01 — OverviewExecutive Summary
Tanzania's external debt stock reached approximately TZS 95.1 trillion at the end of July 2026, converting the Bank of Tanzania's reported USD 35,885.6 million at the prevailing end-of-period exchange rate. This report looks at that stock from three angles that matter for debt sustainability and fiscal planning: who ultimately owes it (the central government overwhelmingly), what it has been used to fund (a mix dominated by balance-of-payments and budget support, transport and telecommunication, and social welfare and education), and which currencies it is denominated in (still heavily the US dollar, with a slowly rising Euro share).
A methodological point runs through the whole report and is worth stating up front: because this data is converted from US dollars into shillings, part of the shilling-value increase between Jul-25 and Jul-26 reflects the shilling's own depreciation against the dollar over that period, not new borrowing. Separating those two effects is one of this report's central contributions.
- The external debt stock grew from TZS 85.8 trillion to TZS 95.1 trillion between Jul-25 and Jul-26, a shilling-terms increase of about 10.8%. Of that, roughly 6.5 percentage points reflect actual dollar-debt growth (from USD 33,712.4 million to USD 35,885.6 million), while roughly 4.1 percentage points reflect the shilling's depreciation against the dollar over the same period.
- The central government holds the large majority of the debt — 83.7% (≈TZS 79.6 trillion) at end-July 2026 — with the private sector holding the remaining 16.3% (≈TZS 15.5 trillion) and public corporations holding a negligible amount.
- Balance-of-payments and budget support is the single largest use of funds, at 22.8% (≈TZS 21.5 trillion), narrowly ahead of transport and telecommunication at 21.9% (≈TZS 20.7 trillion) and social welfare and education at 19.5% (≈TZS 18.4 trillion).
- Tourism and real estate/construction are the smallest and slowest-growing use-of-funds categories, together accounting for only 6.4% (≈TZS 6.1 trillion) of disbursed outstanding debt at end-July 2026.
- The US dollar dominates the currency composition at 65.3% (≈TZS 61.6 trillion), with the Euro's share drifting upward from 17.8% to 18.2% over the year, the Chinese Yuan holding steady at 6.6%, and other currencies at 9.9%.
The third piece in TICGL/TERI's current macro-fiscal reading
This report completes a three-part reading of the Bank of Tanzania's August 2026 Monthly Economic Review: Central Government Budgetary Operations covers revenue and expenditure; External Sector Performance covers the current account, exports and imports; and this report covers the external debt stock that helps finance the gaps documented in both. Read together, they trace the path from the budget deficit, through the current account, to the debt stock it leaves behind.
Read: Tanzania's External Sector Performance →About TERI — TICGL's Research Institute
This report was produced under the Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), TICGL's dedicated research arm covering public finance, external debt and Tanzania's broader economic development. It draws on the Bank of Tanzania's monthly publication cycle to keep TICGL/TERI's macro monitoring current, and forms part of TERI's wider Tanzania Works: The Political Economy of Shared Prosperity series, produced to be adapted directly into government, parliamentary and development-partner policy briefs.
Visit TERI — teri.ticgl.com →02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers From the External Debt Stock
External Debt Stock by Borrower, Jul-25 – Jul-26
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.6.1); TICGL/TERI currency conversion and presentation.
03 — MethodologyConverting External Debt Into Shillings
The Bank of Tanzania reports Tanzania's external debt stock, its breakdown by borrower, its use of funds and its currency composition exclusively in US dollars. To present this data in Tanzanian shillings, TICGL/TERI has converted each reference month's dollar figures using the end-of-period TZS/USD exchange rate published in the same Monthly Economic Review's statistical tables (Table A10): TZS 2,545.8 per US dollar for July 2025, TZS 2,623.5 per US dollar for June 2026, and TZS 2,649.7 per US dollar for July 2026. All monetary figures on this page are expressed in TZS trillions (one trillion shillings equals one million million shillings).
