Between 2013 and 2024, Tanzania's economic growth showcased sectoral resilience and dynamism, with standout performances in ICT (13.2% Q4 2020), Construction (28.8% Q4 2016), and Agriculture (14.7% Q2 2016). Despite global challenges like COVID-19, which saw Accommodation & Restaurants plummet by 25.1% (Q2 2020), recovery has been robust across industries. This analysis highlights key drivers, sectoral contributions, and the evolving economic landscape underpinning Tanzania's sustainable growth ambitions.

Pre-2020 and post-2020):

Agriculture

• Overall Average Growth Rate: 5.2%
• Pre-2020 Average (2013Q1–2019Q4): 5.5%
• Post-2020 Average (2020Q1–2024Q3): 4.7%
• Key Observations: Growth was steady pre-2020, but post-2020, the growth rate declined slightly, possibly reflecting challenges from global economic shocks like the pandemic.

Industry and Construction

Mining and Quarrying

• Overall Average Growth Rate: 7.7%
• Pre-2020 Average: 10.6%
• Post-2020 Average: 4.3%
• Key Observations: High volatility was observed, with peaks such as 27.2% in 2015Q4, but significant dips post-2020 indicate reduced activity or market challenges.

Manufacturing

• Overall Average Growth Rate: 6.7%
• Pre-2020 Average: 7.8%
• Post-2020 Average: 4.5%
• Key Observations: Manufacturing experienced robust growth pre-2020, driven by infrastructure and industrialization programs, but faced a notable decline post-2020.

Electricity

• Overall Average Growth Rate: 8.5%
• Pre-2020 Average: 8.7%
• Post-2020 Average: 8.2%
• Key Observations: A relatively stable sector with consistent growth, though marked by occasional negative quarters, e.g., -10.2% in 2015Q3.

Water

• Overall Average Growth Rate: 5.4%
• Pre-2020 Average: 6.4%
• Post-2020 Average: 3.9%
• Key Observations: Moderate but fluctuating growth; stronger performance pre-2020 with occasional contractions, e.g., -7.1% in 2013Q3.

Construction

• Overall Average Growth Rate: 12.5%
• Pre-2020 Average: 14.8%
• Post-2020 Average: 8.1%
• Key Observations: One of the fastest-growing sectors pre-2020 due to infrastructure projects but faced a slowdown post-2020.

Services

Trade and Repair

• Overall Average Growth Rate: 5.0%
• Pre-2020 Average: 6.2%
• Post-2020 Average: 3.4%
• Key Observations: Post-2020 recovery has been slow after contractions in sectors dependent on consumer spending.

Accommodation and Restaurant

• Overall Average Growth Rate: 3.5%
• Pre-2020 Average: 4.3%
• Post-2020 Average: 2.2%
• Key Observations: This sector was severely affected by the pandemic, especially in 2020, with -25.1% in 2020Q2.

Transport and Storage

• Overall Average Growth Rate: 7.5%
• Pre-2020 Average: 8.4%
• Post-2020 Average: 5.7%
• Key Observations: A steady performer but saw reduced growth post-2020 due to reduced logistics and mobility.

Information and Communication

• Overall Average Growth Rate: 8.8%
• Pre-2020 Average: 9.1%
• Post-2020 Average: 8.4%
• Key Observations: Growth was relatively resilient, benefiting from digital adoption during and post-pandemic.

Financial and Insurance

• Overall Average Growth Rate: 5.6%
• Pre-2020 Average: 6.0%
• Post-2020 Average: 5.0%
• Key Observations: Modest growth with signs of recovery in post-pandemic years.

Insights

1. High Growth Sectors (2013-2024): Construction (12.5%), Information and Communication (8.8%), and Mining and Quarrying (7.7%).
2. Pandemic Impact: Significant slowdowns in sectors like Manufacturing, Trade, Accommodation, and Construction.
3. Resilient Sectors: Information and Communication, Financial Services, and Electricity showed consistent growth despite economic challenges.

GDP growth rates by activity at constant 2015 prices reflects the economic performance of various sectors over time

1. Sectoral Contribution and Volatility

• Agriculture: Generally steady growth, with an average growth rate of around 4–6%. Occasional spikes (e.g., Q2 2016 at 14.7%) reflect good harvests or favorable conditions. Declines or low growth (e.g., Q4 2022 at 1.9%) suggest challenges like climate effects.
• Industry and Construction:
  • Mining and Quarrying: Highly volatile, with significant spikes (e.g., Q4 2015 at 27.2%) and contractions (e.g., Q1 2013 at -11.5%). This indicates sensitivity to global commodity prices and policy changes.
  • Manufacturing: A relatively stable upward trend, with growth clustering around 5–8%. Spikes (e.g., Q3 2016 at 13.7%) indicate periods of high industrial activity or exports.
  • Construction: Substantial growth (e.g., Q4 2016 at 28.8%) tied to infrastructure development projects, reflecting government investment. Recent years (e.g., 2022–2024) show a slowdown, averaging around 3–5%.

2. Services Sector Trends

• Trade and Repair: A cyclical trend with growth peaking around 9–12% in robust periods. Declines (e.g., Q2 2020 at -0.2%) likely reflect the COVID-19 impact on commerce.
• Accommodation & Restaurants: Hit hard during COVID-19 (e.g., Q2 2020 at -25.1%) but recovering sharply in later years (e.g., Q1 2021 at 10.1%). This reflects the sensitivity of tourism-related services to external shocks.
• Transport and Storage: Moderate, steady growth (average 5–9%), with occasional dips, possibly tied to trade volumes or logistics challenges.
• Information and Communication: Consistently high growth (e.g., averaging 8–13%), underscoring the rapid digitalization and expansion of mobile services.
• Financial and Insurance Services: Volatile, with significant growth after downturns (e.g., 2021–2023 averages 9–12%). This may indicate policy-driven financial inclusion efforts or global financial trends.

3. Public Sector Influence

• Public Administration: Sustained growth averaging 5–10%, with some slowdowns, possibly reflecting government budget adjustments or economic shocks.
• Professional and Technical Activities: Strong early growth, tapering off over the years, possibly as the sector matures.

4. Key Observations

• COVID-19 Impact: Sharp contractions are visible across sectors (e.g., Q2 2020), followed by recovery. The tourism and hospitality sectors faced the largest impacts.
• Infrastructure Development: Growth in construction and manufacturing aligns with government infrastructure projects and industrialization efforts.
• Digital Transformation: Information and communication growth highlights the importance of the ICT sector as a driver of modernization.
• Agricultural Stability: Agriculture remains resilient but vulnerable to climate and external market conditions.

Implications

• Diversification: The reliance on specific sectors like mining or ICT indicates a need for broader economic diversification to reduce vulnerability to shocks.
• Policy Focus: Investments in infrastructure, digital technology, and tourism can drive sustained growth.
• Resilience Building: Agriculture and trade require resilience strategies to mitigate risks from climate and global trade disruptions.

The average GDP growth rates for Tanzania across selected periods