Balancing External Stability with Rising Domestic Obligations Amidst Economic Development

External Debt

• 21-Jun: TZS 76,539,331 million
• May-23: TZS 82,378,964 million
• Jun-24: TZS 76,410,554 million
• 1 Month Change: -7% (from May-23 to Jun-24)
• 1 Year Change: 0% (from 21-Jun to Jun-24)

Analysis: External debt decreased by 7% over the past month but remained relatively stable over the past year, showing no significant change.

Domestic Debt

• 21-Jun: TZS 28,927,100 million
• May-23: TZS 31,491,600 million
• Jun-24: TZS 31,938,200 million
• 1 Month Change: 1% (from May-23 to Jun-24)
• 1 Year Change: 10% (from 21-Jun to Jun-24)

Analysis: Domestic debt increased by 1% over the past month and by 10% over the past year, indicating a growing reliance on domestic borrowing.

Total Debts

• 21-Jun: TZS 105,466,431 million
• May-23: TZS 113,870,564 million
• Jun-24: TZS 108,348,754 million
• 1 Month Change: -5% (from May-23 to Jun-24)
• 1 Year Change: 3% (from 21-Jun to Jun-24)

Analysis: Total debt decreased by 5% over the past month but increased by 3% over the past year, reflecting fluctuations in both external and domestic debt levels.

Summary

• External Debt saw a decrease in the short term but remained stable year-on-year.
• Domestic Debt has been on the rise both monthly and annually, suggesting increased domestic borrowing.
• Total Debt has decreased recently but shows a slight increase over the year, indicating overall growth in the debt burden.

Tanzania's economic development and the debt

While the decrease in external debt is a positive sign, the rising domestic debt and overall increase in total debt are areas of concern. Effective debt management and strategic investments will be crucial for ensuring that debt remains sustainable and continues to support economic development without stifling growth.

1. External Debt Stability

• Current Status: External debt has decreased recently but remains steady over the year.
  • Implications: A stable external debt level suggests that Tanzania is managing its foreign obligations relatively well. The recent decrease might be due to repayments or reduced new borrowing. However, since there's no significant annual change, it indicates a balanced approach to managing foreign debt.

2. Rising Domestic Debt

• Current Status: Domestic debt has increased both recently and over the past year.
  • Implications: The growth in domestic debt could indicate increased government borrowing from local sources, which might be used for development projects or to address budget deficits. While this can stimulate economic activity, it also raises concerns about sustainability and potential crowding out of private sector investment. Higher domestic debt may lead to increased interest rates, affecting economic growth.

3. Overall Debt Dynamics

• Current Status: Total debt has decreased in the short term but has increased over the past year.
  • Implications: The short-term decrease in total debt might be a positive sign of improved fiscal management or reduced borrowing needs. However, the overall increase over the year suggests a growing debt burden, which could have implications for economic stability and future fiscal policy.

4. Economic Growth and Debt Sustainability

• Economic Growth: The increase in total debt, especially domestic debt, could be a result of efforts to finance infrastructure and development projects, which are crucial for economic growth. However, if debt levels rise faster than economic growth, it could lead to sustainability issues.
  • Debt Sustainability: Maintaining a balance between borrowing and revenue generation is crucial. A rapid increase in domestic debt, in particular, can lead to higher debt servicing costs, potentially impacting public investment and services.

5. Policy Implications

• Fiscal Policy: The government might need to focus on improving fiscal policies to manage both external and domestic debt effectively. This could involve enhancing revenue collection, controlling expenditures, and ensuring that debt financing supports growth-enhancing investments.
• Economic Reforms: Addressing the rising domestic debt might require reforms to improve economic efficiency and attract more private investment.

Improved Trade Balance and Strengthened Reserves Amid Economic Growth

External Sector Performance Overview

The external sector performance of Tanzania has shown notable improvements due to several factors:

1. Current Account Deficit

• June 2024: USD 2,501.3 million
• June 2023: USD 4,955.6 million

The current account deficit decreased significantly from USD 4,955.6 million in June 2023 to USD 2,501.3 million in June 2024. This represents a reduction of approximately 49.5% year-on-year. The current account deficit reached its lowest point since July 2023.

2. Foreign Exchange Reserves

• End of June 2024: USD 5,345.5 million

Foreign exchange reserves improved to USD 5,345.5 million by the end of June 2024. This level of reserves is adequate to cover 4.4 months of projected imports of goods and services, aligning with both national and East African Community (EAC) benchmarks.

3. Current Account Breakdown

Here’s a closer look at the different components of the current account for June 2024 compared to previous periods:

Goods Account

• June 2024: USD -303.8 million
• June 2023: USD -415.6 million
• Change: Improvement from a deficit of USD 415.6 million to USD 303.8 million.

Exports increased from USD 623.9 million in June 2023 to USD 704.2 million in June 2024, an increase of approximately 12.9%.
Imports decreased from USD 1,039.6 million in June 2023 to USD 1,008.0 million in June 2024, a decrease of approximately 3.1%

Services Account

• June 2024: USD 434.8 million
• June 2023: USD 343.75 million
• Change: Improvement from a surplus of USD 343.75 million to USD 434.8 million.

Receipts rose from USD 515.3 million in June 2023 to USD 609.6 million in June 2024, an increase of approximately 18.3%.
Payments remained relatively stable, increasing slightly from USD 171.6 million in June 2023 to USD 174.8 million in June 2024.

1. Goods and Services

• June 2024: USD 131.0 million
• June 2023: USD -71.9 million
• Change: Turned from a deficit to a surplus.

Exports of goods and services increased from USD 1,139.3 million in June 2023 to USD 1,313.8 million in June 2024, an increase of about 15.3%.
Imports of goods and services decreased from USD 1,211.2 million in June 2023 to USD 1,182.8 million in June 2024, a decrease of approximately 2.3%.

1. Primary Income Account

• June 2024: USD -181.1 million
• June 2023: USD -132.6 million
• Change: Worsened from a deficit of USD 132.6 million to USD 181.1 million.

Receipts increased slightly from USD 13.5 million in June 2023 to USD 17.5 million in June 2024.
Payments also increased from USD 146.1 million in June 2023 to USD 198.6 million in June 2024.

1. Secondary Income Account

• June 2024: USD 45.0 million
• June 2023: USD 102.7 million
• Change: Declined from a surplus of USD 102.7 million to USD 45.0 million.

Inflows decreased from USD 111.2 million in June 2023 to USD 56.8 million in June 2024.
Outflows increased from USD 8.5 million in June 2023 to USD 11.7 million in June 2024.

