Tanzania’s economic performance in March 2025, as detailed in the April 2025 Monthly Economic Review, shows both alignment and divergence with global economic trends. Below, we compare Tanzania’s inflation, growth outlook, and commodity market influences with global forecasts, using specific figures to illustrate the relationship.

Inflation Trends

Global Trend: The IMF forecasts global inflation at 4.3% for 2025, declining to 3.6% in 2026, reflecting a slower-than-expected easing due to trade tensions and persistent pressures in advanced economies. Inflation is decreasing but remains above pre-pandemic levels in many countries.

Tanzania’s Performance: Tanzania’s headline inflation was 3.3% in March 2025, up from 3.0% in March 2024, driven by food (5.4%) and energy, fuel, and utilities (7.9%) price increases (Pages 3, 4, 5). Core inflation, excluding volatile items, fell to 2.2% from 3.9%.

Tanzania’s inflation is lower than the global forecast of 4.3%, aligning with the global trend of declining inflation. However, its food and energy-driven inflation spike mirrors global pressures from supply constraints and trade disruptions. Tanzania’s inflation remains within national and regional (EAC and SADC) targets, indicating stronger control compared to some advanced economies facing persistent pressures.

Economic Growth Outlook

Global Trend: The IMF revised global growth downward to 2.8% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026, from 3.3% for both years, due to trade tensions, unpredictable policies, and diminishing fiscal buffers. Risks include climate change and limited fiscal space in developing economies.

Tanzania’s Performance: The document does not provide a specific GDP growth rate for Tanzania in 2025 but notes that monetary policy supports economic growth while maintaining inflation below 5%. Domestic challenges include rising food and energy prices and logistical issues from seasonal rains.

Tanzania faces similar downside risks as the global economy, such as trade tensions and climate-related disruptions (e.g., heavy rains impacting food transport). However, its stable monetary policy (Central Bank Rate at 6%) and adequate liquidity suggest resilience compared to developing economies with limited fiscal space. Tanzania’s growth is likely moderated but supported by prudent policies, aligning with the global trend of cautious optimism.

Commodity Market Influences

Global Trend: Commodity markets show divergent trends:

• Gold prices rose 3% to USD 2,983.25 per ounce due to safe-haven demand.
• Fertilizer prices increased 2% to USD 615.13 per tonne due to supply constraints.
• Palm oil prices edged up 0.2% to USD 1,069 per tonne on Asian demand.
• Crude oil prices fell 4% to USD 70.70 per barrel due to oversupply.
• Coffee and sugar prices dropped 2% and 1.5%, respectively, due to improved production.

Tanzania’s Performance: Tanzania, a commodity-dependent economy, is impacted by these trends:

• Gold: Rising gold prices benefit Tanzania’s export revenues, as gold is a major export.
• Fertilizer: Higher fertilizer prices increase agricultural input costs, potentially raising food prices (e.g., maize, rice, beans), contributing to 5.4% food inflation.
• Palm Oil: Stable palm oil prices support Tanzania’s edible oil sector, aligning with robust Asian demand.
• Crude Oil: Lower oil prices reduce Tanzania’s import bill, easing pressure on energy inflation (7.9%) despite domestic petroleum price hikes.
• Coffee and Sugar: Declining coffee and sugar prices may reduce export earnings, impacting trade balance.

Tanzania’s economy is closely tied to global commodity price movements. Positive trends (gold, palm oil) bolster exports, while negative trends (fertilizer, coffee, sugar) pose challenges. The drop in crude oil prices provides relief, aligning with global oversupply benefits, but domestic supply chain issues amplify food price pressures, diverging from global commodity price declines in some sectors.

Policy and Structural Considerations

Global Trend: The global economic outlook is tilted downward due to trade tensions, unpredictable policies, and climate change, particularly affecting developing economies with limited fiscal buffers.

Tanzania’s Performance: Tanzania’s monetary policy remains stable, with the Bank of Tanzania maintaining the Central Bank Rate at 6% and ensuring liquidity through interbank rate management (Page 5). The National Food Reserve Agency’s release of 32,598 tonnes of maize and paddy mitigated food inflation (Page 4). However, logistical challenges and climate-related rains increase costs.

Tanzania’s proactive policies align with global efforts to stabilize economies amid uncertainties. Its food reserve strategy counters global supply chain disruptions, and monetary stability mitigates trade tension impacts. However, climate change (seasonal rains) and limited fiscal space, common in developing economies, pose shared challenges.

Conclusion

Tanzania’s economic performance in March 2025 aligns with global trends in declining inflation (3.3% vs. 4.3% globally) and cautious growth outlooks, supported by stable monetary policy and commodity export strengths (e.g., gold). However, it faces unique pressures from food (5.4%) and energy (7.9%) inflation, driven by domestic logistical issues and global commodity price hikes (e.g., fertilizer). While global risks like trade tensions and climate change affect Tanzania, its prudent policies and food reserves provide resilience, positioning it favorably among developing economies.

Key Economic Indicators: Tanzania vs. Global Trends (March 2025)

Notes:

• Tanzania’s data reflects March 2025 unless stated otherwise.
• Global figures are IMF forecasts or commodity price changes for March 2025.
• Source pages refer to the April 2025 Monthly Economic Review.