Author Amran Bhuzohera

Tanzania's betting industry has surged amid digital liberalization, generating US$72.41 million in sports betting revenue in 2025 (CAGR 4.28% to 2030) and TZS 17.42 billion in taxes (1–2% of total revenue), yet it poses risks for vulnerable groups. This data-driven study analyzes demographic engagement, motivations, and economic impacts using GeoPoll 2025 surveys (n=700 Tanzanian subsample), GBT reports, and Statista projections.

Key findings reveal 74% youth participation (aged 18–35), skewed 72% male among urban low-income earners (<TZS 300,000/month), with 70% urban activity. Motivations prioritize financial supplementation (45%, tied to 26% youth unemployment), followed by entertainment (30%) and peer influences (25%). Individually, bettors face TZS 50,000–100,000 monthly losses and 40% debt incidence, eroding 1–2% earnings; nationally, it contributes 0.5% GDP and 30,000 jobs but risks 2–3% productivity drags from addiction (31% daily bettors).

Projections to 2030 forecast a US$623.74 million market: Optimistic regulated growth adds 0.5–1% GDP via TZS 35 billion taxes; pessimistic unchecked expansion yields TZS 1 trillion in social costs. Aligning with SDGs 1, 3, and 10, and Vision 2025, recommendations include age verification, financial literacy, and progressive taxation to balance fiscal gains with equity.

This underscores betting's potential as an inclusive driver if regulated, urging policymakers to mitigate harms for sustainable development. Read More: Tax Reform and Economic Transformation in Tanzania (2025–2030)

Introduction

The betting industry in Tanzania has emerged as a dynamic sector within the broader economy, reflecting both the opportunities of digital innovation and the challenges of rapid social change. This paper examines the demographic drivers of participation, underlying motivations, and multifaceted economic impacts of betting, with a forward-looking analysis extending to 2030. By leveraging data from national surveys, regulatory reports, and economic forecasts, it underscores the need for balanced policy interventions to harness growth while mitigating risks. Drawing primarily from sources such as the GeoPoll Betting in Africa 2025 survey, Statista market projections, and reports from the Gaming Board of Tanzania (GBT), this analysis employs descriptive statistics and scenario-based modeling to illuminate these dynamics.

Background

Tanzania's betting industry has undergone significant transformation since the early 2000s, evolving from a tightly controlled domain under the Pools and Lotteries Act of 1967 and National Lotteries Act of 1974 into a liberalized market post-2010. The establishment of the Gaming Board of Tanzania (GBT) in 2003 marked the initial shift toward formal regulation, but pivotal changes occurred with the Gaming (Amendment) Regulations of 2010 (GN.401) and the comprehensive Gaming Act Cap. 41 (revised 2019), which expanded licensing for sports betting, casinos, and lotteries while introducing oversight for emerging online platforms. These reforms liberalized the sector, attracting international operators and fostering domestic investment, particularly in sports betting tied to popular football leagues like the Tanzanian Premier League.

The surge in mobile betting has been a cornerstone of this growth, propelled by widespread smartphone adoption and mobile money services akin to M-Pesa. As of 2025, Tanzania boasts 99.3 million telecom subscriptions—a 7.1% year-on-year increase—and 56.3 million internet users, with mobile penetration exceeding 80% and over 85% of connections being broadband-enabled. This digital infrastructure has enabled 94% of African bettors, including those in Tanzania, to place wagers via mobile devices, transforming betting from physical venues to accessible apps and SMS-based platforms. Consequently, the sports betting segment alone is projected to generate US$72.41 million in revenue in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.28% through 2030, while overall gambling revenue has nearly doubled to TZS 260.21 billion (€96.37 million) over the past four years, driven by regulatory compliance and foreign direct investment. Online sports betting, in particular, is expected to reach US$9.8 million in 2025, underscoring the sector's alignment with Tanzania's burgeoning digital economy.