Summary of Key Figures

• Current Account Deficit: Reduced by 49.5% from USD 4,955.6 million in June 2023 to USD 2,501.3 million in June 2024.
• Foreign Exchange Reserves: Increased to USD 5,345.5 million, enough to cover 4.4 months of imports.
• Export of Goods and Services: Increased by 14.9% from USD 12,780.4 million in 2023 to USD 14,680.7 million in 2024.
• Import of Goods and Services: Decreased by 5.6% from USD 16,980.4 million in 2023 to USD 16,027.0 million in 2024.

The external sector performance and Tanzania's economic development

1. Improved Balance of Payments

The significant reduction in the current account deficit—from USD 4,955.6 million in June 2023 to USD 2,501.3 million in June 2024—suggests that Tanzania's balance of payments is improving. This is a positive sign for the country's economic stability and growth prospects. A lower current account deficit means that the country is importing less relative to its exports, which can be beneficial for economic sustainability.

2. Enhanced Foreign Exchange Reserves

With foreign exchange reserves increasing to USD 5,345.5 million, Tanzania is in a stronger position to manage its external payments and financial obligations. The reserves are sufficient to cover 4.4 months of projected imports, which is in line with the recommended benchmarks for economic stability. This level of reserves can help buffer against external shocks and provide confidence to investors and international markets.

3. Export Performance

The increase in exports of goods and services—from USD 12,780.4 million in 2023 to USD 14,680.7 million in 2024—indicates a positive trend in Tanzania's external trade. Stronger export performance can contribute to higher foreign exchange earnings and support economic growth. This improvement reflects positively on the country’s trade policies and competitiveness in international markets.

4. Import Management

The decrease in the import bill—from USD 16,980.4 million in 2023 to USD 16,027.0 million in 2024—suggests effective import management and possibly enhanced domestic production. Lower imports relative to exports can help reduce the current account deficit and support economic growth by reducing dependence on foreign goods and services.

5. Sectoral Performance

• Goods Account: The improvement in the goods account deficit (from USD -415.6 million in June 2023 to USD -303.8 million in June 2024) indicates better trade performance in terms of goods. This could be due to increased production, better terms of trade, or successful export diversification.
• Services Account: The rise in the services account surplus (from USD 343.75 million to USD 434.8 million) shows that Tanzania is benefiting from services exports, such as tourism, financial services, or transport. This is a positive indicator of the country's growing service sector.

6. Primary Income and Secondary Income Accounts

• Primary Income Account: The worsening deficit in the primary income account (from USD -132.6 million to USD -181.1 million) suggests increased payments for primary income, such as interest, dividends, and wages. This may indicate a higher level of foreign investment or debt servicing costs.
• Secondary Income Account: The decline in the secondary income surplus (from USD 102.7 million to USD 45.0 million) points to reduced remittances or transfers. This could impact the overall disposable income and spending power of households that rely on such inflows.

Implications for Economic Development

1. Economic Stability: The reduction in the current account deficit and improvement in foreign exchange reserves suggest that Tanzania is making progress toward economic stability. This stability is crucial for attracting foreign investment and sustaining economic growth.
2. Growth Prospects: Improved export performance and controlled imports indicate that Tanzania is on a path of economic growth. Enhanced trade balance and export earnings can provide the necessary resources for development projects and infrastructure improvements.
3. Policy Effectiveness: The positive trends reflect the effectiveness of economic policies related to trade, export promotion, and import management. Continued focus on these areas can further strengthen economic performance.
4. Investment Climate: A more stable external sector and higher foreign exchange reserves can improve investor confidence, potentially leading to increased foreign direct investment and development in various sectors of the economy.
5. Challenges Ahead: While the external sector is performing well, challenges such as primary income deficits and declining secondary income surpluses need to be addressed to ensure balanced and sustainable economic development.

Recent Trends in Interbank Cash and Foreign Exchange Markets Amid Economic Developments

Interbank Cash Market (IBCM)

1. Transaction Volume:
   • June 2024: Transactions totaled TZS 1,277.6 billion.
   • Previous Month: Transactions were TZS 1,581.2 billion.
   • Change: The transaction volume decreased by TZS 303.6 billion, which represents a decrease of approximately 19.2%.
2. 7-Day Transactions:
   • Percentage of Total Turnover: 37.6%.
   • This indicates that a substantial portion of the total transactions in the IBCM was concentrated in 7-day instruments, highlighting their dominance in the market.
3. Interest Rates:
   • June 2024: The overall IBCM interest rate was 7.36%.
   • Previous Month: The rate was 7.34%.
   • Change: There was a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points, or approximately 0.3%.

Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM)

1. Market Participation:
   • Increased Participation: Attributed to increased foreign exchange inflows from tourism, gold exports, and cash crops.
2. Net Sales:
   • Bank Sales: The Bank sold USD 0.25 million on a net basis.
   • Commercial Bank Sales: Commercial banks sold USD 7.7 million.
   • This indicates higher selling activity by commercial banks compared to the central bank, reflecting greater liquidity in the market.
3. Exchange Rate:
   • June 2024: The shilling traded at an average rate of TZS 2,626.07 per USD.
   • Previous Month: The rate was TZS 2,599.05 per USD.
   • Change: The shilling depreciated by TZS 27.02, or approximately 1.0% compared to the previous month.
4. Annual Depreciation:
   • Annual Depreciation: The shilling depreciated by 12.5% compared to the same month in the previous year.
   • This indicates a significant annual weakening of the shilling against the US dollar.

Figures Recap:

• IBCM:
  • Total Transactions: Down from TZS 1,581.2 billion to TZS 1,277.6 billion.
  • 7-Day Transactions: 37.6% of total.
  • Interest Rate: Increased from 7.34% to 7.36%.
• IFEM:
  • Net Bank Sales: USD 0.25 million.
  • Net Commercial Bank Sales: USD 7.7 million.
  • Exchange Rate: Increased from TZS 2,599.05 to TZS 2,626.07 per USD.
  • Annual Depreciation: 12.5%.

