01 — OverviewExecutive Summary
Tanzania's external accounts recorded a wider current account deficit in the year ending July 2026, but the story underneath that headline number is more encouraging than the widening alone suggests. Exports of goods and services grew faster than they have in recent years, led by gold and by a services sector that is increasingly earning its keep through transport (freight) receipts, not just tourism. Imports also grew, driven by capital goods, refined petroleum products and the freight costs of moving them — a pattern consistent with continued investment and industrial expansion rather than simple consumption growth.
This report reads Section 2.7 of the Bank of Tanzania's August 2026 Monthly Economic Review at two levels: the year-ending-July comparison for 2024, 2025 and 2026 (provisional), which captures the most recent momentum; and the calendar-year 2021–2025 Balance of Payments series, which shows where that momentum sits within a longer trend of a current account deficit that had been narrowing since its 2022 peak before ticking back up.
- The current account deficit widened by 21.3% to USD 2,395.3 million in the year ending July 2026, from USD 1,975.4 million a year earlier, as a USD 3,018.0 million rise in goods imports outpaced a USD 2,828.3 million combined rise in exports of goods and services.
- Exports of goods and services grew 16.5% to USD 19,985.8 million, with goods exports (up 20.7% to USD 11,951.7 million) growing faster than services receipts (up 10.7% to USD 8,034.1 million); gold alone supplied 47.4% of goods export earnings.
- Within services receipts, transport is now growing faster than tourism. Transport (freight) receipts rose 29.7% to USD 3,221.5 million, while travel (tourism) receipts — still the largest single category — grew a more modest 1.6% to USD 4,292.8 million.
- Imports of goods and services grew 18.3% to USD 20,807.4 million, led by capital and intermediate goods; refined white petroleum products alone rose 42.3% to USD 3,296.8 million, reflecting elevated global oil prices and sustained domestic demand.
- Services payments grew a more modest 6.5% to USD 3,368.1 million, with transport (freight) payments up about 19.7% to USD 1,756.1 million — consistent with higher goods imports and elevated international shipping costs — while travel payments were essentially flat.
- Reserves remain comfortably adequate. Gross official reserves of USD 6,199.6 million at end-July 2026 cover 4.8 months of projected imports, above the standard three-month benchmark and broadly unchanged from a year earlier.
A companion to TICGL/TERI's fiscal monitoring work
This external sector piece is designed to be read alongside Tanzania's Central Government Budgetary Operations, drawn from the same Bank of Tanzania Monthly Economic Review, and alongside TICGL/TERI's broader Government Budget series covering revenue, tax structure and VAT. Together they give a fuller picture of Tanzania's macro-fiscal and external position in one publication cycle.
Read: Central Government Budgetary Operations →About TERI — TICGL's Research Institute
This report was produced under the Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), TICGL's dedicated research arm covering public finance, external sector performance and Tanzania's broader economic development. It draws on the Bank of Tanzania's monthly publication cycle to keep TICGL/TERI's macro monitoring current, and forms part of TERI's wider Tanzania Works: The Political Economy of Shared Prosperity series, produced to be adapted directly into government, parliamentary and development-partner policy briefs.
Visit TERI — teri.ticgl.com →02 — At a GlanceKey Numbers From the External Sector
Current Account and Its Components, Year Ending July
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.7.1); TICGL/TERI presentation.
03 — MethodologyReading the External Sector Data
This report uses two complementary views of Tanzania's external accounts as published by the Bank of Tanzania. The first is the "year ending" cumulative view — the sum of the trailing twelve months to July 2024, July 2025 and July 2026 (provisional) — which is how the Bank of Tanzania itself frames current account, export and import performance in its Monthly Economic Review. The second is the calendar-year Balance of Payments series for 2021–2025, published separately in the Review's statistical tables, which gives a longer run for tracking structural trends. Because these two series use different reference windows (year-ending-July versus calendar year), this report keeps them in clearly labelled, separate charts rather than blending them into a single series.
The current account is broken into the goods account, the services account (receipts less payments), the primary income account (mainly investment income and compensation of employees) and the secondary income account (mainly transfers). Services receipts and payments are further split into travel (tourism), transport (freight and related services) and other services, following the Bank of Tanzania's own categorisation in Charts 2.7.3 and 2.7.5. Goods exports and imports are presented using the Bank of Tanzania's own "select" category breakdowns (Charts 2.7.2 and 2.7.4).