For each of the three reference months, every US-dollar figure in Tables 2.6.1 (debt stock by borrower), 2.6.3 (use of funds) and 2.6.4 (currency composition) — using the absolute values that sit behind these percentage-share tables in Table A10 — was multiplied by that month's end-of-period exchange rate and divided by one million to express the result in TZS trillions. Percentage shares are unaffected by currency conversion and are reproduced as published; TICGL/TERI cross-checked each computed TZS total against the published percentage shares and confirmed they are consistent to within normal rounding.
Because exchange rates move between reference dates, part of any change in these shilling figures over time reflects exchange rate movement rather than a change in the underlying dollar-denominated debt. This report separates the two effects explicitly in Theme 1 below, and readers using this data for debt-to-GDP or other ratio analysis should note that GDP itself is typically reported in shillings using different conversion conventions, so ratios computed from this page's TZS figures should be treated as indicative rather than official.
1. External Debt Stock by Borrower: The Central Government's Debt, Overwhelmingly
Government-dominated, growing partly on FX effectsTanzania's external debt stock rose from TZS 85.83 trillion at the end of July 2025 to TZS 95.09 trillion at the end of July 2026 — an increase of about 10.8% in shilling terms. Underlying that figure in US dollars, the debt stock grew a more modest 6.45% (from USD 33,712.4 million to USD 35,885.6 million), while the shilling itself depreciated by about 4.1% against the dollar over the same period. Compounding those two effects reproduces the 10.8% shilling-terms increase almost exactly — a reminder that roughly two-fifths of the reported shilling growth in this debt stock is a currency effect, not new borrowing.
| Borrower | Jul-25 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | % share, Jul-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central government | 72.74 | 78.67 | 79.58 | 83.7% |
| o/w Disbursed outstanding debt | 72.53 | 78.46 | 79.37 | 83.5% |
| o/w Interest arrears | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.2% |
| Private sector | 13.08 | 15.32 | 15.50 | 16.3% |
| o/w Disbursed outstanding debt | 12.81 | 14.81 | 14.96 | 15.7% |
| o/w Interest arrears | 0.27 | 0.51 | 0.55 | 0.6% |
| Public corporations | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Total external debt stock | 85.83 | 93.99 | 95.09 | 100.0% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.6.1). TICGL/TERI conversion at end-of-period exchange rates of TZS 2,545.8/USD (Jul-25), TZS 2,623.5/USD (Jun-26) and TZS 2,649.7/USD (Jul-26). "o/w" denotes "of which".
The central government's share of the debt stock has been essentially stable across the three reference months, moving only from 84.8% (Jul-25) to 83.7% (Jul-26), with the private sector's share correspondingly rising from 15.2% to 16.3%. Interest arrears remain small in absolute terms — about TZS 0.76 trillion combined at end-July 2026 — but the private sector's arrears more than doubled in shilling terms over the year, from TZS 0.27 trillion to TZS 0.55 trillion, a faster pace of increase than its underlying disbursed debt.
- Roughly four of every ten shillings of debt-stock growth over the past year is a currency effect, not new borrowing — a distinction that matters when this data is used in public communication or debt-sustainability commentary.
- Private-sector interest arrears are growing faster than private-sector debt itself, worth monitoring even though the absolute shilling amounts remain modest relative to the central government's position.
2. Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds: Budget Support and Infrastructure Lead
Broadly stable compositionBalance-of-payments and budget support is the single largest identified use of Tanzania's disbursed outstanding external debt, at 22.8% (≈TZS 21.47 trillion) at end-July 2026, narrowly ahead of transport and telecommunication at 21.9% (≈TZS 20.70 trillion). Social welfare and education follows at 19.5% (≈TZS 18.42 trillion), then energy and mining at 12.5% (≈TZS 11.80 trillion). Tourism and real estate/construction are the smallest categories, together accounting for only 6.4% of the total.
