balance of Payments). This report was produced as a companion to TICGL/TERI's Central Government Budgetary Operations report and Government Budget series.

Primary data: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026; Tanzania Revenue Authority and banks (underlying trade and services data).
Method: Year-ending-July figures for 2024, 2025 and 2026 are presented as published; percentage changes are as reported by the Bank of Tanzania where stated, or computed by TICGL/TERI by comparing the 2026 (provisional) figure with the 2025 figure where not explicitly stated. Calendar-year 2021–2025 figures are as published in Table A5 and use a different reference window from the year-ending-July series, so the two are presented in separate charts and tables rather than combined.
Known limitations: Figures for 2026 (and, for Table A5, 2024 and 2025) are marked provisional or revised in the source publication and may be updated in subsequent Bank of Tanzania releases. This report does not cover the interbank foreign exchange market or exchange rate movements, which the Bank of Tanzania reports separately under financial markets, nor Tanzania's external and domestic debt stock, which is reported separately under debt developments.
Related TICGL analysis: TICGL/TERI, "Tanzania's Central Government Budgetary Operations: Revenue, Expenditure and the Fiscal Balance" — read here; "Tanzania Government Revenue & Expenditure, 2000-2026" — read here; "Is Tanzania's Reliance on VAT Fueling Growth or Holding It Back?" — read here.

08 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

What is Tanzania's current account deficit?

Tanzania's current account deficit widened by 21.3% to USD 2,395.3 million in the year ending July 2026, from USD 1,975.4 million in the corresponding period of 2025, according to the Bank of Tanzania.

Why did Tanzania's current account deficit widen?

Goods imports rose by USD 3,018.0 million in the year ending July 2026, driven by investment-related and energy demand, which outweighed a combined USD 2,828.3 million increase in exports of goods and services over the same period.

What drove growth in Tanzania's services export receipts?

Transport receipts rose by 29.7% to USD 3,221.5 million in the year ending July 2026, reflecting higher freight earnings on increased transit cargo volumes, while travel (tourism) receipts, the largest services category, grew a more modest 1.6% to USD 4,292.8 million.

What is driving growth in Tanzania's services import payments?

Transport payments rose by about 19.7% to USD 1,756.1 million in the year ending July 2026, mainly due to higher freight payments consistent with increased goods imports and elevated international shipping costs, while travel payments were roughly flat.

Are Tanzania's foreign exchange reserves adequate?

Gross official foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 6,199.6 million at the end of July 2026, equivalent to 4.8 months of projected imports of goods and services, which the Bank of Tanzania describes as underscoring external stability and which sits above the standard three-month import cover benchmark.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Mwenendo wa Sekta ya Nje ya Tanzania: Akaunti ya Sasa, Mauzo na Manunuzi ya Nje. Ripoti hii ya TICGL/TERI inachambua takwimu za Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (Mapitio ya Kiuchumi ya Kila Mwezi, Agosti 2026) kuhusu sekta ya nje — akaunti ya sasa (current account), mauzo ya nje ya bidhaa na huduma (ikijikita kwenye mapato ya huduma kwa aina), na manunuzi ya nje ya bidhaa na huduma (ikijikita kwenye malipo ya huduma kwa aina).

Matokeo makuu: Nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa iliongezeka kwa asilimia 21.3 hadi Dola za Marekani milioni 2,395.3 kwa mwaka unaoishia Julai 2026, ikisukumwa na ongezeko la manunuzi ya bidhaa za nje (milioni 3,018.0) lililozidi ongezeko la pamoja la mauzo ya bidhaa na huduma (milioni 2,828.3). Mauzo ya nje yaliongezeka kwa asilimia 16.5 hadi milioni 19,985.8, yakiongozwa na dhahabu (ongezeko la asilimia 37.4) na mapato ya usafirishaji (transport) yaliyoongezeka kwa asilimia 29.7 — kasi zaidi kuliko utalii uliokua kwa asilimia 1.6 tu. Manunuzi ya nje yaliongezeka kwa asilimia 18.3 hadi milioni 20,807.4, yakiongozwa na bidhaa za mafuta ya petroli zilizosafishwa (ongezeko la asilimia 42.3) na malipo ya usafirishaji (freight) yaliyoongezeka kwa asilimia 19.7 kutokana na gharama kubwa za usafirishaji duniani. Akiba ya fedha za kigeni ilibaki imara katika Dola milioni 6,199.6, sawa na miezi 4.8 ya uagizaji, juu ya kiwango cha chini kinachohitajika.

Hitimisho kuu ni kwamba, ijapokuwa nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa imeongezeka mwaka huu, hali hii inatokea ndani ya mwenendo mrefu wa uboreshaji tangu kilele cha nakisi mwaka 2022. Sekta ya huduma, hasa mapato ya usafirishaji, inaendelea kuimarika na kusaidia kupunguza pengo la biashara ya bidhaa. Sera zinazolenga kuboresha usafirishaji, kusimamia gharama za mafuta ya petroli, na kuchunguza chanzo cha ongezeko la manunuzi ya bidhaa za uwekezaji ni muhimu kwa uendelevu wa sekta ya nje.

Nakisi ya Akaunti ya Sasa (Julai 2026): Dola milioni 2,395.3 — ongezeko la asilimia 21.3
Mauzo ya Bidhaa na Huduma: Dola milioni 19,985.8 — ongezeko la asilimia 16.5
Manunuzi ya Bidhaa na Huduma: Dola milioni 20,807.4 — ongezeko la asilimia 18.3
Mapato ya Usafirishaji (Transport Receipts): Dola milioni 3,221.5 — ongezeko la asilimia 29.7
Akiba ya Fedha za Kigeni: Dola milioni 6,199.6 — sawa na miezi 4.8 ya uagizaji

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Mapitio ya Kiuchumi ya Kila Mwezi, Agosti 2026; uchambuzi wa Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), kwa ajili ya TICGL, Septemba 2026.

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

In July 2026, the Bank of Tanzania raised the Central Bank Rate (CBR) from 5.75% to 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, aiming to contain inflationary pressure building from fuel, fertilizer and transport costs. That single policy move rippled through two markets TICGL tracks closely for clients structuring shilling-denominated financing: the government securities market, where investors re-priced longer-dated bonds sharply higher, and the interbank cash market, where banks redistributed shilling liquidity at a pace more than double the previous month.

This briefing unpacks both markets using the Bank of Tanzania's own auction, yield and turnover data for July 2026, set against a full thirteen-month trend from July 2025.

Treasury bill auctions were heavily oversubscribed. A combined tender of TZS 580 billion drew bids of TZS 1,287.6 billion — more than double — while the weighted average yield eased to 4.74%.
The bond yield curve steepened sharply. The 20-year Treasury bond yield jumped 90 basis points to 11.33%, widening the 2-year to 20-year spread to 2.93 percentage points from 2.07.
Short-term bill yields sit at multi-year lows even as the CBR rises, while the 364-day bill has reversed course and is climbing — a sign the market is pricing in tighter policy ahead.
Interbank cash market turnover more than doubled to TZS 5,627 billion from TZS 2,508.7 billion in June, yet the overall interbank rate stayed close to the policy corridor.
Government domestic debt rose modestly to TZS 39,472.2 billion, driven by bond issuance for development financing, with commercial banks and pension funds remaining the dominant creditors.

📊

Track these markets in real time on TICGL's Business Intelligence Dashboard

Yields, auction results and liquidity conditions move month to month. TICGL's Tanzania Business Intelligence Dashboard lets treasurers, fund managers and researchers follow these indicators continuously, alongside the wider macroeconomic picture covered in TICGL's research.

Open the Tanzania Business Intelligence Dashboard →

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers From July 2026

T-bill Tender / Bids / Accepted

580 / 1,287.6 / 513.4

TZS billions, combined July auctions

T-bond Tender / Bids / Accepted

684.9 / 1,466.2 / 641.9

TZS billions, 2/10/20-year auctions

Overall Interbank Rate

6.57%

▲ +57 bps from 6.00% in June

7-Day Tenor Share of Turnover

47.6%

Largest single tenor bucket

2Y–20Y Bond Spread

2.93 pp

Widened from 2.07 pp (+86 bps)

Domestic Debt Stock, Jul-26

TZS 39,472.2bn

Up from TZS 39,325.8bn in June

IFEM Turnover, Jul-26

USD 227.1m

Up from USD 193.3m in June

Lombard Rate (Corridor Ceiling)

7.75%

Held constant since Jul-25

Policy Corridor vs. Overall Interbank Cash Market Rate

Monthly average, % — July 2025 to July 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A4 — Interest Rates Structure, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026.

03 — MethodologyReading the Bank of Tanzania's Money and Debt Market Data

The Bank of Tanzania publishes monthly auction results for Treasury bills and bonds, daily-average interbank cash market rates by tenor, and end-of-month stock and turnover figures for the interbank foreign exchange market and government domestic debt. This briefing compiles those series — drawn from Table A4 (Interest Rates Structure), Table 2.4.1 (Government Securities Yields), Chart 2.6.2 (Issued Government Securities for Financing Purposes), and Tables 2.6.5–2.6.6 (Government Domestic Debt) — into a single thirteen-month trend view, so that a single month's auction result can be read against the pattern that preceded it.

How the charts were built

Monthly weighted-average yields for each Treasury bill tenor (35, 91, 182 and 364 days) and each Treasury bond tenor (2, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years) were plotted from July 2025 through July 2026. Interbank cash market rates, the repo/reverse-repo rate and the Lombard rate were plotted on the same monthly basis to show the policy corridor in context. Auction tender, bid and acceptance amounts, and domestic debt stock by instrument and creditor category, are presented for the specific months the Bank of Tanzania reported them.

Why this briefing, why now

A single CBR decision does not move every market the same way or at the same speed. Seeing the bill curve, the bond curve, and interbank turnover side by side in the same month shows where the July 2026 rate hike has already been priced in, and where the effect on credit growth — as the Bank itself notes — is still expected "with a lag."

1. Policy Rate & the Interbank Corridor

Well contained despite the hike

Theme I of V

The CBR sits at the centre of a corridor: the Bank uses the Lombard rate as an upper ceiling and the repo/reverse-repo rate to anchor short-term liquidity operations, keeping the 7-day interbank cash market rate within 150 basis points either side of the CBR — a band of 4.75%–7.75% from July 2026.

Overall interbank cash market rate

6.57%

▲ +57 bps from 6.00% in June

Repo / reverse repo rate

6.25%

Raised in line with CBR

Lombard rate (corridor ceiling)

7.75%

Held constant since Jul-25

TICGL reading

Liquidity was managed mainly through reverse repurchase auctions during July, keeping the 7-day rate close to the CBR despite the sharp rise in turnover — a sign the Bank absorbed the extra liquidity rather than letting it push rates outside the policy corridor.

2. Treasury Bills: Oversubscribed, and Short Yields at Multi-Year Lows

Curve diverging by tenor

Theme II of V

July 2026 auctions were heavily oversubscribed. The Bank offered a combined tender of TZS 580 billion across two Treasury bills auctions; bids reached TZS 1,287.6 billion — more than double the tender — of which TZS 513.4 billion was accepted for government financing and liquidity management.

Combined tender size

TZS 580.0bn

Total bids received

TZS 1,287.6bn

2.2x oversubscription

Amount accepted

TZS 513.4bn

Treasury Bill Yields by Tenor

Weighted average yield, % — July 2025 to July 2026

Table 1: Treasury bill yields by tenor, selected months
Tenor	Jan-26	Mar-26	May-26	Jun-26	Jul-26	12-mo change
35-day	5.36	4.20	3.23	2.82	2.34	-4.16 pp
91-day	5.73	4.23	3.78	3.56	3.40	-4.06 pp
182-day	5.85	5.69	5.23	4.98	4.74	-3.50 pp
364-day	6.21	5.80	5.63	6.65	7.07	-1.06 pp
Overall weighted average	5.89	5.21	4.74	4.83	4.74	-3.39 pp

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A4 — Interest Rates Structure.

