Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes only. It is not investment, legal, tax or financial advice and does not state the position of the Bank of Tanzania or the Government. All sector figures come from the Bank of Tanzania Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report for 12-16 October 2026; figures marked "TICGL calc." are our arithmetic on those numbers. The report does not define "purchases" and "sales" in its sector table: we read purchases as dollars banks bought from customers (supply of dollars) and sales as dollars banks sold to customers (use of dollars). Price, import, external-balance and growth evidence in Tab 4 comes from the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (data to August 2026). The link from weekly dollar flows to those outcomes is analytical, not a measured causal effect. One week of flow data is a short window: patterns may not persist.
00 — OverviewExecutive Summary
Tanzania's dollar market has a simple structure in the week to 16 October 2026. Two commodity sectors, mining and agriculture, sold banks far more dollars than they bought back. A different group of sectors, led by oil and energy and manufacturing, did the opposite. Trade, the biggest sector by turnover, swung from heavy net buying to small net selling. The result is a banking system that bought USD 121.35 million more than it sold, a shilling that moved only 0.07% to TZS 2,633.12 per dollar, and a question: how dependent is that stability on two sectors?
Who Supplies and Who Uses the Dollars
Cover Ratio: Mining and Agriculture Net Inflow vs Oil and Energy Net Need
Key findings
- Two sectors supplied nine tenths of the net inflow. Mining and agriculture netted USD 109.83 million, 90.5% of the banks' USD 121.35 million net purchase.
- Oil and energy is the largest single net buyer. It bought USD 57.06 million, 23.6% of all dollars banks sold, and netted USD 49.33 million after selling USD 7.73 million back.
- The cover is comfortable this week and thin last week. The cover was 1.25 times in the week of 5 October (USD 72.99 million against USD 58.56 million) and 2.2 times in the week of 12 October. It nearly doubled in seven days, which also shows how quickly it can move the other way.
- Level and swing have different drivers. Mining and agriculture explain the level of the inflow, but trade explains 54% of the USD 185.29 million swing in net flows from the previous week (TICGL calc.).
- The oil dollar bill is large next to the interbank market. Oil's net need alone is 2.5 times the entire weekly interbank FX turnover of USD 19.70 million, so it cannot be met in that market alone.
- It costs real shillings every day. Oil bought about USD 11.4 million per weekday, roughly TZS 30.0 billion; each 1% shilling depreciation adds about TZS 1.5 billion a week to that purchase.
- The Monthly Economic Review confirms the pressure is real. Petroleum imports rose 51.7% to USD 3,425.6 million in the year to August 2026, transport inflation is 13.8% against 1.4% a year earlier, and the current account deficit widened 45.9% to USD 2,481.8 million. Headline inflation is still 4.3%, inside the 3-5% target, and annual real growth data run to 2025 only (Tab 4).
- The stress point is closer than it looks. On the latest week's numbers, mining and agriculture would have to fall 55% before the cushion over oil disappears; on the previous week's numbers, only 20%.
The shilling is being held steady by dollars from two commodity sectors that are spent largely by one import-heavy sector. That works as long as the flow continues, and the report gives no sign it will stop. But the cushion varied by a factor of nearly two in a single week, and the same dollar needs push on prices and costs every working day. The next four tabs show who supplies, what oil needs, how it feeds through to the economy, and where the stress points are.
01 — Who Supplies, Who UsesDollar Flows by Sector: Supply, Use and What Changed
The Bank of Tanzania's retail FX table splits every bank-customer dollar transaction by sector. Reading it as supply (dollars banks bought) and use (dollars banks sold) shows which sectors the shilling depends on. Retail turnover rose to USD 604.89 million; purchases were USD 363.12 million and sales USD 241.77 million.
| Sector (USD million) | Bought by banks (supply) | Sold by banks (use) | Net, this week | Net, prior week | Change in net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining | 65.77 | 8.41 | +57.36 | +42.33 | +15.03 |
| Agriculture | 62.74 | 10.27 | +52.47 | +30.66 | +21.81 |
| Transport & Communication | 29.80 | 6.03 | +23.77 | +13.21 | +10.56 |
| Tourism | 24.81 | 2.07 | +22.74 | +17.68 | +5.06 |
| Trade | 97.56 | 83.72 | +13.84 | -86.10 | +99.94 |
| Individual Retail Customers | 25.38 | 15.84 | +9.54 | -0.45 | +9.99 |
| NGOs | 9.05 | 2.37 | +6.68 | +6.45 | +0.23 |
| Social Services | 10.44 | 5.31 | +5.13 | +1.96 | +3.17 |
| Constructions (Machine & Equipment) | 19.44 | 19.73 | -0.29 | -0.32 | +0.03 |
| Breweries / Beverages | 0.13 | 2.96 | -2.83 | -4.70 | +1.87 |
| Manufacturing | 10.29 | 27.99 | -17.70 | -26.11 | +8.41 |
| Oil & Energy | 7.73 | 57.06 | -49.33 | -58.56 | +9.23 |
| Total (as published) | 363.12 | 241.77 | +121.35 | -63.94 | +185.29 |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2; net and change columns are TICGL calc. Sector nets add to the published total within USD 0.05 million of rounding.
