Prepared by TERI for research and strategic-information purposes; not investment, legal, tax or financial advice. Rates are BoT bank-survey averages for domestic currency unless labelled foreign currency. "pp" = percentage points.
00 — Overview & VerdictRates Are Sticky and High: Lending Barely Responds to Policy, Deposits Are Catching Up
Lending rates are high and slow-moving. The overall lending rate was 15.18% in September 2025 and 15.54% a year later (+0.36pp), despite a 0.50pp rise in the policy rate. Negotiated rates for prime borrowers fell 0.81pp to 12.03%.
Deposit rates rose faster. Overall time deposits climbed from 8.50% to 9.02% (+0.53pp), but savings accounts still pay only 2.95%, below the 4.3% inflation rate.
Credit is not rate-constrained. Private credit expanded 34.2%, led by transport and communication (+78.3%), trade (+52.5%) and agriculture (+41.9%). Banks also hold more government securities (TZS 12.1 trillion, +38.2% y/y), earning 4.85% on bills and 9.5–11.5% on bonds.
Overall Lending vs Deposit Rates
Spread: Lending Less Time Deposit Rate
Key rates
| Rate (%) | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall lending rate | 15.18 | 15.05 | 15.54 | +0.36pp |
| Negotiated lending rate | 12.84 | 11.93 | 12.03 | −0.81pp |
| Overall time deposit rate | 8.50 | 8.78 | 9.03 | +0.53pp |
| 12-month deposit rate | 9.84 | 9.36 | 9.59 | −0.25pp |
| Savings deposit rate | 2.92 | 2.77 | 2.95 | +0.03pp |
| Repo rate (CBR) | 4.79 | 6.25 | 6.25 | +1.46pp |
Table 0.1. Source: BoT, Table A4 (Table 2.3.1 text gives the overall time deposit rate as 9.02%; Table A4 shows 9.03%). Changes are TICGL calc.
- Tenor matters: 6-month deposits pay the most (10.47%); 24-month deposits pay 8.81%.
- Foreign currency is cheaper: FX lending 9.17%, FX time deposits 4.14%.
- September jump: lending rates in the 2–3 and 3–5 year bands rose about 1pp in one month.
01 — Lending RatesWhat Borrowers Pay, by Tenor, Type and Currency
Lending Rates by Maturity
Standard vs Negotiated Lending Rate
Lending Rate by Tenor: Sep-25 vs Sep-26
| Lending rate (%) | Sep-25 | Jun-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short-term (up to 1 year) | 15.52 | 15.38 | 15.31 | 15.36 |
| Medium-term (1–2 years) | 16.26 | 17.10 | 16.53 | 16.88 |
| Medium-term (2–3 years) | 15.19 | 15.19 | 15.02 | 16.02 |
| Long-term (3–5 years) | 14.26 | 14.38 | 14.44 | 15.14 |
| Term loans (over 5 years) | 14.66 | 14.03 | 13.93 | 14.31 |
| Foreign currency, overall | 8.43 | 9.03 | 8.96 | 9.17 |
Table 1.1. Source: BoT, Table A4.
Long-term and term loans (over 5 years) are cheaper than short-term loans, a flat-to-inverted pattern that rewards long projects, but the September repricing shows banks passing the CBR increase into 2–5 year loans first. Long-term lending also fell from 17.4% (2018) to 14.4% (2025) on an annual basis.
02 — Deposit Rates & SpreadWhat Savers Earn, and Who Captures the Margin
Deposit Rates by Type
Time Deposit Rates by Term
Long-Term Lending vs 12-Month Deposit Rate, 2018–2025
| Deposit rate (%) | Sep-25 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Real rate (4.3% inflation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savings | 2.92 | 2.77 | 2.95 | −1.35pp |
| Overall time deposits | 8.50 | 8.78 | 9.03 | +4.7pp |
| 12 months | 9.84 | 9.36 | 9.59 | +5.3pp |
| Negotiated | 11.05 | 11.06 | 11.00 | +6.7pp |
| Foreign currency time deposits | 3.94 | 4.12 | 4.14 | n/a |
Table 2.1. Source: BoT, Table A4; real rates TICGL calc. (nominal less headline inflation 4.3%).
The short-term spread (lending less deposit, BoT measure) narrowed from 5.95pp to 5.78pp in September, but the overall lending-to-time-deposit gap is 6.52pp and the gap to savings is 12.6pp. Small savers carry negative real returns while negotiated depositors earn about 6.7%.