| Use of funds | Jul-25 (TZS tn) | Jun-26 (TZS tn) | Jul-26 (TZS tn) | % share, Jul-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoP and budget support | 19.88 | 21.23 | 21.47 | 22.8% |
| Transport and telecommunication | 18.02 | 20.40 | 20.70 | 21.9% |
| Social welfare and education | 16.92 | 18.12 | 18.42 | 19.5% |
| Energy and mining | 10.19 | 11.81 | 11.80 | 12.5% |
| Agriculture | 4.34 | 4.94 | 5.03 | 5.3% |
| Real estate and construction | 4.53 | 4.54 | 4.56 | 4.8% |
| Finance and insurance | 3.10 | 3.93 | 3.97 | 4.2% |
| Other | 4.34 | 4.26 | 4.31 | 4.6% |
| Industries | 2.52 | 2.49 | 2.52 | 2.7% |
| Tourism | 1.52 | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.6% |
| Total disbursed outstanding debt | 85.36 | 93.27 | 94.33 | 100.0% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.6.3 percentage shares; underlying absolute figures from Table A10). TICGL/TERI conversion at each period's end-of-period exchange rate.
Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds — Percentage Share
The composition has been remarkably stable across the three reference months — no category moved by more than about a percentage point — which suggests the use-of-funds mix reflects long-standing project financing commitments rather than short-term shifts in borrowing strategy. In shilling terms, every category grew in absolute size between Jul-25 and Jul-26, consistent with the overall stock's growth, with finance and insurance growing fastest in percentage terms (from TZS 3.10 trillion to TZS 3.97 trillion, +28.1%) and industries essentially flat (TZS 2.52 trillion in both periods).
- Infrastructure and human-capital financing together account for more than 40% of disbursed outstanding debt — transport/telecommunication (21.9%) plus social welfare/education (19.5%) — a composition consistent with long-run development financing rather than short-term consumption support.
- Budget support remains the largest single category, underscoring how closely external debt and the government's own budgetary operations (covered in TICGL/TERI's companion report) are linked.
3. Currency Composition: Dollar-Dominated, With a Slowly Rising Euro Share
Concentrated currency exposureThe US dollar remains overwhelmingly dominant in Tanzania's disbursed outstanding external debt, at 65.3% (≈TZS 61.59 trillion) at end-July 2026, though its share has edged down slightly from 65.5% a year earlier. The Euro's share has moved the other way, rising from 17.8% to 18.2% (≈TZS 17.12 trillion). The Chinese Yuan's share has held essentially flat at 6.6% (≈TZS 6.26 trillion), and other currencies combined account for 9.9% (≈TZS 9.36 trillion).
| Currency | Jul-25 (TZS tn) | Jun-26 (TZS tn) | Jul-26 (TZS tn) | % share, Jul-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Dollar | 55.91 | 61.06 | 61.59 | 65.3% |
| Euro | 15.23 | 16.88 | 17.12 | 18.2% |
| Chinese Yuan | 5.60 | 6.18 | 6.26 | 6.6% |
| Other | 8.61 | 9.16 | 9.36 | 9.9% |
| Total disbursed outstanding debt | 85.36 | 93.27 | 94.33 | 100.0% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.6.4 percentage shares; underlying absolute figures from Table A10). TICGL/TERI conversion at each period's end-of-period exchange rate.
Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency Composition — Percentage Share
Because the debt stock is overwhelmingly dollar- and Euro-denominated, movements in the shilling's exchange rate against those two currencies — not against the Chinese Yuan or other currencies, whose combined share is under a fifth — will continue to be the dominant driver of any future currency-translation effects of the kind quantified in Theme 1.
A currency composition this concentrated in two hard currencies is not unusual for a country financing large infrastructure and budget-support loans from multilateral and bilateral partners, but it does mean the shilling-value of the debt stock will keep moving with the dollar-shilling and euro-shilling exchange rates regardless of any change in underlying borrowing behaviour — precisely the effect this report has attempted to separate out in Theme 1.
05 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: External Debt in One Picture
At 83.7% of the total, central government debt dominates Tanzania's TZS 95.1 trillion external debt stock, with the private sector's share edging up slowly.
Balance-of-payments/budget support, transport/telecommunication and social welfare/education together account for nearly two-thirds of disbursed outstanding debt.
At a combined 83.5% of disbursed outstanding debt, the US dollar and Euro dominate the currency composition, keeping the shilling value of the debt stock sensitive to those two exchange rates.