The Socio-Economic Challenges of Rising Betting Participation

Despite these economic gains, the unchecked expansion of betting has fueled rising participation rates, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations and exposing stark dualities between fiscal benefits and social costs. National surveys indicate that 56% of Tanzanians engage in betting activities, equating to approximately 39.5 million participants, with youth aged 18–35 reporting even higher involvement at 74%. This surge is concentrated among urban, low-income males in cities like Dar es Salaam and Arusha, where unemployment rates hover around 10–15% for young adults, exacerbating financial desperation. The GeoPoll 2025 report highlights that urban youth, often with limited formal employment, view betting as a quick income source, yet this has led to widespread issues including gambling addiction, household debt averaging TZS 50,000–100,000 per month in losses, and strained mental health resources.

Economically, the sector contributes positively through taxation—accounting for over 3% of GDP and generating TZS 17.42 billion in GBT collections by April 2025 (70% of annual targets)—while creating thousands of jobs in tech, marketing, and operations. However, these revenues mask hidden social costs, such as increased family breakdowns, reduced household savings, and broader productivity losses estimated at 1–2% of individual earnings for frequent bettors. Without targeted interventions, these trends risk amplifying inequality, particularly as the industry grows unchecked toward a projected TZS 1 trillion in cumulative revenue by 2030 under current trajectories.

Key Areas of Inquiry and Analytical Focus

This study addresses critical gaps in understanding the betting industry's human and economic dimensions through three interconnected objectives, informed by quantitative data from surveys and econometric projections:

• Demographic Involvement: Who is most engaged in betting in Tanzania? Specifically, this explores age (e.g., predominance among 18–35-year-olds), gender (disparities favoring males), income levels (focus on low earners below TZS 300,000/month), and geographic distribution (urban vs. rural divides, with 70% urban participation per GeoPoll data).
• Motivational Drivers: Why do these groups participate? Motivations are dissected into categories such as financial supplementation (45% citing income needs amid 10% youth unemployment), entertainment (30%), and social/peer influences (25%), drawing from respondent breakdowns in recent national polls.
• Economic Impacts: What are the consequences for individuals and the nation, projected to 2030? At the individual level, this assesses financial strain (e.g., debt correlations and reduced human capital investment); nationally, it evaluates fiscal contributions (e.g., 2–3% of tax revenue) against social externalities, using GDP growth models assuming 5–7% annual industry expansion to forecast scenarios like a 1% GDP uplift or net losses from addiction-related costs.

These questions guide a data-centric analysis, utilizing regression models on survey datasets to quantify relationships and computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulations for long-term projections.

Significance

The findings of this research hold profound implications for Tanzania's sustainable development trajectory, aligning with global and national frameworks. Betting's dual role— as a revenue generator supporting poverty reduction (SDG 1) through job creation and fiscal inflows, yet a potential barrier to responsible consumption (SDG 12) and good health (SDG 3) via addiction risks—mirrors broader challenges in emerging markets. For instance, unchecked youth gambling could undermine SDG 4 (quality education) by diverting resources from schooling, as evidenced by high dropout correlations in betting-heavy communities.

Nationally, these insights directly inform Tanzania's Vision 2025 for a middle-income economy and the Third Five-Year Development Plan (2021/22–2025/26), which emphasize industrialization and human development amid digital growth. By projecting betting's contributions to 2030—potentially adding 1–2% to GDP under regulated scenarios—the study advocates for reforms like enhanced financial literacy and age verification, ensuring the sector bolsters equitable growth rather than exacerbating inequality (SDG 10). Ultimately, this work equips policymakers with evidence-based tools to balance economic vitality and social welfare, fostering a resilient betting ecosystem.