03 — Policy & CreditTransmission from the CBR and Government Securities to Bank Rates
Policy, Interbank and T-Bill Rates vs Lending Rate
Treasury Bond Yield Curve
Annual Credit Growth by Sector
Share of Bank Credit, Sep-26
| Credit and money | Sep-25 | Sep-26 |
|---|---|---|
| Private credit stock (TZS bn) | 41,999.9 | 56,359.4 |
| Private credit growth, y/y (%) | 16.1 | 34.2 |
| M3 growth, y/y (%) | 20.4 | 25.9 |
| Securities held by banks (TZS bn) | 8,723.1 | 12,056.9 |
| Reverse repo transactions (TZS bn) | n/a | 2,624.5 |
Table 3.1. Source: BoT, Tables 2.2.1 and text; securities held by banks +38.2% y/y.
The CBR rose 1.46pp over the year but bank lending rates moved 0.36pp: the policy rate sets a floor, while the 15% lending band reflects credit risk, funding costs and ample liquidity (reverse repo demand fell). The September bump in 2–5 year loan rates suggests delayed pass-through.
04 — Outlook & CalculatorWhat to Expect and What It Costs
- Upward pressure: BoT expects inflation to stay elevated (oil at USD 102.3, El Niño rains) and signals a tighter stance if second-round effects persist. The CBR is reviewed quarterly.
- Offsets: ample liquidity, surplus 2025/26 food harvest, and the opening of government securities to foreign investors (July 2026) could lower yields and funding costs over time.
- Credit quality: rapid growth in transport, trade and mining credit warrants monitoring of non-performing loans (not covered in the review).
- For borrowers: negotiated rates around 12% show that credit quality and collateral can cut costs by about 3.5pp.
Loan cost calculator
Defaults: TZS 100 million, overall lending rate vs negotiated rate (Sep-26), 5 years, monthly repayment (annuity).
Rates are high but stable; the pressure point is pass-through and access. Priorities: widen access to negotiated-rate credit through credit guarantees and registries, lift real returns for small savers, and let long-term financing (over 5 years, 14.3%) fund infrastructure and PPP projects.
How TICGL and TERI can help
TICGL/TERI builds financial models, cost-of-capital and DSCR analysis, and bankable PPP project structures. Contact economist@ticgl.com.
05 — Sources & Data NotesMethod and Definitions
Source. Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, October 2026 (Tables 2.2.1, 2.2.2, 2.3.1, A1, A4; Chart 2.2.6; text on Treasury auctions and the Monetary Policy Committee's July 2026 decision). Calculations. Spreads, real rates (nominal less headline inflation of 4.3%), changes and loan costs are TICGL/TERI arithmetic. The "short-term spread" quoted by BoT differs from the overall lending-less-time-deposit gap used here. Annual averages in Table A1 differ from monthly survey rates. Data marked provisional may be revised. Credit shares cover select activities only.
06 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What is the lending rate in Tanzania in September 2026?
The overall lending rate was 15.54%, up from 15.05% in August. Negotiated rates charged to prime borrowers were 12.03%.
What are Tanzania's deposit rates?
The overall time deposit rate was 9.02%, the 12-month deposit rate 9.59%, the negotiated deposit rate 11.00% and the savings rate 2.95%.
What is the Central Bank Rate?
The CBR is 6.25% for the quarter ending September 2026, raised from 5.75% in July to contain second-round inflation pressures.
Why does credit grow fast despite high rates?
Private sector credit grew 34.2% year on year in September 2026, driven by transport and communication (78.3%), trade (52.5%) and agriculture (41.9%), as business demand for finance outran the cost of borrowing.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Viwango vya riba Tanzania, Septemba 2026: riba ya mikopo ni ya juu na haibadiliki haraka, wakati riba za amana zinaongezeka polepole.
Mikopo: riba ya jumla ya mikopo ilipanda hadi asilimia 15.54 (Agosti 15.05); riba ya mikopo ya majadiliano kwa wakopaji wakubwa ni asilimia 12.03. Mikopo ya miaka 1–2 ni ghali zaidi (16.88%).
Amana: riba ya jumla ya amana za muda asilimia 9.02, amana za miezi 12 asilimia 9.59, amana za majadiliano asilimia 11.00, na akiba asilimia 2.95, chini ya mfumuko wa bei wa asilimia 4.3.
Sera: Kiwango cha Benki Kuu (CBR) kimepandishwa hadi asilimia 6.25. Hata hivyo, mikopo kwa sekta binafsi imekua asilimia 34.2, ikiongozwa na usafirishaji na mawasiliano (78.3%), biashara (52.5%) na kilimo (41.9%).
Mapendekezo: kupanua upatikanaji wa mikopo ya riba nafuu kupitia dhamana za mikopo, kuongeza faida halisi kwa wanaoweka akiba ndogo, na kuhimiza mikopo ya muda mrefu kwa miradi ya miundombinu na PPP.
Chanzo: BoT Monthly Economic Review, Oktoba 2026; mahesabu ya TICGL/TERI. Wasiliana: economist@ticgl.com.