Tanzania’s economic development, Interbank cash and foreign exchange markets

Interbank Cash Market (IBCM)

1. Transaction Volume Decline:
   • Decrease in Transactions: The significant drop in transaction volume from TZS 1,581.2 billion to TZS 1,277.6 billion suggests a contraction in market activity. This could indicate reduced liquidity or less demand for short-term funding in the banking sector, potentially reflecting broader economic uncertainties or tightening financial conditions.
2. Dominance of 7-Day Transactions:
   • Market Preferences: The dominance of 7-day transactions (37.6% of total turnover) indicates that short-term financing remains a key component of the market. This preference might suggest a cautious approach by banks, possibly due to uncertainty in the economic outlook or a need for flexibility in their liquidity management.
3. Interest Rate Trends:
   • Slight Increase in Rates: The small increase in the overall IBCM interest rate from 7.34% to 7.36% reflects a marginal rise in the cost of short-term borrowing. This might be indicative of tightening monetary conditions or a response to inflationary pressures, which could affect borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM)

1. Increased Foreign Exchange Inflows:
   • Source of Inflows: The increase in foreign exchange inflows from tourism, gold exports, and cash crops highlights a positive aspect of Tanzania’s economic performance. Strong foreign exchange inflows from these sectors can support the country’s balance of payments and strengthen its foreign reserves, which is beneficial for economic stability.
2. Net Sales and Market Activity:
   • Commercial Bank Sales: The significant net sales by commercial banks (USD 7.7 million) compared to the central bank’s net sales (USD 0.25 million) suggest robust activity and possibly increased demand for foreign currency. This could be related to higher import demand or foreign investments.
3. Exchange Rate Trends:
   • Shilling Depreciation: The depreciation of the Tanzania shilling from TZS 2,599.05 to TZS 2,626.07 per USD, along with a 12.5% annual depreciation, reflects a weakening currency. This could be a result of various factors, including trade imbalances, inflationary pressures, or capital flight. A weaker currency can impact import costs, inflation, and overall economic stability.

Implications for Economic Development

1. Liquidity and Monetary Policy:
   • The decline in IBCM transaction volumes and the slight rise in interest rates suggest that liquidity conditions in the banking sector are tightening. This could influence economic growth by making borrowing more expensive and potentially slowing down investment and consumer spending.
2. Economic Activity and Exchange Rates:
   • The increased foreign exchange inflows from key sectors are positive for Tanzania’s economy, indicating strong performance in tourism, exports, and agriculture. However, the depreciation of the shilling could lead to higher import costs and inflation, which might affect consumer purchasing power and economic stability.
3. Inflation and Investment Climate:
   • A weaker currency and higher interest rates can contribute to inflationary pressures, which might affect the cost of living and business operations. This could impact the overall investment climate, influencing both domestic and foreign investment decisions.
4. Policy Adjustments:
   • The central bank might need to consider monetary and fiscal policy adjustments to address the challenges posed by currency depreciation and tightening liquidity. Ensuring a stable macroeconomic environment will be crucial for sustaining economic growth and development.

Katika nchi za Afrika Mashariki, hali ya akiba na uwezo wa kufunika uingizaji bidhaa ulitofautiana sana. Kenya ilikuwa na akiba ya juu zaidi na uwezo wa uingizaji bidhaa ulio imara, wakati Tanzania na Uganda zilionyesha mwelekeo wa kushuka kwa akiba na uwezo wa uingizaji bidhaa. Akiba ya Rwanda iliongezeka kidogo mwaka 2023, ilhali Burundi ilikabiliwa na upungufu mkubwa wa akiba na uwezo wa uingizaji bidhaa, ikionyesha changamoto kubwa za kiuchumi.

Tanzania

• 2021: TZS 15.36 trilioni
• 2022: TZS 12.48 trilioni
• 2023: TZS 11.76 trilioni
• Ukuaji (%): 33.9% mwaka 2021, -18.9% mwaka 2022, -6.0% mwaka 2023
• Miezi ya Ustahimilivu wa Uingizaji Bidhaa: 7.1 mwaka 2021, 3.7 mwaka 2022, 3.6 mwaka 2023

Uchambuzi: Akiba ya fedha za kigeni ya Tanzania ilipungua kwa kiasi kikubwa ndani ya miaka mitatu, kutoka TZS 15.36 trilioni mwaka 2021 hadi TZS 11.76 trilioni mwaka 2023. Ukuaji mkubwa mwaka 2021 ulifuatiwa na kushuka kwa kiasi kikubwa katika miaka iliyofuata. Ustahimilivu wa uingizaji bidhaa, unaopima muda ambao akiba inaweza kufunika uingizaji bidhaa wa nchi, pia ulipungua kutoka miezi 7.1 mwaka 2021 hadi miezi 3.6 mwaka 2023. Kupungua huku kwa akiba na ustahimilivu wa uingizaji bidhaa kunadhihirisha changamoto zinazoweza kutokea katika kudhibiti mshtuko wa nje na kudumisha viwango vya uingizaji bidhaa.

Kenya

• 2021: TZS 22.8 trilioni
• 2022: TZS 19.4 trilioni
• 2023: TZS 20.6 trilioni
• Ukuaji (%): 14.4% mwaka 2021, -14.8% mwaka 2022, 6.0% mwaka 2023
• Miezi ya Ustahimilivu wa Uingizaji Bidhaa: 5.5 mwaka 2021, 4.0 mwaka 2022, 4.2 mwaka 2023

Uchambuzi: Akiba ya fedha za kigeni ya Kenya ilipungua mwaka 2022 lakini ilipanda kidogo mwaka 2023. Licha ya kushuka, Kenya iliendelea kuwa na kiwango cha juu cha akiba ikilinganishwa na Tanzania. Akiba ilitoa ustahimilivu wa miezi 5.5 ya uingizaji bidhaa mwaka 2021, ikipungua hadi miezi 4.2 kufikia mwaka 2023. Hii inaashiria uwezo wa wastani wa kushughulikia mahitaji ya uingizaji bidhaa na shinikizo za nje, huku kukiwa na maboresho madogo katika mwaka wa hivi karibuni.

Uganda

• 2021: TZS 10.32 trilioni
• 2022: TZS 8.64 trilioni
• 2023: TZS 9.36 trilioni
• Ukuaji (%): 12.6% mwaka 2021, -17.8% mwaka 2022, 8.7% mwaka 2023
• Miezi ya Ustahimilivu wa Uingizaji Bidhaa: 4.8 mwaka 2021, 3.9 mwaka 2022, 3.4 mwaka 2023

Uchambuzi: Uganda ilipata upungufu wa akiba mwaka 2022 lakini iliona ongezeko mwaka 2023. Ustahimilivu wa akiba pia ulipungua kutoka miezi 4.8 mwaka 2021 hadi miezi 3.4 mwaka 2023. Mwelekeo huu unaonyesha kupungua kwa uwezo wa akiba kufunika uingizaji bidhaa, huenda ukionesha shinikizo la kiuchumi au hatari za nje.

Rwanda

• 2021: TZS 4.56 trilioni
• 2022: TZS 4.08 trilioni
• 2023: TZS 4.8 trilioni
• Ukuaji (%): 4.9% mwaka 2021, -7.7% mwaka 2022, 15.5% mwaka 2023
• Miezi ya Ustahimilivu wa Uingizaji Bidhaa: 5.6 mwaka 2021, 4.1 mwaka 2022, 4.2 mwaka 2023

Uchambuzi: Akiba ya Rwanda ilionyesha kuimarika mwaka 2023 baada ya kupungua mwaka 2022. Ongezeko la akiba mwaka 2023 pia lilisababisha kuboreka kidogo kwa ustahimilivu wa uingizaji bidhaa, kutoka miezi 4.1 mwaka 2022 hadi miezi 4.2 mwaka 2023. Hii inaashiria hali ya utulivu na kuboreka kwa akiba kufikia mwishoni mwa kipindi hiki.

