The debt structure suggests Tanzania is actively investing in its economic development, with a focus on infrastructure and social sectors. However, the reliance on external debt and exposure to currency risk are areas that require careful management to ensure sustainable economic growth.

External debt

As of July 2024, Tanzania's total external debt stock amounted to $29,685.1 million, with disbursed outstanding debt at $29,184.8 million and undisbursed debt at $4,572.0 million. The disbursed debt was mainly owed to multilateral creditors ($17,046.3 million), followed by commercial debt ($10,095.8 million), and bilateral creditors ($1,123.8 million). The central government accounted for the largest share of borrowing ($24,441.9 million), while the private sector borrowed $4,739.1 million. The debt was primarily denominated in US Dollars (66.8%), Euros (17%), and Chinese Yuan (6.4%). Major debt-funded sectors included transport and telecommunications ($7,553.5 million), social welfare and education ($6,969.5 million), and energy and mining ($2,846.9 million). Additionally, external debt arrears totaled $1,617.3 million.

As of July 2024:

• Total external debt stock: $29,685.1 million
• Disbursed outstanding debt: $29,184.8 million
• Undisbursed debt: $4,572.0 million

Breakdown of disbursed external debt by creditor category:

• Bilateral debt: $1,123.8 million
• Multilateral debt: $17,046.3 million
• Commercial debt: $10,095.8 million
• Export credits: $918.9 million

Breakdown by borrower category:

• Central government: $24,441.9 million
• Public corporations: $3.8 million
• Private sector: $4,739.1 million

Main currencies:

• US Dollar: $19,491.5 million (66.8% of total)
• Euro: $4,947.1 million (17.0%)
• Chinese Yuan: $1,855.6 million (6.4%)

Major uses of external debt funds:

• Transport and telecommunication: $7,553.5 million
• Social welfare and education: $6,969.5 million
• Balance of payments and budget support: $5,397.8 million
• Energy and mining: $2,846.9 million

External debt arrears totaled $1,617.3 million as of July 2024.

Domestic debt

As of July 2024, Tanzania's total domestic debt stood at 32,465.1 billion Tanzania shillings. This debt was primarily composed of government securities amounting to 27,220.5 billion TZS (83.8% of the total), including 2,128.9 billion TZS in Treasury bills and 24,904.5 billion TZS in Treasury bonds. Non-securitized debt accounted for 5,244.6 billion TZS (16.2%), with the bulk being an overdraft of 5,226.2 billion TZS. The main holders of this debt were commercial banks (30.2%), the Bank of Tanzania (22.1%), pension funds (27.0%), and insurance companies (5.7%).

As of July 2024:

• Total domestic debt stock: 32,465.1 billion Tanzania shillings

Breakdown by borrowing instruments:

• Government securities: 27,220.5 billion TZS (83.8% of total)
  • Treasury bills: 2,128.9 billion TZS
  • Treasury bonds: 24,904.5 billion TZS
• Non-securitized debt: 5,244.6 billion TZS (16.2% of total)
  • Overdraft: 5,226.2 billion TZS

Main holders of domestic debt:

• Commercial banks: 9,796.5 billion TZS (30.2%)
• Bank of Tanzania: 7,186.3 billion TZS (22.1%)
• Pension funds: 8,780.4 billion TZS (27.0%)
• Insurance companies: 1,853.2 billion TZS (5.7%)

Total national debt

As of July 2024, Tanzania's total national debt stock (external + domestic) stood at $41,844.1 million.

The figures shows that multilateral institutions are the largest creditors for Tanzania's external debt, while the central government is the primary borrower. For domestic debt, government securities, particularly Treasury bonds, make up the majority of the debt stock, with commercial banks and pension funds being the main holders:

1. Infrastructure and social development focus: The largest portions of external debt are allocated to transport and telecommunication ($7,553.5 million) and social welfare and education ($6,969.5 million). This suggests Tanzania is investing heavily in infrastructure and human capital, which are crucial for long-term economic development.
2. Reliance on external financing: With a total external debt of $29,685.1 million compared to a domestic debt of about $12,159.0 million (converted from TZS), Tanzania appears to rely significantly on external financing for its development projects. This could indicate limited domestic savings or a need for foreign expertise and technology.
3. Multilateral support: The largest share of external debt is from multilateral institutions ($17,046.3 million). This suggests Tanzania has good relationships with international financial institutions, which often provide loans at concessional rates and with development-oriented conditions.
4. Increasing commercial borrowing: Commercial debt accounts for a significant portion of external debt ($10,095.8 million), indicating Tanzania's growing access to international capital markets. This can be seen as a sign of increasing economic credibility, but also potentially higher borrowing costs.
5. Currency risk: With 66.8% of external debt denominated in US dollars, Tanzania faces significant currency risk. Any depreciation of the Tanzania shilling against the dollar could increase the debt burden.
6. Domestic market development: The substantial domestic debt, particularly in government securities, suggests a developing local financial market. This is positive for economic development as it provides alternative financing sources and investment opportunities.
7. Balance of payments support: A significant portion of external debt ($5,397.8 million) is for balance of payments and budget support, indicating some macroeconomic challenges that require external assistance.
8. Private sector involvement: Private sector external debt of $4,739.1 million suggests some level of private sector engagement in international borrowing, which could be positive for economic growth if invested productively.
9. Debt sustainability concerns: The total national debt of $41,844.1 million is substantial. While not necessarily problematic on its own, it's important to monitor this in relation to GDP growth and export earnings to ensure long-term sustainability.
10. Investment in energy and mining: Significant debt allocation to energy and mining ($2,846.9 million) indicates efforts to develop these sectors, which could be crucial for future economic growth and export earnings.

The depreciation of the Tanzania shilling (TZS) is a key factor that can have significant impacts on the country's economic development. Focus on the causes, effects, and implications of the shilling’s depreciation.

1. Depreciation Figures

• Exchange Rate in July 2024: The Tanzania shilling traded at an average of TZS 2,663.76 per USD in July 2024.
• Exchange Rate in June 2024: In the preceding month (June 2024), the shilling traded at TZS 2,626.07 per USD.
• Annual Depreciation: Over the past 12 months, the shilling depreciated by 12.6% against the USD.

2. Factors Contributing to Depreciation

• Trade Imbalances: Tanzania’s import costs (e.g., for fuel, machinery, fertilizers, and other goods) may be higher than its export revenues, creating a trade imbalance that weakens the currency.
• Inflationary Pressures: The increasing yields on government securities (like the rise in Treasury bills from 6.75% in June to 8.81% in July 2024) suggest inflationary pressure in the economy, which typically leads to currency depreciation.
• Global Market Conditions: Depreciation can be influenced by international factors such as the strength of the US dollar, rising global interest rates, and fluctuations in the prices of key commodities like oil and gold. Since Tanzania imports several essential goods, a stronger USD makes imports more expensive, further straining the shilling.