Net Dollar Position by Sector, This Week
Share of Dollars Supplied vs Share Used, by Sector
1.1 Net suppliers and net buyers
Eight sectors were net suppliers of dollars, together USD 191.53 million. Four were net buyers: oil and energy (USD 49.33 million), manufacturing (USD 17.70 million), breweries (USD 2.83 million) and construction (USD 0.29 million), together USD 70.15 million (TICGL calc.). Mining and agriculture alone supplied 57% of what the eight supplying sectors netted, and the net buyers are the import-intensive part of the economy: fuel, factory inputs, brewing materials and equipment.
1.2 The level and the swing have different drivers
Net flows moved by USD 185.29 million in one week, from a net sale of USD 63.94 million to a net purchase of USD 121.35 million. Mining and agriculture added USD 36.84 million to that swing (19.9%). Trade added USD 99.94 million (53.9%): it moved from net buying of USD 86.10 million to net selling of USD 13.84 million as purchases more than doubled and sales fell 35.8%. Everything else together added the remaining 26%.
What Drove the USD 185 Million Swing?
Mining + Agriculture Net Inflow vs Oil Net Need, Two Weeks
Two separate risks sit in this table. The first is dependence: the level of the net inflow rests on mining and agriculture. The second is volatility: week to week, the swing rests on trade, where a USD 86 million net outflow one week became a USD 14 million net inflow the next. A stable shilling needs both the commodity inflow to hold and trade flows to stay near balance. The report does not show what trade flows consist of, so the cause of the trade reversal is not known from this data.
02 — Oil & Energy's AppetiteHow Big Is the Oil Sector's Dollar Demand?
Oil and energy bought USD 57.06 million from banks this week, down from USD 66.37 million, and sold back only USD 7.73 million (USD 7.81 million the week before). Sector turnover fell 12.7% to USD 64.78 million. Its net need of USD 49.33 million is below last week's USD 58.56 million but still larger than any other sector's.
| Oil & Energy | Week of 5 Oct | Week of 12 Oct | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollars sold by banks to the sector (USD m) | 66.37 | 57.06 | -14.0% |
| Dollars bought by banks from the sector (USD m) | 7.81 | 7.73 | -1.0% |
| Net need (USD m) | 58.56 | 49.33 | -15.8% |
| Total turnover (USD m) | 74.18 | 64.78 | -12.7% |
| Share of all dollars sold by banks | 22.2% | 23.6% | +1.4 pts |
| Gross need per weekday (USD m, weekly / 5) | 13.27 | 11.41 | -14.0% |
| Gross need per weekday at 16 Oct rate (TZS bn) | n.a. | 30.05 | |
| Net need at 16 Oct rate (TZS bn a week) | n.a. | 129.89 |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Table 2; shares, per-weekday and TZS conversions are TICGL calc. at TZS 2,633.12 per dollar (the 16 October mean rate). The oil sector's fall in sales went with a fall in turnover; the report does not say whether volumes or prices changed.
Oil & Energy: Supply, Use and Net
Daily Scale of the Dollar Flows
2.1 Why oil's dollar need is a macroeconomic issue, not a sector issue
- It is large against the wholesale market. Oil's net weekly need of USD 49.33 million is 2.5 times the weekly interbank FX turnover (USD 19.70 million). Mining and agriculture's net supply is 5.6 times it. The sector flows are therefore bigger than the market where banks trade among themselves to even out positions.
- It is repeated every week. Oil's net need was USD 58.56 million and USD 49.33 million in the two weeks of the report: a steady drain rather than an occasional spike.
- It does not offset itself. For every dollar oil takes from banks it supplies back only 14 cents (USD 7.73 million against USD 57.06 million). Trade, by contrast, supplied 34 cents per dollar taken in the prior week and USD 1.17 this week, which is why trade's net can swing both ways while oil's stays negative.
- It sits alongside other import-heavy sectors. Manufacturing supplied about 37 cents for every dollar it took (USD 10.29 million against USD 27.99 million) and breweries almost nothing. Together with oil these are the structural net buyers.