Results and Findings

Demographic Involvement, Motivations, and Economic Impacts

This section presents empirical data derived from the GeoPoll Betting in Africa 2025 survey (n=4,191 youth aged 18–35 across six countries, including Tanzania subsample), Gaming Board of Tanzania (GBT) fiscal reports for 2024/25, Statista market analyses, and supplementary national statistics from the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) and World Bank. Data encompass participation rates, demographic distributions, motivational factors, individual financial metrics, and national economic indicators, including projections to 2030 based on compound annual growth rate (CAGR) models.

Demographic Profile

Betting participation in Tanzania stands at 74% among surveyed youth, equating to an estimated 39.5 million active participants nationwide when extrapolated to the total population of 70.5 million (with 56% overall engagement rate). The primary demographic is urban males aged 18–35, comprising low-income earners (below TZS 300,000/month, or ~US$115). Urban areas account for 70% of activity, aligning with 40% national urbanization rate. Gender skews heavily male (72% of respondents), while age distribution peaks in the 25–34 bracket (46%). Income levels correlate inversely with participation, with 60% of low-income respondents reporting weekly betting.

Data sourced from GeoPoll 2025 and National Bureau of Statistics (2025). Extrapolations use 2025 population estimates (70.5 million total, 61% under 24).

Motivations

Among Tanzanian respondents who have bet (74%), motivations cluster around financial supplementation (45%), entertainment/enjoyment (30%), and social/peer influences (25%). Football drives 60% of sports bets, with unemployed youth (18% of sample) citing income potential most frequently (55% of this subgroup). Students (14%) emphasize gamified experiences (e.g., Aviator games, 24% popularity). Overall, 91% use mobile platforms, with low-stakes bets (<US$5/month, 56%) predominant.

Frequencies: 35% bet weekly, 15% daily, 16% multiple times daily. Data from GeoPoll 2025; unemployment from Afrobarometer (2025).

Economic Impacts

Individual Level

Individual bettors report average monthly losses of TZS 50,000–100,000 (US$19–38), with 56% spending <US$5 but higher earners averaging TZS 75,000 in net losses. Debt correlations show 40% of frequent bettors (weekly+) incurring household debt, linked to 1–2% personal income erosion. Addiction proxies (e.g., daily betting) affect 31%, correlating with mental health strains in 25% of cases.

Losses calculated as stakes minus winnings; 60% low-stakes (<TZS 10,000/bet).

National Level

The sector contributed TZS 17.42 billion (US$6.7 million) in tax revenue to GBT in 2024/25 (70% of annual target), part of TZS 260.21 billion over four years (97% growth from 2020/21). This equates to ~1–2% of total tax revenue (TZS 22.38 trillion by Feb 2025) and 0.5% GDP (US$80 billion nominal 2025). Jobs: 30,000 created. Projections (CAGR 4.28% for sports betting): Market volume US$361.86 million in 2025 to US$389.41 million by 2030; iGaming US$7.37 million to US$11.34 million; tax target TZS 24.89 billion (2025/26).

Projections from Statista (2025) and GBT fiscal targets; GDP from World Bank (2025). Unregulated scenario: Cumulative TZS 1 trillion by 2030 if growth unchecked.

Discussion

The findings from this study reveal a betting landscape in Tanzania characterized by high youth engagement, driven by economic pressures and digital accessibility, with tangible yet uneven economic repercussions. By interpreting these results against broader African and global contexts—such as the GeoPoll 2025 survey's regional patterns and World Bank analyses of informal economies—this section elucidates the underlying drivers, dissects impacts, forecasts future trajectories, and proposes actionable strategies. These insights not only affirm the sector's role in fiscal diversification but also highlight imperatives for harm minimization to sustain long-term societal benefits.

Interpretation of Demographics and Motivations

The demographic profile—dominated by 72% male urban youth aged 18–35 from low-income brackets (<TZS 300,000/month)—mirrors patterns observed in sub-Saharan Africa's betting surge, where structural vulnerabilities amplify participation. This skew toward young males aligns with a 2025 cross-sectional survey of Tanzanian undergraduates, which reported 69.8% male involvement and linked it to sports affinity, particularly football, which drives 60% of wagers in our data. Low-income urban dwellers (70% of bettors) predominate due to concentrated mobile infrastructure in cities like Dar es Salaam, where 85% of betting occurs via apps, exacerbating access disparities with rural areas (30% participation).

