00 — OverviewExecutive Summary

Tanzania entered the second half of 2026 with a broad-based expansion and a new price shock. Nominal GDP reached TZS 234.1 trillion in 2025 (+10.4%), tax collections beat their target by 7.1%, bank credit grew 22.3%, gold pushed mineral recovery up 43.3% to USD 5.6 billion, and a 133% food self-sufficiency ratio gives the country a cushion that most of its neighbours lack. The weak spots are visible too: fuel pump prices jumped from around TZS 2,800-2,900 a litre in February 2026 to around TZS 4,200-4,400 by June 2026 (read from Chart 1.2 of the report), headline inflation re-accelerated in five of six zones, Dar es Salaam inflation (6.2%) and Southern Highlands inflation (8.0%) are above the 3-5% band, and growth is concentrated in a few places and a few commodities.

Key findings

• Growth is broad but shallow in per-capita terms. Nominal GDP per capita reached TZS 3.54 million in 2025 (+7.4%), but Dar es Salaam (TZS 6.78 m) is 3.9 times Simiyu region (TZS 1.74 m) and the Central, Lake and South Eastern zones remain below the national average.
• Prices are the main near-term risk. Pump prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene rose 4.5%, 7.8% and 0.4% on annual averages, but monthly data show a sharp jump in April-June 2026 that fed through to zonal CPI: Central inflation went from 2.6% (Mar-26) to 6.6% (Apr-26) and Southern Highlands from 2.7% to 7.6%.
• Food security is strong on paper, uneven in practice. National production reached 25.2 million tonnes (SSR 133%), yet Central and Southern Highlands production fell 8.8% and 11.3%, Lake zone cereals are in deficit (SSR 96%) and NFRA purchases fell 68.5% to 137,612 tonnes.
• Gold is a price story. Gold recovery rose 57.3% to USD 4.83 bn on a 5.7% volume gain; TICGL calc. shows roughly 90% of the increase came from higher unit values. Non-gold minerals fell 8.2%.
• Manufacturing and trade are surging from a narrow base. Manufactured goods grew 18.9% (cured tobacco +65.8%, wheat flour +57.0%) and port cargo grew 26.6%, but 47.4% of factory output is still in Dar es Salaam and 85.4% of cargo passes through Dar es Salaam port.
• The power system has changed shape. Hydro rose from 33.5% of generation in 2023/24 to 67.0% in 2025/26 as Julius Nyerere output lifted South Eastern zone to 46.8% of national generation, while natural-gas production is 22.1% below its 2022/23 level.
• Finance is deepening, but the money sits in Dar es Salaam. Dar es Salaam holds 62.8% of deposits at a loan-to-deposit ratio of 75%, while Southern Highlands (153%), Central (139%) and South Eastern (128%) lend more than they collect locally.
• The tax base is geographically narrow. Dar es Salaam collects 88.2% of TRA revenue; direct taxes were the fastest-growing category (+32.5%).

01 — Growth & ZonesWho Produces Tanzania's Output? GDP by Zone and Region

The Bank of Tanzania report groups the 26 mainland regions into six economic zones. Nominal GDP increased in every zone in 2025, from TZS 211.97 trillion to TZS 234.10 trillion, with Lake zone the largest block (26.1% of output) followed by Northern (17.2%) and Dar es Salaam (17.0%). Because zones differ in size, the per-capita and regional views below matter more for investment screening than the headline totals.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics via Bank of Tanzania, Table 1.1; shares and growth rates are TICGL calc. Data revised 2021-2024; p = provisional.

1.1 Per-capita output and derived population

Dividing zonal GDP by zonal GDP per capita gives an implied population of about 66.0 million for mainland Tanzania in 2025. Lake zone holds 21.1 million people (32% of the total) but produces only 26.1% of GDP, which is why its per-capita output (TZS 2.89 m) sits 18% below the national average of TZS 3.54 m. Dar es Salaam, with 5.9 million people (8.9%), produces 17.0% of GDP and reaches TZS 6.78 m per head, 1.91 times the national average.

Source: BoT Table 1.2; implied population = GDP / GDP per capita (TICGL calc.); index = zone GDP per capita as a percentage of the national figure.