The weekly report covers only dollars that pass through banks in the retail market. It does not show fuel import volumes or prices, the share of fuel financed through other channels, the Bank of Tanzania's own foreign-currency operations, or the Government's dollar payments. The oil figures here are the sector's dollar use through the banking system, not the national fuel import bill. Tab 4 checks them against the Monthly Economic Review: annualised, they equal about 87% of the year-to-August petroleum import bill.
03 — Dollars to Daily ImpactHow the Oil Dollar Bill Reaches Prices and Growth
The dollar gap matters because it is paid in shillings. Each day, oil importers need dollars, banks supply them from the dollars mining and agriculture sold, and the price of the dollar sets what that fuel costs at the pump, in the truck and on the factory floor. This tab shows the chain and puts shilling numbers on its first link.
Tab 3 shows direction and arithmetic. The weekly report has no price, inflation or GDP series; Tab 4 tests the later links against the Monthly Economic Review.
3.1 The first link in numbers: the shilling cost of the oil dollar bill
Try it: what does a weaker shilling add to the oil dollar bill?
Defaults are the report's figures: USD 57.06 million of weekly oil-sector purchases from banks at the 16 October rate. The result is the extra shillings needed to buy the same dollars, a first-round cost before any pass-through to prices.
Extra Weekly Shilling Cost Under the Four Rate Scenarios to 13 November
3.2 Channels to growth, from days to quarters
| Channel | How it works | Who is hit first | In the weekly report | Not in it (see Tab 4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange rate | Dollar shortfall or rising oil demand weakens the shilling within days | All importers; dollar borrowers | Net flows, sector split, rate +0.07% | Daily rate path |
| Fuel and transport costs | A weaker shilling raises the shilling cost of the oil dollar bill, then pump prices and freight | Transport, distribution, farmers moving crops | Oil need USD 49.33 m net a week | Pump prices; import volumes (Tab 4) |
| Production inputs | Manufacturers and brewers pay in dollars for inputs | Manufacturing (net -USD 17.70 m), breweries | Sector nets | Input mix; pass-through to output prices |
| Consumer prices and demand | Higher transport and import costs feed into prices, eroding real income | Households, especially urban and low-income | Nothing direct | Inflation (Tab 4); spending data |
| Debt service | Dollar loans cost more shillings to service when the shilling weakens | Borrowers with shilling revenue | Nothing direct | Dollar loan stock |
| Offsetting gain | A weaker shilling raises shilling income of exporters | Miners, farmers, tourism and transport operators | Mining, agriculture, tourism, transport all net suppliers | Export prices and volumes |
Source: TICGL/TERI analysis. The last two columns separate what the BoT weekly report evidences from what it does not.
Growth is not hit by the oil dollar bill itself, which is a normal cost of running an economy, but by sudden changes in what it costs. A steady flow of mining and agricultural dollars turns oil into a predictable expense. When that flow weakens, the shilling is the shock absorber, and the same oil volume costs more shillings every day. Sectors that earn dollars gain from that shock and sectors that spend dollars lose, so the net effect on growth depends on whether the economy's weight sits more with exporters or with importers and consumers. The report shows exporters carry the dollar supply and the import-heavy sectors carry the dollar need, which is the setup for an uneven effect.
04 — Evidence: Prices & GrowthWhat the Monthly Economic Review Shows: Fuel, Prices, Imports and Growth
The weekly report shows dollar flows. The Bank of Tanzania's Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (data to August 2026) shows what has happened to prices, imports, the external balance and growth. Read together they test the chain in Tab 3: oil dollar demand, then the rate, then costs and prices, then growth. The short answer is that the pressure shows up clearly in imports, the external balance and transport prices, while headline inflation and annual growth data have not moved out of range.
Petroleum Imports, Gold Exports and Current Account Deficit
Annual Inflation by Group: Where Fuel Shows Up
4.1 Fuel to prices: visible in fares, not yet at the pump
| Group (CPI weight) | Aug-25 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline (100.0) | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | Inside the 3-5% target |
| Transport (14.1) | 1.4 | 13.8 | 13.8 | Lagged pass-through of earlier fuel price rises to bus, taxi and motorcycle fares |
| Energy, fuel and utilities (5.7) | 2.6 | 6.9 | 8.5 | Highest since October 2024; driven by charcoal and firewood |
| Core (73.9) | 2.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | Rising steadily since March 2026 |
| Services (37.2) | 0.8 | 5.7 | 5.9 | Up from 0.8% |
| Food (28.2) | 7.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | Easing; favourable supply |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review September 2026, Table 2.1.1.
