Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. "Estimate" is the July 2026 monthly estimate in BoT Table A2; "budget" is the FY2026/27 annual budget. One month is a small and seasonal sample, so run-rates are illustrative. Actual 2026 figures are provisional.
00 — Overview & VerdictStrong Collections, Weaker Spending Quality
Revenue beat the estimate by TZS 304.8 billion (9.5%). Central government revenue was TZS 3,354.9 billion (95.8% of the total). Taxes on imports (+14.0% vs estimate) and on local goods and services (+40.7%) more than offset income tax, which fell 5.3% short.
Spending grew but its quality weakened. Recurrent spending was 10.3% above estimate, driven by interest (+33.7%; domestic interest nearly doubled) and other goods and services (+24.5%). Wages (−7.2%) and development (−7.4%) came in below plan; development was less than half of July 2025.
The surplus is mostly financing and timing. The balance after grants was only TZS 5.4 billion; the overall surplus of TZS 486.2 billion reflects cash adjustments of TZS 476.2 billion, and program loans of TZS 1,164.1 billion allowed repayment of TZS 1,864.5 billion of bank debt.
July 2026: Estimate vs Actual
Fiscal Ratios, FY2018/19–2025/26
Fiscal summary, July 2026
| TZS billion | Budget 2026/27 | Estimate | Actual | vs estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue (incl. LGAs) | 46,228.2 | 3,198.4 | 3,502.2 | +9.5% |
| Central government revenue | 44,262.0 | 3,054.7 | 3,354.9 | +9.8% |
| Total expenditure | 54,498.6 | 3,376.9 | 3,572.5 | +5.8% |
| Recurrent | 35,195.4 | 2,521.0 | 2,779.6 | +10.3% |
| Development and net lending | 19,303.2 | 855.9 | 792.9 | −7.4% |
| Balance before grants | −8,270.4 | −178.6 | −70.3 | +108.3bn |
| Overall balance | −7,707.3 | −75.1 | 486.2 | +561.3bn |
Table 0.1. Source: BoT, Table A2 (Ministry of Finance); variances TICGL calc.
01 — RevenueWhere the Extra TZS 300 Billion Came From
Revenue by Source, July
Variance vs Estimate, by Source
July Collections as % of FY2026/27 Budget
| TZS billion | Jul-25 | Estimate | Jul-26 | vs est. | y/y | Annual budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taxes on imports | 958.8 | 1,020.5 | 1,163.4 | +14.0% | +21.3% | 13,473.7 |
| Income taxes | 795.2 | 910.6 | 862.6 | −5.3% | +8.5% | 14,475.7 |
| Taxes on local goods and services | 446.1 | 453.7 | 638.2 | +40.7% | +43.1% | 6,826.9 |
| Other taxes | 145.7 | 189.8 | 212.8 | +12.1% | +46.1% | 2,470.1 |
| Tax revenue | 2,345.8 | 2,574.5 | 2,877.0 | +11.7% | +22.6% | 37,246.4 |
| Non-tax revenue | 431.8 | 480.2 | 477.9 | −0.5% | +10.7% | 7,015.6 |
| LGA own sources | n/a | 143.7 | 147.3 | +2.5% | n/a | 1,966.2 |
| Grants | 181.6 | 103.5 | 75.7 | −26.8% | −58.3% | 563.1 |
Table 1.1. Source: BoT, Table A2 and Chart 2.5.1; July 2025 tax revenue is the sum of its four components (TICGL calc.). The BoT text states tax revenue exceeded target by 9.8%; Table A2 implies +11.7% (9.8% matches central government revenue).
Growth leans on trade and consumption taxes: imports plus local goods and services supplied 62.6% of tax revenue (1,801.6 of 2,877.0). Income tax, the most stable base, grew 8.5% y/y but undershot its estimate. Grants have shrunk to 2% of revenue plus grants, reducing external cushions.