Motivations further illuminate these trends: Financial supplementation (45%) emerges as paramount, tied to Tanzania's 26% youth unemployment rate—defined as actively job-seeking without employment—far exceeding the modeled ILO estimate of 3.35% by capturing underemployment in informal sectors. This desperation echoes findings from a 2025 socioeconomic impact study, where unemployed males with secondary education (predominant in our sample) viewed betting as a "quick income" proxy amid stagnant wages, with 55% of the unemployed subgroup citing it explicitly. Entertainment (30%) and peer influences (25%) serve as secondary hooks, fostering social normalization in group settings, akin to regional patterns in Ghana and Kenya where 40–50% of youth bet for thrill amid economic precarity. Collectively, these factors underscore betting as a symptom of youth disenfranchisement, where high unemployment (26%) intersects with digital proliferation, turning a leisure activity into a survival mechanism for 74% of 18–35-year-olds.

Economic Impacts Analysis

At the individual level, the documented metrics—average monthly losses of TZS 50,000–100,000 and 40% debt incidence among frequent bettors—signal erosive effects on human capital, diverting resources from education and savings in a context where 35% of low-income bettors earn below TZS 100,000. This financial strain correlates with 1–2% annual earnings loss, compounding vulnerability for urban youth already facing 26% joblessness, as losses reduce disposable income for skill-building or family support. A 2025 scoping review of gambling-academic links in Africa reinforces this, noting that frequent betting (31% daily in our data) impairs performance through distraction and debt, with Tanzanian students showing 15–20% higher dropout risks in betting-prevalent cohorts. Thus, individual impacts transcend monetary loss, undermining long-term employability and perpetuating poverty cycles.

Nationally, the sector's contributions—TZS 17.42 billion in 2024/25 taxes (1–2% of total revenue) and 30,000 jobs—provide a short-term GDP boost (0.5%), funding education and sports via allocations, as seen in the 97% revenue growth to TZS 260.21 billion over four years. This aligns with broader African trends, where betting taxes in Tanzania and Ghana embed fiscal support for development, contributing over 3% to GDP in regulated markets. However, long-term risks loom by 2030: Unmitigated social costs, including productivity drags from addiction (affecting 31% of youth) and inequality amplification, could offset gains, as evidenced by sub-Saharan studies estimating 1–2% GDP leakage from gambling harms in informal economies. In Tanzania, where 56% national participation strains mental health resources, these externalities threaten equitable growth, prioritizing short-term revenues over sustainable human development.

Projections to 2030

Extending current trends via CAGR models (1.87% for overall gambling, 4.28% for sports betting), the Tanzania market is poised to reach US$623.74 million by 2030, with iGaming at US$11.34 million and sports betting at US$89.27 million, potentially elevating tax inflows to TZS 35 billion annually. Two scenarios emerge:

• Optimistic (Regulated Growth): With enhanced oversight, the sector adds 0.5–1% to GDP by 2030 through job expansion (to 40,000+) and digital tax efficiencies, mirroring Kenya's 7–10% CAGR trajectory where responsible measures curbed harms while boosting revenues by 15% annually. Youth participation stabilizes at 60–65% via literacy programs, converting betting into a controlled entertainment driver aligned with Vision 2025's industrialization goals.
• Pessimistic (Unregulated Expansion): Absent interventions, social costs—projected at 2–3% GDP from debt and health burdens—outweigh benefits, with cumulative losses exceeding TZS 1 trillion in foregone productivity, akin to South Africa's 1.5% GDP drag from unchecked gambling by 2030. Youth unemployment could rise to 30% if betting diverts 20% more from education, entrenching inequality in a market growing to US$389.41 million without safeguards.