- Pass-through is real and concentrated. Transport inflation jumped from 1.4% to 13.8% and has stayed at 13.8%. By weight (14.1% x 13.8%) transport alone accounts for roughly 1.9 percentage points of the 4.3% headline rate (TICGL rough calc.).
- It is not coming from pump prices right now. The Review says petrol and diesel prices in Dar es Salaam are well below their June 2026 levels; the energy index is being lifted by charcoal and firewood. Fares kept the earlier increase.
- The upside risk is flagged by the Bank itself. Crude oil averaged USD 84.4 a barrel in August (+5.8% on the month, about 36% above the fourth-quarter 2025 average), and the Review says rising refined-product prices present upside risks to domestic energy inflation.
- Core inflation is rising. Core is 4.1% and has risen steadily since March 2026, which the Bank reads as a gradual build-up of underlying pressure.
4.2 Imports and the external balance
| Year ending August (USD million) | 2025 | 2026p | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petroleum products imports | 2,257.4 | 3,425.6 | +51.7% |
| Imports of goods and services | n.a. | 21,269.2 | +21.4% |
| Exports of goods and services | n.a. | 20,216.2 | +16.4% |
| Goods exports | 9,981.2 | 11,960.8 | +19.8% |
| Gold exports | 4,321.5 | 5,625.0 | +30.2% |
| Freight payments | 1,300.4 | 1,683.4 | +29.5% |
| Service payments | 3,196.2 | 3,498.2 | +9.4% |
| Current account deficit | 1,700.9 | 2,481.8 | +45.9% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (Table 2.7.1 and text); p = provisional. Changes for goods exports, gold, freight and service payments are TICGL calc. where the Review gives levels only; "n.a." = prior-year level not shown in the text.
- Oil is a third of the import increase. Petroleum accounted for about one third of the increase in the goods import bill, and the Review says higher petroleum and intermediate-input costs pushed import growth above export growth, widening the trade and current account deficits.
- Gold is the offset. Gold exports rose USD 1,303.5 million, about 66% of the whole rise in goods exports (USD 1,979.6 million; TICGL calc.), on higher prices and volumes. Gold averaged USD 4,411 an ounce in August, up 8.3% on July. This is the "mining leg" of the dollar cushion in Tab 5.
- In shillings. At the August average rate of TZS 2,657.01, the year-to-August petroleum bill is about TZS 9.1 trillion, TZS 3.1 trillion more than a year earlier at the same rate. Each 1% fall in the shilling adds about TZS 91 billion a year to it (TICGL calc.).
- The weekly flows are a good proxy. Annualised, the oil sector's bank purchases (USD 57.06 million x 52 = USD 2.97 billion) are about 87% of the Review's year-to-August petroleum import bill, so the weekly sector table captures most of the fuel dollar demand.
4.3 The shilling, the Bank's operations and reserves
- The Bank was in the market. In August the Bank sold a net USD 45.4 million in the interbank FX market "to alleviate undue volatility", equal to about 24% of that month's USD 190.3 million of interbank turnover (TICGL calc.). That answers a question the weekly report leaves open: part of the shilling's stability is intervention, not only commodity inflows.
- The rate has been steady. The shilling averaged TZS 2,657.01 in August against TZS 2,653.52 in July. Its 6.7% annual depreciation largely reflects a base effect, as August 2025 averaged an unusually strong TZS 2,490.16.
- Reserves are a buffer. Gross official reserves were USD 5,888.2 million at end-August, 4.2 months of projected imports (excluding FDI-related imports), above the national benchmark, supported by export earnings and the Bank's gold purchase programme.
4.4 Growth: what the long record shows
Real GDP Growth and Inflation, 2018-2025
Current Account Balance, 2018-2025 and Year to Aug-26
- Growth has been steady. Real GDP growth was 5.2% in 2023, 5.6% in 2024 and 5.9% in 2025 (provisional), with inflation between 3.1% and 3.8%. The Review's annual series stops at 2025, so any 2026 growth effect of the fuel and import pressure is not yet visible.
- The deficit had been narrowing, then turned. The current account deficit fell from USD 5,482.2 million in 2022 to USD 2,049.4 million in 2025, then widened to USD 2,481.8 million in the year to August 2026.
- A precedent. In 2022 goods imports jumped 42% (USD 10,003.4 million to 14,208.7 million), the current account deficit reached USD 5.5 billion, growth slowed to 4.6% from 4.9% and inflation rose to 4.3% from 3.7%. The Review does not attribute that episode to one cause, so it is a reference point for what an import-cost shock can look like, not a forecast.