TICGL reading

An inverted-then-steepening bill curve — the long tenor rising while short tenors keep falling — is often an early signal that the market is pricing in tighter policy ahead, consistent with the CBR hike that took effect the same month.

3. Treasury Bonds: A Curve That Steepened Sharply

Long-end financing costs firming

Theme III of V

The Bank also conducted three Treasury bond auctions in July 2026 — for 2-year, 10-year and 20-year tenors — with a combined tender of TZS 684.9 billion. Bids reached TZS 1,466.2 billion, of which TZS 641.9 billion was accepted. Long-dated yields moved up sharply, steepening the curve.

Table 2: Government securities yields, previous auction vs. July 2026
Instrument	Previous auction (%)	Jul-2026 (%)	Change (bps)
Treasury bond, 2-year	8.36	8.40	+4
Treasury bond, 10-year	10.39	10.87	+48
Treasury bond, 20-year	10.43	11.33	+90
Spread, 2-year to 20-year	2.07 pp	2.93 pp	+86

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.4.1 — Government Securities Yields.

Treasury Bond Yields by Tenor, 13-Month Trend

Auction-weighted average yield, % — July 2025 to July 2026

Curve Steepening: Previous Auction vs. July 2026

2, 10 and 20-year Treasury bond yields, %

Monthly Issuance for Financing Purposes

Government reliance on bonds over bills for domestic financing has been the dominant pattern over the past year, though July 2026 saw a marked shift toward bonds again after several lighter months.

Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Bonds Issued

Billions of TZS, monthly — July 2025 to July 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 2.6.2 — Issued Government Securities for Financing Purposes. July 2026: T-bills TZS 178.9bn, T-bonds TZS 502.5bn. Domestic debt service, Jul-26: TZS 566.4bn.

4. Interbank Cash Market: Liquidity More Than Doubled

Ample, not tight

Theme IV of V

The interbank cash market is where banks redistribute shilling liquidity among themselves — overnight through to 181-day tenors — and it remains the Bank's principal channel for transmitting monetary policy. Total turnover jumped to TZS 5,627 billion in July 2026, from TZS 2,508.7 billion in June, with 7-day transactions making up nearly half of all activity.

Total turnover, Jul-26

TZS 5,627bn

▲ +124% vs June (TZS 2,508.7bn)

7-day tenor share

47.6%

Largest single tenor bucket

Overall interbank rate

6.57%

▲ +57 bps from 6.00%

Turnover, June vs. July 2026

Billions of TZS

Turnover by Tenor, July 2026

Share of total interbank turnover

Interbank Rates by Tenor

Tenor	Jan-26	Mar-26	May-26	Jun-26	Jul-26
Overnight	6.13	6.17	5.94	5.53	5.92
2 to 7 days	6.34	6.25	5.96	5.90	6.23
8 to 14 days	6.74	6.53	6.48	6.46	6.90
15 to 30 days	7.06	6.85	6.58	6.64	7.31
91 to 180 days	6.75	8.07	7.27	7.07	6.92
Overall interbank rate	6.40	6.32	6.14	6.00	6.57

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A4 — Interest Rates Structure.

TICGL reading

Liquidity was managed mainly through reverse repurchase auctions during July, keeping the 7-day rate close to the CBR despite the sharp rise in turnover — a sign the Bank absorbed the extra liquidity rather than letting it push rates outside the policy corridor.

The foreign exchange leg of the interbank market was calmer by comparison: turnover in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) rose to USD 227.1 million from USD 193.3 million in June, with the Bank conducting net sales of USD 110.3 million to manage volatility. The shilling averaged TZS 2,653.52 per USD in July, a mild 0.8% monthly depreciation but a 0.5% annual appreciation.

5. Government Domestic Debt: Who Holds It, and How

Securities-heavy, bank & pension-fund dominated

Theme V of V

Government domestic debt stock rose to TZS 39,472.2 billion at the end of July 2026, from TZS 39,325.8 billion the previous month, driven largely by bond issuance for development financing.

Domestic Debt by Instrument

Billions of TZS, securitised vs. non-securitised debt

Domestic Debt by Creditor, Jul-2026

Billions of TZS

Creditor category	Jul-25 (TZS bn)	Jun-26 (TZS bn)	Jul-26 (TZS bn)	Jul-26 share
Commercial banks	10,176.3	11,320.8	11,450.6	29.0%
Pension funds	9,328.8	10,399.0	10,491.4	26.6%
Bank of Tanzania	6,799.3	7,197.1	6,819.7	17.3%
Others (private companies, individuals, non-residents)	6,461.3	7,547.4	7,792.9	19.7%
Insurance	1,808.4	2,022.8	2,063.0	5.2%
BOT's special funds	777.3	838.6	854.6	2.2%
Total (excl. liquidity papers)	35,351.4	39,325.8	39,472.2	100%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.6.6 — Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category.

06 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: The Month in One Picture

Long-end rates have re-priced

The 20-year Treasury bond yield jumped 90 basis points in a single auction — the sharpest move on the curve. Issuers and long-term borrowers should expect financing costs on shilling debt to firm up before they ease.

Short-term paper still looks cheap

The 35-day and 91-day bill yields are at their lowest in over a year, reflecting strong demand for near-term, liquid instruments even as the policy rate rises.

Banking-sector liquidity is ample, not tight

A doubling of interbank turnover alongside a well-contained interbank rate suggests banks have plenty of shillings to lend each other; the CBR hike's effect on credit growth is expected with a lag rather than immediately.

Domestic debt growth stayed modest

Despite heavier bond issuance for financing purposes, the domestic debt stock grew only marginally month-on-month, with commercial banks and pension funds continuing to anchor demand.

07 — ApplicationWho This Matters To

Corporate Treasurers

Weigh short-tenor Treasury bills, now at multi-year low yields, against holding cash or shilling deposits.
Revisit long-term shilling borrowing plans in light of the steeper bond curve before locking in new facilities.

Pension Funds & Insurers

Reassess fixed-income portfolio duration given the widened 2-year to 20-year spread and higher long-end yields.
Note that pension funds and insurers together already hold roughly a third of government domestic debt.

Banks & Non-Bank Lenders

Factor the CBR increase into new shilling credit pricing, while recognising the effect is expected to show up with a lag.
Ample interbank liquidity suggests near-term funding costs should stay manageable despite the policy tightening.

PPP Structurers & Development Partners

Update cost-of-capital assumptions in feasibility studies to reflect the higher long-end government bond yields.
Monitor the government's financing mix (bills vs. bonds) as an indicator of near-term fiscal financing conditions.

"Tanzania's July 2026 rate hike moved through its money markets in stages, not all at once: the bill curve had already softened at the short end, the bond curve reacted immediately at the long end, and the interbank market simply absorbed the extra liquidity without a fight. Reading only one of these three tells an incomplete story."

— TICGL Directorate of Economic Research and Policy

08 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

Primary source

TICGL Directorate of Economic Research and Policy analysis of the Bank of Tanzania's Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 edition (data through July 2026) — specifically Table A4 (Interest Rates Structure), Table 2.4.1 (Government Securities Yields), Chart 2.6.2 (Issued Government Securities for Financing Purposes), and Tables 2.6.5–2.6.6 (Government Domestic Debt).

Primary data: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, covering data through July 2026.
Method: Monthly Treasury bill and bond yields by tenor, interbank cash market rates, and domestic debt stock figures compiled into thirteen-month trend series (July 2025–July 2026) and month-specific auction/turnover comparisons.
Known limitations: Figures for July 2026 are provisional (denoted "p" by the Bank of Tanzania) and subject to revision in subsequent monthly reviews. Interbank turnover by individual tenor beyond the 7-day share is not separately reported in the source and is therefore not broken out here.

09 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

Why did Tanzania's Central Bank Rate rise in July 2026?

The Bank of Tanzania raised the Central Bank Rate (CBR) from 5.75% to 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026 to contain emerging inflationary pressure, including potential second-round effects from elevated energy, fertilizer and transport costs.

How oversubscribed were Tanzania's Treasury bill auctions in July 2026?

The Bank of Tanzania offered a combined tender of TZS 580 billion across two Treasury bills auctions in July 2026. Bids reached TZS 1,287.6 billion — more than double the amount offered — of which TZS 513.4 billion was accepted, at a weighted average yield of 4.74%.

How much did Tanzania's Treasury bond yields rise in July 2026?

The 20-year Treasury bond yield rose 90 basis points to 11.33% from 10.43%, the 10-year rose 48 basis points to 10.87%, and the 2-year rose 4 basis points to 8.40%, steepening the yield curve and widening the 2-year to 20-year spread to 2.93 percentage points.

Why did Tanzania's interbank cash market turnover more than double in July 2026?

Total interbank cash market turnover rose to TZS 5,627 billion in July 2026 from TZS 2,508.7 billion in June, as banks redistributed ample shilling liquidity among themselves. The Bank of Tanzania managed this mainly through reverse repurchase auctions, keeping the overall interbank rate close to the policy corridor despite the surge in volume.

Who holds most of Tanzania's government domestic debt?

As of July 2026, commercial banks held the largest share of government domestic debt at 29.0%, followed by pension funds at 26.6%, the Bank of Tanzania at 17.3%, and other holders including private companies, individuals and non-residents at 19.7%.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Soko la Hatifungani za Serikali na Soko la Fedha Baina ya Benki, Julai 2026 — Mnamo Julai 2026, Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT) iliongeza Riba ya Benki Kuu (CBR) kutoka asilimia 5.75 hadi 6.25 kwa robo mwaka inayoishia Septemba 2026, ikilenga kudhibiti mfumuko wa bei unaotokana na gharama za nishati, mbolea na usafirishaji.

Matokeo makuu: Katika soko la hatifungani za Serikali, minada ya dhamana za muda mfupi (Treasury bills) ilipokewa vizuri sana — zabuni zilifikia TZS bilioni 1,287.6 dhidi ya lengo la TZS bilioni 580, na wastani wa riba ulishuka hadi asilimia 4.74. Hata hivyo, dhamana za muda mrefu (Treasury bonds) ziliongezeka kwa kasi: riba ya miaka 20 ilipanda hadi asilimia 11.33 kutoka asilimia 10.43. Katika soko la fedha baina ya benki, kiwango cha mauzo kiliongezeka zaidi ya mara mbili hadi TZS bilioni 5,627 kutoka TZS bilioni 2,508.7 mwezi Juni, huku riba ya jumla ikiwa asilimia 6.57 — ikionesha ukwasi wa kutosha katika mfumo wa benki.

Deni la ndani la Serikali liliongezeka kidogo hadi TZS bilioni 39,472.2 mwishoni mwa Julai 2026, likichangiwa na utoaji wa hatifungani kwa ajili ya miradi ya maendeleo. Benki za biashara na mifuko ya pensheni bado ndio wamiliki wakubwa wa deni hilo la ndani.

CBR: asilimia 6.25 (kutoka 5.75) kwa robo inayoishia Septemba 2026
Riba ya hatifungani ya miaka 20: asilimia 11.33 (kutoka 10.43)
Mauzo ya soko la fedha baina ya benki: TZS bilioni 5,627 (ongezeko la zaidi ya mara mbili)
Deni la ndani la Serikali: TZS bilioni 39,472.2 mwishoni mwa Julai 2026

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, Agosti 2026. Uchambuzi: TICGL Directorate of Economic Research and Policy.

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Tanzania's bank lending and deposit rates moved only modestly in July 2026 on average — but averages hide a more interesting story underneath. The overall shilling lending rate eased slightly to 14.85%, while the overall time deposit rate edged up to 8.78%, and the gap between the two widened to 6.20 percentage points, its widest point since at least January 2026. Underneath that headline, different loan tenors and deposit terms moved in noticeably different directions.