1.2 The regional picture: 26 regions, 10 carry 60% of output

Annexes 1 and 2 of the report give regional GDP. Output is concentrated: the five largest regions (Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Mbeya, Morogoro, Arusha) produce 39.3% of mainland GDP and the ten largest 60.3%, while the ten smallest produce 20.2%. Growth in 2025 was fastest in Simiyu (+14.7%), Njombe (+13.9%), Pwani (+13.5%), Kagera (+12.4%) and Songwe (+11.8%), and slowest in Dodoma and Ruvuma (+8.5% each). Per-capita output ranges from TZS 6.78 m in Dar es Salaam, followed by Iringa (TZS 5.71 m), Kilimanjaro (TZS 5.20 m) and Mbeya (TZS 5.06 m), to TZS 1.74 m in Simiyu and TZS 1.85 m in Kagera.

Full regional table

Source: NBS via BoT Annexes 1 and 2; shares, growth and index are TICGL calc. Regional GDP excludes Zanzibar.

02 — Prices & InflationInflation, Food Prices and Fuel: The 2026 Price Shock

Headline inflation averaged 3.6% nationally in 2025/26, up from 3.1% in 2024/25 and still inside the 3-5% target range. Averages hide the trend, however. Month by month, year-on-year inflation was drifting up through the first half of 2026 and then jumped in April-June, when pump prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene rose sharply on higher global oil prices amid Middle East tensions. By June 2026 inflation was above 5% in Dar es Salaam (6.2%), Central (5.2%) and Southern Highlands (8.0%), within the band in Lake (3.0%) and Northern (3.3%), and below it in South Eastern (2.6%).

Source: National Bureau of Statistics via Bank of Tanzania, Table 1.3. Zonal CPIs use different weights, so a simple average of zones is not the national rate.

Source: BoT Annex 4 (twelve-month changes). Band status is TICGL classification against the 3-5% national target range.

2.1 Why inflation jumped in April 2026: a price shock on top of a low base

Annex 3 gives the headline CPI index for each zone, which lets us split the April 2026 jump in year-on-year inflation into two parts: the actual monthly price rise in April 2026, and a base effect because prices fell in April 2025 (in Central and Southern Highlands the index dropped 1.5% and 3.2% in that month). In Central the monthly rise was 2.3% and the base effect added a further 1.5 percentage points; in Southern Highlands the figures are 1.4% and 3.2 points. Base effects work in both directions: the April 2026 step is now in the index, so year-on-year inflation stays elevated until April 2027 unless prices fall back, which is the core of the six-month outlook in Tab 7.

2.2 Wholesale food prices

Average wholesale prices of selected food crops rose in 2025/26 for every crop except beans (Table 1.4), reflecting depletion of household stocks from the 2024/25 season and higher transport costs. Finger millet (+35.8%), bulrush millet (+14.8%) and rice (+12.6%) rose most. Maize, the staple that matters most for household budgets, rose 9.9% to TZS 83,236 per 100 kg, back to its 2023/24 level after a fall in 2024/25.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade via BoT Table 1.4; change is TICGL calc. Simple average of zonal prices where available.

2.3 Fuel pump prices

Annual average pump prices rose in 2025/26: petrol +4.5% to TZS 3,202 a litre, diesel +7.8% to TZS 3,194 and kerosene +0.4% to TZS 3,354. Those averages understate the 2026 shock. Chart 1.2 of the report shows pump prices running at about TZS 2,800-3,000 a litre through February 2026 and then climbing to roughly TZS 4,200-4,400 by June 2026 in every zone, with petrol, diesel and kerosene converging. Diesel, the transport and farm-machinery fuel, rose most (+9.2% in South Eastern and +8.1% in Lake and Northern on annual averages).

Source: BoT Table 1.5 (National Bureau of Statistics).

03 — Food, Agriculture & LivestockFood Security, Cash Crops, Livestock, Fish and Forests

Food and agriculture are where the 2025/26 numbers look best and where the regional detail is most uneven. National food-crop production is estimated at 25.2 million tonnes (16.4 m tonnes of cereals and 8.8 m of non-cereals), 6% above the previous season, on favourable long rains, subsidised fertiliser, extension services and pest-control campaigns, and on a larger cultivated area (12.06 million hectares against 11.86 million). Production exceeds 2026/27 food requirements by 6.3 million tonnes, lifting the self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) to 133% from 128%.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture via BoT Table 2.1; change is TICGL calc.; surplus = 2025/26 production less 2026/27 requirement, as published. SSR 0-99% = inadequate, 100-119% = adequate, 120% and above = surplus.