On the evidence to August 2026, the oil dollar bill is a pressure on the external balance, on transport costs and on core inflation, and the Bank is managing it with reserves and FX operations, while gold earnings pay for most of it. It is not yet a visible drag on headline inflation (4.3%, inside target) or on annual growth (5.9% in 2025). The risk is the combination in Tab 5: if gold prices or volumes soften while crude stays near USD 84 a barrel, the cushion thins, reserves and intervention carry more of the load, and the fare-style pass-through seen in transport spreads to the rest of the basket.
No source here gives 2026 quarterly GDP, fuel pump prices in shillings per litre (the Review shows them only in a chart), or the share of the transport price rise caused by the exchange rate rather than by global crude prices. The effects are therefore described, not decomposed.
05 — Stress TestWhat If Mining and Agriculture Slow? The Cushion Over Oil
The stress test uses one rule: net surplus = mining and agriculture net inflow x (1 - fall) minus oil net need x (1 + rise). The only inputs are the Bank's weekly numbers. A positive result means the two commodity sectors still more than cover oil. A negative one means other sectors or the Bank would have to fill the gap. The rule ignores everything else in the dollar market, so it measures the cushion, not the exchange rate.
4.1 Latest week as the base
| Fall in mining + agriculture inflow | Oil need unchanged | Oil +10% | Oil +20% | Oil +30% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No fall | +60.5 | +55.6 | +50.6 | +45.7 |
| -10% | +49.5 | +44.6 | +39.7 | +34.7 |
| -20% | +38.5 | +33.6 | +28.7 | +23.7 |
| -30% | +27.6 | +22.6 | +17.7 | +12.8 |
| -40% | +16.6 | +11.6 | +6.7 | +1.8 |
| -50% | +5.6 | +0.7 | -4.3 | -9.2 |
| -60% | -5.4 | -10.3 | -15.3 | -20.2 |
Net surplus in USD million a week. Base: mining + agriculture USD 109.83 m, oil USD 49.33 m (week of 12 Oct). Red = deficit; TICGL calc.
4.2 Previous week as the base
| Fall in mining + agriculture inflow | Oil need unchanged | Oil +10% | Oil +20% | Oil +30% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No fall | +14.4 | +8.6 | +2.7 | -3.1 |
| -10% | +7.1 | +1.3 | -4.6 | -10.4 |
| -20% | -0.2 | -6.0 | -11.9 | -17.7 |
| -30% | -7.5 | -13.3 | -19.2 | -25.0 |
| -40% | -14.8 | -20.6 | -26.5 | -32.3 |
| -50% | -22.1 | -27.9 | -33.8 | -39.6 |
| -60% | -29.4 | -35.2 | -41.1 | -46.9 |
Net surplus in USD million a week. Base: mining + agriculture USD 72.99 m, oil USD 58.56 m (week of 5 Oct). Red = deficit; TICGL calc.
Net Surplus Over Oil: Latest-Week Base
Net Surplus Over Oil: Prior-Week Base
4.3 What the stress test says
- The two weeks give very different answers. The break-even fall is 55% on the latest week and 20% on the previous week. A week of good inflows hides how quickly the cushion can shrink.
- Oil demand matters about as much as supply. A 20% rise in oil demand costs about USD 9.9 million a week of cushion on the latest base, the same as a 9% fall in mining and agriculture.
- A fall in the surplus is not the same as a fall in the shilling. Other sectors, bank positions and the Bank of Tanzania's operations can fill a gap. The test shows where the pressure would start.
- Agriculture is the faster mover. Its purchases rose 62.4% in one week; a seasonal export rise (which the report does not state) could fade as quickly. Mining's purchases rose 29.4% (USD 50.82 million to 65.77 million).
If the cushion shrinks, the first signs would be a larger net sale of dollars by trade, banks selling more than they buy in the retail market, interbank FX turnover climbing from its USD 4-5 million a day, and a faster weekly rise in the mean rate than the 0.07% seen now.