The current account deficit's headline widening can obscure a more differentiated picture underneath: goods and services are moving in somewhat different directions, and within services, receipts and payments are each being pulled by different categories. Isolating the current account, services receipts and services payments — as this report does — makes those distinctions visible in a way the Bank of Tanzania's own aggregate reporting does not always foreground.
1. The Current Account: A Wider Deficit, But Goods and Services Are Diverging
Deficit wider, but services surplus growingTanzania's current account deficit widened by 21.3% to USD 2,395.3 million in the year ending July 2026, from USD 1,975.4 million in the year ending July 2025. The Bank of Tanzania attributes this directly to a USD 3,018.0 million rise in goods imports — driven by investment-related and energy demand — that outweighed a combined USD 2,828.3 million rise in exports of goods and services.
| Item | 2024 | 2025 | 2026p | % change 25→26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goods account | -5,922.1 | -4,521.1 | -5,487.6 | 21.4% |
| Exports | 7,923.4 | 9,900.2 | 11,951.7 | 20.7% |
| Imports | 13,845.6 | 14,421.3 | 17,439.3 | 20.9% |
| Services account | 4,176.3 | 4,094.7 | 4,665.9 | 14.0% |
| Receipts | 6,630.7 | 7,257.3 | 8,034.1 | 10.7% |
| Payments | 2,454.4 | 3,162.6 | 3,368.1 | 6.5% |
| Goods and services balance | -1,745.8 | -426.4 | -821.6 | 92.7% |
| Primary income balance | -1,689.7 | -2,015.5 | -1,958.4 | -2.8% |
| Secondary income balance | 616.0 | 466.4 | 384.7 | -17.5% |
| Current account balance | -2,819.5 | -1,975.4 | -2,395.3 | 21.3% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table 2.7.1). % change is 2026p versus 2025.
Two offsetting movements are worth separating from the headline. The primary income deficit actually narrowed by 2.8% to USD 1,958.4 million, mainly on lower interest payments to non-residents, and would on its own have pushed the current account toward balance. The secondary income surplus, however, narrowed by 17.5% to USD 384.7 million on lower personal transfers, working in the opposite direction. Neither move was large enough to offset the goods and services balance swinging from a USD 426.4 million deficit in 2025 to a USD 821.6 million deficit in 2026 — itself a near-doubling (92.7%) driven almost entirely by the goods account rather than services, which stayed in a growing surplus throughout.
- The services account is the current account's stabiliser, not its problem. It ran a growing surplus of USD 4,665.9 million in 2026, up 14.0% on the year, cushioning what would otherwise be an even wider deficit.
- The goods account is where the deterioration is concentrated — its deficit widened by 21.4% as import growth (20.9%) outpaced export growth (20.7%) by a narrow but decisive margin.
2. Exports: Gold Leads Goods, Transport Leads Services Receipts
Broad-based export growthExports of goods and services grew 16.5% to USD 19,985.8 million in the year ending July 2026. Goods exports grew faster, up 20.7% to USD 11,951.7 million, owing to higher exports of gold, manufactured goods, tobacco and coffee. Gold alone rose 37.4% to USD 5,670.7 million, supplying 47.4% of goods export earnings and consolidating its position as Tanzania's principal source of foreign exchange.
| Item | 2025 | 2026p | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,127.1 | 5,670.7 | 37.4% |
| Manufactured goods | 1,517.3 | 2,215.5 | 46.0% |
| Tobacco | 443.0 | 588.6 | 32.9% |
| Coffee | 337.5 | 396.0 | 17.3% |
| Cashewnuts | 527.6 | 479.3 | -9.2% |
| Edible vegetables | 369.3 | 339.9 | -8.0% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Chart 2.7.2 and Table A6).
Services receipts grew more slowly, up 10.7% to USD 8,034.1 million, but the composition of that growth is the more interesting story for a country whose services exports have long been synonymous with tourism. Travel (tourism) receipts, still the largest category at USD 4,292.8 million, grew just 1.6% over the year. Transport receipts — largely freight earnings — grew 29.7% to USD 3,221.5 million, reflecting higher freight earnings on increased transit cargo volumes. Other services receipts grew 9.2% to USD 519.7 million.
Services Receipts by Category, Year Ending July
Top Goods Exports, Year Ending July
- Transport receipts are the fastest-growing major export category on either the goods or services side at 29.7% growth — a signal that Tanzania's logistics and transit-trade position, not only its mining and tourism sectors, is becoming a meaningful foreign exchange earner in its own right.