02 — ExpenditureInterest Rises, Development Slips
Expenditure by Category, July
Variance vs Estimate, by Category
Interest Payments: Domestic vs Foreign
July Spending as % of FY2026/27 Budget
| TZS billion | Jul-25 | Estimate | Jul-26 | vs est. | Share of spending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wages and salaries | 1,066.3 | 1,254.9 | 1,164.4 | −7.2% | 32.6% |
| Interest payments | 378.4 | 422.5 | 564.9 | +33.7% | 15.8% |
| o/w domestic | n/a | 192.2 | 383.8 | +99.7% | 10.7% |
| o/w foreign | n/a | 230.3 | 181.1 | −21.4% | 5.1% |
| Other goods, services, transfers | 927.0 | 843.6 | 1,050.2 | +24.5% | 29.4% |
| Development and net lending | 1,634.4 | 855.9 | 792.9 | −7.4% | 22.2% |
| o/w local | n/a | 519.3 | 521.0 | +0.3% | 14.6% |
| o/w foreign | n/a | 336.7 | 271.9 | −19.2% | 7.6% |
| Total expenditure | n/a | 3,376.9 | 3,572.5 | +5.8% | 100% |
Table 2.1. Source: BoT, Table A2 and Chart 2.5.2 (July 2025 sub-items not published); shares and variances TICGL calc. July 2025 total is not shown because the chart omits some items.
Domestic interest took 9.5% of its annual budget (TZS 4,030.3bn) in one month, a sign of heavy domestic debt service (domestic debt TZS 41.1tn). Development spending fell 51.5% y/y and foreign-financed projects ran 19.2% below plan, while locally funded projects stayed on plan.
03 — Balance & FinancingA Cash Surplus Built on Program Loans and Adjustments
Fiscal Balances, July
Financing Mix, July
Government Securities Issued for Financing
| TZS billion | Budget | Estimate | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance after grants | −7,707.3 | −75.1 | 5.4 |
| Adjustments to cash and other items | 0.0 | 0.0 | 476.2 |
| Overall balance | −7,707.3 | −75.1 | 486.2 |
| Foreign loans (gross) | 8,985.2 | 233.2 | 1,360.3 |
| o/w program loans | 1,787.7 | 0.0 | 1,164.1 |
| o/w project loans | 7,141.0 | 233.2 | 196.2 |
| Foreign amortization | −4,550.2 | −81.8 | −265.5 |
| Domestic financing (net) | 3,272.3 | −76.3 | −1,581.0 |
| o/w bank borrowing | 2,056.4 | −63.7 | −1,864.5 |
| o/w non-bank (net) | 1,216.0 | −12.6 | 283.5 |
Table 3.1. Source: BoT, Table A2. Negative financing means repayment or build-up of deposits.
Program loans (TZS 1,164.1bn, 65% of the annual program-loan budget) arrived in July and were used to repay bank debt (TZS 1,864.5bn), easing domestic liquidity but front-loading external borrowing. The FY2026/27 budget deficit after grants is TZS 7.7tn, financed 58% by foreign sources (TZS 4.4tn net).
04 — Outlook & CalculatorWhat the First Month Signals for FY2026/27
- Revenue: the budget requires total revenue of TZS 46.2tn (17.2% of GDP in 2025/26 vs 13.8% in 2018/19). A month at 3.5tn annualises to about 42.0tn, below budget, so seasonal strength must persist.
- Interest: domestic interest and rising domestic debt (TZS 41.1tn) are the main spending risk; policy rates at 6.25% add to bill costs.
- Development: 4.1% of the annual development budget was spent in July; foreign-financed projects need project-loan disbursements (only 2.7% of the annual budget so far).
- Offsets: robust import taxes, gold exports, and foreign access to bonds (July 2026 reform) may widen the financing base.
Zanzibar, September 2026
| TZS billion | Actual | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Resource envelope | 210.4 | 92.8% of monthly target |
| Domestic revenue | 200.9 | 92.9% of target; tax 173.7 (91.6%) |
| Non-tax revenue | 27.3 | 2.4% above target |
| Expenditure | 494.5 | Development 355.9 (72%), 77.8% domestically financed |
Table 4.1. Source: BoT, Section 3.2 (Ministry of Finance and Planning, Zanzibar).
