Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd

| Economic Research Centre

Shilling Depreciation: April 2024 Analysis
June 13, 2024  
Shilling Depreciation: April 2024 Analysis The Tanzania shilling (TZS) experienced notable depreciation against the US dollar in April 2024. This trend is critical for understanding the economic conditions and pressures facing Tanzania's foreign exchange market. Key Points: Depreciation Rate= ((2,584.69−2,563.07)/2,563.07)100≈0.84% 3. Annual Exchange Rate Change: Contributing Factors to Depreciation: Hence, the depreciation of the Tanzania shilling […]

Shilling Depreciation: April 2024 Analysis

The Tanzania shilling (TZS) experienced notable depreciation against the US dollar in April 2024. This trend is critical for understanding the economic conditions and pressures facing Tanzania's foreign exchange market.

Key Points:

  1. Monthly Exchange Rate:
    • In April 2024, the shilling traded at an average rate of TZS 2,584.69 per US dollar.
    • This represents a depreciation compared to the previous month (March 2024), when the average exchange rate was TZS 2,563.07 per US dollar.
  2. Monthly Depreciation:
    • The shilling depreciated by approximately 0.84% from March 2024 to April 2024. This is calculated as:

Depreciation Rate= ((2,584.69−2,563.07)/2,563.07)100≈0.84%

3. Annual Exchange Rate Change:

  • On an annual basis, the shilling experienced an 11.2% depreciation against the US dollar.
  • This indicates a significant weakening of the shilling over the past year, suggesting sustained pressures on the currency.

Contributing Factors to Depreciation:

  1. High Foreign Currency Demand:
    • The increased demand for US dollars, driven by global economic dynamics such as trade requirements, debt servicing, and capital flows, contributed to the depreciation of the Tanzanian shilling. This heightened demand typically puts pressure on the local currency's exchange rate.
  2. Central Bank Intervention:
    • Despite efforts by the Central Bank to stabilize the foreign exchange market through interventions, such as selling USD 69.75 million in April 2024, the shilling still faced depreciation pressures. These interventions aim to manage volatility and ensure adequate supply of foreign currency, but sustained demand can outweigh such efforts.
  3. Economic Implications:
    • The depreciation of the shilling has several economic implications:
      • Import Costs: Imports become more expensive, potentially leading to higher prices for imported goods and inflationary pressures.
      • Debt Servicing: If denominated in foreign currency, servicing external debt becomes more costly for businesses and the government.
      • Investor Sentiment: Continuous depreciation may impact investor confidence in the stability of the local currency and overall economic environment.
  4. Longer-Term Trends:
    • The annual depreciation rate of 11.2% underscores broader challenges facing Tanzania's foreign exchange market over the past year. This trend suggests ongoing structural issues or external economic pressures that affect the shilling's value against major foreign currencies like the US dollar.

Hence, the depreciation of the Tanzania shilling in April 2024 highlights the complex interplay of economic factors impacting the country's foreign exchange market. Despite Central Bank interventions to stabilize the currency, sustained high demand for US dollars and other global economic dynamics have exerted downward pressure on the shilling's value. Monitoring exchange rate trends and understanding the underlying factors driving currency movements remain crucial for policymakers, businesses, and investors in Tanzania.

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