Burundi

• 2021: TZS 0.72 trilioni
• 2022: TZS 0.48 trilioni
• 2023: TZS 0.24 trilioni
• Ukuaji (%): 198.8% mwaka 2021, -35.7% mwaka 2022, -51.2% mwaka 2023
• Miezi ya Ustahimilivu wa Uingizaji Bidhaa: 2.9 mwaka 2021, 1.4 mwaka 2022, 0.7 mwaka 2023

Uchambuzi: Akiba ya Burundi imekuwa ikipungua kwa kasi kutoka mwaka 2021 hadi 2023. Ustahimilivu wa akiba umepungua sana, kutoka miezi 2.9 mwaka 2021 hadi miezi 0.7 mwaka 2023. Kupungua huku kwa haraka kunaonesha changamoto kubwa za kudumisha akiba ya kutosha kufunika uingizaji bidhaa, jambo ambalo linaweza kuathiri utulivu wa kiuchumi na usimamizi wa madeni ya nje wa nchi.

Akiba ya fedha za kigeni na ustahimilivu wa uingizaji bidhaa Tanzania kutoka 2021 hadi 2023

Kupungua kwa akiba ya fedha za kigeni na ustahimilivu wa uingizaji bidhaa nchini Tanzania kunaashiria kuwa nchi inaweza kuwa inakabiliwa na changamoto za kiuchumi ambazo zinaweza kuathiri ukuaji na utulivu wake. Kushughulikia masuala haya kupitia sera na mikakati ya kiuchumi itakuwa muhimu kwa kudumisha maendeleo ya kiuchumi na kuimarisha ustahimilivu dhidi ya mshtuko wa nje.

1. Kupungua kwa Akiba ya Fedha za Kigeni: Akiba ya fedha za kigeni ya Tanzania imepungua kutoka TZS 15.36 trilioni mwaka 2021 hadi TZS 11.76 trilioni mwaka 2023. Upungufu huu unaonesha kuwa nchi inaweza kuwa inakabiliwa na changamoto za kudumisha akiba imara dhidi ya mshtuko wa nje. Kupungua kwa akiba kunaweza kuchangiwa na mambo mbalimbali, ikiwa ni pamoja na nakisi ya biashara, kudorora kwa uchumi, au malipo ya deni la nje yaliyoongezeka.
2. Kupungua kwa Ustahimilivu wa Uingizaji Bidhaa: Miezi ya ustahimilivu wa uingizaji bidhaa, ambayo inaonesha muda ambao akiba inaweza kufunika mahitaji ya uingizaji bidhaa, ilipungua kutoka miezi 7.1 mwaka 2021 hadi miezi 3.6 mwaka 2023. Kupungua huku kwa kasi kunaashiria kuwa uwezo wa Tanzania kufunika mahitaji ya uingizaji bidhaa kwa kutumia akiba iliyopo umepungua kwa kiasi kikubwa. Ustahimilivu wa chini wa uingizaji bidhaa unaweza kuathiri uwezo wa nchi kudhibiti biashara ya nje na kuongeza hatari kwa mabadiliko ya kiuchumi duniani.
3. Masuala ya Utulivu wa Kiuchumi: Kupungua kwa akiba na ustahimilivu wa uingizaji bidhaa kwa mfululizo kunaweza kuashiria uwezekano wa kutokea kwa hali ya kutokuwa na utulivu wa kiuchumi au matatizo ya kifedha. Kupungua kwa akiba kunapunguza uwezo wa nchi kushughulikia mshtuko wa kiuchumi, kuimarisha sarafu yake, na kusaidia biashara. Pia inaweza kuathiri imani ya wawekezaji na ukuaji wa uchumi.
4. Athari za Sera: Kupungua kwa akiba kunaonesha umuhimu wa sera za kiuchumi za kimkakati za kuimarisha nafasi ya kiuchumi ya Tanzania. Maeneo muhimu ya kushughulikia yanaweza kujumuisha:
   • Kuimarisha Utendaji wa Usafirishaji Bidhaa Nje: Kuongeza ushindani wa bidhaa za Tanzania nje ya nchi kunaweza kusaidia kuboresha mizania ya biashara na kuongeza akiba ya fedha za kigeni.
   • Kutafuta Vyanzo Mbadala vya Mapato: Kupunguza utegemezi kwenye deni la nje na kupanua vyanzo vya mapato kunaweza kupunguza hatari zinazohusiana na kupungua kwa akiba.
   • Kuboresha Ustahimilivu wa Kiuchumi: Kutekeleza sera za kuimarisha ustahimilivu wa kiuchumi, kama vile uwekezaji katika sekta muhimu na miundombinu, kunaweza kusaidia kudhibiti shinikizo la nje na kuimarisha akiba.
5. Athari kwa Maendeleo ya Kiuchumi: Akiba ya fedha za kigeni ina jukumu muhimu katika kusaidia maendeleo ya kiuchumi kwa kutoa utulivu na kujiamini kwa wawekezaji na washirika wa kimataifa. Kupungua kwa akiba kunaweza kuathiri malengo ya maendeleo ya kiuchumi kwa muda mrefu kwa kupunguza uwezo wa serikali kutekeleza mipango ya maendeleo na kuvutia uwekezaji wa kigeni.

By 2031, East African countries, including Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Ethiopia, are projected to experience significant economic growth, with varied GDP estimates. However, all these countries are expected to face trade deficits, where imports exceed exports. Addressing these imbalances will require comprehensive economic policies focusing on boosting exports, reducing unnecessary imports, and improving the overall trade balance for sustainable economic growth.

Tanzania

• GDP Estimate: $104.47 billion
• Exports: $13.48 billion
• Imports: $21.26 billion

Tanzania’s economy is expected to grow significantly by 2031, with a GDP estimate of $104.47 billion. The country's exports are projected to reach $13.48 billion, while imports are estimated at $21.26 billion. This suggests a trade deficit, which may require strategic economic policies to balance.

Kenya

• GDP Estimate: $148.51 billion
• Exports: $17.36 billion
• Imports: $36.17 billion

Kenya is projected to have a GDP of $148.51 billion by 2031. The country’s exports are expected to be $17.36 billion, whereas imports will be significantly higher at $36.17 billion. This indicates a considerable trade deficit, reflecting the need for policies to boost exports or control imports.