Budget run-rate calculator
Defaults: central government revenue, July 2026 (one month), against the FY2026/27 budget. Illustrative only, because monthly flows are seasonal.
Collections are strong but trade-tax dependent, and spending is shifting toward debt service. Priorities: broaden income and local taxes, contain domestic interest through longer-tenor, lower-cost financing, and protect foreign-financed development disbursements.
How TICGL and TERI can help
TICGL/TERI supports PPP structuring, fiscal-risk and value-for-money analysis, and revenue and budget modelling. Contact economist@ticgl.com.
05 — Sources & Data NotesMethod and Definitions
Source. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Table A2 Central Government Operations, cheques issued, Tanzania Mainland; Table A1; Charts 2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.6.2; Section 3.2 for Zanzibar). Calculations. Variances, shares of budget, run-rates and ratios are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. Table A2 covers July 2026 only; "Estimate" is the monthly estimate. Annualising one month (×12) ignores seasonality and is for illustration. Chart 2.5.2's July 2025 actuals are used where Table A2 has no prior-year column. Actual 2026 data are provisional. Total expenditure excludes amortization and expenditure float.
06 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How much revenue did Tanzania collect in July 2026?
Total revenue including local government was TZS 3,502.2 billion, 9.5% above the TZS 3,198.4 billion estimate. Central government revenue was TZS 3,354.9 billion, 95.8% of the total.
How much did the government spend in July 2026?
Total expenditure was TZS 3,572.5 billion: recurrent TZS 2,779.6 billion and development TZS 792.9 billion.
Why is interest spending a concern?
Interest payments were TZS 564.9 billion, 33.7% above plan and 49% above July 2025. Domestic interest alone, TZS 383.8 billion, was nearly double its estimate.
Did Tanzania run a deficit in July 2026?
No. Before grants the balance was a deficit of TZS 70.3 billion, after grants a surplus of TZS 5.4 billion, and the overall balance a surplus of TZS 486.2 billion after cash adjustments of TZS 476.2 billion.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Mapato na matumizi ya Serikali Kuu, Julai 2026 (mwezi wa kwanza wa mwaka wa fedha 2026/27): mapato yamevuka lengo, lakini matumizi yanaelekea zaidi kwenye riba.
Mapato: jumla ya mapato TZS bilioni 3,502.2, juu ya lengo kwa asilimia 9.5. Mapato ya Serikali Kuu ni TZS bilioni 3,354.9 (asilimia 95.8). Kodi za bidhaa za nje (+14.0%) na bidhaa na huduma za ndani (+40.7%) zilichangia zaidi; kodi ya mapato ilikuwa chini ya lengo kwa asilimia 5.3. Misaada ilishuka hadi TZS bilioni 75.7.
Matumizi: jumla TZS bilioni 3,572.5; matumizi ya kawaida bilioni 2,779.6 na ya maendeleo bilioni 792.9 (chini ya lengo kwa asilimia 7.4 na chini ya Julai 2025 kwa asilimia 51.5). Malipo ya riba yalikuwa bilioni 564.9, juu ya mpango kwa asilimia 33.7; riba ya ndani karibu maradufu.
Urari: upungufu kabla ya misaada bilioni 70.3; ziada ya jumla bilioni 486.2 inatokana zaidi na marekebisho ya fedha taslimu (bilioni 476.2) na mikopo ya programu (bilioni 1,164.1), iliyotumika kulipa madeni ya benki (bilioni 1,864.5).
Mapendekezo: kupanua wigo wa kodi ya mapato na ya ndani, kudhibiti gharama za riba kwa kukopa kwa muda mrefu na kwa gharama nafuu, na kulinda utoaji wa fedha za miradi ya maendeleo.
Chanzo: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Wasiliana: economist@ticgl.com.