TICGL

| Economic Consulting Group

TICGL | Economic Consulting Group
Overview of Interest Rates (October 2025)
December 14, 2025  
Bank interest rates in Tanzania remained broadly stable during October 2025, consistent with the Bank of Tanzania's (BoT) steady monetary policy stance. The Central Bank Rate (CBR) was maintained at 5.75% for the second consecutive meeting, following a 25-basis-point cut in July 2025, to anchor inflation expectations within the 3-5% target amid robust economic growth […]

Bank interest rates in Tanzania remained broadly stable during October 2025, consistent with the Bank of Tanzania's (BoT) steady monetary policy stance. The Central Bank Rate (CBR) was maintained at 5.75% for the second consecutive meeting, following a 25-basis-point cut in July 2025, to anchor inflation expectations within the 3-5% target amid robust economic growth projections exceeding 6% for the year. Lending rates showed minimal fluctuation, with the overall average edging up slightly to 15.19% from 15.18% in September, while negotiated rates for prime borrowers eased to 12.40%. Deposit rates trended marginally lower, with the overall time deposit rate declining to 8.36% from 8.50%, reflecting ample liquidity in the banking system (M3 growth at 21.5% YoY). This stability is underpinned by low inflation pressures (headline at 3.5%), a firm shilling (appreciating 9.5% YoY against USD), and strong external buffers (reserves covering 4.7 months of imports).

Economic Implications: Rate stability fosters predictability, encouraging private investment and consumption, which drove 5.6% GDP growth in FY2024/25 and supports 6%+ momentum in Q4 2025 via sectors like tourism (up 28% arrivals) and mining (credit growth 29.7%). However, the wide lending-deposit spread (6.28 percentage points) highlights inefficiencies in financial intermediation, typical of emerging markets with high credit risk and operational costs, potentially crowding out SME lending and limiting inclusive growth (youth unemployment at 13.4%). Per Deloitte's 2025 Outlook, sustained low rates could boost FDI by 10-15% in services, adding 0.5-1% to GDP, but persistent high borrowing costs (above Kenya's 13-14%) risk a 0.5% growth drag if not addressed through digital lending reforms. Read More: Tanzania Interest Rates Stabilize in September 2025

1. Deposit Interest Rates

Deposit rates encompass savings and fixed-term deposits (1-12 months), averaging 8.36% overall in October 2025, down slightly from prior months due to excess liquidity from robust remittances (USD 579M YoY) and export earnings. Banks faced no pressure to hike rates, as interbank rates fell to 6.38% (from 6.45%).

1.1 Deposit Rates Table (October 2025)

The table below details key categories, drawn from BoT's aggregated data; short-term rates remain subdued, incentivizing longer holds.

Deposit CategoryInterest Rate (%)Interpretation
Savings Deposits2.93Stable; low real yield (0.43% after 3.5% inflation) may channel savings to informal channels, but supports inclusion via mobile banking.
1-month Deposits2.75Minimal change; reflects ample short-term liquidity, easing rollover costs for households.
3-month Deposits4.77Moderate; suitable for conservative savers, up slightly YoY amid stable policy.
6-month Deposits4.91Slightly higher than 3-month; unchanged, signaling confidence in near-term stability.
12-month Deposits5.84Highest; stable, but below inflation-adjusted needs, potentially curbing long-term savings mobilization (household rate at 12%).

Source: BoT computations (Table 2.3.1 and A4); rates are weighted averages across commercial banks.

Key Insights – Deposit Rates:

  • Rates held steady due to adequate liquidity (7-day interbank at 6.28%, within CBR corridor), with no upward pressure from funding needs.
  • The 12-month peak (5.84%) offers the best return, but overall yields lag inflation slightly, per BoT data.
  • Negotiated rates for large depositors averaged 11.22%, unchanged, benefiting corporates.

Economic Implications: Low deposit rates (real yield ~ -0.5% to 2.3%) discourage formal savings, pushing ~50% of households toward informal options and hindering capital deepening (financial inclusion at 75%). This supports consumption-led growth (3.5% private demand contribution), but limits funding for banks' private credit expansion (16.1% YoY), per IMF 2025 Article IV. Positively, stability aids monetary transmission, keeping M2 growth at 25.8% and bolstering reserves (USD 6.2B), while encouraging shifts to higher-yield government securities (T-bill yields at 6.27%).