Uganda

• GDP Estimate: $62.73 billion
• Exports: $8.04 billion
• Imports: $15.73 billion

Uganda’s GDP is estimated to be $62.73 billion by 2031. The exports are projected to be $8.04 billion, while imports are estimated at $15.73 billion. This also shows a trade deficit, highlighting the importance of economic strategies to improve the trade balance.

Rwanda

• GDP Estimate: $18.96 billion
• Exports: $2.20 billion
• Imports: $4.00 billion

Rwanda’s economy is expected to have a GDP of $18.96 billion by 2031. Exports are projected at $2.20 billion and imports at $4.00 billion. This smaller economy also faces a trade deficit but on a smaller scale compared to other East African countries.

Ethiopia

• GDP Estimate: $176.27 billion
• Exports: $11.24 billion
• Imports: $47.30 billion

Ethiopia’s GDP is projected to be the highest among these East African countries, at $176.27 billion by 2031. However, the country’s exports are estimated at $11.24 billion, and imports at $47.30 billion, indicating a substantial trade deficit. This large gap underscores the need for policies to either increase exports or reduce reliance on imports.

Rest of East Africa

• GDP Estimate: $86.14 billion
• Exports: $9.29 billion
• Imports: $14.59 billion

The remaining East African countries collectively are projected to have a GDP of $86.14 billion by 2031. Their exports are expected to be $9.29 billion, while imports are estimated at $14.59 billion. This group also faces a trade deficit, suggesting regional economic policies might be necessary to address these imbalances.

Across East African countries, reserve positions and import cover varied widely. Kenya had the highest reserves and relatively stable import cover, while Tanzania and Uganda showed declining trends in reserves and import cover. Rwanda’s reserves improved slightly in 2023, whereas Burundi faced a critical drop in both reserves and import cover, highlighting significant economic challenges.

Tanzania

• 2021: $6.4 billion
• 2022: $5.2 billion
• 2023: $4.9 billion
• Growth (%): 33.9% in 2021, -18.9% in 2022, -6.0% in 2023
• Months of Import Cover: 7.1 in 2021, 3.7 in 2022, 3.6 in 2023

Analysis: Tanzania's foreign reserves showed a notable decline over the three years, from $6.4 billion in 2021 to $4.9 billion in 2023. The substantial growth in 2021 was followed by significant decreases in the subsequent years. The reserve coverage, which measures how long the reserves could cover the country’s imports, also fell from 7.1 months in 2021 to 3.6 months in 2023. This decline in both reserves and import cover reflects potential challenges in managing external shocks and maintaining import levels.

Kenya

• 2021: $9.5 billion
• 2022: $8.1 billion
• 2023: $8.6 billion
• Growth (%): 14.4% in 2021, -14.8% in 2022, 6.0% in 2023
• Months of Import Cover: 5.5 in 2021, 4.0 in 2022, 4.2 in 2023

Analysis: Kenya’s foreign reserves showed a decrease in 2022 but rebounded slightly in 2023. Despite a dip, Kenya maintained a higher reserve level compared to Tanzania. The reserves provided coverage for 5.5 months of imports in 2021, decreasing to 4.2 months by 2023. This suggests a moderate capacity to handle import needs and external pressures, with some improvement in the latest year.

Uganda

• 2021: $4.3 billion
• 2022: $3.6 billion
• 2023: $3.9 billion
• Growth (%): 12.6% in 2021, -17.8% in 2022, 8.7% in 2023
• Months of Import Cover: 4.8 in 2021, 3.9 in 2022, 3.4 in 2023

Analysis: Uganda experienced a decline in reserves through 2022 but saw an increase in 2023. The reserve coverage also decreased from 4.8 months in 2021 to 3.4 months in 2023. This trend indicates a tightening of reserve capacity to cover imports, potentially reflecting economic pressures or external vulnerabilities.

Rwanda

• 2021: $1.9 billion
• 2022: $1.7 billion
• 2023: $2.0 billion
• Growth (%): 4.9% in 2021, -7.7% in 2022, 15.5% in 2023
• Months of Import Cover: 5.6 in 2021, 4.1 in 2022, 4.2 in 2023

Analysis: Rwanda's reserves showed a recovery in 2023 after a decrease in 2022. The increase in reserves in 2023 also led to a slight improvement in import cover, from 4.1 months in 2022 to 4.2 months in 2023. This suggests a stabilizing situation with improved reserve adequacy towards the end of the period.

Burundi

• 2021: $0.3 billion
• 2022: $0.2 billion
• 2023: $0.1 billion
• Growth (%): 198.8% in 2021, -35.7% in 2022, -51.2% in 2023
• Months of Import Cover: 2.9 in 2021, 1.4 in 2022, 0.7 in 2023

Analysis: Burundi's reserves have been decreasing sharply from 2021 to 2023. The reserve coverage fell significantly, from 2.9 months in 2021 to only 0.7 months in 2023. This rapid decline indicates severe challenges in maintaining adequate reserves to cover imports, potentially affecting the country’s economic stability and external debt management.

Tanzania's foreign reserves and import cover from 2021 to 2023

The decline in Tanzania's foreign reserves and import cover suggests that the country may be facing economic challenges that could affect its growth and stability. Addressing these issues through targeted economic policies and strategies will be crucial for sustaining economic development and enhancing resilience to external shocks.

1. Declining Foreign Reserves

Tanzania's foreign reserves decreased from $6.4 billion in 2021 to $4.9 billion in 2023. This decline indicates that the country may be facing challenges in maintaining a robust buffer against external shocks. The reduction in reserves can be attributed to various factors, including trade imbalances, economic downturns, or increased external debt payments.

2. Reduced Import Cover

The months of import cover, which indicates how long the reserves can sustain import needs, fell from 7.1 months in 2021 to 3.6 months in 2023. This sharp decline suggests that Tanzania’s capacity to cover its import requirements with available reserves has diminished significantly. Lower import cover can impact the country's ability to manage its external trade and may lead to increased vulnerability to global economic fluctuations.

3. Economic Stability Concerns

The consistent decrease in reserves and import cover might signal potential economic instability or strain. Reduced reserves limit the country’s ability to handle economic shocks, stabilize its currency, and support trade. It could also affect investor confidence and economic growth.

4. Policy Implications

The decline in reserves highlights the need for strategic economic policies to strengthen Tanzania’s economic position. Key areas to address might include:

• Boosting Export Performance: Enhancing the competitiveness of Tanzanian exports can help improve the trade balance and increase foreign reserves.
• Diversifying Revenue Sources: Reducing reliance on external debt and diversifying revenue sources can mitigate risks associated with reserve depletion.
• Improving Economic Resilience: Implementing policies to bolster economic resilience, such as investment in critical sectors and infrastructure, can help manage external pressures and stabilize reserves.