- Tourism's growth has plateaued relative to other export categories. At 1.6% growth, travel receipts are barely keeping pace with inflation, even as they remain the single largest services export category by value.
3. Imports: Petroleum and Capital Goods Lead, Freight Payments Follow
Investment-consistent, but costlier to moveImports of goods and services grew 18.3% to USD 20,807.4 million in the year ending July 2026, driven mainly by capital goods, industrial supplies, refined petroleum products and freight services — a pattern the Bank of Tanzania links to continued investment and industrial expansion. Goods imports rose to USD 17,439.3 million, led by capital and intermediate goods; refined white petroleum products, which accounted for 18.9% of the goods import bill, rose 42.3% to USD 3,296.8 million, reflecting elevated global oil prices and sustained domestic demand.
| Item | 2025 | 2026p | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial supplies | 5,117.2 | 5,685.7 | 11.1% |
| Refined white petroleum products | 2,316.3 | 3,296.8 | 42.3% |
| Freight | 1,310.7 | 1,590.1 | 21.3% |
| Machinery and mechanical appliances | 1,095.2 | 1,440.1 | 31.5% |
| Industrial transport equipment | 1,184.4 | 1,350.3 | 14.0% |
| Electrical machinery and equipment | 460.5 | 749.7 | 62.8% |
| Motor cars for household | 409.5 | 466.5 | 13.9% |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Chart 2.7.4 and Table A7).
Services payments grew more slowly than goods imports, up 6.5% to USD 3,368.1 million, but their composition mirrors the goods-side story. Transport payments — freight costs on Tanzania's own import bill — rose by around 19.7% to USD 1,756.1 million, mainly due to higher freight payments consistent with increased goods imports and elevated international shipping costs. Travel payments were essentially flat, up marginally to USD 678.7 million, while other services payments fell 8.8% to USD 933.4 million.
Services Payments by Category, Year Ending July
Top Goods Imports, Year Ending July
- Freight costs are rising on both sides of the ledger — transport receipts are up 29.7% and transport payments are up about 19.7% — which is consistent with the Bank of Tanzania's own reporting elsewhere in the Review of elevated international shipping costs during the year.
- Petroleum products remain Tanzania's single largest identifiable import cost pressure, at 42.3% growth and 18.9% of the entire goods import bill, making the current account sensitive to global oil price movements.
4. The 2021–2025 Trend: A Deficit That Had Been Narrowing Before It Widened Again
A longer improvement, a recent reversalPlacing the year-ending-July figures in a longer context, the Bank of Tanzania's calendar-year Balance of Payments series shows Tanzania's current account deficit peaking at USD 5,482.2 million in 2022 before narrowing for three consecutive years to USD 2,049.4 million in 2025 (provisional) — a substantial improvement driven mainly by a steadily strengthening services balance and a goods deficit that, while still large, has been shrinking since its 2022 peak.
| Year | Goods Balance | Services Balance | Primary Income | Secondary Income | Current Account |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | -3,247.1 | 1,510.7 | -1,191.6 | 553.7 | -2,374.3 |
| 2022 | -6,984.9 | 2,296.6 | -1,393.2 | 599.3 | -5,482.2 |
| 2023 | -6,032.3 | 3,835.9 | -1,496.6 | 732.5 | -2,960.6 |
| 2024r | -5,074.0 | 4,051.7 | -1,887.4 | 529.9 | -2,379.8 |
| 2025p | -4,524.8 | 4,235.7 | -2,050.1 | 289.9 | -2,049.4 |
Source: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 (Table A5: Tanzania Balance of Payments). r denotes revised data; p denotes provisional data. Note: this calendar-year series uses a different reference window from the year-ending-July figures used elsewhere in this report, so the two should not be compared directly.
The Current Account and Its Components, 2021–2025
The services balance more than doubled between 2021 (USD 1,510.7 million) and 2025 (USD 4,235.7 million), while the goods deficit — despite remaining the current account's largest single drag — narrowed from its 2022 peak. Set against this multi-year improvement, the year-ending-July 2026 widening documented in Themes 1 through 3 above reads less as a reversal of the underlying trend and more as a single-year setback driven by a specific and identifiable cause: a goods import surge tied to investment and energy demand, arriving faster than exports and services receipts could offset it.