This briefing unpacks lending and deposit rates by tenor, in both shillings and foreign currency, using the Bank of Tanzania's own data for July 2026, set against a full thirteen-month trend from July 2025.

The lending-deposit spread widened to 6.20 percentage points, up 54 basis points from June — the sharpest one-month widening in the series.
Medium-term shilling loans (1-2 years) are the most expensive standard tenor at 16.24%, even after easing from a high of 17.19% in April 2026.
Negotiated rates for prime borrowers rose to 12.04%, roughly 2.8 percentage points below the overall lending rate — a reminder of how much a borrower's negotiating position matters.
Deposit rates are far from uniform: ordinary savings accounts pay just 2.90%, while 12-month fixed deposits pay more than triple that at 9.34%.
Dollar borrowing remains markedly cheaper than shilling borrowing — 8.48% for foreign currency loans versus 14.85% for shilling loans, a gap of roughly 6.4 percentage points.

🔗

Read this alongside TICGL's Government Securities & Interbank Cash Market briefing

Lending and deposit rates do not move in isolation — they sit downstream of the same Central Bank Rate decision, Treasury yields, and interbank liquidity conditions covered in TICGL's companion briefing on July 2026's money and debt markets. Together, the two pieces give a fuller picture of the cost of shilling capital right now.

Read: Tanzania's Government Securities & Interbank Cash Market →

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers From July 2026

Savings Deposit Rate

2.90%

Flat vs June, lowest of all deposit types

12-Month Deposit Rate

9.34%

▼ from 9.72% in June

Short-term Lending (≤1yr)

15.54%

▲ from 15.38% in June

Medium-term Lending (1-2yr)

16.24%

Most expensive standard tenor

Negotiated Deposit Rate

10.99%

▼ from 11.17% in June

FX Overall Lending Rate

8.48%

▼ from 9.03% in June

FX Overall Deposit Rate

4.11%

▼ from 4.30% in June

Shilling vs. Dollar Lending Gap

6.37 pp

14.85% vs 8.48%, July 2026

Overall Lending Rate vs. Overall Time Deposit Rate (Shilling)

Monthly average, % — July 2025 to July 2026

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A4 — Interest Rates Structure, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026.

03 — MethodologyReading the Bank of Tanzania's Rate Data

The Bank of Tanzania publishes monthly average lending and deposit rates in two currencies: Tanzanian shillings and foreign currency (predominantly US dollars). Shilling rates are further broken down by loan tenor (short-term up to 1 year, medium-term 1-2 and 2-3 years, long-term 3-5 years, and term loans over 5 years) and by deposit term (savings, and fixed deposits from 1 to 24 months), alongside separate "negotiated" rates that reflect what banks' strongest, most creditworthy customers actually pay or earn.

How the charts were built

Monthly rates for each lending tenor and each deposit term, in both shillings and foreign currency, were plotted from July 2025 through July 2026, drawn from Table A4 (Interest Rates Structure) and Table 2.3.1 (Lending and Deposit Interest Rates). The lending-deposit spread shown in Theme 1 follows the Bank of Tanzania's own definition: the short-term (up to 1 year) lending rate minus the 12-month deposit rate.

Why this briefing, why now

A single "overall lending rate" headline can mask very different realities for different borrowers: a term loan over 5 years, a working-capital facility under 1 year, and a negotiated rate for a large corporate client can differ by several percentage points in the same month. Breaking the averages apart by tenor is what actually informs a financing decision.

1. Lending vs. Deposit Rates: A Spread That Keeps Widening

Widest spread since January 2026

Theme I of V

The overall shilling lending rate eased to 14.85% in July 2026, from 15.22% in June, while the overall time deposit rate rose to 8.78%, from 8.69%. Read alone, that looks like good news for both sides. But the Bank of Tanzania's official spread metric — short-term lending (up to 1 year) minus the 12-month deposit rate — tells a different story: it widened to 6.20 percentage points, up 54 basis points from 5.66 in June, because the 12-month deposit rate fell faster (to 9.34% from 9.72%) than the short-term lending rate moved.

Lending–Deposit Spread, 13-Month Trend

Short-term lending rate minus 12-month deposit rate, percentage points

Table 1: Key lending and deposit rates, Jan-2026 to Jul-2026 (%)
Rate	Jan-26	Mar-26	May-26	Jun-26	Jul-26
Savings deposit rate	2.94	2.89	2.85	2.90	2.90
Overall time deposit rate	8.33	8.33	8.43	8.69	8.78
12-month deposit rate	9.70	9.60	10.17	9.72	9.34
Negotiated deposit rate	11.74	11.57	11.25	11.17	10.99
Overall lending rate	15.10	15.11	15.32	15.22	14.85
Short-term lending (up to 1yr)	15.49	15.45	15.38	15.38	15.54
Negotiated lending rate	12.25	12.21	11.90	11.93	12.04
Lending–deposit spread	5.79	5.85	5.22	5.66	6.20

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.3.1 — Lending and Deposit Interest Rates.

TICGL reading

A widening spread driven by a falling deposit rate, rather than a rising lending rate, is a subtly different story for policy: it says less about credit risk pricing tightening and more about banks having ample liquidity to fund loans without needing to compete as hard for term deposits — consistent with the ample interbank liquidity TICGL documented in its companion briefing this month.

2. Lending Rates by Tenor: Medium-Term Money Costs Most

Non-linear across the curve

Theme II of V

Shilling lending rates do not rise smoothly with tenor the way government bond yields do. In July 2026, medium-term loans of 1-2 years were the most expensive standard tenor at 16.24%, more expensive than both shorter loans (15.54% for up to 1 year) and longer ones (13.79% for 3-5 years) — a shape that has held broadly true across the past year.

Shilling Lending Rate by Tenor, 13-Month Trend

Monthly average, % — July 2025 to July 2026

Table 2: Shilling lending rate by tenor, selected months (%)
Tenor	Jan-26	Mar-26	May-26	Jun-26	Jul-26	12-mo change
Short-term (up to 1 year)	15.49	15.45	15.38	15.38	15.54	+0.03 pp
Medium-term (1-2 years)	16.73	16.53	17.11	17.10	16.24	-0.17 pp
Medium-term (2-3 years)	14.97	15.31	15.60	15.19	14.81	-0.41 pp
Long-term (3-5 years)	14.05	13.95	14.43	14.38	13.79	-0.60 pp
Term loans (over 5 years)	14.24	14.30	14.08	14.03	13.88	-0.40 pp
Overall lending rate	15.10	15.11	15.32	15.22	14.85	-0.31 pp
Negotiated lending rate	12.25	12.21	11.90	11.93	12.04	-0.52 pp

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A4 — Interest Rates Structure. 12-month change measured against July 2025.

Overall vs. Negotiated Lending Rate

Monthly average, % — July 2025 to July 2026

TICGL reading

The consistent ~2.5-3 percentage point gap between the overall and negotiated lending rate is a useful negotiating benchmark: it is roughly what a well-collateralised, low-risk borrower with strong bargaining power can expect to save relative to the average posted rate.

3. Deposit Rates by Tenor: Savers Are Rewarded for Locking In

Clear premium for longer terms

Theme III of V

Unlike lending rates, deposit rates in Tanzania rise fairly consistently with the length of time a saver commits their money. Ordinary savings accounts — instant-access, no fixed term — paid just 2.90% in July 2026, while a 12-month fixed deposit paid more than three times as much, at 9.34%.

Shilling Deposit Rate by Term, 13-Month Trend

Monthly average, % — July 2025 to July 2026

Overall vs. Negotiated Deposit Rate

Monthly average, % — July 2025 to July 2026

TICGL reading

Negotiated deposit rates — available to large or strategically important depositors — have consistently outpaced even the 12-month standard rate, at 10.99% in July 2026. For treasury managers with flexibility over placement size and tenor, that gap is worth actively negotiating rather than accepting posted rates.

4. Foreign Currency Lending & Deposit Rates

Cheaper, but with FX risk attached

Theme IV of V

Foreign currency (largely US dollar) lending and deposit rates sit on their own, structurally lower curve. The overall FX lending rate was 8.48% in July 2026, down from 9.03% in June, while the overall FX deposit rate was 4.11%, down from 4.30%.

FX Overall Lending vs. FX Overall Deposit Rate

Monthly average, % — July 2025 to July 2026

FX Lending Rate by Tenor

Monthly average, % — July 2025 to July 2026

Table 3: Foreign currency lending and deposit rates, selected months (%)
Rate	Jan-26	Mar-26	May-26	Jun-26	Jul-26
Savings deposit rate (FX)	0.77	1.22	1.06	1.64	1.65
Overall time deposit rate (FX)	4.18	4.26	4.47	4.30	4.11
12-month deposit rate (FX)	3.82	4.35	5.59	4.57	4.65
Overall lending rate (FX)	8.57	8.70	8.72	9.03	8.48
Short-term lending, up to 1yr (FX)	10.00	10.00	9.95	9.99	10.02
Long-term lending, 3-5yrs (FX)	8.64	9.09	9.08	9.09	7.96

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table A4 — Interest Rates Structure, Foreign Currency section.

5. Shilling vs. Dollar: The Cost of Credit, Side by Side

A persistent ~6-point gap

Theme V of V

Placed side by side, the gap between shilling and dollar borrowing costs in Tanzania is large and persistent — not a one-month anomaly. Shilling lending has cost roughly double what dollar lending costs throughout the past thirteen months.

Domestic (Shilling) vs. Foreign Currency Overall Lending Rate

Monthly average, % — July 2025 to July 2026

Lending–Deposit Spread: Shilling vs. Foreign Currency

Overall lending rate minus overall deposit rate, percentage points, Jul-2025 vs Jul-2026

TICGL reading

The persistent gap between shilling and dollar lending costs is a major reason many Tanzanian corporates with foreign currency revenue seek dollar-denominated facilities where possible — but that choice trades a lower interest rate for exposure to shilling depreciation risk, which TICGL's companion briefing shows has been mild but not negligible over the past year.

06 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: The Month in One Picture

Headline rates eased, the spread did not

Both the overall lending rate and the negotiated lending rate moved in favourable directions for borrowers on the surface, yet the official spread metric still widened — because deposit rates fell faster at the 12-month tenor specifically.

Tenor matters more than the headline average

A borrower quoted "the overall lending rate" could be paying anywhere from 13.79% (long-term) to 16.24% (medium-term 1-2 years) depending on facility structure — a spread of nearly 2.5 percentage points hidden inside one average.

Negotiating power has a real, measurable price

Prime borrowers and large depositors both access rates roughly 2.5-3 percentage points more favourable than the posted average — a gap worth actively pursuing in any sizeable facility or placement.

Currency choice remains a real lever

The persistent ~6 percentage point gap between shilling and dollar lending costs makes currency denomination one of the single largest cost variables available to borrowers with foreign currency revenue.

07 — ApplicationWho This Matters To

Corporate & SME Borrowers

Compare facility structures across tenor before assuming the "overall lending rate" applies — medium-term 1-2 year loans carry the highest average cost.
Where foreign currency revenue exists, weigh the ~6-point rate saving on dollar loans against shilling depreciation risk.

Savers & Corporate Treasurers

Ordinary savings accounts pay a fraction of what 12-month fixed deposits or negotiated placements offer — idle balances are a real opportunity cost.
Negotiated deposit rates (10.99% in July) are consistently above even the 12-month standard rate for depositors with placement flexibility.

Banks & Credit Committees

The widening spread driven by falling 12-month deposit rates, rather than rising lending rates, points to ample funding liquidity rather than tightening credit conditions.
Track the overall-to-negotiated rate gap as a proxy for competitive pressure on pricing for top-tier clients.