3. Effects of Depreciation

• Increased Cost of Imports: The depreciation of the shilling makes imported goods more expensive. For example, the cost of importing fuel, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and food items like sugar and edible oil would increase as the value of the shilling falls.
• Example: If the exchange rate was TZS 2,626.07 per USD in June 2024, a USD 100,000 import would cost TZS 262.6 million. By July 2024, at TZS 2,663.76 per USD, the same USD 100,000 import would cost TZS 266.3 million. This represents an additional cost of TZS 3.7 million due to the shilling’s depreciation.
• Higher Inflation: The increased cost of imports, especially for essential goods like fuel and food, can contribute to inflation. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of consumers, reducing their ability to afford goods and services.
• Increased Debt Servicing Costs: For Tanzania’s external debts (those denominated in foreign currencies like the USD), a depreciating shilling means it takes more local currency to service those debts. This increases the debt burden, which could limit the government's ability to invest in infrastructure and other development projects.

4. Benefits of Depreciation

• Boost to Exports: A weaker shilling can make Tanzania exports more competitive in global markets, as Tanzania goods become cheaper for foreign buyers. Sectors like mining (especially gold), agriculture (cash crops like coffee, tobacco, cotton), and tourism stand to benefit.
  • Example: If a Tanzania exporter sells goods worth USD 1 million, the exchange rate in June 2024 would yield TZS 2.626 billion. In July 2024, the same USD 1 million export would yield TZS 2.663 billion—a gain of TZS 37 million due to the weaker shilling.
• Foreign Investment Inflows: A weaker currency can attract foreign direct investment (FDI) as foreign investors can get more value for their money in Tanzania. This could lead to more investments in sectors like manufacturing, infrastructure, and services.

5. Government Measures and Future Expectations

• Gold Exports and Reserves: Tanzania is leveraging its gold exports to generate foreign exchange. The Bank of Tanzania’s domestic gold purchase program aims to increase the country’s foreign reserves, which can help stabilize the shilling.
• Tourism: Seasonal improvements in tourism inflows, especially in July 2024, have provided foreign exchange earnings, which can help offset some of the depreciation pressures.
• Reduction in Imports: The government is focusing on reducing imports of fertilizer, edible oil, and sugar, which could reduce demand for foreign currency and help ease the depreciation of the shilling.

6. Long-term Implications

• Sustained Depreciation: If the depreciation trend continues, Tanzania may face challenges such as:
  • Increased inflation, especially for imported goods.
  • Greater burden on servicing foreign debt.
  • Pressure on domestic consumers due to rising costs.
• Economic Growth: On the positive side, depreciation could stimulate sectors like exports and tourism, driving economic growth and improving the current account balance in the long term.

Summary of Key Figures:

While the depreciation of the Tanzania shilling presents challenges such as higher import costs and inflation, it also offers opportunities for boosting exports and attracting foreign investment. Balancing these effects will be crucial for supporting Tanzania's long-term economic development.

• Current Exchange Rate (July 2024): TZS 2,663.76 per USD.
• Previous Exchange Rate (June 2024): TZS 2,626.07 per USD.
• Annual Depreciation: 12.6% against the USD.

Kushuka kwa thamani ya shilingi ya Tanzania (TZS) ni jambo muhimu linaloweza kuwa na athari kubwa kwenye maendeleo ya uchumi wa nchi. Hii inahusisha kuangalia sababu, athari, na athari za kushuka kwa thamani ya shilingi.

Takwimu za Kushuka Kwa Thamani

• Kiwango cha kubadilisha fedha Julai 2024: Shilingi ya Tanzania ilikuwa inabadilishwa kwa wastani wa TZS 2,663.76 kwa dola moja ya Marekani (USD).
• Kiwango cha kubadilisha fedha Juni 2024: Mwezi uliopita, shilingi ilikuwa inabadilishwa kwa TZS 2,626.07 kwa USD.
• Kushuka kwa mwaka: Katika kipindi cha miezi 12 iliyopita, shilingi imeshuka kwa 12.6% dhidi ya USD.
  

Sababu Zinazochangia Kushuka kwa Thamani

• Uwiano wa Biashara: Gharama za kuagiza bidhaa kama mafuta, mashine, mbolea, na bidhaa nyingine zinaweza kuwa juu kuliko mapato ya mauzo ya nje, na hivyo kusababisha hali ya upungufu wa biashara ambao unadhoofisha shilingi.
• Msondo wa Bei (Inflation): Kuongezeka kwa riba kwenye dhamana za serikali (kama vile kuongezeka kwa hati za hazina kutoka 6.75% Juni hadi 8.81% Julai 2024) kunapendekeza kuwepo kwa msongo wa bei, hali inayoweza kusababisha kushuka kwa thamani ya sarafu.
• Hali ya Soko la Kimataifa: Kushuka kwa thamani kunaweza kuathiriwa na nguvu ya USD, ongezeko la riba za kimataifa, na mabadiliko ya bei ya bidhaa muhimu kama mafuta na dhahabu. Kwa kuwa Tanzania inaagiza bidhaa nyingi muhimu, USD yenye nguvu zaidi hufanya uagizaji kuwa ghali zaidi, hivyo kuendelea kudhoofisha shilingi.
  

Athari za Kushuka kwa Thamani

• Kuongezeka kwa Gharama za Uagizaji: Kushuka kwa shilingi kunafanya bidhaa za nje kuwa ghali zaidi. Kwa mfano, gharama za kuagiza mafuta, mashine, dawa, na vyakula kama sukari na mafuta ya kupikia zitaongezeka kadri shilingi inavyozidi kudhoofika.
  • Mfano: Ikiwa kiwango cha kubadilisha fedha kilikuwa TZS 2,626.07 kwa USD mwezi Juni 2024, uagizaji wa USD 100,000 ungekugharimu TZS 262.6 milioni. Kufikia Julai 2024, kwa TZS 2,663.76 kwa USD, uagizaji huo huo ungekugharimu TZS 266.3 milioni, ongezeko la TZS 3.7 milioni kutokana na kushuka kwa shilingi.

• Msondo wa Bei: Kuongezeka kwa gharama za uagizaji, hasa kwa bidhaa muhimu kama mafuta na chakula, kunaweza kuchangia msongo wa bei (inflation). Hali hii inapunguza uwezo wa watumiaji wa kununua bidhaa na huduma.
• Kuongezeka kwa Gharama za Kulipa Madeni: Kwa madeni ya nje ya Tanzania (yale yanayolipwa kwa sarafu za kigeni kama USD), kushuka kwa shilingi kunamaanisha kuwa inahitaji fedha nyingi za ndani kulipia madeni hayo. Hii inaongeza mzigo wa deni, ambao unaweza kupunguza uwezo wa serikali kuwekeza katika miradi ya maendeleo kama miundombinu.
  

Faida za Kushuka kwa Thamani

• Kuimarika kwa Biashara za Nje: Shilingi dhaifu inaweza kufanya bidhaa za Tanzania kuwa za ushindani zaidi kwenye masoko ya kimataifa, kwa kuwa bidhaa za Tanzania zinakuwa za bei nafuu kwa wanunuzi wa nje. Sekta kama madini (hasa dhahabu), kilimo (mazao ya biashara kama kahawa, tumbaku, pamba), na utalii zinaweza kufaidika.
  • Mfano: Ikiwa mzalishaji wa Tanzania anauza bidhaa zenye thamani ya USD milioni 1, kiwango cha kubadilisha fedha mwezi Juni 2024 kingetoa TZS 2.626 bilioni. Julai 2024, mauzo hayo ya USD milioni 1 yangezaa TZS 2.663 bilioni—ongezeko la TZS milioni 37 kutokana na kudhoofika kwa shilingi.
    