06 — Risks & PolicyDependence, Volatility and the Policy Options
| Risk | Evidence in the BoT report | Likelihood (next 4 weeks) | Impact | Most exposed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodity-inflow slowdown | Mining + agriculture supplied 90.5% of net inflow; agriculture purchases +62.4% in one week | Medium | High | Shilling; import-heavy sectors |
| Oil demand rise | Oil bought USD 57.06 m, 23.6% of dollars sold; supplies back only 14 cents per dollar | Medium | High | Importers; transport; consumers |
| Thin cushion in weak weeks | Cover 1.25x in the week of 5 Oct; break-even fall 19.8% | Medium | Medium | Exchange-rate stability |
| Trade flow reversals | Trade drove 53.9% of the USD 185 m swing; net USD -86.10 m to +13.84 m | Medium | Medium | Weekly rate path |
| Thin interbank market | USD 19.70 m a week vs USD 49.33 m oil net need | Medium | Medium | Price discovery |
| Manufacturing input squeeze | Manufacturing net -USD 17.70 m; supplies about 37 cents per dollar it takes | Low | Medium | Factories; construction suppliers |
| Fuel pass-through to consumer prices | Monthly Review: transport inflation 13.8% (14.1% CPI weight), energy and utilities 8.5%, crude USD 84.4 a barrel | Medium | Medium | Households; transport users |
| Widening current account | Monthly Review: deficit USD 2,481.8 m, +45.9%; petroleum imports +51.7%; reserves 4.2 months of imports | Medium | High | Reserves; the shilling |
| Dollar debt service | No direct data; weaker shilling raises debt cost | Low | Medium | Borrowers with shilling revenue |
Source: TICGL/TERI analysis. Likelihood and impact are analytical judgements (Low/Medium/High), not model outputs.
5.1 Policy options, by horizon
Next four weeks
- Monitoring. Track the cover ratio (mining + agriculture net over oil net) weekly; a reading below 1.5 flags a thin cushion.
- Transparency. Publish sector flows by commodity (gold, crops, fuel) alongside the weekly report.
- Liquidity and FX operations. Keep the Bank's operations flexible while net flows swing by more than USD 150 million a week.
Medium term (1-3 years)
- Smooth the oil bill. Payment scheduling and pooled procurement so fuel purchases do not peak with weak export weeks.
- Widen dollar supply. Add value in minerals and crops, and grow services exports such as tourism and transport, both already net suppliers.
- Hedging. Products for fuel importers and dollar borrowers.
Longer term (to 2030)
- Reduce dollar fuel intensity. Energy-mix and efficiency measures that cut the dollar cost per unit of output.
- Diversify exports. Lower the share of net inflow from two sectors.
- Deeper FX market. Raise interbank volumes so large sector flows are absorbed without moving the rate.
"A stable shilling is not proof of a balanced dollar economy. It can also mean two sectors are paying for a third."
— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)
Mining and agriculture earn most of the dollars that banks took in during the week to 16 October 2026, and oil and energy is the largest sector spending them. The two sides balance with room to spare, but the cover moved from 1.25 to 2.2 times in one week and the cushion would be exhausted by a 55% fall in the two commodity sectors (20% on the earlier week's numbers). The policy task is to keep the cushion thick, make the oil bill predictable, and widen the sources of dollars.
07 — TICGL & Your ProjectFrom Sector Dollar Flows to Project Decisions
TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, turns market data into feasibility studies, market-entry advisory and market research. Dollar flows matter to each of them, because whether a business earns or spends dollars decides how it fares when the shilling moves.
| Business profile | Dollar position | Effect of a 1% weaker shilling | What a TICGL study would test |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel importer or fuel-intensive transport firm | Net dollar buyer (like oil and energy) | Cost up about 1% on dollar-priced purchases | Pricing power, pass-through, hedging, payment timing |
| Mining operator or crop exporter | Net dollar supplier | Shilling revenue up; local costs unchanged | Local-cost share, export price sensitivity, financing currency |
| Manufacturer with imported inputs | Net buyer (net -USD 17.70 m) | Input costs up; output prices may follow | Input substitution, margin squeeze, working-capital cost |
| Tourism or transport operator | Net supplier | Shilling income up | Currency mix of revenue and costs |
| Project with a dollar loan and shilling revenue | Short dollars | Debt service up in shillings | DSCR under FX scenarios, currency of funding |
Source: TICGL/TERI analysis based on the sector nets in BoT Table 2; indicative only.
6.1 Worked example
A transport company with a USD 5 million dollar loan owes TZS 13,166 million at 2,633.12. At 2,659.56 (the faster-depreciation scenario, +1.0% by 13 November) the debt is TZS 13,298 million: TZS 132 million more with no change in the loan. If the same company buys fuel worth USD 1 million a month, a 1% weaker shilling adds TZS 26 million a month to fuel cost. A feasibility or market-entry model puts both in the downside case and tests whether margins survive.
Feasibility studies
- Full feasibility across market, technical, financial, institutional, legal and risk components.
- Financial models with NPV, IRR and DSCR under exchange-rate scenarios like those on this page.
- Funding-currency analysis: dollar or shilling debt for dollar or shilling revenue.
Market entry advisory
- Sector screening by dollar position: net suppliers and net buyers.
- Entry mode and cost-base design that matches currency of revenue to currency of cost.