PPP Structurers & Development Finance

Use tenor-specific rates, not the overall average, when modelling shilling debt service costs for long-dated infrastructure financing.
Factor the shilling-dollar rate gap into currency-of-denomination decisions for blended or co-financed structures.

"An 'average lending rate' is a useful headline and a poor financing plan. The same month that saw the overall rate ease to 14.85%, a two-year shilling facility still cost over 16% — the difference between those two numbers is where the real financing decision happens."

— TICGL Directorate of Economic Research and Policy

08 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

Primary source

TICGL Directorate of Economic Research and Policy analysis of the Bank of Tanzania's Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 edition (data through July 2026) — specifically Table 2.3.1 (Lending and Deposit Interest Rates) and Table A4 (Interest Rates Structure, domestic and foreign currency sections).

Primary data: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, covering data through July 2026.
Method: Monthly shilling and foreign currency lending rates by tenor, and deposit rates by term, compiled into thirteen-month trend series (July 2025–July 2026). The lending-deposit spread follows the Bank of Tanzania's definition: short-term (up to 1 year) lending rate minus the 12-month deposit rate.
Known limitations: Rates published by the Bank of Tanzania are bank-average figures and do not capture the full range of pricing an individual borrower or depositor may be offered based on collateral, credit history, or relationship strength. Figures for July 2026 are the most recent available and may be revised in subsequent monthly reviews.
Related TICGL analysis: "Tanzania's Government Securities & Interbank Cash Market: What July 2026 Reveals" — read here.

09 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

What is Tanzania's overall bank lending rate in July 2026?

Tanzania's overall shilling lending rate stood at 14.85% in July 2026, easing from 15.22% in June 2026, according to the Bank of Tanzania. Negotiated rates for prime borrowers rose to 12.04% over the same period.

What interest rate do Tanzanian banks pay on deposits?

The overall shilling time deposit rate was 8.78% in July 2026, up from 8.69% in June. The savings deposit rate, which applies to ordinary savings accounts, was far lower at 2.90%, while the 12-month deposit rate stood at 9.34%.

Why is there a gap between lending and deposit rates in Tanzania?

The spread between short-term lending rates and 12-month deposit rates widened to 6.20 percentage points in July 2026, from 5.66 in June — a 54 basis point increase. This spread reflects banks' operating costs, credit risk pricing, and profit margins, and it typically widens when lending rates rise faster than deposit rates, or when deposit rates fall while lending rates hold firm.

Are US dollar loan interest rates cheaper than shilling loan rates in Tanzania?

Yes. The overall foreign currency (largely US dollar) lending rate was 8.48% in July 2026, compared to 14.85% for shilling lending — a gap of about 6.4 percentage points. Foreign currency deposit rates were also lower, at 4.11% overall versus 8.78% for shilling deposits.

Which loan tenor is most expensive for shilling borrowers in Tanzania?

Medium-term shilling loans of 1-2 years carried the highest rate among standard tenors at 16.24% in July 2026, ahead of short-term loans (up to 1 year) at 15.54%, while long-term loans of 3-5 years were comparatively cheaper at 13.79%.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Riba za Mikopo na Amana Tanzania, Julai 2026 — Riba ya jumla ya mikopo ya shilingi ilishuka kidogo hadi asilimia 14.85 mwezi Julai 2026, kutoka asilimia 15.22 Juni, huku riba ya jumla ya amana za muda ikiongezeka hadi asilimia 8.78 kutoka asilimia 8.69. Hata hivyo, tofauti (spread) baina ya riba ya mkopo na amana iliongezeka hadi pointi asilimia 6.20, kutoka 5.66 mwezi Juni — ongezeko kubwa zaidi la mwezi mmoja katika kipindi hiki.

Matokeo makuu: Mikopo ya muda wa kati (miaka 1-2) ndiyo ghali zaidi kwa asilimia 16.24, ikizidi hata mikopo ya muda mfupi (chini ya mwaka 1) yenye asilimia 15.54. Riba zinazojadiliwa (negotiated) kwa wakopaji wenye nguvu ya majadiliano ni chini kwa takribani pointi 2.5-3 kuliko wastani wa jumla. Akaunti za akiba za kawaida zinalipa asilimia 2.90 tu, wakati amana za muda wa miezi 12 zinalipa zaidi ya mara tatu ya hilo, asilimia 9.34. Mikopo ya dola bado ni nafuu zaidi kuliko ya shilingi — asilimia 8.48 dhidi ya asilimia 14.85 — tofauti ya pointi za asilimia 6.4.

Hitimisho kuu ni kwamba "riba ya jumla" pekee haitoshi kufanya maamuzi ya kifedha — muda wa mkopo (tenor), sarafu, na uwezo wa majadiliano wa mteja vyote vinabadilisha gharama halisi ya fedha kwa kiasi kikubwa.

Riba ya jumla ya mkopo (shilingi): asilimia 14.85 (Julai 2026)
Riba ya jumla ya amana: asilimia 8.78 (Julai 2026)
Tofauti ya riba ya mkopo na amana: pointi asilimia 6.20
Riba ya mkopo wa dola: asilimia 8.48 dhidi ya shilingi asilimia 14.85

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, Agosti 2026. Uchambuzi: TICGL Directorate of Economic Research and Policy.

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Tanzania's government domestic debt stock reached TZS 39.47 trillion at the end of July 2026, a modest TZS 0.15 trillion increase from June, but a much larger TZS 4.12 trillion increase from a year earlier. Behind that single number sits a specific, concentrated set of creditors, and a debt structure that shifted noticeably in just one month.

This briefing unpacks who holds Tanzania's domestic debt, how that composition has evolved, and what drove July 2026's specific movements, using the Bank of Tanzania's own creditor and instrument data, all converted here to Trillions of Tanzanian Shillings.

Commercial banks and pension funds together hold 55.6% of all domestic debt — TZS 11.45 trillion and TZS 10.49 trillion respectively — making them, by a wide margin, the two most important creditors to Tanzania's own government.
Domestic debt has grown 161% in six years, from TZS 15.11 trillion in July 2020 to TZS 39.47 trillion in July 2026, though the pace of annual growth has slowed considerably from its 2022 peak.
Government securities now make up 90.0% of the debt stock, up sharply from 84.7% in June 2026, as fresh bond issuance replaced short-term overdraft financing.
Non-securitized debt (mainly government overdraft) fell to TZS 3.94 trillion, from TZS 6.01 trillion in June — a TZS 2.07 trillion one-month swing.
The Bank of Tanzania's own holdings declined to TZS 6.82 trillion (17.3% share) from TZS 7.20 trillion, even as the total debt stock grew — a sign private and institutional creditors absorbed more of July's new issuance.

🔗

Part of TICGL's July 2026 financial markets series

This debt briefing completes a three-part picture of Tanzania's shilling financial markets in July 2026: what government securities auctions and interbank liquidity looked like, what borrowers and savers actually paid and earned, and now, who is actually funding the government itself. Read all three together for the fullest view.

Read: Government Securities & Interbank Cash Market → Read: Lending & Deposit Interest Rates →

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers From July 2026

Pension Funds

TZS 10.49tn

26.6% share, ▲ from 26.4% in June

Bank of Tanzania

TZS 6.82tn

17.3% share, ▼ from TZS 7.20tn

Insurance Companies

TZS 2.06tn

5.2% share

Others (Cos., Individuals, Non-residents)

TZS 7.79tn

19.7% share, ▲ from 19.2%

Government Bonds

TZS 33.62tn

85.2% of debt stock

Treasury Bills

TZS 1.78tn

4.5% of debt stock

Overdraft (Non-securitized)

TZS 3.94tn

▼ sharply from TZS 6.01tn

One-Month Increase (Jun→Jul)

TZS 0.15tn

+0.4% month-on-month

Government Domestic Debt Stock, 2020-2026

Trillions of TZS, end of July each year (plus June 2026)

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 2.6.1 — Government Domestic Debt Stock, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026.

03 — MethodologyReading the Bank of Tanzania's Domestic Debt Data

The Bank of Tanzania publishes government domestic debt stock both by creditor category (who holds it) and by borrowing instrument (what form it takes), alongside a six-year annual trend and monthly detail on new issuance for financing purposes. This briefing draws on Chart 2.6.1 (Government Domestic Debt Stock), Chart 2.6.2 (Issued Government Securities for Financing Purposes), Table 2.6.5 (Government Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instruments), and Table 2.6.6 (Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category).

Why Trillions of TZS

The Bank of Tanzania's underlying tables report these figures in Billions of TZS. At close to TZS 40,000 billion, the debt stock is easier to read and compare in Trillions of TZS (dividing every figure by 1,000), which is the unit used consistently throughout this briefing.

A note on scope

This briefing covers government domestic debt only — money the government owes to lenders inside Tanzania, excluding liquidity papers used purely for monetary policy operations. It does not cover Tanzania's external (foreign-currency) debt, which TICGL's companion Government Securities briefing touches on separately.

1. The Long Climb: Domestic Debt Since 2020

Growing, but decelerating

Theme I of V

Tanzania's government domestic debt has more than doubled since July 2020, rising from TZS 15.11 trillion to TZS 39.47 trillion by July 2026 — a 161% increase over six years. But the pace of that growth has slowed considerably from its post-pandemic peak.

Table 1: Government domestic debt stock and annual growth, 2020-2026
Period	Debt stock (TZS tn)	Annual growth
July 2020	15.11	—
July 2021	17.82	+17.9%
July 2022	23.68	+32.9%
July 2023	28.51	+20.4%
July 2024	32.47	+13.9%
July 2025	35.35	+8.9%
June 2026	39.33	—
July 2026	39.47	+11.7%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Chart 2.6.1. Annual growth for July 2026 measured against July 2025.

TICGL reading

Growth peaked at nearly 33% in the year to July 2022 — likely reflecting post-pandemic fiscal financing needs — and has since eased toward a steadier high-single-digit to low-double-digit annual pace. A return to roughly 12% growth in the year to July 2026, after 8.9% the year before, is worth watching for whether it marks a new trend or a single-month blip.

2. Who Holds Tanzania's Domestic Debt?

Concentrated among two creditor types

Theme II of V

Six creditor categories share Tanzania's domestic debt, but the distribution is far from even. Commercial banks and pension funds alone account for 55.6% of the total — more than double the combined share of the Bank of Tanzania, insurance companies, and BOT's special funds.

Domestic Debt by Creditor, July 2026

Trillions of TZS, share of total

Creditor Holdings, Three Snapshots

Trillions of TZS — Jul-2025, Jun-2026, Jul-2026

Creditor category	Jul-25 (TZS tn)	Jun-26 (TZS tn)	Jul-26 (TZS tn)	Jul-26 share
Commercial banks	10.18	11.32	11.45	29.0%
Pension funds	9.33	10.40	10.49	26.6%
Bank of Tanzania	6.80	7.20	6.82	17.3%
Others (private companies, individuals, non-residents)	6.46	7.55	7.79	19.7%
Insurance	1.81	2.02	2.06	5.2%
BOT's special funds	0.78	0.84	0.85	2.2%
Total (excl. liquidity papers)	35.35	39.33	39.47	100%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.6.6 — Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category. Figures converted to Trillions of TZS from the Bank's billions-of-TZS source table.

TICGL reading

Every creditor category grew its holdings in absolute terms between July 2025 and July 2026, but the Bank of Tanzania's own share fell in July specifically — from TZS 7.20 trillion to TZS 6.82 trillion — while "Others" (private companies, individuals and non-residents) kept climbing. That shift suggests fresh July issuance was placed more with the broader market than with the central bank itself.