• Uwekezaji wa Kigeni: Shilingi dhaifu inaweza kuvutia uwekezaji wa moja kwa moja kutoka nje (FDI), kwani wawekezaji wa kigeni wanaweza kupata thamani zaidi ya fedha zao nchini Tanzania. Hii inaweza kusababisha uwekezaji zaidi kwenye sekta kama viwanda, miundombinu, na huduma.

Hatua za Serikali na Matarajio ya Baadaye

• Mauzo ya Dhahabu na Akiba: Tanzania inatumia mauzo ya dhahabu kuzalisha fedha za kigeni. Mpango wa Benki Kuu ya Tanzania kununua dhahabu nchini unalenga kuongeza akiba ya kigeni, jambo ambalo linaweza kusaidia kuimarisha shilingi.
• Utalii: Kuongezeka kwa mapato kutoka sekta ya utalii, hasa Julai 2024, kumetoa mapato ya fedha za kigeni, jambo linaloweza kusaidia kupunguza shinikizo la kushuka kwa shilingi.
• Kupunguza Uagizaji: Serikali inazingatia kupunguza uagizaji wa bidhaa kama mbolea, mafuta ya kupikia, na sukari, hali inayoweza kupunguza mahitaji ya fedha za kigeni na kusaidia kupunguza kushuka kwa shilingi.
  

Athari za Muda Mrefu

Kushuka Kwa Muda Mrefu: Ikiwa hali hii itaendelea, Tanzania inaweza kukumbana na changamoto kama:

• Kuongezeka kwa msongo wa bei, hasa kwa bidhaa zinazoagizwa.
• Kuongezeka kwa mzigo wa kulipa madeni ya kigeni.
• Shinikizo kwa watumiaji wa ndani kutokana na kupanda kwa gharama.
• Ukuaji wa Uchumi: Kwa upande mwingine, kushuka kwa thamani kunaweza kuchochea sekta kama biashara za nje na utalii, na hivyo kuchangia ukuaji wa uchumi na kuboresha uwiano wa malipo kwa muda mrefu.

Muhtasari wa Takwimu Muhimu: Wakati kushuka kwa shilingi ya Tanzania kunaleta changamoto kama gharama za juu za uagizaji na msongo wa bei, pia kunatoa fursa za kuongeza biashara za nje na kuvutia uwekezaji wa kigeni. Kuweka usawa kati ya athari hizi kutakuwa muhimu kwa kuunga mkono maendeleo ya uchumi wa muda mrefu wa Tanzania.

• Kiwango cha sasa cha kubadilisha fedha (Julai 2024): TZS 2,663.76 kwa USD.
• Kiwango cha awali cha kubadilisha fedha (Juni 2024): TZS 2,626.07 kwa USD.
• Kushuka kwa mwaka: 12.6% dhidi ya USD.
  

Hitimisho

Kushuka kwa thamani ya shilingi ya Tanzania kuna athari nyingi kwa uchumi. Ingawa kunaongeza gharama za uagizaji na kusababisha msongo wa bei, pia kunaweza kuimarisha ushindani wa bidhaa za Tanzania kimataifa na kuvutia uwekezaji wa kigeni. Serikali inachukua hatua kama kuongeza mauzo ya dhahabu na kupunguza uagizaji ili kudhibiti hali hii. Athari za muda mrefu zinategemea usimamizi mzuri wa changamoto na fursa zinazoambatana na kushuka kwa thamani ya shilingi. Mwisho, usawa kati ya athari hasi na chanya utakuwa muhimu kwa maendeleo ya uchumi wa Tanzania.

The Government Securities Market plays a key role in Tanzania’s economic development by providing a mechanism for the government to raise funds for public spending and investment projects, such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare.

The government securities market in Tanzania is providing essential capital for government operations and development projects. The shift towards longer-term bonds with high yields reflects investor confidence in the economy's long-term stability, despite inflationary pressures and the depreciating shilling. However, the rising borrowing costs could pose challenges for the government’s ability to finance projects without increasing debt servicing burdens. Ultimately, the performance of the government securities market plays a crucial role in shaping Tanzania’s economic development trajectory.

1. Treasury Bills Auctions (July 2024)

• Total Tender Size: The government offered a combined tender of TZS 253.3 billion.
  • These funds were primarily aimed at government financing (to support the national budget and development projects) with a small portion used for price discovery (helping determine the true market interest rate).
• Bids Received: The total bids from investors amounted to TZS 198.2 billion.
  • Figure Explanation: The bids were less than the tender size, indicating that the demand for Treasury bills was lower than the supply, possibly reflecting investor preferences for higher-yield, longer-term instruments (such as Treasury bonds).
• Successful Bids: Out of the TZS 198.2 billion bid, TZS 102.9 billion were successful.
  • Success Rate: This means approximately 51.9% of the bids were accepted by the Bank of Tanzania, leaving about 48.1% of the bids unsuccessful.
• Weighted Average Yield (July 2024): The yield on Treasury bills increased to 8.81% in July, compared to 6.75% in June 2024.
  • Implication: The rising yield indicates that the government is paying a higher interest rate to attract investors, reflecting increased borrowing costs, possibly due to inflationary pressures or higher demand for funds.

2. Treasury Bonds Auctions (July 2024)

• Total Bids Received: Investors placed bids totaling TZS 674.7 billion in the auction of long-term Treasury bonds.
  • Significance: The high volume of bids shows strong investor interest in longer-term, higher-yield government securities, which are seen as safer investments with good returns over time.
• Successful Bids: Out of the total bids, TZS 628.8 billion were accepted.
  • Success Rate: Approximately 93.2% of the bids were accepted, a much higher success rate compared to the Treasury bills auction. This reflects the stronger demand for longer-term bonds.
• Yields on Long-Term Bonds:
  • 15-Year Treasury Bond Yield: 15.05%.
  • 20-Year Treasury Bond Yield: 15.17%.
  • Explanation: These yields are significantly higher than short-term Treasury bills, reflecting the risk premium investors require for locking their funds for longer periods. This also suggests that investors are confident in the government’s ability to meet long-term obligations, and they expect economic stability over the bond's maturity.

3. Performance Trends and Implications

• Shift to Long-Term Investments: Investors prefer long-term bonds (with 15-year and 20-year maturities) over short-term Treasury bills, likely due to the higher yields they offer.
  • Example: Investors can earn a yield of 15.17% on a 20-year bond, compared to just 8.81% on short-term Treasury bills. This reflects investors’ desire for greater returns in an environment where inflation or currency depreciation may erode the value of short-term investments.
• Government Borrowing Costs:
  • The rise in yields, especially on Treasury bills (from 6.75% in June to 8.81% in July 2024), suggests that the government is facing higher borrowing costs. This could be due to rising inflation, increased demand for liquidity, or a higher level of public debt.
  • For long-term bonds, yields of 15.05% and 15.17% reflect the higher risk premium investors require to hold Tanzanian debt for 15 or 20 years.
• Government Financing: By raising TZS 102.9 billion in Treasury bills and TZS 628.8 billion in Treasury bonds, the government has access to nearly TZS 731.7 billion in total from the securities market in July 2024.
  • Significance: This capital is crucial for financing key development projects like infrastructure, healthcare, and education, which are essential for Tanzania’s long-term economic growth.