- Business facilitation from first meeting to registration and start-up.
Market research and intelligence
- Weekly tracking of sector dollar flows and the cover ratio.
- Scenario models updated with each Bank of Tanzania release.
- Research publications and briefs through TERI.
Talk to TICGL/TERI
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What We Do →TICGL Markets →TERI Research →✉️ economist@ticgl.com08 - SourcesMethod & Source Note
Source report. Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 12-OCT-2026 to 16-OCT-2026: Table 1 (exchange rates), Table 2 (retail foreign exchange by sector), interbank FX turnover. TICGL calculations. Net position = purchases minus sales; shares; contribution to the weekly swing = change in each sector's net; cover ratio = mining and agriculture net divided by oil and energy net need; weekday figures = weekly total divided by five; TZS conversions at TZS 2,633.12 per dollar; stress-test surplus = (mining and agriculture net x (1 - fall)) minus (oil net x (1 + rise)). Scenario rates. 2,622.60 / 2,633.12 / 2,640.50 / 2,659.56 are the 16 October mean rate compounded weekly at -0.10%, 0.00%, +0.07% and +0.25% to 13 November 2026. Monthly Economic Review figures. Inflation, petroleum imports, gold exports, freight, current account, reserves, exchange-rate averages and the 2018-2025 growth and current-account series are quoted as published; the transport contribution (about 1.9 points = 14.1% weight x 13.8%), the TZS value of petroleum imports (USD 3,425.6 m at the August average TZS 2,657.01 = TZS 9.10 trillion) and the 87% cross-check (USD 57.06 m x 52 divided by USD 3,425.6 m) are TICGL arithmetic. Limitations. "Purchases" and "sales" are not defined in the weekly report; one week of flow data; the Monthly Review's annual GDP series ends in 2025 (provisional), so any 2026 growth effect is not yet visible; the report covers bank-customer dollar flows, not all central-bank or government operations.
- Bank of Tanzania, Domestic Financial Markets Weekly Report, 12-16 October 2026, Dar es Salaam.
- Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, September 2026 (data to August 2026): inflation (Table 2.1.1), petroleum imports and current account (Table 2.7.1, Chart 2.7.4), exchange rate and interbank market, Statistical Tables A1 and A5.
- TICGL/TERI, Tanzania Domestic Financial Markets Weekly, 12-16 October 2026 (companion page).
09 - Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
Which sectors supplied Tanzania's net dollar inflow in the week to 16 October 2026?
Mining (net USD 57.36 million) and agriculture (net USD 52.47 million) supplied USD 109.83 million, 90.5% of banks' total net dollar purchases of USD 121.35 million. Transport and communication (USD 23.77 million) and tourism (USD 22.74 million) were the next largest net suppliers.
How much foreign exchange does the oil and energy sector buy from banks?
Oil and energy bought USD 57.06 million from banks and sold USD 7.73 million to them in the week to 16 October 2026, a net need of USD 49.33 million (USD 58.56 million the week before). That is 23.6% of all dollars sold by banks and about 2.5 times the whole weekly interbank FX market.
Do mining and agriculture dollars cover the oil bill?
Yes in the latest week: mining and agriculture net inflows were 2.2 times oil's net need. The week before the cover was only 1.25 times, so the cushion changes quickly.
How much would mining and agriculture inflows have to fall to cause a net dollar deficit?
On the latest week's numbers, a 55% fall would wipe out the cushion over oil if oil demand were unchanged, or 46% if oil demand rose 20%. On the previous week's numbers, a fall of only 20% would be enough. These are arithmetic stress tests, not forecasts.
How does oil dollar demand affect economic growth day to day?
Through the exchange rate, import and transport costs, production costs for import-dependent sectors, and dollar debt service. The oil sector alone bought about USD 11.4 million a weekday from banks in the latest week, worth about TZS 30 billion a day, so each 1% depreciation adds about TZS 1.5 billion a week to that bill.
What should investors and lenders watch?
Weekly sector net flows from the Bank of Tanzania, the cover ratio of mining and agriculture inflows over oil needs, the interbank FX volume, and whether trade flows keep swinging, since trade drove 54% of the latest week's USD 185 million swing in net flows.
What does the Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review show on fuel, prices and growth?