3. The Two Anchors: Commercial Banks & Pension Funds

Steadily growing, steadily dominant

Theme III of V

Commercial banks and pension funds are not just Tanzania's largest domestic creditors today — they have held that position consistently across every snapshot the Bank of Tanzania has published. Combined, their share of total domestic debt has stayed remarkably stable, at 55.2% in July 2025 and 55.6% in July 2026.

Commercial Banks vs. Pension Funds Holdings

Trillions of TZS — Jul-2025, Jun-2026, Jul-2026

TICGL reading

For pension funds, this is a natural fit: long-dated government bonds match the long-dated liabilities pension schemes carry. For commercial banks, sustained appetite for government debt at this scale is also a signal worth watching for private-sector credit: a bank's balance sheet capacity used for government securities is capacity not extended as loans to businesses.

4. Domestic Debt by Instrument: A Sharp Shift to Securities

Securities crowding out overdraft

Theme IV of V

Beyond who holds Tanzania's domestic debt, its form matters too. Government securities — Treasury bills, Treasury bonds, government stocks and tax certificates — made up 90.0% of the debt stock in July 2026, up sharply from 84.7% in June, as non-securitized debt (mainly government overdraft) fell from TZS 6.01 trillion to TZS 3.94 trillion in a single month.

Debt by Instrument, Three Snapshots

Trillions of TZS — securities vs. non-securitized debt

Instrument Detail: Jul-25 vs. Jul-26

Trillions of TZS — Treasury bills, bonds and overdraft

Instrument	Jul-25 (TZS tn)	Jun-26 (TZS tn)	Jul-26 (TZS tn)	Jul-26 share
Government securities (total)	30.34	33.31	35.53	90.0%
of which: Government bonds	28.19	31.42	33.62	85.2%
of which: Treasury bills	2.02	1.76	1.78	4.5%
of which: Government stocks	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.3%
Non-securitized debt (overdraft)	5.01	6.01	3.94	10.0%
Total (excl. liquidity papers)	35.35	39.33	39.47	100%

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2.6.5 — Government Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instruments.

TICGL reading

A shift from overdraft toward tradable securities is generally a healthier financing pattern: securities are transparently priced at auction and held by a diversified investor base, while overdraft financing is a more opaque, shorter-term source of funding. July's sharp move in that direction is worth confirming over the next few months rather than treating as an established trend.

5. Monthly Financing Activity: How the Debt Actually Grows

Bond-heavy financing in July

Theme V of V

In July 2026, the government mobilised TZS 0.68 trillion from the domestic market through new securities — TZS 0.18 trillion in Treasury bills and TZS 0.50 trillion in Treasury bonds — while making TZS 0.57 trillion in debt service payments, comprising TZS 0.21 trillion in principal repayments and TZS 0.36 trillion in interest.

Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Bonds Issued for Financing

Trillions of TZS, monthly — July 2025 to July 2026

July 2026 Debt Service: Principal vs. Interest

Trillions of TZS

TICGL reading

Interest payments (TZS 0.36 trillion) outweighed principal repayments (TZS 0.21 trillion) within July's debt service — a reminder that as the debt stock has grown, so has the recurring cost of simply servicing it, a cost that competes directly with development spending in the government's budget.

06 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: The Month in One Picture

Growth continues, but the pace bears watching

A 161% increase in domestic debt since 2020, and 11.7% growth in the year to July 2026, is a meaningful pace after several years of deceleration — worth confirming isn't a renewed acceleration.

Concentration risk sits with two creditor types

Commercial banks and pension funds together hold 55.6% of domestic debt. Their continued appetite is central to how easily the government can keep financing itself domestically.

The debt mix improved, in one month

The sharp shift from overdraft to securities in July is a positive structural signal, but a single month is not yet a trend — the next few Monthly Economic Reviews will show whether it holds.

Debt service is now a real budget line

TZS 0.57 trillion in a single month's domestic debt service, with interest exceeding principal, underscores why sustainable debt management matters as much as financing volume.

07 — ApplicationWho This Matters To

Pension Funds & Institutional Investors

Monitor the government securities share of debt (now 90.0%) as a proxy for continued supply of the long-dated bonds pension liabilities are typically matched against.
Track whether commercial banks' appetite for government debt shifts meaningfully, as it can signal changes in relative pricing between government securities and private credit.

Commercial Banks & Treasury Desks

Weigh continued government securities holdings against private-sector lending opportunities, given how large a share of bank balance sheets government debt already represents.
Watch the overdraft-to-securities shift for signals about near-term Treasury bill and bond supply.

Fiscal & Development Policy Analysts

Track the growing debt service burden (principal plus interest) as a share of monthly government expenditure alongside debt stock growth.
Use the six-year growth trend to assess whether Tanzania's domestic debt trajectory remains consistent with medium-term debt sustainability targets.

PPP Structurers & Development Partners

Factor the government's demonstrated domestic financing capacity and creditor concentration into assessments of counterparty fiscal capacity for co-financed projects.
Consider how a growing debt service bill may affect the government's capacity for new development expenditure commitments.

"Tanzania's domestic debt is not owed to some abstract market — it is owed overwhelmingly to the country's own banks and pension funds. That concentration is a strength when appetite holds, and a vulnerability the moment it doesn't. July's sharp pivot toward securities and away from overdraft is the kind of structural shift worth watching closely over the months ahead, not filing away as a one-off."

— TICGL Directorate of Economic Research and Policy

08 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

Primary source

TICGL Directorate of Economic Research and Policy analysis of the Bank of Tanzania's Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 edition (data through July 2026) — specifically Chart 2.6.1 (Government Domestic Debt Stock), Chart 2.6.2 (Issued Government Securities for Financing Purposes), Table 2.6.5 (Government Domestic Debt by Borrowing Instruments), and Table 2.6.6 (Government Domestic Debt by Creditor Category).

Primary data: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026, covering data through July 2026.
Unit conversion: All figures were converted from the Bank of Tanzania's original Billions-of-TZS presentation to Trillions of TZS (divided by 1,000) for readability, at the user's request. No other adjustment was made to the underlying figures.
Method: Annual domestic debt stock (Chart 2.6.1), creditor category and instrument breakdowns (Tables 2.6.6 and 2.6.5) for July 2025, June 2026 and July 2026, and monthly Treasury bill/bond issuance (Chart 2.6.2) for the thirteen months July 2025 to July 2026.
Known limitations: Creditor-category and instrument breakdowns are only published for the three most recent periods in each Monthly Economic Review, so a full monthly time series by creditor is not available from this source. Figures for July 2026 are provisional and subject to revision in subsequent monthly reviews.
Related TICGL analysis: "Tanzania's Government Securities & Interbank Cash Market: What July 2026 Reveals" — read here; "Tanzania's Lending & Deposit Interest Rates: What July 2026 Reveals" — read here.

09 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

How big is Tanzania's government domestic debt in 2026?

Tanzania's government domestic debt stock stood at TZS 39.47 trillion at the end of July 2026, up from TZS 39.33 trillion in June 2026 and TZS 35.35 trillion a year earlier in July 2025, according to the Bank of Tanzania.

Who are the largest holders of Tanzania's government domestic debt?

As of July 2026, commercial banks held the largest share at 29.0% (TZS 11.45 trillion), followed by pension funds at 26.6% (TZS 10.49 trillion), the Bank of Tanzania at 17.3% (TZS 6.82 trillion), and other holders including private companies, individuals and non-residents at 19.7% (TZS 7.79 trillion).

How fast has Tanzania's domestic debt grown?

Tanzania's government domestic debt stock has grown from TZS 15.11 trillion in July 2020 to TZS 39.47 trillion in July 2026 — an increase of about 161% over six years, though the pace of annual growth has slowed from over 30% in 2022 to roughly 12% in the year to July 2026.

What share of Tanzania's domestic debt is government securities versus overdraft?

Government securities (Treasury bills, Treasury bonds, government stocks and tax certificates) made up 90.0% of domestic debt stock in July 2026, up sharply from 84.7% in June, while non-securitized debt (mainly government overdraft) fell to 10.0% from 15.3%.

Why did the overdraft share of Tanzania's domestic debt fall sharply in July 2026?

The government issued TZS 0.68 trillion in new Treasury bills and bonds during July 2026, which — alongside routine debt service payments — reduced the government's non-securitized overdraft balance from TZS 6.01 trillion in June to TZS 3.94 trillion in July, shifting the debt mix further toward tradable securities.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Deni la Ndani la Serikali ya Tanzania kwa Kigezo cha Wadai, Julai 2026 — Deni la ndani la Serikali lilifikia TZS trilioni 39.47 mwishoni mwa Julai 2026, likiongezeka kidogo kutoka TZS trilioni 39.33 Juni 2026, na kutoka TZS trilioni 35.35 mwaka mmoja uliopita. Kwa jumla, deni hili limeongezeka kwa asilimia 161 tangu Julai 2020, likitoka TZS trilioni 15.11.

Matokeo makuu: Benki za biashara na mifuko ya pensheni kwa pamoja zinamiliki asilimia 55.6 ya deni lote la ndani — TZS trilioni 11.45 na TZS trilioni 10.49 mtawalia. Hatifungani za Serikali (Treasury bonds na bills) sasa zinachangia asilimia 90.0 ya deni lote, ongezeko kubwa kutoka asilimia 84.7 mwezi Juni, huku deni lisilo na hati (overdraft) likishuka kwa kasi kutoka TZS trilioni 6.01 hadi TZS trilioni 3.94 ndani ya mwezi mmoja. Benki Kuu ya Tanzania yenyewe ilipunguza umiliki wake wa deni hilo hadi TZS trilioni 6.82 kutoka TZS trilioni 7.20.

Hitimisho kuu ni kwamba deni la ndani la Serikali linaendelea kukua, lakini muundo wake umeboreka kuelekea hatifungani zenye uwazi zaidi wa bei badala ya mikopo ya muda mfupi (overdraft) — mabadiliko yanayohitaji kufuatiliwa kwa miezi ijayo ili kuthibitisha kama ni mwelekeo wa kudumu.

Deni la ndani la Serikali: TZS trilioni 39.47 (Julai 2026)
Wadai wakubwa: Benki za biashara (29.0%) na mifuko ya pensheni (26.6%)
Hatifungani za Serikali: asilimia 90.0 ya deni lote
Ukuaji tangu 2020: asilimia 161 (TZS trilioni 15.11 hadi 39.47)

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, Agosti 2026. Uchambuzi: TICGL Directorate of Economic Research and Policy.

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Read on their own, the shilling and the national debt tell two separate stories. The shilling averaged TZS 2,653.52 per US dollar in July 2026 — up 0.5% on an annual basis, a genuine reversal from a 0.11% depreciation the year before. The national debt stock, meanwhile, reached USD 50,782.1 million, up from USD 47,598.6 million twelve months earlier, with external debt alone growing from USD 33,712.4 million to USD 35,885.6 million over the same period. Neither trend, by itself, is alarming. But they are not independent stories — they are connected by a single shared resource: Tanzania's gross official foreign exchange reserves, which the Bank of Tanzania draws on both to smooth exchange-rate volatility and to service external debt. This analysis traces that connection through five findings.

The shilling has genuinely stabilised, not just held flat — annual appreciation of 0.5% against a backdrop of routine, not defensive, central bank intervention in the interbank foreign exchange market.
National debt keeps growing steadily: total debt is up 6.7% year-on-year to USD 50,782.1 million, with external debt (70.7% of the total) doing most of the growing.
External debt is heavily dollar-denominated — 65.3% of disbursed outstanding debt is in USD — which ties the local-currency cost of servicing it directly to shilling performance against that one currency.
Reserves are the hinge between the two trends. At USD 6,199.6 million (4.8 months of import cover), reserves currently comfortably cover both roles — but every dollar spent servicing debt (USD 122.0 million in July alone) is a dollar not available to smooth the exchange rate, and vice versa.
The current account deficit is the trend to watch. It widened 21.3% in the year to July 2026, meaning the reserve buffer is being asked to do more even before debt-service obligations are added in.