4. Implications for Economic Development

• Financing Development Projects: The funds raised through government securities are used to finance essential public services and infrastructure projects. This borrowing helps the government invest in areas that directly contribute to economic growth, such as roads, energy, water systems, and social services.
• Crowding Out Private Investment: High government borrowing and rising yields might discourage private sector borrowing by increasing interest rates across the board. This phenomenon is known as crowding out, where the private sector finds it more expensive to access capital due to higher yields on government debt, which competes for funds in the financial market.
• Attracting Domestic and Foreign Investors: The high yields on government bonds (15.05% and 15.17%) can attract both local and foreign investors. Foreign investors, in particular, might see Tanzania as a lucrative investment opportunity due to the high returns, especially when global interest rates are lower.
• Risk of Inflation and Debt Servicing: Rising yields can signal inflationary pressures, which may result from government borrowing or increased money supply. Additionally, the government’s higher borrowing costs mean more budget resources will be used for debt servicing (paying interest on debt), leaving fewer funds for development.

5. Summary of Key Figures:

• Treasury Bills Auction:
  • Tender Size: TZS 253.3 billion.
  • Bids Received: TZS 198.2 billion.
  • Successful Bids: TZS 102.9 billion.
  • Weighted Average Yield: 8.81% in July, up from 6.75% in June.
• Treasury Bonds Auction:
  • Total Bids: TZS 674.7 billion.
  • Successful Bids: TZS 628.8 billion.
  • Yields: 15.05% (15-year bond) and 15.17% (20-year bond).
• Total Government Borrowing (July 2024): TZS 731.7 billion from Treasury bills and bonds combined.

1. Government Securities Market (July 2024)

• Treasury Bills Auctions:
  • Tender Size: TZS 253.3 billion
  • Total Bids Received: TZS 198.2 billion
  • Successful Bids: TZS 102.9 billion
  • Weighted Average Yield: Increased from 6.75% in June 2024 to 8.81% in July 2024.
• Treasury Bonds:
  • Total Bids Received: TZS 674.7 billion
  • Successful Bids: TZS 628.8 billion
  • 15-Year Treasury Bond Yield to Maturity: 15.05%
  • 20-Year Treasury Bond Yield to Maturity: 15.17%

2. Interbank Cash Market (IBCM)

• Total Transactions (July 2024): TZS 2,375.4 billion, a sharp increase from TZS 1,277.6 billion in June 2024.
• 7-Day Transactions: Accounted for 33.3% of total market turnover.
• Overnight Transactions: Increased to 32.6% of total market activity.
• IBCM Interest Rate: Slight decrease to 7.24% from 7.36% in June 2024.

3. Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM)

• Transactions in IFEM (July 2024): USD 15.3 million, up from USD 9.3 million in June 2024.
• Net Sale of Foreign Exchange by the Bank: USD 2.5 million.
• Average Exchange Rate (July 2024): TZS 2,663.76 per USD, compared to TZS 2,626.07 in June 2024.
• Annual Shilling Depreciation: 12.6% against the USD.

4. Foreign Exchange Earnings and Exports

• Major Contributors:
  • Gold Exports remained the largest contributor.
  • Increased foreign exchange from tourism (seasonal) and crop exports.
• Imports declined, contributing to the improved current account balance.

5. Expectations Moving Forward

• Foreign exchange inflows are expected to rise due to:
  • High gold prices in the global market.
  • Tourism growth, thanks to promotion measures.
  • Exports of cash crops (cashew nut, tobacco, coffee, cotton) and food crops (maize, rice).
• Foreign exchange demand will decrease, driven by:
  • Lower imports of fertilizer, edible oil, and sugar.
  • A domestic payments policy requiring settlements in shillings.

Summary of Key Figures:

• Treasury Bills Auction Success: TZS 102.9 billion at 8.81% yield.
• Treasury Bonds: 15.05% - 15.17% yield to maturity.
• IBCM Transactions: TZS 2,375.4 billion.
• IFEM Transactions: USD 15.3 million with an exchange rate of TZS 2,663.76 per USD.

Focusing on Tanzania’s economic development, trends and implications

Tanzania's financial markets are supporting its economic development by attracting investment, facilitating liquidity in the banking system, and improving foreign exchange inflows. However, careful management of inflation, liquidity, and exchange rate stability will be necessary to maintain momentum in economic growth.

1. Government Securities Market

• Increased Interest in Long-Term Bonds: Investors are showing more interest in long-term instruments like the 15-year and 20-year Treasury bonds, which have high yields (15.05% and 15.17%, respectively). This suggests confidence in the long-term stability of Tanzania’s economy.
• Rising Yields on Treasury Bills: The increase in the weighted average yield for Treasury bills (from 6.75% to 8.81%) reflects rising costs for government borrowing, indicating possible inflationary pressures or an increased need for financing.
• Implication for Economic Development: High yields on government securities can attract both domestic and foreign investors, providing the government with necessary funds for infrastructure, public services, and other development projects.

2. Interbank Cash Market (IBCM)

• Substantial Increase in Transactions: The large rise in interbank cash transactions (from TZS 1,277.6 billion in June to TZS 2,375.4 billion in July) shows increased liquidity and activity in the banking sector. This is essential for ensuring that banks have adequate resources to lend to businesses and consumers, which supports economic activity.
• Shift to Shorter-Term Transactions: The increase in overnight transactions (32.6% of total market activity) points to banks managing short-term liquidity more conservatively due to recent liquidity constraints. This signals temporary pressures in the financial system that could slow lending.
• Implication for Economic Development: Improved liquidity management by banks can support business operations and consumption, but liquidity constraints may need addressing to prevent limiting economic growth.

3. Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM)

• Increased Foreign Exchange Transactions: The rise in foreign exchange transactions (from USD 9.3 million in June to USD 15.3 million in July) reflects a boost from tourism, gold exports, and crop exports. The seasonal uptick in tourism and strong gold exports are important contributors to foreign exchange earnings.
• Stable but Depreciating Shilling: The steady depreciation of the shilling (by 12.6% annually) suggests some pressure on Tanzania’s external accounts, but not severe misalignment in the exchange rate. A weaker currency can help exports but might increase the cost of imports, particularly essential goods.
• Implication for Economic Development: Increased foreign exchange earnings from exports, especially from tourism and mining, can strengthen Tanzania's external position and boost reserves. However, the shilling’s depreciation could lead to higher import costs, affecting inflation and consumption.