For the year to August 2026, petroleum imports rose 51.7% to USD 3,425.6 million and the current account deficit widened 45.9% to USD 2,481.8 million. Transport inflation is 13.8% against 1.4% a year earlier, energy and utilities inflation is 8.5%, and headline inflation is 4.3%, within the 3-5% target. Real GDP growth was 5.9% in 2025 (provisional); 2026 growth data are not yet published in the Review.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Madini na kilimo vinaleta dola, mafuta yanazitumia. Kwa mujibu wa Ripoti ya Wiki ya Masoko ya Fedha ya Ndani ya Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (BoT) ya wiki ya 12-16 Oktoba 2026, benki zilinunua dola milioni 121.35 zaidi ya zilizouza. Asilimia 90.5 ya ziada hiyo ilitoka sekta mbili: madini (dola milioni 57.36) na kilimo (milioni 52.47). Sekta ya mafuta na nishati ilihitaji dola milioni 49.33 kwa ujumla (ilinunua milioni 57.06, ikauza milioni 7.73), na ndiyo mnunuzi mkubwa zaidi.
Kinga ya sasa: Dola za madini na kilimo ni mara 2.2 ya mahitaji ya mafuta. Wiki iliyotangulia ilikuwa mara 1.25 tu (milioni 72.99 dhidi ya 58.56). Kinga inabadilika haraka.
Kiwango na mshtuko: Madini na kilimo vinaeleza kiwango cha ziada, lakini biashara ilieleza asilimia 54 ya mabadiliko ya dola milioni 185.29 ya wiki moja: kutoka upungufu wa milioni 86.10 hadi ziada ya milioni 13.84.
Gharama ya kila siku: Sekta ya mafuta ilinunua takriban dola milioni 11.4 kwa siku ya kazi, sawa na TZS bilioni 30. Kila shilingi ikidhoofika asilimia 1, gharama ya dola hizo huongezeka TZS bilioni 1.5 kwa wiki (takriban bilioni 78 kwa mwaka kama hali hiyo ikiendelea).
Athari kwa ukuaji (kwa mujibu wa Mapitio ya Uchumi ya Mwezi Septemba 2026): Uagizaji wa mafuta ulipanda asilimia 51.7 hadi dola milioni 3,425.6 kwa mwaka hadi Agosti 2026, nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa iliongezeka asilimia 45.9 hadi dola milioni 2,481.8, na mfumuko wa bei wa usafirishaji ni asilimia 13.8 ikilinganishwa na asilimia 1.4 mwaka mmoja uliopita. Mfumuko wa jumla ni asilimia 4.3, ndani ya lengo la asilimia 3 hadi 5. Ukuaji halisi wa 2025 ulikuwa asilimia 5.9 (awali); takwimu za ukuaji wa 2026 bado hazijachapishwa. Kwa upande mwingine, mauzo ya dhahabu yalipanda asilimia 30.2 hadi dola milioni 5,625.0, na akiba ya fedha za kigeni ni dola milioni 5,888.2 (miezi 4.2 ya uagizaji).
Jaribio la mshtuko: Kwa takwimu za wiki ya hivi karibuni, dola za madini na kilimo zingepaswa kushuka asilimia 55 ndipo kinga ya mafuta iishe (asilimia 46 mahitaji ya mafuta yakipanda asilimia 20). Kwa takwimu za wiki iliyotangulia, kushuka kwa asilimia 20 tu kungetosha. Hizi ni hesabu za mfano, si utabiri.
Mapendekezo: (1) Kufuatilia uwiano wa kinga kila wiki; (2) kuchapisha mtiririko wa dola kwa bidhaa (dhahabu, mazao, mafuta); (3) kulainisha malipo ya mafuta kwa ratiba na ununuzi wa pamoja; (4) kuongeza thamani ya madini na mazao ndani ya nchi na kukuza mauzo ya huduma; (5) bidhaa za kujikinga (hedging) kwa waagizaji na wakopaji wa dola; (6) kupanua soko la dola la benki kwa benki. TICGL/TERI hutoa upembuzi yakinifu (feasibility), ushauri wa kuingia sokoni na utafiti wa soko.
Hitimisho: Shilingi imara ya wiki hii inalindwa na dola za sekta mbili, na mafuta ndiyo yanayozitumia zaidi. Hilo linafanya kazi mradi mtiririko unaendelea. Kazi ni kuweka kinga nene, kufanya gharama ya mafuta itabirike, na kuongeza vyanzo vya dola.
- Madini na kilimo: dola milioni 109.83 · asilimia 90.5 ya ziada
- Mafuta na nishati: dola milioni 49.33 · asilimia 23.6 ya mauzo ya benki
- Uwiano wa kinga: 2.2 (wiki iliyotangulia 1.25) · mahali pa kuvunjika: kushuka asilimia 55 (20)
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Ripoti ya Wiki ya Masoko ya Fedha ya Ndani (12-16 Oktoba 2026); TERI/TICGL, Oktoba 2026. Kwa maelezo zaidi: economist@ticgl.com.