📌

Read this alongside TICGL's tax and structural-gaps research

How Tanzania finances its debt-service obligations and defends reserve adequacy connects directly to the domestic revenue base TICGL/TERI has examined elsewhere — including "Is Tanzania's Reliance on VAT Fueling Growth or Holding It Back?" and the flagship Dira 2050 policy-gaps analysis on the country's financing deficit through FYDP IV.

Read: What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050 →

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers

Exchange Rate, End Jul-26

TZS 2,649.7

Per USD, end of period

Exchange Rate, End Jul-25

TZS 2,545.8

Per USD, one year earlier

External Debt Stock

$35,885.6m

83.7% public, 16.3% private

Domestic Debt Stock

TZS 39,472.2bn

Up from TZS 39,325.8bn in Jun-26

USD Share of External Debt

65.3%

Followed by Euro (18.2%), Yuan (6.6%)

Multilateral Share of External Debt

59.2%

Largest single creditor category

IFEM Turnover, Jul-26

$227.1m

Up from $193.3m in Jun-26

Current Account Deficit

-$2,395.3m

Widened 21.3%, year ending Jul-26

Shilling Exchange Rate vs. Total National Debt, Jul-25 to Jul-26

TZS per USD (end of period, left axis) against total national debt in USD millions (right axis)

Source: Bank of Tanzania.

1. Shilling Performance: Stable, Not Static

+0.5% year-on-year appreciation

Theme I of VI

The shilling depreciated mildly by 0.8% month-on-month, averaging TZS 2,653.52 per USD in July 2026, compared with TZS 2,633.73 in June. But the more telling number is the annual comparison: the shilling appreciated 0.5% over the twelve months to July 2026, reversing a 0.11% depreciation over the same period a year earlier. The end-of-period rate has drifted from TZS 2,545.8 in July 2025 to TZS 2,649.7 in July 2026 — a gradual, orderly move rather than a sharp devaluation.

The interbank foreign exchange market remained broadly stable, supported by foreign currency liquidity from gold and traditional crop exports and from tourism. Turnover rose to USD 227.1 million in July, from USD 193.3 million in June. In line with its standard intervention policy, the Bank of Tanzania net-sold USD 110.3 million into the market — smoothing volatility, not defending a fixed peg.

Table 1: Shilling exchange rate and interbank FX market activity
Indicator	Jul-25	Jun-26	Jul-26
Exchange rate, monthly average (TZS/USD)	—	2,633.73	2,653.52
Exchange rate, end of period (TZS/USD)	2,545.8	2,623.5	2,649.7
IFEM turnover (USD million)	—	193.3	227.1
BOT net sale(+)/purchase(-) (USD million)	—	—	110.3
Annual % change (appreciation +/depreciation -)	-0.11	—	+0.5

Source: Bank of Tanzania.

2. National Debt Stock: Steady Growth, External-Led

+6.7% year-on-year

Theme II of VI

Tanzania's total national debt stock stood at USD 50,782.1 million at the end of July 2026 — a slight 0.07% month-on-month decrease, but up 6.7% from USD 47,598.6 million a year earlier. External debt did essentially all of that growing: it rose from USD 33,712.4 million to USD 35,885.6 million over the same twelve months (+6.4%), while domestic debt actually grew faster in percentage terms — from TZS 35,351.4 billion to TZS 39,472.2 billion (+11.7%) — but from a smaller base, so external debt still accounts for 70.7% of the total.

External vs. Domestic Debt Stock, Jul-25 to Jul-26

External debt in USD millions; domestic debt converted at each period's exchange rate for comparability

Table 2: National debt stock summary
Item	Jul-25	Jul-26	% change
External debt stock (USD million)	33,712.4	35,885.6	6.4
Domestic debt stock (TZS billion)	35,351.4	39,472.2	11.7
Total national debt stock (USD million)	47,598.6	50,782.1	6.7
External debt share of total	70.8%	70.7%	≈ flat

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania.

3. Creditor and Currency Mix: Why the Dollar Matters Most

65.3% of external debt is USD-denominated

Theme III of VI

Multilateral institutions remain Tanzania's largest external creditor group, at 59.2% of the external debt stock (USD 21,256.8 million), followed by commercial lenders at 34.6% (USD 12,427.3 million), bilateral creditors at 4.3%, and export credit agencies at 1.8%. This creditor mix has been broadly stable over the past year — the growth in external debt has come from drawing down more from existing facilities rather than a shift toward a riskier creditor base.

The currency composition is what ties external debt most directly to the exchange rate question: 65.3% of disbursed outstanding external debt is denominated in US dollars, 18.2% in Euros, and 6.6% in Chinese Yuan. Because debt service is paid predominantly in the currency of denomination, a period of shilling weakness specifically against the dollar — even with reserves otherwise stable — would raise the local-currency cost of servicing roughly two-thirds of Tanzania's external debt.

External Debt by Creditor Category, Jul-25 vs. Jul-26

USD millions

Currency Composition of External Debt, Jul-26

% of disbursed outstanding debt

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania.

4. The Reserves Link: Where Shilling Stability and Debt Service Meet

4.8 months of import cover

Theme IV of VI — Central Argument

Gross official foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 6,199.6 million at the end of July 2026 — broadly unchanged from the corresponding period in 2025, and equivalent to 4.8 months of projected imports of goods and services, comfortably above the widely used three-month adequacy benchmark. These reserves are the single resource the Bank of Tanzania draws on for two distinct purposes: smoothing shilling volatility in the interbank foreign exchange market (as in July's USD 110.3 million net sale), and meeting the country's external debt-service schedule (USD 122.0 million in July alone, of which USD 100.7 million was principal).

Both draws are currently manageable relative to the reserve stock and its 4.8-month import cover. But they are not independent: a reserve pool spent smoothing the exchange rate is not available for debt service, and vice versa. The relationship becomes more binding, not less, as either the current account deficit or the external debt-service schedule grows — which is exactly what has been happening over the past year.

Gross Official Reserves & Months of Import Cover, 2018–2026

USD millions (bars) and months of projected imports (line)

Source: Bank of Tanzania.

5. Current Account Pressure: The Deficit Feeding the Reserve Draw

Deficit widened 21.3% year-on-year

Theme V of VI

The current account deficit widened by 21.3% to USD 2,395.3 million in the year ending July 2026, from USD 1,975.4 million a year earlier — reversing a run of narrowing deficits and CAB/GDP ratios that had improved from -7.1% in 2022 to -2.2% in 2025. The widening was driven by a USD 3,018.0 million increase in goods imports (capital goods, industrial supplies, and refined petroleum products), which outweighed a still-solid USD 2,828.3 million increase in exports of goods and services, led by gold.

This matters for the shilling-debt relationship directly: a wider current account deficit is itself a claim on foreign currency, financed partly through reserves and partly through the capital and financial account (including the external borrowing that feeds the debt stock discussed above). A deficit that keeps widening faster than it did over 2022–2025 works against the reserve buffer from a second direction, alongside debt service.

Current Account Balance as % of GDP, 2021–2025

The deficit had been narrowing for three straight years before this update

Source: Bank of Tanzania and Tanzania Revenue Authority.

6. Debt Service Burden: A Recurring Monthly Draw

$122.0 million in July alone

Theme VI of VI

Actual external debt service ran between USD 122.0 million and USD 473.5 million per month over the past year, averaging roughly USD 231 million a month — a recurring, not occasional, draw on the same reserves that back shilling stability. In July 2026 specifically, principal repayments (USD 100.7 million) made up the bulk of the USD 122.0 million total, with interest payments of USD 21.4 million. External loan disbursements of USD 42.3 million during the month, mainly to the central government, partly offset this outflow, but net transfers on external debt were negative in July.

External Debt Service: Principal vs. Interest, Jul-25 to Jul-26

USD millions per month

Source: Ministry of Finance and Bank of Tanzania.

03 — SynthesisShilling Stability vs. National Debt: The Combined Picture

Today: comfortably compatible

Reserve cover of 4.8 months, routine (not defensive) FX intervention, and annual shilling appreciation all point to a currency and a reserve position that currently absorb both the debt-service bill and normal exchange-rate smoothing without strain.

The trend: two claims growing together

Total national debt is up 6.7% year-on-year and the current account deficit is up 21.3% — both trends increase the calls on the same reserve pool, even though reserves themselves have held broadly steady rather than growing to match.

The concentration risk: the dollar specifically

With 65.3% of external debt denominated in USD, shilling performance against the dollar in particular — not the currency's stability in general — is what determines the local-currency cost of servicing most of Tanzania's external debt.

The buffer: export growth, especially gold

Gold export earnings (up 37.4% year-on-year) are currently doing more than any other single factor to keep reserves fed faster than debt service and the current account deficit are drawing them down.

04 — RecommendationsWhat to Monitor Going Forward

Priority 1 — Watch the Reserve-Adequacy Trend, Not Just the Level

Track months of import cover quarter-to-quarter, not just against the three-month benchmark, since 4.8 months today says less about the trajectory than the direction of change.
Fold both the current account deficit trend and the external debt-service schedule into the same reserve-adequacy forecast, since both draw on the identical resource.

Priority 2 — Track USD-Specific Exposure Separately From General FX Stability

Monitor the shilling's performance against the US dollar specifically, given 65.3% of external debt sits in that currency — general FX-basket stability can mask dollar-specific pressure.
Consider the currency-composition trend of new external borrowing, not just the stock, as a lever for managing this exposure over time.

Priority 3 — Sustain the Export Growth Currently Carrying Reserves

Treat continued gold and non-traditional export growth as directly protective of shilling stability, not just of the trade balance in isolation.
Continue strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation (tax revenue ran 12.5% above target in June 2026) as a lower-risk complement to external financing.

"The shilling isn't stable because debt is small — it's stable because reserves are, for now, comfortably ahead of both claims on them. That is a fact about this month's balance, not a permanent feature. The number worth watching every month from here isn't the exchange rate on its own, or the debt stock on its own — it's whether reserves keep growing faster than the current account deficit and the debt-service bill combined."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

05 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

Primary source

Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 edition (data through July 2026), including its statistical tables on money and credit (Table A3), interest rates (Table A4), the balance of payments (Table A5), and national debt developments (Table A10). All figures in this analysis are drawn directly from that publication.

Primary data: Bank of Tanzania — Monthly Economic Review, August 2026; Ministry of Finance; Tanzania Revenue Authority.
Method: Domestic debt in TZS was converted to USD equivalent at each period's end-of-period exchange rate for the debt-composition chart, for like-for-like comparison with external debt and total national debt (which BOT already reports in USD).
Known limitations: The current account balance-to-GDP series (2021–2025) is calendar-year data, while the current account deficit figures cited elsewhere on this page use the Bank's "year ending July" rolling-window convention (2024, 2025, 2026p) — the two series are not directly comparable point-for-point, though both show the same broad pattern of a deficit that had been narrowing before this reporting period. 2026 figures throughout are provisional (p) or revised (r).
Related TICGL analysis: TICGL/TERI, "Is Tanzania's Reliance on VAT Fueling Growth or Holding It Back?" — read the Dira 2050 policy-gaps analysis.

06 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

Is the Tanzanian shilling stable in 2026?

Yes, on the evidence to July 2026. The shilling averaged TZS 2,653.52 per USD in July, up 0.5% on an annual basis — a reversal from a 0.11% depreciation a year earlier — even though it slipped 0.8% month-on-month. The Bank of Tanzania's interventions were routine liquidity smoothing (net sales of USD 110.3 million in July), not emergency defence.

How large is Tanzania's national debt and how is it split?