Around four-tenths of the year-on-year increase in the debt stock's shilling value reflects the shilling's own depreciation against the dollar, not additional disbursements.
06 — RecommendationsPolicy Directions on External Debt
Priority 1 — Separate FX Effects From New Borrowing in Public Reporting
- When communicating debt-stock growth in shilling terms, disclose how much reflects exchange rate movement versus new disbursements, following the decomposition demonstrated in this report.
Priority 2 — Monitor Private-Sector Arrears Growth
- Track why private-sector interest arrears more than doubled in shilling terms over the past year, even though they remain small relative to the central government's position.
Priority 3 — Stress-Test Currency Concentration
- Given that the US dollar and Euro together account for 83.5% of disbursed outstanding debt, run debt-service projections under a range of dollar-shilling and euro-shilling exchange rate scenarios.
Priority 4 — Keep Use-of-Funds Reporting Granular
- Continue publishing the use-of-funds breakdown at this level of detail, since its stability over time is itself a useful signal for tracking whether new borrowing follows established financing priorities or shifts toward new ones.
"Tanzania's external debt stock looks bigger in shillings than it does in dollars — and part of that gap is simply the exchange rate, not the debt. Getting that distinction right matters for how the number gets used in public debate."
— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)
07 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations
Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 — Table 2.6.1 (External Debt Stock by Borrower), Table 2.6.3 (Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Use of Funds, Percentage Share), Table 2.6.4 (Disbursed Outstanding Debt by Currency Composition, Percentage Share), and Table A10 (National Debt Developments, including the absolute-value series behind Tables 2.6.3 and 2.6.4, and end-of-period exchange rates). All currency conversions from USD to TZS on this page are TICGL/TERI's own computation and are not published by the Bank of Tanzania in this form.
- Primary data: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026; Ministry of Finance (external debt records).
- Method: Each US-dollar figure was converted to Tanzanian shillings using the end-of-period TZS/USD exchange rate published for the same reference month in Table A10 (Jul-25: 2,545.8; Jun-26: 2,623.5; Jul-26: 2,649.7), then expressed in trillions of shillings. Percentage shares are reproduced as published and are unaffected by currency conversion. The FX-versus-new-borrowing decomposition in Theme 1 was computed by TICGL/TERI by comparing the growth rate of the US-dollar debt stock with the depreciation rate of the exchange rate over the same period.
- Known limitations: Jul-26 figures are marked provisional in the source publication and may be revised in subsequent releases. TZS figures on this page use end-of-period exchange rates, which can differ from period-average rates used elsewhere in the same Review; readers combining this page's TZS figures with GDP or other shilling-denominated series reported on a different conversion basis should treat resulting ratios as indicative only. This report does not cover domestic debt, which the Bank of Tanzania reports separately.
- Related TICGL analysis: TICGL/TERI, "Tanzania's Central Government Budgetary Operations: Revenue, Expenditure and the Fiscal Balance" — read here; "Tanzania's External Sector Performance: Current Account, Services Exports and Services Imports" — read here; "Tanzania Government Revenue & Expenditure, 2000-2026" — read here.
08 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
How large is Tanzania's external debt stock in Tanzanian shillings?
Tanzania's external debt stock stood at approximately TZS 95.1 trillion at the end of July 2026, converting the Bank of Tanzania's reported USD 35,885.6 million at the end-of-period exchange rate of TZS 2,649.7 per US dollar.
Who holds Tanzania's external debt?
The central government holds the large majority of Tanzania's external debt, about 83.7% or roughly TZS 79.6 trillion at end-July 2026. The private sector holds about 16.3%, or roughly TZS 15.5 trillion, while public corporations hold a negligible amount.
What is Tanzania's external debt used for?
The largest uses of Tanzania's disbursed outstanding external debt are balance of payments and budget support (22.8%, about TZS 21.5 trillion), transport and telecommunication (21.9%, about TZS 20.7 trillion), and social welfare and education (19.5%, about TZS 18.4 trillion), as of end-July 2026.
What currencies is Tanzania's external debt denominated in?