4. Future Expectations

• Growing Foreign Exchange Inflows: The forecasted rise in foreign exchange from mining, tourism, and agriculture (cash crops like cashew nuts, tobacco, and coffee) highlights sectors critical to Tanzania’s economic growth.
• Lower Import Costs: Reducing imports of fertilizer, edible oil, and sugar, along with policies promoting the use of the shilling for domestic payments, will ease pressure on the foreign exchange market, improving the balance of payments and making more resources available for development.
• Foreign Investment: A stable macroeconomic environment is expected to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI), especially in mining, agriculture, and infrastructure. Increased FDI is vital for creating jobs and accelerating industrial growth in Tanzania.

Overall Implications for Economic Development

• Investment in Infrastructure and Development Projects: The government can use funds from Treasury bonds to finance long-term projects, boosting infrastructure and public services.
• Increased Export Revenues: The strength of gold and agricultural exports provides a steady source of foreign exchange, supporting national development plans.
• Challenges from Inflation and Currency Depreciation: The rising yields on government securities and depreciation of the shilling could signal inflationary pressures that may impact purchasing power and import costs.
• Support from Foreign Direct Investment: Continued FDI inflows are essential for diversifying the economy and achieving sustainable development goals.

Key economic indicators from the Monthly Economic Review by the Bank of Tanzania (August 2024), which provide insight into Tanzania's economic development

These indicators reflect Tanzania’s efforts toward fiscal consolidation, reduced reliance on external debt, and a stable macroeconomic environment conducive to investment and export growth.

1. GDP Growth: Tanzania's economy grew by 5.6% in the first quarter of 2024, up from 5.0% in the same period in 2023. This growth is largely attributed to sectors such as construction, agriculture, and financial services​.
2. Inflation: Tanzania's inflation remains low and stable. The headline inflation rate in July 2024 was 3.0%, a slight decrease from 3.1% in June. Food inflation saw a modest increase to 1.0%, while core inflation dropped to 3.3%​.
3. Monetary Policy: The private sector credit growth remained strong at 17.6% in July 2024, supporting economic activities like agriculture, which saw a 44.6% increase in credit​.
4. External Sector: Tanzania's exports of goods and services for the year ending in July 2024 totaled USD 14.67 billion, an increase from USD 13.03 billion in the previous year. Key exports include gold, horticultural products, and traditional goods like tobacco and cashew nuts​.
5. Foreign Reserves: The country’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 5.29 billion by the end of July 2024, covering 4.3 months of projected imports​.
6. Government Revenue: In June 2024, domestic revenue amounted to TZS 3,181.5 billion, achieving 96.6% of the monthly target. Tax revenue totaled TZS 2,527.8 billion, with income and import taxes surpassing expectations due to improved compliance and increased fuel imports​.
7. Public Expenditure: Total government expenditure in June 2024 was TZS 3,305.5 billion, with TZS 2,168 billion allocated for recurrent expenses (wages, salaries, and debt servicing), and TZS 1,137.5 billion directed towards development​.
8. Debt Developments: Tanzania’s national debt stood at USD 41.84 billion in July 2024, a slight decrease from the previous month. External debt, making up 70.9% of the total, was USD 29.68 billion, with multilateral institutions holding the largest share (57.5%)​.
9. External Sector (Current Account): The current account deficit narrowed to USD 2.50 billion for the year ending in July 2024, a significant improvement from USD 4.46 billion in the same period in 2023, driven by better export performance and reduced import values​.
10. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Continued improvement in foreign direct investment is expected due to the stable macroeconomic environment, with a focus on mining, tourism, and agricultural exports​.
11. Imports: Goods imports decreased slightly to USD 16.10 billion in the year ending July 2024 from USD 16.71 billion in the previous year. Major imports include refined petroleum products (USD 2.85 billion) and capital goods​.

The economic indicators from the Monthly Economic Review (August 2024) present a comprehensive picture of Tanzania's economic development

Tanzania's economic development is characterized by robust growth, low inflation, increasing exports, and a stable macroeconomic environment. The government’s efforts to ensure fiscal discipline, contain national debt, and attract FDI contribute to sustainable growth. These indicators point to a healthy, growing economy poised to leverage its natural resources, agricultural potential, and export diversification for future development.

1. Sustained Economic Growth:

• Tanzania’s GDP growth rate of 5.6% in the first quarter of 2024, up from 5.0% in 2023, highlights steady economic expansion. Growth has been driven by critical sectors such as construction, agriculture, and financial services, showcasing the government's investment in infrastructure, as well as the productivity of the agricultural sector—an essential pillar of the economy​.

2. Stable Inflation:

• Low inflation at 3.0% in July 2024 demonstrates effective management of inflationary pressures. This stability, aligned with the national target, indicates macroeconomic stability. Although food inflation saw a slight rise to 1.0%, the overall low inflation provides a favorable environment for both consumer spending and investment​.

3. Robust Private Sector Credit:

• Strong private sector credit growth of 17.6% in July 2024, especially the 44.6% increase in agricultural lending, underscores the role of credit in fueling economic activity. This is essential for sectors like agriculture, which contribute to rural development, poverty reduction, and economic diversification​.

4. Impressive Export Performance:

• Exports reached USD 14.67 billion in the year ending July 2024, with key commodities like gold, horticultural products, tobacco, and cashew nuts driving the increase. The growth in non-traditional exports reflects the diversification of the export base, and strong export performance helps improve the balance of payments​.

5. Healthy Foreign Reserves:

• Tanzania’s foreign exchange reserves of USD 5.29 billion, covering 4.3 months of imports, reflect sound management of external finances. These reserves provide a buffer against external shocks, maintaining investor confidence and ensuring currency stability​.

6. Revenue Generation and Fiscal Discipline:

• Domestic revenue collection reached TZS 3,181.5 billion in June 2024, demonstrating improved tax compliance and effective fiscal management. With public expenditure balanced between recurrent and development spending, the government is managing its fiscal policies to sustain both growth and fiscal consolidation​.

7. Reduction in National Debt:

• Tanzania's national debt at USD 41.84 billion in July 2024, a slight decline from the previous month, suggests efforts to contain debt growth. The country is managing external debt prudently, with multilateral institutions holding the largest share (57.5%).

8. Narrowing Current Account Deficit:

• The current account deficit improved significantly to USD 2.50 billion in 2024 from USD 4.46 billion in 2023. This narrowing is due to improved export performance and reduced imports, reflecting more balanced external trade​.

9. Steady Foreign Direct Investment (FDI):

• Continued improvement in FDI points to growing investor confidence in Tanzania, supported by a stable macroeconomic environment. Sectors like mining, tourism, and agriculture are attracting more foreign capital, which is critical for long-term economic growth​.

10. Slight Decline in Imports:

• A decrease in goods imports to USD 16.10 billion in 2024, driven by lower import costs of refined petroleum products and other capital goods, suggests improved terms of trade and reduced reliance on external goods. This also aligns with efforts to promote domestic production and reduce trade imbalances​.

Tanzania's food crisis, driven by weather extremes and economic shocks, places it in a challenging position within East Africa and Africa. While not as severe as in some neighboring countries, the ongoing vulnerabilities necessitate continued attention to mitigate the impacts of food insecurity.