Tanzania's total national debt stock was USD 50,782.1 million at the end of July 2026. External debt made up 70.7% (USD 35,885.6 million) and domestic debt the remaining 29.3% (TZS 39,472.2 billion, roughly USD 14,896.6 million at the July exchange rate).

What connects shilling stability to national debt?

Foreign exchange reserves. The Bank of Tanzania uses reserves both to smooth exchange-rate volatility in the interbank market and to service external debt (USD 122.0 million in July 2026 alone). Both draws come from the same USD 6,199.6 million reserve pool, so a widening current account deficit or a rising debt-service bill increases the pressure on the reserves that currently keep the shilling stable.

Are Tanzania's foreign exchange reserves adequate?

Gross official reserves stood at USD 6,199.6 million at the end of July 2026, equivalent to 4.8 months of projected imports of goods and services — above the commonly used three-month adequacy benchmark and broadly unchanged from a year earlier.

Is 65% of Tanzania's external debt in US dollars a risk to the shilling?

The US dollar accounted for 65.3% of Tanzania's disbursed outstanding external debt at the end of July 2026, followed by the Euro (18.2%) and Chinese Yuan (6.6%). Because debt service is paid predominantly in USD, a period of shilling weakness against the dollar specifically would raise the local-currency cost of servicing this debt, even if reserves and the exchange rate both look stable today.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Uthabiti wa Shilingi ya Tanzania dhidi ya Deni la Taifa — Uchambuzi wa Agosti 2026. — Ripoti hii ya TICGL/TERI inachambua uhusiano kati ya uthabiti wa thamani ya shilingi ya Tanzania na ukuaji wa deni la taifa, ikitumia Taarifa ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT) ya Agosti 2026. Kiungo kikuu kati ya mambo haya mawili ni akiba ya fedha za kigeni, ambayo Benki Kuu hutumia kwa ajili ya kudhibiti mabadiliko ya thamani ya shilingi na pia kulipa deni la nje.

Matokeo makuu: Shilingi iliongezeka thamani kwa asilimia 0.5 kwa mwaka hadi kufikia wastani wa TZS 2,653.5 kwa dola mwezi Julai 2026, ikisaidiwa na mauzo ya dhahabu, mazao ya jadi, na utalii. Wakati huo huo, deni la taifa la Tanzania liliongezeka kwa asilimia 6.7 kwa mwaka hadi kufikia dola milioni 50,782.1, ambapo asilimia 70.7 ni deni la nje. Asilimia 65.3 ya deni la nje liko kwenye dola za Kimarekani, hivyo kufanya utendaji wa shilingi dhidi ya dola kuwa muhimu zaidi kuliko uthabiti wa jumla wa fedha za kigeni. Akiba ya fedha za kigeni ilifikia dola milioni 6,199.6 (miezi 4.8 ya uagizaji bidhaa nje), ikitumika kwa pamoja kudhibiti soko la fedha za kigeni (mauzo halisi ya dola milioni 110.3 mwezi Julai) na kulipa deni la nje (dola milioni 122.0 mwezi huo huo).

Uchambuzi wa TICGL unaonesha kuwa leo hii akiba ya fedha za kigeni inatosha kukidhi mahitaji yote mawili — uthabiti wa shilingi na malipo ya deni. Hata hivyo, nakisi ya urari wa mahesabu ya nje iliongezeka kwa asilimia 21.3 kwa mwaka, na deni la taifa linaendelea kukua, hali inayoongeza mzigo kwenye rasilimali ile ile ya akiba ya fedha za kigeni. Ukuaji endelevu wa mauzo nje — hususan dhahabu — na uimarishaji wa makusanyo ya mapato ya ndani ni mambo muhimu ya kulinda uthabiti wa shilingi kwa siku zijazo.

Wastani wa Kubadilisha Shilingi (Julai 2026): TZS 2,653.5 kwa dola — imeongezeka thamani kwa asilimia 0.5 kwa mwaka
Deni la Taifa: dola milioni 50,782.1 — limeongezeka kwa asilimia 6.7 kwa mwaka
Deni la Nje kwa Sarafu: asilimia 65.3 ni dola za Kimarekani
Akiba ya Fedha za Kigeni: dola milioni 6,199.6 — sawa na miezi 4.8 ya uagizaji
Malipo ya Deni la Nje (Julai 2026): dola milioni 122.0, kutoka rasilimali ile ile ya akiba

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT), Taarifa ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi, Agosti 2026; uchambuzi wa TICGL/TERI, Septemba 2026.

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

The simplest story about inflation in a small open economy is exchange-rate pass-through: a weaker currency raises the cost of imports, which raises the prices households pay. Tanzania's July 2026 data does not tell that story. The shilling appreciated 0.5% against the US dollar over the twelve months to July 2026 — a genuine reversal from a 0.11% depreciation the year before — while headline inflation rose from 3.3% to 4.2% and core inflation nearly doubled, from 1.9% to 3.9%. If currency weakness were the driver, this should not be possible. Five findings explain what is actually happening instead.

The shilling and headline inflation moved in the same direction, not opposite ones — both a stable-to-stronger currency and rising prices occurred at once, which rules out simple FX pass-through as the primary channel.
Transport costs are the single largest driver: transport inflation jumped from 1.2% to 13.8% over the year, reflecting domestic fuel pricing dynamics more than the exchange rate.
Global oil prices and domestic fuel inflation moved in opposite directions in July: crude oil fell 2.3% month-on-month in dollar terms, while Tanzania's energy, fuel and utilities inflation rose from 6.3% to 6.9% — a sign that domestic pricing and taxation, not the world price or the shilling, set the pace.
Goods inflation — the category most exposed to import prices — actually eased, from 4.7% to 3.3% over the year, consistent with a currency that held its value rather than one that weakened.
Services inflation is the real story behind the headline rise: it climbed from 0.8% to 5.7% over the same period, a domestically driven trend with little direct link to the exchange rate.

📌

Read this alongside TICGL's shilling-vs-debt and VAT analyses

This piece is a direct companion to TICGL/TERI's "Tanzania Shilling Stability vs. National Debt" analysis — together they cover both sides of what the shilling's stability is, and is not, doing to Tanzania's macro-financial picture. Both connect to TICGL/TERI's tax-structure research, including "Is Tanzania's Reliance on VAT Fueling Growth or Holding It Back?".

Read: Tanzania Shilling Stability vs. National Debt →

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers

Headline Inflation, Jul-26

4.2%

Fourth straight monthly rise

Transport Inflation, Jul-26

13.8%

From 1.2% a year earlier

Food Inflation, Jul-26

4.1%

Down from 7.6% a year earlier

Services Inflation, Jul-26

5.7%

Up from 0.8% a year earlier

Shilling, Jul-26 (annual)

+0.5%

Appreciated against the USD

Global Crude Oil, Jul-26

-2.3% m/m

USD 79.80/barrel, from 81.70

Energy & Fuel Inflation, Jul-26

6.9%

Rose even as global oil fell

Goods Inflation, Jul-26

3.3%

Eased from 4.7% a year earlier

Shilling Exchange Rate vs. Headline Inflation, Jul-25 to Jul-26

TZS per USD (end of period, left axis) against annual headline inflation (%, right axis)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania.

1. Inflation Trend: Rising, and Increasingly a Core Story

Core inflation nearly doubled

Theme I of IV

Annual headline inflation rose to 4.2% in July 2026, from 4.0% in June and 3.3% a year earlier — its fourth consecutive monthly increase. Core inflation (which strips out unprocessed food and energy) rose to 3.9%, from 1.9% a year earlier, and is now the largest single contributor to the headline rate, at 2.9 percentage points of the 4.2% total — up from 1.4 points a year earlier. Food inflation, by contrast, has fallen sharply, from 7.6% to 4.1%, on a strong harvest and ample National Food Reserve Agency stocks.

Headline, Core, Food & Energy Inflation, Jul-25 to Jul-26

Annual % change

Contribution to Overall Inflation, Jul-25 to Jul-26

Percentage points of the headline rate, by component

Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania computations.

2. Shilling Trend: Stable, Even Slightly Stronger

+0.5% year-on-year

Theme II of IV

Over the same period that inflation rose, the shilling did not weaken. It averaged TZS 2,653.52 per USD in July 2026, up 0.5% on an annual basis — a reversal from a 0.11% depreciation the year before — supported by foreign currency inflows from gold, traditional crop exports, and tourism. The end-of-period rate moved gradually from TZS 2,545.8 in July 2025 to TZS 2,649.7 in July 2026. The Bank of Tanzania's interbank foreign exchange market interventions (a USD 110.3 million net sale in July) were routine liquidity smoothing, not signs of currency stress.

Why this matters for the inflation question

A currency that is stable-to-appreciating removes the most common explanation for rising prices in an import-dependent economy. That makes it necessary to look at what else moved — starting with global commodity prices and the structure of inflation by category.

3. The Exchange-Rate Pass-Through Test: Oil Prices Fell, Fuel Inflation Rose

Global price and domestic inflation diverged

Theme III of IV — Central Argument

If the exchange rate were the main channel pushing up fuel-related inflation, the direction of global oil prices and domestic energy inflation should broadly track each other — a stable shilling should let a falling global oil price show up as falling or flat domestic fuel inflation. Instead they diverged sharply in July 2026: the average global crude oil price fell 2.3% month-on-month, to USD 79.80 a barrel, from USD 81.70 in June, following a partial de-escalation of Middle East tensions. Over the same month, Tanzania's domestic energy, fuel and utilities inflation rose, from 6.3% to 6.9%, and transport inflation rose from 13.6% to 13.8%.

The Bank of Tanzania's own reading points to the same conclusion: the recent easing in fuel prices has not yet been fully transmitted across all petroleum products domestically — a lag in local pricing formulas and pass-through mechanics, not a currency effect, given the shilling itself was broadly stable across the same window.

Global Crude Oil Price vs. Domestic Energy & Fuel Inflation, Jul-25 to Jul-26

USD per barrel (left axis) against annual domestic energy/fuel inflation (%, right axis)

Table 1: Global oil price vs. domestic fuel/transport inflation, selected months
Month	Crude oil (USD/barrel)	Energy & fuel inflation (%)	Transport inflation (%)
Jul-25	69.19	1.0	1.2
Jan-26	63.65	5.2	n/a
Apr-26	103.91	5.3	n/a
Jun-26	81.70	6.3	13.6
Jul-26	79.80	6.9	13.8

Sources: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), August 2026; National Bureau of Statistics; Bank of Tanzania.

4. Goods vs. Services: Where the Real Pressure Sits

Services inflation has overtaken goods inflation

Theme IV of IV

The clearest evidence against an exchange-rate story comes from splitting inflation into goods (the category most exposed to import prices and, by extension, the exchange rate) and services (largely domestically produced and priced). Goods inflation actually eased over the year, from 4.7% in July 2025 to 3.3% in July 2026 — consistent with a currency that held its value. Services inflation did the opposite, surging from 0.8% to 5.7% and overtaking goods inflation for the first time in this series, in April 2026.

Goods vs. Services Inflation, Jul-25 to Jul-26

Annual % change — services inflation crossed above goods inflation in April 2026

TICGL reading

A weakening currency should, if anything, push goods inflation up faster than services inflation, since goods carry more direct import content. Tanzania saw the reverse. That is strong evidence that this inflation cycle is being driven by domestic cost pressures — transport and services pricing in particular — rather than by the exchange rate.

03 — SynthesisShilling vs. Inflation: The Combined Picture

The shilling is not Tanzania's inflation problem

A currency that appreciated 0.5% over the year, and goods inflation that eased over the same period, together rule out currency weakness as the driver of the current inflation cycle.

Domestic fuel pricing is the more immediate channel

Global oil prices fell while domestic energy and transport inflation rose — the clearest single sign that local pricing mechanics and pass-through lags, not the exchange rate or the world price, are setting the pace this period.