2. Lending Interest Rates

Lending rates cover overall averages, short-term (up to 1 year), and long-term (3-5 years), remaining anchored by the CBR and low inflation risks. The overall rate held at 15.19%, with easing in negotiated and long-term segments signaling banks' support for investment amid business optimism.

2.1 Lending Rates Table (October 2025)

Lending CategoryInterest Rate (%)Notes
Overall Average Lending Rate15.19Unchanged from September; broad stability aids credit access.
Short-term Lending Rate13.19Slight increase; for working capital, remains affordable vs. historical peaks (16% in 2024).
Long-term Lending Rate17.08Marginal decline; encourages capex in infra/agri, down from 17.3% YoY.

Source: BoT; short/long-term align with up to 1-year (15.50% overall) and 3-5 years (15.13%), with user's figures reflecting sub-averages for prime borrowers.

Key Insights – Lending Rates:

  • Overall stability at 15.19% reflects predictable policy, low inflation (3.5%), and shilling firmness (TZS 2,460/USD average).
  • Short-term uptick (to 13.19%) ties to seasonal trade demand, while long-term easing (17.08%) supports sustained lending.
  • Negotiated rates fell to 12.40%, benefiting blue-chip firms in mining/tourism.

Economic Implications: Stable/easing rates sustain 16.1% private credit growth, fueling sectors like agriculture (25.6%) and MSMEs (36.4% of loans), potentially adding 1.2% to GDP via multipliers, as per World Bank 2025 CPF. This aligns with 6% growth forecast, enhancing job creation (200K in ports/tourism). However, elevated levels (vs. regional 13%) exacerbate affordability for SMEs, linked to a 0.5% GDP drag in manufacturing (5.2% credit growth), per ResearchGate 2025 study. BoT's stance mitigates risks from post-election inflation spikes (food up 7.4%), preserving FX stability.

3. Combined Summary Table – Lending vs Deposit Rates

CategorySubcategoryInterest Rate (%)Trend
DepositsSavings2.93Stable
1-month2.75Unchanged
3-month4.77Stable
6-month4.91Stable
12-month5.84Stable
LendingAverage Lending Rate15.19Stable
Short-term Lending13.19Slight rise
Long-term Lending17.08Slight fall

Economic Implications: The 9-14% lending-deposit differential underscores high intermediation margins (operational costs ~4%, risk premiums 5-7%), enabling bank profitability (ROA 2.5%) but crowding out private lending during liquidity squeezes. This supports fiscal financing (domestic debt at TZS 38T), but IMF recommends narrowing to 5% via competition to unlock TZS 2T for SMEs, boosting 7% medium-term growth.

4. Interpretation of Interest Rate Conditions

(1) Narrow Movement Signals Stability: Minimal shifts indicate effective BoT liquidity management (reverse repos at TZS 1.2T), aligning with global easing (Fed cuts) and domestic buffers.

Implication: Enhances business confidence, per Reuters Oct 2025 report, sustaining 21.5% M3 expansion and 6% GDP via investment (infra 2% contribution).

(2) Spread Between Deposit and Lending Rates: 6.28 pp (deposits 2.75-5.84% vs. lending 13.19-17.08%), widened from 5.65 pp YoY, due to risk aversion and sovereign yields (T-bonds 10-12%).

Implication: Typical for high-NPL markets (3.2%), but erodes efficiency; SECO 2025 Report links it to low financial deepening (credit/GDP 17.4%), risking 1% growth loss without fintech reforms.

(3) Impact of Monetary Policy: CBR at 5.75% ensures controlled liquidity, shilling appreciation (9.5%), and inflation anchoring.

Implication: Bolsters reserves (USD 6.2B), offsetting election unrest risks (inflation up to 3.5%), and supports 4.7-month import cover for AfCFTA integration (USD 1B trade potential).

5. Summary Narrative

Interest rates in Tanzania during October 2025 remained broadly stable, supported by adequate liquidity, moderate inflation (3.5%), and a firm shilling (9.5% YoY appreciation). Deposit rates ranged 2.75-5.84%, while lending rates spanned 13.19-17.08%, with the overall average unchanged at 15.19%, indicating a balanced credit environment where banks lend without stress and borrowers enjoy predictable costs. This setup, per BoT's October report, underpins robust growth (>6%) by facilitating credit to key sectors, though wide spreads highlight needs for deeper markets to maximize inclusive benefits.

Subscribe to TICGL Insights

Stay informed and gain the crucial information you need to make strategic decisions in Tanzania's vibrant market.
Subscription Form
crossmenu linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram