Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. "Debt stock" is disbursed outstanding debt (DOD) plus interest arrears (USD 36,784.2M = 36,454.3 + 329.9). Use-of-funds and currency splits are of DOD (USD 36,454.3M). Sep-26 data are provisional.
00 — Overview & VerdictA Government-Led, Dollar-Based Debt Funding Budgets and Infrastructure, With a Growing Private Share
Borrower: the central government owes USD 30,695.7M (83.4%), but its share is falling as private-sector debt rose from USD 5,218.5M to USD 6,088.5M (+16.7%). Private borrowers also hold 75% of interest arrears (USD 249.3M of 329.9M).
Use of funds: 23.2% supports the balance of payments and budget; 38.6% finances infrastructure (transport and telecommunications 21.0%, energy and mining 12.8%, real estate and construction 4.8%); social welfare and education take 19.3%. The fastest growth was in energy and mining (+USD 622M), BoP support (+USD 469M) and finance (+USD 342M).
Currency: every dollar of the debt is foreign-currency, 65.3% in USD. Euro debt grew fastest among the majors in USD terms (+8.2%), so a weaker shilling and a stronger euro both raise the shilling burden.
Disbursed Debt by Borrower
Use of Funds, Sep-26
| External debt | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock (USD M) | 34,510.1 | 36,848.2 | 36,784.2 | +6.6% |
| Disbursed outstanding debt (USD M) | 34,327.8 | 36,536.8 | 36,454.3 | +6.2% |
| Central government share (%) | 84.9 | 83.5 | 83.4 | −1.5pp |
| Private sector share (%) | 15.1 | 16.5 | 16.6 | +1.5pp |
| US dollar share (%) | 65.9 | 65.0 | 65.3 | −0.6pp |
Table 0.1. Source: BoT, Tables 2.6.1, 2.6.4, A10; growth TICGL calc.
01 — By BorrowerGovernment Still Dominates, but the Private Sector Is Borrowing Faster
Monthly Disbursements by Borrower
Interest Arrears by Borrower
| USD million | Sep-25 | Share | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central government | 29,290.9 | 84.9% | 30,779.4 | 30,695.7 | 83.4% |
| o/w disbursed outstanding debt | 29,212.2 | 84.6% | 30,698.7 | 30,615.1 | 83.2% |
| o/w interest arrears | 78.7 | 0.2% | 80.7 | 80.6 | 0.2% |
| Private sector | 5,218.5 | 15.1% | 6,068.8 | 6,088.5 | 16.6% |
| o/w disbursed outstanding debt | 5,115.0 | 14.8% | 5,838.1 | 5,839.2 | 15.9% |
| o/w interest arrears | 103.6 | 0.3% | 230.6 | 249.3 | 0.7% |
| Public corporations | 0.6 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| External debt stock | 34,510.1 | 100% | 36,848.2 | 36,784.2 | 100% |
Table 1.1. Source: BoT, Table 2.6.1. TANESCO, ATCL, TRC, TPA, TFC and DAWASA have no outstanding external debt.
- Twelve-month disbursements: about USD 4,172M, of which central government USD 3,001.7M (71.9%) and private sector USD 1,170.3M (28.1%), above the private share of the stock (16.6%).
- Flows vs stock: net flows after principal repayment were about USD 2,257M against a DOD increase of USD 2,126.5M; the difference (−USD 130M) reflects valuation and other adjustments (TICGL calc.).
- September: disbursements USD 234.3M (central USD 226.1M, private USD 8.2M); debt service USD 171.9M.
Public corporations carry no direct external debt, so state-enterprise projects are funded through the central government balance sheet. Private borrowing is slowing (USD 8.2M in September) while its arrears are rising, a credit-quality signal worth tracking.
02 — By Use of FundsBudget Support and Infrastructure Take Over 60% of the Stock
Share of Disbursed Debt by Use of Funds
Change in Debt by Use of Funds
Largest Uses of Funds, Monthly
| Use of funds | Sep-25 % | Aug-26 % | Sep-26 % | Sep-26 USD M | Change USD M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoP and budget support | 23.2 | 23.5 | 23.2 | 8,441.6 | +469.4 |
| Transport and telecommunications | 21.7 | 20.8 | 21.0 | 7,644.3 | +211.9 |
| Social welfare and education | 19.7 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 7,036.4 | +273.2 |
| Energy and mining | 11.8 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 4,673.3 | +622.4 |
| Agriculture | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2,001.5 | +279.9 |
| Real estate and construction | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 1,737.2 | −106.0 |
| Finance and insurance | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 1,542.5 | +342.0 |
| Industries | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1,259.4 | +266.1 |
| Tourism | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 594.5 | −20.7 |
| Other | 5.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 1,523.6 | −211.8 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 36,454.3 | +2,126.5 |
Table 2.1. Source: BoT, Table 2.6.3 (shares) and Table A10 (amounts); changes TICGL calc.
The mix is shifting from budget and transport support towards productive sectors: energy and mining, agriculture, industries and finance grew faster than the stock (+6.2%), while tourism, construction and "other" shrank. BoP and budget support remains the single largest claim and carries no direct revenue stream.
