Author: Dr. Bravious Felix Kahyoza (PhD), FMVA, Co-Author: Dr. Jasinta Msamula Kahyoza (PhD)

Authored by Dr. Bravious Felix Kahyoza (PhD, FMVA) and Dr. Jasinta Msamula Kahyoza (PhD), this new discussion paper examines how financial modelling enhances project feasibility, risk management, and investment performance within Tanzania’s infrastructure landscape.

In the face of a $20 billion annual infrastructure financing gap, the study assesses how modelling tools—such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Net Present Value (NPV), and Monte Carlo simulations—can drive efficiency, transparency, and private sector participation in national development.

Drawing evidence from 165 stakeholders across TANROADS, PPPC, and private contractors, and data from 50 major projects (including Bagamoyo Port and Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project), the findings show:

• Moderate adoption of financial modelling (mean index 2.84/5), with DCF/NPV used in 78% of cases, but only 32% applying Monte Carlo simulations.
• Improved performance outcomes, where modelling adoption increased on-time project completion by 8.45% and explained 52% of project performance variation (R² = 0.520).
• Energy projects demonstrated stronger adoption and results due to higher risk sensitivity and technical feasibility demands.
• Main barriers include data scarcity, inadequate training, and weak digital infrastructure for advanced simulations.

The paper emphasizes that integrated probabilistic modelling—especially Monte Carlo and real options techniques—can de-risk large public-private partnerships and enhance value-for-money outcomes.

Key Policy Directions

• Institutionalize advanced modelling tools in all PPP project appraisals exceeding $100 million.
• Build national capacity through training 500 technical experts annually in DCF, Monte Carlo, and scenario analysis.
• Introduce AI-powered risk dashboards for continuous project monitoring and predictive analysis.
• Standardize financial data reporting to attract $15 billion in foreign direct investment by 2030.

These recommendations align with the Third National Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP III), reinforcing Tanzania’s commitment to resilient, private sector–driven, and sustainable infrastructure growth.

Read the Full Paper:
“Financial Modelling for Enhanced Project Feasibility and Risk Management in Tanzania’s Infrastructure Development”
Published by TICGL | Economic Research Centre