Tanzania's Position in East Africa

1. Acute Food Insecurity:
   • Tanzania has been repeatedly listed as a country facing food crises in the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) for six of the past eight years. The primary drivers of these crises include extreme weather conditions, pests, and economic shocks.
   • In 2023, around 1.1 million people, or 10% of the analyzed population in Tanzania, faced high levels of acute food insecurity during the lean season (October 2022 – February 2023). This figure is expected to slightly decrease to 0.9 million people, or 13% of the analyzed population, by early 2024.
2. Drivers of Food Insecurity:
   • Weather Extremes: Below-average rainfall during key growing periods, such as the February–May 2023 Masika growing period, coupled with prolonged dry spells and pest outbreaks, significantly impacted crop production. Up to 70% of cropland in certain areas was affected by drought.
   • Economic Shocks: High fertilizer costs and other economic pressures reduced agricultural yields. In March 2023, food inflation in Tanzania reached 9.7%, though it had decreased to 4.5% by October 2023.
3. Comparison with Other East African Countries:
   • Tanzania's food crisis situation is less severe than in some other East African nations. For example, Sudan had around 20.3 million people (42% of the population) facing high levels of acute food insecurity in 2023, largely driven by conflict.
   • Compared to other countries like South Sudan and Somalia, Tanzania's food insecurity levels are relatively moderate, though still concerning. South Sudan, for instance, had 63% of its population experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity in 2023.

Tanzania's Position in Africa

1. Regional Vulnerabilities:
   • Tanzania, like many other African nations, is highly susceptible to erratic weather patterns, such as droughts and floods, which severely disrupt agricultural practices and contribute to food scarcity. The country is among those with high vulnerability scores, indicating limited capacity to cope with disasters.
   • Despite these challenges, Tanzania has not reached the catastrophic levels of food insecurity seen in other parts of Africa, such as in regions affected by conflict like the Sudan and Somalia.
2. Agricultural and Economic Factors:
   • Agriculture is a critical sector in Tanzania, employing a significant portion of the population. However, economic shocks, including rising input costs and inflation, have constrained agricultural productivity and food access.

Tanzania's ongoing food crisis has several implications for its economic development

The ongoing food crises in Tanzania highlight significant challenges to economic development. Addressing these crises is crucial for enhancing agricultural productivity, stabilizing the economy, improving human capital, and attracting investment, all of which are essential for sustainable economic growth and development in the country.

Impact on Agricultural Productivity

• Agriculture as a Key Sector: Agriculture is a cornerstone of Tanzania's economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employing a large portion of the population. However, the recurrent food crises, driven by factors like drought, floods, and pests, severely impact agricultural productivity. When agricultural yields decline, it not only threatens food security but also reduces income for farmers, exacerbating poverty and limiting economic growth.
• Economic Shocks and Input Costs: The high costs of agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers, have been a significant barrier to productivity. These costs, combined with inflation, reduce farmers' ability to invest in their crops, leading to lower yields and a decline in overall agricultural output. This situation limits the potential for agricultural exports, a crucial source of foreign exchange for the country.

Inflation and Food Prices

• Rising Food Prices: The food crises contribute to rising food prices, which directly affect household purchasing power. As food prices increase, more households struggle to afford basic necessities, leading to higher rates of poverty and malnutrition. This, in turn, reduces the potential for a healthy and productive workforce, which is essential for sustained economic growth.
• Economic Stability: High inflation rates, particularly in food prices, can destabilize the economy by increasing the cost of living and reducing consumer spending. This inflationary pressure can lead to social unrest and increased demand for government intervention, straining public resources and potentially diverting funds from long-term developmental projects.

Human Capital Development

• Malnutrition and Workforce Productivity: Persistent food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly among children and women, have long-term implications for human capital development. Malnutrition can lead to stunted growth, reduced cognitive development, and increased susceptibility to disease, all of which impair the future productivity of the workforce.
• Education and Health: Food insecurity often forces households to prioritize immediate survival over long-term investments in education and health. This results in lower school attendance rates and poorer health outcomes, which undermine efforts to develop a skilled and healthy workforce capable of driving economic growth.

Investment and Economic Growth

• Attracting Investment: Persistent food crises can deter both domestic and foreign investment. Investors may perceive the ongoing food insecurity as a sign of broader economic instability, leading to reduced investment in key sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and services. This can slow down economic diversification and limit opportunities for job creation.
• Government Spending: The need to address food crises often requires significant government spending on emergency relief and social protection programs. This spending, while necessary, can strain public finances and reduce the funds available for infrastructure development, education, and other critical areas that are essential for long-term economic growth.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• Challenges in Meeting SDGs: Tanzania's food crisis poses challenges to achieving several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 1 (No Poverty), and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). The recurrent nature of food crises makes it difficult to make progress on these goals, potentially slowing down overall development.

The 2024 Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC)

1. Global Acute Food Insecurity:
   • In 2023, 281.6 million people (or 21.5% of the analyzed population) across 59 food-crisis countries/territories faced high levels of acute food insecurity.
   • This marks an increase of nearly 24 million people compared to 2022, mainly due to expanded analysis coverage and worsening conditions in certain countries.
2. People Facing Severe Food Crises:
   • Over 36 million people in 39 countries/territories were in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4), with more than a third in Sudan and Afghanistan.
   • Around 165.5 million people in 41 countries/territories faced Crisis (IPC/CH Phase 3).
   • 292 million people in 40 countries were in Stressed (IPC/CH Phase 2) conditions.
3. Primary Drivers:
   • Conflict and insecurity were the main drivers of acute food insecurity in 20 countries, affecting 135 million people.
   • Weather extremes were the primary cause in 18 countries, impacting over 72 million people.
   • Economic shocks were the main drivers in 21 countries, with more than 75 million people affected.
4. Outlook for 2024:
   • The situation is expected to remain dire, with conflicts in places like Gaza Strip, Sudan, and Haiti continuing to drive food insecurity.
   • The impacts of El Niño, particularly in East and Southern Africa, are likely to worsen the food crises in regions like Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
5. Catastrophic Food Insecurity (IPC/CH Phase 5):
   • 700,000 people were projected to face Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5) in 2023, with 600,000 of them in Gaza Strip.
   • By March–July 2024, over half the population of Gaza Strip (1.1 million people) is expected to be in Catastrophe, with the northern governorates facing imminent famine.

The 2024 Global Report on Food Crises with economic factors that significantly impact food security and economic development worldwide

These economic challenges illustrate how intertwined economic development is with food security, as external shocks, such as inflation, currency depreciation, and global economic slowdowns, can severely impact the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development and ensure food security for their populations.