Both things can be true at once: Tanzania's current account position has genuinely improved over the 2021–2025 period, anchored by a strengthening services account, and the most recent year-ending-July data shows a real widening driven by import-side pressures. Whether the FY2026 widening proves temporary — as import-intensive investment spending completes — or marks the start of a new trend will depend largely on whether goods import growth moderates while gold and transport-services receipts continue their current pace.
05 — SynthesisCross-Cutting Synthesis: The External Sector in One Picture
A 21.3% widening to USD 2,395.3 million was almost entirely a goods-account story — the services, primary and secondary income accounts moved far less, or in the opposite direction.
The services balance has more than doubled since 2021 and grew a further 14.0% in the year ending July 2026, cushioning the goods deficit throughout.
Freight receipts (+29.7%) and freight payments (+19.7%) both outpaced their respective totals, reflecting Tanzania's growing role as a transit-trade corridor and its exposure to global shipping costs.
At 4.8 months of import cover, gross official reserves remain comfortably above standard benchmarks, giving policymakers space to assess whether the FY2026 widening is temporary before reacting to it.
06 — RecommendationsPolicy Directions on the External Sector
Priority 1 — Diagnose the Goods Import Surge
- Break down the FY2026 rise in capital and intermediate goods imports by project and sector to establish whether it reflects one-off investment activity likely to taper, or a structural rise in import intensity.
Priority 2 — Back the Transport-Services Growth Story
- Support the logistics, port and transit-trade capacity behind the 29.7% growth in transport receipts, given its potential to diversify services exports beyond tourism.
- Monitor freight cost pass-through on the import side, since transport payments are rising alongside transport receipts and both are exposed to global shipping-cost volatility.
Priority 3 — Manage Petroleum Import Exposure
- Given refined petroleum products' 42.3% growth and 18.9% share of the goods import bill, stress-test the current account against further global oil price moves.
Priority 4 — Track the Deficit's Trajectory, Not Just Its Level
- Distinguish, in ongoing monitoring, between the multi-year improvement visible in the 2021–2025 calendar-year data and the FY2026 year-ending-July uptick, so that policy responses match the underlying trend rather than the latest single data point.
"The current account's headline widening is a goods-import story, not a broad external deterioration. Tanzania's services account — and transport receipts within it — is doing more of the stabilising work than it gets credit for."
— TICGL / Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI)
07 — Sources & Data NotesReferences, Data Sources and Limitations
Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026 — Table 2.7.1 (Current Account), Table 2.7.2 (Contribution to Change in Current Account Balance), Charts 2.7.1 through 2.7.5, and Table A5 (Tanzania Balance of Payments). This report was produced as a companion to TICGL/TERI's Central Government Budgetary Operations report and Government Budget series.
- Primary data: Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Economic Review, August 2026; Tanzania Revenue Authority and banks (underlying trade and services data).
- Method: Year-ending-July figures for 2024, 2025 and 2026 are presented as published; percentage changes are as reported by the Bank of Tanzania where stated, or computed by TICGL/TERI by comparing the 2026 (provisional) figure with the 2025 figure where not explicitly stated. Calendar-year 2021–2025 figures are as published in Table A5 and use a different reference window from the year-ending-July series, so the two are presented in separate charts and tables rather than combined.
- Known limitations: Figures for 2026 (and, for Table A5, 2024 and 2025) are marked provisional or revised in the source publication and may be updated in subsequent Bank of Tanzania releases. This report does not cover the interbank foreign exchange market or exchange rate movements, which the Bank of Tanzania reports separately under financial markets, nor Tanzania's external and domestic debt stock, which is reported separately under debt developments.
- Related TICGL analysis: TICGL/TERI, "Tanzania's Central Government Budgetary Operations: Revenue, Expenditure and the Fiscal Balance" — read here; "Tanzania Government Revenue & Expenditure, 2000-2026" — read here; "Is Tanzania's Reliance on VAT Fueling Growth or Holding It Back?" — read here.
08 — Quick AnswersFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tanzania's current account deficit?
Tanzania's current account deficit widened by 21.3% to USD 2,395.3 million in the year ending July 2026, from USD 1,975.4 million in the corresponding period of 2025, according to the Bank of Tanzania.
Why did Tanzania's current account deficit widen?
Goods imports rose by USD 3,018.0 million in the year ending July 2026, driven by investment-related and energy demand, which outweighed a combined USD 2,828.3 million increase in exports of goods and services over the same period.