3.1 National Food Reserve Agency stocks

NFRA closing stocks of maize and paddy rose 2.5% to 489,998 tonnes, but the flow behind that figure changed sharply: purchases fell 68.5% to 137,612 tonnes (from 436,382 t) and releases to private traders and the World Food Programme fell to 125,537 tonnes (from 298,937 t). About 95% of the stock sits in two zones, Southern Highlands (278,216 t) and South Eastern (187,404 t), against only 19,721 t in Dar es Salaam, where requirements are largest.

Source: National Food Reserve Agency via BoT Table 2.2. Stock excludes food in transit.

3.2 Cash crops

Procurement rose for cashew nuts (+6.9% to 439,639 t, with South Eastern zone handling 437,459 t), coffee (+2.7%), cotton (+33.7%) and tobacco (+28.4%), and fell for sisal (-24.1%) and tea (-15.2%). The report attributes the gains to higher global prices, favourable weather, input distribution and extension services, and the losses to weak global demand and weather-affected processing for sisal.

Source: respective crop boards via BoT Table 3.1; r = revised, p = provisional.

3.3 Livestock, hides, fish and forest products

Livestock traded in registered markets grew 16.5% to TZS 3,505.2 billion, with cattle at 88.6% of value. Central zone is the largest market (34.4% of value, after a 27.9% rise) ahead of Lake (23.6%) and Northern (18.0%), and Northern (-1.2%) was the only zone to fall. Raw hides and skins rose 12.1% to TZS 13.2 billion, led by Dar es Salaam (TZS 3.84 bn, 29.1%). Fish sold stayed flat in value at TZS 656.4 billion but quantity fell 12.6% to 85,237 tonnes, so the implied price per tonne rose 13.5% to TZS 7.7 million. Forest-product value rose 16.6% to TZS 1,306 billion, with Southern Highlands at 95.7% of the total.

Source: Regional Administrative Secretary Offices via BoT Table 3.2. Species 2025/26: cattle TZS 3,107.0 bn (3.64 m head), goats TZS 273.6 bn (2.30 m head), sheep TZS 124.6 bn (1.46 m head).

Source: Regional Administrative Secretary Offices via BoT Table 3.4. Declines in Dar es Salaam and South Eastern were attributed to strong winds in the Indian Ocean, in Central to lower water levels in Singida and Morogoro.

04 — Industry, Mining & EnergyManufacturing, Gold and Minerals, Electricity and Gas

This tab covers the three sectors that move the external accounts and the power bill: manufacturing, mining and energy. All three grew in 2025/26, but each is concentrated in one zone and one or two products, and each has a clear six-month swing factor.

4.1 Manufacturing

The value of selected manufactured products grew 18.9% to TZS 21,250.7 billion, on stronger domestic and external demand. Growth was broad-based across zones except Northern (-13.2%, on plastics, textiles, coffee and tea products), and Dar es Salaam, with 47.4% of the total, rose 33.5%. Cured tobacco (+65.8%), wheat flour (+57.0%), vegetable oils and fats (+52.2%), cigarettes (+52.1%) and ceramics (+26.4%) grew fastest; textiles (-6.6%), plastic articles (-25.0%) and corrugated iron sheets (-7.6%) fell. Six products (cured tobacco, wheat flour, bottled beer, beverages, vegetable oils and cigarettes) account for 44.7% of value.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics and respective industries, BoT Table 3.6a.

Source: BoT Table 3.6b; share of growth = product increase / total increase (TICGL calc., agrees with the BoT contribution column).