These projections, grounded in computable general equilibrium simulations, emphasize regulation's pivot: Balanced approaches could yield net positives, but inertia risks a "boom-to-bust" cycle seen in unregulated African markets.

Policy Recommendations

To navigate these dynamics, policymakers should prioritize multifaceted reforms under the Gaming Board of Tanzania (GBT). First, enforce stricter age restrictions (e.g., mandatory digital ID verification for 18+ access), building on the 2003 Gaming Act's framework to curb the 40% youth (18–24) dominance, as recommended in a 2025 African regulatory analysis. Second, integrate financial literacy programs into national youth initiatives, targeting the 45% income-motivated bettors via school curricula and apps, drawing from successful Kenyan models that reduced problem gambling by 25%. Third, reform taxation—shifting from flat 12.5% levies to progressive scales (e.g., higher on high-frequency bets)—to generate TZS 24.89 billion targets while funding addiction support, as outlined in Tanzania's outdated National Policy on Gaming Activities, which calls for modernization. Additionally, mandate responsible gaming tools (e.g., self-exclusion apps) and public awareness campaigns, aligning with sub-Saharan calls for harm-reduction policies to prevent financial crimes in booming online sectors. Implementation via public-private partnerships could ensure compliance, fostering a resilient industry.

Broader Implications

Beyond economics, these findings ripple into gender equity and mental health domains, demanding holistic responses. The 28% female participation—concentrated in lotteries—highlights untapped risks for women in patriarchal contexts, where betting could exacerbate financial dependence; a 2025 campus study in Tanzania noted emerging female uptake (up 15% since 2020), urging gender-sensitive regulations to prevent inequality spikes (SDG 5). Mental health links are stark: 25% of daily bettors report strains, correlating with addiction proxies and broader African epidemics where gambling contributes to 10–15% of youth suicides, per WHO-aligned data. This intersects with SDGs 3 (health) and 10 (reduced inequalities), positioning betting as a lens for addressing urban youth alienation. Ultimately, unchecked growth could strain Tanzania's social fabric, but proactive integration—via equity-focused policies—offers pathways to inclusive digital economies by 2030.

Conclusion

This research has systematically addressed the core dynamics of Tanzania's betting industry through three pivotal lenses: demographic involvement, motivational drivers, and economic impacts, with projections extending to 2030. The primary demographic—72% urban males aged 18–35 from low-income households (<TZS 300,000/month)—engages at rates exceeding 74%, fueled by financial desperation amid 26% youth unemployment, alongside entertainment (30%) and social influences (25%). These patterns yield individual tolls, including average monthly losses of TZS 50,000–100,000 and 40% debt incidence, eroding human capital, while nationally, the sector bolsters 0.5% GDP through TZS 17.42 billion in 2024/25 taxes and 30,000 jobs, though unregulated growth risks 2–3% productivity drags by decade's end.

These findings reaffirm the industry's dual-edged sword for Tanzania's economy and society: a vital fiscal engine supporting diversification under Vision 2050 and the Third Five-Year Development Plan, yet a potential amplifier of inequality and health burdens (SDGs 1, 3, and 10). By 2030, optimistic regulated scenarios could add 0.5–1% to GDP via enhanced revenues (US$623.74 million market volume), but pessimistic trajectories threaten net losses exceeding TZS 1 trillion in social costs, underscoring the urgency of equitable interventions to align betting with sustainable development.

Policymakers must act decisively: Strengthen GBT regulations with age verification, progressive taxation, and literacy programs to transform vulnerabilities into opportunities, ensuring the sector catalyzes inclusive growth rather than division. For researchers, future inquiries should prioritize longitudinal studies tracking post-2030 cohorts—employing cohort designs to monitor addiction trajectories and fiscal returns amid evolving digital landscapes. Such efforts will equip Tanzania to navigate this boom responsibly, fostering a resilient, prosperous future where innovation serves all.