5. Impact on Economic Development

Foreign reserves play a crucial role in supporting economic development by providing stability and confidence to investors and international partners. A declining reserve position could hinder long-term economic development goals by limiting the government's ability to implement development programs and attract foreign investment.

Tanzania’s currency remained relatively stable with gradual appreciation, while Kenya’s and Burundi’s currencies showed significant depreciation. Uganda’s Shilling exhibited stability with minor fluctuations, and Rwanda’s Franc appreciated steadily. These trends reflect different economic conditions across the region, with varying impacts on trade, inflation, and overall economic health.

Tanzania

• 2020–2023 Exchange Rates: The Tanzanian Shilling (TZS) has shown minimal fluctuations in value relative to the US Dollar over the past four years. The exchange rate increased slightly from TZS 2,288.21 in 2019 to TZS 2,383.00 in 2023.
• Percentage Changes:
  • 2019–2020: 0.26% increase
  • 2020–2021: 0.16% increase
  • 2021–2022: 0.23% increase
  • 2022–2023: 3.47% increase
• Analysis: The Tanzanian Shilling has experienced relatively stable but gradual appreciation, with a notable increase in 2023. This stability suggests a controlled inflation environment and consistent economic conditions.

Kenya

• 2020–2023 Exchange Rates: The Kenyan Shilling (KES) saw a significant increase in value against the US Dollar, from KES 101.99 in 2019 to KES 139.90 in 2023.
• Percentage Changes:
  • 2019–2020: 4.38% increase
  • 2020–2021: 2.99% increase
  • 2021–2022: 7.51% increase
  • 2022–2023: 18.69% increase
• Analysis: The Kenyan Shilling depreciated consistently over the period, with the most significant depreciation occurring in 2023. This trend indicates possible economic challenges, such as inflation or balance of payments issues.

Uganda

• 2020–2023 Exchange Rates: The Ugandan Shilling (UGX) showed a slight appreciation over the years, moving from UGX 3,699.24 in 2019 to UGX 3,725.86 in 2023.
• Percentage Changes:
  • 2019–2020: 0.31% increase
  • 2020–2021: -3.51% decrease
  • 2021–2022: 2.84% increase
  • 2022–2023: 1.18% increase
• Analysis: The Ugandan Shilling exhibited relatively stable behavior with minor fluctuations. The overall trend suggests a balanced economic situation with modest changes in currency value.

Rwanda

• 2020–2023 Exchange Rates: The Rwandan Franc (RWF) saw a steady increase in value from RWF 899.35 in 2019 to RWF 1,160.00 in 2023.
• Percentage Changes:
  • 2019–2020: 4.88% increase
  • 2020–2021: 4.84% increase
  • 2021–2022: 4.19% increase
  • 2022–2023: 12.59% increase
• Analysis: The Rwandan Franc has appreciated consistently over the years, with a notable increase in 2023. This could reflect strong economic performance or effective monetary policies.

Burundi

• 2020–2023 Exchange Rates: The Burundian Franc (BIF) depreciated significantly from BIF 1,845.62 in 2019 to BIF 2,564.30 in 2023.
• Percentage Changes:
  • 2019–2020: 3.76% increase
  • 2020–2021: 3.18% increase
  • 2021–2022: 2.96% increase
  • 2022–2023: 26.05% increase
• Analysis: The Burundian Franc experienced significant depreciation, particularly in 2023. This could indicate severe inflationary pressures or economic instability.

The exchange rate trends for the Tanzanian Shilling (TZS) from 2020 to 2023

The exchange rate trends for Tanzania indicate a relatively stable and appreciating currency, reflecting a controlled inflation environment and steady economic performance. This stability is favorable for economic planning, investment, and overall economic health. Compared to its East African neighbors, Tanzania's currency stability suggests a positive economic trajectory, possibly supported by effective monetary policies and economic reforms.

Stability and Gradual Appreciation

1. Stable Currency Value: The Tanzanian Shilling has remained relatively stable over the years, with minimal fluctuations. The exchange rate increased from TZS 2,288.21 in 2019 to TZS 2,383.00 in 2023. This stability suggests a controlled and steady economic environment, which is beneficial for long-term economic planning and investment.
2. Gradual Appreciation: The slight but consistent appreciation of the Tanzanian Shilling, particularly the 3.47% increase from 2022 to 2023, indicates a positive trend. This could reflect improvements in Tanzania's economic fundamentals, such as a stronger balance of payments, controlled inflation, or enhanced investor confidence.

Economic Indicators and Implications

1. Controlled Inflation: The stability and gradual appreciation of the TZS suggest that inflation has been relatively controlled. In many cases, currency depreciation is a result of high inflation; the modest appreciation of the TZS implies that inflation rates have been managed effectively.
2. Economic Growth: Stable currency values can be a sign of steady economic growth. The Tanzanian economy's ability to maintain a stable currency amidst global economic fluctuations suggests resilience and steady economic development. It could also be an indicator of positive economic policies or reforms that support economic stability.
3. Investor Confidence: A stable and appreciating currency often boosts investor confidence. It signals a predictable economic environment, which is attractive to both domestic and foreign investors. Tanzania's steady exchange rate could be contributing to increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and business activities.

Comparative Analysis

1. Regional Context: Compared to other East African countries, Tanzania's currency has shown less volatility. For instance, Kenya's Shilling has depreciated significantly, and Burundi's Franc has experienced substantial depreciation. Tanzania's stable currency suggests that it might be performing relatively better in terms of economic stability compared to its neighbors.
2. Economic Resilience: In the context of East Africa, where many countries are experiencing currency depreciation, Tanzania's stability might reflect stronger economic policies or resilience against external economic shocks. This relative strength can enhance Tanzania's position as a stable investment destination in the region.

Tanzania's intra-African trade activities indicate a positive trend in its role within the continent's trade network, with a notable increase in exports and a slight recovery in imports. This aligns with broader regional trends and reflects growing economic integration within East Africa.

1. Tanzania’s Position:

• Intra-African Exports:
  • 2020: $2.30 billion
  • 2021: $2.51 billion (Growth rate: 9.19%)
  • 2022: $2.64 billion (Growth rate: 5.15%)
  • 2023: $3.13 billion (Growth rate: 18.29%)

Tanzania has seen a significant increase in its intra-African exports over the period, culminating in a 2023 figure that represents a 36.2% increase from 2020. This reflects a consistent upward trend, with the most substantial growth occurring between 2022 and 2023.