4.2 Mining

The value of mineral recovery rose 43.3% to USD 5,598.5 million, led by gold (USD 4,833.5 m, 86.3% of the total). The report attributes the gold gain to quantity and price: volume rose 5.7% to 54.5 tonnes, helped by small-scale miners selling through the Bank of Tanzania domestic gold purchase programme and the Mining (Technical Support for Small Scale Miners) Regulations, 2025, while world gold prices rose 50.4% to an average USD 4,249.6 per troy ounce on safe-haven demand. TICGL calc. on the report data shows the implied unit value of recovered gold rose 48.7%, so about USD 1.58 billion of the USD 1.76 billion increase (90%) is price and only USD 0.18 billion is volume. Everything else fell: coal -24.9%, diamond -21.1%, gemstones -62.4% and tanzanite -62.1%, while limestone (+80.1%), graphite (+39.9%) and nickel (USD 13.3 m from 1.8 m) grew from small bases.

Source: Mining Commission via BoT Table 3.7a (selected minerals shown; total includes copper, salt and other items). "---" = change above 100% or not meaningful.

Mineral market centres show the same picture in shillings: minerals traded in registered markets rose 73.3% to TZS 6,852.1 billion, with gold 98% of the total, Lake zone 58.6% and Southern Highlands 28.1%. Central (+112%), South Eastern (+104%) and Southern Highlands (+84%) grew fastest from smaller bases, while Dar es Salaam (tanzanite and gemstones) fell 56.5%.

4.3 Energy

Domestic electricity generation grew 10.4% to 14,080.1 GWh as hydro output (Julius Nyerere, Mtera, Kidatu and New Pangani Falls) and new solar plants in Lake zone (Ushetu, Bukombe, Kishapu) came on stream. The shape of the system has changed: hydro supplied 67.0% of generation in 2025/26 against 33.5% two years earlier, South Eastern zone now produces 46.8% of the national total (from 8.3% in 2023/24), and Dar es Salaam, once 63.6% of generation, is down to 30.5%. Imports more than doubled to 613.0 GWh (4.4% of supply), mainly from Kenya (350.8 GWh) after the 400 kV interconnector was energised in December 2024, while exports to Kenya fell 79.1% to 7.0 GWh.

Source: TANESCO via BoT Table 3.11. Imported electricity 2025/26: Kenya 350.8 GWh, Uganda 191.4 GWh, Zambia 70.7 GWh (total 613.0 GWh).

Natural gas moved the other way. Production rose 3.2% to 63,440.5 million standard cubic feet in 2025/26, but is 22.1% below its 2022/23 level because Songo Songo output has fallen from 47,565 to 26,544 MMSCF; Mnazi Bay (+9.7%) now supplies 58.2% of production. Consumption rose 3.6% to 61,956.7 MMSCF: power plants (70.1% of use) burned 3.5% less, as hydro displaced gas, while industry took 19.9% more (17,126 MMSCF) and compressed natural gas for vehicles more than doubled to 1,393 MMSCF as the CNG fleet grew from 7,000 to 16,354 vehicles and filling stations from 9 to 19.

05 — Tourism, Trade & LogisticsVisitors, Cross-Border Trade, Ports and Airports

Trade, tourism and logistics are the external-facing engines of the 2025/26 expansion. Park visitors rose 7.5% to 2.45 million and park earnings 8.4% to TZS 823.9 billion; the cross-border trade surplus widened 80.9% to TZS 11.8 trillion as gold, rough diamonds and fish exports through the Lake zone surged; port cargo grew 26.6% to 39.4 million tonnes; and air passengers rose 8.8% to 5.25 million.

5.1 Tourism

Growth came entirely from non-resident visitors (+9.9% to 1.87 million, 76.5% of the total). Resident visitors were flat (+0.3% to 575,420) and remain 46.5% below the 2022/23 level of 1.08 million, so domestic tourism has not recovered. Earnings per visitor were flat (TZS 336,400, +0.9%), which means the 8.4% earnings gain is a volume story rather than a pricing story. Northern zone takes 64.9% of visitors and 59.7% of earnings, but Lake zone earns far more per visitor (TZS 533,300 against TZS 309,100 in the Northern zone), reflecting its mix of entry and other fees. Earnings here are park and Ngorongoro fee revenue, not total tourism receipts.

Source: TANAPA and NCAA via BoT Tables 3.9a and 3.9b; earnings per visitor is TICGL calc. (zone totals use published zone rows).

Museums continued to recover in visitors (+13.9% to 153,695) but not in revenue: earnings fell 11.0% to TZS 909.2 million, concentrated in Dar es Salaam (-19.9% despite 10.3% more visitors), so revenue per museum visitor dropped from about TZS 7,570 to TZS 5,920.