03 — By CurrencyA Dollar Core, a Growing Euro and Yuan Share
Debt by Currency
Currency Shares of Disbursed Debt
Growth by Currency, Sep-25 to Sep-26
| Currency | Sep-25 % | Aug-26 % | Sep-26 % | Sep-25 USD M | Sep-26 USD M | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States dollar | 65.9 | 65.0 | 65.3 | 22,619.2 | 23,788.8 | +5.2% |
| Euro | 17.7 | 18.3 | 18.1 | 6,080.3 | 6,580.8 | +8.2% |
| Chinese yuan | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 2,224.1 | 2,450.2 | +10.2% |
| Other | 9.9 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 3,404.3 | 3,634.5 | +6.8% |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 34,327.8 | 36,454.3 | +6.2% |
Table 3.1. Source: BoT, Tables 2.6.4 and A10; growth TICGL calc. Non-USD balances are reported in USD equivalents, so exchange-rate moves between currencies are embedded in them.
USD-denominated debt matches the currency of most export earnings (gold, tourism) but euro and yuan debt (24.8%) adds cross-currency risk. The USD share slipped 0.6pp in a year as euro and yuan balances grew faster.
04 — Risk & CalculatorWhat a Currency Move Does to the Debt
- Shilling risk: with 100% of external debt in foreign currency, each 1% depreciation adds about TZS 0.96 trillion to DOD (USD 36,454.3M × TZS 2,642.3).
- Cross-currency risk: a 10% rise of the euro and yuan against the dollar would add about USD 903M to the debt.
- Borrower risk: rising private arrears (USD 249.3M) are a contingent exposure if private debt is guaranteed or systemic.
- Mitigants: concessional multilateral lenders (59.5% of the stock), reserves of USD 6.03B (4.3 months), and gold export earnings.
Currency shock calculator
Base: Sep-26 disbursed debt by currency (USD equivalents) and TZS 2,642.3 per USD. "Other" currencies held constant.
Tanzania's external debt is concentrated in one borrower (the central government), two currencies (USD and euro) and budget-and-infrastructure uses. Priorities: keep new borrowing concessional and project-linked, monitor private-sector arrears, and match currency exposure to export earnings.
How TICGL and TERI can help
TICGL/TERI supports debt-sustainability and FX-risk analysis, PPP structuring and bankable project preparation to reduce reliance on sovereign borrowing. Contact economist@ticgl.com.
05 — Sources & Data NotesMethod and Definitions
Source. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.6.1, 2.6.3, 2.6.4, A10) with Ministry of Finance data. Calculations. Growth, USD-equivalent shares, 12-month disbursement sums, net flows and sensitivities are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Table 2.6.1 shows the stock including interest arrears; Tables 2.6.3–2.6.4 and A10 use DOD. Aug-26 is revised (r) and Sep-26 provisional (p). The "other" use-of-funds category and "other" currencies are BoT residuals.
06 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How large is Tanzania's external debt?
USD 36,784.2 million at end-September 2026: disbursed outstanding debt of USD 36,454.3 million plus USD 329.9 million of interest arrears.
Who owes Tanzania's external debt?
The central government owes USD 30,695.7 million (83.4%) and the private sector USD 6,088.5 million (16.6%). Public corporations have no external debt.
What is the currency composition of Tanzania's external debt?
US dollar 65.3%, euro 18.1%, Chinese yuan 6.7% and other currencies 10.0% of disbursed outstanding debt.
What was external debt used for?
Balance of payments and budget support 23.2%, transport and telecommunications 21.0%, social welfare and education 19.3%, energy and mining 12.8%, and other sectors the remaining 23.7%.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Deni la nje la Tanzania, Septemba 2026: deni la nje ni USD milioni 36,784.2 (ongezeko la asilimia 6.6 kwa mwaka); deni lililotolewa na linalosubiri kulipwa (DOD) ni USD milioni 36,454.3.
Kwa mkopaji: Serikali Kuu inadaiwa USD milioni 30,695.7 (asilimia 83.4, ilikuwa 84.9); sekta binafsi USD milioni 6,088.5 (asilimia 16.6), ikiongezeka asilimia 16.7 kwa mwaka. Mashirika ya umma hayana deni la nje moja kwa moja. Malimbikizo ya riba ya sekta binafsi yamepanda hadi USD milioni 249.3.
Kwa matumizi ya fedha: msaada wa urari wa malipo na bajeti asilimia 23.2; usafirishaji na mawasiliano 21.0; ustawi wa jamii na elimu 19.3; nishati na madini 12.8; kilimo 5.5. Nishati na madini iliongezeka zaidi (USD milioni 622).
Kwa sarafu: dola ya Marekani asilimia 65.3, euro 18.1, yuan ya China 6.7 na nyingine 10.0. Deni lote ni la fedha za kigeni, kwa hiyo kushuka kwa thamani ya shilingi kunaongeza mzigo wake; kushuka kwa asilimia 1 kunaongeza takriban TZS trilioni 0.96.
Mapendekezo: kuendelea kukopa kwa masharti nafuu na kwa miradi mahususi, kufuatilia malimbikizo ya sekta binafsi, na kulinganisha sarafu za madeni na mapato ya mauzo ya nje.
Chanzo: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Wasiliana: economist@ticgl.com.