Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd

| Economic Research Centre

Projections for Tanzania's Ministry of Finance in Fiscal Year 2024/2025
June 19, 2024  
Implementation Review of the Ministry's Plan and Budget for 2023/24 Expenditure Trends up to April 2024 Total Approved Budget: TZS 15.87 trillion for both recurrent and development expenditures. Revenue for the Ministry for 2024/25 For the fiscal year 2024/25, the Ministry of Finance has detailed its expected revenue collection and sources: Total Estimated Revenue: TZS […]

Implementation Review of the Ministry's Plan and Budget for 2023/24

Expenditure Trends up to April 2024

Total Approved Budget: TZS 15.87 trillion for both recurrent and development expenditures.

  • Recurrent Expenditures: TZS 15.31 trillion, including:
  • Other Recurrent Expenditures: TZS 13.62 trillion (including TZS 10.48 trillion for government debt servicing and TZS 1.69 trillion for salaries).
  • Development Expenditures: TZS 556.38 billion (comprising TZS 482.55 billion from domestic sources and TZS 73.82 billion from external sources)​​.

    Revenue for the Ministry for 2024/25

    For the fiscal year 2024/25, the Ministry of Finance has detailed its expected revenue collection and sources:

    Total Estimated Revenue: TZS 44.19 trillion

    • Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA): Expected to collect TZS 29.42 trillion.
    • Grants and Concessional Loans: Expected to bring in TZS 5.13 trillion.
    • Commercial Loans from Domestic and External Sources: Estimated at TZS 9.60 trillion.
    • Non-Tax Revenue: Expected to be TZS 45.01 billion.
    • Revenue from the Office of the National Audit Office: Estimated to collect TZS 850 million from office rental income across various regions in the country​​.

    Budget Estimates for 2024/2025

    • Total Proposed Expenditure: TZS 18.17 trillion
      • Recurrent Expenditure: TZS 17.63 trillion
      • Debt Servicing: TZS 13.13 trillion
      • Salaries: TZS 946.45 billion
      • Other Recurrent Expenditures: TZS 937.30 billion
      • Main Fund Services: TZS 2.61 trillion
      • Development Expenditure: TZS 544.05 billion​​.

    Implementation of Ministry Priorities

    Collection and Search for Total Revenue of TZS 39.79 Trillion

    Expected Revenue Collection for 2023/24:

    • The Ministry of Finance was estimated to collect a total of TZS 39.79 trillion out of the government's overall revenue collection target of TZS 44.39 trillion for the fiscal year 2023/24.
      • Breakdown of Revenue Collection Targets:
      • Vote 21: Expected to collect TZS 39.74 trillion
        • Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA): TZS 26.73 trillion
        • External Finance Department: TZS 5.47 trillion
        • Government Debt Management Department: TZS 7.54 trillion
      • Vote 23: Expected to collect TZS 60 billion
      • Vote 50: Expected to collect TZS 300 million

    Actual Revenue Collection up to April 2024:

    • By April 2024, the ministry successfully collected a total of TZS 32.49 trillion, achieving 82% of the annual target.
      • Breakdown of Actual Collections:
        • Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA): TZS 21.31 trillion
        • External Finance Department: TZS 4.92 trillion
        • Government Debt Management Department: TZS 6.18 trillion
        • Revenue through Vote 23: TZS 79.23 billion
        • Revenue through Vote 50: TZS 950 million​​.

    Expenditure for 2024/25

    The Ministry of Finance has requested an approval for total expenditures of TZS 18.17 trillion for the fiscal year 2024/25, which includes both recurrent and development expenditures for eight budgetary votes (mafungu).

    1. Recurrent Expenditures:
      • Total: TZS 17.63 trillion.
      • Government Debt Servicing: TZS 13.13 trillion.
      • Salaries: TZS 946.45 billion.
      • Other Expenses: TZS 937.30 billion (for ministry and its institutions).
      • Main Fund Services: TZS 2.61 trillion.
    2. Development Expenditures:
      • Total: TZS 544.05 billion.

    National Audit Office (Fungu 045)

    • Total Requested: TZS 112.73 billion.
      • Recurrent Expenditures: TZS 101.26 billion.
      • Development Expenditures: TZS 11.47 billion.

    Challenges in Budget Implementation for 2024/2025 Considering Tanzania's Economic Growth

    Budget Implementation in 2023/2024

    In the fiscal year 2023/2024, the Ministry of Finance of Tanzania faced several challenges in implementing its budget. Key figures from this period include:

    • Total Revenue Collected: TZS 32.49 trillion
      • Tanzania Revenue Authority: TZS 21.31 trillion
      • External Finance Department: TZS 4.92 trillion
      • Government Debt Management Department: TZS 6.18 trillion
      • Various Other Revenues (Votes 23 and 50): TZS 79.23 billion and TZS 950 million respectively​​.

    Projected Challenges for 2024/2025

    Given the economic context and the performance in 2023/2024, several challenges may impact the implementation of the budget for 2024/2025:

    1. Revenue Collection Shortfalls:
      • In 2023/2024, the ministry achieved 82% of its annual revenue target. If similar trends continue, it may face difficulties in meeting revenue projections for 2024/2025.
    2. Economic Growth Rate:
      • Economic growth influences revenue collection. Any slowdown in Tanzania’s economic growth could impact the ability to meet revenue targets. The projected economic growth needs to be robust to support revenue targets.
    3. Debt Servicing:
      • The Ministry spent TZS 8.48 trillion on servicing government debt, out of the allocated TZS 10.48 trillion. This high expenditure on debt servicing limits the funds available for development and other essential services​​.
    4. Expenditure Management:
      • Managing the allocated budget effectively across different sectors remains a challenge. In 2024/2025, the Ministry has proposed a total expenditure of TZS 18.17 trillion, with TZS 17.63 trillion for recurrent expenditure, including TZS 13.13 trillion for debt servicing and TZS 946.45 billion for salaries. Ensuring these funds are utilized effectively is crucial​​.
    5. External Factors:
      • External economic factors such as global commodity prices, inflation, and foreign exchange rates can impact both revenue collection and expenditure.
    6. Institutional Capacity:
      • The ability of various government departments to implement and manage the budget efficiently is essential. Any weaknesses in institutional capacity can result in budget implementation challenges.

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