What drove growth in Tanzania's services export receipts?
Transport receipts rose by 29.7% to USD 3,221.5 million in the year ending July 2026, reflecting higher freight earnings on increased transit cargo volumes, while travel (tourism) receipts, the largest services category, grew a more modest 1.6% to USD 4,292.8 million.
What is driving growth in Tanzania's services import payments?
Transport payments rose by about 19.7% to USD 1,756.1 million in the year ending July 2026, mainly due to higher freight payments consistent with increased goods imports and elevated international shipping costs, while travel payments were roughly flat.
Are Tanzania's foreign exchange reserves adequate?
Gross official foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 6,199.6 million at the end of July 2026, equivalent to 4.8 months of projected imports of goods and services, which the Bank of Tanzania describes as underscoring external stability and which sits above the standard three-month import cover benchmark.
Muhtasari kwa Kiswahili
Mwenendo wa Sekta ya Nje ya Tanzania: Akaunti ya Sasa, Mauzo na Manunuzi ya Nje. Ripoti hii ya TICGL/TERI inachambua takwimu za Benki Kuu ya Tanzania (Mapitio ya Kiuchumi ya Kila Mwezi, Agosti 2026) kuhusu sekta ya nje — akaunti ya sasa (current account), mauzo ya nje ya bidhaa na huduma (ikijikita kwenye mapato ya huduma kwa aina), na manunuzi ya nje ya bidhaa na huduma (ikijikita kwenye malipo ya huduma kwa aina).
Matokeo makuu: Nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa iliongezeka kwa asilimia 21.3 hadi Dola za Marekani milioni 2,395.3 kwa mwaka unaoishia Julai 2026, ikisukumwa na ongezeko la manunuzi ya bidhaa za nje (milioni 3,018.0) lililozidi ongezeko la pamoja la mauzo ya bidhaa na huduma (milioni 2,828.3). Mauzo ya nje yaliongezeka kwa asilimia 16.5 hadi milioni 19,985.8, yakiongozwa na dhahabu (ongezeko la asilimia 37.4) na mapato ya usafirishaji (transport) yaliyoongezeka kwa asilimia 29.7 — kasi zaidi kuliko utalii uliokua kwa asilimia 1.6 tu. Manunuzi ya nje yaliongezeka kwa asilimia 18.3 hadi milioni 20,807.4, yakiongozwa na bidhaa za mafuta ya petroli zilizosafishwa (ongezeko la asilimia 42.3) na malipo ya usafirishaji (freight) yaliyoongezeka kwa asilimia 19.7 kutokana na gharama kubwa za usafirishaji duniani. Akiba ya fedha za kigeni ilibaki imara katika Dola milioni 6,199.6, sawa na miezi 4.8 ya uagizaji, juu ya kiwango cha chini kinachohitajika.
Hitimisho kuu ni kwamba, ijapokuwa nakisi ya akaunti ya sasa imeongezeka mwaka huu, hali hii inatokea ndani ya mwenendo mrefu wa uboreshaji tangu kilele cha nakisi mwaka 2022. Sekta ya huduma, hasa mapato ya usafirishaji, inaendelea kuimarika na kusaidia kupunguza pengo la biashara ya bidhaa. Sera zinazolenga kuboresha usafirishaji, kusimamia gharama za mafuta ya petroli, na kuchunguza chanzo cha ongezeko la manunuzi ya bidhaa za uwekezaji ni muhimu kwa uendelevu wa sekta ya nje.
- Nakisi ya Akaunti ya Sasa (Julai 2026): Dola milioni 2,395.3 — ongezeko la asilimia 21.3
- Mauzo ya Bidhaa na Huduma: Dola milioni 19,985.8 — ongezeko la asilimia 16.5
- Manunuzi ya Bidhaa na Huduma: Dola milioni 20,807.4 — ongezeko la asilimia 18.3
- Mapato ya Usafirishaji (Transport Receipts): Dola milioni 3,221.5 — ongezeko la asilimia 29.7
- Akiba ya Fedha za Kigeni: Dola milioni 6,199.6 — sawa na miezi 4.8 ya uagizaji
Chanzo: Benki Kuu ya Tanzania, Mapitio ya Kiuchumi ya Kila Mwezi, Agosti 2026; uchambuzi wa Tanzania Economic Research Institute (TERI), kwa ajili ya TICGL, Septemba 2026.