The US dollar dominates at 65.3% of disbursed outstanding external debt (about TZS 61.6 trillion), followed by the Euro at 18.2% (about TZS 17.1 trillion), the Chinese Yuan at 6.6% (about TZS 6.3 trillion), and other currencies at 9.9% (about TZS 9.4 trillion), as of end-July 2026.
Why convert Tanzania's external debt into shillings instead of using the Bank of Tanzania's dollar figures?
The Bank of Tanzania publishes external debt only in US dollars. Converting to shillings at the prevailing end-of-period exchange rate shows the debt's scale in local-currency terms and highlights that some of the increase in shilling value over time reflects the shilling's depreciation against the dollar rather than new borrowing — a distinction that matters for assessing debt sustainability.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Deni la Nje la Tanzania: Wadai kwa Aina, Matumizi ya Fedha, na Muundo wa Sarafu (kwa Shilingi za Tanzania). Ripoti hii ya TICGL/TERI inachambua takwimu za deni la nje la Tanzania kutoka Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (Mapitio ya Kiuchumi ya Kila Mwezi, Agosti 2026), zikiwa zimebadilishwa kutoka Dola za Marekani kwenda Shilingi za Tanzania (trilioni), kwa kutumia kiwango cha ubadilishaji cha mwisho wa kipindi cha kila mwezi.
Matokeo makuu: Deni la nje la Tanzania lilifikia takribani Shilingi trilioni 95.1 mwishoni mwa Julai 2026, likiwa limeongezeka kutoka Shilingi trilioni 85.8 Julai 2025 — ongezeko la asilimia 10.8 kwa thamani ya Shilingi. Hata hivyo, sehemu kubwa ya ongezeko hilo (takribani pointi 4.1 kati ya asilimia 10.8) inatokana na kushuka kwa thamani ya Shilingi dhidi ya Dola, si mikopo mipya pekee. Serikali Kuu inamiliki asilimia 83.7 ya deni hilo (takribani Shilingi trilioni 79.6), huku sekta binafsi ikimiliki asilimia 16.3 (takribani Shilingi trilioni 15.5). Kwa upande wa matumizi, sehemu kubwa ya deni imeelekezwa kwenye msaada wa bajeti na urari wa malipo (asilimia 22.8), usafirishaji na mawasiliano (asilimia 21.9), na ustawi wa jamii na elimu (asilimia 19.5). Kwa upande wa sarafu, Dola ya Marekani inatawala kwa asilimia 65.3, ikifuatiwa na Euro (asilimia 18.2), Yuan ya China (asilimia 6.6), na sarafu nyingine (asilimia 9.9).
Hitimisho kuu ni kwamba deni la nje la Tanzania linaendelea kuwa la Serikali Kuu kwa kiasi kikubwa, likielekezwa zaidi kwenye miradi ya miundombinu, elimu, na msaada wa bajeti — muundo unaoashiria mikopo ya muda mrefu ya maendeleo badala ya matumizi ya muda mfupi. Hata hivyo, umuhimu wa kutenganisha athari za kushuka kwa thamani ya Shilingi na ongezeko halisi la mikopo ni jambo muhimu kwa uwazi wa taarifa za deni mbele ya umma, hasa ikizingatiwa kuwa asilimia 83.5 ya deni hilo lipo kwenye Dola na Euro pekee.
- Deni la Nje Jumla, Julai 2026: Shilingi trilioni 95.1 (≈ Dola milioni 35,885.6)
- Sehemu ya Serikali Kuu: asilimia 83.7 (≈ Shilingi trilioni 79.6)
- Matumizi Makubwa Zaidi: Msaada wa Bajeti na Urari wa Malipo — asilimia 22.8
- Sarafu Kuu: Dola ya Marekani — asilimia 65.3 (≈ Shilingi trilioni 61.6)
- Sehemu ya Ongezeko la Deni Inayotokana na Kushuka kwa Shilingi: takribani pointi 4.1 kati ya asilimia 10.8
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Mapitio ya Kiuchumi ya Kila Mwezi, Agosti 2026; ubadilishaji wa sarafu na uchambuzi wa Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), kwa ajili ya TICGL, Septemba 2026.