1. Economic Shocks as a Primary Driver:
   • Economic shocks were the primary driver of acute food insecurity in 21 countries, affecting over 75.2 million people in 2023. This includes 12.1 million people in Emergency (IPC/CH Phase 4) conditions across 15 countries and 43,000 people facing Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5) in South Sudan​.
2. Global Economic Slowdown:
   • The global economic growth rate slowed from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.1% in 2023 due to higher central bank rates intended to curb inflation. Despite tighter monetary policies and lower commodity prices, inflation remained above pre-pandemic levels. This had significant implications for food-crisis countries, particularly those that are net food importers​.
3. Impact on Food-Crisis Countries:
   • Not all food-crisis countries benefited equally from lower international commodity prices. For countries dependent on primary commodity exports, lower export revenues exacerbated economic challenges. For net food-importing countries, the combination of higher borrowing costs and depreciating domestic currencies increased their debt burdens and the domestic cost of imported food and agricultural inputs, keeping inflation high and exacerbating existing macroeconomic vulnerabilities​​.
4. Challenges in Addressing Economic Shocks:
   • Governments in these countries face limited budgetary resources to invest in social protection programs or to build resilience among vulnerable households. This is due to elevated levels of public debt, which require increased spending on interest payments. The depletion of foreign exchange reserves also makes it more difficult for these countries to import essential goods, including food​.
5. Effects of Inflation:
   • By February 2024, 58% of low-income countries were experiencing inflation rates higher than 5%, which further strained household purchasing power and economic stability​.

A Legacy of Collaboration and a Blueprint for the Future

By Dr. Bravious Kahyoza, PhD, Senior Economist at TICGL

Tanzania’s journey with Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) is a compelling narrative of ambition, resilience, and progress. From visionary reforms to groundbreaking collaborations, the country has redefined how public and private sectors can unite to tackle critical challenges. At its core, this is a story of transformation, driven by innovation and a steadfast belief in the power of partnership to uplift a nation.

The Foundations of PPPs in Tanzania

The foundation for PPPs in Tanzania was laid during the administration of President Benjamin Mkapa, whose foresight underscored the importance of liberalization in achieving sustainable economic growth. Under his leadership, Tanzania embraced reforms that positioned the private sector as an engine of development. Mkapa’s vision was clear: the private sector is not a competitor but a development partner. This belief set the stage for deeper collaborations between the government and private entities in providing critical public services and infrastructure.

Building on this foundation, the government under Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda took decisive steps to institutionalize the PPP framework. In 2010, the Public-Private Partnership Act, Cap. 103 was enacted, establishing the PPP Coordination Unit and the PPP Finance Unit to analyze projects for technical and financial viability, respectively. Pinda championed the legislation, emphasizing the need for a structured system where the government and private sector could collaborate efficiently. However, implementation challenges soon became evident, necessitating further reforms.

Evolution and Reforms of the PPP Framework

By 2014, the government acknowledged these challenges and moved to amend the PPP Act, merging the two units into the PPP Centre, a centralized entity within the Office of the Prime Minister. This reform aimed to streamline decision-making processes and reduce bureaucratic hurdles. Economic experts like Prof. Lucian Msambichaka from the University of Dar es Salaam supported the change, noting that a fragmented approach could not thrive in a fast-paced economic environment. A single institution, he argued, would instill confidence among investors and guide the process more effectively.

Another pivotal reform came in 2018, when the PPP Centre was relocated to the Ministry of Finance and Planning to align its operations more closely with the country’s fiscal policies. Leaders like Prof. Kitila Mkumbo, Minister of Planning and Investment, advocated for the move, believing that integration with the finance ministry would ensure more effective resource mobilization aligned with national priorities.

Current Leadership and Progress

Today, the PPP Centre operates under the Ministry of Finance and Planning, led by David Zacharia Kafulila, a seasoned public administrator appointed as the Centre’s first Executive Director in January 2024. Under his leadership, Tanzania’s PPP agenda has been revitalized, leading to the initiation and acceleration of projects in critical sectors such as energy, transportation, and health. With a results-driven approach, Kafulila emphasizes that partnerships must deliver real outcomes. His leadership has drawn praise from President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who, in a national address, recognized the Centre’s transformation into a model of efficiency and innovation. Projects once stalled are now progressing, instilling a renewed sense of hope for the future.

Challenges and the Road Ahead

Yet, despite the progress, challenges remain. The late Prof. Honest Ngowi from Mzumbe University often highlighted the barriers hindering the full realization of PPPs in Tanzania. These include gaps in the legal and institutional framework, a need for more comprehensive feasibility studies, and improved risk-sharing mechanisms to better attract private-sector investment. As he put it, goodwill alone is not enough—the government must foster an environment where investors feel secure and respected.

The impact of faith-based organizations in sectors such as education, health, and water demonstrates the transformative power of partnerships. Their successes offer proof of concept, yet scaling these models to large infrastructure projects has proven difficult due to complex regulatory and financial dynamics.

Tanzania’s PPP progress has been bolstered by broader economic reforms. Investment as a percentage of GDP increased from 17.6 percent in 1995 to 26.3 percent in 2008, and by 2023, it stood at 40.25 percent—reflecting greater private sector participation. However, access to credit remains low by global standards, limiting the scope of private involvement in high-impact projects. Prof. Ngowi often emphasized the need for expanded access to long-term financing to support truly transformative initiatives.

Foreign Direct Investment has also seen positive growth, rising by 14.7 percent in 2023 to reach $1.65 billion, up from $1.44 billion the year before. This increase was largely driven by a surge in intercompany loans, which accounted for 43.1 percent of total FDI flows, compared to 8.7 percent in 2022. While these figures are promising, they remain modest when compared to global and regional benchmarks. Addressing bottlenecks in infrastructure and refining the regulatory environment will be crucial to attracting even more investment. Prof. Mkumbo has often stressed that without a supportive business environment, Tanzania risks falling behind in the global competition for capital.

A Look at Regional Success Stories

Valuable lessons can be drawn from other African countries that have implemented successful PPP models. South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement (REIPPP) program has attracted billions in investment by offering clear guidelines, competitive bidding, and consistent government commitment. Kenya’s Nairobi Expressway is another success story, showcasing the value of strategic partnerships that balance investor returns with public benefits.

These examples underline a central truth: effective PPPs depend on transparent processes, strong institutions, and clear policy frameworks that inspire investor confidence while safeguarding public interest.

The Future of PPPs in Tanzania

As Tanzania moves toward realizing its Vision 2025 development agenda, the role of PPPs will only grow more critical. The government recognizes that bridging financial and technical resource gaps will require active participation from the private sector. Kafulila maintains that PPPs are not just a financing mechanism—they are a strategy for delivering better services and spurring economic growth. His balanced approach blends private-sector innovation with public oversight to ensure lasting benefits for all citizens.

The legacy of PPPs in Tanzania reflects decades of deliberate policy choices and courageous leadership—from President Mkapa’s economic liberalization to Prime Minister Pinda’s legal reforms and the insights of economists like Prof. Msambichaka and Prof. Ngowi. Today, that legacy is being shaped further by a new generation of leaders and partners.

With strong leadership, coherent policies, and a shared national vision, Tanzania is well-positioned to unlock the full potential of Public-Private Partnerships—building a future defined by inclusive development, modern infrastructure, and sustained prosperity.

Nafasi ya Tanzania katika deni kwa Shirika la Kimataifa la Maendeleo la Benki ya Dunia (IDA) inaweza kueleweka kwa kuchambua mzigo wake wa deni kwa jumla, hasa katika muktadha wa ukanda wa Afrika Mashariki na Afrika kwa ujumla.