• Intra-African Imports:
  • 2020: $3.16 billion
  • 2021: $2.65 billion (Decline)
  • 2022: $2.50 billion (Decline)
  • 2023: $2.83 billion (Increase)

Tanzania’s intra-African imports experienced a decline in the initial years but rebounded in 2023, reaching $2.83 billion, which is a 6.0% increase from 2022.

2. East African Neighbors:

• Kenya:
  • Intra-African Exports:
    • 2020: $2.31 billion
    • 2021: $2.79 billion (Growth rate: 20.56%)
    • 2022: $2.59 billion (Decline: -7.22%)
    • 2023: $2.66 billion (Increase: 2.74%)

Kenya's intra-African exports grew significantly in 2021 but faced a slight decrease in the subsequent years, with a modest recovery in 2023.

• Intra-African Imports:
  • 2020: $3.17 billion
  • 2021: $2.93 billion (Decline)
  • 2022: $2.45 billion (Further Decline)
  • 2023: $2.41 billion (Slight Decline)

Kenya's intra-African imports have been decreasing consistently, with the 2023 figure being 24% lower than 2020.

• Uganda:
  • Intra-African Exports:
    • 2020: $1.42 billion
    • 2021: $1.78 billion (Growth rate: 25.22%)
    • 2022: $2.23 billion (Growth rate: 25.61%)
    • 2023: $2.38 billion (Increase: 6.75%)

Uganda experienced strong growth in intra-African exports each year, with the 2023 figure reflecting an 11.5% increase from 2022.

• Intra-African Imports:
  • 2020: $1.95 billion
  • 2021: $1.87 billion (Decline)
  • 2022: $2.11 billion (Increase)
  • 2023: $2.16 billion (Slight Increase)

Uganda's intra-African imports fluctuated but showed a slight increase in 2023, reaching $2.16 billion.

• Rwanda:
  • Intra-African Exports:
    • 2020: $0.72 billion
    • 2021: $0.75 billion (Growth rate: 5.33%)
    • 2022: $0.80 billion (Growth rate: 5.68%)
    • 2023: $0.75 billion (Decrease: -5.90%)

Rwanda's exports grew in the first two years but fell slightly in 2023.

• Intra-African Imports:
  • 2020: $0.98 billion
  • 2021: $0.79 billion (Decline)
  • 2022: $0.76 billion (Further Decline)
  • 2023: $0.68 billion (Decrease)

Rwanda's intra-African imports have consistently decreased over the years, reaching a low of $0.68 billion in 2023.

3. General Trends and Observations:

• Growth Patterns: The overall trend for intra-African trade shows a strong increase in both exports and imports over the period, with significant variations among countries. For Tanzania and its East African neighbors, the most notable growth is in exports, with Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya all showing impressive increases at different points.
• Impact of External Factors: Countries such as South Africa and Egypt exhibit higher intra-African trade volumes due to their more developed economies and trade infrastructures, while smaller economies or those facing instability often show more volatile trade patterns.
• Regional Trade Dynamics: The East African region generally shows positive growth in intra-African exports, though imports exhibit mixed trends. This reflects both the growing integration within the East African Community (EAC) and the varied economic circumstances of each country.

The trends in Tanzania’s intra-African trade from 2020 to 2023

Tanzania's recent intra-African trade trends indicate a positive trajectory in its economic development. The growth in exports and the rebound in imports suggest improving economic conditions and regional integration. Continued focus on trade policies, infrastructure development, and investment in key sectors could further enhance Tanzania’s economic position within Africa.

1. Positive Export Growth:

• Steady Increase in Exports: Tanzania's intra-African exports grew from $2.30 billion in 2020 to $3.13 billion in 2023, representing a 36.2% increase over the period. This growth reflects an expanding market for Tanzanian goods within Africa and indicates improvements in Tanzania’s production and export capabilities.
• Significant Growth Rate in 2023: The sharp increase of 18.29% in 2023 compared to the previous year suggests that Tanzania's export sector is gaining momentum, potentially due to enhanced trade agreements, better trade relations, or increased competitiveness of Tanzanian products.

2. Recovery and Fluctuation in Imports:

• Initial Decline Followed by Recovery: Tanzania's intra-African imports initially declined from $3.16 billion in 2020 to $2.50 billion in 2022 but recovered to $2.83 billion in 2023. This fluctuation might be attributed to disruptions in global supply chains, changes in domestic consumption patterns, or varying levels of trade with neighboring countries.
• Increased Import Activity in 2023: The rebound in imports in 2023 could indicate a recovering domestic demand or increased economic activity, possibly driven by economic recovery post-pandemic or increased industrial activity.

3. Regional Trade Integration:

• Improved Regional Trade Position: Tanzania’s increasing export figures align with broader trends of improving regional trade within East Africa. This suggests that Tanzania is strengthening its trade relations with neighboring countries, which is crucial for its economic development given its geographical and economic positioning.
• Strategic Position in East Africa: By increasing its exports and stabilizing its imports, Tanzania is enhancing its role as a trade hub within East Africa. This could lead to greater regional influence and integration, benefiting from policies such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

4. Economic Development Indicators:

• Enhanced Production and Trade Capabilities: The growth in exports indicates that Tanzania is potentially developing its industrial and agricultural sectors to meet regional demand, contributing to economic diversification and stability.
• Potential for Investment: The increase in exports and recovery in imports may attract foreign investment as Tanzania demonstrates growth potential and economic resilience. Investors often look for stable and growing markets, and Tanzania's performance could make it a more attractive destination for investment.
• Infrastructure and Policy Impacts: The fluctuations and growth trends suggest that infrastructure improvements, trade policies, and economic reforms may be impacting trade performance. Enhanced port facilities, transport networks, and trade policies could be supporting Tanzania's increasing trade volumes.

5. Challenges and Opportunities:

• Challenges: While the growth in exports is promising, the initial decline in imports and the variability in trade figures could point to challenges such as trade imbalances, dependency on specific markets, or potential issues in supply chain reliability.
• Opportunities: The positive trend in exports provides opportunities for further economic development through regional integration, increased foreign investment, and industrial growth. Leveraging trade agreements and improving trade logistics could further enhance Tanzania’s economic prospects.

Balancing Industrial Expansion with Sustainable Practices

Tanzania

In Scenario Two, Tanzania exhibits a modest increase in total emissions, with a 0.29% rise translating to an absolute change of 0.03 MtCO2. The breakdown reveals that emissions from production have risen significantly by 4.78%, corresponding to an absolute change of 0.38 MtCO2. In contrast, emissions from consumption have decreased markedly by 12.99%, with an absolute reduction of 0.35 MtCO2. This indicates a significant shift away from consumption-related emissions towards increased production emissions.