5.2 Cross-border trade

Trade with neighbouring countries recorded a surplus of TZS 11,811.7 billion, 80.9% above the previous year. Exports rose 49.6% to TZS 14,964.4 billion, with Lake zone alone exporting TZS 12,811.3 billion (85.6% of the total, +75.6%) on unrefined gold, rough diamonds and fish products. Imports fell 9.1% to TZS 3,152.7 billion, driven by Lake zone (floor tiles, electronics, fish feed, mining equipment) and Northern zone (animal feed, pharmaceuticals, soap and detergents, lubricants), a substitution the report attributes to higher domestic production. Southern Highlands slipped into deficit (TZS -155.3 bn) as exports fell 20.2% and imports rose 22.3%.

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority via BoT Table 5.1. Cross-border trade covers land and lake trade with neighbouring countries only; Dar es Salaam and Central zones have no recorded cross-border trade in the table.

5.3 Ports and airports

Cargo handled at major sea and lake ports grew 26.6% to 39.4 million tonnes. Dar es Salaam handled 33.6 million tonnes (+26.5%, 85.4%), Tanga 2.17 million (+63.3%) and Mtwara 2.22 million (-13.7% on weak global coal demand). Bagamoyo and Mafia appear for the first time (377,300 and 69,500 tonnes), and lake ports on the DRC route grew strongly: Kigoma +54.9%, Karema +54.2% and Mwanza more than doubled, with clinker for cement the main export to DRC. Kilwa (+36.5%) and Lindi (+22.8%) benefited from seafood exports.

Source: Tanzania Ports Authority via BoT Table 5.2. Minor ports (Kilwa, Lindi, Mbamba Bay, Itungi, Kasanga, Matema) are included in the total but not listed.

Airports handled 148,636 flights (+4.2%), 5.25 million passengers (+8.8%) and 39,483 tonnes of cargo (+6.6%). Domestic passengers grew fastest (+12.8% to 3.00 million) against +3.9% for international passengers (2.25 million). Dar es Salaam accounts for 57.4% of passengers and 75.9% of cargo, the Northern zone for 26.7% of passengers.

06 — Revenue, Banking & CreditTax Collection, Local Revenue, Deposits, Loans and Agent Banking

Public revenue and the financial system both finished 2025/26 well ahead of their prior-year levels, and both are heavily centred on Dar es Salaam. Tax revenue reached TZS 36.25 trillion (107.1% of target), local-government own-source revenue reached TZS 1.66 trillion (99.4% of target), bank deposits rose 25.9% to TZS 50.0 trillion and loans 22.3% to TZS 45.8 trillion, and the bank-agent network grew 25.6% to 195,345 agents.

6.1 Tax revenue

Collections beat the annual target in every zone, from 106.5% in Dar es Salaam to 116.0% in Southern Highlands. The report credits economic expansion, taxpayer education and the Integrated Domestic Revenue Administration System. Taxes on local goods and services were the largest component (42.1%), followed by import taxes (39.0%) and direct taxes (18.9%), which grew fastest (+32.5%). Dar es Salaam accounts for 88.2% of the total because it is where large taxpayers and the port are registered, so zonal tax shares measure where tax is collected rather than where income is earned. Tax revenue equals about 15.5% of 2025 mainland GDP (TICGL calc., indicative because fiscal and calendar years differ).

Source: Tanzania Revenue Authority via BoT Table 4.1. Gross of refunds; excludes revenue collected by TANAPA, NCAA and TAWA. Growth and ratios are TICGL calc. (the published 2021/22 total does not equal the sum of the zone rows).

Source: BoT Table 4.2.

6.2 Local government revenue

Local Government Authorities collected TZS 1,656.4 billion from own sources (+14.5%), 99.4% of target, supported by point-of-sale devices and online trading of some cash crops. The shortfall sits in the largest urban base: Dar es Salaam reached only 90.1% of target (TZS 349.9 bn) and Central 93.1%, while South Eastern (109.7%), Southern Highlands (107.4%) and Lake (102.0%) exceeded targets. Local revenue equals about 4.6% of TRA collections.

Source: Regional Administrative Secretary Offices via BoT Table 4.3; ratios and growth are TICGL calc.