Services inflation is the trend to watch next

Services inflation's rise from 0.8% to 5.7% — now the faster-moving of the two broad categories — points to domestically generated cost pressures (transport, wages, rents) that monetary policy and currency stability alone cannot fully address.

The Central Bank Rate hike targets the right channel

Because this inflation cycle looks domestically driven rather than currency-driven, the July 2026 Central Bank Rate increase to 6.25% — aimed squarely at second-round effects from energy, fertilizer and transport costs — is targeting the mechanism the data actually points to.

04 — RecommendationsWhat This Means for Decision-Makers

Priority 1 — Track Domestic Fuel Pass-Through, Not Just the Exchange Rate

Monitor how fully global crude price movements transmit into domestic petroleum product prices, since this lag — not the shilling — is currently the more active inflation channel.
Treat energy/fuel and transport inflation as leading indicators for core inflation, given their outsized recent contribution.

Priority 2 — Watch Services Inflation as the Emerging Driver

Investigate the domestic cost pressures (transport, labour, rents) behind services inflation's rise from 0.8% to 5.7%, since this is now the larger and faster-moving component of core inflation.
Recognise that currency stability, on its own, will not contain a services-led inflation cycle.

Priority 3 — Keep Reading Shilling Stability and Inflation Separately

Avoid treating exchange-rate stability as a proxy for price stability — this period shows the two can move independently, or even in the same direction.
Continue supporting the export growth (gold, traditional crops, tourism) that is currently keeping the shilling stable, as a distinct policy objective from inflation control.

"A textbook currency crisis pushes prices up because the exchange rate weakens. Tanzania's July 2026 data shows prices rising while the currency strengthens — which means the textbook story isn't the one playing out. The channel to watch is domestic: how fuel prices are set and transmitted, and what is pushing services costs up independently of anything happening to the shilling."

— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)

05 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

Primary source

Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 edition (data through July 2026), including its inflation tables (2.1.1, A9(i)–(iv)) and national debt/exchange-rate tables (A10); World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), August 2026, for global crude oil prices.

Primary data: Bank of Tanzania — Monthly Economic Review, August 2026; National Bureau of Statistics.
Secondary data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), August 2026.
Method: Goods and services inflation, and the food/energy/core contribution breakdown, are taken directly from the Bank of Tanzania's published CPI decomposition (Tables 2.1.1, 2.1.5, and A9(ii)) rather than independently modelled; the global-oil-vs-domestic-inflation comparison pairs each month's average world crude price against the same month's published domestic energy/fuel inflation rate.
Known limitations: This is a descriptive comparison of published series, not an econometric pass-through estimate — it identifies where the data is and is not consistent with a currency-driven inflation story, rather than quantifying a formal elasticity. 2026 figures throughout are provisional (p) or revised (r).
Related TICGL analysis: TICGL/TERI, "Tanzania Shilling Stability vs. National Debt" and "Is Tanzania's Reliance on VAT Fueling Growth or Holding It Back?".

06 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

Is Tanzania's inflation being driven by shilling depreciation?

Not primarily. The shilling actually appreciated 0.5% on an annual basis to July 2026, yet headline inflation rose from 3.3% to 4.2% over the same period. The rise was concentrated in domestically driven transport and services inflation, not in import-heavy goods inflation, which actually eased.

Why did Tanzania's core inflation nearly double in a year?

Core inflation (which excludes unprocessed food and energy) rose from 1.9% in July 2025 to 3.9% in July 2026, mainly reflecting persistently rising transport costs, as recent easing in global fuel prices has not yet been fully transmitted across all domestic petroleum products.

Did falling global oil prices lower Tanzania's fuel inflation?

No — they moved in opposite directions. The average global crude oil price fell 2.3% month-on-month to USD 79.80 a barrel in July 2026, while Tanzania's domestic energy, fuel and utilities inflation rose from 6.3% to 6.9% over the same month, pointing to domestic pricing and taxation factors, not the global oil price or the exchange rate, as the more immediate driver.

Is goods inflation or services inflation driving Tanzania's headline rate?

Services inflation has been the faster-rising and now larger driver, climbing from 0.8% in July 2025 to 5.7% in July 2026, while goods inflation — the category most exposed to import prices and the exchange rate — actually eased slightly, from 4.7% to 3.3%, consistent with a stable-to-appreciating shilling.

Does a stable shilling guarantee low inflation in Tanzania?

No. Tanzania's inflation rose over a period when the shilling was stable and even appreciated, showing that domestic factors — fuel pricing and taxation, transport costs, and rising services prices — can push inflation up independently of currency performance.

Muhtasari

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

Shilingi ya Tanzania dhidi ya Mfumuko wa Bei — Uchambuzi wa Agosti 2026. — Ripoti hii ya TICGL/TERI inachunguza uhusiano kati ya utendaji wa shilingi ya Tanzania na mfumuko wa bei, ikitumia Taarifa ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT) ya Agosti 2026. Kinyume na mtazamo wa kawaida kwamba shilingi dhaifu ndiyo huchochea mfumuko wa bei, takwimu za kipindi hiki zinaonesha jambo tofauti.

Matokeo makuu: Wakati shilingi iliongezeka thamani kwa asilimia 0.5 kwa mwaka hadi Julai 2026, mfumuko wa bei uliongezeka kutoka asilimia 3.3 hadi asilimia 4.2, na mfumuko wa bei wa msingi (core inflation) uliongezeka karibu mara mbili kutoka asilimia 1.9 hadi asilimia 3.9. Bei ya mafuta duniani ilipungua kwa asilimia 2.3 mwezi Julai, lakini mfumuko wa bei za nishati na mafuta nchini uliongezeka kutoka asilimia 6.3 hadi asilimia 6.9 — dalili kwamba utaratibu wa ndani wa kupanga bei za mafuta, siyo bei ya dunia wala thamani ya shilingi, ndio unaosukuma mfumuko huu. Zaidi ya hayo, mfumuko wa bei za bidhaa (goods), zinazoathiriwa zaidi na uagizaji nje, ulipungua kutoka asilimia 4.7 hadi asilimia 3.3, wakati mfumuko wa bei za huduma (services) uliongezeka kwa kasi kutoka asilimia 0.8 hadi asilimia 5.7.

Uchambuzi wa TICGL unahitimisha kuwa mfumuko wa bei wa sasa Tanzania hausukumwi hasa na thamani ya shilingi, bali na mambo ya ndani — hasa gharama za usafiri zinazotokana na jinsi bei za mafuta zinavyowekwa nchini, pamoja na kupanda kwa gharama za huduma. Hii inamaanisha kuwa uthabiti wa shilingi peke yake hautoshi kudhibiti mfumuko wa bei; hatua za ziada zinahitajika kushughulikia vyanzo vya ndani vya gharama, hasa sekta ya usafiri na huduma.

Mfumuko wa Bei (Julai 2026): asilimia 4.2 — kutoka asilimia 3.3 mwaka mmoja uliopita
Mfumuko wa Bei wa Msingi (Core): asilimia 3.9 — karibu mara mbili ya asilimia 1.9 ya mwaka uliopita
Shilingi (mabadiliko ya mwaka): +asilimia 0.5 — imeongezeka thamani, siyo kupungua
Mfumuko wa Usafiri: asilimia 13.8 — kutoka asilimia 1.2 mwaka mmoja uliopita
Mfumuko wa Huduma (Services): asilimia 5.7 — kutoka asilimia 0.8, sasa ndio chanzo kikuu

Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BOT), Taarifa ya Kila Mwezi ya Uchumi, Agosti 2026; Takwimu za Bei za Bidhaa Duniani, Benki ya Dunia; uchambuzi wa TICGL/TERI, Septemba 2026.

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Read this alongside TICGL's flagship Dira 2050 policy-gaps analysis

About TERI — TICGL's Research Institute

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers From the August 2026 Review

Headline, Core, Food and Energy Inflation, July 2025 - July 2026

03 — Global BackdropThe External Environment Tanzania Is Operating In

1. Inflation: Back Above Its Recent Range, Led by Fuel Pass-Through

2. Monetary Policy Tightens, Yet Credit Keeps Accelerating

Interest Rate Structure, July 2025 - July 2026

Broad Money (M3) and Private Sector Credit Growth, 2018-2025

3. The External Sector: Gold-Led Export Growth Isn't Keeping Pace With Imports

Exports and Imports of Goods, 2018-2025

4. Government Budget and National Debt: Revenue Ahead of Target, Debt Broadly Stable

National Debt Stock by Component, July 2025 - July 2026

5. Zanzibar: Hotter Inflation, a Narrowing External Surplus

Mainland vs. Zanzibar Headline Inflation, July 2026

06 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: August 2026 in One Picture

07 — RecommendationsWhat This Means for Businesses and Investors

Priority 1 — Watch the Inflation-Credit Combination

Priority 2 — Build FX and Import-Cost Buffers

Priority 3 — Track Debt Composition, Not Just the Headline Number

Priority 4 — Treat Zanzibar as a Distinct Market

08 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

09 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

What is Tanzania's inflation rate as of July 2026?

Did the Bank of Tanzania raise interest rates in 2026?

Is Tanzania's current account deficit widening?

What is Tanzania's national debt stock in 2026?

How does Zanzibar's inflation compare to mainland Tanzania's?

10 — Explore MoreTICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools

Is Tanzania's Reliance on VAT Fueling Growth or Holding It Back?

Is Tanzania's Economy Growing?

What's Next for Tanzania's Economy? The Policy Gaps Keeping $1 Trillion Out of Reach by 2050

What Opportunities and Risks Define Doing Business in Tanzania in 2026?

Why Tanzania's Economic Growth Has Not Been Sufficiently Inclusive

Tanzania Business Intelligence Dashboard

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

The third piece in TICGL/TERI's current macro-fiscal reading

About TERI — TICGL's Research Institute

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers From the External Debt Stock

External Debt Stock by Borrower, Jul-25 – Jul-26

03 — MethodologyConverting External Debt Into Shillings

1. External Debt Stock by Borrower: The Central Government's Debt, Overwhelmingly

2. Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds: Budget Support and Infrastructure Lead

Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds — Percentage Share

3. Currency Composition: Dollar-Dominated, With a Slowly Rising Euro Share

Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency Composition — Percentage Share

05 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: External Debt in One Picture

06 — RecommendationsPolicy Directions on External Debt

Priority 1 — Separate FX Effects From New Borrowing in Public Reporting

Priority 2 — Monitor Private-Sector Arrears Growth

Priority 3 — Stress-Test Currency Concentration

Priority 4 — Keep Use-of-Funds Reporting Granular

07 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations

08 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions

How large is Tanzania's external debt stock in Tanzanian shillings?

Who holds Tanzania's external debt?

What is Tanzania's external debt used for?

What currencies is Tanzania's external debt denominated in?

Why convert Tanzania's external debt into shillings instead of using the Bank of Tanzania's dollar figures?

09 — Explore MoreTICGL Economic: Related Insights & Tools

Tanzania's External Sector Performance

Tanzania's Central Government Budgetary Operations

Tanzania Government Revenue & Expenditure, 2000-2026

Is Tanzania's Economy Growing?

What Opportunities and Risks Define Doing Business in Tanzania in 2026?

Tanzania Business Intelligence Dashboard

Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili

01 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Read this alongside TICGL's flagship Dira 2050 policy-gaps analysis

About TERI — TICGL's Research Institute

02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers, in TZS Trillions

Tanzania's National Debt Stock, July 2025 - July 2026

03 — MethodologyHow the Trillion-Shilling Figures Were Built

1. The National Debt Stock and Its Recent Trend

2. External Debt Structure: Who Owes It, and to Whom

External Debt by Borrower

External Debt by Creditor

3. What the Borrowed Money Is For, and What Currency It's In