By Dr. Bravious Kahyoza, PhD, Senior Economist at TICGL

As Tanzania moves from Vision 2025 to Vision 2050, the nation stands at a pivotal moment of opportunity and challenge. Vision 2025 aimed to transform Tanzania into a middle-income country with a competitive economy, improved infrastructure, and enhanced governance. While significant progress was made, the goals of poverty reduction and equitable development were not fully realized.

Vision 2050 presents a bolder and more expansive strategy, focusing on industrialization, infrastructure development, and social inclusion. Achieving these ambitious targets will require addressing the shortcomings of Vision 2025, with a particular emphasis on leveraging Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) more effectively.

Challenges and Lessons from Vision 2025

One of the major shortcomings of Vision 2025 was the limited impact on poverty reduction despite steady economic growth. Tanzania's GDP growth averaged 6% annually, yet by the end of the period, 26.4% of the population still lived below the poverty line.

This disparity highlights a critical issue: economic growth alone does not automatically translate into improved living standards. The limited involvement of the private sector in rural development further exacerbated inequalities, as much of the population remains dependent on agriculture, which continues to suffer from underinvestment and outdated practices.

PPPs, identified as a key avenue for development under Vision 2025, did not always deliver the expected impact. Large-scale infrastructure projects, such as the expansion of the Dar es Salaam Port and the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project, contributed to national development but primarily benefited urban centers.

These initiatives failed to directly address rural poverty, particularly in agriculture, which remains the backbone of Tanzania's economy. The lack of strategic PPPs in agriculture meant that smallholder farmers had limited access to modern technologies, irrigation systems, and financial services that could have improved productivity and livelihoods.

Vision 2050: A More Strategic Approach to PPPs

Looking ahead, Vision 2050 sets even more ambitious goals, aiming for Tanzania to become an upper-middle-income country with a GDP exceeding USD $1 trillion and per capita income of USD 8,600. Achieving these targets requires a more effective and strategic approach to PPPs. Industrialization is a central pillar of Vision 2050, with a focus on agriculture, manufacturing, and energy. Economic metrics show that Tanzania's future will be defined by its ability to industrialize while ensuring inclusive and equitable growth. This will necessitate a thriving private sector capable of supporting this ambitious agenda.

Economic analysts argue that Tanzania cannot achieve upper-middle-income status without fostering a robust private sector. A strong private sector is the foundation of industrialization, and the government must create an environment conducive to private investment. This includes improving infrastructure, ensuring a predictable regulatory framework, and expanding access to finance.

However, challenges such as inconsistent policy enforcement, limited capital access, and insufficient technical skills continue to hinder private sector growth. Overcoming these barriers will be critical for realizing Vision 2050.

Enhancing PPPs for Sustainable Development

The role of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Vision 2050 extends beyond financial investments. The focus must shift toward an integrated approach where the private sector actively participates in key sectors such as education, healthcare, and agriculture.

Vision 2050 aims for universal access to healthcare, requiring significant investments in infrastructure, human capital, and service delivery. PPPs can play a vital role by facilitating the development of hospitals, rural health centers, and affordable healthcare solutions.

Addressing skill gaps through PPP-supported vocational training programs will be essential in aligning the workforce with industrial and technological demands. A well-educated and skilled population is fundamental to Tanzania’s industrialization goals.

Given that agriculture employs over 70% of the population, integrating modern farming techniques and irrigation systems through PPPs can significantly boost productivity. As noted by Professor Damian Gabagambi, transforming Tanzania into a global food production leader requires both technological investments and policy reforms to support smallholder farmers.

Addressing Energy and Infrastructure Challenges

Energy remains a major bottleneck to economic growth. Tanzania's per capita energy consumption is currently around 100 kWh, far below the African average. Vision 2050 aims to increase this to 600 kWh per capita, which will require substantial investments in renewable energy, grid expansion, and energy efficiency projects. The private sector has a crucial role in scaling up energy production, distribution, and innovative solutions such as off-grid renewable energy projects. While initiatives like the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant are promising, a broader strategy is needed to fully harness Tanzania’s renewable energy potential.

Additionally, investments in transport infrastructure will be necessary to support economic expansion. Upgrading roads, railways, and ports through well-structured PPPs will enhance logistics, reduce production costs, and improve Tanzania’s competitiveness as a regional trade hub.

Global Lessons and Best Practices

Tanzania can draw valuable lessons from global success stories. China's rapid industrialization, with sustained annual growth rates of 10% between 1978 and 2008, was driven by infrastructure investments, technology adoption, and effective economic policies. Similarly, Botswana’s economic transformation, largely fueled by strategic resource management and political stability, highlights the importance of long-term planning and institutional reforms. While Tanzania’s context differs, these examples offer insights into the strategic investments required for sustainable growth.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead

Vision 2050 presents a roadmap for a prosperous, industrialized, and equitable Tanzania. However, its success will hinge on the country's ability to harness the full potential of the private sector, particularly through well-structured PPPs. The challenges of poverty, infrastructure, and energy shortages cannot be addressed by the government alone. Strategic collaboration with private investors is essential to drive innovation, expand economic opportunities, and create a resilient economy.

While Vision 2025 laid the groundwork for growth, it also underscored the need for a more inclusive and strategic approach. Vision 2050 represents an opportunity to correct past shortcomings by fostering a more conducive investment environment, adopting new technologies, and making bold, transformative investments in key sectors. If Tanzania can successfully implement these strategies, the vision of a thriving, upper-middle-income nation by 2050 can become a reality.