6.3 Bank deposits and loans

Deposits rose 25.9% to TZS 50,025.3 billion and loans 22.3% to TZS 45,802.1 billion (both exclude Zanzibar), so the national loan-to-deposit ratio eased from 94.3% to 91.6%. Credit equals about 19.6% of mainland GDP and deposits about 21.4% (TICGL calc., indicative). The zonal split is the interesting part. Dar es Salaam holds 62.8% of deposits (+32.0%) but only 51.5% of loans (+18.7%), a loan-to-deposit ratio of 75%. By contrast, deposits in Central (+0.9%) and Southern Highlands (-1.4%) stalled while loans grew 16.0% and 28.1%, taking their local loan-to-deposit ratios to 139% and 153%. Lake zone loans grew fastest (+39.0%). Banks are therefore moving Dar es Salaam funding into the regions, which is positive for regional investment but also a funding-concentration exposure.

Source: Banks via BoT Tables 6.1 and 6.2; loan-to-deposit ratios are TICGL calc. on zone-booked deposits and loans.

Personal loans take 35.0% of lending, wholesale and retail trade 15.7%, and agriculture 12.9%; manufacturing gets 8.3%, transport and communication 5.4%, building and construction 3.7% and mining 2.6%. Agriculture is the main borrower in Central (4.9% of total lending is booked there), manufacturing and transport in Dar es Salaam, and mining in Dar es Salaam and Lake (1.1% each). Personal and trade lending together are 50.7% of the book, which is consistent with strong household and trading demand but is not the same as investment finance.

6.4 Agent banking

The agent network grew 25.6% to 195,345 agents, with the fastest growth in South Eastern zone (+46.6% to 17,778) and Central (+29.7%). Cash deposits through agents rose 12.6% to TZS 103.3 trillion and cash withdrawals 30.2% to TZS 45.4 trillion, but transaction counts barely moved for deposits (+1.3% to 108.0 million) and rose 7.0% for withdrawals (66.9 million), so the growth is in the size of transactions (average deposit TZS 956,000, up 11.1%; average withdrawal TZS 679,000, up 21.7%), not in more customers served. Transactions per agent fell about 18% (from 1,087 to 895), a sign that the network is expanding faster than usage. Dar es Salaam has about 102 agents per 10,000 people against 18 in Lake zone and 20 in Central (TICGL calc. on implied zonal population).

Source: Bank of Tanzania, BoT Table 6.4 and Annex 5 (excludes Zanzibar); agents per 10,000 people is TICGL calc. using zone population implied by GDP / GDP per capita.

07 — Six-Month OutlookWhat Happens Next? October 2026 - March 2027 Scenarios

This tab turns the June 2026 data into scenarios for October 2026 - March 2027, the six months after this page was prepared. The latest hard data in the BoT report end in June 2026, so each scenario starts from the June base and is projected forward on simple, transparent rules that anyone can reproduce from the tables in Tabs 2-6. They are scenarios, not forecasts of record, and they should be checked against NBS and BoT releases for July-September 2026 as those become available.

7.1 Inflation: base effects and the April 2026 fuel step

We project each zone's CPI index forward from June 2026 at three monthly rates and divide by the index twelve months earlier (Annex 3). The three rates are anchored to the data: Relief (0.0% a month: prices plateau at the June level as fuel eases and the harvest arrives), Base (+0.25% a month, below the 24-month average of about 0.37% because of the 133% food self-sufficiency ratio) and Stress (+0.5% a month, the April-June 2026 pace). The April 2026 step is already in the index, so year-on-year inflation does not fall back automatically: it only declines as the low-inflation months of late 2025 and early 2026 drop out of the base.

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Annex 3 (CPI index) and Annex 4. Year-on-year % = projected index / index twelve months earlier. Zonal CPIs have different weights, so the simple average is indicative only.