Deni la Tanzania kwa IDA linaakisi nafasi yake ya kimkakati katika Afrika Mashariki na hitaji lake la kupata ufadhili wa masharti nafuu ili kusaidia ajenda yake ya maendeleo.

Ripoti ya kifedha ya IDA ya Juni 2024 inatoa takwimu za kina kuhusu mikopo na misaada iliyotolewa katika kanda mbalimbali, ikiwemo Afrika.

1. Mikopo na Ahadi za Misaada Afrika:
   • Ripoti ya IDA inaonyesha kuwa jumla ya utoaji wa mikopo na misaada katika kanda ya Afrika Mashariki na Kusini mwa Afrika ilifikia dola bilioni 10.7 kwa mwaka wa fedha 2024, ambapo Tanzania ilikuwa mnufaika mkubwa kutokana na nafasi yake kama uchumi mkubwa katika eneo hili.
   • Hasa, Afrika Mashariki na Kusini mwa Afrika zilipata mikopo yenye thamani ya dola bilioni 6.672 na misaada ya dola bilioni 4.024.
2. Mikopo Halisi Inayodaiwa:
   • Kufikia Juni 30, 2024, jumla ya mikopo halisi inayodaiwa na IDA ilikuwa dola bilioni 198.5 duniani kote, ambapo sehemu kubwa ilielekezwa kwa nchi za Afrika. Tanzania, kama mnufaika muhimu, itakuwa na sehemu kubwa ya fedha hizi, hasa kupitia mikopo ya masharti nafuu.
   • Masharti ya kifedha kwa mikopo hii, ikiwemo riba na ada za huduma, yanatofautiana kulingana na aina ya mkopo, na nyingi zikiwa za masharti nafuu au mchanganyiko.
3. Nafasi Maalum ya Tanzania:
   • Ingawa ripoti haijabainisha takwimu kwa kila nchi ya Afrika, nafasi ya Tanzania kama uchumi maarufu katika Afrika Mashariki inaonyesha kuwa ni mnufaika mkubwa wa ufadhili wa IDA. Deni la Tanzania kwa IDA linaweza kujumuisha mchanganyiko wa mikopo ya masharti nafuu na misaada inayolenga kusaidia miradi ya maendeleo, hasa katika sekta kama miundombinu, kilimo, na huduma za kijamii.

Nafasi ya Kulinganisha Afrika:

• Deni la Tanzania kwa IDA ni sehemu ya mkusanyiko mpana unaojumuisha pia uchumi mkubwa wa Afrika. Hata hivyo, utulivu wa Tanzania na ukuaji wa uchumi unaoendelea vinaifanya kuwa mkopaji muhimu ndani ya mfumo wa IDA, ambao umeundwa kutoa ufadhili wa gharama nafuu kwa nchi zinazokidhi viwango maalum vya kipato.
• Katika muktadha mpana wa Afrika, Tanzania, pamoja na nchi kama Kenya na Uganda, inachukua nafasi kubwa katika kunyonya rasilimali za IDA zinazolenga kupunguza umasikini na kuboresha hali ya uchumi.

Orodha ya Nchi za Afrika Zenye Deni Kubwa kwa Shirika la Kimataifa la Maendeleo la Benki ya Dunia (IDA) kufikia Juni 2024

1. Nigeria: $16.5 bilioni
2. Ethiopia: $12.2 bilioni
3. Kenya: $12.0 bilioni
4. Tanzania: $11.7 bilioni
5. Ghana: $6.7 bilioni
6. Uganda: $4.8 bilioni

Nafasi ya Tanzania kama moja ya nchi za Afrika zenye deni kubwa kwa Shirika la Kimataifa la Maendeleo la Benki ya Dunia (IDA) inaonyesha mambo kadhaa muhimu kuhusu hali yake ya kiuchumi na maendeleo

1. Mahitaji Makubwa ya Maendeleo
   • Kiwango cha deni la Tanzania cha dola bilioni 11.7 kwa IDA kinaonyesha utegemezi mkubwa wa nchi hiyo kwenye ufadhili wa masharti nafuu ili kusaidia ajenda yake ya maendeleo. Kiwango hiki kikubwa cha deni kina uwezekano wa kuhusishwa na uwekezaji katika sekta muhimu kama miundombinu, elimu, afya, na kilimo, ambazo ni muhimu kwa kuendesha ukuaji wa uchumi na kupunguza umasikini.
2. Ufadhili wa Masharti Nafuu
   • IDA inatoa mikopo kwa masharti ya riba nafuu sana, ikimaanisha kuwa mikopo ya Tanzania kutoka IDA ina riba za chini na vipindi vya kulipa vilivyorefushwa. Aina hii ya ufadhili ni muhimu kwa nchi inayokua kama Tanzania, ambapo upatikanaji wa masoko ya mitaji unaweza kuwa na vikwazo au kuwa na gharama kubwa.
3. Nafasi ya Kimkakati Afrika Mashariki
   • Kuwa moja ya wakopaji wakubwa katika kanda hii kunaonyesha umuhimu wa kimkakati wa Tanzania katika Afrika Mashariki. Ni mchezaji muhimu katika mandhari ya kiuchumi ya kanda, na mwelekeo wake wa maendeleo una athari si kwa yenyewe tu bali pia kwa nchi jirani. Ukopaji huu ni sehemu ya mikakati pana ya maendeleo ya kanda, ikiwemo miradi ya miundombinu inayoongeza uunganishaji wa kanda.
4. Kuelekeza Malengo ya Maendeleo Endelevu (SDGs)
   • Ukopaji wa Tanzania kutoka IDA kuna uwezekano mkubwa wa kulingana na juhudi zake za kufikia Malengo ya Maendeleo Endelevu ya Umoja wa Mataifa (SDGs). Fedha hizi kwa kawaida zinaelekezwa kwenye miradi yenye athari za muda mrefu kwenye ukuaji wa uchumi, ujumuishaji wa kijamii, na uendelevu wa mazingira.
5. Masuala ya Uendelevu wa Deni
   • Ingawa masharti nafuu ya mikopo ya IDA yanasaidia kudhibiti mzigo wa kulipa, ukubwa wa deni pia unaibua maswali kuhusu uendelevu wa deni kwa muda mrefu. Tanzania inapaswa kuhakikisha kuwa miradi inayofadhiliwa na deni hili inaleta mapato ya kiuchumi ya kutosha ili kukidhi majukumu ya baadaye bila kuhatarisha utulivu wa kifedha.
6. Ukuaji wa Uchumi na Mabadiliko ya Kimuundo
   • Kiwango kikubwa cha deni kinaonyesha kuwa Tanzania iko katika hatua ya mabadiliko ya haraka ya kiuchumi, ambapo uwekezaji mkubwa unahitajika kuboresha miundombinu, kuboresha huduma za umma, na kuunda ajira. Uwezo wa nchi hiyo kusimamia na kutumia deni hili kwa ufanisi utakuwa muhimu katika kufanikisha lengo lake la kufikia hadhi ya kipato cha kati na ukuaji endelevu.