Kenya

Kenya shows a notable increase in total emissions by 4.50%, equating to an absolute change of 0.92 MtCO2. The emissions from production have risen substantially by 5.29% (0.82 MtCO2), while emissions from consumption have increased by 2.00% (0.10 MtCO2). This reflects a rise in both production and consumption emissions, with a more significant impact from production activities.

Uganda

Uganda has the highest increase in total emissions among the East African countries, with a 24.95% rise (1.06 MtCO2). Emissions from production have increased by 24.86% (0.98 MtCO2), and emissions from consumption have also risen by 26.11% (0.08 MtCO2). This substantial growth in emissions from both sources highlights a significant escalation in Uganda’s overall emissions profile.

Rwanda

Rwanda shows a moderate increase in total emissions by 1.58%, resulting in an absolute change of 0.02 MtCO2. Emissions from production have increased by 2.00% (0.01 MtCO2), while emissions from consumption have seen a slight rise of 0.65% (0.00 MtCO2). The data suggests a small rise in emissions, primarily driven by production.

Burundi and South-Central Africa

South Central Africa shows a mixed picture with a 0.85% overall increase in emissions, or 0.24 MtCO2. Notably, emissions from production have decreased by 1.01% (-0.22 MtCO2), while emissions from consumption have surged by 6.86% (0.46 MtCO2). This indicates a shift in the region’s emissions profile from production to consumption-related sources.

Comparative Analysis

Production vs. Consumption:

• Tanzania: A substantial increase in emissions from production with a decrease in consumption-related emissions.
• Kenya: Both production and consumption emissions have risen, with production showing a more significant increase.
• Uganda: Both production and consumption emissions have significantly increased, with the largest overall rise in the region.
• Rwanda: Shows a modest increase in emissions from production, with minimal changes in consumption.

Regional Trends:

• East Africa: Countries like Uganda and Kenya are experiencing significant rises in total emissions, driven mainly by increased production and consumption activities.
• South Central Africa: Displays a decrease in production-related emissions but a substantial increase in consumption-related emissions, highlighting a shift in emission sources.

Tanzania’s emissions profile suggests a growing economy with increased production activities, coupled with efforts to reduce consumption-related emissions.

1. Increase in Production Emissions: The significant rise in emissions from production (4.78%) indicates growing industrial or economic activities within Tanzania. This could reflect an expanding manufacturing sector, increased energy use, or enhanced production processes. Such growth might be linked to economic development initiatives aimed at boosting industrial output and creating jobs.
2. Decrease in Consumption Emissions: The substantial decrease in emissions from consumption (-12.99%) suggests a reduction in consumption-related activities or a shift towards more sustainable consumption patterns. This could be due to improved efficiency in energy use, a transition to cleaner energy sources, or changes in consumer behavior.
3. Economic Implications: The increase in production emissions alongside a decrease in consumption emissions could imply that Tanzania is focusing on enhancing its production capacity while possibly implementing measures to reduce emissions from consumption sources. This might indicate a strategic focus on industrial growth with efforts to mitigate the environmental impact of increased production activities.
4. Sustainability Challenges: The rising production emissions may present challenges for sustainability, requiring policy interventions to ensure that economic growth aligns with environmental sustainability goals. This could involve adopting greener technologies, improving energy efficiency, or investing in sustainable practices within the production sector.
5. Policy Focus: To support continued economic development while addressing environmental concerns, Tanzania might need to balance industrial expansion with strategies for reducing overall emissions. This could include promoting sustainable practices, incentivizing low-carbon technologies, and enhancing regulations to manage the environmental impact of economic activities.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims to create a single continental market for goods and services, facilitating the free movement of businesspersons and investments. It is expected to have diverse impacts on different African countries. Below is an analysis of the impacts on Tanzania and other East African countries, focusing on emissions and GDP changes.

Tanzania

GDP Impact:

• Tanzania is projected to experience economic growth due to the AfCFTA. The increase in GDP reflects the country's enhanced trade activities and economic integration within the African continent.

Emissions Impact:

• Total Emissions: Increase by 1.08%, translating to an absolute change of 0.12 MtCO2.
• Emissions from Production: Increase significantly by 4.19%, with an absolute change of 0.34 MtCO2. This is likely due to increased industrial activities and production to meet the growing trade demands.
• Emissions from Consumption: Decrease by 8.11%, with an absolute reduction of 0.22 MtCO2. This indicates a shift in consumption patterns or improvements in efficiency and sustainability in consumer goods.

Kenya

GDP Impact:

• Kenya, similar to Tanzania, will benefit economically from the AfCFTA. The country is expected to see substantial growth in its GDP due to increased trade and market access.

Emissions Impact:

• Total Emissions: Increase by 2.97%, with an absolute change of 0.61 MtCO2.
• Emissions from Production: Rise by 3.61%, resulting in an absolute increase of 0.56 MtCO2. The industrial and manufacturing sectors likely drive this increase.
• Emissions from Consumption: Increase by 0.97%, with an absolute change of 0.05 MtCO2, indicating slightly higher consumption-driven emissions.

Uganda

GDP Impact:

• Uganda is also set to experience economic growth through the AfCFTA. The country will benefit from improved trade relations and market expansion.

Emissions Impact:

• Total Emissions: Increase by 3.22%, with an absolute change of 0.14 MtCO2.
• Emissions from Production: Increase by 3.47%, translating to an absolute increase of 0.14 MtCO2, indicating a rise in production activities.
• Emissions from Consumption: Decrease slightly by 0.10%, showing a negligible impact in absolute terms, suggesting stable or improved consumption efficiency.

Rwanda

GDP Impact:

• Rwanda's economy is expected to grow under the AfCFTA, benefiting from enhanced trade and economic cooperation with other African nations.

Emissions Impact:

• Total Emissions: Increase by 1.07%, resulting in an absolute change of 0.01 MtCO2.
• Emissions from Production: Increase by 1.09%, with an absolute change of 0.01 MtCO2, indicating a marginal rise in production-related emissions.
• Emissions from Consumption: Increase by 1.03%, reflecting a small absolute change, suggesting a balanced increase in both production and consumption emissions.

Overall Emissions and Economic Growth

The AfCFTA presents significant opportunities for economic growth for Tanzania and other East African countries. However, it also brings challenges in terms of managing increased emissions, particularly from production activities. Policymakers must focus on sustainable practices and technologies to mitigate the environmental impact while capitalizing on economic benefits.

Economic Growth:

• All East African countries under AfCFTA are projected to see positive economic impacts, with notable GDP increases due to expanded trade, reduced tariffs, and improved market access.

Emissions Trends:

• There is a varied impact on emissions among East African countries. While production emissions tend to increase due to higher industrial activities, consumption emissions show mixed trends, with some countries experiencing reductions, likely due to efficiency improvements or shifts in consumption patterns.