• Dar es Salaam is the outlier. It starts at 6.2% and stays above 5% through March 2027 in the base case (5.5%) and above 7% in the stress case, because its index has risen every month since late 2025 and the base keeps rising slowly.
• Central and Southern Highlands normalise fastest. Their April 2025 price falls created low bases that disappear in April 2026; in the base case Central drops from 5.2% to 3.2% and Southern Highlands from 8.0% to 4.4% by March 2027.
• The band is at risk in October-November. In the base case the average zone peaks near 5.4% in those two months, because the flat-price months of late 2025 form the base while the post-shock level keeps rising; a flat price level keeps it at or below 4.4%.
• What would change the path: pump-price direction (diesel moves transport and food costs), the pace at which Southern Highlands and Central surplus grain reaches deficit zones, and any non-food pass-through in Dar es Salaam, where non-food inflation is already 6.2%.

7.2 Public revenue: another strong half-year

Tax collections averaged TZS 3,021 billion a month in 2025/26 (TZS 36,250.4 bn, +18.3%). Applying three growth rates to that run-rate, with flat seasonality (a simplification), gives the six-month collection for October-March shown below. Even the low case (+8%) means about TZS 19.6 trillion over six months, because the 2025/26 outturn already sits TZS 2.4 trillion above target.

Source: TICGL calc. on BoT Table 4.1; scenarios are run-rate illustrations, not Ministry of Finance or TRA projections.

7.3 Credit and deposits: growth continues, funding gets tighter

Loans grew 22.3% and deposits 25.9% in 2025/26. Projecting the end-March 2027 stock (nine months after the June 2026 base, so a factor of (1+g) to the power 0.75) at three annual growth rates gives the ranges below. A key watch-point is the loan-to-deposit ratio: if loans grow 25% while deposits grow 15%, the national ratio rises from 91.6% to about 98% by March 2027.

Source: TICGL calc. from BoT Tables 6.1 and 6.2 (June 2026 base: loans 45,802.1, deposits 50,025.3). Excludes Zanzibar.

7.4 Gold, tourism and electricity: the external and energy swing factors

Gold. Applying the 2025/26 volume growth (+5.7%) and a range of unit-value changes to 2025/26 gold recovery of USD 4,833.5 million gives the annual sensitivity below. Because price explained about 90% of the 2025/26 gain, the outlook for mining revenue, the Lake zone and the cross-border surplus is mostly a gold-price call.

Source: TICGL calc. on BoT Table 3.7a; 12-month illustration with volume +5.7%. Half of each annual figure approximates a six-month value.

Tourism. If visitors grow 5%, 7.5% or 10% in 2026/27 (2025/26: +7.5% to 2.449 million), arrivals reach 2.57, 2.63 or 2.69 million, and park earnings at constant TZS 336,400 per visitor reach TZS 865 bn, 886 bn or 906 bn. The risk is that growth depends on non-resident arrivals (76.5% of visitors) and on air and road capacity into the Northern zone.

Electricity. With hydro at 67% of generation and gas production 22% below its 2022/23 peak, the short-rains season is the main variable: a weak season would lift thermal burn and imports (already 613 GWh, 4.4% of supply), while good rains would keep the 2025/26 pattern of surplus hydro and falling gas use at power plants.

7.5 Six-month outlook matrix

Source: TICGL/TERI synthesis of Tabs 2-6; directions are analytical judgements on the scenario ranges above.

08 — Risks & PolicyWhat Could Go Wrong and What To Do About It

The previous tabs show an economy that is growing fast and is heavily concentrated. This tab pulls the risks together, ties each to evidence in the BoT report, and sets out the policy instruments that would reduce them. Concentration is the common thread: on the 2025/26 data one zone, one port, one commodity or one product group carries most of the weight in a dozen areas.

8.1 Risk register

Source: TICGL/TERI analysis. Likelihood and impact ratings are analytical judgements (Low/Medium/High), not model outputs.

8.2 Policy instruments

09 — What TICGL DoesFrom Zonal Data to Bankable Projects

TICGL (Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group Ltd), with its research arm TERI, turns national data of this kind into decision-grade work for investors, lenders and government: feasibility studies, market-entry advisory and market research and economic intelligence. This tab applies the zonal data in the BoT report as a first screen. It does not rank zones or recommend investments; it shows which indicators a feasibility or market study would need to test in each zone.

Source: BoT zonal report (Tables 1.1, 1.2, 3.6a, 4.1, 6.1, 6.2, Annex 4); growth rates, ratios and implied population are TICGL calc.

9.1 What the data raises for each zone

9.2 How TICGL/TERI works with this evidence